Cubs Re-Sign Dempster

I really like Dempster, and I would rather have him than Lowe or Burnett, so while I'm glad the Cubs are likely going to re-sign him, I really worry about his health and stamina down the road.

He could of just had a career year but Cubs needed pitching and got one. I think one year of Randy Johnson or if the Cubs ever get a deal done with Jake Peavy would be a nice 1 2 3 at the top of the rotation for the Cubs.

Call me a homer, but I don't think last year was a huge fluke. The BABIP was right in line with career averages, and 187 K in 206 IP doesn't scream career year to me in the sense that if he keeps up those splits, he'll maintain a mid 3s ERA.

The health does worry me, but I think a four year deal isn't too much to start wringing hands over. Hope this happens soon, he's one of my favorite players on the team.

"I expect him to end up being the next Jason Marquis. Just older and more expensive. And will probably land on the DL either this season or next."

That makes no sense. First, Marquis wasn't that good when signing with Chicago. His other numbers (BB/K/HR) were nowhere NEAR Dempster's. Nothing about his numbers indicates that it was a fluky year, although it will regress more to a 3.70-3.80 ERA. Still, I don't see how that's not worth big bucks in this market.

To call him the next Marquis is ill-informed and ridiculous.

I agree, I think Johnson has one year of about 130 IP left. I think he'd be a great addition to the rotation.

Can we platoon start Johnson and Harden? ;)

I think if the Cubs sign Johnson (w/ Dempster), we cpuld see the advent of the 6-man rotation, Harden and Johnson benefiting from the increase in off days, or at the very least Marshall will end up throwing as many innings as most starters.

Dempster's numbers actually support an ERA around 3.50, which if he is signed for 13M a year I'd say that's a very solid deal.

"The injury risk for Dempster is real, but I think his skills support a sub-4.00 ERA."

I think this is about right. In terms of performance, Dempster is fully capable of posting sub-4.00 ERA's through the duration of the contract, but his health is a very legitimate question. It was his first 200-inning, 30+ start season since 2002, and his durability is far from a good bet at this point.

That being said, this signing is nothing like Marquis', Dempster is a better pitcher with better upside, while Marquis' value lied primarily in durability. As much as I want to sign I would rather sign Lowe or Burnett, I'm sure Burnett will cost something like 5/75, and Lowe should get around 3/48 or 4/60, and Dempster may be a better bet at 4/52 or something.

Working as a reliever for 3 years after his surgery may have helped Dempster by keeping him at a light workload. He showed zero signs of fatigue last two months of the season to make him anymore of an injury risk than Burnett, Sheets, etc.

I think $52M/4 years is a pretty decent deal for both team and player. The one thing I am sure of is Dempster certainly will not sit back and count his money, he will continue to try to get better. That cannot be said about all of the free agents out there right now.

Also, the Cubs can afford to overpay a little and make a mistake or two. They sell out every single game, scalp their own tickets outside the stadium via team-owned ticket brokers, and have increased prices every year for the past decade plus. There is no reason whatsoever that the Cubs should not be competing with the Red Sox for the #2 payroll in baseball every season. The fact that the White Sox outspent the Cubs last season is a joke. I know, money doesn't win championships (obviously for Cubs this is true), but money shouldn't matter to this team.

Congratulations Cub fans. You now have your Kyle Loshe signed for four years. I think they didn't really have a choice, but four years for a 31 year old pitcher with a 76-81 record and 4.55 ERA isn't that exciting.

Peavy would be exciting though. And scary. I think if Z can not be the ace, he will be a better pitcher. Maybe this is the year he finally puts it all together and wins 20.

I want to go on record as saying 2008 will be the best year Ryan Dempster ever has in the Major Leagues.

nice signing

well liked, if healthy can put up a 200 inning 3.50 era year without much trouble.

hes a great number three for them.

i dont think johnson will go to the cubs, isnt he a socal resident? i know he was born and raised there

Really? This is a good deal? I have two words for everyone:

Carl Pavano.

$52 millon for a guy who had one good year is absurd.

This year was Dempster's highest K/BB ratio (2.45) of his 11 year career. In only one other year did he get above 2.0 (2000, Marlins).

I really hope this works out for the Cubs (I always have a soft spot for them), but I'm having a hard time ignoring the cold hard facts:

- barely league average K/BB this year, consistently under league average over his other 10 years
- a career 4.49 BB/9 and only 2 years under 4.0!

