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Offseason Outlook: Florida Marlins

Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Marlins.  Their likely commitments for 2010:

C - John Baker - $400K
C - Ronny Paulino - $440K+
1B - Jorge Cantu - $3.5MM+
2B - Dan Uggla - $5.35MM+
SS - Hanley Ramirez - $7MM
3B - Emilio Bonifacio - $400K
IF/OF - Alfredo Amezaga - $1.3MM+
1B/3B - Wes Helms - $950K
LF - Chris Coghlan - $400K
CF - Cody Ross - $2.225MM+
RF - Brett Carroll - $400K
OF - Cameron Maybin - $400K
? -

SP - Ricky Nolasco - $2.4MM+
SP - Josh Johnson - $1.4MM+
SP - Chris Volstad - $400K
SP - Sean West - $400K
SP - Andrew Miller - $1.575MM

Other candidates: Rick VandenHurk - $400K

RP - Leo Nunez - $415K+
RP - Matt Lindstrom - $410K+
RP - Brian Sanches - $400K
RP - Renyel Pinto - $404K+
RP - Burke Badenhop - $400K
RP - Dan Meyer - $400K
RP - Carlos Martinez - $400K

Non-tender candidates: Jeremy Hermida, Renyel Pinto, Alfredo Amezaga

Assuming Hermida is non-tendered, the Marlins will have about $32MM committed before arbitration raises to Paulino, Cantu, Uggla, Amezaga, Ross, Nolasco, Johnson, Nunez, Lindstrom, and Pinto.  The huge arbitration group should put the Fish around $45MM, even if Pinto and Amezaga are also non-tendered.  According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, the Marlins entered 2009 with a $36.8MM payroll.

Presumably the non-tender candidates will be shopped, and it would not be surprising to see many of the other arb-eligible players available on the trade market.  Cantu and Uggla seem particularly likely to be traded, while the Marlins hope to sign Johnson to an extension.

In a recent mailbag for MLB.com, Joe Frisaro answered a question about a possible Uggla-Javier Vazquez swap.  Uggla fits the Braves' need for right-handed power, though the team's first base and left field vacancies don't match up.  Plus, the Braves and Marlins are in direct competition.  The Tigers, Twins, Nationals, Diamondbacks, and Dodgers might need help at second base, while Uggla could theoretically play third base for the Orioles, Twins, Angels, A's, Mariners, Astros, or Cardinals.  Of course, trading Uggla would leave the Marlins weak at second or third base themselves.

Cantu has much less trade value than Uggla.  Ross fits somewhere in-between, given the weak market for center fielders.  It'd make sense for the Marlins to seek young pitching in any deal, though I expect them to improve on this year's 4.57 rotation ERA regardless of any acquisitions.  Gaby Sanchez can step in at first base for Cantu after hitting .289/.374/.475 at Triple A.  Also, Logan Morrison logged a .411 OBP as a 21-year-old at Double A.

The Marlins deserve praise for last year's bullpen-building - Nunez was acquired for Mike Jacobs, while Kiko Calero, Brendan Donnelly, and Sanches were signed to minor league deals.  With Calero and Donnelly likely headed for greener pastures, Lindstrom a question mark, and Pinto getting pricey, look for the Marlins to repeat the process. 

Same old story for the Marlins for 2010 - they'll probably find a way to compete on a shoestring budget.  The light at the end of the tunnel: the new stadium opens in 2012.


Comments

What did they do with Ross Gload?

I think Cristhian Martinez would make the team before Carlos Martinez would.

Gload has a club option for 2.6 million bucks for 2010.

The Marlins don't really need Dan Uggla considering they can slot Chris Coghlan at 2B and go with Ross/Maybin/??? in the outfield. Would be a shame to see them have to trade Josh Johnson however.

Dump Uggla, Cantu, and Ross then bring up some kids...I mean, hasn't that been The Marlins' management philosophy since the franchised came into the league?

I think that the Marlins should probably move Uggla and either Hermida or Ross, primarily. If someone is wililng to give up some quality talent for Cantu, ship him out as well.

Otherwise, I would expect the lineup to be Baker, Sanchez, Coghlan, Cantu and Ramirez in the infield, with Maybin, Hermida/Ross, Brett Carroll and John Raynor dominating the time in the outfield.

