Rosenthal's Latest: Holliday, Burnett, Rauch, Ibanez

I can see the dodgers actually getting it done for holliday. They have the money to sign him long term. They need power. Kemp would be the starting point but what else would they need at least one more a-level guy.

the red sox for holliday? that makes no sense at all unless they dont intend to pick up the option on manny.

seems more like just throwing big names out there to big teams to create buzz.

"the red sox for holliday? that makes no sense at all unless they dont intend to pick up the option on manny."

That would be the point. Holliday is 28, Manny is 36. Holliday will also probably cost the same 20M. My real issue with Holliday is his slugging drops 200 points away from Coors, of course a hitters park like Boston could keep his numbers high. Though the trade would be costly.

start_wearing_purple, you're right. Has no one ever looked at Holliday's home/away splits? He's hit .277/.341/.450 with only 39 HR in 1190 AB outside of Coors. Anyone who trades for him is going to get a pretty average OF. I pray that Red Sox rumor is false.

The only way the sox will do this trade is if Ortiz is out for the season.

Agreed Holliday looks like the typical inflated coors field hitter. Big buyer beware sign on this guy. Hopefully the Sox don't bite. Having said that if a younger big time hitter does become available this year or in the offseason it should surprise nobody that the Sox don't pick up Manny's option and spend that money elsewhere. I just hope it isn't Holliday.

Say what you will about Matt Holliday's stats away from Coors Field, he's still an upgrade over any Dodger OF. If Takashi Saito was seriously injured last night, maybe the Dodgers should talk about a Holliday/Fuentes package. Obviously it would take a lot for the Dodgers to get something like that done. Frankly, I think Frank McCourt has lost all confidence in Ned Colletti. The payroll is too high for a team 4 games under .500, and I think the McCourts are scared to take on more payroll. There is too much money coming off the books this offseason, and they have to realize they probably aren't gonna win with this group of players.

I'd be scared if I was the McCourt's as well.

Then again, I wouldn't work for an owner like the McCourt's to begin with.

The Dodgers are just a mess right now and they are wasting valuable time. These kids are cheap and they better take advantage of them now. If it takes a few years to get things sorted most of their core will be in their arb years or approaching FA.

Over the past 3 1/2 years, Holliday's Road OPS has trended upward: .729, .818, .859, .872.

Fenway's Ballpark Factor is 1.097 runs this year to Coors Field's 1.180. Combine Fenway's own dimensions with the fact that Holliday appears to be entering his prime, and he the projections show him as anything-but-average.

1.100 OPS guy? No.

Worth $18-20M per + prospects? Probably not.

But definitely not average, and definitely worth considering going forward.

"But definitely not average, and definitely worth considering going forward."

I may have misspoke, I didn't mean to imply Holliday is simply average on the road, he still is a scary bat. But he'll be sold by the Rockies management and Boras as a baseball god. In other words, I think his price tag will cost more than his worth.

start_wearing_purple,

I didn't interpret your comments to suggest that Holliday was average. It was the poster below who said the team trading for him would be getting a "pretty average OF."

I agree with both of you to the extent that, for the price tag, you want the Coors Holliday for 162 games, and not the 81/81 Holliday. I just want to note that his Road OPS has steadily risen over the past few years. Given his age, the trend is worth considering in assessing his value. His Road OPS alone this year would still be good for 38th in baseball, ahead of Longoria and Ordonez, and not far behind Braun and D. Lee.

I don't think Holliday will be able to match Manny's production of old, but a 28-year-old Holliday compares favorably with the 36-year-old incarnation of Manny. Holliday doesn't seem to be worth $20M per year (who is, really?), but young, high-OBP corner outfielders with pop don't grow on trees in the post-steroid era, so he carries a premium for a big-market team looking to avoid a huge dropoff in production when the time comes for a changing of the guard.

"I may have misspoke, I didn't mean to imply Holliday is simply average on the road, he still is a scary bat. But he'll be sold by the Rockies management and Boras as a baseball god. In other words, I think his price tag will cost more than his worth."

And here lies the exact problem in a Holliday trade. Because his home/road splits are so pronounced, his value is extremely different to different teams. To the Rockies, he's an MVP-caliber middle of the order bat, but to essentially every other team, he's simply a very good middle of the order bat. The trade value differences between those two players is very large, it'd be like say, the talent gap between Alex Rodriguez and Aramis Ramirez.

The Dodgers need a power hitter. Why not trade for Holliday. Maybe if Ned would take his head out of his as$ he would notice that. They are not over .500 and they are not going to win the division over the D-Backs. I am a huge Dodger fan but the truth hurts. We need a power hitter and we have the people to trade for one.

i know the holliday stats r inflated but i still think hes an excellent player. i think hes very similar to jason bay. i wouls bet if they switched ballparks the numbers would switch as well. my point on that is that i think they r both excellent players.

and for dodgers fans, the day that stupid ownership/gm group makes a good decision will be a cold one. all that money and young talent yet no chemistry, heart, or any intangible to speak of. it is los angeles so maybe they can act like they will make the playoffs.

@ Bleed-thinkblue

>> The Dodgers need a power hitter. Why not trade for Holliday.

Because the Rockies won't trade Holliday anywhere inside the division. The Dodgers play the Rockies 18 times a year, meaning the Rockies pitching staff would be facing Holliday 18 times a year, 9 of those times being at Coors Field. If and when Holliday goes anywhere, it's definitely not going to be anywhere in the NL West, and, hopefully, nowhere in the NL. If I really have to see Holliday go, I want him in an AL uniform, so that the Rockies only see him for 3 games every 3 years.

"Say what you will about Matt Holliday's stats away from Coors Field, he's still an upgrade over any Dodger OF."

"The Dodgers need a power hitter. Why not trade for Holliday."

"Because the Rockies won't trade Holliday anywhere inside the division."

For those who think Holliday would be a good thing for the Dodgers, or would be an upgrade over anyone not named Andruw Jones (and leave Pierre out of this because of their very different qualities), you should probably look at these numbers.

.234 .299 .363

Those are his BA, OBP and SLG at Dodger Stadium, where he would play 81 games a year, which are only slightly better than these:

.214 .272 .386

...which are his numbers at PETCO where he will play 9 games a year.

Meanwhile, here are Andre Ethier's at Dodger Stadium:

.291 .355 .468

Damn near dead on his career numbers.

And here are Matt Kemp's:

.293 .330 .500

He actually slugs better, with only slight hits on average and OBP.

Oh, and here is something really sad. Take a look at Juan Pierre's numbers:

.290 .338 .336

Now, looking at SLG for him is a little unfair, given that his SB rate adds another 60 bases or so a year, not to mention his general base running ability, but his OPS alone at Dodger Stadium makes Holliday's look bad.

And lets not forget, Kemp and Ethier both have FAR superior gloves to Holliday in every way possible. Pierre has a weaker arm, but has a much surer glove and ability to read the ball as well. Not to mention that Holliday is pretty much limited to LF.

"There is too much money coming off the books this offseason, and they have to realize they probably aren't gonna win with this group of players."

Funny, considering that they are only 1 game out of first, despite losing their second best overall player, and their best player for the first month and a half of the season for the year.