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« White Sox DFA Jimmy Gobble | Main | Heyman On Halladay, Davis, Holliday »
Phils Are Early Favorites For Halladay
One source told Ed Price of MLB Fanhouse that "the Phillies are leaders at this point" in the Roy Halladay sweepstakes. However, that doesn't mean the Jays ace will be dealt. As another source points out, J.P. Ricciardi is not in a hurry to trade Halladay, so there's an equal chance he stays in Toronto.
And the haul Halladay could bring? The Erik Bedard trade (Adam Jones, George Sherrill and others) and the Dan Haren trade (Carlos Gonzalez, Brett Anderson and others) could be benchmarks.
Jon Heyman of SI.com heard from an executive who believes the Jays would hesitate to deal Halladay within their own division. Does that make the Phillies favorites?
The executives who spoke with Joel Sherman of the New York Post believe the Phillies are the frontrunners for Halladay. The Phillies want to win now and they think Halladay's ground ball-based approach would thrive in their homer-friendly park.
Sherman also heard the Rangers and Cardinals could make strong plays for Halladay. The Rangers are borrowing money from MLB, but some believe they could spend enough to make a push for the Blue Jays' ace, who has about $23MM remaining on his current deal. Texas has many appealing pieces to offer. However, we heard last week that they have "limited" ability to add payroll.
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Are yall so desperate for money your running adverts for cults?
Posted by: Rubin | July 08, 2009 at 11:30 AM
"http://eatsleepmlb.mlblogs.com"
Advertising is not allowed on here, unless you pay for it.
Posted by: BravesRed | July 08, 2009 at 11:33 AM
Please don't do it Philly. They would be light years better than anyone in the NL east.
Posted by: garriscp | July 08, 2009 at 11:40 AM
"Are yall so desperate for money your running adverts for cults?"
I assume Tim subscribes to an ad service (ala Google Ads), and they automatically run the ads. So the MLBtr staff has little control over which ads air.
Posted by: melonis rex | July 08, 2009 at 11:42 AM
What about the Angels? Would a package of Brandon Wood, Trevor Reckling, and Jordan Walden be enough to get the deal done?
Posted by: Halofan | July 08, 2009 at 11:42 AM
What package would the Cards offer? You got to imagine it starts with Wallace. Maybe Wallace, Anderson, Motte, and a few others? Someone currently on the MLB roster, maybe? Personally, I say pull the trigger on any deal they offer that does not include Colby Rasmus. Doc is the best pitcher in baseball with a healthy track record. Win while Albert is in his prime.
Posted by: Zoop | July 08, 2009 at 11:48 AM
Halofan, I think you add in Peter Bourjos and you got yourself a deal.
Posted by: lexmarklover | July 08, 2009 at 11:52 AM
"The Erik Bedard trade (Adam Jones, George Sherrill and others)"
One of the "others" was the Mariners top pitching prospect, TIllman. That shouldn't be unmentioned. "Others" makes it sound like the rest were throw-ins.
Posted by: basemonkey | July 08, 2009 at 11:53 AM
The thought of Halladay in the NL is kind of crazy! I'm really curious to see what his numbers would look like there.
Posted by: kswissreject | July 08, 2009 at 11:54 AM
What number is he going to wear for the Phils? I want to get my Halladay jersey. We retired 32 for Lefty.
Love how all the "critics" are saying the Phils don't have enough talent to acquire him. We could match anybody's package talent wise. Plus the Phils are printing money right now with the Ring, so his salary isn't an issue.
Package Drabeck, Brown, Donald and a 10-15 prospect for him.
Posted by: ARW | July 08, 2009 at 11:56 AM
ARW has it right, that is an acceptable package.
Posted by: The_Bunk | July 08, 2009 at 12:02 PM
What about the Angels? Would a package of Brandon Wood, Trevor Reckling, and Jordan Walden be enough to get the deal done?
OH my gosh yes, they could get a 3B who actually has been up and down for performance in the majors for the last two years. They could get a 20 year old kid, and possibly a starting pitcher whom is 1-5 with a 5ERA in A ball. Seriously if you add say Elmer Dessens and maybe bring nack Oil Can Boyd, I think they would not hesitate.
Posted by: theJonathan | July 08, 2009 at 12:04 PM
agreed, the ARW package is fair
Posted by: 04Forever | July 08, 2009 at 12:05 PM
"ARW has it right, that is an acceptable package."
I think it would take more.