One option could be to have Gaby Sanchez play third base and bring up Morrison to take over at first, considering that Cantu is below-average at third base on his own anyways.

The Marlins could be really good next year if Volstad and Miller emerge in the rotation, because Johnson/Nolasco is quietly one of the very best 1-2 punches in the game, and they have one of the three best players in the game in Hanley Ramirez (I put him in a jumbled Top 3 in Utley and Pujols).

angryredmena the Marlins don't dump player and if you think so you should follow them more to learn. I am a Marlins fan and i got to arround 70 games a year. When you see the box score with 11,000 in attendance there are about a 1000 or 2000 n the ballpark. Most of the time the fans get in for free because of rain delays and different organizations giving tickets out. How do you think they can pay high salaries when they don't even receive money from the food sold at the park.

You totally forgot Anibal Sanchez and who has no options left and is elegible for arbitration. Also they must decide on Taylor Tankersley

In my opinion they should get rid of Hermida, Pinto, Lindstrom, and Anibal Sanchez.. maybe even Cantu and Uggla if they can get some great players in return

TIM Wood is a virtual lock for the bullpen as a he performed well in the Bigs, sits at 94-96 with a plus 88mph Slider.. He would have been up in April had he not suffered an oblique strain at AAA.... He will get a spot long before Cristhian Martinez or Carlos Martinez would.

Ok, we know the Dodgers arent trading guys like Martin, Kershaw, Billz, Broxton, or Kemp/Ethier. What would it take to get Uggla? Or Uggla and Johnson. Im curious what guys who see them play everyday or guys that are honest posters think. Thanks

@lakersdodgersyankees4life

For Uggla, it would probably take a Blake DeWitt, Scott Elbert, + High C/Low B prospect

For Uggla + Johnson, it would probably take the aforementioned and Xavier Paul, Chin-Lung Hu, Tony Delmonico, James McDonald, and Travis Schlichting in addition.

If you want to throw Hanley in there, just for kicks and giggles, it would probably take the aforementioned and Clayton Kershaw, Russell Martin, A.J. Ellis, and Ronald Belisario.


www.gofish128.mlblogs.com

Would Wren really trade Vazquez for Uggla straight up? I seriously doubt it. They need more for a guy who just had one of the 5 best years in the National League whose under control for a solid 11.5 million in 2010.

You're not getting Johnson without moving one of those untouchable guys. Johnson is like King Felix or Greinke: a young near-ace pitcher who's under team control for a while. The Fish value him very highly--enough that they're willing to sign him long-term. And the Fish NEVER sign pitchers long-term. Ethier or a package of top prospects would do it. Ethier b/c the Fish have a severe need at OF (and Ethier is similarly under control for a while) and Kemp would be too pricey, or prospects b/c they're the Marlins and they love prospects.

Uggla's a "middle prospect" guy. He's getting old but he's under team control for 2 years. He also provides power at an underpowered position and his D improved to slightly below average last season. LA won't have to give up a top prospect for him, but a bunch of low A long-shots won't do it either. Considering the market for power, though, I feel some team might overpay the Fish for Uggla (ala Giants overpaying for Sanchez this season).

I still think the Cards make a move for Uggla (in response to losing Holliday), but the Dodgers could be a great trade partner.

"For Uggla + Johnson, it would probably take the aforementioned and Xavier Paul, Chin-Lung Hu, Tony Delmonico, James McDonald, and Travis Schlichting in addition."

Sign me up now! That is really light, IMO. The Marlins would never do that.

But I really do not want Uggla taking groundballs at Second for us.

The Uggla package sounds right and I think something could be worked out.

The Uggla/Johnson package is too light for you guys, IMO. My guess is it would be all those guys, taking out Schlichting(he's a lefty... and thats it) and replace him with a couple people like Withrow and Lindblom. Withrow has a Billingsley type potential and Lindblom could be a closer next year. A package of:

DeWitt, Elbert, B/C prospect, Paul, Hu, Delmonico, McDonald, Withrow, Lindblom? That seems pretty stong. There is a 2B/3B for right now(DeWitt)

A lefty who was VERY highly rated but got hurt. Still could be a very good pitcher. He has gotten his FB back and needs to refind his command, and he'll be really good(Elbert)

A guy who will probably be a 4th OF, but a good one(Paul)

a SS who may have finally learned to hit advanced pitching and is a defensive wize. Could play 2B to keep Couglan in the OF(Hu)

A guy who was switched to catcher and has been able to hit, but needs to become a better game caller(Delmonico)

A guy who was great in relief last year and should be a starter this year. #3 potential(McDonald)

and the 2 guys I explained above.

