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Odds and Ends: Prospects, Alfonzo, Zimmerman

Links for Wednesday...

  • Cardinals GM John Mozeliak subjected himself to all kinds of questions from fans today in an online chat.  It sounds like he might do a little spring tinkering.
  • It seems that the Angels will go with internal options for the fifth starter job.
  • The Rangers, Rays, and A's are atop Keith Law's farm system rankings, with the Tigers, Nationals, and Astros bringing up the rear.
  • Orioles infielder Oscar Salazar is likely on the chopping block to make room for Gregg Zaun.
  • Kyodo News reports that Edgardo Alfonzo will try out for the Yomiuri Giants.
  • Dave Sheinin says Kevin Youkilis is a good comp for Ryan Zimmerman.  The midpoint between Zimmerman's and the Nationals' arbitration submissions would be a $3.325MM.
  • I sincerely appreciate all the submissions for the Saturday evening writer gig.  I'm happy to welcome D.J. Blatter aboard as our newest blogger.


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Comments

go fonzzy go!

Hey Tom what are the Cub's rated at?

Yeah I'd like to know the Padres rating as well if its not too mcuh to ask.

Just wait braves fans, come 2011, we could have one of the games best pitchers in Tommy Hanson and hitters in Jason Heyward.

Combine those 2 guys with our young stars already in the majors like Mccann, Escobar and Johnson, along with our top prospects like Freedie Freemans (1B), Shafer (CF), and pitchers Cole Rohbrough, Jeff Locke and Jurrjens and we could be looking at a hell of a run.

GO BRAVES.

Youkilis >>>>>> Zimmerman

WELCOME TO THE TEAM D.J. !!!!!!

welcome on board, dj.

can anyone post the rankings for us non-espn insiders? i hate espn...

I'd have to disagree, Tough. If I were to choose between Youkilis or Zimmerman to start a team, it would have to be Zimmerman. He's got gold glove defense at 3rd, not to mention he's considered as a franchise player. Zimmerman is 5 years younger than Youkilis.
Zimmerman's strikeout rate is .67 Ks a game, while Youkilis is .745.
Their career batting averages are similar: Zimmerman's is .282 while Youkilis' is .289.
SLG% is also closely similar: Zimmerman's at .462, Youkilis' at .472.

Zimmerman's still improving, and when he reaches his potential, he'll definitely be a much better player than Youkilis.

So you've greatly exaggerated Youkilis' value over Zimmermans.

Come 2011, both Hanson and Heyward could decline.

Wouldn't be too much to ask for someone to list the full organizational prospect rankings, would it?

Where the fricking hell is Pedro Alvarez on this list?

Sweet Pat Burrell is his 11th best prospect, ESPN failures.

i'm kind of pleasantly surprised that KLAW has the Phils 11th. Although I totally disagree with his assessment of Carrasco. His end of year at AAA and winter ball was pretty good. I think if he starts off AAA well he could be a fairly early callup given a need.

And to me Daniel Murphy and Jason Donald are comparable types. Both seem like Mark Derosa types.

AROD,

ya you need to go to the archive and then re-route yourself through there to see the list. I only got to 51-75 before i threw my computer out the window.

Dammit Ned!! I honestly thought that Jon Meloan was the hard piece to give up in the Casey Blake deal and then Santana goes off and makes himself a top 20 prospect. i sure hope Blake's worth for the whole contract; unlikely but i can hope.

PhilsWS could you paraphrase Law's Phils org writeup here?

Where'd we rank out in terms of top 100 guys as well?

Thanks

I don't care enough, KLaw is a tool and an awful talent evaluator.

Bah, they took down the top 100, saying check back Thursday.

wayne,

all i got to was Donald at about 48 and he bashed him up and down as not a regular player etc. Carrasco was 60 but reference more his arm injury and AA stats than his AAA stats and winter league #'s. Typical reason we all bash him, LOL!! Only got thru 51-75 before i completely gave up at the idiocy that is ESPN's website. And now you can't even get on it past 1-25.

