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Jake Peavy Rumors: Thursday

By Tim Dierkes [October 23, 2008 at 2:06pm CST]

2:05pm: Braves GM Frank Wren spoke to the AP today about the Peavy rumors. He still says the Braves will not trade their top prospects. He notes that much of the talk lately is based on questionable speculation by rival executives.

12:27am: Let's kick things off with the freshest Jake Peavy rumors.

Dan Hayes of the North County Times says "as many as 14 clubs" inquired about Peavy so far, with some teams taking an aggressive approach. Barry Axelrod and Kevin Towers want to slow things down now, have some meetings. A trade will not be announced during the World Series and is not likely until the November 3-6 GM meetings at the earliest. Axelrod and Towers again suggested Peavy could stay in San Diego.
Tom Krasovic of the San Diego Union-Tribune says at least three Padres scouts watched Braves pitching prospect Tommy Hanson in the Arizona Fall League recently.
J.C. Bradbury explains that the only team that benefits from Peavy's below-market contract is the Padres. Is it too early in the morning for econ?
Cardinals GM John Mozeliak "all but dismissed" the idea of being in the mix for Peavy. They have their '08 rotation locked in, pending Chris Carpenter's health. They've already got more than $32MM committed to the current group of starters.
ESPN's Keith Law does not feel that a package of Tommy Hanson, Jordan Schafer, and one of Kelly Johnson/Yunel Escobar is a reasonable expectation for Peavy.

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Comments

nrmax,
Johan Santana does have an injury history you should look into it, elbow issues when he was younger. Also I find it funny that you try and discredit Peavy, he achieved the pitching triple crown a few years ago en route to becoming the unanimous Cy Young award winner. He also led the league in ERA as a 23 yr old.

Posted by: cwilli | October 23, 2008 at 06:32 PM

If the Braves do not want to give up any of their four untouchables other teams are in the running to get Peavy.

Posted by: tinski | October 23, 2008 at 06:34 PM

Santana has never missed significant time. Peavy has issed significant time on more then one occasion. Peavy is great, but fact is, he has an injury history, is a future injury risk, put up all his numbers in the best park there is anywhere to pitch in, and is limiting his trade destinations to 5 places. All of this lowers his value. I am not a Braves fan at all. I just think there is no reason to give up any of their main 3 guys, or Escobar. I honestly don't care what Peavy did when he was 23.

Posted by: nrmax88 | October 23, 2008 at 06:36 PM

I would take Haren/CC/Johan all over Peavy, and it wouldn't be much of a decision. Others may not agree, but that is just how I feel. No way I give up my top 3 to get Peavy when nobody else has shown the willingness to put together a package that would require one of the big 3.

Posted by: nrmax88 | October 23, 2008 at 06:38 PM

Santana missed practically an entire season, Peavy has been on the 15 day DL twice, which is the same number as CC Sabathia.

Posted by: cwilli | October 23, 2008 at 06:39 PM

"Yeah that's why I said there are no indications they would do a deal like that. I was just making the point that there are other suitors out there that are capable of matching Atlanta's offer and there is reasonable logic to think they could trump an offer.

But obviously there can be no doubt that the Braves are the favorite to land Peavy, as they have the best second tier prospects to back up a good centerpiece. Other teams either have a good centerpiece or good secondary pieces but not both. Or at least in terms of what they're willing to deal."

OMG...

Thank you scribble for bringing credibility to this thread after about a 1000 posts.

The realization is that no one can come close to touching us on Peavy unless the Sox want to part w/ Ellsbury, Lowrie, and Masterson or some combination or the Dodgers get serious and offer Kershaw...

Peavy isn't worth what is being asked if that is what is on the table when we have close to 50 mil sitting in front of the safe...

If this is what it is...then it is what it is...

Just walk away...

Posted by: Braves22 | October 23, 2008 at 06:39 PM

Tinski,

Frank Wren has publicly stated that he is NOT moving those guys, and I think that is a VERY smart move. Let someone else overpay for him, or he can stay at Petco. By the way, have you noticed how many homers this guy gives up, when he is away from the pitcher friendly confines of Petco? This guy is going to a TJ case in 2 years tops. Just say NO Frank!!

Posted by: desertbraves | October 23, 2008 at 06:40 PM

Braves22,

That is EXACTLY what I've been saying all along. NO way he is even worth one of our big three.

