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Rauch Ramifications

Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic has an article today about the implications of the Diamondbacks' acquisition of reliever Jon Rauch.

  • The loss of second baseman Emilio Bonifacio doesn't exactly change the D'Back's plans, as they were skeptical on his ability to become a regular anyway.  Still, people are asking whether they'll try to re-sign Orlando Hudson.  Piecoro says Hudson is expected to test the free agent market, and doesn't seem likely to offer a discount.  His salary should exceed $10MM.
  • If Hudson leaves, the D'Backs could either look for a new second baseman or shift Mark Reynolds over there and consider a third baseman.  Take a look at the free agent market - options are limited at both positions.  Perhaps a trade could be explored.
  • Closer Brandon Lyon is a free agent after the season as well, and seems likely to leave.  The D'Backs have plenty of in-house replacement options, starting with Rauch.  Lyon will join free agent closers such as Brian Fuentes, Trevor Hoffman, Francisco Rodriguez, and Kerry Wood.  It's easy to see Hoffman and Wood staying put, leaving three solid options.
  • Piecoro talked to team officials who downplayed the recent Mark Teixeira rumblings.


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I don't watch the DBacks regularly, but when I DO see them, Reynolds is quite a butcher at 3B. Would moving him to 2B make sense?

It would if it allows them to get Chad Tracy back in at 3B. Think of Reynolds as the next Jeff Kent or Dan Uggla.

Gotcha. Since they're the team that let Uggla go he's an excellent analogy. Thanks oxfrat.

I have often wondered if The Tigers would try to deal Polanco in the off-season and give Mike Hollimon a shot at 2B. I wonder if there's a fit there with the D-Backs.

I'd keep Reynolds at third. Yes, he makes some errors but he made great plays as well. He's still young. He'll improve in the field. I thought for sure Bonifacio would be the next second baseman for the D-Backs, giving them a speedy leadoff man they don't have. But Hudson is loved here & I could picture him taking less money to stay. Lyon is the last link to the Schilling trade & the D-Backs put years into this guy. Rauch, Pena & Quallis can close. I'd love to see K-Rod come aboard but the D-Backs aren't going to sink big money into a pitcher for awhile since the Russ Ortiz disaster.

The D-Backs have Chris Burke as an in-house option at 2B.

The Dbacks also have Ojeda who plays the infield. Their problem isn't going to be the infield or pitching. It's going to be hitting. Tony Clark is a great guy and clubhouse leader, but he isn't the answer to their hitting woes. They need to trade for someone like Dunn, Bay, Teixeira, or even Ibanez.

Tim- not sure why you think Wood will stay a Cub. They will add 20 million dollars in payroll before arbitration and any other signings. I don't think they'll go and sign Wood and end up increasing payroll 30 mil next year.

Just from what I know of Wood and Jim Hendry, they have a great relationship. Wood signed for less this year to stay with the Cubs, perhaps because he felt indebted for past injury-plagued seasons. Plus he has his family and charity stuff rooted in Chicago. I would be surprised if he's not with the Cubs next year.

deeco - I think the only player that is arb eligible next year is Cotts and doubt he will get any kind of major raise. Wood should hit a good chunk of incentives so this year will cost the cubs about $6.5 million. I can see a 3 yr $24 mil coming his way - all of a araise of $1.5. Also Howry, lieber, eyre do come off the books saving $10 mil - not sure if that is part of $20 mil increase or not ( I think the $20 is just raises due signed players ). So Wood should be coming back, IMO

"It would if it allows them to get Chad Tracy back in at 3B. Think of Reynolds as the next Jeff Kent or Dan Uggla."

I like the move, but I think Reynolds would probably play better defense at 2B than Kent or Uggla.

They should definitely trade for Teixeira. Wouldn't have to give up a whole lot since he's a rental.

I can't recall because it was a while ago I looked at their payroll, but I'm pretty sure its 20 mil raise before arbitration, and after losing the contracts that they currently have.

Soriano, Zambrano, ARam, Lilly, Fukudome, Marquis, Harden. They'll have at least 1 hole in the rotation with Dempster (probably give it to Marshall) and a hole in CF (not really any good options there unless they go with Pie), and several spots in the bullpen. I don't believe the Cubs really have any answers in the minor leagues for those spots either.

So to resign Wood, then try and fill those spots, thats a huge payroll jump for the new owner to take on.

Maybe if Wood gives another discount, it will still be a much better contract than this one. I'd personally expect him to get a real good offer somewhere else, which would be real hard to turn down.

The Cubs kinda shot themselves in the foot with the contract situation because their all backloaded. New owners are going to have to pony up if they're going to improve that team.

Those players in the first sentence of the second paragraph of my last post are due raises...forgot to include that...

This is unfathomable, perhaps, but I would love to see the DBacks turn around and trade Lyon. He's likely to be a Type B free agent, and they're almost guaranteed to get more for him then they paid for Rauch.

The Rockies and Pirates have got to be PISSED at Jim Bowden for accepting a mid-tier prospect for Rauch. All of a sudden, Marte and Fuentes are worth half of what demands have been.

Well done, Josh Byrnes.

"The Rockies and Pirates have got to be PISSED at Jim Bowden for accepting a mid-tier prospect for Rauch. All of a sudden, Marte and Fuentes are worth half of what demands have been."

But isn't that only the case if you believe that their worth was ever as high as what thier teams were asking for them? Since neither of them had moved I don't see how thier values actually dropped.

If I have a house for sale and want 250K and my neighbors house which is exactly like mine sells for 200K, it doesn't mean my house is now worth 50K less. It means I had it overvalued compared to the market.

Bowden goes from requesting Lowrie + Bowden from the Red Sox to settling for Bonifacio


"But isn't that only the case if you believe that their worth was ever as high as what thier teams were asking for them? Since neither of them had moved I don't see how thier values actually dropped."

Their value is determined in part by what other similar players bring back in trades. If Rauch had gone for two top prospects, Marte's value on the trade market just rose. If he went for a bag of balls, Marte's value just declined.

Market price/value goes hand in hand with the price of substitutable goods.

"If I have a house for sale and want 250K and my neighbors house which is exactly like mine sells for 200K, it doesn't mean my house is now worth 50K less. It means I had it overvalued compared to the market."

That's potentially true, but it depends on the circumstances. If your neighbor was desperate to sell, or it was in his/her better interests to move the property fast rather than wait for the best offer, it is still going to make its mark on other potential sale prices in the neighborhood, even if your asking price was reasonable to begin with.

I am not saying anything about the sensibility of the Pirates or Rockies in their initial asking prices. I am also not trying to speculate about Jim Bowden's motivations for taking less than market value for Rauch. It's just something to think about.

It wasn't too long ago that Bowden landed Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez for a broken RH reliever, and unproven LH reliever and Triple-A roster fill, setting the market bullpen help in the other direction.

I think he's an impetuous, impulsive idiot, and needs to be shown the door ... fast.

"This is unfathomable, perhaps, but I would love to see the DBacks turn around and trade Lyon."

Anything is possible; they traded Valverde after he led the majors in saves. Lyon really flies under the radar. He's obviously not in K-Rod's league but definately comparable to Fuentes, if not better. Who could use Lyon? And what is he worth?

I don't think that the Rauch deal lowers the price for other relievers. Nobody is forcing these GM's to move these relief pitchers. When one team moves a reliever on the cheap that ultimately means that there is one less reliever available and may actually drive up the price for other teams.

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