Why The Braves-Peavy Trade Fell Apart

the padres are in a tough spot... everyone knows they need to shed peavy's contract, but they're acting like they are in a position of power.

they need to start thinking about getting what they can while they can get it

The gap in that trade is pretty sizable. Escobar is a solid player and Hernandez is a quality prospect. Morton over Reyes is a good pick because Reyes has had more starts at the major league level and has had only a few good ones while Morton has had fewer starts but has some good and some bad. The other part of the trade is the big part. Yes Boyer gives immediate help as an 8th inning guy or maybe closer but Locke and Flowers have much higher ceilings. I know Locke is a guy that they really liked. However I do think that Towers was demanding a little much. Escobar is the Braves starting SS, Hernandez is the number 7 propect, Morton and Reyes are back end guys, but Locke is the number 8 prospect and Flowers was the number 5 prospect. For Towers to want a starting SS and 2 top 10 prospects in one the better minor league systems is a little much. I think a fair trade would have been Escobar, Hernandez, Reyes, and Locke with the Padres throwing in a reliever.

That would have been awful if the giants traded for greene

Kevin Towers is not that dumb, although he did somewhat fudge up the handling of the Peavy trade. But then, he was backed into a corner, and many people do stupid things when backed into a corner by forces he cannot control (aka Moores).

Trading Escobar for Peavy would've been stupid on the Braves' part, even if it was straight up. Either do the deal with prospects or not at all.

I see jtd posted what I feel Wren should have offered given the above information. If I'm the GM and I know what is written above, I'm offering Escobar, Gorkys, Morton and Locke if I feel I have a good shot at Furcal. You still have Schafer, you still have Hanson, the difference between Morton and Reyes as the 5th starter is negligible...I'm just amazed if that was truly the sticking point and neither man was willing to budge just a little more for a deal that solves both teams immediate problems.

Escobar is the single best ML-ready player Towers could've hoped to get in a Peavy deal, and I'm honestly glad Atlanta didn't trade him. But after Yesco, the proposed package from Atlanta's side wasn't strong at all. Escobar/Gorkys/Morton/Locke is close to a fair deal but favoring SD, but Escobar/Gorkys/Reyes/Boyer would've been a fleece for Atlanta.

The problem I have with Towers & Co in this whole ordeal is the media leaks. It's freaking bush league. They went through the negotiations with both the Braves and Cubs so unprofessionally I'm surprised that anyone would still want to attempt a Peavy trade.

why would the Giants have made a run at Greene? I am sooo glad that Brian Sabean is gun shy right now.

Oh I agree. I don't think the Cubs situation got close to the value Towers was trying to get from the Braves. Perhaps in the end it would have since Vitters does have a high ceiling but he hasn't played above A ball. I remember seeing some Cubs fans saying he was a top 10 spect in all of baseball and just thinking wow. haha

melonis rex, I think KT backed himself into a corner by telling the media that he must move Peavy. By making it a foregone conclusion that he will be dealt, it made it more frustrating for everyone.

Fact is, the economy will affect the trade market just as it affects the free agent market (with the exception of the Yankees, who I suspect print their own money). Teams with more realistic financial constraints are going to be more likely to keep their cheaper prospects than go out and spend. Towers is out of touch and made some unreasonable demands by asking for a 7-1 deal. The way he has overplayed his hand is, dare I say, Boras-esque? For that reason, I don't blame Wren for pulling out. As a Braves fan, I'd be fine with just picking up Kawakami, resigning Smoltz, and getting a bat or two. If they look competitive early, there are good pitchers to be had mid-season.

Time to give Reagins a phone call...

Nick Adenhart, Brandon Wood, Reggie Willits, & Robert Fish
for
Jake Peavy & Kevin Kouzmanoff

I fully know I'm in the minority here, but I fully believe Towers has actually done a good job. For a guy of Peavy's talent, Wren and Hendry's offers were subpar at best... despite how much Cubs and Braves fans value their prospects/players.

