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Yu Darvish E-Ticket Article

I always enjoy ESPN's in-depth E-ticket articles.  Jim Caple's piece on Yu Darvish is no exception.  In case you hadn't heard, Darvish is the Next Big Thing in Japan.  He's a 21 year-old ace pitcher.  A few highlights from the article:

  • The commonly kicked-around posting fee for Darvish is $75MM.  Remember, everyone thought Dice-K would require $25-30MM and the fee ended up being $51.1MM.  If Darvish received Dice-K's six-year, $52MM deal and required an $80MM posting fee, he'd cost $22MM a year.
  • Darvish's team, the Nippon Ham Fighters, didn't allow Caple to ask about the MLB possibility.  But the team's GM has said that he'd probably post a player who requested it.
  • Does Darvish want to come to MLB?  Opinions run the gamut on that question.  A posting this winter is possible but far from certain.
  • Darvish's father seems to want him to play in New York or Boston, if he comes to MLB.


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Comments

Man I feel bad for the American born players now. If you were born in Japan you could be 21 and on your way to making a buttload. While you only get a few mil if you are drafted.

They really need international drafting.

I'm surprised the Red Sox are being pushed as big suitors this year. I'd imagine the Yanks would easily outbid them after freeing up payroll

I really can't see $22M per for a 21 year old pitcher who's never pitched in MLB.

Matsuzaka was an -ACE- in Japan. He's a solid, good pitcher over here, but #2 ceiling, #3 at the moment (unless he can cut down those BBs and pitch more than 5 IP a start, that's all he is).

Igawa a solid, good pitcher in Japan. He's not even a good AAA arm in the US.

New York seems to be a where all Japanese pitchers go die. After the Igawa flop I wonder if Cashman really has the stomach to bid top dollar.

My guess is that Cashman would rather grab a proven pitcher like C.C. Sabathia than spend 80 million on another hit or miss phenom.

Two other points:
1. Darvish seems to have a rock star quality that non of the Japanese players before him have had. So while there was increased revenue with Nomo, Matsui, Matsuzaka, etc, Darvish could fly past all of them.
2. If that doesn't scream "Hank", nothing does.

Including the posting and contract Daisuke got, he costs around 17 mil a year before he ever threw a pitch in the ML. So spending roughly 22 mil on Yu is far more realistic than you may think. Darvish is six and a half feet of pure nastiness.

I don't see him coming over for maybe a couple more years. He's doing his rock star thing in Japan right now and enjoying it.

Man oh man! what will it take to allow some of these other teams to get some premium foreign talet? If I'm remembering correctly the only extremely talented Japenese players ended up in either of the New Yorks or Boston. I can't think of any others. It doesn't seem fair to these other teams. Not only do they loose out in free-agency but in the Foreign expansion too?

Ichiro to Seattle, Kuroda to LA, Fukudome to the cubs, Rays tried their hand on the closer but he was a bust if ever there was one. plenty of teams get the foreign talent.

alright celtics you know what I mean. The big market teams get to buy all the talent they need but these other teams can't.

P.S. Only Ichiro has actually panned out. The others are still in their first season.

1. Ichiro was posted

2. Kuroda and Fukudome were both free agents and look to both be slotting into the roles they were signed for

3. The smaller market clubs could easily afford the free agents, but they usually prefer the large cities. The smaller market clubs need to make more of an effort to sell their cities.

On Fukudome - In retrospect, it would have been a hell of a deal for the Dodgers to pick him up instead of Jones. Cheaper, much more productive and it would allow Kemp to play CF where he belongs.

Ari,
Nomo, Saito, Haseqawa, Matsui(Kaz), Sasaki, Iguchi, Taguchi.

Seriously, I'm not just randomly punching keys. They are all Japanese players who came over and didn't play in the only 2 cities in America. I don't know what kind of pan you cook in, but they were and are pretty good MLB players. For the overall numbers of Japanese players to come over, they are probably the safest bet for success of any country.

baseballcube.com has both Darvish and Matsuzaka's stats -- Darvish at 21 has already had a better season then Dice-K ever did. So if he gets posted in the next few seasons, he'll be better and younger (and also without the wear on his are that DiceK has) so why wouldn't he get significantly more then Dice-K?

benjoua - I don't quite get what you are saying?

Saito has only played for one team, the Dodgers, in his career. The rest, save Iguchi and maybe Taguchi, moved around because they were ineffective at some point.

I think that you are debating whether the players I listed are actually good. If I am right about that answering your question is probably a waste of time but its not like I have anything better to do.

Ari said that Ichiro is the only Japanese player who “panned out” that didn’t play in NY or Boston. I don’t agree with that statement and listed off the top of my head a bunch of Japanese players who have had successful careers in the MLB outside of those cities. I listed Kaz Matsui and he did play in NY so I blew that one.

It is pretty easy to name players who haven’t had good seasons. Mike Schmidt hit 198 for an entire season. Should we be on the phone with the Cooperstown police? Curt Schilling was traded twice by the time he got to Philly and went 2-8 in 94. Am I supposed to believe that he wasn’t good. It seems like you may be a LAD fan so here’s one for you, Koufax pitched 4 full seasons and parts of 2 others before he had success. I guess the Hall blew that one too. Jim Edmonds, Mark McGwire all guys who had bad seasons. That doesn’t make you a bad player. Seriously, that took less than two minutes this website doesn’t have the capacity to list every good player who had a bad season because almost every player who ever played fits that bill.

Iguchi played well for a WS champion and was a key contributor for a Division winner last year. That is panning out. The fact that he hasn’t won an MVP or the 5 year waiting period isn’t getting waived doesn’t change that. Taguchi was a key contributor for a WS champion and has played in the Series twice. He’s a 280 career hitter and he 700 years old. He is a good player.

Rather than defend every player on that list, I’d like for someone to actually look the players up. The only way they don’t pan out is if fans or GMs had idiotic expectations.

benjoua - I think you misunderstood my point. All those guys were/are good at some point in their career. Nomo had 4 excellent seasons and 4 more acceptable ones. I wasn't saying that any of them were bad players. Igawa and Irabu are the only 2 who were truly bad, and Irabu had 1 acceptable season. Even Shinjo played ok, especially considering how cheap he was.

I think the issue is with Ari's post about the extreme talents only ending up in New York or Boston, which is, of course, not true if anyone has ever taken a look at Ichiro's career. Still, the big posting guys do tend to go to the richer teams on simple economics. Kansas City isn't going to spend that kind of money on anyone.

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