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Stark: What If The Nats Could Deal Strasburg?

ESPN.com's Jayson Stark determines how much Stephen Strasburg would be worth on the trade market if the Nats were allowed to deal him. Stark has an assortment of other rumors that will come soon in another post, but for now, some thoughts on Strasburg:

  • One NL exec wouldn't want to trade centerpiece players for Strasburg even if it was allowed, because pitchers aren't as reliable as position players.
  • Another executive said it would be hard to know how much to give for Strasburg when you don't know how much he's going to earn.
  • One official said he'd give up "three or four very good prospects" for Strasburg.  
  • A fourth exec said there's no way he'd give up an "everyday, impact, big-league player" like Adam Jones.
  • He reasons that Jones would have been the first overall pick in the draft this year if he'd somehow been eligible.  
  • Trading picks would enable the Nationals to avoid difficult negotiations with Scott Boras and allow them to get something immediately for giving up the rights to Strasburg.  


Comments

if the nats sign him, how long would they have to wait until they traded him. they may have to outlay the money now, but then have another team trade them prospects and cash (amount of signing bonus)

There is no reason to not be able to trade draft picks. This would make baseball and the draft so much more interesting and make it easier for low budget teams to be successful.

"if the nats sign him, how long would they have to wait until they traded him. they may have to outlay the money now, but then have another team trade them prospects and cash (amount of signing bonus)"

He can't be traded until a year after he's drafted. So think next year's trade deadline.

However, he could be traded late next offseason as a PTBNL.

"He can't be traded until a year after he's drafted. So think next year's trade deadline."

That's not correct... he can't be traded until a year after *he signs* - if he doesn't sign until mid-August this year, he'd have to be a PTBNL for a deadline trade next year. He's likely to be in Washington by that point. Assuming he's not on the DL, that would limit the Nationals' 2010 trade possibilities for Strasburg to teams in the AL.

"There is no reason to not be able to trade draft picks."

The reason is to diminish the negotiating power of the player. Both the team and the player basically are forced into a final situation of "sign here or the player doesn't play for an MLB associate next year." Considering the player has more to lose, this makes the team is in a better position. But I agree with you. If a team could trade draft picks and/or negotiating rights, it would make a different field.


As for trading Strasburg, consider this. Scouts have compared his stuff to Burnett. Now consider Burnett with 1) 6 years of cheap control, 2) younger than Burnett is now, 3) no MLB experience, 4) Projected to be better than Burnett... Now, what is Strasburg worth?

"He reasons that Jones would have been the first overall pick in the draft this year if he'd somehow been eligible."

As good as Jones has been that's just a silly statement. Strasburg still would've went first.

"As for trading Strasburg, consider this. Scouts have compared his stuff to Burnett. Now consider Burnett with 1) 6 years of cheap control, 2) younger than Burnett is now, 3) no MLB experience, 4) Projected to be better than Burnett... Now, what is Strasburg worth?"

Am I the only one who doesn't think Burnett is that great of a pitcher?

"Am I the only one who doesn't think Burnett is that great of a pitcher?"

You're far from the only one.

"He reasons that Jones would have been the first overall pick in the draft this year if he'd somehow been eligible."

This statement is just stupid all around. At this point AJ is an established major league contributor. Pretty much any established, productive big leaguer would be the top pick in the draft if they were available.

"You're far from the only one."

Ok, good. My friend insists that Burnett's 18 wins last year proves he's a good pitcher even though I had to point out the 4+ ERA. I dunno how much Toronto's defense factors into that though. Bottom line he thinks a pitcher getting a win proves "he kept his team in the game" where all it really means is they got great run support, which I'm assuming is the case for Burnett. If you give up 9 runs but you team scores 10 all that means if your offense had a great game and you're still a bad pitcher.

As for trading Strasburg, consider this. Scouts have compared his stuff to Burnett. Now consider Burnett with 1) 6 years of cheap control, 2) younger than Burnett is now, 3) no MLB experience, 4) Projected to be better than Burnett... Now, what is Strasburg worth?

Posted by: start_wearing_purple | June 11, 2009 at 02:54 PM

Are talking about the aj burnett who has a 5 era and 1.5 whip?

"Are talking about the aj burnett who has a 5 era and 1.5 whip?"