Posted by: BravesRed | July 08, 2009 at 12:05 PM
Zoop, for the Cards, i think it would have to be Wallace, Jess Todd, Bryan Anderson, and probably Jason Motte
Posted by: lexmarklover | July 08, 2009 at 12:08 PM
Haha you might be right actually. it's just nice to see realistic packages with two A prospects. The last two threads have been filled with ridiculous dodgers and cubs packages containing a slew of B-B+ prospects.
Posted by: The_Bunk | July 08, 2009 at 12:08 PM
Strangely the Phillies have an eerily similar approach to their farm as the Mets, gambling on high yield toolsy guys and little on sound sure bets. They have more than the Mets do certainly. They have a lot of B prospects with strong tools but mixed bag of issues. I think any offer starts with Carrasco. Throw in a B-prospect pitcher and hitter, then a throw-in or two. Halladay is a once a generation pitcher. I think he's every bit Johan's equal.
If Halladay went from the AL East to the NL East, he'll post ungodly numbers. Halladay will go from having facing #5 type bats at the 8 slot and/or lineups that average 5+ runs per game to having a 1-2-3 every 3 or so innings. Even the Orioles, a 5th place team, features a stronger offense than the better NL East clubs.
Posted by: basemonkey | July 08, 2009 at 12:08 PM
Maybe the "other" prospect is Drew Carpenter. Falls into that 10-15 range, IMO. Has had flashes of brillance in his minor league career with some downtimes. Has been lights out at Lehigh Valley since his return to AAA.
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/C/Andrew-Carpenter.shtml
Posted by: ARW | July 08, 2009 at 12:09 PM
If we could somehow pry Brown, Drabek, and Carrasco, it would soften the blow of seeing Halladay go.
Posted by: The_Bunk | July 08, 2009 at 12:09 PM
I'd rather be the late favorites, but this isn't bad news
Posted by: wayne gomes | July 08, 2009 at 12:09 PM
I'm hoping like crazy the deal includes Happ instead of Drabek (TOR had a scout at last night's game to watch Happ throw)...Happ is doing quite well (5-0 3.04), but Drabek is looking like a future ace.
I know TOR is going to want top talent, but I'm REALLY hoping the Phils find a way to swing it without giving up Drabek...
Posted by: Muggi | July 08, 2009 at 12:09 PM
I don't think anyone has said the phils don't have the goods to get Halladay. If anything as a Jays fan I would say they are the best fit depending on the Rangers.
Posted by: Devmac | July 08, 2009 at 12:10 PM
Todd may be the other player in the DeRosa deal, though, which likely rules him out.
Posted by: Zoop | July 08, 2009 at 12:10 PM
"What about the Angels? Would a package of Brandon Wood, Trevor Reckling, and Jordan Walden be enough to get the deal done?"
No.
"Package Drabeck, Brown, Donald and a 10-15 prospect for him."
Awful deal for the Jays.
Because the Haren deal makes a great benchmark, let's line the two deals up.
Drabek and Brown = Gonzalez (at the time of trade) and Anderson
Cunningham + Carter + 2 C guys >>>>>>>>> Donald + 10-15 prospect.
Both Cunningham and Carter are ranked higher than Donald.
Posted by: melonis rex | July 08, 2009 at 12:11 PM
As a Braves fan, while at first I would cringe if the Phils get Halladay, I think after 2 or 3 years it would hurt the Phillies pretty bad. I do believe he will stay in Toronto though.
Posted by: james | July 08, 2009 at 12:11 PM
On second thought, the perfect package would maybe be Brown, Drabek, Marson and Donald. Chances are the Phillies wouldn't deal Carrasco if they are going to deal Drabek, and we not only get two A prospects back in the deal, but we would also get help at catcher and third base/shortstop which are positional needs on the farm for the jays.
Posted by: The_Bunk | July 08, 2009 at 12:12 PM
Hell I would go as far as Happ, Drabek, Taylor, Donald. Those guys are all fairly near ML ready (Happ is ready now), and they also get high ceiling guys in Mike and Kyle
From Phils perspective, hurts to give up all those guys (except Donald who is blocked), but they still retain high upside arms in Carrasco and Knapp, and a top OF in Brown that can step in for 2011
Posted by: wayne gomes | July 08, 2009 at 12:13 PM
Melonis Rex, what do you think the deal should be?
Posted by: The_Bunk | July 08, 2009 at 12:14 PM
Also a note I could see Halladay not wanting to go to Texas. Mostly because even with him they still have a long hard road to the world series. Is Texas with Halladay better then Boston/New York? I'm not sure anyone can say that.
