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By Ben Nicholson-Smith [July 15, 2009 at 12:19pm CST]
Adrian Gonzalez is not on the block. The Padres aren't contenders, but they want to keep their All-Star first baseman and they have many reasons to hold onto Gonzalez:
- He's their best hitter, with 24 homers and a massive walk total (67).
- He adds value on defense, according to FanGraphs.
- He's just 27, playing in his prime.
- They only have to pay him $3MM this year, $4.75MM next year and $5.6MM the year after that.
- They let Trevor Hoffman walk and publicly tried to deal Jake Peavy, so their fans need to see the team commit to one of its stars.
But some of those same points would make Gonzalez incredibly appealing to other clubs. Here are some reasons the Padres could consider dealing him:
- Their team isn't about to win now, or in the near future.
- Gonzalez could command a Mark Teixeira-esque haul.
- His slugging percentage is 115 points higher on the road this year.
- He hinted that he'd like to play for a winner.
So what are your thoughts? Should the Padres entertain offers for their best player?
Cue the ridiculous offers from Braves/Red Sox/Mets/Yankees fans in...3...2...1...
Posted by: unbiasedhomer | July 15, 2009 at 12:21 PM
They have him under control CHEAPLY for another 2.5 years, no chance they trade him for another year and a half, 2 years maybe
Posted by: EastCoastBias | July 15, 2009 at 12:23 PM
Only if they get a massive haul, He makes practically nothing and is still under rated. He would have to bring in some highly touted TOP close to MLB ready prospects now for the Padres to do that.
Posted by: Mickeykoke | July 15, 2009 at 12:23 PM
As a Giants fan, I would give a pretty large package for Gonzalez.
Jonathan Sanchez, Tim Alderson, Nick Noonan, and their choice of any other prospect in our entire farm system not in the big 4.
Posted by: SFG55 | July 15, 2009 at 12:24 PM
In my opinion any team should "listen" to offers for any player. What is the reason to not at least listen? I dont think the padres will, or should, trade gonzalez for anything less than a kings ransom, but if another team's GM wants to call them up and at least make an offer, then why not?
Posted by: dbhammel | July 15, 2009 at 12:26 PM
Maybe next season, which still sucks for Padres fans (what's left of them).
Posted by: 08Phils | July 15, 2009 at 12:26 PM
They could not get any more now than they could next July or during the 2010-2011 offseason.
Posted by: V | July 15, 2009 at 12:27 PM
"As a Giants fan, I would give a pretty large package for Gonzalez.
Jonathan Sanchez, Tim Alderson, Nick Noonan, and their choice of any other prospect in our entire farm system not in the big 4. "
Cue first ridiculous offer.
No Bumgarner or Posey, no deal.
Posted by: V | July 15, 2009 at 12:28 PM
SFG55
SPOT ON. bring in the big boy
Posted by: BBGiants25 | July 15, 2009 at 12:28 PM
The Padres should, yes, and they shouldn't even be adverse to trading him within the division (Giants) if need be.
There's an important distinction to make when stating that he could land a Teixeira-esque haul... we'd be talking about what the Rangers stole from the Braves (Feliz, Andrus, Saltalamacchia, Harrison).
Gonzalez has three years on his deal, while the Braves only got 1.5 of Teixeira.
The Padres won't compete throughout the duration of Adrian's contract. Holding onto him just to save face isn't worth what they could get in return. If they want to compete, they need to build for the future, and Gonzo is at his peak value.
Posted by: MorneauVP | July 15, 2009 at 12:30 PM
Should they listen yes. Should they deal him no. At least no this year. I think he would require more than texeira becasue he is playing on a bad team in Petco. Think of what his numbers would be if he played at Yakee Stadium. If they secretly listen to offers and dont think that it is enough say no. Just becasue you listen doesnt mean you have to trade him. And i would only listen to teams with multiple high end products so as much as it hurts me to say teams like my cubbies would be eliminated immediatly unless they gave a package pf 5-6 of vitters marshall wells the shark geo marmol guzman fuld fox fontenot hart and anyone else in the minors. No one should be untouchable if they trade him this year or next year.
Posted by: BOBBY P | July 15, 2009 at 12:33 PM
I'd also say Peavy outsmarted them with that there no-trade clause as KT agreed to trade him twice but Peavy blocked it.
Ben, another point, the Padres have an MLB-ready stud 1B prospect in Kyle Blanks. He's currently playing left but 1B is his natural position and he's probably their future there.
Posted by: PWHjort | July 15, 2009 at 12:35 PM
The San Diego Padres...a.k.a , the AL secret weapon against the NL. Hoffman, 06. Young, 07. Bell, 09. The NL is fine. Its these Padres that ruin it for the rest of us in the NL.
Trade Gonzo and start rebuilding your god awful club.
Posted by: braves4life | July 15, 2009 at 12:36 PM
As a Giants fan, I would give a pretty large package for Gonzalez.
Jonathan Sanchez, Tim Alderson, Nick Noonan, and their choice of any other prospect in our entire farm system not in the big 4.
Posted by: SFG55 | July 15, 2009 at 12:24 PM
That is not exactly a "Mark Teixeira-esque haul". At the time of the Tex trade, Salty, Andrus, and Feliz were three of the Braves their top 6-7 prospects. That isn't even including the starting pitcher, Matt Harrison that they got or the other minor league reliever. If the Giants want Gonzalez they most certainly will need to trade one or more of their "big four" plus other prospects.
From a Braves' perspective I am guessing that the Pads would insist that Heyward and Freeman (or Hanson and Freeman) be included plus other prospects in any trade for Gonzalez. And they would be right to expect that much for him. But, that isn't happening so Braves fans need not discuss it.
Posted by: BravesAllTheWay | July 15, 2009 at 12:37 PM
The Padres really screwed themselves over this winter by not taking the Braves' offer for Peavy.
Posted by: nymforlife | July 15, 2009 at 12:38 PM
V
Tim Alderson is ranked as the 26th best prospect in all of baseball and one of the 10 best pitchers.
It's not like I said none of the big four. Those four players are the best top four of any team in the majors hands down.
Posted by: SFG55 | July 15, 2009 at 12:39 PM
If Theo can do this without giving up Buchholz, which would be nothing short of incredible, then he should do it. i REALLY like Gonzalez, i hope hes a sox someday but i know hes going to stay put.
Posted by: 04Forever | July 15, 2009 at 12:43 PM
You mean Peavy screwed the Padres? Because KT and FW agreed on a deal that Peavy blocked.
Posted by: PWHjort | July 15, 2009 at 12:43 PM
If the Padres were smart they'd aggresively shop Adrian, Peavy, and Heath Bell. Get something out of them now and build for the future.
Posted by: Cardinals Fan Forever | July 15, 2009 at 12:45 PM
How much money is the AL paying the Padres to keep losing All Star games?
Posted by: braves4life | July 15, 2009 at 12:45 PM
Sanchez throws a NO NO against the anemic Padres offense and people think he has value wow! If he does get dealt IMO he would be dealt to the Mets Red Sox or Angels. maybe I could see the Giants but dont think they have the prospects Boston sure does.
Posted by: Mickeykoke | July 15, 2009 at 12:46 PM
If the Padres can get a package back that sets them up for success in 3/4 years, I think they should do it. They aren't going anywhere with the team they have and it's going to be 3/4/5 years before they can realistically compete. They could get a pretty ridiculous package for him, as a power hitting bat is in high demand these days. If they could get a package that improves 3 or 4 positions and adds a couple high-end prospects, they have to consider it.
