Rays Sign Joe Nelson

CL Percival
SU Balfour
SU Howell
RP Wheeler
RP Bradford
RP Nelson
LRP Niemann

Thats a damn good bullpen

Awesome job, again, Rays.

Now time for Percival to be "injured" all season and we can sign Ohman or give a chance to Rodriguez, Thayer, Salas, Talbot, prob others.....

Aside from Percival, check out the ERA's for the rest of the bullpen

Balfour - 1.54 ERA, 58 IP, 82 K
Howell - 2.22 ERA, 89 IP, 92 K
Nelson - 2.00 ERA, 54 IP, 60 K
Bradford - 2.12 ERA, 59 IP, 17 K
Wheeler - 3.12 ERA, 66 IP, 53 K

As long as Percival stays healthy, he can be dominant like he was the first couple month of the season. This could be one of the best bullpens in baseball next year.

Good signing.

Now: Trade. Wheeler. NOW.

Seriously. Best salary dump Friedman can make. The Rays have pen depth(Salas, Thayer, Rodriguez, Talbot, Niemann, etc.), they just need that top notch arm (Brian Fuentes).

FYI: Percival isn't coming back to life. He's done. The Rays need to release him and give the spot to Thayer or Talbot. I don't care about the 4MM. He was so below replacement level last year it was sad.

If Percival loses the closer role... whose next in line? I would hope not Wheeler. Balfour? Nelson?

"If Percival loses the closer role... whose next in line? I would hope not Wheeler. Balfour? Nelson?"

Depends. If Maddon wants to save Balfour for high leverage situations like he did in '08 (Balfour = "fireman" type, Wheeler = closer), which would be a smart idea, then expect to see Wheeler in the role.

But, again, a Wheeler trade is the best thing that can happen. I don't see him putting up an ERA under 4 next year, and I'd peg him at about 4.30-4.50, even higher.

And, you can easily, get a 4.50 ERA out of a non-closing reliever for cheap if you're smart about it.

why was there so much interest in a 33 year old journey man with 4 years and 4 teams under his belt? 2.00 ERA last year. but in 54 innings.

Time to get Milton Bradley for DH. If not, Giambi, Burrell, or Dunn. Forget Abreu. And Manny's too expensive. Bradley makes the most sense to me.

Or, what about that guy with the HR record? Is he available?

Bottomline: The Rays are still in it with the Yankees & Red Sox. Nelson is a great signing for their bullpen.

Here's to hoping Bradley also wants to sign before Christmas and wants to be a DH!

"why was there so much interest in a 33 year old journey man with 4 years and 4 teams under his belt? 2.00 ERA last year. but in 54 innings."

54 innings is a normal workload for a reliever. 4 teams in 4 years is a moot point, just because Jack Cust played for a bunch of teams didn't mean he wasn't a good player.

His minor league numbers and major league numbers have been outstanding. Great signing if you look further into the numbers.

Your move Red Sox.

well the Rays might add another piece in Bradley/Burrell/Dunn/Giambi/Abreu before the Sox even counter with anything. Now that Tex has signed, the rest of the DH/corner OF free agents should start signing. A lot of the free agents were wating to see where Tex signed so that they could garner interest in the teams that lost out. For example, the Nationals could go hard after Dunn. The pieces should start falling.

I wonder where experts would rank the Rays after the Nelson signing and a Bradley signing. Before the Nelson signing, they said the Yankees and Sox were pretty much equal with the Rays a very close second. Maybe a Bradley (who led the league in OPS, OBP, and top 5 in SLG) would put them back on top.

Wow, you'd think he'd get more than 1.3mil isnt easy to get a pretty good reliever on a 1 year deal.

Heh, Yankees

They sure spent a lot but outside of 1B, there defense is terrible, thats what gives the Rays the edge over them, another dog fight with the Sox in 09 for sure.

"Are people honestly talking like a Joe Nelson signing turns the tide in the AL East"

Him alone, no. But the Rays proved last year that a deep talented rotation and bullpen along with the best defense in MLB can win championships. On paper the Yankees are the best team, just like on paper last year the Tigers were. But this game isnt played on paper. On the field, the Rays are still the most talented, atheltic, durable group of players with the best defense in baseball. The Yankees rotation and line up is still top heavy, injury prone, unatheltic, defensive butchers, and old. The Rays (with the signing of a premier DH) are deeper from top to bottom in both their rotation, bullpen and line up.

Did anyone who knew anything about baseball really expect the 08 tigers to do anything? The lineup as a whole never really worked counts going into the year and they had 1 1/2 legit starters with no bullpen.

The Yankees' defense is by no means great but really the main hole is Jeter. ARod's passable, going into 08 Cano had been the third or fourth best 2b in UZR so I'm guessing last year was an aberration. The problem would probably be if Damon's playing center.

Jeter, Posada, Swisher (in center), Damon are all below average. Arod, Cano, and Nady are passable. Tex is well above average at 1B, however thats the least important defensive position.

