Stark On Dodgers, Giants, Brewers

The way the Indians are spiraling right now, I would be shocked if Lee and V-Mart are not traded by the deadline.

I think the Indians will probably be 15+ games out of first by the end of the month and management will have to face facts: they need to rebuild.

I think Wedge gets the axe and V-Mart gets dealt to a team that needs a 1B bat (ie. Giants) along with Lee.

Personally, I think the Dodgers will end up with Lee for McDonald, Elbert, maybe DeWitt and another lower level pitching prospect.

There's no doubt the Indians need arms and McDonald and Elbert are two pretty good ones.

DeWitt is also a nice middle infield prospect.

Its a fair package for Lee, who they are most likely NOT re-signing and who they only have for 1 more year.

I think the Indians have to face facts that they are not going to contend next year and need to stockpile some good, young, major league ready talent.

Its just a shame the Dodgers will practically be stockpiling all that talent between these guys and catcher Carlos Santana.

But the Dodgers just can't resist a playoff rotation of:

RHP Billingsley
LHP Lee
RHP Kuroda
LHP Kershaw

Plus, the Dodgers will likely re-sign Lee and Kuroda after next year anyways so they should be set with 80% of the rotation for the foreseeable future.

I wouldn't mind the Giants picking up V-Mart. Hope Sabean dosn't trade away an arm and a leg for him. What about Sizemore, is he on the block too? T Haff?

Sizemore wont be traded for at least 5 yrs, so no. Also, he would cost Lineceum+.

With the Dodgers, the only names that are serious are Bedard and Lee. Are the really going to get moved, or are they going to be trading for a mid-rotation guy?

I agree that Elbert should be given a few starts in the rotation. He has the stuff, just needs some more experience/time, he would be there had it not been for his shoulder surgery... The Dodgers seem to have a pretty strong 5 the way it is... They have the strong bullpen to back them also. They have the best record in the league, why not just leave it alone??

Assuming Cain, Lincecum, Bumgardner, Alderson, Villalona & Posey are not available, do the Giants even have enough to persuade the Indians into letting go of V-Mart? Or get any power hitter for that matter? Trust me, I hope they do, but I'm just not sure it's there...

I was just reading an ad about Grady Sizemore might need elbow surgery. Coun't him out. Wonder what it would take for the Giants to land Johnson? Less than it would to get V mart. Seems like everyone thinks The Giants top two pitching prospects are not worth anything on there own. Espeacially now since everyone seems to need good pitching

would SF give up pitching for dye+?

"Yours is named Kershaw"

Clayton Kershaw is not a prospect anymore, and in 2 years will most likely be better than Lee.

No thanks I rather see Nomo pitch again than give up Kershaw.

Posted by: 661dodgerblue | July 01, 2009 at 06:41 PM

Exactly. Kershaw will be BETTER than Cliff Lee in a couple years.

Once his changeup is perfected (according to Ausmus its pretty impressive already), then his stuff profiles like Johan in his prime.

And once his curve is perfected (and he has been throwing it more effectively the last few starts), then his stuff also profiles like Koufax.

Not saying he can be Koufax BUT he can certainly be Johan.

Trust me, the Indians will be sellers at the deadline and they will most likely take a package of Elbert and McDonald plus others for Lee.

Jason F, trust me, you will be getting a very good deal long term as both those guys are prospects of very high caliber to acquire in this day and age of baseball when teams are VERY reluctant to deal their good prospects.

Carlos Lee makes WAY too much. This season he is making $19MIL. No way Tigers will take on that contract with Maggs already on an outrageous contract. Only way it could happen is if Houston pays for some of the contract, which they probably will not do.

One guy that I would like to see them pursue is Brad Hawpe. He is making $5.5MIL this season and is relatively young. I'm not sure what it would take to acquire him, however.

"(according to Ausmus its pretty impressive already)"

What the hell is Ausmus going to say? It sucks?

Yea. That'd be great for Kershaw's confidence.