And thanks for a real responce, not a 'Kemp, Kershaw, Ethier' for Uggla type post.

Regarding the Fish wanting Ethier, he is already in yr 2 of arb, and will go 2 more times(he was a super two). seems too expensive for the Fish and is already a really good hitter for power and doubles. I doubt we trade him...

I'm laughing at anything including Blake Dewitt in a deal for Uggla. Why do the Marlins need that, and would place any value on him? And saying the Marlins should keep Coghlan in the OF trying to rationalize sending us an inferior middle infield prospect.... I mean, really horrible and totally homer-centric there and not understanding the Marlins. The Marlins aren't struggling - they won 87 games starting Bonifacio for 500 PA and having a total rotation meltdown besides JJ. No one of the team overachieved except for probably Coghlan and 20-30 AVG points and subsequent OBP/SLUG bumps. They are looking to improve. They can do this while trading Uggla, but they aren't taking an assortment of "meh" prospects that could help in 3 years. And there is a 100% chance the Marlins sign Josh Johnson to a 4-5 year contract. Our starters are not going to be traded. Maybe like Anibal or Miller, but not JJ, Nolasco, Volstad, and West.

Your top pitching prospect in the minors in AA/AAA that can help Summer 2010 minimum, and then a decent secondary piece of some sorts. That's what Dan Uggla is worth to the Marlins. And that's what the Marlins are going to get from someone. If I'm the Marlins, anything not including McDonald I am not taking. Unless Crazy Coletti wants to clear house and do Lindbolm, Elbert, and a power A ball reliever. It's that easy. If it's the Cubs, I need Cashner. If it's the Rays, I need Davis, maybe Hellickson, etc, etc, etc, for every team with a legitimate AA/AAA starter that can profile into at least a 3. This is what they are looking for, and eventually someone will cave just how Aldersen was traded for Freddy Sanchez.

I understand fans of other teams like to poke fun at the Marlins, but the front office is clearly top 5-7 in baseball. You aren't going to lowball them over a four year running .800+ opsing 2B, who may explode in a better hitter's park and lineup protection. Hermida and Cantu may be relatively worthless, but they will get theirs with Uggla. Near guaranteed.

--

Also because I see this tac'd at the end, the Marlins have no need for an OF like Ethier, or OF prospects with Maybin and Mike Stanton, decent secondary prospects like Bryan Petersen and Scott Cousins, potentially Morrison moving to LF, and potential stop gaps with Brett Carroll, John Raynor, Jai Miller, etc. Plus low cost veterans. The Marlins do not need an outfielder in any way, shape, or form. The Marlins need PITCHING and MORE PITCHING, and their upcoming trades of arbitration bats will focus near exclusive on this because the organization is littered with high potential bats at every position (Baker/Skipworth, Morrison/Sanchez, Coghlan/Smolinski, Hanley, Dominguez/Smolinski, and aforementioned 4+ outfielders).

marlinslou, I didnt think that they would aanything other than a lot of pitching and some other completmentary pieces. Thats why I put both Withrow and Lindblom...

Uggla, Johnson, and either John Baker for Matt Kemp, Russell Martin, James Loney, Chad Billingsley, and either James McDonald.

Ya, that may be asking for too much but I wouldn't give up JJ unless I was getting too much. He's too valuable to this team. It's not as if ace starters grow on trees.

The Dodgers do not have any young prospects that really catch my eye other than Clayton Kershaw and Andrew Lambo. I think the Dodgers would much rather hold to those two. They can replace Kemp with Juan Pierre in center who may not have the strongest arm, but he does have incredible range and can get to every ball. He would lead off ahead of Rafael Furcal giving L.A. a great 1-2 punch at the top of the line-up. Uggla would play 2nd and bat in the middle of the order. Baker would take over for Martin as the starting catcher unless they go out and sign somebody in free agency (like Bengie Molina). Baker is very underrated and had a much better season than Martin. As for first base, I can see L.A. Signing someone like Nick Johnson to replace Loney.