Eh, I was only using what scouts have said. Well let's put it this way: Imagine the 2002 Burnett.

the jay's defense is amazing. rolen is probably the best defensive third baseman, lyle overbay is one of the best, if not the best, defensive third baseman, john mcdonald/marco scutaro are awesome at shortstop, alex rios is one of the best outfielders and has a great arm, and wells is a 3-time gold glover. burnett was backed by amazing defense, and still couldn't get his ERA under 4 at all during the 2008 season. his ERA of like 5 right now doesn't surprise me, especially since his strikeouts are down.

*meant first baseman, for overbay

Anyone that thinks Strasburg would be taken ahead of Adam Jones needs to have their head examined. Strasburg still hasn't thrown a single pitch as a professional, he played against mediocre competition at best in college, and he's a young pitcher which makes him extremely risky. I can't imagine the O's would even entertain the thought of trading Jones for Strasburg.

Well yeah, If Adam Jones was somehow draft eligible right now, after establishing himself as a great young MLB player, obviously he would go first. But the Adam Jones that was drafted wouldn't have gone before Strasburg. It is pretty much a stupid conversation. Any young player that has already established himself as a star would obviously go first in the draft, but it is stupid and pointless to discuss.

Trading draft picks definitely makes sense to me. The Nats could have traded the number one pick for a ton of value and spread out the risk. They also need all the help they can get, so I like the idea. They wouldn't have to worry about what would happen if he doesn't sign, if they pay him 25 million and he is a bust, or whatever. They pretty much had no choice but to take Strasburg, and pay him what he wants. The only problem would be that cheap owners would trade their top picks and not get equal value back, just to save some money.

This entire post centers around the value Strasburg would bring in a trade. If a team would take Jones over Strasburg it means they value Jones more than Strasburg and would therefore be unlikely to trade a player of that sort for a player like Strasburg. So yeah, given the topic of the post, I don't see how you can argue that who would go higher in a fictional draft is irrelevant to the discussion.

To take it to the extreme - would Pujols or Strasburg have gone first? If you're talking about '09 Pujols vs. '09 Strasburg, duh. If you're talking about '99 Pujols vs. '09 Strasburg without foresight, you gotta go with Strasburg.

"So yeah, given the topic of the post, I don't see how you can argue that who would go higher in a fictional draft is irrelevant to the discussion."

But is clearly obvious. Any young player that is already producing in the big leagues would go higher in the draft then anybody who hasn't yet produced in the big leagues. It is as obvious as one plus one equals two. So I don't see the point. Yeah, if Adam Jones of 09 was in the draft (even though he is already a major league player), no shyt he would go first. What if David Wright, Evan Longoria, Dustin Pedroia and Grady Sizemore also were entered into the 2009 amateur draft. I'm pretty sure they would go before Strasburg also. So there is no point. The list of young major league baseball players that have already established themselves as star players would all go in front of any amateur in any draft.

"To take it to the extreme - would Pujols or Strasburg have gone first? If you're talking about '09 Pujols vs. '09 Strasburg, duh. If you're talking about '99 Pujols vs. '09 Strasburg without foresight, you gotta go with Strasburg."

Exactly. This isn't rocket science here.

You're generally a good poster man, but now your just arguing stupid points for arguments sake. There is clearly a difference between guys like David Wright, Evan Longoria, Dustin Pedroia, and Grady Sizemore and a guy like Jones. Jones has really only produced at a high level in the bigs for 2 months and we still don't actually know if he's THIS good. Still, because he has some track record of success at the ML level, he'd get taken before Strasburg. I'm sure that seems obvious to you, but you are far more educated about the game than the normal fan. After listening to Buster Olney go on and on about how Strasburg consistently throws 100-103 and KLaw basically saying he's the greatest thing since sliced bread, I think its understandable that the average fan out there has been deceived into believing that Strasburg is one of the 5 or so most valuable assets in the game when that simply isn't the case. We already had one person in here arguing how Strasburg would still have definitely gone #1, so maybe this isn't as obvious to everyone else out there as it is to you and me.

BTW I love how you get on other people for "stating the obvious" and then agree with a guy who said '99 Pujols would go after '09 Strasburg...you know, because it isn't obvious that a consensus #1 pick would go before a guy who lasted to the 13th round in his draft

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