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By Tim Dierkes [September 4, 2008 at 11:55am CST]
Let's take a look at the latest column from ESPN's Jayson Stark.
- Stark wonders why no one has questioned MLB's apparent trade deadline extension for the Manny Ramirez deal.
- Currently the idea of the Brewers swapping Prince Fielder for Matt Cain is just fun speculation. However, it is true the Brewers will listen on Fielder (he is about to get expensive). The Giants are known to like the big first baseman. The hangup is Brian Sabean's reported unwillingness to trade Tim Lincecum or Cain.
- The Giants also have their eye on Adrian Beltre. The Mariners want starting pitching, but one year of Beltre is not equal to four of Jonathan Sanchez.
- The Phillies still don't want to go past two guaranteed years for Pat Burrell. Stark points out another complication - Burrell would gain 10-and-5 rights early in a Phillies contract. Any NL team inking Burrell for four years is a risky proposition given his defense. If Burrell leaves the Phillies, Stark doesn't expect the team to sign a major free agent as his replacement.
- The Indians deserve props for acquiring Anthony Reyes. Let's not overdo it though - it's only been five starts, and his strikeout rate is just 4.0 per nine in Cleveland.
- The Indians talked to multiple teams about Cliff Lee last winter. Interestingly, they thought the hardest about swapping him for Carlos Quentin.
- The Astros were quite willing to trade Ty Wigginton, prior to his massive August.
On the Fielder/Giants deal - As a Dodger fan, I would love to see the Giants get screwed out of Cain, but realistically I don't see Fielder as worth Cain. Cain is a young, durable, cheap strong #2 or weak ace pitcher. I do think Fielder is worth Sanchez + a low level prospect with upside.
As for Burrell, I really don't think 10/5 should come into it if the Phillies are going to sign him. Signing a guy with his skill set suggests that you want a player who will be in the lineup for the entire contract term. Burrell will be too old and too expensive to trade even without a 10/5 veto, and his bat makes WAY too much sense in that ballpark.
Posted by: AA | September 04, 2008 at 12:25 PM
Cliff Lee is the ray of sunshine in a cloudy Cleveland season. But, Anthony Reyes is a solid pick up. He commands the strike zone and strike outs don't mean anything if he is keeping the ball in the park and runs off the board. He looks to be the #3 or #4 starter for Cleveland next year.
Posted by: Adam | September 04, 2008 at 12:30 PM
I liked the Reyes pickup. I think he just needed a change of scenery.
I'm glad Cleveland didn't get Quentin, even if Lee is tearing it up.
Posted by: striker | September 04, 2008 at 12:36 PM
how about Jimmy Rollins, JA Happ, Carlos Ruiz for Cain? Rollins is cheap for a long time (about 8 million per year until 2011) and he'd love playing in front of the Bay area fans.
Any takers Giants fans? You need offense and Jimmy certainly can provide that and a gold glove.
Posted by: philsWSchamps | September 04, 2008 at 12:37 PM
Adam, I'm hoping Anthony Reyes succeeds because I was really excited about rising the ranks through the organization...
With that said, keeping the ball in the park is not one of his strong suits: this is a guy who allowed 41 HR's in 220.2 IP in St. Louis!
I suppose you could reason that the dude was getting hit hard because he was pitching under a different philosophy. However, I think him getting hit hard was just as much a result of not having the stuff we thought he did.
Reyes was always somewhat of an enigma. He always had decent sabermetrical stats that led a lot of people to believe that he was just unlucky and was poised to break out... but watching him with your eyes told a different story: this was a guy who just didn't seem like a major league-caliber pitcher.
Basically, unless he sustains a low home run rate (which history suggests he won't), he's not going to have success. But here's hoping he turns the corner.
Posted by: google_bought | September 04, 2008 at 12:47 PM
"Cliff Lee is the ray of sunshine in a cloudy Cleveland season."
Don't forget Grady Sizemore and Kelly Shoppach.
