Olney On The Market For Billy Wagner

The Braves better not go after Wagner, they already have an old, overpriced pitcher on the team.

Since Wagner would be Type A wouldnt any team to sign him forfeit 2 draft picks (1st round, and 1st supplemental round)? Assuming the sox offer arb, which i hope they do since i dont think he'll accept unless paps is out of the picture. I like the idea of using papelbon as a piece in a deal for a cheap young bat and letting wagner close 1 year until bard is ready.

Yeah, I read that to. He really let them off the hook because unless they are going to move Papelbon I cant see them paying $8MM+ to a 40+ year old reliever who isnt going to be closing.

if billy wags can stay healthy for the rest of the year and prove to be healthy in the off-season, i say keep him, have bard set-up and occassionally close ala ryan madson, and trade Papelshmir to whomever offers up the best deal for that douchebag malcontent

"Since Wagner would be Type A wouldnt any team to sign him forfeit 2 draft picks (1st round, and 1st supplemental round)?"

Well they just forfeit a first round pick, the supplemental pick is a provision of the draft. Of course, Wagner would be more attractive to a team who had a record in the bottom half of the standings... their first round pick would be protected, they would give up a second round pick which frankly for the price we paid for Wagner, I'd be fine with.

Though I wouldn't count out Papelbon being traded... I doubt the Sox would publicly make it known they're shopping Paps, but I also wouldn't doubt they'd put him on the table as a potential deal with the Mariners and a third party for King Felix. Something like Mariners get 2 prospects from the Sox and 3 from a 3rd party, third party gets Paps, Sox get Felix... just a thought.

"because Wagner's type A status would make him end up like another Cruz."

In the end though Cruz DID sign and the Royals forfeited a second round pick. And worse case scenario, sign and trade could be agreed upon.

thanks peterman...with that knowledge i think he was smart by making them decline the option but allowing them to offer arb....if they do offer then he can accept it and force their hand with paps...if they dont offer it then he will be a much more attractive free agent option since teams wouldnt have to forfeit draft picks.

SWP, Cruz did get a contract, but probably a below market deal considering he had come off his best season.

Also, the Royals are one of the dumbest teams in baseball when it comes to FA signings.

The Red Sox aren't trading Papelbon. When is the last time they traded an all-star who was producing and wasn't demanding out? It doesn't happen. Nomar and Manny are the only all-stars who were traded, and they both were jerks with serious issues (in addition to the 'roids) who faked injuries and threatened to not play unless they were traded.

Papelbon is the closer. Period. If he gets hurt, Bard will get an opportunity to show that he can be a closer. But that's Papelbon's job, and he isn't giving it up. If the Wagner situation shows us anything, it's that Papelbon doesn't want anyone even thinking about taking his job.

The Sox will trade Matsuzaka this summer. They may even trade Big Papi. But they'll keep Papelbon.

Why not let Jonathan Papelbon start next year? Yeah I ,know he's almost 30 and all but with all the arms in the BoSox system, alot of those guys project to be middle relief type, he has that Josh Beckett type stuff and IMO he'd have success at it. Have Wagner or Bard close.

Wagner strikes out an average of 11.5 per 9 innings and Papelbon is right below that with 10.5 per 9. Both sit at blowing 1 in 10 save opportunities.

Lastly a snap shot as Papelbon starting the entire season and a long postseason run, 284 IP, 330 Ks, .200 average and he averages giving up one homer every 13.5 innings. Those stats are Paps as a closer, imagine those as a starter, nasty.

"Lastly a snap shot as Papelbon starting the entire season and a long postseason run, 284 IP, 330 Ks, .200 average and he averages giving up one homer every 13.5 innings. Those stats are Paps as a closer, imagine those as a starter, nasty."

Papelbon wouldn't come close to those numbers as a starter. Not only will his stuff play down with a larger workload, but he'd have some major issues considering how dependent he is on one pitch, his fastball, to get guys out. He's a very good closer, and he could probably be a good starter, but I wouldn't expect Boston to try to find out.

He's just become so dependent on his fastball that I'm not sure that he has the offspeed stuff to be much more than a decent third starter, although obviously that'd still be more valuable than his closing work.