The Indians don't need to trade Cliff Lee. He is signed below market value for this year and a cheap option for next. They won't give him up for something that is fair, which is what all you guys seem to be missing. They will only give him up if they are "overwhelmed" which Elbert and McDonald will not do.

There isn't a pitcher out there available that is worth giving up Kershaw, and yes, that includes Cliff Lee. Personally, I think a far more viable target for the Dodgers is Erik Bedard. As he's a pending FA, he'll bc cheaper than guys like Halladay and Lee.

Elbert's AA stats:

62.1 IP, 2-3,3.90 ERA 87, K's

McDonald's AAA stats before call up:

30 IP, 1-0, 3.26 ERA, 40 K's, .196 BAA

Notice the K's to IP ratio for both.

Elbert was a No. 1 pick and before shoulder surgery a couple years ago was rated the No. 1 prospect in the Dodgers' farm system. He is back healthy again and is regaining his form that made him so highly touted.

McDonald was the Dodger Minor League Pitcher of the Year 2 years in a row.

Both can reach mid-90's with their fastballs (but usually they sit in the low 90's) and both have very good secondary pitches.

The No. 1 priority of the Indians should definitely be PITCHING ARMS, and major league ready ones at that.

Outside of Lee, the Indians have NOBODY of note in their rotation (Pavano's fluke season doesn't count). Carmona is a mess.

On top of that, the bullpen is also a mess.

Exactly how are the Indians going to compete if they hold unto Lee instead of dealing him for multiple arms?

Even IF Hafner can stay healthy next year (good luck with that) AND Sizemore bounces back from offseason elbow surgery, their lack of pitching would not allow the Indians to compete.

My point is, the Indians probably need to come to the realization that they are rebuilding and deal assets who are close to free agency to usable pieces who are good, young prospects and are cost controlled for longer periods of time.

right now? schierholtz +older for dye +younger

V-mart? gigantes can wait for a year and afford a free-agent run. for some teams plunking it down may be worth it now, but not for SF

timing is tough for dodgers. they are one of those teams in position to trade some of their yutes for a V-mart, but they need a pitcher and V-marts arms aren;t out there this year.

their worst nightmare? cito gaston. the most underrated manager of all-time has the jays competitive, because otherwise the LADs could have easily managed a deal for Halladay.

'timing is tough for dodgers. they are one of those teams in position to trade some of their yutes for a V-mart, but they need a pitcher and V-marts arms aren;t out there this year.

their worst nightmare? cito gaston. the most underrated manager of all-time has the jays competitive, because otherwise the LADs could have easily managed a deal for Halladay."

What does V-Mart have to do with Lee. We have no place for V-mart and trading for him would be dumb. We have our RBI leader(Loney) at 1st, Martin behind the plate and no DH.

I know the Jays are still in it, but I dont see them being able to stay there for much longer. Halladay wont be moved, but there is almost no way for the Jays to stay where they are. The Rays are having trouble competing with the Yanks and Sox, let alone the Jays...

yo yankeeclippercraigmarilyn

another reason i make fun of your tag is that it makes you such an easy target

the other reason is that you won't admit that it is what makes you so defensive
and i don't mean in a james loney/doug meintkiewicz kind of way

exactly what i said is that the dodgers are in a position to acquire Victor Martinez but they DON'T NEED a v-mart, they need a Halladay.

"Not saying he can be Koufax BUT he can certainly be Johan."

haha, come on man. Kershaw has been fairly impressive, but he's a loooooooooong way from Johan in his prime. Its more than a bit soon to start throwing out comparisons like that.

Kershaw is a very rough work in progress. To call him anything other than that at this point is ludicrous.

Posted by: A | July 02, 2009 at 10:40 AM

Lol. I don't know what team you support but with this stupid statement I would believe you are a Giants fan.

Idk if you've noticed, because you're too busy just making wrong assumptions, but Kershaw has allowed 1 run in his last 4 starts, and has a 2.29 ERA since may 6th.