Posted by: Victor | September 04, 2008 at 12:53 PM
Reyes could definitely be the #4 next year. His stats in the minors were definitely better than "decent". To me, early on, He did look like a major leaguer. Winning a world series game, throwing a 1 hitter against the white sox...he was good. Duncan doesn't groom young pitchers very well unless they like throwing the 2 seam fastball. Reyes is a four seam guy that likes to pitch up in the zone. That can hurt him at times...but he isn't going to start being a sinkerballer now. He will be in the majors for years...won't be an ace, but should be a solid middle of the rotation guy. Good pickup for Cleveland.
Posted by: Aduncaroo | September 04, 2008 at 01:00 PM
Rollins would be ideal for the G-Men.. but not for Cain. What about Sanchez + for him??
Sabathia and Rollins back in the Bay would be so sick!
Posted by: Ohan | September 04, 2008 at 01:17 PM
Wow...i can only imagine if the giants give up any of their young pitchers (sanchez et all) in some sort of a deal where the key component coming back is Adrian Beltre. I would have to say that sounds like typical Sabean.
Posted by: cycub | September 04, 2008 at 01:19 PM
ohan,
no way. You've got to pay to get. JROLL would also help with that sagging SF attendance!!! Come on now, Cain soon will get to a point you can't afford him and you've got other young pitchers in the pipeline. You'd rather give me Baumgarner because i could do that one too.
Oh and Phils shouldn't go for more than 2 years + option on Burrell because we've got a stud young OF'er in Michael Taylor coming up by then. He's got Ryan Howard's physique and HR prowess and a cannon for an arm. Remember his name in 2 years. You heard it here first.
Posted by: philsWSchamps | September 04, 2008 at 01:23 PM
@ philswschamps,
you think donald could play SS everyday starting in april?
if i'm trading j-roll in a deal to the giants for a young starter, i'm probably throwing in whatever it takes to get lincecum. notice i said probably.
oh and pat burrell ranks fourth among left fielders in major league baseball in zone rating.
Posted by: d27 | September 04, 2008 at 01:24 PM
why would the phils want an injured sanchez? haha nice try. Oh and CC's going to the Bronx.
And a phils rotation of Hamels, Cain, Carrasco Myers etc would be SWEET!!
Posted by: philsWSchamps | September 04, 2008 at 01:28 PM
sagging SF attendence?? are you kidding me we still avg. 35,000+ a game with a bottom 5 team. Lincecum isnt going anywhere.. we dont need anymore OFs, expecially pat burrell. I'd be willing to give up Henry Sosa and Sanchez for J Roll.
Posted by: Ohan | September 04, 2008 at 01:30 PM
plus.. I wouldn't mind getting fielder, but we got 3 guys who could fill 1B half way decent until Angel Villalona is ready to come up and rake. We need a 3B or SS.. ideally a SS. So why give up Cain.. We could probably land a good SS or 3B for Sanchez+
Posted by: Ohan | September 04, 2008 at 01:33 PM
i guess we'll be taking our services elsewhere...
Posted by: d27 | September 04, 2008 at 01:34 PM
D27,
Its not the ideal situation but i think he could be fine and he'd be protected enough in the lineup. No one would expect JROLL numbers at the onset but my main concern would be his defense.
My PERFECT phils lineup next year would be:
1)Victorino (CF)
2)Werth (RF)
3)Utley (2B)
4)Howard (1B)
5)Burrell (LF)
6)Marson (C)
7)Donald (SS)
8)Feliz (3B)
That lineup to me is as good or better than this year's. Marson is as much of an updgrade over Ruiz/Coste as Donald is a downgrade.
If our rotation was Hamels, Cain, Myers, Carrasco, Happ then we'd be fine. That's a 95-100 win team there.
Posted by: philsWSchamps | September 04, 2008 at 01:35 PM
ohan,
now don't get testy, haha. For a bottom 5 team 85% of capacity is good I'm just saying JROLL, added wins or not would bring another big boost to get you all back to 90-95% capacity that it was for the last couple years. You keep a bottom 5 team and fans will give up.
Posted by: philsWSchamps | September 04, 2008 at 01:38 PM
Re: Wigginton, it looks like the old baseball adage stands true: "sometimes the best moves are the ones you don't make."
