Rosenthal On Saito, Rangers, Hardy

As a Marniners fan, they have to trade Bedard. As good as he is, he is very fragile, and has been even before the brought him in. Even if they want to take a shot at the playoffs, there's no telling he will be available or healthy.

You have to give it to the Red Sox... shooting high on a Brad Penny trade. Unfortunately for them though everyone else sees Penny for what he is: a 31 year old pitcher, signed to a 1 year deal, coming off arm troubles, pitching to a 5.32 ERA. They won't get anything significant in return... especially with all the scouting awareness of today.

MorneauVP: you hit it right on the head only I would replace (yawn) and *CLICK* with uncontrollable laughter and Melvin yelling in the background "HEY YOU GUYS, Epstein is on the phone and he wants us to give him Hardy for Brad Penny"

Seriously though, that couldnt have been the deal, there must have been a prospect going along with Penny to make that even a half worthy deal. Epstein isnt an idiot.

Two bad months of Hardy's career make him washed up at the age of 26... tragic.

Hardy has a .228 BABIP, despite his LD% being almost identical to last season (15.5%) when his BABIP was .305. He's seeing just as many pitches per PA, and his GB% has actually gone down. Hardy will be fine.

Hardy's value is low, but it's not that low.

"Yes, because JJ Hardy's .207 batting average should command elite prospects.

He's as washed up as Penny."

Hardy is much more valuable than Penny. He is having a bad start that's all. Penny is going into his decline years with arm troubles. You cant be delusional enough to think a straight swap is fair.

The guy above said Penny + Bard... that would be more fair.

I don't see Bard as part of a deal, Hardy isn't gonna warrant any Top prospects anymore. Not only is his average and production down but also his time under team control. A small market .500, like Minnesota has a playoff shot this year but really is building for the future. They prob. would have given up top talent if it was 2 or more full years of Hardy. But even if you believe that its just a slump i think most teams are gonna be leery of giving up anything more than a B- prospect or two.

"The guy above said Penny + Bard... that would be more fair."

That is a fair deal, but not sure that either GM would pull the trigger. Bard is the closer heir for Boston in another couple of years in Boston and Hardy is one of the best SS in the game. It would be gutsy for either team to make the call.

"they have an even better one in AAA".

I'm not sure about that. Hardy has more power now than Escobar maybe ever will. Escobar is said to be outstanding defensively, but I'm not sure if hit bat is quite there yet...though he is hitting well currently at Nashville.

Invader3K -

Escobar is the best SS prospect in the minors and projects to be a Jose Reyes-type in the majors. He'll hit for average, a little pop, and steal 40+ bases. Needs to work on his BB rates to be an effective OBP leadoff guy, but he's a defensive wiz and should be a top 10 SS in the majors for a long time.

Love how everyone takes a team that they DON'T like and make it out like they are trying to steal from everyone. Get over yourselves. Every team that has a moveable piece tries to sell high. It's not just the Sox with Penny, it's everyone. Pull your heads out of the hole and recognize.

Blalock for Saito is a total rip off for Boston. Blalock walks after this year and is always hurt, Saito is an instant 8th inning/closer for most teams and you may want to check his stats.. The guy is back at full throttle and would be a closer right now on many teams. No way is Blalock even close to Saito.

I don't know if I'd say that Penny is "washed up" but he does have recurring control health issues, which tend to crop up late in the season. Here in LA we watched him lose command of his breaking pitches several times and start throwing almost nothing but fastballs, and become very hittable. It was nice to see Saito get (yet) another lease on his career in Boston, but I think everyone who knows his history knows that he's effectively always one pitch away from being done. For those reasons, limited trade value on both of them.

"Instead of a Penny for Hardy swap. It should be Bowden, Delcarmen, and Carter for Hardy and R.J. Swindle. Fair trade for both sides. Bowden can be a good #2 or #3 starter. Delcarmen a good set up guy for Hoff and eventually the closer. And Carter, with his hitting abilities, can be one of the best pinch hitters in the game. Mean while Swindle gives the Sox another LOOGY who can develop. And Hardy the shortstop they've always wanted."

I think that's giving up too much from the Sox' end to work.

Yeah, Hardy's probably going to come out of this slump, but it's not guaranteed. He's got a history of back problems and I'm not sure I'd want to downgrade our bullpen for him right now while giving up a third starter type, especially with only a year left before Hardy's a free agent.