On the Marlins side, They get a stud OF in Matt Kemp who could play all 3 outfield positions including left field. That would allow Chris Coghlan to move to 2nd base which is his natural position. Martin becomes the everday catcher and would really help the Marlins pitching staff. He struggled at the plate this season but is still considered a top tier catcher. Loney becomes the starting 1st baseman where he provides great defense. He's not much of a power hitter, but he still manages to get on base and drive in runs. Billingsley takes over JJ's spot in the rotation and would likely be the No. 2 guy behind Ricky Nolasco. He too suffered a down year I think he could bounce back. And finally, James McDonald. He can start, but I think he's much better suited in the bullpen. Could end up as the closer. He's got nasty stuff.

For the Dodgers: For the Marlins:
1- Pierre, CF 1- Coghlan, 2B
2- Furcal, SS 2- Maybin, CF
3- Eithier, RF 3- H. Ramirez, SS
4- M. Ramirez, LF 4- Cantu, 3B
5- Uggla, 2B 5- Kemp, RF
6- N. Johnson, 1B 6- Ross, LF
7- Blake, 3B 7- Loney, 1B
8- Baker, C 8- Martin, C

J. Johnson, RHP Nolasco, RHP
Kershaw, LHP Billingsley, RHP
Ben Sheets, RHP Sanchez, RHP

Broxton, Closer McDonald, Closer
Sherrill, Set-up man Nuńez, Set-up man


Maybe I am being a Homer, but I like this deal for both teams. What do you guys think?

what a f**in one sided deal. Kemp is a top 3 CF in the game... at 24.

Billingsley is one of the best #2 games in the game. He has ace stuff, but his control has kept him at the #2 spot. He fixes that, he is an ace.

Martin is STILL one of the top 4 catchers in the NL, even with a bad offensive year. Bengie Molina as a Dodger? Please, stop.

Pierre starting? it isnt 2002.

And putting Kemp in LF is a sin....

Oh, and Kershaw isnt a prospect anymore.

And sorry to sound like an ass, but that just REALLY pissed me off...

fishrock, that post should explain why i thanked you for a normal post...

Fish should trade Uggla, and Cantu.
Put Ross in left, stick Maybin in center.
Coghlan can play 2nd.
Re-sign J.J long-term.
See if you can get a young power arm in return for Uggla.

Well atleast you admit that you're an ass. I clearly stated about 3 times that I was being a Homer on that one.

I know Kershaw is not techniquely a prospect but he's still on 21. He's only going to get better.

Martin is no longer a top 4 catcher. Maybe defensively, yes. But offensively, he hasn't been a top for offensive catcher in 2 seasons. Look up the stats if you disagree. And I understand that Kemp is a great CF. Sometimes you need to give up some to get some. What do you honestly think? We're just going to hand you JJ and Uggla for free? None of your prospects outside of Andrew Lambo are all that good! You tell me, as a Dodger fan, what would you give up for JJ and Uggla. A top 2 second baseman in the NL (Top 5 in all of baseball) and Josh Johnson, an Elite Ace starter who's in his prime and will only get better. We're not giving him up for free so you tell me, what are you willing to give up?

My god!
I just saw why lakerdodgersyankees was sooo pissed off. That was a horrible trade proposal.

Kemp alone could net J.J and Baker. It just doesn't make sense to trade one of the best young hitters in the game, A young TOR starter coming off a so-so year, and an upside heavy catcher and A young 1B with huge RBI capabilities for J.J (Don't get me wrong, an excellent talent), a 29 YO 2B with 3B written all over him, and a young catcher who really doesn't swing this trade at all.

Omg! You guys are nuts! Kemp for JJ and Baker???? Are you serious? That's way worse than my proposal!

ok first off,all these trades are absurd.

There is 0.00000001% chance JJ is traded.I agree 100% with what marlinslou said.Uggla,Hermida,and maybe Cantu are going to be traded for pitching.It is useless to mention Kemp in trade discussions when the fish have Maybin.A trade centered around Uggla for Billingsley would make some sense.Billingsley's stock is way down,he couldnt even crack the dodgers postseason rotation.