I have a huge amount of trouble accepting that sudddently after all this time, Dempster "got something to click" with zero signs beforehand. He's still putting a tons of guys on base, and it'll eventually even out against him.

They would have been better off letting him walk, and taking the draft picks while he's at his highest value; if I was a Cubs fan, that's what I would have preferred.

"Did the Cubs overspend market value for him?"

Jacob,

I think the market value for these #3-#5 pitchers is out of control. Wen players like Loshe and Silva are netting 7 figure per year deals, something is out of whack.

Although, it does make the market for the higher tier pitchers seem less like a huge salary dump. Would you take Dempster/Loshe/Lowe at 10-16 per year, or Burnett/Sheets/CC for 18-22+? I think it's an easy call.

I wonder, as a Red Sox fan, that what Wakefield might be offered if he hit the free market. His recurring $4M a year is ok for putting up league-average stats (usually settles in around a 100-105 ERA+ every year), but I wonder if some NL team would throw him 8+? It'd be interesting.

"calling him the next jason marquis is a little absurd, don't you think? i don't think dempster's as good as his last year either, but jason marquis has never been good. dempster's already been to 2 all-star games (both as a starter) and is like 3rd all-time in cub history for converted saves."

Dempster has been an All Star twice. He was the only Marlins rep in 2000. And this year. Neither time did he start. Dempster has had an ERA+ over 100 twice as a starter (120 in 2000, 151 this year). His ERA+ as a reliever was only 96 and 99 the past two years. And mentioning the number of saves converted is worthless. For your talk of Jason Marquis being horrible, his ERA+ the past two years has been 101 and 99. League average. When looking at Dempster's innings pitched, peripherals, and career ERA+, I think he's just a league average pitcher. Maybe a little better. Whoever compared him to Lohse is probably the best comparison there is. But Dempster is a higher injury risk. And injury doesn't always mean TJ surgery. He could develop a tired arm or shoulder soreness.

"Congratulations Cub fans. You now have your Kyle Loshe signed for four years. I think they didn't really have a choice, but four years for a 31 year old pitcher with a 76-81 record and 4.55 ERA isn't that exciting."

I love people who have to come in here and try to quell excitement. Lohse isn't half the pitcher Dempster is.

The guy had a huge breakthrough in ratios last year, so I'm not sure how people are calling it a fluke. I don't think any Cub fans expect a sub 3 ERA, but every projection system out so far pegs him anywhere from 3.50-4.05 ERA next year, which would be outstanding.

St. Louis overpaid for a fourth starter by a lot. The Cubs inked one to a very friendly deal who has a ton of upside. Risk is always going to be there in good deals, otherwise we'd be paying a guy with these numbers 16M a year instead of 12. Love the signing, welcome back Demp.

At least the cubbies matched the birds and handed out an equally scary contract... It's going to be really fun in 2011 when Dumpster and Soriano are making more $ than the enitre Florida Marlins roster.

"How is it that Dempster is still putting tons of guys on base? 1.21 per inning is much better than average. More hits will drop in, but he has margin for error if the control holds up."

This is the first time in his career his K/BB rate was this high. His control is very unlikely to hold up. Not only that, but he only allowed 14 HRs all season. He allowed 8 the season before in only 1/3 of the innings pitched! 21 was the minimum he gave up in any other year he started 25 or more games.

Who knows, maybe we'll make a run at Albert then as well when his contract expires in 2011. :D

"Not only that, but he only allowed 14 HRs all season. He allowed 8 the season before in only 1/3 of the innings pitched! 21 was the minimum he gave up in any other year he started 25 or more games."

Much of the success this year is attributed to the development of his splitter. I'm pretty sure that explains that. I doubt he'll allow 14 next year, but he's much better than he used to be at preventing the HR.

Studio179- i totally agree with how demp is a health concern but nobody else in the FA list aren't.

"Ummm, Lohse signed for 4 years, $41 million. Dempster for 4 years, $52 million. Who overpaid?"

St. Louis, is it hard to read?

Hey Cubby Fan,

Kyle Lohse has actually hown better skills over his career. As SaberGuy said Dempster has little control and his K/BB has always been below 2.00 except 2008.

Lohse has 5 seasons over 2 and as high as 2.89. I would argue that Lohse could be the better signing.