Anyway, the biggest issue is Towers has had his hands tied by Peavy's NTC... it's really not different than when Smith tried to trade Santana. But now Peavy is starting to want to San Diego he's probably more willing to accept a trade to a few other teams thus opening up the market more and raising the value.

If that's true, then they were never close at all.

personally i think towers is a fool for passing up that offer - Yunel and Hernadez would of been a great pick up for them and i am sure if they would have just taken jojo the braves prob would of gave them Jeff Locke as well

The Braves may not be able to seriously compete in 09 but they do have a seemingly bright future. They could be pretty good in '10 and beyond with Hanson, Jurjens, Locke, Rohrbaugh, and Teheran anchoring the rotation (cheaply) and top prospects Heyward, Schafer, and Freeman joining (cheaply) Escobar and McCann. Add those cheap impact guys with a ~100M payroll to fill in the gaps the Braves have a chance to compete for a while.

If they re-sign Smoltz and pick up Kawakami, which both look likely, it wouldn't be a bad rotation for NL competition.

yea but the problem is they dont have 4 solid starters

Care to elaborate on that, or would you just like to repeat something I can clearly read 3 posts above?

Smoltz, Vasquez, Jair Jurrjins, and Kawakami would be four solid starters

well iam just gonna look forward to 2010 and give up on playoffs next season...looking forward to seeing heyward and freeman mostly, freeman is gonna be elite 1st baseman..

yea but the problem is they dont have 4 solid starters

Posted by: Z3R0 | December 14, 2008 at 11:27 PM

Thank you. Thats all im saying. Its far from a lock but it there is a chance. Kawakami could get shelled/not even signed and Hanson could struggle in the bigs but it could be that Kawakami proves to be a good #2-3 and Hanson has a Jurrjens-like rookie season.

i believe their is potential there - but too many question marks

smoltz coming off injury
hanson a rookie
who knows what Kawakami is going to do in the majors
and vazquez - thats all i got to say about that

i didnt say anything bad about JJ
And i do believe vazquez is going to do much better in atlanta getting out of that ballparkand coming back to the NL. i would watch the "stud #3 at WORST" comment - but i do think he will be a good #3

Z3R0: All very good points. There is a real chance that the rotation falters again next year. But you could look at this way (how I prefer to)

Smoltz- Before injury had a 2.00ERA in five starts in 2008. He is ahead of schedule in rehab and Cox was practically slobbering over him durring the mound session.

Jurrjens- Stud in his rookie season and there is strong indication that he should drop off.

Vazquez- 200IP and 200K+ are pretty much a lock. In the NL and under a much more compatable skipper he should post an ERA a bit below 4.

Hanson- A rookie and will likely spend a month or two in AAA-Gwinnet but has a case to be the #2 MLB pitching prospect in all of baseball behind Price.

Kawakami- Who knows? Pitchers like him (see Kurodi) have had decent success in the MLB.

*there is NOT a strong indcation

Braves fans, you guys are too funny. Please don't ever stop with your asinine comments. We need you to give the rest of the mlbtraderumors community a good laugh

With the name "Peavo" I'm not sure he needs to do any more elaborating.

You same people calling Towers a fool for taking these mid level prospects are the same ones who would bash Towers next winter when Towers (if he was foolish enough to listen to "you") for being so crazy to accommodate you Cubs and Braves fans by giving him away.

That is why many GM's do not like trading with Towers, he is shrewd and does not give away his players and he rarely makes bad deals, much less ones with known top pitchers like Peavy.

If there will be a changing of minds with regards to a swap, expect it to be on the part of Peavy and for it to be his to stop pouting about going to Chicago which has absolutely nothing that interest Towers tradewise and allow Towers to engage Anaheim, texas, Phillies and Boston if they are interested, teams that actually have something that San Diego needs and can use. IE: Controllabe and young, affordable pitching and outfielders.

Aduncaroo: Smoltz wants to start if his body will allow him and I believe that is his goal. He could pitch out of the pen but I think if he comes back, he will get at least the chance to start.