A-Rod's really, really good defensively at 3B. How long that continues to be true as he ages is what is left to be seen. Cano is a bad defensive 2B though, not a passable defender.

So, they have above average defense at the corners, average in LF (Damon/Swisher), and below average everywhere else.

Nady's average at the corners. Swisher's above average at the corners. Damon somehow went from a +6.5/150 in 07 in center to -23.3/150 in 08 but was above average in left. I think Ellis was the only AL player in 07 with a better UZR than Cano at second.

Posada's obviously not as good as 06, not as bad as 08. Jeter's a mess, but somehow was average last year after solid declines for four years in a row.

Yeah, the Yankees really run the bases terribly..... And you know who's really athletic, Joey Gathright. You take 9 Joey Gathrights and I'll take 9 Jorge Posadas. Tell me who wins more games.

I don't get how you keep popping off with the "durable" thing. How many games did Crawford/Pena/Longora/Navarro miss last year? So really you're throwing skill and prior success out the window for intangibles.

I'm going to have to agree with Delmonmvp here about the lineups. I would rather have the Rays lineup over the Yankees, even with Teixeira's signing.

I like them because I love young, quick teams. I'm not a guy that is really concerned with big eye-popping power or RBI numbers. What I like is a good-contact oriented, put balls in play, high BA w/ RISP, situational timely hitting, teams. I'd rather have a team that slugs .450 as a team, but hits .300 w/ RISP as a team, than a team that slugs .550 as a team, but only hits .240-.250 as a team w/RISP.

Maddon is from the Mike Scioscia philosophy of:
-OBP is more important than BA
-Strikeouts are a negligible stat.
-Putting runners in motion is one of the best things to do.
-Speed is great.
-Great defense is key.

Let's settle this position by position. Let's compare the Yanks and the Rays.

C: Navarro/Posada- Even. What Posada brings with the bat, Dioner brings with the glove.

1B: Pena/Teixeira- Teixeira, but the gap is not as wide as some people want to make it out to be

2B: Iwamura/Cano- Even, assuming some rebound from Cano.

SS: Jeter/Bartlett- Even with Jeter's s#it defense, he's over Bartlett.

3B: A-Rod/Longoria- A-Rod, but same with 1B, gap is not as close as some think, and Longo has room for improvement.

LF: Crawford/Swisher- Crawford here. Better defender, and better offensively (both had down years in '08).

CF: Upton/Damon- Upton. Defense, both are massive SB threats, so defense is the selling point.

RF: Joyce/Nady- Even. Nady's 2008 was a fluke and he blows defensively. Joyce is good defensively and I see him improving with the bat.

DH: Can't call that one yet, but I'd take Bradley over Matsui.

It's a very, very narrow edge.

MrBlake, you are aware that for the most part success with RISP will fluctuate from year to year. So I guess that means Tampa will improve on their third worst in baseball average with RISP, right?

Projected wOBA and FIP (average of Marcel & James courtesy of Fangraphs.com)

Posada 0.367 Navarro 0.352
Teixeira 0.399 Pena 0.383
Cano 0.343 Iwamura 0.349
Jeter 0.357 Bartlett 0.319
Rodriguez 0.405 Longoria 0.376
Damon 0.344 Crawford 0.341
Swisher 0.351 Upton 0.385
Nady 0.350 Joyce 0.356
Matsui 0.356 Bradley .420

Averages 0.363 0.365

Sabathia 3.35 Kazmir 3.45
Wang 3.90 Shields 3.79
Burnett 3.77 Garza 3.63
Pettitte 3.82 Sonnanstine 3.99
Chamberlain Price (assumed as relievers so not included)

Average 3.71 3.72

If the Rays get Bradley, they project to be a better offense than the Yankees offensively. And these numbers dont even take into consideration speed, stolen bases or defense. Just pure hitting, slugging, and on base.

The FIP projections for Price and Joba were for relievers, so I didnt include them, should be close anyways.

As you can see, statistically speaking, the rays are just as offensively and possess roughly an equal rotation. However, if you buy into my theory of durability, age, speed, defense, and athletic ability, Rays get the clear edge all around.

Nady has been a fringe every day player his whole career. With PIT last season, his .330 BA was due to an unsustainable high BABIP. Notice that after he was traded to the Yankees he fell back down to earth, batting .268 in 228 at bats. Much closer to his career .280 BA. Further, in his rookie season last year, Joyce showed off great power hitting 12 homers in just 242 at bats. In roughly the same number of at bats (Joyce with the Tigers and Nady with the Yankees), Joyce out slugged and got on base at a much better clip than Nady. Joyce still has pleanty of upside. Not to mention he plays gold glove caliber defense, compared to Nady who is adequate.

Naavarro is on the right side of 30, while Posada is quickly degressing. A limited number of games behind the plate will ultimately hinder Posada's offensive potential. Navarro is a top defender, tops in throwing out base runners and is all around solid offensively for a catcher, where as Posada's arm is done, his knees wont hold up, and his offensive skills are declining.

@marlinsman1120:

Of course there is: ROOGY. LOL