If the Red Sox offered up: Buchholz, Bowden, Kalish and Navarro (all within top 11 Sox prospects) plus another low-level prospect with big upside, would the Pads consider it? Considering the team thinks Blanks is ready for the bigs, this could add a top of the rotation starter (Buchholz), a #3/4 type in Bowden, a corner OF bat in Kalish and a SS in Navarro, plus whatever low level prospect they agree upon.
I don't like the idea of emptying the farm system for any one player, but given the glaring need for a corner bat, I think the Sox would have to consider doing so.
Posted by: Papelboner | July 15, 2009 at 12:47 PM
No, they should not. If you are not going to commit to Gonzo at that price, who are you going to commit to?
Posted by: Cougfanrun34 | July 15, 2009 at 12:49 PM
"If the Red Sox offered up: Buchholz, Bowden, Kalish and Navarro (all within top 11 Sox prospects) plus another low-level prospect with big upside, would the Pads consider it? "
That's a fair deal for both sides IMO.
Posted by: melonis rex | July 15, 2009 at 12:49 PM
mickey i was thinking the same thing, just because he threw a NO NO doesn't mean he turned into Sandy Koufax overnight. He's making 13.5 million over the next 2.5 years in that ballpark. That contract is one of the most team-friendly contracts in baseball. How can the Padres possibly trade a hometown kid at that price and expect anyone to buy tickets??
Posted by: EastCoastBias | July 15, 2009 at 12:50 PM
"If the Red Sox offered up: Buchholz, Bowden, Kalish and Navarro (all within top 11 Sox prospects) plus another low-level prospect with big upside, would the Pads consider it? "
That's a fair deal for both sides IMO.
Posted by: melonis rex | July 15, 2009 at 12:50 PM
Here were the stats of the prospects the braves traded to the Rangers at the time of the trade.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/52900-was-mark-teixeiras-trade-to-atlanta-the-worst-trade-in-braves-history
Now here are the stats for the Giants big 4.
1. Madison Bumgarner - SP A+/AA (19) - 9-2, 1.66 era. 66 ks to 20 bbs.
2. Buster Posey - C A+ (22) - .326, 15 homers, 58 rbis.
3. Tim Alderson - SP A+/AA (19) - 6-2, 3.32 era. 61 ks to 15 bbs.
4. Angel Villalona - 1B A+ (18) - .267, 9 hrs, 42 rbis
No way they get two of these, especially when their also getting an MLB pitcher, and two prospects of their choice.
Posted by: SFG55 | July 15, 2009 at 12:51 PM
regarding peavy, they should've shipped him to the braves when they had the chance.
back to the topic- i'll echo everyone else and suggest that they take the approach the jays are w/ halladay. let it be known that he can be had, but only if the return is too good to pass up. they won't be winning in the next 3 years anyway, right?
Posted by: kevin1013 | July 15, 2009 at 12:51 PM
the padres couldnt be more sadder if they tried, they really really need to rebuild this team. offers should be open for EVERY player on the team
Posted by: 04Forever | July 15, 2009 at 12:52 PM
They don't need to worry about dealing him till 2011 which at that seasons end, unless he is dealt, Adrian takes a walk and really gets paid.
Unless his skills diminish, the Pads will still fetch as hefty a sum for him when he is traded in 2011 as they would now.
So, in the meantime he can continue to be the only watchable player and drawing card on a dreadful team.
Posted by: JP | July 15, 2009 at 12:53 PM
Yes, they should.
Towers should demand no less than 2 of a team's top 3 prospects, and then 2-3 B/B- level guys, depending on the quality of the farm system. In other words, a massive, massive haul.
Posted by: melonis rex | July 15, 2009 at 12:53 PM
riddle me this batman. what do the sox do with Lowell when hes back, hes owed some good money and has 2 years left i think
Posted by: 04Forever | July 15, 2009 at 12:58 PM
If you're a team as far away from competing as the Padres are you should absolutely always be listening. I'll be the first to admit that I'm clearly biased though, as a Red Sox fan who absolutely wants AGon on his team (and really what fan wouldn't want Adrian?). I can say with almost absolute certainty though that I'd be in support of him being moved for the RIGHT package even if the deal didn't involve Boston.
Posted by: gfulla | July 15, 2009 at 12:59 PM
"Sanchez throws a NO NO against the anemic Padres offense and people think he has value wow!"
Throwing a no-hitter against ANY Major League team is impressive. I don't care who it is. This doesn't make Sanchez an elite prospect again, I agree, but it definitely enhanced his value. It's also definitely something that should be praised as a feat of excellence, especially when you consider that the only thing that stopped his Perfect Game was Uribe booting a routine ground ball.
The package SFG55 proposed, however, isn't close to enough.
Three years of Gonzalez means saying goodbye to Alderson and Bumgarner, for starters.
The Braves traded:
Jarrod Saltalamacchia (#1 for ATL, #36 in MLB)
Elvis Andrus (#2 for ATL, #65 in MLB)
Matt Harrison (#3 for ATL, #90 in MLB)
Neftali Feliz (Now #1 for Texas, #93 in MLB)
Beau Jones (#10 for ATL)
That was for 1.5 years of Teixeira.
You want Sanchez, Alderson, Noonan, and another B prospect for Gonzo?
C'mon now. You'd be lucky to get out of a trade for Gonzo with one of the Top 4 in your system still; keep in mind they'd be trading him within the division.
Posted by: MorneauVP | July 15, 2009 at 01:01 PM
SFG55, Tim Alderson is NOT the 26th best prospect in baseball according to Baseball America's mid-season top 25. The players outside the top 25 are listed alphabetically by their last name, hence why Alderson is listed first.
And IF their the best top 4 in baseball it's because of Bumgarner and Posey and not so much the latter two. You're also going to have to overpay more than other teams being in the same division AND I can also guarantee their would be several teams that would pay significantly more than your package.
Posted by: gfulla | July 15, 2009 at 01:08 PM
gonzales is in his prime now, and with the way the pads are going, they aren't competing for another 3-4 years. By then gonzales will be 30-31, still prime but you can get good young prospects now for him so they will be bursting onto the scene when gonzales is only one player and will already be 30+
Posted by: johan is GOD | July 15, 2009 at 01:09 PM
Here's why I feel the way you are describing this is unfair.
I've said this before, the Giants top 4 is the BEST top four for any franchise in baseball.
Madison Bumgarner is the best pitching prospect in all of baseball and would be the number 1 prospect in any organization.
Saying he has the same trade value as any teams #1 is completely incorrect.
Alderson may be our #3, but once again would likely be a number 2 in most systems.
And to prove my point, look at the rankings by MORNEAUVP. He lists the players as #1,2,3,1 and 10 in their system but only numbers 36, 65, 90, 93 in MLB.. This is exactly what I'm talking about. The giants top 4 right now are ranked as numbers, 6, 8 26 and 48 in all of MLB.
Prove me wrong again.
Posted by: SFG55 | July 15, 2009 at 01:13 PM
I love AG's game and would love to see im in a Giants Uni, but Bumgarner's not going anywhere. Not for Adrian or anyone else. Anyone else including Posey would be fair game though.
Posted by: JP | July 15, 2009 at 01:13 PM
You don't trade Gonzo. He's said he'll always be a Padres fan, even if he's traded - meaning he'll more than likely take a hometown discount to stay in his hometown even after he's no longer dirt cheap.
