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Newsday's Ken Davidoff has an interesting take on the Yankees' chances of signing CC Sabathia this winter. He finds the Yankees an unlikely match for the big lefty, for a couple of reasons.
By Davidoff's estimate, the Yankees will have over $60MM off the books for '09 even if they bring back Jason Giambi and Andy Pettitte. Breaking off a third of that for Sabathia wouldn't seem to be an issue, but that does not seem to be Brian Cashman's preference. Davidoff puts the chances of Cashman re-signing at about 65%, by the way.
The other issue is Sabathia's preference. Sabathia has some talkative friends, because they're always being anonymously quoted. Davidoff talked to "two people familiar with his thinking," who see him choosing the NL and the West Coast. The Dodgers are named as his first choice.
Perhaps the Yankees will sign a decent starting pitcher who does not require a $100MM outlay - Derek Lowe or Ryan Dempster, for example.
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Dempster is most certainly re-signing with the Cubs.
Posted by: Teetz | July 14, 2008 at 11:16 AM
"The Dodgers are named as his first choice."
Do they need another bad contract?
Posted by: icedrake523 | July 14, 2008 at 11:20 AM
I can see C.C. going NL West...
1. He's from the northern part of the state
2. He would choose the NL over the AL so he can hit. The guy would actually get mad if he wasn't scheduled to pitch when the Indians would go to Cincy because he didn't get the chance to hit in that park in a given year. Can you blame him?
Posted by: Mike B. | July 14, 2008 at 11:26 AM
Lowe has been a solid starting pitcher since 2002, pitching ~200 innings a year with an avg ERA around 4. Seasons of 14 and 15 wins almost a decade ago and a good half-season make Dempster on par with Derek Lowe?
Gotta love those cubbie blue colored glasses through which some players are being viewed.
Interesting note, Lowe is only 2 career saves behind Dempster.
Posted by: WhiteSoxFan | July 14, 2008 at 11:35 AM
"Perhaps the Yankees will sign a decent starting pitcher who does not require a $100MM outlay - Derek Lowe or Ryan Dempster, for example."
you can't be serious...why not go backwards for 10mil+ yearly and bring the andy hawkins and eddie whitsons of the world to pitch for the yankee pinstripes once again..
Posted by: beanocookforpresident | July 14, 2008 at 11:36 AM
Yea I'm sure the Yankees are really going to just pass on the best FA pitcher to the market if pretty much ever.
If Sabathia simply doesn't want to play for the Yankees, so be it. However don't expect the Yankees not to make a VERY strong offer (probably the best). Let's keep in mind that they did make a push for him before the Brewers got him and only pulled out because the Indians wouldn't give them a window to negotiate.
If the Yankees do miss out on Sabathia don't expect them to sign the likes of Derek Lowe or Ryan Dempster. Those are exactly the type of moves that have backfired on them in the past. They'll likely sign Ben Sheets instead who is an ace that does come with some injury concern. They'd certainly prefer Sabathia, but I'd be surprised if they didn't sign Sabathia or Sheets.
Also the Yankees have ~86M coming off the books not "over 60M." They'll probably spend in the 60-70M range, but they have more than that coming off the books.
Posted by: primetime714 | July 14, 2008 at 12:04 PM
"Do they need another bad contract?"
Sabathia isn't a bad contract. He has the age, the style and the build to handle the innings. Jones was a bad contract because he blocked better players and was already noticeably on the decline, but lets not forget that Jones is gone after next year. Pierre was really only a slightly bad contract as they slightly overpaid for him in the aftermath of the J.D. Drew situation. The reality is that he should have played left all year last year with Kemp in center and Ethier in right with Gonzo not even being a consideration.
Other than that, only Schmidt is on a bad deal, but he may well come back healthy and would certainly be cheaper to resign if he does.
"Lowe has been a solid starting pitcher since 2002, pitching ~200 innings a year with an avg ERA around 4."
Lowe has been a solid pitcher since Seattle traded him to Boston, both as a closer and a starter. Rubber armed, gutsy and willing to step up when needed. Also, since he has been with the Dodgers, he hasn't had an ERA over 3.85. After that meeting Lowe, Boras and the Dodgers had a few weeks ago, I wonder if they are considering extending him. He may be 35, but all those years closing probably added another 5 effective years to his career.
Posted by: AA | July 14, 2008 at 12:05 PM
Primetime, yeah, the Yankees do have about $86 million in contracts coming off the books, but realistically either Pettitte or Mussina (most likely Pettitte) and either Giambi or Abreu (at this point I'd lean toward Giambi) will be coming back, hence the "at least $60 million" figure. It's kinda pointless to throw around the $86 million figure when you know they're going to resign at least a few of the guys contributing towards it.
Posted by: yanksfan | July 14, 2008 at 12:38 PM
Didn't say Ryan Dempster was on par with Derek Lowe, not at all. They are only linked here by being decent pitchers who do not require $100MM, as I wrote.