Adding Halladay to the Phils tho is a massive boost to a team that just won the world series and its in a much weaker division. In the same aspect I'm not sure how Doc feels about batting but I guess he'll deal.
All I can say is whoever gets him and I'm at the point now where I don't believe he will be in Toronto past 2010 you will love watching him. The guy is everything you want a pro to be.
Posted by: Devmac | July 08, 2009 at 12:15 PM
If Halladay goes to Philly, the Phils will have to empty out significant depth in an average system but they will receive a bonafide Ace, who may get even better in a weak division (Every AL EAST team is in the Top 10 of MLB offenses). All of a sudden the Phils might have the strongest 1-2 punch in the NL with Halladay-Hamels.
Posted by: basemonkey | July 08, 2009 at 12:17 PM
I really think Drabek is a must in any deal. After that, I think one of Happ, Carrasco and Bastardo will be involved. One of Brown/Taylor, and then maybe Donald and another throw in. This is going to cost a ton guys. It would be worth it thugh I think. Halladay and Hamels back to back come playoff time is out of this world.
Posted by: nrmax88 | July 08, 2009 at 12:17 PM
If I'm the Jays I want Taylor as part of the deal. Because if I'm trading Halladay I'm trading more people as well.
Deal Overbay and move Travis Snider to first base. Then your looking at Taylor, Wells and Rios for the OF with Snider at first Lind at DH Hill at 2nd and that is potentially the start of a solid offense. If Taylor and Snider work out of coarse which I believe they will.
Posted by: Devmac | July 08, 2009 at 12:18 PM
Yes, on second thought, I think Halladay-Hamels trumps pretty much any other duo in MLB. Or at least at the top of the debate.
Posted by: basemonkey | July 08, 2009 at 12:19 PM
The thing is I could see the Phils being able to pay a gigantic freight as well. Obviously the need is there and the money is there, but the system has recovered the past two years to the point where it would not be completely bankrupting it to give up say, 4 of 6 top overall prospects
They have two excellent OF prospects (as well as Mayberry who is an interested platoon guy) and only one big league OF spot open until 2011. They have 4 good looking SP prospects (Drabek, Carrasco, Knapp, Happ), so giving up a couple would not completely leave the cupboard bare
Posted by: wayne gomes | July 08, 2009 at 12:21 PM
"Hell I would go as far as Happ, Drabek, Taylor, Donald. Those guys are all fairly near ML ready (Happ is ready now), and they also get high ceiling guys in Mike and Kyle
From Phils perspective, hurts to give up all those guys (except Donald who is blocked), but they still retain high upside arms in Carrasco and Knapp, and a top OF in Brown that can step in for 2011"
I agree that is the type of package its going to take to get Doc. Maybe throw in Marson if the Jays aren't convinced enough
Posted by: s17 | July 08, 2009 at 12:22 PM
Blue Jays GM needs to ask himself, if CC went for a fronline hitter, a ML pitcher and two OF hitters, would Halladay whom is better especially being a GB pitcher in phillies stadium, get more since he has 1.5 years of service time left.
I dont think Drabek only, is worth another full year of service time.
I would go Drabek, Taylor, Happ, Collier and Donald.
Drabek
Taylor
Happ
Collier
Donald
for
Halladay and possibly another 50 million dollar bonus for winning one of 2009 or 2010 world series championships...
IN A HEARTBEAT
Posted by: theJonathan | July 08, 2009 at 12:23 PM
^^ Now I think Marson is crossing a line. He has been overrated by some Phils fans IMO but is still a solid looking, potentially starting C in the Jason Kendall mold
If they want more than that, I would think the Phils could tap into one of the high ceiling/raw guys from the 08 draft, like Trevor May or Julio Rogriguez or Zach Collier. Not Marson
Posted by: wayne gomes | July 08, 2009 at 12:24 PM
@Devmac: Agreed about not being sure Halladay wants to bat, but Heyman reported a "Halladay friend" saying BOS, NYY and PHI are places he'd waive the no-trade for.
That's pretty limited considering TOR can't want to deal him in the ALE.
Posted by: Muggi | July 08, 2009 at 12:26 PM
I think Toronto could deal him to the AL east, there was also a story that said JP as a Billy Beane guy is not scared to deal players within the division. However I'm not sold that Boston and New York are serious contenders anyway. More likely just to be used to drive up the price.