As long as you have smart people running the team it really might not take that long to turn this team around, ala 2003-2006 Detroit Tigers. Sell off some lesser pieces that can be used as bullpen help/bench bats for other teams to get some more pieces and see what you can throw together in a few years.
Then hopefully they'll have something other than batting practice pitchers behind Peavy and Young and some position players to put around Gonzo in that lineup and you might have something...
Posted by: Pat Metzger | July 15, 2009 at 01:16 PM
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=law_keith&id=3849879
Tim Alderson is currently the # 5 best right handed pitching prospect according to Keith Law, and he's behind Neftali Feliz, Tommy Hanson, Rick Porcello, and Trevor Cahill.
3 of which are already in the majors, meaning he's the second best right handed pitching prospect in baseball.
Posted by: SFG55 | July 15, 2009 at 01:16 PM
The Mets desperately need a guy like Gonzalez now but they'd have to give up literally every good prospect they have to get it done. I agree that there is almost no way the Padres trade him any time before 2011 just because of how ridiculously cheap he is playing for.
The only way I can see a team getting Gonzalez without giving up a massive haul is if they throw a ton of cash at the Padres in addition to a couple of top prospects.
Posted by: sampsonite168 | July 15, 2009 at 01:17 PM
I agree with the poster who said the Padres lose nothing by listening. You never know what a GM will be willing to offer. The Padres have to be smarting over the missed opportunity with Peavy, so I suspect they'd be more attentive with offers made for Gonzales. I think we all know he'd be a more valuable piece playing for a lot of other teams.
Posted by: BlueSky | July 15, 2009 at 01:19 PM
This is a pretty easy question. Of course they should listen, but they don't need to agree to deal him unless they get an offer that gets them closer to contending than keeping Gonzalez would. I would dearly love for the Braves to get Gonzalez and would be willing to give up a large package of top prospects not named Hanson (does he even count as a prospect any more?) for him. Getting a top 5 all around first baseman while the team is still in contention is more valuable to me than holding onto prospects who won't contribute in the big leagues for another 2-3 years if ever.
Posted by: Ron Edwards | July 15, 2009 at 01:23 PM
They must trade him now while he's still nice about playing for a garbage team. In a year, he'll have demands. They should blow up that whole 3 guys of value they have. Get 5-7 MLB ready now players plus prospects for A-Gon, Bell and Peavy. Why keep any of those guys? Just to pretend you have a chance?
Posted by: newshea | July 15, 2009 at 01:23 PM
SFG,
the rankings were at the time not what their pinnacle was. It is like the red sox trading their top prospect but like 14 ranked prospect in MLB at THAT time. H-Ram is certainly not the 14th best player in baseball
I would go with Posey, Alderson, Villalona, Sosa and Noonan WOULD YOU ACCEPT THAT ?
Posted by: theJonathan | July 15, 2009 at 01:23 PM
Its all a moot point because AG is'nt going anywhere. Not only is he a great player and the face of the franchise, he is also a great link to the Hispanic Fanbase of which the Padres need to appeal to and cultivate because of the local demographics.
Posted by: JP | July 15, 2009 at 01:24 PM
Also for a NOTE: When Strasburg and Aroldis Chapman sign. All the experts (ie Sickels, Sheehan, etc) have said they will both be in front of Bumgardner.
Posted by: theJonathan | July 15, 2009 at 01:29 PM
HAHAHA ok theJonathan
No.
Lets see any other team in baseball even come close to that offer.
1. Posey, the top catcher in the minor leagues.
2. Alderson, currently 5-1 with an era under 3 at AA and still only 19. Top 5 righties in minor leagues.
3. Villalona, an 18 year old with the power upside of Miguel Cabrera, currently top 10 first basemen in minor leagues.
4. Henry Sosa, currently 6-0 with an era under 3 at AA. Power arm.
5. Nick Noonan, arguably best contact hitter in organization, comparable to Connor Gilaspie.
Yea right.
BUT...
I consider that if you take Posey out.
Posted by: SFG55 | July 15, 2009 at 01:33 PM
Its all a moot point because AG is'nt going anywhere. Not only is he a great player and the face of the franchise, he is also a great link to the Hispanic Fanbase of which the Padres need to appeal to and cultivate because of the local demographics.
Posted by: JP | July 15, 2009 at 01:24 PM
So they'll just let him bounce for a couple draft picks?
The Padres will stay in the crapper for a long time if they take demographics into account when making baseball decisions.
Posted by: carini26 | July 15, 2009 at 01:34 PM
Who cares who is in front of him. Still does'nt change the fact I would'nt include Bumgarner in a AG or ANY deal.
Posted by: JP | July 15, 2009 at 01:35 PM
I honestly think they can trade Peavy, Kouz and Bell and be just as productive without trading AG...
If you could get 4-5 top 25 prospects for Peavy and Bell alone, and then include a mid 25-50 prospect for Kouz along with a 50-75 prospect. You already have filled out half of your starting lineup and pitching rotation. Add them to Latos, Adrian Gonz and Blanks to make a nice run.
Posted by: theJonathan | July 15, 2009 at 01:36 PM
Geez SFG55, I guess we should just pencil the Giants in for the World Series in 2012-2014..whats the point in them even playing the games??
Posted by: EastCoastBias | July 15, 2009 at 01:36 PM
THEY DON'T EVEN KNOW HOW OLD CHAPMAN IS!!
Don't give me your crap.
And I would agree that Strasburg could be higher, but Bumgarner is a year removed from high school, dominating the minor leagues (At 3 levels already) and Strasburg is older and has only defeated college hitters. Let's make sure he signs and actually throws the ball before we call him better than a guy who's career stats are 24-5 with a 1.53 era over 3 levels before his 20th birthday.
Posted by: SFG55 | July 15, 2009 at 01:38 PM
Eastcoastbias, your post doesn't even make sense.
Posted by: SFG55 | July 15, 2009 at 01:39 PM
This one is simple... no. You don't trade a lefty slugging first baseman who you have under CHEAP control for three more years in the prime of his career. I can appreciate players wanting to play for contenders, but how about helping your team get there instead. The Padres are not the Nationals.
http://mlbnetworkhire.blogspot.com
Posted by: DStrafford | July 15, 2009 at 01:43 PM
"So they'll just let him bounce for a couple draft picks?"
Did you read my earlier posts. Maybe they'll trade him. My point was that they don't have to. And they certainly don't have to now.
Perhaps they will decide to build around AG.
As far as my demographics comments. I did'nt say he should'nt be traded because he is Hispanic, I said he is a great marketing tool to that particular fanbase, which is undeniable.
He's also young and good.
Posted by: JP | July 15, 2009 at 01:45 PM
If the Giants want to acquire Gonzalez this year (which would obviously be a huge boost to the team), I honestly think they need consider a package which includes: (a) Bumgarner or Posey plus (b) Alderson or Villalona. If not, I don't think there's much to talk about, at least for the rest of this year.
Posted by: David_James | July 15, 2009 at 01:48 PM
The Padres should listen to everything.
A.G. is an absolute STEAL at his salary for the next three years.
This is the opportunity for the Padres to move their organizational talent forward by 1 or 2 years, in one trade.
Posted by: xlazox | July 15, 2009 at 01:52 PM
"Here's why I feel the way you are describing this is unfair.
I've said this before, the Giants top 4 is the BEST top four for any franchise in baseball.