That trade is in NO WAY one-sided! JJ is the unquestionable best player in that trade with Uggla being the 3rd best (Kemp is 2nd). It's a 3 for 5 deal! That's outstanding considering you can get 4 or 5 players alone for Josh Johnson! You guys are on cloud 9 if you think you can get JJ on the cheap. You'll never win a title with what you got now. Atleast with an ace like JJ, you'd have a better shot.

The Marlins players will never get the respect they deserve cause of where they play. And it's sad.

Let's say the fish trade Hermida, Uggla and Cantu.
Coghlan moves to 2nd, Maybin to center and Ross to right.
Who plays left?
Who play's 3rd?
Who is slated to take over 1st if they don't retain Johnson?

Um, I wouldnt say 'unquestionable' the best player in the trade. You havent seen Kemp play much, have you? He learned CF 2YEARS AGO and is already a top 3 CF. And Uggla as a top 5 2B in the game? I dont think so...

Regarding Martin, whos better in the NL? I got Y. Molina, McCann, and then Martin. I dont like Fangraph's value system, but even then, Martin was 7th in the majors, 3rd in the NL. And that includes VMart, who I feel is more of a DH/1B and AJ Pierzynski, who Im honestly suprissed hes on there... Even with a bad year, he still has a lot of value.

And why the hell do we trade a starter(Billingsley) for a postition player? The point is to upgrade our rotation first, then 2b. Taking out Billz kills what we were trying to do. And there are many reasons why Billz had a bad 2nd half. Broken leg, overuse by Torre in the 2st half, pitching in the ASG.(it sounds weird, but many pitchers and players prefer to have that 5 days of rest in the middle of the season, not be pitching to Joe Mauer...)

And No one is saying that JJ should go on the cheap. But to say that 4 guys, 2 of them former all stars, and Kemp should have been one, and a 1B that has hit over 330 in the postseason in his career and is a lock for 90RBIs for a good pitcher/ace, a 2B who gives power, but strikes out too much and his defense is... questionable, and a crappy catcher is insane. Just insane.

Like I said before, there is no reason to put our established players in trade proposals, when management has consistenly NOT traded these guys.

And I have no idea what it would take to get JJ and Uggla. I thought that the deal I said, DeWitt, Elbert, B/C prospect, Paul, Hu, Delmonico, McDonald, Withrow, Lindblom, is a good starting point, at least.

And finally, saying that all our prospects 'suck' is just a dumb statement.

Fine, I'll be more realistic. Besides, I think I'd puke if I saw JJ in Dodgers colors anyways.

JJ isn't going anywhere. If he does, a team would have to over pay like I said before.

I'll turn my attention to the Anaheim Angels (Yes, Anaheim. The whole L.A. Of A is a flipping joke! Seriously!)

Uggla and Renyel Pinto for Howie Kendrick, Brandon Wood, and Jose Arredondo? What do you guys think?

I don't think anyone is disrespecting the Marlins players. The truth is, there is no way we would actually keep Kemp/Martin/Loney due to the massive pay raises they will get. Besides, I think Baker was better then Martin this past year so I have no idea why we would trade for him. And with all of our OF prospects, Matt Kemp isn't necessarily needed. I am not saying we wouldn't take him, but his salary is going to probably top Hanley's.

And until we get a new stadium and hence a revenue/payroll increase, the only other long deal is going to JJ.

That trade is plainly never going to happen since

A) The Dodgers aren't going to part with Matt Kemp.
B) The Marlins aren't going to part with JJ until they absolutely would have to.
C) Marlins aren't going to afford any of those players.

"Let's say the fish trade Hermida, Uggla and Cantu.
Coghlan moves to 2nd, Maybin to center and Ross to right.
Who plays left?
Who play's 3rd?
Who is slated to take over 1st if they don't retain Johnson?"

That all depends on what the Fish would get in return for those players. If Cantu is traded, I would expect Gaby Sanchez to take over either 1st or 3rd. Ross as you said would play RF. Coghlan to 2nd. The rest would depend on what the Marlins would get in return....

Our farm system is stacked with hitting prospects, so we are going to have no trouble there. Especially in the OF. We easily have 5 guys that could be opening day LF. I seriously think we are retaining Cantu, so that hopefully won't be a problem since we just slide Gaby to 3rd and let Cantu stay at 1st. Cantu has horrendous D at 3rd.

hialeah, The Marlins don't dump players? Is this a case of don't believe my lying eyes because it surely look like they were dumping players after both of their world series wins.Maybe you are disagreeing with my wording, but seeing them trade away young talent after they win it all does give the impression that they are dumping players.