Posted by: Devmac | July 08, 2009 at 12:31 PM
I think a Halladay trade would pretty much would do the same thing the Santana trade had done to the Mets this year. At the time of that trade the Mets had less than what the Phils do today, but they pretty much sold off all B prospects in the system and kept Fernando. Everything left were fringe players and borderline MLB role players. Today the Mets are suffering. In spite of a rash of critical injuries you don't hear any talk of them in rumors, primarily because they don't have any pieces to deal whatsoever. They transacted themselves into irrelevance.
What would it mean for the Phils? Well, right now the Phillies system pretty much goes 6-7 deep. To pull off a Halladay trade, they pretty much have to deal 4-5 players, which would place them pretty much in the same territory as the Mets find themselves in today if worse comes to worst.
Posted by: basemonkey | July 08, 2009 at 12:33 PM
Let's see...if the Jays keep Halladay and he walks after next year, they get two top picks for him, so they will insist on two top prospects to begin with to offset those picks. That, to me, means any deal with the Phillies has to START with Drabek AND Brown. The Jays need a young, ML-ready shortstop to step in for Marco Scutaro, so Jason Donald would likely have to be included. They would also need to replace Doc in the rotation for the rest of the year, so they need a ML-ready pitcher. I know they have a ton of young pitching, but most of it is in the rotation or on the DL already. So Happ probably has to be included as well, and would explain why they were scouting him last night.
So there you have Drabek, Brown, Donald and Happ. That will get Ricciardi's attention, but you probably need a little more to get it done. That is an awful lot of the Phillies' minor league inventory, but then again, they are built to win now (everyone of significance is signed or under team control through 2011), so they have 2-3 years to try to replenish the system.
Personally, I don't think he gets traded, but as a Phils fan, I would love to see it. Going to take a TON, though.
Posted by: Acerulli | July 08, 2009 at 12:34 PM
Why is Brown so much higher on everyones radars than Taylor? Someone explain
Posted by: s17 | July 08, 2009 at 12:38 PM
carcasco donald marson taylor or brown and carpenter? thoughts?
Posted by: derman1984 | July 08, 2009 at 12:40 PM
s17, Brown is younger, a bit more athletic, with an outside chance to play CF. Better defender, better arm (although both are plus), and arguably more power potential. Better walk rate. All that being said, if someone said they think Taylor is a better prospect of the two I can't blame them after Mike's year at AA. I think both are top 40 overall BA guys at this point at worst
Posted by: wayne gomes | July 08, 2009 at 12:41 PM
s17, Brown is younger, a bit more athletic, with an outside chance to play CF. Better defender, better arm (although both are plus), and arguably more power potential. Better walk rate. All that being said, if someone said they think Taylor is a better prospect of the two I can't blame them after Mike's year at AA. I think both are top 40 overall BA guys at this point at worst
Posted by: wayne gomes | July 08, 2009 at 12:41 PM
To Derman: If there is one thing most blue jays and phillies in this thread agree on, it's that this deal doesn't get done without Drabek.
Posted by: The_Bunk | July 08, 2009 at 12:42 PM
s17 - I just know that from what I read in the Philly media, the Phillies organization seems to value Brown more than Taylor. If Taylor is considered the better prospect, then he will have to be included. You know the Jays will insist on their best pitching prospect, best bat, a short stop, another decent level pitcher, and possibly one other lesser piece. That is most of the Phillies farm system. They have the goods to get it done, but not much else.
Posted by: Acerulli | July 08, 2009 at 12:43 PM
I dunno I would assume Drabek but if its Carrasco instead I wouldn't be shocked or upset honestly. it could mean the difference between a better second piece or 3rd piece.
Posted by: Devmac | July 08, 2009 at 12:45 PM
Ok so being that Taylor is more mature and closer to the MLB, wouldn't the Jays want him instead of Brown?
Posted by: s17 | July 08, 2009 at 12:46 PM
Of course Halladay is available. We've known that since the beginning of the season.
However, people seem to completely miss the fact that the Jays will only deal Halladay unless they get a future ace (Kershaw-talent). Not prospects that could turn into something.
Posted by: B3NG4L | July 08, 2009 at 12:51 PM
"Zoop, for the Cards, i think it would have to be Wallace, Jess Todd, Bryan Anderson, and probably Jason Motte"
Jess was said to be in the list of players possibly going to Cleveland as the PTBNL. Motte is also possibly on that list. The Cards might have their hands tied with some of their trading chips until the Indians choose their reward (on or before September 1st we heard)
"Haha you might be right actually. it's just nice to see realistic packages with two A prospects. The last two threads have been filled with ridiculous dodgers and cubs packages containing a slew of B-B+ prospects."
