Jones Doesn't Fit In Cincinnati

Jones needs to understand that he's not good, hasn't been good for a while now, and that few people believe he will be good again. Maybe that'll be enough to inspire him to put the Big Mac down and swing the bat a little better. Till then, he's a has-been, no-hit, no-field AAA player.

go figure- its hard to move a guy with a spectacular attitude and is very into staying fit and saying the right thing? What kind of guy can say with a straight face that he is already looking forward to his next free agent year? I guess it must be pretty slow down in the DR this winter. What a POS! He and Boras are perfect examples of why sports are getting more and more screwed up.

That is a reason to take a chance though, he would be playing for his next contract

There is no where for him to play in Texas, they have too many outfielders as is.

As a Braves fan, I know all too well how Andruw's work ethic and attitude effect his performance, but I'd still like to see him back in Atlanta, playing LF.

For the amount of money that it would cost the Braves ($2 or $3 million) I don't see much of a downside. If he struggles, platoon him with Matt Diaz. If he falls flat again, release him.

I think he needs to go to a team where he'd feel comfortable. Atlanta's the only place that makes any sense.

Frank Wren hasn't done much this off season, and while this wouldn't be a move to put the Braves over the top, it would potentially solve their LF and power hitting problems if Andruw could rebound to even half of his 2005 self.

Joba: "Kei Igawa has twelve mill left on his deal but I doubt LA wants to do that"

That might actually be worth exploring. Igawa *might* be able to cut it as a 5th starter in the NL west. Of course, the last thing the Yankees need is another OF riding the pine. At least Igawa can stay out of sight in the minors.

Jones doesn't fit....anywhere.

"More generally, Fay cites Jones' rapidly declining OPS as a reason for the Reds to stay away. Unfortunately for Jones, that reason to stay away applies for every team."

Ouch. Wal-Mart greeter an option?

As a Braves fan who grew up watching Andruw, I'd be lying if I said I don't want him back if the price is right.

What I DON'T want to see, however, is Andruw being brought back as the team's
only OF addition of note.

Giving Andruw a shot at CF is fine, but if the team goes into '09 with an OF of Jones/Anderson-Blanco-Schafer/Francoeur I will put sugar in Frank Wren's gas tank.

Bring in Andruw on the cheap and sign Dunn or Abreu. If Andruw sucks there are 3 viable CF's in the system to replace.

I would take a flyer on Jones but I would want one of the Dodger's young SS's to come with him.

Wait til he gets released, pay him the 400K and if things don't work out, put him in the mascot suit. Too bad the Indianapolis Clowns are defunct...

the dodgers aren't going to include anyone in a trade with Jones, unless they're getting some real value. They'll just release him, instead of letting De Jesus or any prospect go. They've finally learned that home grown talent is what wins. The only way, actually, I think they'll work a trade is if a couple of teams think they want to "catch lightening in a bottle" and get Jones cheap. Maybe then the Dodgers can work a trade for a prospect or a back-of-the-rotation type pitcher.

"I find the Andruw Jones hate to be pretty hilarious. No matter what his body might indicate, he is still among the better defensive CF in baseball. In fact, UZR had him ahead of both Ellsbury and Beltran in terms of FRAA per 150 games (twice as good as Beltran in fact) last season. Honestly, Andruw doesn't have to make a huge recovery offensively to still be a valuable player. Despite his bad numbers in 2007, Andruw was still a pretty valuable player (36 TRAR). If he can just bounce back to that form offensively, he's probably around league average in CF."

Defense aside (which I will admit Jones can still track a ball--and hamburger--like nobody's business), you have to admit that there is something much more serious than a slump or knee injury here. Jones has never performed so poorly in his entire career. At first I thought it was mental, but I don't think that is the case. He has declined so violently and quickly I'm not convinced that he will ever recover.