Posted by: ARusonis | September 04, 2008 at 02:28 PM
I used to say the only player the Giants could trade Cain for would have to be David Wright. But I now face the facts and see we need to trade him. I think that Cain + Manny Burris for Prince Feilder and Rickie Weeks sounds good. This allows the Brewers and option to sign a Mark Grudilanec? I don't know how to spell his name. But It gives them an ace after Sheets retires. The Giants fill the first and SS hole. I say SS because we would have to move Rickie to Short so Frandsen can play 2cnd. This is a good deal for both teams! They need to do it!
Posted by: Joe505 | September 04, 2008 at 02:44 PM
Sanchez plus prospect for Fielder would be a nice pick up for Giants...
Also JJ Hardy would be a good fit depending on the trade.
Lincecum is staying regardless of offer. Cain most likely as well. Sanchez and prospects are the tradeable pieces....
Posted by: 55saveslives | September 04, 2008 at 03:35 PM
Are you joking? FIelder is worth about 4 Sanchezs!
Posted by: ballerwhiteboy | September 04, 2008 at 04:05 PM
If all it takes to land Prince Fielder is an injured pitcher with a 4.50 ERA then I say the Brewers are selling really low. I'm sure my Angels would be happy to give you Jered Weaver (lower ERA, better track record) for Prince.
Posted by: bjsguess | September 04, 2008 at 05:02 PM
"Are you joking? FIelder is worth about 4 Sanchezs!"
Sanchez is a 25 year old lefty with excellent command who has had a ton of bad luck this season (his WHIP is not all that far off of Cain's). The reason he + a prospect is worth Fielder is because power hitting 1B are not all that hard to find, whereas lefties who strike people out are.
"If all it takes to land Prince Fielder is an injured pitcher with a 4.50 ERA then I say the Brewers are selling really low. I'm sure my Angels would be happy to give you Jered Weaver (lower ERA, better track record) for Prince."
That would be an interesting deal, but I don't see the Angels doing it. They still like Weaver too much at this point to move him. I do like the idea of Adenhart + Sean Rodriguez for Fielder, because I think Fielder would take less to sign a long term deal (remember how he was miffed about Braun's contract?)
Posted by: AA | September 04, 2008 at 05:27 PM
Sorry guys, but I really doubt that Sanchez and a low prospect would be even be considered for Fielder. As a Giants fan, I'm always surprised how low Giants fans expect other teams to sell. Remember that a fair trade at the beginning of the season was Cain or Lincecum for Alex Rios. While Lincecum's performance has picked up in the last year, Cain's is nearly the same as before. Is Alex Rios really so much better than Prince Fielder to warrant the downgrade from Cain to Sanchez? Sanchez has great potential, but he's been inconsistent and is just coming off of an injury.
Posted by: angryseals | September 04, 2008 at 05:48 PM
Id rather resign Tex than trade for Fielder... although if Tex left then I would trade Adenhart OR Weaver, Aybar & a prospect for Fielder & Hardy. That would be a good trade for both teams but Id rather have Tex.
Posted by: #1 Angels Fan | September 04, 2008 at 05:54 PM
A. Reyes will be a fine pitcher, I think the Cards got too little for him.
Posted by: Redbirdfan | September 04, 2008 at 06:08 PM
you were joking about the Rios trade right?
Sanchez plus a high prospect not a low prospect.
1 for 1 big name trades rarely occur so Cain for Prince most likely would never happen
Posted by: 55saveslives | September 04, 2008 at 06:55 PM
Giants should sell high on cain. They are loaded with young pitching studs (alderson and bumgardner) and with linecum and zito not going anywhere soon it makes since to trade cain. I think his value is close to fielders but if I where the brewers I would not do this deal. No way sanchez gets that much. Sanchez is probably worth a starter but a seven hitter probably at best.
Posted by: thegoods24 | September 04, 2008 at 07:12 PM
sanchez or lowry for matsui sees to make sense.