Fernando martinez is ranked 10 out of 100 pretty exiting for the mets.

actually Fernando is ranked 16th but that's only because KLAW has always had a thing for him. Two years in AA speaks for itself. He also references that he may still stay at AA.

actually Fernando is ranked 16th but that's only because KLAW has always had a thing for him. Two years in AA speaks for itself. He also references that he may still stay at AA.

He's 20 years old dude. The fact that he's in AA at that age is impressive.

"I don't care enough, KLaw is a tool and an awful talent evaluator.

Posted by: ArodSucksAtLife"

Just speculating, but you might be my polar opposite.

Zimmerman/Youk is actually a decent comparable. Read the article, Tough.

He's just played his second season at AA, dude. And as Keith references he can't stay healthy. He hasn't played more than 100 games in any one of his three pro years. Is he a very good prospect, YES, but I might take a Mike Stanton ahead of him at this point (who is ranked 31) from the Marlins who is also 20.

BleedinBlue

Youk has gold glove defense at 3rd and 1st. So I believe the defense is a moot point.

However, over the last 2 seasons Youkilis has been the better player. Opposite of Zimmerman, as Youkilis's average raised so did his HR numbers. Youkilis has had 60 points higher OBP the last 2 years. I feel as if Youkilis is improving and a better rate than Zimmerman.

The age difference is definitely a plus for Zimmerman, but Youk would be the guy I chose first.

oh and I'd already take Cameron Maybin ahead of Fernando Martinez. And Keith has him 29th.

he has been injuried for some part to two years ago and this year theyve said he will start in AAA and maybe make a debut.

i was surprised to see vitters that high. i didn't think he would crack the top 30, to be honest. does anyone know where the cubs' system ranked? (i'm afraid to find out)

Wern't the nationals in the top ten last year what happend?

Where the fricking hell is Pedro Alvarez on this list?

Posted by: BadAndy | January 21, 2009 at 03:03 PM


38th.

On behalf of all Angel fans I would like to thank Reagins for apparently passing on Pat Burrell, Adam Dunn, and now Ben Sheets.

I'm sure that GMJ with his 3/33 remaining contract will contribute so much more than Adam Dunn. And while Dustin Mosely and Nick Adenhart (at this time) are decent fillers for the #5 role, it pisses me off that we might be passing on Ben Sheets when his price tag might be as low as $9m.

Youkilis is significantly better than Zimmerman. Youkilis' OBP is about 45 points higher for their careers, and it's a bigger disparity over the last couple years. I'd sacrifice those 7-10 HRs for 60 OBP points any day. Just different type of players.

The Cubs are 27th.

I imagine the Nationals weren't in the Top 10 of a lot of people's "Top 10 NL systems not counting the teams from California" lists last year. Not a strong system.

Yeah, so could someone be a dear and post the Organizational Rankings?

Youkilis is going to be 30 this year, while Zimmerman is 24... I don't think it is too wise to compare these 2 players just yet, but if you put Zimmerman in Boston's lineup and Youkilis in a Washington lineup we would be hearing:
Zimmerman>>>>>Youkilis
... or people would have no idea who Youkilis is.

Yeah Keith Law is pretty far down the list of guys I care about hearing from when it comes to farm systems. I'll stick with BA/BP/Sickels.

drchstrpunk-thanks. i thought it'd be pretty ugly.

"I'd have to disagree, Tough. If I were to choose between Youkilis or Zimmerman to start a team, it would have to be Zimmerman. He's got gold glove defense at 3rd, not to mention he's considered as a franchise player. Zimmerman is 5 years younger than Youkilis.
Zimmerman's strikeout rate is .67 Ks a game, while Youkilis is .745.
Their career batting averages are similar: Zimmerman's is .282 while Youkilis' is .289.
SLG% is also closely similar: Zimmerman's at .462, Youkilis' at .472.