Sure, he does have a problem with walking people. A big problem. Have you also noticed though that he has the best OPBA in all of baseball? .207 opponent batting average. The dude just doesn't allow many hits. I dont know about you, but I'll take the guy who gives up more walks than gives up more hits, even if it costs him a pitch or two more per batter.

Work in progress? I think that would be Phil Hughes.

"Elbert will be called up to AAA soon, and is absolutly a stud. He is a lefty with 3 good pitchs. He could be a pen arm now, and start ethier this yr or next."

He is already in AAA, and has started twice...

Posted by: Baseballfan23 | July 02, 2009 at 11:23 AM

Got rocked bad in one of them from what I heard. But I would account that to the change in scenery. From what I've seen of Elbert he is a good power arm, and can strike out a ton of people, he just struggles with walks (like Kershaw and Billingsley, 1 and 2 in baseball in walks, yet both having really good seasons), and seems to allow some big hits off oh him.

I'd like to see Elbert stay in AAA for the rest of the minor league season, then brought up as a reliever in september (if he isn't traded that is). Then next season, if he seems ready enough, lets give him and Mcdonald a shot at the rotation, maybe for just the 5th spot.

Also, has anyone heard how good Jason Schmidt has been doing? (knocks on wood) It may be possible to have Schmidt be one of the guys (Stults, though he was just sent to AAA from the DL, Milton, Weaver) in our 5th starter role.

"Have you also noticed though that he has the best OPBA in all of baseball? .207 opponent batting average."

This isnt even true.

"The dude just doesn't allow many hits. I dont know about you, but I'll take the guy who gives up more walks than gives up more hits, even if it costs him a pitch or two more per batter."

And you do realize that it is rather hard to get a hit off someone when they have little control and are doing their best to walk you, dont you? He has allowed 1.30 base runners per IP. National League Average for starters is 1.36, with the league leader sitting at 0.81.

I'm with you on that, people need to stop putting the pressure on Kershaw by saying he is the next this or that. He is who he is, Clayton Kershaw. The dude has massive potential, and he's been really impressive this season, especially since April, where he was rocked senseless.

Posted by: Ivdown | July 02, 2009 at 11:43 AM

Kershaw has a 3.49 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP despite his high walk rate. That's because his BAA is .207, which according to Yahoo's stats is 3rd among qualified SPs only behind Haren and Gallardo.

Also, consider that Kershaw's K/9 inn. rate is 9.03, which is 11th among qualified SPs.

Any way you slice it, for a 21 year old, he's probably one of the most impressive ones to pitch in MLB in a long time.

Probably the only other SP under 25 that profiles better than Kershaw is Gallardo, who is 23.

My point is, Kershaw is definitely on the rise and he's getting better every day.

Right now, statistically, he's a Top 25 pitcher.

Bottom line, his control is still improving but his stuff is FILTHY and he misses A LOT of bats. Being that he's only 21, there is NO WAY I would trade him for a 30 year old whose had 1.5 very good years but who was not nearly as good prior to that.

Lee is worth some good prospects, but definitely not Kershaw. Period.

Got rocked bad in one of them from what I heard. But I would account that to the change in scenery. From what I've seen of Elbert he is a good power arm, and can strike out a ton of people, he just struggles with walks (like Kershaw and Billingsley, 1 and 2 in baseball in walks, yet both having really good seasons), and seems to allow some big hits off oh him.

I'd like to see Elbert stay in AAA for the rest of the minor league season, then brought up as a reliever in september (if he isn't traded that is). Then next season, if he seems ready enough, lets give him and Mcdonald a shot at the rotation, maybe for just the 5th spot.

Also, has anyone heard how good Jason Schmidt has been doing? (knocks on wood) It may be possible to have Schmidt be one of the guys (Stults, though he was just sent to AAA from the DL, Milton, Weaver) in our 5th starter role.