BTW, that is probably as nice as you are ever going to hear me talk about Jones. To be perfectly honest, I have not been that crazy about Jones for a long time. I respect his ability--because he used to be great--but I was really worried when he came to the Dodgers. Also, I feel that while the Dodger fans did disrespect him, he disrespected us as well. He is collecting the highest annual salary of any Dodger ever, when he accepted that salary he should have known that there would be a bullseye on his back if he didn't put up big numbers. Instead he has the worst season of his career and doesn't seem to care about his lack of production or what us fans think. It's a bad situation all around and the best thing for all parties involved is for Jones to go to another team one way or another.

drphonic,

I agree. He seems to be so stubborn as well. The Dodgers have one of the best hitting coaches in baseball and Jones never tried to change his approach at the plate. They even got Jones his own personal hitting coach and he looked exactly the same as he did in his first at-bat as a dodger. The same can be said for his weight. He was criticized the entire season because of his weight and did nothing to change it. If he didn't want the pressure he should have signed in another city. You can't really feel too bad for a player that doesn't want to change and still is horrible.

just to be fair Mattingly wasn't around much.

It hasn't just been the knee injury with Jones. There was also the elbow injury that plagued him throughout the entire 2007 season. I remember hearing whispers about the Braves worries of his body breaking down all the way back in 2006. Still I don't think its impossible that after basically taken the 2nd half of last season off and having a full off season to work on his problems, that he can at least recapture a bit of his old offensive hitting abilities. I'm not saying Andruw of 2005 or anything, but even Andruw of 2007 would be league average if his defense is still where it was last season.

As for Jones joining the Braves, I don't see the problem with giving him 4-6 weeks to try and prove he still deserves a spot in the minors. If it doesn't work, then Anderson or Schafer (if ready) can take over full time. At worst we're out a fringe prospect and maybe a couple hundred grand.

As for Andruw saying he doesn't care what the fans think, well why should he? He didn't hold a gun to Colletti's head to get that contract, and he basically did the same things he's been doing since he came into the league (in terms of preparation and training). Clearly he needs to change things up at this, but what he's been doing was enough to make him a 1st ballot HOFer (at least it should be enough), so I can't really blame him for being stuck in his ways.

"Actually 1st ballot is probably too strong...still he should be a no doubt HOFer, but I have serious worries about whether or not that will be the case."

You beat me to it. Also, as Colletti stated earlier this week, I'm not sure if any player has ever declined as quickly as Jones has. This may have a negative effect on when he makes it into the HOF. I don't think that you can blame his performance on health. His approach at the plate was terrible and to simply say he lost a few steps in the outfield is an understatement. His defensive abilities may return if he gets into better shape.

My discussion of his attitude is in regard to the fans despising him. Which, BTW is the main reason he agreed to restructure his contract. He wants out of LA as bad as we want him out. I can't remember a hometown player that the fans have given such a hard time. If he wanted the fans to embrace him while he was performing so poorly, he should have "manned up" and at least admitted that he was not playing up to par and is trying to fix whatever problems he has (kind of how istringhousen--not sure if I spelled that right--did last year with the Cards). I would have respected him more.

the cubs can take a flier on him.we turn other peoples junk into magic.please let us have him for 500k.

When I saw Andruw this season, he honestly didn't look any bigger than he did his last few years in Atlanta. While he was skinny when he first came up, he's been pretty think for awhile now, and has probably been pudgy for about 5 years. While he may have lost a step, he isn't anywhere near as bad as people make him out to be defensively. People just look at the body and assume that he's gone way down hill defensively, but he's always relied on reads and good breaks more than speed anyway. As I mentioned earlier his UZR/150 games last season was better than either Ellsubry or Beltran. The year before that (remember he had the knee injury this year), he was still 20 runs better than average. To put that into perspective, Beltran hasn't done better than 7 better than average in his career and Ellsbury couldn't even put up 1/2 that number this year.

As for the whole HOF thing, I really think people really underestimate just how good Andruw was defensively. UZR on fangraphs only goes back to 2002, which misses Andruw's peak defensive years, but it has him as 131 runs better than average total defensively over that period with an average of 22.3 runs better than average per 150 games played. I don't know if there is any other player in baseball at any position that can even touch that. Adam Everett, who is constantly praised by stat guys as an amazing defensive SS has "only" managed to average 16.6 per 150 games. Of the guys I could think of off the top of my head, that was the closest I saw to Andruw.

