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By Tim Dierkes [October 15, 2008 at 5:59pm CST]
Non-Manny notes from Jon Heyman's latest...
- The Angels and Mets "appear hesitant" to give Francisco Rodriguez five years. There's not an obvious suitor to overpay K-Rod, but the Mets are the closest.
- Heyman sees Brian Fuentes getting about $11MM per year. Ken Rosenthal recently suggested even more money.
- Doug Melvin could become a candidate for the Mariners job if the Brewers aren't able to extend him. Doesn't seem to make sense since Melvin is signed through 2009.
- Heyman believes Chris Antonetti in Cleveland is contractually guaranteed the GM job in the future.
- The Dodgers will try to re-sign Rafael Furcal, no surprise there.
- A scout sang the praises of Hank Blalock's second-half hitting (.281/.324/.532 after the break). Blalock may be on the trading block.
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I wonder what it would take for the Blue Jays to go and get Blalock? He has a $6.2 club option for the '09 season. The Jays and Rangers have hooked up on trades before (the latest being the Kevin Mench trade), so there is familiarity there.
I think he'd be a much cheaper version of Manny (obviously Manny's still far superior, but Blalock can still hit, as shown by his .281/.324/.532 post-break numbers)
Posted by: Patrick | October 15, 2008 at 06:18 PM
I would stay away from KRod for 5 years. I'd much rather see the Mets secure another starter like Garland or Lowe, Acquire a Street or BJ Ryan and get Joe Beimel, while resigning Luis Ayala. Even though he had a rough year he is still a proven setup man.
Posted by: shaddix | October 15, 2008 at 06:36 PM
Dempster and K-Rod= 2 huge contracts for two pitchers who'll break down. Off topic... Is Beane really going to soccer and i think J Hendry will be the M's GM next year. Thoughts?
Posted by: ballerwhiteboy | October 15, 2008 at 06:54 PM
I wish someone could please tell me why K-Rod is an injury risk. People love to say that but after 6 years it's getting a little old.
Posted by: bjsguess | October 15, 2008 at 07:09 PM
I dont think Krod is an injury risk just too many years and money for a closer. Especially for the Mets who have a whole bullpen to worry about. If anyone though KRod is worth the investment.
Posted by: shaddix | October 15, 2008 at 07:21 PM
ballerwhiteboy- The Beane going to soccer thing is a rumor. I think he'd still have some involvement with the A's.
I don't see Hendry leaving the Cubs next year.
Posted by: melonis rex | October 15, 2008 at 07:24 PM
bjsguess- I don't think K-Rod as breaking down physically, I see him as breaking down peripherally.
I'm probably looking too far into this so feel free to bludgeon, but look at the changes in his K/9, K/BB, WHIP, etc. Red flags all over the place. 2006 looks more like an anomaly than the norm.
Posted by: melonis rex | October 15, 2008 at 07:24 PM
I really think K-Rod ends up a Met. I don't think its a good idea for any team, but the only team I think will give him the 15MM contract he "wants" is the Mets.
Or, it becomes an all out bidding war at a lower ceiling (12MM per).
Posted by: melonis rex | October 15, 2008 at 07:31 PM
would the dodgers consider tradeing dewiit for a proven player. he can play 2b or 3b, is still young and could become a solid player. what could they get?
Posted by: lakersdodgersyankees4life | October 15, 2008 at 09:14 PM
"would the dodgers consider tradeing dewiit for a proven player. he can play 2b or 3b, is still young and could become a solid player. what could they get?"
DeWitt is already a solid player and can play the entire infield. A .344 OBP as a 22 year old emergency player together with his defense and ability to hit LHP suggest solidness even now. Trading him wouldn't be much as he hasn't had time to build much value and fills holes the Dodgers have after this season ends. His MiLB numbers suggest he could be a 20 HR/40 2B guy and he seems to have really developed a batting eye in the majors this year.
Posted by: AA | October 15, 2008 at 09:22 PM
"I don't think K-Rod as breaking down physically, I see him as breaking down peripherally.