Madison Bumgarner is the best pitching prospect in all of baseball and would be the number 1 prospect in any organization.
Saying he has the same trade value as any teams #1 is completely incorrect.
Alderson may be our #3, but once again would likely be a number 2 in most systems.
And to prove my point, look at the rankings by MORNEAUVP. He lists the players as #1,2,3,1 and 10 in their system but only numbers 36, 65, 90, 93 in MLB.. This is exactly what I'm talking about. The giants top 4 right now are ranked as numbers, 6, 8 26 and 48 in all of MLB.
Prove me wrong again.
Posted by: SFG55 "
First your Keith Law link is from January so a few things have happened since then. Baseball America just released their top 25/50 midseason prospect report. The top 25 are in order and the 26-50 are in alphabetical order. Bumgarner ranks 5th overall, Posey 6th, Alderson in the 26th-50th range, and Villanova doesn't make the cut. 5 RHP's are above Alderson in the top 25, so it is a stretch to say that he is the 2nd best righty in the minors.
No one is arguing that Alderson is a bad prospect, just that he can't headline a deal by himself. What's Noonan's upside? It's not like he's the second coming of Utley. He should be a solid to good starter. Andrus profiled as a potential all star SS. Sure there was a question with the bat, but everyone knew the Speed and defense was legit. Noonan is hitting .240 in High-A right now. Not exactly a player you build a package around. Sanchez also isn't a highly valued target for the Padres, he's entering his Arb. years so that means he will make $2 million+ next season. I mean is that worth it to the Padres? They can pay Josh Greer 400K to put up a losing record and an ERA north of 5.00.
Gonzalez is extremely valuable, even more so than Tex given his contract and team control. The Giants would have to give up a lot more than Alderson and Noonan for any deal to work. If there is any way for the Giants to not have to give up Posey or Maddy-B, it would have to include Alderson, Villanlona, Noonan, Sanchez, Pucetas and Tanner. And that still prob. wouldn't get the deal done.
Posted by: Steveo26 | July 15, 2009 at 01:52 PM
Adrians a great player, but he's not great enough to implode your minor league system.
Posted by: JP | July 15, 2009 at 01:56 PM
Did you read my earlier posts. Maybe they'll trade him. My point was that they don't have to. And they certainly don't have to now.
Perhaps they will decide to build around AG.
As far as my demographics comments. I did'nt say he should'nt be traded because he is Hispanic, I said he is a great marketing tool to that particular fanbase, which is undeniable.
He's also young and good.
Posted by: JP | July 15, 2009 at 01:45 PM
1st point -
I don't think demographics have anything to do with anything. No one is attending Marlins games despite the team featuring a Dominican star in Hanley Ramirez. I doubt the Nats fans ask themselves... "should I blow $20 bucks to see a movie, or should I go to the Nats game because Zimmerman grew up here."
2nd point -
What are they going to build around him with? They have no trade chips outside of Peavy (who won't leave) and Bell. They're trying to shed payroll so they're not going to sign FAs to lucrative deals.
3rd point -
Yes, they don't have to trade him. True. But his value is at its absolute peak and now would be a great time to cash in on a 27 year old GG 1B who happens to be dirt cheap for the next 3 years.
Posted by: carini26 | July 15, 2009 at 02:00 PM
I am a Padres fan (unfortunately) and I am very much in favor of trading A-Gonz, as well as Peavy, Bell, Kouz and Chris Young.
I'm not sure what the Pads can get for Kouz but he would definitely benefit from a new ballpark. He plays adequate defense and has stretches where he can really hit the ball but I think Petco kills his confidence. Bell would be a monster setup guy for a contender with an established closer. Obviously Peavy and A-Gonz are the stars, but I think Chris Young could definitely be a good mid-rotation guy.
Trading all of these guys this season or this offseason will set up the team for the next few years...just as long as they find players who can play in big ass Petco Park.
Posted by: son of sam malone | July 15, 2009 at 02:01 PM
I'd give up both Alderson and Villalona for him, along with others.
But then if the deal gets to be too big, I would rather give it for Prince Fielder.
And no I'm not suggesting he's on the block cause clearly he's not, but in the near future the Brewers hunt for young pitching might just force them to part with Fielder for a handful of high upside arms and an MLB ready starter.
Posted by: SFG55 | July 15, 2009 at 02:02 PM
SFG55, keep in mind that if Adrian is made available, there will be like 10-15 teams in on him. Even if you consider an offer including Posey + Bumgarner to be overpaying, that is almost certainly what the Giants' offer will have to start with in order to be competitive with what other teams offer.
Semi-serious suggestion: maybe there could be a mega blockbuster in which the Giants acquire Gonzo + Bell for Bumgarner, Alderson, Posey and some warm bodies? The Giants are built to win in the next 3 years when Lincecum, Cain, Gonzo, Bell will all be under cost-controlled contract. Is there any doubt that adding those 2 players would make the NLCS a virtual lock to be Giants/Dodgers?
And it would kick-start the Padres' rebuild in a major way with another elite prospect or two to come from a Peavy deal.
Posted by: AkulaMkii | July 15, 2009 at 02:02 PM
buchholz, bowden, kalish, navarro +1 (stated above already) is as good a deal as any I feel... and i'd be on board
Posted by: turntwo003 | July 15, 2009 at 02:15 PM
SFG55- Dude, how 'bout some objectivity? I know you love your Giants, but...jeez. San Fran can certainly make a case for the best top 4 in the game- as arbitrary as that number is- but it's hardly 'hands down' and it's entirely dependent upon promotions. Prior to Wieters' call-up, for instance, the Orioles had Wieters, Tillman, Matusz, and Arrieta as their top 4. Considering Wieters was THE top prospect in the game before his call-up and Tillman and Matusz are ranked second and third among ALL pitching prospects currently in the minors (BA), AND Arrieta is in the same 26-50 range as Alderson (the previous poster was correct in pointing out that BA listed the 26-50 guys alphabetically and not according to any ranking system), while Villalona is still just a projectability guy who has yet to put up numbers in keeping with the hype (though he is exceptionally young and may get there eventually, it's FAR from a sure thing)...I think the O's could make quite a case.
Ditto Texas, prior to the Holland/Andrus promotions- Holland, Andrus, Feliz, and Smoak?! Um, that's pretty darned good.
Presently, I think you've got a pretty strong case, though again, things change quickly, and there are other strong alternatives (Texas can still trot out Smoak, Feliz, Perez, and maybe Borbon?; Baltimore has Tillman, Matusz, Arrieta, and ???- Erbe/Hobgood/Snyder; Philly has Drabek, Taylor, Brown, and Carrasco/Knapp; Tampa boasts a solid quarted of Desmond Jennings, Wade Davis, Matt Moore, and Jeremy Hellickson...). Given the question marks surrounding Villalona, it's more a top 3 battle anyway, and anyway- no one is saying the Giants do NOT have the best top 4. Only that it's open for debate.
What's not open for debate is Adrian Gonzalez's value, which ranks at around stratospheric. To acquire him, someone will have to overpay and IF it's the Giants, it will take a substantial offer. Bumgarner isn't going anywhere. Posey, too, seems untouchable, which ultimately COULD prevent SF from acquiring the Padres' big 1B. IF Posey were included, alongside Alderson and, say, Noonan and Ehire Adrianza OR Brandon Crawford...I could see a deal. Otherwise, I think someone...be it the Red Sox or Braves or whoever...will outbid them.