Posted by: desertbraves | October 23, 2008 at 06:44 PM

"Johan Santana does have an injury history you should look into it, elbow issues when he was younger."

Santana threw at least 219 innings in each of the four years before being dealt to the Mets, where he pitched 234 innings. Santana has no durability issues. Whatever issues he had when he was younger have been past him for a good five years at least.

But I will agree that it's unfair to say that Peavy has serious injury concerns. Before 2008, he had thrown at 200+ innings in each of the previous three seasons, and he only missed 5-6 starts in 2008.

"He also led the league in ERA as a 23 yr old."

Actually, Peavy didn't pitch enough innings to quality for the ERA title in 2003.

And his numbers were somewhat helped by external factors. Jason Schmidt led the league in ERA+ that year at 179, Mark Prior was second at 178, and Peavy finished third at 171.

"That is EXACTLY what I've been saying all along. NO way he is even worth one of our big three."

I agree that from Atlanta's perspective I wouldn't deal Hanson or Escobar for him, but there is no doubt in my mind if you could cut a deal with Schafer as the centerpiece you pull the trigger. They also have Gorkys Hernandez, who really isn't that much worse of a prospect than Schafer, he just won't be ready as soon. Peavy would immediately help the 2009 Braves and would head the rotation with Jurrjens for a good while. If they could get him for Schafer, Flowers, Rohrbrough and a fourth player (Lillibridge?), then I think you may want to make a deal like that.

Posted by: scribbletone | October 23, 2008 at 06:52 PM

Exactly. The pads need to move him, or they wouldn't be so actively trying to move him with like 5 years left on his deal. They can move him and rebuild, while adding young talent and dumping salary. Or they can keep him, continue to be an awful team, and have him pitch there until he blows his elbow out. CC, Johan, and Haren are all way more durable then Peavy. It is what it is. Keep arguing all you want cwilli.

I would not give up Hanson, Schafer, or Heyward. All off limits, non-negotiable. That is just how I feel. And I have no Braves bias. The Braves made my childhood misarable, so I would love to sit here and say they need to gut the farm for Peavy. Facts are facts though. They are in the drivers seat, and if they wait it out they can get their guy, with the prospects they want to move. Not the prospects the Padre fans feel are sufficient.

Posted by: nrmax88 | October 23, 2008 at 06:52 PM

"Peavy isn't worth what is being asked if that is what is on the table when we have close to 50 mil sitting in front of the safe..."

Who are you going to get with that money to help your pitching staff. Burnett is also injury prone Oliver Perez is too wild and also gives up a ton of home runs. Lowe is probably won't go the braves if the Red Sox show interest. There is noway they outbid the Yankees for Sabathia (Remember Mike Hampton).

I am not saying to gut your farm system but you have to give up quality to get quality.

Posted by: tinski | October 23, 2008 at 06:55 PM

Thank you nrmax88,

I think that about sums it up. Nothing much left to say.

Posted by: desertbraves | October 23, 2008 at 06:55 PM

13 8 11 6 9 HR given up by peavy away last 5 years

santana 11 19 15 8 10

Posted by: bkoke | October 23, 2008 at 06:56 PM

Bkoke like your deal

and SMHG think Braves arent giving up enough what about...

Jake Peavy
Adrian Gonzalez
Khalil Green FOR

Jason Heyward
Gorkys Hernandez
Tommy Hanson
Escobar
Rohrbough
Tehran
Reyes

Now I know that it would be almost impossible to get done as the Braves would rather sign a FA then trade all their prospects away... But I think if Peavy and Green were traded and then in a seperate deal Adrian Gonzalez was traded this is the talent the Padres would get back!

MAYBE THE PADRES SHOULD TRADE GONZO. AND THEN BE BAD FOR 3 YEARS AMASS PICKS AND IN 2011 HAVE:

1B KYLE BLANKS
2B ANTONELLI
SS ESCOBAR
3B KOUZMANOFF (MAYBE HEADLEY) GOES BACK)
LF HEYWARD
CF HERNANDEZ
RF HUNTER
C????

SP: HANSON
SP: C. YOUNG
SP ROHRBOUGH
SP MATT LATOS
SP S. GARRISON
SP TEHRAN
SP LEBLANC
*PILE TOGETHER SOME OF THOSE STARTERS AND BEFORE THAT YEAR MAKE A TRADE FOR AN ACE??