Two things. First, sorry on behalf of Cubs fans. Second, it is nice that Dodger fans have pretty much supplanted us as the fan base trying to force the most illogical offers down everyones throats for whatever player is rumored to be available on any given day :)
Posted by: SuzysMan | July 08, 2009 at 12:51 PM
s17, what do you think of this?
1. Drabek
2. Brown or Taylor (whichever the Jays want more)
3. Donald
4. Happ
5. one lesser piece, possibly Marson or Savery
Posted by: Acerulli | July 08, 2009 at 12:52 PM
That is a pretty solid offer, I think the Jays would have to take that.
Posted by: Devmac | July 08, 2009 at 12:53 PM
s 17 I guess that depends on their risk tolerance, with a little patience Brown probably has the better upside
As far as Carrasco...I do not think this year has killed his value. I think the gap between Drabek and Carrasco as the Phils top pitching prospect isn't as wide as some fans claim. Check out his peripherals, K/9, K:BB, GB rate, BABIP, LOB% in AAA. Plus he is barely 22 so very young for the level. Also better frame than Drabek and less serious injury history
Of course he was terrible yesterday, but I am still quite high on Carrasco
Posted by: wayne gomes | July 08, 2009 at 12:54 PM
I think alot of you guys are on drugs in regards to how much you think the Phillies need to give up.
Carassco, Donald, Marson, Savery. Four guys that can contribute next year at the latest.
How many times does history have to repeat itself. How many outrageous bounties have people claimed GMs would get for Holliday, Haren, Santana, ect. It just won't happen.
Carassco, Savery, Donald, Marson, Mayberry Jr, Carpenter, Bastardo, Happ - a combination of those guys is going to get it done.
And anyone who thinks the Jays would get ripped off if the deal included two of Brown, Taylor and Drabek doesn't know what they're talking about. Only one of those three the Phils will part with is Taylor anyway.
Posted by: HollywoodHamels | July 08, 2009 at 12:55 PM
I laughed when I read the Bedard deal is a benchmark. I guess so. Other than the fact Halladay is a far and away better risk for the team that gets him. The Jays will get an absolute haul if they deal Halladay.
Posted by: studio179 | July 08, 2009 at 12:59 PM
carcasco donald marson taylor or brown and carpenter? thoughts?
***
This is so much closer to what is actually going to happen than the other nonsense being touted here. I think you could do that deal with Taylor and without Carpenter. I also think they can do the deal without giving up Taylor, but we'll have to see.
Posted by: HollywoodHamels | July 08, 2009 at 12:59 PM
The Bunk, you watch the Wire?
Posted by: bucs_lose_again | July 08, 2009 at 01:05 PM
Cubs have no need anyway to get involed in the soon to occur in the "let's see who will overpay the most for Halladay" sweepstakes between probably Philly, NYY and another team that will likely emerge. The Cubs will get another crack at Peavy after the season at a far less cost and not have to worry about getting him signed to a LT extension either.
Just hope that Boston stays away from this Halladay nonsense, no need really for him ST or LT and the cost will be far too high for a team with Masterson and Bucholz that would be starting on many teams already, just get Beckett signed LT and forget about Halladay, or stay in long enough to force any Yankee interest to well over what they are able to pay prospect wise and let Philly overpay for him.
Posted by: johns | July 08, 2009 at 01:05 PM
The Jays are looking for guys who are near mlb ready who project as superstars. They are not looking for pitching depth, or organizational depth where you can just list a bunch of "B" prospects. All the proposals would start with Drabek although I don't think he is good enough. He only has 46 innings above A ball with only 36 K's, and he is coming off TJ surgery. If the Jays give up Halladay they need more of a sure thing
Posted by: bob_loblaw | July 08, 2009 at 01:07 PM
Johns I hope your right and Boston does help raise the price without actually wanting to get him.
Posted by: Devmac | July 08, 2009 at 01:07 PM
I would hope that Chase and Roy can get together during the ASG and have a nice conversation about what its like to play in Philly.
The other issue that people aren't talking about is that if it ever did happen we'd need to resign him after 2010 and Cole's contract is up after 2011. To that end I think we need to keep Taylor out of any deal if at all possible so that he can step in and provide close to the power production of Howard when we say bye bye to him after his 3 year deal is up.