Oh and yes...The Pads should absolutely listen to any offers on Gonzalez. When you're as bad as they are and as far from competing as they are, you have to be willing to make tough choices. Obviously there's a difference between listening and acting and they shouldn't be in any hurry to rid themselves of the second best 1b in the NL, but... The Peavy injury really hurts now. I know that Pads would much rather try to re-stock the farm system using Jake and Heath Bell; holding off on dealing Gonzalez for at least another year. They still might, but it's time to hear what's out there.
Posted by: milehigh78 | July 15, 2009 at 02:20 PM
"I don't think demographics have anything to do with anything. No one is attending Marlins games despite the team featuring a Dominican star in Hanley Ramirez"
But they sure came out to see Livian Hernadez. Again, nobody is saying its THE reason they should keep him. What is said that it is an added dimension to his popularity. The Latino market is a HUGE, HUGE marketable target in San Diego, and it does'nt hurt to have the face of your franchise possesing the ability to attract it. AGAIN, I'm NOT saying it should be THE reason the Padres should'nt trade him.
2. Ask Billy Beane how constantly trading off all your good players is going these days. It worked a couple times for him but eventually the fans get sick of constant rebuilding. Somewhere, somehow fans want consistancy. They want stars they know will be around for awhile.
3. Trading AG would be on a lesser plane like trading Pujols. Look what the Cards have done around him. Players have come and gone, but he's remained. The Padres management don't need to trade AG, they need to be smarter and wiser with the other moves they make.
Posted by: JP | July 15, 2009 at 02:21 PM
Sabean will not trade Bumgarner or Posey.
Mark it down, quote me, whatever you have to do.
For the past 10 years, the Giants have been in win now mode, and clearly haven't had much success (except for a few years).
No top prospects, not even any really good prospects.
Now we have one of the top farm systems in baseball thanks to a handful of amazing drafts (ex: 2007 when Bum and Ald were selected in the same round).
Sabean has come under heavy fire for not building a good minor league system but all of a sudden, we're looking at some premier prospects in all of baseball, and generally good teams throghout the organization. For example, San Jose (A+) won the first half league championship and are now 16-3 in the second half.
If Sabean trades away these players, it will be viewed as win now, and his job will be someone elses in a matter of months. He's not that stupid and we will see both Bumgarner and Posey wearing orange and black soon enough.
Posted by: SFG55 | July 15, 2009 at 02:22 PM
One thing Milehigh,
2008: Angel Villalona, 17 years old, same age as most juniors in high school, first full season of professional baseball, he bats .263 with 17 homers and 64 rbis in 124 games.
You call that doing nothing? Seriously?
Posted by: SFG55 | July 15, 2009 at 02:28 PM
SFGG, The difference is Adrian is young enough to help a team win now and for the next 5, 6, 7 years. He's not Kenny Loften or Ellis Burks. I can see the Giants possibly dangling Posey(unlikely but possible) but I see no scenario for Sabean even throwing Bumgarner's name out. Not only because of Madison's potential, but also because Sabean has always coveted pitching. Why do you think he did'nt give any up in the off season and probably won't for the remainder either.
Posted by: JP | July 15, 2009 at 02:37 PM
Sabean will not trade Bumgarner or Posey.
Mark it down, quote me, whatever you have to do.
Posted by: SFG55 | July 15, 2009 at 02:22 PM
Then quit discussing Adrian Gonzalez because there is no way you get him without one of those two plus a good package of other prospects. Gonzalez is one of the best players in baseball, is in the prime of his career,and has a reasonable contract without a NTC. Most every team in baseball would be bidding for him if he were availabe. If you think the Giants could get him without giving up either of their top prospects you are sadly mistaken.
Posted by: BravesAllTheWay | July 15, 2009 at 02:40 PM
its between the giants and sox if hes available IMO
"If the Red Sox offered up: Buchholz, Bowden, Kalish and Navarro (all within top 11 Sox prospects) plus another low-level prospect with big upside, would the Pads consider it? "
personally i would try to hang on to one of the 2 mostly buchholz but in case theo refuses to give up buchholz would the pads consider a michael bowden,josh riddick, anthony rizzo ,justin masterson deal
while it doesnt give them buchholz it does give them alot more hitting in return (see if the would except navvaro in place of rizzo first) would they bite?
Posted by: zeppelin3593 | July 15, 2009 at 02:40 PM
Zepp, I don't think that offer would be competitive with what other teams would offer.
Keep in mind that basically EVERY team that wants a shot at contention and does not already have a stud 1B would be bidding on Adrian.
He's excellent, cheap and in the prime of his career.
Posted by: AkulaMkii | July 15, 2009 at 02:43 PM
"But they sure came out to see Livian Hernadez. Again, nobody is saying its THE reason they should keep him. What is said that it is an added dimension to his popularity. The Latino market is a HUGE, HUGE marketable target in San Diego, and it does'nt hurt to have the face of your franchise possesing the ability to attract it. AGAIN, I'm NOT saying it should be THE reason the Padres should'nt trade him."
No they didn't. They came out because the Marlins had a pretty good team in '97. Attendance numbers before and after '97 suggest Hernandez had little to do with the overall numbers, despite being a Cuban born player playing in Miami.
I mean, from a marketing standpoint, I agree it doesn't hurt Gonzalez is from the area... but that's the last thing I would have in mind when deciding to trade him.
"2. Ask Billy Beane how constantly trading off all your good players is going these days. It worked a couple times for him but eventually the fans get sick of constant rebuilding. Somewhere, somehow fans want consistancy. They want stars they know will be around for awhile."
Ask Larry Beinfest the same thing. But this is besides the point. Owners tell the GMs the budget for the year. It's the GMs job to put together a competitive product with what they got. Unfortunately, the fans don't have much say, no matter if they show up or not.
"3. Trading AG would be on a lesser plane like trading Pujols. Look what the Cards have done around him. Players have come and gone, but he's remained. The Padres management don't need to trade AG, they need to be smarter and wiser with the other moves they make."
Two completely different tales. Pujols signed a long term, 9 figure extension. Of course players are going to come and go. AG doesn't have a prayer of signing a long term extension in SD... even if he wants to stay. He'll want a contract that SD can't pay, and he deserves it... and he deserves playing for a contender.
Posted by: carini26 | July 15, 2009 at 02:44 PM
^then i would replace bowden with buchholz which probably will end up either making or breaking this deal and sub masterson for ryan kalish
Posted by: zeppelin3593 | July 15, 2009 at 02:45 PM
I think every team that isn't a contender should at least listen to offers for their top players. I mean, why not? It doesn't mean you have to execute the deal, but you never know what a team might offer. But in this case, with him being so young and relatively inexpensive, I wouldn't trade him unless someone absolutely blew me away.
The Sox won't trade Buchholz, Theo loves his potential.
Posted by: rememberthecoop | July 15, 2009 at 02:46 PM
but if it means gettting gonzo and having a lineup for several yrs (if they re-sign bay) of youk ,gonzo,bay we just got a whole lot more dangerous
Posted by: zeppelin3593 | July 15, 2009 at 02:51 PM
If we got Adrian, I think it would be Alderson + Villalona+ others...
Many others will overpay for him. Adrian is still WAY underpaid..
IMO MadBum, Posey, Crawford are the untouchables...
