Rosenthal's Latest: Ibanez, Ohman, Fuentes

Which is a worse organization, the Mariners or Astros? I want to say Astros, only because at least the Mariners appear able to draft, but damn, horribly owners and GMs will kill any team, lol.

The Braves could have had Tracey and Owings instead of Kotchman and Marek? And they chose Kotchman and Marek?

Now, I understand that Kotchman is a ton more valuable than Tracey. Younger, more power, under control for longer, etc. But has anyone looked at this Marek kid's numbers? He's been unspectacular in AA ball with little signs of promise.

I just don't get it. The Braves settled for less than what they could have gotten and it makes no sense.

Aaron,

You obviously didn't bother looking at his numbers for very long. The kid is averaging 11 K/9, which to me shows a lot of promise. If you check out the scouting report on him, he has a low 90's fastball with a plus curveball.

Besides, how does Micah Owings even begin to make up for the difference between Kotchman and Tracy? He's already in his 2nd full season in the bigs (meaning 2 fewer years the Braves control him), sports an ERA just south of 6, lost his spot in the starting rotation, and was just sent down to the minors.

I think pretty much everyone knew the Tracy and Owings package was on the table, and I think pretty much all Braves fans agree that we chose the better package.

I did take a look at his number beyond just this season. Admittedly, I missed the K/9 ratio for this current season.

I mainly saw the unimpressive record, the average ERA, and the fact that he was moved from starter to reliever because he wasn't an effective starter. His career line is 11-19, 3.53 ERA, 397 IP, 351 K.

To me, that just isn't very impressive for a 25 year old in AA ball. Sure, there probably is something in the scouting report that builds his value higher and while that is all well and good, I still think the Braves were shortchanged.

nixa said is right on. What you think we can get for Ohman if we shipped him to the Rays.

Check that, his record is 23-24. I double checked that stat because the site I was looking at was seemingly missing his W/L record for 06.

"Admittedly, I missed the K/9 ratio for this current season.

I mainly saw the unimpressive record"

Who cares about a minor-league prospects win-loss record?

If you skipped the K/9 and went straight for the W/L when conducting your analysis, you don't know very much about projecting minor-league pitching.

There is a difference between missing a statistic at first glance and ignoring one. So hold off on the personal attacks and accusations that I "don't know very much about projecting minor-league pitching."

Also, to project minor-league pitchers don't you need to evaluate more than just the current season. His career K/9 ratio is 7.94. The 10.99 ratio he's got this year is an aberration.

Of course, I'm a Braves fan who isn't all that high on Marek – but mostly because of his age (24), BB-rate (2.98 BB/9 for his career; 4.05 BB/9 in 2008), and the fact that he is a relief prospect at this point (when the Braves very much needed young starting pitching).

Still, he could always be converted back to SP . . .

"Also, to project minor-league pitchers don't you need to evaluate more than just the current season."

Yes, one should; moreover, I do.

But one thing that is next-to-meaningless is this kid's minor-league won-loss record. It just isn't a useful or projectable metric.

Is Edwin Jackson too much for Ohman ? Sounds like somthing the braves would be very interested in.

I don't know much about stat analysis, but all I know is that every time Owings has faced the Braves, he's been spectacular. He looks untouchable. So when I hear that the Braves could have had Owings, it does disappoint me.

I am looking forward to watching Kotchman play, though.

Aaron,

I think its pretty obvious that his K-rate has spiked precisely because he has moved from a starting to relieving role. According to reports, he struggled as a starter because he doesn't have a consistent release point, isn't great tactically, and has a below average 3rd pitch. As a reliever none of those weaknesses are nearly as important. For everyone who is so down on Marek, remember that he was the Angel's 6th rated prospect according to BP coming into the season.

For anyone interested, here's Baseball America's breakdown of the trade...

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/majors/trade-central/2008/266604.html

How about Owings for Ohman ?

I would do Owings for Ohman in a second.

Me too.

Joelcards,

Sure Owings looked pretty good though 10 starts, but many pitchers look great over short time spans. Even during that streak he gave up 5+ twice, and as soon as it ended he gave up 6 in 6.1, 4 in 3, 4 in 4.1, and 7 in 5.1. Now that we get to 15 starts his ERA is over 5 and 7 of his 15 starts have been bad. There's a good reason the Dbacks sent Owings down to AAA yesterday.

The Braves really wouldn't have been buying low on him either. He would be the main piece they were receiving back in a deal for Tex. They're paying the Dbacks as if he's still a strong prospect. The other thing to keep in mind is that the Braves get 1-2 more years of Kotchman than they would have gotten from Tracy and they get 2 more years of Marek than they would have gotten from Owings.

Rosenthal is making way too much out of the "issues" the Angels have. Vlad and Figgy will get picked up for next year and I am sure Vlad will get another 3 years or so at some point in the not too distant future. I see them also making overtures to Figgins, part of which is probably the fact that they hired his brother to scout for them. I also see them trying to hammer out a Peavy-esque deal with Lackey, which would make sense for both pitcher and team.

I don't think they pick GA up for $14 million, but I can see them bringing him back for less money.

I think Garland gets dumped, they make a push for K-Rod and they are one of the few teams that can actually think about resigning Tex. Boras does seem to be more willing acquiesce to the needs of the two L.A. teams (short term/big money for Jones, slightly below market for Lowe) than any other clubs.