Posted by: philsWSchamps | July 08, 2009 at 01:13 PM
So johns, you want the Red Sox to get involved so an NL team will trade more talent into your division?
As many people have mentioned, I think Drabek, Brown/Taylor, Donald, Bastardo/Carpenter and a lesser prospect get it done.
Posted by: NYC PhilsFan | July 08, 2009 at 01:14 PM
HollywoodHamels: That deal will not get done, stop kidding yourself.
Posted by: The_Bunk | July 08, 2009 at 01:14 PM
"How many times does history have to repeat itself. How many outrageous bounties have people claimed GMs would get for Holliday, Haren, Santana, ect. It just won't happen."
The Haren haul was huge. There is no reason to doubt that Halladay will net the same thing Haren net the A's, which is a massive haul. Gonzalez's stock was huge when he was traded. Anderson was a top 25 prospect coming into this season. Cunningham and Carter are top #50-75 prospects in all of MLB. And then two BOR throw ins.
Santana had a NTC and would veto any trade unless the team who he was traded to would fork over a massive extension. So only 3 teams could trade for him and afford to sign him, even if they had the prospects.
Comparing Halladay to Santana is like comparing apples and oranges.
Posted by: melonis rex | July 08, 2009 at 01:15 PM
bucs lose again: Big fan yes, on to watching the early homicide seasons, pretty impressed so far.
Posted by: The_Bunk | July 08, 2009 at 01:16 PM
"Melonis Rex, what do you think the deal should be?"
Drabek, one of Taylor or Brown, and Carrasco all have to be in any Halladay deal. Then I want one of Marson, Donald, Savery, or Happ, and then a lower level prospect.
Posted by: melonis rex | July 08, 2009 at 01:21 PM
lower level prospect pretty much meaning throw in.
The Wire wins, btw.
Posted by: melonis rex | July 08, 2009 at 01:22 PM
"
s17, what do you think of this?
1. Drabek
2. Brown or Taylor (whichever the Jays want more)
3. Donald
4. Happ
5. one lesser piece, possibly Marson or Savery"
LOL, might as well just send the whole farm system. why would the phillies trade happ, who is a part of their rotation now and pitching well, for a better starting pitcher, yes, but that just opens a hole and fills it again, but at the same time trading away half the farm? that is way too much, and theres no way the phillies trade brown and drabek in the same deal. if toronto demands that i doubt the deal happens.
Posted by: mooNy | July 08, 2009 at 01:22 PM
As far as I can tell the deal will have to look sort of like this.
Carrasco or Drabek
Taylor or Brown
Donald
Marson,Savery or Happ
not sure if it would take 2 of those last 3 I hope it does but I wouldn't be upset if it didn't cause that is a good haul.
Posted by: Devmac | July 08, 2009 at 01:24 PM
First, Drabek does fit the mold...
He may be a tad overhyped... But, a 96 MPH FB, 86 change, and a 79 MPH hook that is filthy... He has nasty stuff...
However, to even suggest that Drabek would come to Philly without him in the package is crazy... Donald would be a given... More than likely, you are adding a young major league talent into the mix as well and two more minor leaguers...
The deal might be something along the lines of...
Happ
Drabek
Marson
Donald
Taylor
Everyone in baseball knows Ruben has been ravaging for pitching all season... JP won't hesitate to stick it too him...
Posted by: allabouthephils | July 08, 2009 at 01:28 PM
"The Haren haul was huge. There is no reason to doubt that Halladay will net the same thing Haren net the A's, which is a massive haul. Gonzalez's stock was huge when he was traded. Anderson was a top 25 prospect coming into this season. Cunningham and Carter are top #50-75 prospects in all of MLB. And then two BOR throw ins. "
Haren also made about 1/7th of what Halladay makes and had a longer window of time under team control. Both huge factors that will work against that same kind of deal for Halladay.
"Santana had a NTC and would veto any trade unless the team who he was traded to would fork over a massive extension. So only 3 teams could trade for him and afford to sign him, even if they had the prospects. "
And they went from asking for Phil Hughes from the Yanks to getting a really second rate package from the Mets. Everyone knew what the conditions were at the time and people still claimed the Twins would get a great haul. Didn't really happen.
"Comparing Halladay to Santana is like comparing apples and oranges. "
How exactly?
No mention of Holliday? Nothing to counter that with I guess. The Sabathia trade is best case scenerio for the Jays. Getting a premium prospect and some extra. Halladay does have that extra year on the contract, but the economy is working against them. Very few teams can take on a 15MM+ player this and next year. Even fewer teams can do it and give up the prospects they Jays want. And even still less than that play outside of the AL East.