I'm probably looking too far into this so feel free to bludgeon, but look at the changes in his K/9, K/BB, WHIP, etc. Red flags all over the place. 2006 looks more like an anomaly than the norm."
His K rate is down, but that has a lot to do with his effort to pitch more to contact. His 42.6% GB rate in 2008 was excellent.
Also, his walk rate was down year over year.
That he allowed more hits is likely because was a victim of a high BABIP at .294. Compared to Joe Nathan at .234, you can see how Frankie was the victim of a lot of bad luck.
That his ERA was so low has to suggest some strength in his pitching, and in his ability to get out of jams.
And as for the injury stuff, I think people really need to get over that. His arm mechanics are near flawless.
Posted by: AA | October 15, 2008 at 09:40 PM
what do you think of a delgado, heilman and Evans to toronto for BJ Ryan and Scutaro?
Posted by: shaddix | October 15, 2008 at 10:06 PM
Seriously. Toronto won't contend next year in the AL East. Delgado needs to go to a contender, for he has only one year left on his contract.
Posted by: melonis rex | October 15, 2008 at 10:14 PM
Or Delgado stays with the Mets. A team like the Mariners or the Jays receiving Delgado in a trade makes zero sense whatsoever.
Heilman and Evans + prospect(Mike Carp maybe?) for BJ Ryan makes sense for the Jays.
Posted by: melonis rex | October 15, 2008 at 10:16 PM
"would the dodgers consider tradeing dewiit for a proven player. he can play 2b or 3b, is still young and could become a solid player. what could they get?"
I think Dewitt is pretty solid as is. I don't see the point of trading him unless it is in a package for a major impact player.
Posted by: melonis rex | October 15, 2008 at 10:20 PM
Toronto will try to contend though, and Delgado can be flipped for a few prospects to a contender if the jays aren't going anywhere by the allstar break. How can u say the jays won't contend next year , who thought the twins and rays would be any good this year ? The jays had more of a shot at the beginning of the year,
Posted by: shaddix | October 15, 2008 at 10:23 PM
The Jays aren't going to start rebuilding while they have Halladay. They saw what Tampa did and figure they have a decent rotation and a solid bullpen. They get a rent a guy like Delgado and don't have to stay committed to him if they fall. I agree however that Delgado makes absolutely no sense for Seattle or oakland for that Matter.
Posted by: shaddix | October 15, 2008 at 10:29 PM
K-Rod's BB/9
03: 3.66
04: 3.54
05: 4.28
06: 3.45
07: 4.54
08: 4.48
OK. His 2008 BB/9 was (barely) better than 2007, but those 2007-08 stats don't appeal to me. If those were coming out of a starting pitcher, I'd be less
And, this is straying from numerical, but those jams have to scare you.
I'm very familiar with heart-attack style pitching, especially from a certain LH starter who was great at serving up the free pass. Although there are other heart-attack style guys still currently on the squad.
Mets fans, K-Rod will allow baserunners.
Posted by: melonis rex | October 15, 2008 at 10:35 PM
*If those were coming out of a starting pitcher, I'd be less skeptical. Starting pitching is more like a marathon, relief pitching is the sprint IMO.
Please ignore my spiel on heart-attack style pitching, sorry about that. I was completely out of it. It makes zero sense. I was trying to make the point that K-Rod will get into jams, although he is rather effective at getting out of them.
Posted by: melonis rex | October 15, 2008 at 10:41 PM
i wish i knew what scout spoke so highly of blalock. clearly the rangers are going to pick up his option, but i definitely think they should flip him to another club, possibly in a package for a pitcher.
Posted by: tmoney352 | October 15, 2008 at 11:04 PM
I think the Cubs will sign Fuentes this off season. I know you guys are going to say ''your a typical Cubs fan blah blah blah.'' Well I know the Cubs need another lefty in their bullpen and a closer that could get the job done quick. Not hit 2 batters walk another and let 2 runs score before winning. *cough Kerry Wood * cough. I mean Wood did good as first year as the closer but I would rather see him as the set up man.