Posted by: 55saveslives | July 15, 2009 at 02:55 PM
"Semi-serious suggestion: maybe there could be a mega blockbuster in which the Giants acquire Gonzo + Bell for Bumgarner, Alderson, Posey and some warm bodies? The Giants are built to win in the next 3 years when Lincecum, Cain, Gonzo, Bell will all be under cost-controlled contract. Is there any doubt that adding those 2 players would make the NLCS a virtual lock to be Giants/Dodgers?"
How do you say Semi-serious??
We give up our TOP 3 PROSPECTS?? PLUS MORE??
I'd rather trade far less for Prince or let it ride with Ishi and save money to try to land Holliday or Bay after season...
WOW...
Posted by: 55saveslives | July 15, 2009 at 02:59 PM
carini26, we'll agree to disagree on points
My bottom opinion is that it just does'nt make much sense to trade him right now. Not in this economic environment where most teams would rather invest in producing an even cheaper version of AG instead of ridding themselves of their top prospects and still having to pay AG huge in two years.
Of course there are a few teams that can still swing it regardless of economics, so who knows.
Posted by: JP | July 15, 2009 at 03:03 PM
I think the Giants will go after att Holliday in the off season
But here's what scares me, tell me if you agree 55saveslives.
1. The Red Sox will resign Bay, its gonna happen. The Yankees will need to counter with a big signing of their own. Being that Matsui is done after this year, LF becomes New York's biggest need.
2. Matt Holliday already has desires to play in pinstripes.
3. He shouldn't be looking at a monster contract because of his poor performance this year, but trying to outbid the Yankees usually ends bad one way or another. Most of the time you can't offer as much money, and if we somehow do, we could be looking at another Aaron Rowand deal.
4. Which Holliday shows up anyway? The .320/25/100 we used to know, or the .275/8/40 guy of the present?
Posted by: SFG55 | July 15, 2009 at 03:08 PM
SFG55: Milehigh isn't wrong. Sure Villalona isn't even 19 yet but he is struggling in High A. Its not as if he's taking the minors by storm. Until he starts having an OPS north of .800 and cutting down on the SO's its hard to say that he's a can't miss prospect, so that does decrease his value. If Balt. offered a package built around Arrieta and Brandon Snyder, or Texas with a Perez and Borbon deal I'd take those over an Alderson and Villalona package. In all three of those cases you have a righty in the 26-50 range and a guy who prob just missed the cut. Snyder and Borbon are nearly ML ready, whereas Villalona is 2-3 years away best case senario.
Also beyond those top two guys Texas has a much deeper system and I think the O's probably do as well. Most of the Giants best prospects are Noonan, Tanner, Barnes, Ehire Adrianza, Rafael Rodriguez ect. are all 2-4 years from being ML ready. Even their 2008 draft class (outside of Posey) Gillaspie, Kieschnick, Crawford will all need at least 2 years before they can make the jump. Other organizations can offer the Padres ML ready talent, to go along with a couple of high upside centerpieces a la Perez and Borbon.
Posted by: Steveo26 | July 15, 2009 at 03:08 PM
"I'd give up both Alderson and Villalona for him, along with others.
But then if the deal gets to be too big, I would rather give it for Prince Fielder."
You do realize that Fielder isn't as good as Gonzalez, when you factor in defense?
As well as the fact that Fielder is going to get really expensive really quickly?
If the Giants want Gonzalez and say that Bumgarner and Posey are untouchable, then it's going to take something like Alderson, Villalona, Crawford, Noonan/Sosa, and a fifth prospect.
The Padres won't move Gonzalez unless they're blown away, and even moreso for a divisional rival in San Francisco.
"buchholz, bowden, kalish, navarro +1 (stated above already) is as good a deal as any I feel... and i'd be on board"
Two of Buchholz/Bowden/Kelly, one of Kalish/Reddick, one of Navarro/Tejeda, and one of Pimental/Almanzar/Hagadone/Price?
The Red Sox would definitely be in the running if the Pads are listening in.
"Gonzo + Bell for Bumgarner, Alderson, Posey and some warm bodies?"
Even I think that you're giving up way too much in that deal. Those are three elite prospects, and as good as Gonzalez/Bell are, they're a closer and a first baseman, and that's just too much talent to give up.
Posted by: scribbletone | July 15, 2009 at 03:10 PM
Theo loves the potential of Buchholz, no doubt. But up until now, he's never been mentioned in any big trade rumors. It's always been for Salty/Teagarden/etc. and I was always in agreement that Buchholz just had too much potential to give up for someone who had so many question marks. Now, if you want a proven MLB 1B who is on an extremely reasonable contract, I think the discussion starts with Buchholz. For someone like AG, I am more than willing to give up Clay. While I love Clay, his potential, and the Sox depth at SP, if we can get a guy like AG you have to do it. The Sox have a lot of really good pitching in the minors and could afford to do a deal like the one I proposed earlier, as much as it would hurt. The Sox would still be left with guys like Tazawa, Hagadone, Casey Kelly, etc. who show some very good potential. Still, if Theo insisted upon keeping Buchholz, the Sox have plenty of arms on the farm that could entice the Pads.
Posted by: Papelboner | July 15, 2009 at 03:11 PM
Of course they should entertain offers. Every team should entertain offers for every player. This is a stupid question - there is not a single player in the game that is absolutely 100% untouchable.
The question should be, simply, what should the Padres be willing to accept for Gonzalez.
The answer is: significantly more than what the Jays want for Halladay, and in all likelyhood more than any team would be willing to pay.
Posted by: bobo | July 15, 2009 at 03:15 PM
55saves:
I say it as semi-serious because it will absolutely require BOTH posey and bumgarner to make the Giants' offer for Adrian match what other teams will offer. Alderson for Bell seems decent as well.
Consider: you're getting 2 established top-level performers who are cost-controlled for 3 years in exchange for 3 guys who are cost-controlled for 6 years each who MAY become top-level performers, but the odds are that at least one of the 3 will disappoint.
Plus, the Giants would be maximizing their opportunity to contend while Lincecum/Cain are under their control. By the time Bumgarner/Posey/Alderson are ready to contribute, Lincecum/Cain may be gone to the highest bidder.
Furthermore, Adrian and Bell would add little to the payroll, allowing them to still sign Holliday or Bay after the season or hold the money to ensure they re-sign Lincecum.
Posted by: AkulaMkii | July 15, 2009 at 03:18 PM
carini26, we'll agree to disagree on points
My bottom opinion is that it just does'nt make much sense to trade him right now. Not in this economic environment where most teams would rather invest in producing an even cheaper version of AG instead of ridding themselves of their top prospects and still having to pay AG huge in two years.
Of course there are a few teams that can still swing it regardless of economics, so who knows.
Posted by: JP | July 15, 2009 at 03:03 PM
I think we'll definitely agree to disagree. Every team would love to have a cheaper version of AG... but the bottom line is they don't. That's what makes AG so valuable. And that's why it's worth looking at offers of players who *potentially* could become the next AG. Similar to the Beckett/HRam trade. You hold a valuable asset that will bounce as soon as FA approaches, so trade him now for a valuable, young, and cheap player in the minors... v. letting Beckett walk for picks.
Posted by: carini26 | July 15, 2009 at 03:18 PM
Alderson and Villalona are both prospects that are losing a little bit of luster. Villalona is continuing to be out of shape and hack at everything. Age be damned if he does not show improvement in areas he is deficient from year to year then he is not progressing. Alderson is showing to be more low ceiling high floor guy. Not what the Padres would be wanting to build a trade around if they are looking to move Gonzalez.