I wouldn't be shocked if we traded Uggla, Cantu, and Ross just so we can pick up more prospects towards 2012, and have more money to sign JJ.

- Uggla for Jair Jurrgens.
- Cantu to the Twins for 2 Prospects; Catcher Wilson Ramos and a mid-level prospect would be great, especially since Kyle Skipworth looks like a bust. Ramos is expendable for the twins because of their surplus of catching prospects, and oh ya! They have Joe Mauer. Enough said.
- Cody Ross to the Cubs for 2 prospects; RHP Andrew Cashner and a mid-level prospect.


2012 Line-up:
1- Chris Coghlan, 2B
2- Cameron Maybin, CF
3- Hanley Ramirez, SS
4- Michael Stanton, RF
5- Logan Morrison, 1B
6- Matt Dominguez, 3B
7- Wilson Ramos, C
8- Bryan Peterson, LF (Think Brent Gardener for the Yankees)

Starting Rotation:
Josh Johnson, RHP
Sean West, LHP
Chris Volatad, RHP
Jair Jurrgens, RHP
Chad James, LHP (Maybe, If he develops quickly)

Bullpen:
Jose Ceda, RHP (Closer)
Andrew Cashner, RHP (Set-up Man)
Ryan Tucker, RHP


What do you guys think?

-Uggla for Jair Jurrjens

You're kidding, right?

JPizzle, maybe you need to check up on players. Jiar has a better ERA than any of the Marlins pitchers. He would be your 2nd pitcher, not your fourth. Also, the Braves aren't that desperate or stupid for a right handed bad. If you want Jiar, prepare to give up your farm.

I have a question: How much is Dan Uggla really worth? I think Marlins fans (myself included) have to take a good long look at Ugly Dan.

1. He is a range impaired second basemen with decent hands and strong arm. Third base is a possibility.

2. He is a streaky hitter whose awful slumps and many strikeouts produce low batting averages. But his walk rate has increased every year in the bigs, and he has displayed tremendous power for a second basemen playing on a football field (which is what Landshark Stadium is, a football field).

3. He his hard-nosed, blue collar player under team control for two more seasons but in line for a big (read ~$7,500,000) payday.

So, we gotta ask ourselves: what team is willing to ponying up around $7,500,000 in arbitration, and part with significant prospects? Ugly Dan is 28. If he leaves Landshark, who sees him regressing, exploding, or staying the same?

I don't need to check up on anything. I know Jair Jurrgens has a 2.61 ERA. I say his name because two things. #1 this exact deal has been talked about on this site in the past. #2 the Marlins won't make a trade with a division foe unless they are getting what they want in return. It's either Jair or nothing. It's not a bad deal. For what it's worth, Jair had 10 losses. That's not good, regardless of the reason. Again, Uggla is being overlooked. He is the 2nd best 2B in the national league and a perrenial all star. 30+ homers in a terrible ballpark to hit in. Imagine what he'll do in a better park hitting behind McCann, and Chipper. And he's a much better defender than given credit. He's average defensively.

Yore acting as if Jair is a frontline starter. He's not. He's Ricky Nolasco. A solid #3 on a good team. He's not even your second best starter. He's the 3rd or 4th guy on the braves. Hudson, Hansen, Vasquez, then Jair.

- Uggla for Jair Jurrgens"

So you go from Kemp, Billz, Loney and Martin, plus prospects for Uggla and JJ to Uggla for a #1, possibly an ace? Your argument is the Fish wont trade w/in the divison unless they get Jair? haha. I bet if they offered Heyward, something would get done, no matter what your fish prospects are. And your second arugument? HE HAD 10 LOSSES? wow. If you feel that losses and the record shows how good a pitcher is, then, by that logic, Pedro Martinez had a season 5x better than Kershaw's. I mean, Kershaw had a .500 winning percentage, while Pedro had a .833, right? Jeez...

And Jair is a top of the rotation guy. Accept it. He is better than Hudson, by a mile, better than hanson right now, and is better than Vasquez, even after one of the best season's of his career.

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