As for those who think that the Yankees will never again sign a free agent starter who is not an ace in his prime, I disagree.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | July 14, 2008 at 01:12 PM
I'm curious what people think CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets will command in this FA market?
Thoughts? Years and total $$
Posted by: BeanoCook | July 14, 2008 at 01:26 PM
Yanksfan its far from a certainty that they bring any of those guys back. I agree they probably will bring some of them back, but that still counts as money that they're investing in FA. I mean if we have nearly 60M after re-signing some our FA's investing a 3rd of that remaining amount into one pitcher wouldn't be that big of a deal, but the way it was written suggests we'd be investing a 3rd of all the money we have to spend which isn't really true and even if we do spend 60M in FA, 20M to Sabathia would be a good way to spend a 3rd of it.
Tim Dierkes, you're right that the Yankees will likely sign a non-ace starter at some point however those are exactly the type of signings Cashman would like to avoid if possible because he has been burned by those in the past (Pavano, Wright, Igawa, etc.). That's why he has built up the minor league system with pitchers, so that he won't be forced to fill the bottom of his rotation or even the top for that matter through FA. However if he were to go after another FA pitcher I'd think he would want it to be someone that could anchor his rotation and he wouldn't have to worry much about being a bust. Sabathia would be that type of guy.
Posted by: primetime714 | July 14, 2008 at 01:34 PM
BeanoCook I'd think something like this:
Sabathia- 6 years 20M+ per year
Sheets- 5 years 17M+ per year
This of course depends on what happens in the second half, but I think that's about what you should expect to see if everything goes well for them in the 2nd half.
Posted by: primetime714 | July 14, 2008 at 01:37 PM
I personally think they should just be pleasantly happy with what they got from Giambi and Moose this year and not press their luck. They need to get YOUNGER and put a roster together that can stay together for more than a year.
I see Giambi, Moose, Farns, Pavano and Hawkins coming off...and staying off the books next year. Andy and Abreu...maybe. Depends on other factors. Does Andy want to pitch another year...and will he be the REAL Andy or the BP pitcher we've seen at parts this year. Abreu? His defense makes me wanna toss the remote thru the TV. If they make a trade for say, Nady...he's gone. If not, maybe a one-year deal.
Lowe? If you can get him on a 2 year deal, maybe. Dempster? No thanx. He has Pavano redueux written all over him. Sheets? If he had a warranty, I'd take him over CC.
Posted by: jjyankeesfan2 | July 14, 2008 at 01:42 PM
I'd LOVE to see the Yankees put a trade together with the Rockies for Holliday and Fuentes. Fills TWO monster holes...another righty with power and a great lefty RP.
Kennedy, Melky, Ohlendorf and Britton? Does that git ur done? Opinions?
Posted by: jjyankeesfan2 | July 14, 2008 at 01:49 PM
"I'd LOVE to see the Yankees put a trade together with the Rockies for Holliday and Fuentes. Fills TWO monster holes...another righty with power and a great lefty RP.
Kennedy, Melky, Ohlendorf and Britton? Does that git ur done? Opinions?"
Not a chance in hell.
Teams aren't interested in our garbage.
IF the Rockies want to deal Holliday+Fuentes, start with Hughes and Jackson + others.
Obviously, too much. As the deadline approaches, maybe that lowers to Kennedy+Jackson + others. At the VERY cheapest (no other offers, Rockies want to maximize take, and don't want to wait til offseason (unlikely)), Kennedy+Tabata+others.
Posted by: V | July 14, 2008 at 02:20 PM
Not to mention, Holliday away from Coors is above average, but hardly a superstar, and Fuentes has his own question marks. The bullpen is also not a problem this year.
Posted by: V | July 14, 2008 at 02:22 PM
"Kennedy, Melky, Ohlendorf and Britton"
I'm hoping you're joking. There's not a single quality piece in that offer. It's not even enough to get Holliday.
Posted by: start_wearing_purple | July 14, 2008 at 02:24 PM
Are you kidding me with that group of underachievers for a proven commodity like Holliday?! Like start-wearing-purple said, that wouldn't even get Holliday let alone with Fuentes. in my opinion, Fuentes is a bad idea anyway. Have the Yankees ever had any luck with a reliever from Colorado?
Posted by: scottnar21 | July 14, 2008 at 03:36 PM
First of all the Cubs will resign Dempster. He loves Chicago. 3 years 36 Mil?
Second I can see the Cubs going after CC. The new owner will want to make a big move at the beginning of his campaign.
Imagine this rotation:
Zambrano
CC
Harden
Lilly
Dempster
Posted by: uww1 | July 15, 2008 at 04:57 AM
if the yankees do sign sabathia and resign pettite imagion the rotation
wang
sabathia
chamberlain
pettite
mussina
tht would be hard to beat or if they sign sheets tht be hard to beat too
Posted by: yankeefanbriccio13 | July 17, 2008 at 07:13 PM
i tthink next year yankees should not resign giambi they should sign textiera he would be a great addition to the yankees
Posted by: yankeefanbriccio13 | July 17, 2008 at 07:15 PM