Posted by: cwilli | July 15, 2009 at 03:20 PM
i think the only person theo would say untouchable to is casey kelly and possibly anderson and im starting to lean towards papelboner's idea of bowden,buchholz,kalish,navarro +1 tbd player
while it does dismantle the top tier of pitching we are still left with tazawa,kelly,pimentel all of which have huge potential so if it meant gonzo id do it
Posted by: zeppelin3593 | July 15, 2009 at 03:23 PM
Padres would be fools to keep Gonzalez. Peavy's situation highlights the fact that Gonzalez will never be more valuable than he is today. All sorts of things can go wrong in 2010/2011, not the least of which is a major injury.
If the team won't be competitive this year or next (and they won't) move the big guy now and start that rebuilding process. Continue down that path by moving Peavy and listening to offers on Bell.
The Pads could go from one of the worst farm systems to the one of the best literally overnight by moving a few players. And while it will be painful for the fans, the net effect is immaterial. The Padres are bad team with Gonzalez, Bell, and Peavy and they will still be a bad team when those guys are gone.
Posted by: bjsguess | July 15, 2009 at 03:26 PM
"Consider: you're getting 2 established top-level performers who are cost-controlled for 3 years in exchange for 3 guys who are cost-controlled for 6 years each who MAY become top-level performers, but the odds are that at least one of the 3 will disappoint."
Which means that you get two top level performers for a total of 12 years, so even if one disappoints, you're still getting far more value out of what you're trading.
And that doesn't even mention that Gonzalez plays a non-premium defensive position and Bell is reliever, while Posey projects to be a plus defender behind the plate, and Alderson and Bumgarner both have top of the rotation upside.
Sorry, but that deal still makes absolutely no sense for the Giants.
"Villalona is continuing to be out of shape and hack at everything. Age be damned if he does not show improvement in areas he is deficient from year to yearvthen he is not progressing."
But he's still just 18, doesn't turn 19 until mid-August, and he has monster raw power.
The numbers in High A this year are disappointing, but it's still just his age 18 season, and there's a lot of development time left for him.
He needs to start to make some strides soon, but he's still one of the best power prospects in the game.
Posted by: scribbletone | July 15, 2009 at 03:26 PM
Scrible:
"Which means that you get two top level performers for a total of 12 years, so even if one disappoints, you're still getting far more value out of what you're trading."
If they perform at top level for all 6 years, this is true. However, not everyone pulls a Braun/Longoria and starts killing as soon as they come up. It usually takes at least 2 years for guys to start producing as top-level guys. I figure that between the 3 of those prospects, you're likely to get a total of 8 years of top-level production after accounting for injury/adjustment/development/underperforming.
Prospects are being severely overvalued in the market right now because everyone has learned that cost-controlled youngsters are a good thing. However, guys like Alex Gordon, Phil Hughes, Homer Bailey, etc. illustrate that sometimes even highly-touted can't-miss prospects don't turn out so well.
Posted by: AkulaMkii | July 15, 2009 at 03:35 PM
SFG55: First I think you are right, the Giants will have to over come the Yanks, Red Sox and probably another top market team to get their hands on Bay/Holliday. I also think that the Giants may be leery of giving another 4-6 year deal at $14-16 million, after the Zito and Rowand (and even Renteria) miscues. They would need to pay more to Bay next season then Gonzalez would get for the next 2 and a half seasons.
If they were to acquire Gonzalez then the playoffs would be pretty well within reach. Without him I think they will have a hard time down the stretch (yes they are in prime position but do you really think that every other team will sit tight?). If they make the playoffs this season their attendance will be up down the stretch and throughout the playoffs. And season tickets will be up next year. Not to mention the indirect boosts in revenue, through merch., parking, concessions, ect. These revenue enhancements will allow the Giants to be more aggressive next year in FA and make it easier to give long term deals to Lincecum and Cain. The Giants could add a couple free agents since they'd have their big bat. Say O. Hudson and Nady, or one of the many other 2nd tier players.
Posted by: Steveo26 | July 15, 2009 at 03:36 PM
Scribble: You are right that Villalona has monster power, but he needs to show it in the game and not just in bp. Sure he's still young for his level but he has really started to struggle. Also he had the injury that took him out of the future's game, that looks like it will cost him at least the rest of July. His plate discipline is a big issue, unless something major changes he will have to probably have another full year in High-A. While that still puts him ahead of the curve, some of the luster wears off if you figure it will take him 3 years to make the jump to the majors (and i mean 3 years from now, mid 2012).
Posted by: Steveo26 | July 15, 2009 at 03:48 PM
"Prospects are being severely overvalued in the market right now because everyone has learned that cost-controlled youngsters are a good thing. However, guys like Alex Gordon, Phil Hughes, Homer Bailey, etc. illustrate that sometimes even highly-touted can't-miss prospects don't turn out so well."
This. All the way. They're still prospects, and they still have a pretty decent bust rate. You can't value their future production the way you'd value a MLBer's current production. You just can't. It's ridiculous.
Posted by: melonis rex | July 15, 2009 at 04:03 PM
I believe what most of the anti-trade Gonzales crowd fails to understand is that IF they keep A.G and he does not resign the Padres have wasted their biggest chip in re-tooling the farm system and competing in 2012+. Many think it will take 5+ years for the Padres to compete. So AG is going to sit back and get hammered for the next 5 years and then resign for less than what NYY, Boston or LAA or another big market team is gonna pay?
Seems unlikely. If the organization was in a different part of rebuilding I would say dont trade him, but they need top young prospects and AG can get them that quickly.
San Diego should focus on teams that have young talent and can afford to trade 2 or more top pieces + other parts without much trouble. Yankees are out bc of Tex, Boston seems ideal as a match as does San Francisco.
Waiting is a gamble for San Diego.
Another point, this argument that AG brings in the Mexican community is kind of bogus, nobody goes to the games now that he is there. What makes you think tickets are gonna move quicker when the Padres loss more games?
Posted by: CircusFresh | July 15, 2009 at 04:03 PM
"This. All the way. They're still prospects, and they still have a pretty decent bust rate. You can't value their future production the way you'd value a MLBer's current production. You just can't. It's ridiculous. "
And they are not being valued like current major leaguers. If they were, they'd be worth even more. The absolute upside of Hughes makes him a $20-25M dollar per year starter, under control for 5 more years, being paid a total of about $20M. Say an $80M bargain.
Gonzalez is worth say $50M over this season and the next two, getting paid about $12M.
If prospects were valued based on their upside, Hughes would be worth TWO Gonzalez. Obviously he's not.
Top prospects are immensely valuable because their expected value (performance level times probability of reaching that performance level, at many different performace levels) makes them so.
Posted by: bobo | July 15, 2009 at 04:20 PM
I think all the talk about alienating the fanbase won't matter if you take apart the WHOLE team. If you do pieces, then you'll have a problem because you'll have some high contracts, but with their t.v. contract, the nice ballpark, and the allure of seeing the other teams that come to town, they should still be making good money there. I think every time I watch a Mariners-Padres game in San Diego on t.v. the stadium is packed and that can't be the biggest draw there. The reality is that if they bring in a ton of talent, then the team will eventually win games and fans will come when they are winning, they always do.
Bell would be a good fit for the Marlins, with Kouzmanoff being a throw in... Kevin isn't a headliner, he's an add on, but they could use an upgrade at 3B. Probably they could get Sean West (SP), Isaac Galloway (OF), Emilio Bonifacio (2B), and Brett Sinkbeil (RP).