Posted by: SuperChargers | October 23, 2008 at 06:58 PM

Scribbletone,

I think you may have been looking at the incorrect year there.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/statistics?year=2004

Posted by: cwilli | October 23, 2008 at 07:01 PM

not saying its not a fair deal but i cant see either club doing that deal. schafer would probably have to be including and why would the braves move damn near everything valuable in their system for two players.

i do think gonzo has even more value than peavy and it only grows when he leaves petco. young and super cheap. if he put up numbers like he does on the road he would of led the majors in SLG

Posted by: bkoke | October 23, 2008 at 07:02 PM

I know people place an importance on prospects but Hanson, Schafer, Escobar, deal is not that outlandish or off limits it is actually quite plausible. Prospects are no guarantee just ask MATT BUSH, ANKIEL(as a pitcher) etc. Go back on the BA prospect list no guarantee that they will live up to their hype.

Peavy is proven and trusted as well as a big game pitcher hardly injured ETC.

Posted by: SuperChargers | October 23, 2008 at 07:03 PM

Bkoke yah thats what i said... it would have to be in different deals and the braves would never do it as they have kotchman who the padres wouldnt even want.

Posted by: SuperChargers | October 23, 2008 at 07:04 PM

peavy hasnt proven hes a big game pitcher yet. he hasnt done well in the playoffs, but he is a bulldog on the mound and if he goes to a team that can get him there i think he will more than redeem himself

Posted by: bkoke | October 23, 2008 at 07:06 PM

"13 8 11 6 9 HR given up by peavy away last 5 years

santana 11 19 15 8 10"

Is there something resembling a point coming here? Or are you just showing everybody you are familiar with numbers up to 19?

ERA+ the last 5 years

Santana- 182 155 161 130 166
Peavy- 171 134 99 159 134

Look at that! A meaningful statistic!

How you like them apples?

Posted by: nrmax88 | October 23, 2008 at 07:07 PM

someone said he gives up a lot of home runs. i was just showing that person how wrong they are by comparing it to the best pitcher in baseball

Posted by: bkoke | October 23, 2008 at 07:11 PM

"Scribbletone,

I think you may have been looking at the incorrect year there."

Oh man, how did I miss that? Wow I just wasted my time typing that. My mistake. Peavy owned 2004, I was looking at 2003..

"Jake Peavy
Adrian Gonzalez
Khalil Green FOR

Jason Heyward
Gorkys Hernandez
Tommy Hanson
Escobar
Rohrbough
Tehran
Reyes"

Oh my.. The Braves are going to give up an established top young shortstop (Escobar), arguably the best OF prospect in baseball (Heyward), a legitimate top of the rotation prospect (Hanson), a top CF prospect (Hernandez), arguably the most talented pitcher in the low minors (Teheran), a good midrotation pitching prospect (Rohrbrough) and an MLB-ready back of the rotation starter (Reyes) all for an ace, a good 1B, and a decent SS coming off a brutal year.

That's not just lopsided, it's obscenely lopsided. I'd ask what you're smoking, but nothing I've ever smoked has made think of things that silly..

Posted by: scribbletone | October 23, 2008 at 07:19 PM

SuperChargers that deal would not happen not a chance, im surprised you went to the length of writiing out the 2011 Padres lineup, no chance.

Posted by: Showtime35 | October 23, 2008 at 07:19 PM

that deal isn't even worth disecting like scribbletone just did.

Posted by: Showtime35 | October 23, 2008 at 07:20 PM

Tinski,

While that may be true, it also is ok to value current players...maybe we don't look at the money we save by getting Peavy, BUT we look at the prospects and players we lose by trading for him...

The real question in the balance is...Is it more worth it to risk our future and possible present by overvaluing Peavy and trading intregal pieces within the organization to nab him, OR is it more organizationally efficient to pay the extra money for free agents knowing that we won't lose any of our talent within the system?

As of right now, option B is starting to look really good.

BTW...you just wasted about 5 min or so of your life replying to that post about the 2011 Pads Scribb...maybe you should ask for it back...lol

Posted by: Braves22 | October 23, 2008 at 07:25 PM

"BTW...you just wasted about 5 min or so of your life replying to that post about the 2011 Pads Scribb...maybe you should ask for it back...lol"

Nah it's alright. Somebody had to tell him..