Posted by: thegoods24 | September 04, 2008 at 07:13 PM
I really like the Fielder & Hardy for Weaver & Willitets & a prospect proposed deal.
Posted by: ballerwhiteboy | September 04, 2008 at 07:15 PM
@ thegoods
both Lowry and Matsui are damaged goods right now, as Matsui only has about 305 ABs, and Lowry hasnt pitched this season. It would not seem smart to sell low. I dont think Matsui has much left in him now a days. Lowry when healthy can be a steady no. 4 workhoarse
Posted by: ballerwhiteboy | September 04, 2008 at 07:21 PM
@55saveslives
Supposedly talks for a trade involving Rios and either Lincecum or Cain happened during the offseason, before the Giants signed Rowand. I was never a fan of the idea, and I'm glad it didn't work out. My point though is that when it comes to trading away their young talent, teams will be interested in Cain or Lincecum, not Lowry or Sanchez. Also, I'm not advocating trading Cain, I just think that fans shouldn't have unreasonable expectations for Sabean to get a lot without giving up anything.
Posted by: angryseals | September 05, 2008 at 04:43 AM
Seals,
You're off on the Giants Pitcher for Matsui memory. Lincecum wasn't considered as a possibility in it. Some wrote Cain, but he never really was either--as you can find by doing research. It was for Sanchez, and Sanchez has since increased his value by a fair bit.
Posted by: haverecords | September 05, 2008 at 06:08 AM
"Matt Cain for David Wright is LAUGHABLE. David Wright is a perennial allstar and MVP candidate. Matt Cain has tremendous promise, but that doesn't equate a franchise mega player like wright."
While I agree with you from a marketing prospective, I disagree from a value prospective. Cain's win numbers are poor because the Giants suck, not because of his pitching. Cain is already pitching like a solid number 2, and he is only 24 years old, and signed cheaply. While a straight up deal for Wright would probably be too much, a deal that included a guy like Burriss would make sense.
Posted by: AA | September 05, 2008 at 12:32 PM
TruDu22,
you kidding me? Pelfrey. Can he prove it for more than a year. Hamels is 10x the pitcher Pelfrey is. Heck Myers rocked him tonight. GO PHILS!!
Oh and can Wright GET TO the world series before you compare him to Jeter.
Posted by: philsWSchamps | September 05, 2008 at 09:06 PM
i basically meant that given the choice I'd take Cain over Pelfrey as he's been doing it longer and neither are Hamels. Pelfrey needs to prove next year he's not a one year wonder. that's if J. Manuel doesn't have his arm fall off this year from overwork. those +30 numbers are pretty close. (he should reach them with his next start) and IF the Mets make the playoffs he and the bullpen will be too gassed to do anything.
Posted by: philsWSchamps | September 05, 2008 at 10:44 PM
how good is matt cain? what would his record be if he was on a decent team? Is he a future ace?
Posted by: glover28 | September 06, 2008 at 12:58 PM
Phillies Receive: Matt Cain,
Giants Receive: Jimmy Rollins, Joe Savery
Just tried to throw something together
Posted by: mm6492 | September 06, 2008 at 03:22 PM
haha testy huh? My simple point was that Pelfrey has to perform better longer to be what cain is, that's all. Remember last year? Pelfrey couldn't get anyone out and his ERA was over 5.5 over 13 starts. Even the beginning of this year his ERA was hovering around 5 around the beginning of June.
MM6492,
I'd do that deal. I'd even add a Quintin Berry or preferably a Stutes or Worley from Lakewood if necessary. I'd rather do one of the pitchers becuase Berry's going to be good in 2-3 years if he can keep his average up. The outfield in Reading next year should be very very good with him and Taylor
Posted by: philsWSchamps | September 06, 2008 at 04:26 PM
There is no way the brewers trade jj hardy. he will probably be moved to 3rd to make room for alcides escobar. The idea of a trade of fielder is fine by me. He'll want to much money and we could get a lot back for him. He would be a good 2nd option for teams looking for a 1st baseman but not wanting to pay up for Teixera.
Posted by: stopher | September 11, 2008 at 12:05 PM