Posted by: Ivdown | July 02, 2009 at 11:41 AM

Ivdown, the most important quality I look for in a SP is his stuff and his ability to miss bats.

While some pitchers can be succesful "pitching to contact", the reality is that for a SP to be above average or elite, he needs to be able to get strikeouts and/or induce a lot of weak contact from hitters because its hard to have picture perfect contact for 6 or more innings and, eventually, pitchers make mistakes and if the "stuff" is mediocre, then the pitch will get hammered.

Elbert and McDonald both have quality stuff with multiple pitchers that qualify as "plus" pitches.

Elbert is going to still get knocked around here and there as he continues to refine his command but as he improves his control, he will gain consistency in quality starts. Obviously, his shoulder surgery delayed his progress.

Yeah, I listened to Schmidt's last game and although his line wasn't that impressive (6 IP, 4 ER, 7 hits, 5 K's), he was a little bit of a victim of a couple bloop hits.

But supposedly his stuff has looked good (87-91 mph on the fastball) so if he can show that consistently for a few more starts, he may get a shot at the 5th spot.

If Schmidt can throw in the low 90's with his fastball, he could end up a very good 5th starter for the stretch run.

But I am not ready to go there just yet.

Die-Hard Dodger Fan, I know what you mean about the ability to miss bats. I remember reading something at the start of last season on how Roy Oswalt wanted to become more of a contact pitcher rather than a strikeout pitcher. Since that time, Roy O hasn't been the same pitcher. He is the kind of guy who can strike out 210 a year, but it seems he would rather get about 160 ks and get more groundballs.

I can see where he is coming from, but the lack of success makes me wonder if he is still trying his groundball approach or if he was abandoned it for his old ways, and just can't really find a groove.

Ill take Javy Vazquez over Derek Lowe any day. Man, maybe I should have said Aaron Cook, because I love Lowe, haha. I wish we had resigned him. If we did, our staff would be even better and we wouldn't have to worry about our 5th spot. Oh well though.

You are mocking me because I called you out for stretching the truth and/or making things up? Interesting.

Also, not that it matters much, but you still missed Carpenter at .190, and Volquez at .191

Then, just because it is ever so beautiful

“So you would hold it against Kershaw that people can't hit him? A hit can be anything: A single, double, tripple, or homerun. A walk can only be that, a walk. And yes, he does allow over a runner on base per inning, but because he doesn't allow many hits, those runners don't score enough to hurt him.”

Let me get this straight, you are happy your pitcher struggles finding the plate?

But it is long ago proven that OBP, not BA, is indicative of the amount of runs you can expect to score. The National League Average OBP against starters is .329. Kershaw has a .323. Now, his ERA isnt higher mainly because of the lower SLG. Unfortunately, this is greatly affected by the league, park and division he plays in. Making it even more questionable, the teams he has excelled against. (Padres three times for instance). Put him in the American League and he stands a chance of being back in the Minors with those perps.

Then, I saw somewhere up there when someone said something about him being a top 25 pitcher in the game or whatever. Well, try 43 – that is what his value has been.

Then, to this whole “contact” thing that has become the new focus of your lovefest. The mention of Oswalt and his failing because of contact rate is an interesting one. Here

Oswalt 50.0% Swing Percentage, 80.9% Contact rate, 84.2% CR in Strike Zone
Kershaw 43.3% Swing Percentage, 79.3% Contact rate, 84.2% CR in Strike Zone

So much for that. The only real difference is hitters don’t swing against Kershaw, knowing he will walk them if they don’t.