By the time July 25th or so rolls around, the Jays will know for sure they only have one serious bidder, and they're either going to back away from an outrageous demand or hold onto Halladay.
Posted by: HollywoodHamels | July 08, 2009 at 01:31 PM
The Jays need to realize that if they don't do something this year and keep him until the offseason the price goes down. Pretty much everyone knows they won't resign him after next year unless they could somehow unload Wells and or Rios.
This year they could get Drabek, Brown, Carrasco, Marson and Donald say from the Phils but next year it'll drop to Drabek, Marson and Donald.
Same goes for every other teams offers.
To me it would work out best for the Jays to hold him until the 31st and then get the best they can for him.
Also those that point to the two draft picks they can get need to remember that no draft picks are guaranteed to be good just like no prospects are guaranteed to be good but the closer they are the more chance you have that they'll be good.
Posted by: philsWSchamps | July 08, 2009 at 01:48 PM
""Comparing Halladay to Santana is like comparing apples and oranges. "
How exactly?"
Santana was a situation where basically 3 teams were bidding for one player, while two of them didnt know if they even wanted him. And the Twins could have had a bigger package had they pulled the trigger earlier - they waited too long. At the end of it, it was kind of the Mets or nobody as far as options.
The Santana deal should never be a benchmark for judging any possible trade, it was just too much of a strange situation that will never be seen again.
Posted by: SuzysMan | July 08, 2009 at 01:48 PM
"
s17, what do you think of this?
1. Drabek
2. Brown or Taylor (whichever the Jays want more)
3. Donald
4. Happ
5. one lesser piece, possibly Marson or Savery"
If I'm the Jays, I love that package. Two quality SP arms, a SS to replace Scutaro, a bright OF, and Marson to compliment Arencibia. Jays could have a catching surplus much like the Rangers with Salty/Teagarden
Posted by: s17 | July 08, 2009 at 01:49 PM
of course you love that package because thats a complete ripoff lol. the phillies would never do that.
Posted by: mooNy | July 08, 2009 at 02:15 PM
"No mention of Holliday? Nothing to counter that with I guess."
The pitching market and the position player market were functioning completely different last offseason. The bottom dropped out of the position market, but pitcher prices remained steady.
"The Sabathia trade is best case scenerio for the Jays. Getting a premium prospect and some extra. Halladay does have that extra year on the contract, but the economy is working against them. Very few teams can take on a 15MM+ player this and next year. Even fewer teams can do it and give up the prospects they Jays want. And even still less than that play outside of the AL East."
If there's one thing you saw last offseason in free agency, its that the contracts elite talents got didn't drop one bit and that the starting pitching market didn't even drop at all.
CC, AJ, and Lowe, the elite arms, got the big bucks.
Oliver Perez, Ryan Dempster, Kyle Lohse, Jon Garland, these guys were massively overpaid. Not as bad as the Silva deal, but the advancement of peripheral stats definitely played a major part in that as well. You can also attribute this to clubs statistically advancing though, and looking at more than just W-L record and ERA. Peripherals show that all four of these guys are either mediocre or bad pitchers.
Now, Roy Halladay is better than any of those guys. The economy should play very little effect on Halladay bidding, with the exception being the teams that have ownership issues (Rangers, Cubs).
And, Halladay is easily a better pitcher than Haren. Haren's improved quite a bit since being traded, btw.
Halladay 2008-2009 > Haren 2007.
Posted by: melonis rex | July 08, 2009 at 02:18 PM
"1. Drabek
2. Brown or Taylor (whichever the Jays want more)
3. Donald
4. Happ
5. one lesser piece, possibly Marson or Savery"
Close, but I don't see the Phils moving Drabek, who is their only front-of-the-rotation pitching prospect (all the others are #3-#4 guys or, in Knapp's case, future closer). Drop Drabek out of the deal and that's probably about where the Phils will max out, except that they might give up Marson and Savery rather than either/or.
That would leave the deal at Halladay for either Brown or Taylor, Happ, Donald, and Marson and/or Savery. That's going to be a tough package to beat, especially if the Jays (understandably) want to get Halladay out of their division and preferably out of the AL entirely.
Posted by: ColonelTom | July 08, 2009 at 02:41 PM
Why would the Phillies do the below deal for Halliday ???