"Papelbon could demand more money as a SP"

Only if he is good, and there isnt anything to say he really would be. He doesnt have strong secondary stuff at all, and relying solely on a fastball wont get you far at all in the major leagues as a starter. As a short reliever you can hide you limitations. As a starter they just get exposed.

Look at Joba. He isnt a dominating SP despite having two plus pitches at his disposal. It will still take time for Chamberlain to be the starter people want him to be, if he ever does. And he has more pure stuff then Papelbon to begin with.

"Only if he is good, and there isnt anything to say he really would be. He doesnt have strong secondary stuff at all, and relying solely on a fastball wont get you far at all in the major leagues as a starter. As a short reliever you can hide you limitations. As a starter they just get exposed.

Look at Joba. He isnt a dominating SP despite having two plus pitches at his disposal. It will still take time for Chamberlain to be the starter people want him to be, if he ever does. And he has more pure stuff then Papelbon to begin with."

Yeah, basically this.

"2. Papelbon would be a quality #3 starter, but he has chronic shoulder issues/concerns and is better served keeping his pitch count down."

That is your assumption based off:

"3. Papelbon's fastball is just as fast as Joba's (see fangraph data) and it has better movement and is located better. His second pitch (splitter, which he's throwing less in the regular season to save his shoulder) is better than Joba's second pitch (his slider). Both of their third pitches show potential- Joba's curve and Paps' slider. "

which isnt really true.

Joba was averaging 97 MPH on his FB as a reliever, Papelbon is in the 94.5 range with his. And Papelbon has never, ever, had ML success with the Slider, so not sure where you are getting that second part. In fact, over his entire career, Papelbon has not had real positive return on a single pitch other then his FB despite trying 6! Then, remember, his FB will not be nearly as effective as a starter anyway as he will need to conserve himself.

I dont root for either team, and am completely without bias in the discussion. If anything, I tend to go against the Yankees in discussions. But Joba has much better pure stuff, and has much more stuff he can rely on to take stress off the FB. Papelbon is straight FB with nothing to support it at all. You can assume a 2-3 MPH drop in the FB when stretched out for 6 innings, and his inability to use anything effectively as a secondary means he would be relying on a lesser FB. That isnt a recipe for success, and if speaking 100% openly, he would really stand a good chance of getting pounded out of the rotation.

“Guys throw their fastball 60-70% of the time.”

And Papelbon is at 80%.

“His natural delivery puts more stress on his shoulder and yields more movements.”

Fangraph actually says Joba has more Vertical Movement on his FB. Pabelbon does have more Horizontal movement though. And a delivery you cant use consistently is purely a delivery you cant use consistently. But throwing more sure isnt going to put less stress on an shoulder.

“Regardless, he has much much more command of his fastball up/down and inside/outside than Joba does”

2 parts to this one
1 – Joba didn’t have the control problems when he was in the bullpen either. Just like Papelbon walked 10 in his 16 innings over 3 ML starts but instantly eliminated that problem when going to the bullpen.
2 - Remove 3 (or possibly more) MPH off that FB without having a solid secondary offering to set it up with and it doesn’t really matter how much command it has; the hitters are knocking it all over the park

“Papelbon can still throw 97”

But he cant average 97

Bottom line is Joba has an arsenal of 4 pitches, 3 of which he has shown positive results on. Papelbon has one pitch he has shown positive results on, and it’s the one that would suffer the most with the extended workload. Papelbon, a one pitch pitcher, isnt a safe bet for the rotation at all. The fact he has injury concerns just makes it impossible anyway. Joba on the other hand is succeeding, just not reaching the level people hope he eventually gets to.

Believe what you want. But in my book Papelbon is a better pitcher, with better stuff, than Joba. And he has a better chance of returning to full health than Joba has of maturing.

Anyhow, believe what you want, I've got better things to do than to discuss this any further...

Peace,

""Since Wagner would be Type A wouldnt any team to sign him forfeit 2 draft picks (1st round, and 1st supplemental round)?"

1) Teams don't forfeit two draft picks, they forfiet one.

2) Any team losing another Type A free agent closer can actually sign Wagner and GAIN a supplemental pick in the process.

3) First round draft picks are not always as desirable as you seem to think. This isn't the NBA or NFL. To some of the more financially strapped teams, having multiple first round picks can mean commiting millions of dollars to multiple players, each of whom has a statistical 30% chance of never playing one single inning in MLB.