Zimmerman's still improving, and when he reaches his potential, he'll definitely be a much better player than Youkilis.

So you've greatly exaggerated Youkilis' value over Zimmermans."

That may all be true. But he never said anything about starting a team. He said Youk is better then Zimmerman. And right now, today, Youk is much, much better then Zimmerman.

why are the os giving up on salazar. hes never had a solid chance in the majors and in 81 abs last yr he posted .284/.372/.506. if i were the os id keep him on the team and give him another shot. platoon him with mora or keep him for some outfield play to give guys off days. I juat don't think this is the best choice for the os.

How the heck is the Nats farm system rated near bottom?? They were 9th last year!

And I agree with xjoe, Zim's still maturing, when he reaches his max potential at the plate, he'll be close, if not better.

"actually Fernando is ranked 16th but that's only because KLAW has always had a thing for him. Two years in AA speaks for itself. He also references that he may still stay at AA."

Even with a return trip to AA he would still be one of the younger players. How many Phillies were in AA at 18?

The Angels have suddenly turned cheap this off-season. Do they really think Moseley is a decent starter? Do they really think they don't need a DH who can hit?

yes i agree he's still young, but you have to be concerned with his injury history. And 18 in AA is impressive but that was 2 seasons ago and he's still there. If another season begins and he's still there and he doesn't progress what do you say then. He's a very good propsect but i disagree that he's better than Maybin or Stanton as i said earlier. Just one persons' opinion and again you know i'm biased.

I'm lovin Vitters that high...maybe Towers will read this...Hahaha.

Actually, if Youkilis were on the Nationals, he probably would have gotten a full time job much earlier in his career than he did, and could have been a better player sooner. Instead, he spent 2 seasons between part time at MLB and full time in AAA during which he would have been starting for a lot of teams.

The Zimmerman/Youk comparison is as of their careers before they hit arbitration for the first time. The point of the comparision is to project that Zimmerman may develop into a Youk-type hitter.

True for Youk getting a job back in 2004 and 2005 for certain with the Nat's. Sox kept bouncing him back to AAA with him being blocked by Billy Mueller and Kevin Millar and were not going to have someone with his talents on the bench, yet both Mueller and Millar were still producing. If Zimmerman had been with the Sox (ages reversed, he would have still been in AAA as well with the starters in front of him.

Zimmerman is a really nifty player and good 3B glove/bat combo, but toss out the ages and Youk is the better player, especially after this pas season and Zimmerman has time to grow granted, but has maybe not yet gotten as good as he will.

I can't stand Keith Law.

as far as I recall, he's said exactly 1 thing regarding the Nats that could have ever been possibly mistaken for maybe being kinda sorta complimentary since they came to DC.

leave it up to him to sensationalize anything even remotely negative about the Nationals.

we do NOT have a bottom-3 farm system. I don't care what Keith Law says.

a fair assessment of our farm system would put it pretty much middle-of-the-pack at this point due to regressions and injuries, but definitely not "worst-in-baseball".

Law most likely ranked the Nats farm system based solely on the fact that they didn't sign Aaron Crow.

philsWS.... yes, I am a bit concerned about Fernando Martinez's injury risk. But that is all the I am worried about. People tend to look at his stats (classic mistake when evaluating a prospect, especially one playing with much older competition), and say what the hell! He has no power! But power doesn't just come to you as a 20 year old, you have to mature physically to be able to hit for consistent power. Besides, MiLB leagues vary from "arena baseball" style, to pitchers paradises that are almost impossible to hit for power in. I expect nice things from Fernando.

To continue that though, I almost think that the fact that he has been sort of an after thought is a good thing. Forever, we have heard about how he is the next big prospect, or the teenage hitting machine, or whatever. The best thing is for this kid to just take his time, play baseball, and mature without hearing his own hype machine every week. Let him grow and when he is ready, he is ready. No need to rush him.

nrmax88,

I know he wasn't saying that. I was just making a point as to who is more valuable. I agree with what xjoe87x said: put him in that lineup and he can easily match Youkilis' numbers.