Happ
Drabek
Marson
Donald
Taylor
When for Happ / Drabek / Taylor and a high ceiling High A ball infielder who is not in the top 20 prospects of the phillies for Cliff Lee
who makes alot less than Halladay and is also signed through next season and Manual has managed when he first came up with the Indians.In Lee's las 51 starts 49 times he went past the 6th inning Halladay isn't even close to that number because he can't stay healthy.
Posted by: baseballnuts | July 08, 2009 at 03:22 PM
ColonelTom, guarunteed you will not get Halladay without giving up Carrasco or Drabek.
Posted by: s17 | July 08, 2009 at 03:23 PM
Trading Happ as part of the deal would be robbing Peter to Pay Paul. It would improve one end of the Phillies' rotation, and break the end of it.
I'd say:
Dominic Brown (Their 'actual' top prospect)
Kyle Drabek or Michael Taylor (one of their two other top prospects)
Jason Donald or Lou Marson
Kyle Kendrick (Useful MLB ready Pitcher to fill the gap)
That's 2 of their top 3 Top Prospects, a desireable 'Mid Tier' prospect, and a MLB ready Pitcher. If The Phils have to sweeten that pot, then you add one of Carrasco / Bastardo / John Mayberry, but that should be more than enough to swing the deal.
Posted by: ItsJustJake | July 08, 2009 at 03:29 PM
"By the time July 25th or so rolls around, the Jays will know for sure they only have one serious bidder, and they're either going to back away from an outrageous demand or hold onto Halladay. "
Yeah, right, because when the Phillies only offer Carrasco, Savery, Donald and Marson you think they will be the only serious bidder? The Mets can and will beat that offer if only to keep him off of Phillies. They can offer Holt, Thole, Tejada, and some guy like Antonini and at least equal that Phillies offer. If that is all you think the Phils are willing to give up they are not getting Halladay.
Posted by: nrmax88 | July 08, 2009 at 04:16 PM
"Trading Happ as part of the deal would be robbing Peter to Pay Paul. It would improve one end of the Phillies' rotation, and break the end of it."
Happ's been great so far, but he's never been projected as more than a back-of-the-rotation guy. I'd be very hesitant to deal him, but I doubt this deal happens without Happ.
"ColonelTom, guarunteed you will not get Halladay without giving up Carrasco or Drabek."
The Phils would give up Carrasco in a heartbeat if Halladay's coming back. My guess is that Drabek and Brown are the two "untouchables," and it'll be a question of whether the Phils have enough patience to wait out the Jays and get the deal done without having to trade those two guys.
If I were a betting man, I'd say the Phils end up giving up one of Brown/Drabek in the deal, but not both.
Posted by: ColonelTom | July 08, 2009 at 04:18 PM
@ Jake
Jays will want Donald over Marson. They want a SS prospect, plus they have some kid who can rake at C in their system (hit 27 HR last year).
I think you'd also have to throw in a guy like Drew Carpenter to the mix.
I totally agree with NOT dealing Happ. I say he's the one immoveable piece among the discussed players. You'd still have a gap with removing him (plus he's arguably been the best pitcher the last six weeks or so for the Phils).
Posted by: ARW | July 08, 2009 at 04:21 PM
Drayton McLane would never give the ok on this trade, but:
Hunter Pence, Jason Castro, Bud Norris, Jordan Lyles, and Ross Seaton for Hallady.
This package still compares favorably to any the Phillies could muster, unless they throw in Drabek.
Posted by: Scott B. | July 08, 2009 at 05:58 PM
"Yeah, right, because when the Phillies only offer Carrasco, Savery, Donald and Marson you think they will be the only serious bidder? The Mets can and will beat that offer if only to keep him off of Phillies. They can offer Holt, Thole, Tejada, and some guy like Antonini and at least equal that Phillies offer. If that is all you think the Phils are willing to give up they are not getting Halladay."
Who said the Phillies are only offering "Carrasco, Savery, Donald and Marson"?
And even if they are, how in the world do you think "Holt, Thole, Tejada, and some guy like Antonini" matches that? A package such as that might land Millwood or Westbrook, but I cant imagine it even gets a call back on Halladay. The Mets having so little talent above High-A (and so much of it being 20 or under) that talks would undoubtedly start around Martinez and Parnell and still need to include someone like Thole to match what the Phillies will be offering even if Happ, Drabek and Taylor are not possibilities. The Mets probably cant top Carrasco and Brown alone, and wont be in the conversation once more names are added.
Posted by: SuzysMan | July 08, 2009 at 11:16 PM