I accidentally left out that even with positional adjustments, Andruw's 22.3 FRAA would still be better than Everett's 16.6, which would translate to ~21.6 FRAA in CF

nixa37,

Notwithstanding his past two seasons, I still see Andruw as a likely HOFer based on his first decade.

If he really has broken down physically and can't rebound, however, he might not get in, especially if he continues to try to play for another 5 or 6 years and just plain can't.

not five more thats an exaggeration, if he came back broke 400 and got his reputation back to respectability he would DEFINITELY get in

Nixa,

What you have to keep in mind too is that defense is much less valued than offense in baseball (which I feel is not fair, but nonetheless, it is the case). For example, have you ever played in the fantasy league offered by mlb.com? Defense is not even taken into account.

Basically, what I'm trying to say is that while Jones did have great defensive abilities (and is still good defensively), he would have to improve offensively for the remainder of his career to make it into the HOF. When was the last time a player made it into the HOF based solely on defensive ability alone? Jones was great for quite some time, but if he continues down this path I question his future in the MLB, let alone the HOF.

Melonis,

To be fair, if he had done what you suggest, Andruw wouldn't have just been in the HOF, he would be without a doubt first ballot quality. If he had managed to play into his mid 30's with steady decline we'd be looking at arguably the greatest defensive CF of all time, who would also happen to have over 500 career HR. I don't think you can be much more of a lock than that would make Andruw.

I would give up Daryl Thompson and say a couple B/C level prospects for Jones/Hu but nothing more then that. Jones is below replacement player right now and there is a chance he could rebound, but no team no matter how cheap Jones is is going to give up anything of value for the chance.

Hu is pretty much blocked with Furcal signed and DeJesus on the way, and I think his prospect status is similar to Thompson's with the Reds.

Arroyo actually has value and a decent track record the past couple of years so I can't see him going just to pick up a SS prospect that hasn't done really anything in the majors after a couple of chances.

For the most part I rather run Dickerson out there every day over Jones or Taveras for that matter, so something of value would have to be kicked in just to help the Dodger's out a little.

As for right now Jones isn't a HOF player. His stats just don't warrent it. Unless he rebounds and gets to 500 homers he's on the outside looking in. His offensive stats just aren't good enough considering the era in which he played. Low average, low OBP, high strike outs, very good power and a great glove. If Dale Murphy can't get in then Jones definately isn't good enough.

"I totally agree that defense is incredibly undervalued by the average baseball fan (and probably BBWAA). I'm still holding out hope that Andruw will fall into a similar category to Ozzie (Ozzie was more valuable defensively, but Andruw was more valuable offensively), where the writer's consider him because he played such great defense at an important position. I'm also hopeful that by the time he comes up for election, the stink of last year will have washed away. I think when people look back they'll realize that the beating he's taken in CF has as much to do with his decline as anything else. In the 10 seasons from 1998-2007, Andruw played just short of 13750 innings in CF, with his body taking a constant pounding. That's an average of 8.5 innings in CF for every game the Braves played during that decade. Playing how he played in CF, that's going to take a massive toll on your body."

I'm not sure, but if you saw Jones day in and day out last year, I think that you would agree that his performance can't be solely due to his health. I've never seen Jones look like that at the plate. He's always had that sloppy swing (not a pretty one like Griffey Jr.) but last year looked different. He nearly fell down with each swing. I don't think that that is due to a physical breakdown. Maybe its still a mental thing, but he has to be willing to work harder and change his approach if he ever wants to even approach being the player he once was.

I think a team that is interested in some of the Dodger's expendable youth will take him on just to get said youth. Its not interest in Jones, its interest in what they can get for taking Jones.

I agree that nobody is going to pony up anything good or even mediocre for Jones when if they wait they can probably get him for a further discount.

I highly doubt that he plays for the minimum though. I'd say 2.5 is as low as he goes.

I highly doubt that he plays for the minimum though. I'd say 2.5 is as low as he goes.