I'm not putting down Youk or anything. I think he's a really good baseball player. Heck, he's really underrated. I'm just pointing out that although Youkilis has been playing really well, most of his numbers could be a factor of that lineup.

And Tough, I know that Youk has gold glove defense as well. And I agree, it is a moot point when comparing the two together. I was just pointing out Zimmerman's assets.

BTW, I meant no disrespect at all to Youkilis, but my point was just that Zimmerman has a few years before he hits his prime and he doesn't have the same hitters ... Also Fenway is more of a hitters park and RFK stadium is a pitchers park

i think his power will be fine. Its his average and plate discipline that i'd be worried about if anything at all. And yes you need to factor in age but all i was saying is that i don't know that I'd rank him as high as the 16th best prospect when a Maybin and Stanton are in the mid 30's.

I mean Nationals stadium, not RFK

"we do NOT have a bottom-3 farm system. I don't care what Keith Law says.

a fair assessment of our farm system would put it pretty much middle-of-the-pack at this point due to regressions and injuries, but definitely not "worst-in-baseball".

Law most likely ranked the Nats farm system based solely on the fact that they didn't sign Aaron Crow."

Yeah, you probably do have a bottom 3 farm. You have 3 in the top 100. Two of them are power hitters who are for lack of a better word "raw." Detweiler took a step back last year which is important in ratings.

"Law most likely ranked the Nats farm system based solely on the fact that they didn't sign Aaron Crow."

That is a lame excuse for having a poor system, by that I mean not signing 1 1st round draft pick and besides that, drafting out of slot/supposedly non signable players and offering them high bonuses to sign, with the drafting system the way it is it is perfectly ;egal to do it and if a team has a GOOD scouting system in place they should be able to do this and a poor showing in a Minor league ranking generally shows that a team just has a poor scouting system. Crow wanted far too much granted, but putting to much emphasis on him and not over paying and drafting a few more HS players whom had committed to college already and trying to sign those in the rounds 10-30 was a mistake that most teams make also.

Where the fricking hell is Pedro Alvarez on this list?

Posted by: BadAndy | January 21, 2009 at 03:03 PM


38th.

Posted by: philsWSchamps | January 21, 2009 at 03:57 PM

Thanks

Got to wonder what Law is smoking.

The Giants 9th? I can't find more than one top 100 prospect in their farm system (Posey) and they are totally devoid of depth.

Mets 17th? Who exactly are the prospects there? One top line guy in Martinez and a bunch of nobodies.

Padres 19th? They have several top 100 BA prospects in Antonelli, Blanks and Kulbacki and others that are high ceiling players like pitchers Latos and Bush.

I guess we will just have to wait until Baseball America comes out with its rankings to see intelligent talk about prospects.

"The Giants 9th? I can't find more than one top 100 prospect in their farm system (Posey) and they are totally devoid of depth."

Madison Bumgarner, Tim Alderson, and Angel Villalona, to a lesser degree.

gotta agree with Bleedinblue,

I'm honestly surprised the Giants weren't higher than 9th. They've got some very good prospects, especially high end pitching.

And the Mets were that high based mostly on international prospects (Martinez, Flores) and an expectation that Holt will develop (not sure about him at all either positive or negative.


And as for the Nats he did specifically mention Detwiler as having stepped way back.

He also specified that farm systems that had guys closer to the majors got a better ranking, specifically citing the Red Sox as a team with some legit talent that is just too far down in the minors.

Not that I am being a Nats homer, but how are they bottom 3? Their high-A team won the league title last year, and the others didn't do so bad. I wouldn't begin to argue they have the best farm system, but hardly one of the three worst.

Law's info is back up now.

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