Also you have 6 seasons of stats as a starter to review from 98-03 for Dempster. His ERA in those seasons was above 4-5 except once.

"These comments remind me alot of the comments that I read when Hendry signed Ted Lilly. What has he done since he signed the contract? Only 32 wins in 2 years."

Wins are worthless. Lilly's ERA+ has been 122 and 109 the past two years. With 2 years to go, Cub fans better hope he produces at the same level he has the past two years.

I'm not buying the early stuff from Dempster. That was eons ago, and most of your starter samples are going to be taken from when he was a young and developing pitcher.

200 IP, 49 BB, 119 K, 18 HR, 1.30 WHIP, 113 ERA+
206 IP, 76 BB, 187 K, 14 HR, 1.21 WHIP, 151 ERA+

I will take player two every day of the week and Sunday for only 2.5M more per year.

"Wins are worthless. Lilly's ERA+ has been 122 and 109 the past two years. With 2 years to go, Cub fans better hope he produces at the same level he has the past two years."

Why wouldnt he? What has he shown to make you think is going to decline? Take away his first 5 starts last year and he was one of the best pitchers in the NL.

"Dempster isn't worth $12 million more than Lohse. Lose is also 2 years younger than Dempster. They're going to be about the same pitcher over the next 4 years."

12M over 4 years. 3M per year. It isn't that much money. You're talking an extra Bob Howry being the difference between a guy who put up a 113 and 151 ERA+ last year.

You literally have had no arguement to back your claims. Keep trying though.

Well first of all I think this is a good signing. I believe that this was not a fluke that he had a great year. He pitched this well when he was with Florida in 2003 I think it was. I am too lazy to look it up sorry. I believe he has won 14 and 15 games also. When he came to Chicago, he was going to be started but they didnt have a closer so he volunteered and was there for 3-4 years. He is a starter and as everyone saw you know what he can do as a starter. You wait and see next year he is going to be a good pitcher next year also.

Wall street just went nuts! The Dow just soared 10,000 points!! They figure if someone gave Dempster $52 million the recession must be over. Everyone keeps their home!! And just because their a large market team doesn't mean they are required by law to overpay for every FA they sign.

""12M over 4 years. 3M per year. It isn't that much money. You're talking an extra Bob Howry being the difference between a guy who put up a 113 and 151 ERA+ last year.

You literally have had no arguement to back your claims. Keep trying though."

He is just a typical Cubs hater. Tim...can we get an ignore function on here?"

Haha. I didn't know this was Russia. My argument is that Dempster put up a career year. His K/BB rate was the highest of his career. He allowed by far the least amount of HRs per inning in his career. His HOME ERA was 2.86 (which doesn't seem sustainable as Wrigley Field is a hitter's park). Yes, he put up a 151 ERA+ in 2008. But to sign a guy for 4 years at $52 million is absurd. The Cubs would have been better off letting Marshall pitch for $400K and giving the $52 million to a left handed starter.

Now, call me a Cubs hater all you want. That's fine. As a Dodgers fan, I love this move. You've tied up payroll for 4 years on a pitcher who isn't worth it. Maybe if you make it to the playoffs again the Dodgers or Diamondbacks can sweep you again next year.

"Now, call me a Cubs hater all you want. That's fine. As a Dodgers fan, I love this move. You've tied up payroll for 4 years on a pitcher who isn't worth it. Maybe if you make it to the playoffs again the Dodgers or Diamondbacks can sweep you again next year."

Haha...tie up payroll? Coming from the home state of Andrew Jones and Juan Pierre. Not bad....25 million on the bench. Those are some great moves.

"Haha...tie up payroll? Coming from the home state of Andrew Jones and Juan Pierre. Not bad....25 million on the bench. Those are some great moves."

You're forgetting Jason Schmidt. And the fact that the Dodgers can afford it. We can make mistakes and then correct them either with our deep farm system, or another FA signing.

"here's why i brought it up: he was put there out of necessity, and anyone who ever saw him close games knew he wasn't totally comfortable doing it. he walked a lot of guys, blew saves as many as anyone, yet still racked up a whole bunch as well. that tells me that while doing something he wasn't totally comfortable with, he still did a better than average job at it."

ERA+ as a reliever the past 2 years: 96 and 99. Less than league average. So no, he wasn't doing a better than average job at it.