Posted by: schellis | January 03, 2009 at 08:27 PM

Im not saying your wrong, you might be correct, but if he has to he has to, he wants another deal for 2010 and beyond!

Another thing to consider with Manny is because he is such a great hitter he makes those around him better. Pitchers want nothing to do with Manny, I don't think that has ever really been the case with Jones. For example look what David Ortiz became when he joined the Sox and started hitting in front of Manny.

Considering that Corey Patterson got 3 million last year to play good defense in CF and be hopefully mediocre to average with the bat I really believe some team will give Jones at least a couple of million.

The important thing for him is to get some place that he can restore value. Same thing I've said about Baldelli.

It doesn't take much to go from all-star MVP caliber player to defensive replacement/power bat off the bench. Take Tony Clark for example (he's not a gold glove 1B but a similar hitter) By 29 he had gotten himself into that role and pretty much has stayed there even with a impressive 2005 year.

Another thing to consider with Manny is because he is such a great hitter he makes those around him better. Pitchers want nothing to do with Manny, I don't think that has ever really been the case with Jones. For example look what David Ortiz became when he joined the Sox and started hitting in front of Manny.

Posted by: schellis | January 03, 2009 at 08:31 PM
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The actual studies done on this actually show a negative correlation between protection and performance, meaning that hitters actually perform slightly worse with better hitters behind them, though the difference was statistically insignificant. Honestly the idea that having better hitters behind you gets you better pitches to hit is a complete myth and really should be an antiquated notion at this point. Oh and Ortiz broke out with the Sox in 2003, a season where he was batting 5th the vast majority of the time, while Ramirez hit 4th. Ortiz didn't move up to 3rd until the next season, and even then he was batting behind Manny about 1/3 of the time.

I agree with Jones being far superior to Murphy with the glove, but it doesn't change that he hasn't done enough with the bat to warrent election at this moment.

To me someone like Dawson and Murphy are more worthy of the spot then Jones is right now.

Right now he's similar to Edmonds and I don't think Edmonds has a chance to be a HOF player.

Ozzie Smith wasn't a complete 0 with the bat, and I do think that he got in a little to easily because he's a fan favorite and well liked.

I was running under the assumption that the team recieving Jones would also be taking on all 5 million of the salary.

If the majority of the money is being picked up by the Dodgers then of course they wouldn't throw in anyone of value.

However since teams know they can keep their talent and get him for a little more cash they are likely to just let the Dodgers release him and pick him up for a couple of million.

I think the only way the Dodgers get anything of value is to package him with a young player without picking up any of the remaining contract.

cutmeibleedblue,

J.C. Braedbury, of The Baseball Economist and sabernomics.com fame, is the guy who did the study. He wrote about the study and its results in the book, and at one point he had the article itself linked, but that link is now dead.

This is the blog entry on the original study with the broken link:
http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2004/09/the-protection-externality-it-doesnt-exist/

He has also addressed the subtraction of Manny behind Ortiz and the addition of him to the Dodgers lineup and found little if any evidence to support the claim that the change in Manny's address had any real affect on the performance of those around him.

Those posts are linked on this page:
http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?s=protection

As for Manny making his teammates better offensively, I think Andruw has had that effect (albeit for a relatively short period) when he was slugging the 51 home runs in 2005 and early in 2006.

Also to his advantage is that he's made the rest of his outfielders better defenders. Certainly in Atlanta he told the corner outfielders where to stand and gave them tips on what to expect. Just look at the massive fall off of Francoeur's defence this year for evidence of that.

His book sounds kind of like "Freakonomics" (by Steven Levitt) from a baseball state of mind. Can't find the article though. I would be shocked if it were in a major journal, most academics would scoff at measures like these and consider them to be unworthy of publication.

Look, I understand the argument against Andruw if you think every single player should have to reach certain offensive benchmarks to reach the HOF. Personally, I think the HOF should be reserved for the players who were most valuable in their career/prime in terms of the number of runs they were worth to their respective teams. I think if you use the 2nd standard, Andruw is clearly a HOF.