Braves 4 Ever, I'm a Cardinals fan so I'm not seeing this from a Padres point of view, but a 6-7 or 7-1 trade is only too much if you are the team who is giving up those prospects. It's not as if they are being forced into trading for Peavy. If they want him, then they have to pay the price. Period.

My wish for the braves that involves peavy:
Trade esco,gorkys,jojo, and locke for peavy.
Sign furcal
Sign Burrell
Re-sign smoltz to an incentive based deal.
If we come up a bit short on money for these three things trade soriano to free some cap space.
2009 lineup
1.Furcal
2.Yunel
3.Chip
4.Burrell
5.Mac
6.French
7.Kelly
8.Kotch
2009 Rotation
1.Peavy
2.Smoltz-Huddy takes his place in 2010
3.Vazquez
4.JJ
5.Morton
With hanson waiting in the wings if smoltz goes down or morton stuggles.
These things are definetly "do-able" if towers and wren both wud agrre to that package, and i garuntee that that team would compete in 2009 and beyond...

Interesting bill james projections http://cheapseats-blog.blogspot.com/2008/12/interesting-bill-james-projections.html

First, yes I'll be a little upset if we fail to improve our roster the rest of the off-season but more so that Wren did the Vazquez deal before being sure we had other moves finalized. I have no problem in a rebuilding year here and there but these half assed attempts to remain competitive by trading half a dozen prospects every season are going to catch up with us eventually.

i think they should build a team for 2010 while being competetive this year - i like the idea of signing oliver perez - perez has awesome stuff and is still young - if he can stay in control a little better and not throw wild he could be a very good pitcher for now and the future as a #3/4 starter - then trade for someone like ankiel or nady for a year until heyward is ready. call up shaffer and hanson sometime around may or maybe even give shaffer the cf job out of spring this year.

2010 rotation

hudson jj hanson perez vazquez

but thats just my opinion.

I think I would prefer Kawakami over Perez. They would likely provide the same resluts but with different price tags.

Just throwing this out there for you Z3RO...Ankiel for Mike Gonzalez.

I wouldn't say it's Towers' fault. Whoever leaked that managerial mandate probably screwed over any possible deal Towers could have gotten.

It depends on the pitcher but, it's not absurd to ask for 3 top prospects for a Cy Young winner. It's not absurd to ask for 2 elite prospects either. This deal would be akin to the Pedro or Randy Johnson deals that sent them away from their original teams in their prime. If someone in the FO leaked that they HAVE TO trade Peavy no matter what to cut payroll, then that severely impacts Towers' leverage.

Who is Smolts? Never heard of the guy...

On another note, if they sign that crafty veteran John Smoltz to an incentive laden deal, they have a high risk, high reward player.

And yes, I am feeling very sarcastic at the moment.

Atrocious trade? Renteria was coming off a season where he batted 332 and Gorkys came from a loaded Detroit OF with Jurrjens coming from what could have been a packed rotation with Dontrelle coming to town.

Hindsight's always 20/20. This didn't look so lopsided at the time.

If I'm Wren, I go after Ben Sheets & Adam Dunn. By January, Dunn will be getting a short-term deal that would be perfect for Atlanta in LF. With Bill James projecting Jorge Campillo to have a sub-4 ERA, I'm comfortable with him in the 5 hole. Sheets, Jurrjens, Vazquez, Morton, Campillo could be solid. Reyes is a nice swing man, and it gives Hanson some time in AAA.

Forget all this bs posturing between the Phillies & Mets. Wren has the capability to make the Braves the team to beat in '09.

I agree with basemonkey on this one, both front offices made mistakes, and both are to blame for the situation. The Padres had little leverage, but they also were not going to under sell their best player. It was a known fact for both sides, and the Padres shouldn't have changed their demands, and the braves shouldn't have made Locke or Morton sticking points.