Posted by: BLEEDINGCUBBIEBLUE | October 15, 2008 at 11:08 PM
@ melonis rex
I won't argue one bit on the heart attack stuff. I've said it many times, K-Rod does scare the crud out of me every time he is on the mound. Seems like he is just one pitch away from losing it. Although, his track record is strong. More times than not he manages to get that crucial K just when he needs it.
His K's are down (for this year) and his control has never been great. That said, he was dominant by just about any standard. As an Angels fan I do hope he is resigned BUT NOT if the price is 5/75. We have other options if K-Rod is priced too high.
As for those that suggest that Kevin Gregg is essentially as good as K-Rod or Fuentes ... please check your facts. Saves are an imperfect stat - obviously. But you can look at something like blown saves to see how many games your closer is primarily responsible for losing. Gregg was on the hook for NINE blown saves out of 38 chances. K-Rod blew 7 saves but it was out of 69 opportunities.
Over a typical season that difference could account for 3 to 5 extra wins. For a team that is just barely missing the post-season those extra few wins mean all the world.
Posted by: bjsguess | October 15, 2008 at 11:21 PM
to me the lcs proved a lot.
1. blake dewitt isnt ready. he had 1 hit(the 3run triple)
2. players like martin, ethier, and kemp need to work on cleanup/pressure situations. combine kemp, martin, dewitt, and ethier left a total of 50 runners on base in the lcs alone!! those 4 guys. that why the dodgers didnt win, manny hit over 500, but when no one else is on for him to drive in, or is driving him in, it doesnt help. thats why they need manny plus another bat ready for the season. that why i thought dewitt and a prospect or two for uggla(if they firesale, even though they came out yesterday saying they wouldnt, u never know)? dewitt can play 2b for the marlins in rebuilding and uggla can be that bat to protect manny. u have a lineup of:
furcal
martin
manny
uggla
ethier
loney
kemp
blake
w/ a pitching rotation of
cc
billingsley
maybe/hopefully lowe?
kuroda
kershaw
if they dont have lowe, then use mccdonald or sign a vet to take the spot.
any comments?
Posted by: lakersdodgersyankees4life | October 15, 2008 at 11:27 PM
LakersDodgers...
Uhh...That is a very ambitious plan you have. The main problems with it, are that we wont/cant get manny and CC, we may not resign furcal (we should though), blake, and Lowe (again should if we dont go for a big sp).
Also, to trade for Uggla, there is no way to keep Kemp/Loney/Martin/Kershaw/Mcdonald all together. I think a deal COULD get done where we give up Mcdonald, Dewitt (maybe on him, im not sure how much they would want him), and a couple other minor leaguers that are low to mid level for Uggla, but i just really dont see it getting done.
What I dont think people understand is that the Dodgers have had a very good farm system the past few years, problem is (not a terrible problem mind you) most of the "prospects" are currently starting for the Dodgers (Loney, Kemp, Kershaw, Broxton, Billingsley, Martin), so it leaves our minors pretty thin right now, or until guys like Lambo and Bell get close to MLB ready.
What i dont get, is how are guys like Delwyn Young and John Lindsey having such good minor league seasons, and no one ever talks about them, and they hold such little value?
Posted by: Ivdown | October 16, 2008 at 06:09 AM
The Dodgers could probably get Uggla for DeWitt and McDonald. McDonald is an MLB-ready starter with the upside of a solid 2/good 3. DeWitt is a pretty solid player and seems like the kind of guy who will post a .360/.420 line with great defense for a long time. I think the Marlins would probably be fairly content with that deal
Posted by: scribbletone | October 16, 2008 at 08:44 AM
"Blalock the best hitter I saw in the 2nd Half"
LOL, he see 3 hitters ?
July: .206/.243/.382
August: .214/.250/.286
Sept: .337/.385/.695
SEVEN WALKS in the last 130 AB's.