But anyway, I don’t care much either way. I don’t think low of Kershaw, and I am not commenting on if he should be traded. The illogical Dodgers Bias was just getting way out of control in here so I figured I would point out some of the blatant falsities and exaggerations. You will probably attack me for saying something that isnt sugar-coated, but that wont matter because I am not coming back to this post. As far as I am concerned, you all can go back to your homerism now if you like.

dispute*

Ok, although I said I wasn’t going to come back, I did because I noticed something when I went to close the Kershaw stat page. It is something that confirms my feeling he would be in the minors if he was pitching in the AL. Here

.074/.123/.093/.215 (65 PA) line against Pitchers
.254/.352/.390/.743 (772 PS) against non-pitchers

Compare
.254/.352/.390/.743 (772 PS) against non-pitchers
268/.332/.429/.762 American League Average line against

At best, he is pretty much AL Average when he doesn’t get to face pitchers. His extreme walk rate coupled with the fact he wouldn’t be feasting on offensives like San Diego, San Francisco and Washinton points to someone we could easily see in AAA trying to find control. It is compounded by the .305/.642/.552/1.194 line against him when he gets to 3 balls – when he has to throw over the plate, hitters seem to lick their chops.

Doesn’t mean he is/will be a bad pitcher, but he isnt even close to what you are trying to make him out to be.

A walk is better to give up than a hit, and there is really nothing that can despute that.

Posted by: Ivdown | July 02, 2009 at 02:27 PM

Not if you've already walked 3 in the inning...

Don't worry SuzysMan, if we get to the World Series, our lineup will be much HARDER to face than the "Average AL Lineup":

SS Furcal
2B Hudson
RF Ethier
DH Manny
1B Loney
3B Blake
CF Kemp
C Martin
LF Pierre

So whoever Kershaw is facing will be toast anyways.

"Probably the only other SP under 25 that profiles better than Kershaw is Gallardo, who is 23."

Matt Cain is 24.

I wouldnt trade kershaw for Cain, Johnson, Haren, Gallardo, or even Greinke. The only one I would definitely trade him for would be Lincecum...

Im sorry, but Im not convinced Cain is anything more than a good #3 or a #2...

"Die-Hard Dodger Fan is exactly right, and I love the name, haha. Kershaw, at this point, is untouchable for any pitcher in baseball."

So ridiculous. Haren. Lincecum. Greinke. Jackson. Gallardo. Johnson. Cain......

Just stop, your crazy bias makes you sound stupid.

Posted by: thegiantswinthepennant | July 02, 2009 at 07:54 PM

Sounds like you are the stupid one. Do you even know a thing about Kershaw? The dude is 21 years old. He has massive potential, and is already performing very well in the major leagues. As he gets older he will get better, meaning less walks. Less walks with his ability to get batters out=scary.

No, I wouldnt trade him for anyone because he is already doing so good at 21 YEARS OLD! He has so much room to grow. Why would anyone in their right mind say they would give him up for someone much older (even 5 years or so) and much more expensive?

That, my friend (yeah right), is idiotic. Btw, bringing Cain into that is laughable. The guy was the equivalent of Kuroda last season, and is by far having a career year this year, which he will have a hard time topping in the future.

Also, B3NG4L, you may be willing to trade your young stud starting pitcher, but I'm not. I have too many nightmare's about Pedro Martinez for Delino Desheilds, and now Edwin Jackson for Dennys Baez and Lance Carter (seriously, WTT?).

"The dude is 21 years old. He has massive potential"

Yea potential. But if you had the chance to cash that in for a proven young stud pitcher you would HAVE to take it. You really think Kershaw is the most valuable pitching commodity in the game today? Tahts totally ridiculous. Nobody other than an ignorant Dodger fan would agree with you on that.

"Btw, bringing Cain into that is laughable. The guy was the equivalent of Kuroda last season, and is by far having a career year this year, which he will have a hard time topping in the future."

Flashing your ignorance once again. Cain is very much the same pitcher he has been for the last several years. He's had a bit better defense played behind him, shown a little more control and gotten a ton more run support. The run support and the resulting wins are why everyone is so quick to say he's having a "career year." Most intelligent baseball fans have seen this kind of year coming from Cain for a long, long time and nothing in his history suggests we shouldn't expect more of the same in the future.

i wonder how big of a penis kershaw has