Nixa,
I dont buy it, Manny made the Oritz and then Either better

As for Ethier, here's a study on the pitches he was getting before and after Manny arrived. There isn't a significant difference between the two, so any increase in Ethier's performance was likely caused by luck placebo effect.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=1042

As I mentioned earlier, David Ortiz clearly wasn't a creation of Manny Ramirez. He posted a 144 OPS+ batting behind Manny in 2003 and then upped it all the way to 145 when he moved in front of Manny the next season. David Ortiz just continued to develop after leaving Minnesota (he did post 120 OPS+ his last year there) and happened to spend a good portion of that time in front of Manny. To act like he wouldn't have been great without Manny behind him is just ludicrous, not to mention a slap in the face to Ortiz.

BTW saying you don't buy something when you've never even read the actual study in question (I mean the actual study Bradbury wrote, not some summary of his findings) is an incredibly ignorant way of approaching things. Seriously, an actual PHD in economics took the time to study the issue at hand, but you're choosing to disregard that work because you're pretty sure Ortiz sucked before going to Boston (he didn't) and batting in front of Manny (he didn't in his breakout year) and pretty sure that Ethier did better with Manny batting behind him this year. Do you not see the difference between a scientific study and anecdotal evidence from 2 situations?

nixa,
chill bro, once the incredible football game is over, ill take the time to read the study...I still think he helped both guys put up great numbers though

Yeah that should have said luck or placebo effect. I wasn't conflating the two phenomena, just attempting to say that either or both could easily lead to an increase in performance.

I also understand that every study should be taken with a grain of salt, but this wasn't a case where Bradbury was looking to disprove the notion of protection, and came up with the stats to support it. He did an in-depth study to see if there was a statistically significant effect of the ability of the on deck hitter on the performance of the current batter. Obviously there could be flaws in his methodology that could have lead to bad results, but I don't remember anything in particular jumping out.

Also, just to be clear, I'm not trying to argue that its been proven that there is no effect of protection, just that I have yet to see a study that finds a statistically significant effect and I'm 99.9% positive such study doesn't exist. Without any evidence that there is a statistically significant effect, I think the argument that Manny had some massive effect on the abilities of the guys batting before him, to the point where it makes a significant difference in his HOF case, is not only unfounded, but also clearly ridiculous.

"Without any evidence that there is a statistically significant effect, I think the argument that Manny had some massive effect on the abilities of the guys batting before him, to the point where it makes a significant difference in his HOF case, is not only unfounded, but also clearly ridiculous."

I wouldn't go as far as to say "ridiculous" because to my knowledge there is no study indicating that there is statistical significance for the contrary either. In other words, there is no empirical test that indicates that a hitter like Manny has no significant effect on the batter that precedes him in the lineup. Does that make sense? If it can't be proven either way, they the results are inconclusive (which is a legitimate finding). Its a stretch to call a theory that has been tested a single time a "paramount" theory that explains a phenomenon. No other similar studies exist because such a study is frowned upon by the social science community (and academia as a whole). I have never seen a study even somewhat similar to this one and believe that there are few scholars that are able to progress throughout their academic career with a focus on sports (except in regard to sports medicine and the like). I'm sure the guy wrote his doctoral dissertation on something baseball related, which would never fly in most programs.

nixa,

I'm not arguing, i'm just intrigued. Also, even if Bradbury's study indicated that Manny's presence did have a statistically positive effect on the rest of the lineup, I don't feel that should be a major contributor to whether or not he is inducted in the HOF. I just find it interesting that this study found these results. I'm not arguing just "critiquing". And that is only because it is really difficult for me to believe the results, that's all.

BTW, I respect you man. you seem like an intelligent guy who can actually carry on an intelligent argument and conversation, not like some of the idiots on this site that threaten your life because they disagree with you (no lie actually happened to me yesterday on this site).

Hahaha...we had an actual threat on someone's life? I'm not that surprised but still...

Anyway, I think I'm out for the night. Take it easy

"As a Braves fan who grew up watching Andruw, I'd be lying if I said I don't want him back if the price is right." - baleen

At this point all Jones would be doing is blocking players that can play the game. Most teams wouldn't want that if the price was "free".