Career Road #'s: .244/.299/.402
Carrer vs Lefties:
.231/.285/.371
Posted by: kinsler5 | October 16, 2008 at 09:29 AM
bjsguess-
The Angels have top notch defense. If K-Rod were to go to the Mets, where Delgado isn't really that great of a defender, and 2B is a draw (Castillo is a mediocre defender, Murphy is a wildcard at 2B) unless the Mets bring in Hudson, I'm betting more saves get blown. And, obviously, the rest of the pen doing ugly things in the 7th/8th innings. Arredondo and Shields are one hell of a set-up crew, and they get it done pretty eventlessly.
Posted by: melonis rex | October 16, 2008 at 11:26 AM
And no, Kevin Gregg is NOT better than K-Rod.
However, adding Kevin Gregg + using the saved money to attain 2 other quality relievers solidifies the pen all around, as opposed to K-Rod solidifying only the 9th inning.
And, K-Rod hasn't done multi-inning save situations or come in non-save situations at all, which I REALLY don't like about him. If the pen is taxed, the manager needs more flexibility in working with K-Rod.
I really think K-Rod is the best FIT with the Angels due to their solid bullpen + defense.
Posted by: melonis rex | October 16, 2008 at 11:34 AM
"what do you think of a delgado, heilman and Evans to toronto for BJ Ryan and Scutaro?"
The problem with Ryan is that he is an injury risk.
"However, adding Kevin Gregg + using the saved money to attain 2 other quality relievers solidifies the pen all around, as opposed to K-Rod solidifying only the 9th inning."
Did you just say Kevin Gregg? The guy the Angels threw on the scrap heap? Gregg is a decent setup man/middle reliever who closes for the Fish because they are cheap. I would rather have Arredondo, Shields or even Jepsen close over Gregg.
"Arredondo and Shields are one hell of a set-up crew, and they get it done pretty eventlessly."
In Arredondo's one season, I agree. On Shields, however, he is even more of a heart attack than K-Rod.
"The Dodgers could probably get Uggla for DeWitt and McDonald. McDonald is an MLB-ready starter with the upside of a solid 2/good 3. DeWitt is a pretty solid player and seems like the kind of guy who will post a .360/.420 line with great defense for a long time. I think the Marlins would probably be fairly content with that deal"
That deal would probably work out, but I don't know if the Dodgers want to let go of McDonald given how he dominated the Philly lineup at both CBP and Dodger Stadium, and that they do need pitching going into next year. Also, Uggla would be a huge defensive liability.
An idea I like better is a package of Elbert + Hu + Low Level Prospect for Uggla with DeWitt moving back to 3B.
"blake dewitt isnt ready. he had 1 hit(the 3run triple)"
So a small sample size of LHP heavy Philly pitching says that a 22 year old who was pressed into an early promotion isn't ready? I guess hitting .273 with a .455 SLG against a Cubs staff that is better than Philly's means nothing? Or how about his .398 OBP over the last month of the season?
Posted by: AA | October 16, 2008 at 04:08 PM
I'm with AA on Gregg. I think he is a fine reliever but will struggle mightily as a closer in NY.
Potentially you could have Gregg for $6m/year. That would give you another $7m or $8m to spend on other parts in case you didn't go the K-Rod route. That really could shore up the bullpen.
I think that it is a fair argument to spend your resources on Gregg over K-Rod. Just don't expect anywhere near the performance that K-Rod will give you.
Posted by: bjsguess | October 16, 2008 at 05:28 PM
"What i dont get, is how are guys like Delwyn Young and John Lindsey having such good minor league seasons, and no one ever talks about them, and they hold such little value?"
Young played pretty well as a pinch hitter this year in the majors. His problem is that he isn't much of a defensive player. If he wasn't so error prone at 2B, Jeff Kent would probably already be retired. I suppose if Manny were not resigned, Young would have the first crack at LF, but that scenario isn't pretty.
As for Lindsey, have you seen how old he is? He is a 31 year old career minor leaguer who has been in 3 organizations. He has hit well the last 2 years, but he really has no value at all.
"Potentially you could have Gregg for $6m/year. That would give you another $7m or $8m to spend on other parts in case you didn't go the K-Rod route. That really could shore up the bullpen."
I thought we were talking about the Angels with that one. Still, Gregg is no closer.
Posted by: AA | October 16, 2008 at 06:12 PM