Posted by: scribbletone | October 23, 2008 at 07:28 PM

The Pads really need to take it back a step and consider trading their second best players before their actual best. i think Chris Young should be traded before Peavy
or even Kouzmanoff. You of course wouldn't get as many prospects but for those two you would have to give a good amount.

Trade Kouz to a team who is in desperate need of a third such as the twins and trade Young away.

The pads need to be building around their best not giving them up.

if you think about it if the right players are traded the pads could be back on track or a least better than this season.

Posted by: Tha_SD-Brain | October 24, 2008 at 12:43 AM

I would imagine that the Padres could have all 3 players mentioned (Peavy, Young, Kouzmanoff) on the trading block this offseason. That's not saying that all 3 would be moved, but I would think that nobody on that team is untouchable. With the Padres is full-rebuild mode, everyone has their price.

A legitimate trade possibility for Kevin Kouzmanoff could be the Brewers. The Brewers are in desperate need of a quality 3B. And with the fact that they are tremendously overpaying Bill Hall there currently (and he's still under contract for a couple more seasons), the Brewers would love to have a player of Kouz's caliber both,offensively and defensively, on their squad.

Kouzmanoff was yet another player who's offensive stats fell victim to Petco Park. He his .226 on the season at home and a dramitically increased .292 on the road with a whopping 61 point difference in his home and road OBP (.268 home/.329 road).

I'm not sure what it would take to get him, but the Brewers could inquire about his availability as a solution to their INF issues.

Posted by: citron1616 | October 24, 2008 at 07:10 AM

Citron,

Kouzmanoff is regarded as a very poor defensive third baseman. If the Brewers went after him it would be for his power, and honestly in that case I think thy might as well not give up the talent and give Hall another shot.

Posted by: scribbletone | October 24, 2008 at 08:24 AM

how about a Jason Donald/JA Happ and another solid player/minor league prospect for Peavy? Would that get it done considering the Braves won't trade their best prospects? Happ can start right away and did very well in AAA last year and would do well in Petco and Donald is ready now and raking in AA/Olympics and the AFL this year.

Posted by: philsWSchamps | October 24, 2008 at 08:33 AM

Scribbletone, he was a terrible defender, key word there being was. Last year it ranked 3rd in the majors in Fpct., 8th in the majors in RF and 13th in the league in ZR. I think those numbers mean he is above avg defender.

Posted by: AirmanSD | October 24, 2008 at 08:42 AM

Those ranks are for quaified third baseman.

PhilsWSchamps: if that package is the start fans in SD would riot. Donald would be the center piece, and a nice one. But you would have to add more arms to that trade idea. Thought i would think its a start. It depends on how close Donald really is.

Posted by: AirmanSD | October 24, 2008 at 08:50 AM

AirmanSD,

how about if i added Lou Marson? I'd rather and but can understand your concern. Marson is a high OBP guy just like Donald and we've got D'arnaud in our system who will be ready in a couple of years that looks to be very good too although at the lower levels. We can suffer with Ruiz until then. The other thing that Padres fans need to realize is that Peavy's starting to get expensive and their team isn't ready to contend. That offer gets them a replacement starter they need, a SS for the next 10 years and a catcher for the same time frame.

Also the phils time frame is now with Utley, Rollins and Howard in their prime. A rotation of Hamels, Peavy, Carrasco, Myers and Blanton would be pretty good.

Posted by: philsWSchamps | October 24, 2008 at 09:11 AM

LOL you know whats funny?

"the braves are not willing to trade their top prospects for peavy"

THEN THEY AREN'T GETTING ONE OF THE TOP 3 PITCHERS IN THE NL SO DONT BOTHER POSTING ABOUT THEM!

Might as well just say "the braves are out of the jake peavy biddings"

Posted by: Santana/Beckett FTW | October 24, 2008 at 09:36 AM

The Braves are out of the running for Peavy. There you go. The Braves are better off keeping their prospects, than trading them for Peavy. Not worth it period. I don't care how good Peavy Is.

Posted by: desertbraves | October 24, 2008 at 10:13 AM

Now that the Braves are out, maybe the Astros are back in.

They don't have the stud pitching prospect Towers wants, but it's obvious Peavy wants to go there and a deal could be crafted with Pence as the centerpiece.

Posted by: astrosfan | October 24, 2008 at 10:30 AM

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