Both Lugo and Green are inexplicably hitting better than Hardy is right now, so trading for Hardy when he's not hitting would be pointless unless you're getting him below market value. Green's a crappy shortstop overall, but it's not nearly as glaring with Youkilis back in the lineup. When Bailey was in there, it was god awful and possible call for desperate measures, but Green's problem is he's got a terrible arm. Having Youk back out there with his excellent picking and extension saves Green on a lot of plays and balances out the infield defense. If Green can keep hitting above his own ability until Lowrie gets back, the shortstop situation becomes moot for now. I'd rather stand pat on it until the season ends.

As much as I'd honestly like Hardy playing in Fenway, the time for a deal like that has passed. Hardy's plate struggles have continued and Lowrie's very close to returning. From a Sox perspective, there's no real point in trading him unless he can be gotten on the cheap. I'd just as soon wait until he hits free agency, when Lugo and Lowell are both off the books and Anderson ready, so we could use Lowrie as a Crisp-like super utility guy, giving time off to Youkilis, Hardy and Pedroia when necessary.

"You're probably right that Saito is more valuable right now. I would just like to see them get someone a little younger. "

I understand wanting to get a young/controllable setup/closer in the Ranger BP, but Blalock walks after this year and is always hurt, so why should Boston give the Rangers an 8th inning/closer who has been dominant in the 8th inning/closer role when Papelbon has been tired who has a club option for 2010? It is a poor deal for Boston, since they would be looking for someone that they could control also if they would be willing to dive up a dominant closer type reliever that if his injury history were to pop up later this year, well his option can be declined for next year anyway and a team that does need 8th inning/closer help like the Brewers, Texas would greatly benefit from him.

"Yeah, Hardy's probably going to come out of this slump, but it's not guaranteed."

The guy posted .786 and .821 OPS's in 2007 and 2008, and he's one of the better defensive shortstops in the game, something that few people seem to realize.

He has a career UZR/150 of +12.3 at shortstop, and this season he's up at +16.0 so far.

His .232 BABIP and 7.2% HR/FB are bound to increase substantially, as he's still hitting a similar amount of line drives and fly balls as last season.

Hardy is still one of the better shortstops in the game, and it would cost a haul to land him.

Bowden and Declarmen for Hardy seems like a pretty fair offer to me.

The guy posted WAR's of 4.5 and 4.9 in the past two seasons, so obviously he's pretty damn good.

"MDC for Hardy, possibly, but again I am not convinced Hardy is enough of an upgrade to Lowrie."

Did you ignore all those statistics that I brought up?

Hardy is a fantastic defensive shortstop and his offensive struggles this season are based a good deal around bad luck, because he's making similar contact to what he's done in the past.

If you don't consider Hardy one of the better young shortstops in the game, then to be fair, but I think that you're wrong.

Then again, I'm also pretty fond of Lowrie because I think that he can be similar to Hardy but with more contact and less power, so yeah, if I was Theo I wouldn't give up Bowden and MDC for Hardy. But that's about what Hardy is worth.

"Bowden and Declarmen for Hardy seems like a pretty fair offer to me."

I don't necessarily disagree. It's a fair move, but probably not a wise one from the Sox perspective. If they made a move for Hardy, it would be a "in the now" thing. That said, there's no point in getting a guy who's hitting terribly when your defensively mediocre shortstop has one of the best defenders in the league across the diamond from him picking his garbage throws with efficiency. It would solve their defense problem, but it would hurt their bullpen and offense.

I can see the benefit of a guy like Hardy for the sake of the future, but he's only signed through next season, which makes giving up anything of value for him when adding him would in effect make the team worse in two areas while only improving in one that's not as bad lately seem pretty pointless.

I like Hardy, I like him a whole lot, but it would be more prudent of the Sox to hold on to their arms and see if he hits free agency (Which he almost certainly will with a potentially better short stop behind him).

the o's top pitching prospect is chris tillman and he's not going anywhere..i say the o's should trade someone like guthrie for chris davis

"I don't know why the Sox would be looking to trade Saito."

Because he's a breakdown candidate?

Posted by: BlueSky | June 16, 2009 at 04:23 PM"

True, but I would love too see him back in LA. I hated when LA let him go.. Whats he gonna make this year? 1.5 million with incentives? SO cheap.

I feel that if the Brewers trade JJ Hardy for a different short stop that the Brewers may not be in the running for the title. Being a Brewers fanI think that the Brewers should stay with the team as is and JJ Hardy stay as a Milwaukee Brewers.