Also the Pedro trade does made me check it out: it was for one season left on his deal and netted two players: Carl Pavano and Tony Armas Jr, two prized pitching prospects at the time (my how that changed), and the Red Sox than gave Pedro a 6 year 75 million dollar deal (7th option year at 17 million) which is about 120-145 million modern day money (depending on which inflation formula you use). Pedro was 26 at the time of the trade (Peavy is 27)

As for Randy Johnson, he netted Freddy García, Carlos Guillén, and John Halama at the deadline in 1998 (age:34). Then traded to the Yankees at age 41 for Javier Vazquez, Brad Halsey and Dioner Navarro plus 8.5 million in cash. Then at age 43 he was dealt back the Diamondbacks for 4 players, one reliever and 3 lower level prospects, thou Ohlendorf might become someone now with the Pirates.

So basically its a crap shoot, and none of the deals really relate to the Peavy situation, since for the most part when they were close to the same age it was either midseason deal (when value is highest) or with a single year left on the contract.

Maybe I'm biased as an SD fan, but there's no way I blame Towers for this.

Just because the Braves' offer was the best doesn't mean that it was a good offer for Peavy. Are we giving players away now? I mean, SD might as well throw Giles and Gonzalez in there too, if we're in "no place to negotiate because we're shedding payroll." It still has to be fair.

Second, most SD fans would be delighted to see Jake come back anyways, so I can't say I'm sad if this isn't working out. If we were to trade him, I'd want max return from the deal, but I'd much rather keep him and trade Giles for example.

Finally, I understand that this situation has aggravated Cubs and Braves fans for weeks. But you guys shouldn't be mad because the trade didn't happen. There are two sides to a deal, and just because you guys weren't able to acquire Peavy for a bad offer doesn't mean Towers is an idiot.

If anything, Wren and Hendry are on the spot in this deal moreso than Towers. SD will suck in 09 no matter what. The Cubs are expected to make a WS run, and the Braves don't want to finish 4th again.

The pressure is on Hendry, who's given quite a lot of money to a guy coming off a career year (Dempster), and replaced Wood by Gregg. Not sure those deals improve the team much from last year.

And Frank Wren has done even less, as he has yet to address his biggest need: starting pitching. He's also realized that he's probably going to miss out on all the top FA's and he's now looking at Javier Vazquez as his main guy. Nice pickup. That'll beat the Mets and Phillies.

Before you guys bash Towers, you might want to look at your own organizations and ask yourself what your GM has done to improve your teams from last year.

This doesn't necessarily excuse Towers for failing to strike a deal, but it seems to me that there's plenty of blame to go around, and Handry and Wren certainly deserve some of it.

btw west coast bias it was a really bad trade. Rent was aging and his range was swiftly deteriating and the tigers new this. The only reason thhey made this deal is cus they got greedy and wanted to put together a ridiculous offense and go for the WS ring. The second i watched video of jurrjens pitching against the twins i knew he would be good. It was a bad trade...

HAHA my mistake weekapaug i meant shafer batting 2nd and playing CF... I cant believe no one cought that or that i didnt notice lol

Braves aren't giving up Tommy Hanson. Why should they? Wren isn't going to call Towers, so when/if Towers calls Wren, what do you think would happen if Towers asked for Hanson? Dial tone.

The package should now be Hernandez, Reyes, Boyer and Medlen. Take it or leave it. Good bye.

if the report is correct then Wren made a HUGE mistake.

Lillibridge at SS and Peavy headlining the rotation is MUCH better than Vazuqez in the rotation and Escobar at SS. Also the Braves could've gone out and gotten Furcal back even though likely at the time it seemed at least as if Furcal was going to Oakland.

How is there great conflict over Morton or Reyes??? Are either ever going to be more than a 4th starter at best??

I do agree with them that they shouldn't give up Hanson for Peavy. Young controllable SP should be hoarded with the ridiculous escalating prices for SP.

The Atlanta/SD Peavy deal was drawn out much more than it should've been (of course you may say the same thing about the SD/Cubs Peavy deal).

My point is that, Peavy's agent saying just recently that he would consider Boston and New York is something he should've said a long time ago. Towers could find the talent he wants from Peavy in Boston's farm system, and of course Peavy would consider Boston and NY, they have the most money, he could request a big extension in return for approving a trade.

If Boston is serious about getting a starter, and weren't just in on Sabathia and Burnett to drive up the price, they could make a quick move on Jake Peavy.