Let me spell it out for you simply why the Dempster signing is a good one for the Cubs: look at the market this year and see what pitchers are commanding as well as what many predicted Dempster could make. The Cubs got him for much cheaper than other teams were reportedly willing to give him. The guy is 31 and just threw his best season, from a personal standpoint this was his year to go out and make a killing, but still he gave the Cubs a discount to stay in Chicago, since the Cubs ressurected his career after his TJ. This is also another reason why Demp is a good sign, he's a class act, a hard-worker who recognizes what helped him get where he is, congrats Demp, I for one will love watching you for the next four years.

Jason Marquis is NOT a 5th starter. I think it was last year or the year before Baseball Prospectus did an average ERA+ of the 5 SPs. The #4 pitcher in a rotation had an ERA+ of 100, while the #5 pitcher had an ERA+ of 85, if I remember correctly. Jason Marquis had an ERA+ of 99 last year. For the record, Ted Lilly was only 109.

"*head explodes*

So the Cubs can't afford it but the Dodgers can? You realize Chicago had a higher payroll this year right...?"

I believe you glossed right over the DEEP FARM SYSTEM. We signed Andruw Jones to make up for the Juan Pierre mistake. We traded from our farm system to get Manny Ramirez to make up for the Andruw Jones/ Juan Pierre mistakes. We brought up James McDonald, Clayton Kershaw to make up for Jason Schmidt.
Yes, you had a higher payroll last year. Mainly because half the Dodgers made less than $1 million last season.

DodgersBruin, Covering up bad signings with young talent doesn't make a good team, it means you have a crappy GM who gets bailed out by a good scouting director.

You cub fans love to play the Edmonds card. The Cardinals would happily do that deal over and over and over. The prospect they got from SD for Edmonds, David Freese, just went on to be voted the Cardinals minor league player of the year by BA. Fair swap if you ask me.

Thats not the point. The point is you payed Edmonds salary this year to wipe the floor with you this year.

"Thats not the point. The point is you payed Edmonds salary this year to wipe the floor with you this year."

Umm, I think it was the Padres who payed Edmond's salary. He was released by the Padres.

"It was, that's not the point. The point is that he said the Dodgers can afford to make mistakes and buy out of it and we can't. The mere fact that we're identical payrolls means that is incorrect."

No. MY point is that we have a farm system that allows us to get out of our mistakes. As you're noticing with your attempt to acquire Peavy, you don't have the farm system to make up for injuries or bad signings during the year.

"No. MY point is that we have a farm system that allows us to get out of our mistakes. As you're noticing with your attempt to acquire Peavy, you don't have the farm system to make up for injuries or bad signings during the year."

We acquired Rich Harden last year who was perhaps the best pitcher in baseball when he pitched for us. We just picked up a closer from last year. We're the front runners for one of the better pitchers in baseball in Peavy.

You have managed to deal the majority of your top prospects for Manny Ramirez who will now either walk or get vastly overpaid and Casey Blake.

Whooo go Dodgers.

DodgersBruin, that does not take into account the wind at Wrigley. When the wind blows in (which it does more often than not) it becomes a pitchers park. Dimensions do not tell the entire story of such a complicated ballpark.

Do some research of homerun rate with wind blowing in vs wind blowing out, you'd be amazed at the difference.

"edmonds hit .235 guys. it's not that big of a deal. he went 3-24 against the cardinals guys.

if your argument for picking up a very bad baseball player is that he hit two home runs in one game against the cardinals...grats... "

Come on dude. Good lord. No one judges one player by his batting average or what he does against one team (except Cardinal fans of course).

.937 OPS with the Cubs in 250 AB.

I meant overall dude

Neither won the World Series so who cares?

.OPS....a much more powerful stat than BA

"What are you referring to here? BA? Cause Molina, Schumaker, Miles all hit over .300

Glaus hit .270 with nearly 30 home runs. Lopez hit .385 after coming over from Washington."

I'm referring to OPS, which Edmonds had a higher one than anyone on the Cardinals except for Ludwick and Pujols (and yes, those AB of Felipe Lopez if you want to nitpick).

dodgersbruin-please continue to look up facts to back up my argument. he was always miscast as a reliever, as your ERA+ figures show. so i was wrong in labeling him above average at it (actual converted saves stats notwithstanding). point is, his value is at a starter, not as a reliever. i also think he won't be quite as good in the future as he was last year. but, please, continue to lecture us on questionable free agent signings such as schmidt, jones, pierre.