They leave Giles to play out the season and then hit his ass with the door on the way out.
Peavy has many takers obviously, but he'll want to be on a young team with the chance to compete every year. His business partner is Oswalt, so maybe he's really only interested in going to wherever Roy is pitching or else just use his no trade clause to stay in San Diego.
Houston doesn't seem like a good fit as they are already over budget and without any tradeable commodities, as far as prospects, that would elicit a team parting with an ace, especially of the triple crown ilk. I could see Houston trading Oswalt and maybe they both punch their ticket to the same team as part of a 3 way deal.
Padres want youth and Houston wants to win in the next year or two, so a team would be able to keep from giving all prospects or all players from the MLB roster. Let's give the White Sox as an example. Peavy didn't want to go there, but if Oswalt was acquired, he'd probably say yes.
Poreda, Richard, and two fringe prospects was okay'd for Peavy, so let's figure out the Astros part of it.
They start with John and Jordan Danks, just because they need outfield help, the brothers are from Texas, and I'm not overly familiar with the White Sox system. Probably Chicago would have to add a piece or two, but if they took Carlos Lee and his contract, it would make more sense. The Astros would have to take something back in the way of a heavy contract to help offset the money. I was thinking Contreras because it's his walk year and then you add Josh Fields to play 3B in Houston. Miguel Tejada is owed around only $6MM more this year and would allow the White Sox to move Alexei Ramirez in the deal to give good return value to the Astros and open up SS next season for Beckham. Tejada would be able to get a couple prospects when offered arbitration, so it would help to restock Chicago's system and they'd probably have to deal Carlos Quentin to Houston as a PTBNL for when he recovers from his injury. San Diego and more specifically Houston would have to kick in money. The Astros would also have to take back Linebrink and his almost $20MM deal for Sampson, same number of control years, but the difference helps even the money out and both are solid RH relievers.
Chris Young would then go to Houston with Will Venable. Felipe Paulino (SP) would go to San Diego with Jordan Lyles (SP).
So it would be...
To Chicago...
Carlos Lee $18.5MM
Miguel Tejada $13MM
Roy Oswalt $14MM
Jake Peavy $8MM
Chris Sampson $449K
which would be an increase of roughly $26MM this season. They would dump about $8.5MM to Houston and another $500K to San Diego. Getting $2MM from San Diego and maybe $5MM this year from Houston, leaving them to figure out the other $10MM. With Dayan Viciedo at 3B and Beckham at SS, they'll have affordable players to offset the small increase in payroll, ticket sales and merchandise would go up significantly with those player acquisitions and would all add to the pie.
To Houston
Chris Young $4.5MM
Will Venable $402.3K
Carlos Quentin $550K
Josh Fields $410K
Alexei Ramirez $1.1MM
John Danks $520K
Jordan Danks --
Jose Contreras $10MM
Scott Linebrink $4.5MM
Figureing that they are shedding significant contracts that would burden the team in the future, this is a win for Houston. They are also adding young core players at SS, 3B, and LF to mature with Pence and Bourn. They also are adding two top of the rotation SP to compliment Wandy and a setup guy to build a three headed closer in LaTroy, Valverde, and Linebrink.
To San Diego
Aaron Poreda min.
Clayton Richard $405K
Felipe Paulino $405K
Jordan Lyles min.
White Sox Prospect min.
White Sox Prospect min.
They obviously would be moving $12.5MM and it would be assumed they would have to add about $5-7.5MM over the remaining years. My guess it would be $2MM towards the remaining year and $1MM to Houston towards Young. The biggest thing is that they would have the pieces to build an awesome rotation and can spend the rest of their talent on position help.
The last guy is the main questions, so I saved him for last. We'll say that Gonzalez stays on the west coast and goes to Seattle. With the farm system the Mariners have put together, especially since Jack Z. took over, while only a few months, has been impressive, some of the credit does have to go to Bavasi, but if he didn't get rid of players at a record pace, then it would have left a better long term image of the talent evaluating he did as well.
Adrian Gonzalez would go to Seattle for a host of position prospects and a couple good arms. Wlad Balentien, Greg Halman, Phillippe Aumont, Jeff Clement, Justin Thomas, and Ronny Cedeno should get it done with the Mariners also getting Edgar Gonzalez to come in and play a utility role for the team.
San Diego would then look like this by 2010-2011
C - Jeff Clement/Nick Hundley
1B - Kyle Blanks
2B - Emilio Bonifacio
SS - Everth Cabrera/Ronny Cedeno
3B - Chase Headley
LF - Wlad Balentien
CF - Tony Gwynn Jr.
RF - Greg Halman
OF - Isaac Galloway/Drew Macias
SP - Phillippe Aumont
SP - Clayton Richard
SP - Aaron Poreda
SP - Felipe Paulino
SP - Sean West
CP - Brett Sinkbeil
SU - Cla Meredith
SU - Edward Mujica
LS - Justin Thomas
RP - Greg Burke
RP - Luke Gregerson
RP - Luis Perdomo
This is a little throw together and I know three team trades are never that many players, but if it makes sense you do the trade and I think it makes a lot of sense for all these clubs and accomplishes what they want to do.
Posted by: Iknowalilsomethingaboutsomething | July 15, 2009 at 04:24 PM
I'm just gonna go ahead and say that trading Gonzalez would be a huge mistake for the Padres.
I know all you guys love to dog on how terribly the team is playing and that we're so far from competing in the near future. But consider how this team would be doing without injuries to Peavy, Young, Hundley, Eckstein, Cabrera (who I think would be a RotY candidate if he'd been starting since April), and without trading Hairston (who also had a DL-stint). Sure they might not be in the hunt, but they wouldn't be the last place piece of crap you see right now.
In my eyes, If everyone remains healthy on this team, and if management wises up and tries to get some real players in FA, they could be a .500 team or better. We have a good young bullpen that is in serious need of starters that can go longer than 4-5 innings, and we have young guys who still could come around and start performing (no sane person would give up on Headley, Hundley, or Blanks at this point). I just don't see the point of replacing these young learning-on-the-job players with even more young learning-on-the-job players.
Gonzalez, while valuable, is someone I'd much rather build AROUND instead of throwing him to another team for prospects. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to have high-level prospects, but trading Gonzalez would be even worse of a "towel-throwing" move than the Hairston deal was. Trading Hairston already made Padres fans frustrated with management as it is, could you imagine the ****storm a Gonzalez deal would bring? He is exactly the middle-of-the-order, everybody-loves-him hitter we've been PRAYING for this last decade, and to toss him out for even MORE rebuilding years (keep in mind that this year was a rebuilding year, so none of this garbage about having to START rebuilding this team) is unbelievably depressing to think about.
I'm okay with trading Kouz or Bell or even Peavy or Young, but trading away the best thing to happen to this team in recent years is something I just couldn't stand to see.
Posted by: JollyWaffle | July 15, 2009 at 04:25 PM
I know for the Braves the conversation probably would start with Freeman.
Although I wonder if they would take a package centered around Yunel Escobar?
Escobar
Kris Medlen
Casey Kotchman
Couple of Minor League players
They get a top SS in the ML offensively and defensively.
ML ready pitcher.
ML first baseman that is under control just as long and allows them to develop a 1B prospect.
After that im not sure what they would want from our minor league system
Posted by: drumzalicious | July 15, 2009 at 04:27 PM