100% Agreed Gstill45

This could be great move by Boston.

The Braves have said that Escobar is now off limits if any trade for Peavy is revisited. He can't be replaced with Furcal because Furcal is old and injury prone. If/when he gets hurt, there would be no one to replace him. The Braves also don't have a young shortstop in the system coming up any time soon. And Prado/Infante are NOT shortstops.

I like what someone above said. It's funny how Padre fans absolutely ignore the fact that Peavy is an injury risk. He missed a lot of time last year with an elbow injury and has missed time earlier in his career with shoulder problems.

I think a fair deal would be to give the Padres Gorkys Hernandez, Charlie Morton, Jo Jo Reyes, and Kelly Johnson for Peavy. That is actually a more than fair offer. Two starting pitchers, a starting second baseman, PLUS an A rated prospect.

"I like what someone above said. It's funny how Padre fans absolutely ignore the fact that Peavy is an injury risk. He missed a lot of time last year with an elbow injury and has missed time earlier in his career with shoulder problems."

Peavy has averaged 193+ IP/year over the last 6 years. As I was discussing this with Cubs fans, I pointed out that all Cubs starters except big Z had averaged less innings over the same period. Should I look at the Braves rotation?

Peavy is nowhere near the injury-prone pitcher some people make him out to be. He's had to miss some starts here and there (like any pitcher), but hes a good bet for around 200 innings every year, and his MRI earlier this offseason confirmed his arm was fine. No sure what else you guys need.

"I think a fair deal would be to give the Padres Gorkys Hernandez, Charlie Morton, Jo Jo Reyes, and Kelly Johnson for Peavy. That is actually a more than fair offer. Two starting pitchers, a starting second baseman, PLUS an A rated prospect."

Despite the fact, that neither of those pitchers have any value at MLB level, once again I don't know what Kelly Johnson, who is one year removed from a lucrative deal in free agency, can do for us in our efforts to rebuild in the mid term. Johnson is a nice addition for a win-now team looking for a one-year rental second baseman, but he has limited value for SD.

KJ is entering his first arbitration year this season. He will be arbitration eligible for the next 3 seasons and then become a free agent. I personally don't think he makes a ton of sense for the Padres because they aren't really going to be ready to compete until 3 years from now if they trade Peavy, but I thought I should point that out.

Its also a little ridiculous to say that Morton and Reyes have no value at the MLB level. Neither was really any worse than Garrett Olson (the O's prospect that was supposed to go to SD) and the Padres apparently place at least some value on Morton because they held up a deal apparently in hopes of getting him over Reyes. Honestly, I'm hopeful the Braves don't move Morton this offseason. He's got the stuff to be a good #3 if he ever figures things out mentally and if not his fastball curve combination could be pretty good coming out of the bullpen.

With the risk of Peavy getting injured, I don't think anyone is suggesting it is a foregone conclusion or anything that he will get injured, but I think the general consensus is that he is a greater risk to need major surgery than your average SP. Its certainly something other teams take into account, and the risk of Peavy getting injured is a big time risk if the Padres keep him because it would essentially cripple them financially with over 1/3 of the payroll tied up in a pitcher that's out injured and completely immovable because of his contract.

Sure the drop off from Peavy to Vazquez is huge, but so is the drop off in prospect cost of acquiring Peavy over Vazquez. Peavy was going to cost us a top 10 ML SS, a solid CF prospect, and a ML ready SP in addition to Thomas Flowers. Vazquez cost us Flowers, a utility IF, and two guys who couldn't crack the Braves top 25 prospects.

The Braves starting rotation may not be set and it may not be a strong suit, but I don't think its nearly as bad as you make it out to be. JJ and Vazquez are pretty well known quantities, James is projecting another good season for Campillo (sub 4 ERA), the Braves have a bunch of young guys who can compete for a rotation spot (Reyes, Morton, and Hanson), and they have another 30-35 million to spend. Sure its not set by any means, but what SP have they missed out on except CC and Burnett? Its not like they should be in panic mode right now or something.