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2010 MLB Free Agents Rumors
It's time for the fourth annual MLB Trade Rumors Top 50 Free Agents list! The entire list of available free agents can be found here.
A note before we begin – this is a complicated puzzle, and I'll be satisfied if I'm correct on a quarter of these guesses. If your favorite team seems under-represented, keep in mind that the list doesn't account for trades or every single free agent.
1. Matt Holliday – Mets. The Mets could grab headlines by signing Holliday to a six or seven-year deal for more than $100MM.
2. John Lackey – Yankees. Last winter's strategy of signing the best two starters and the best hitter available contributed to the Yankees' World Series title. With rotation question marks after C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett, it makes sense that the Yanks will pursue the best available starter in Lackey.
3. Jason Bay – Red Sox. It's been rumored the Red Sox are willing to offer four years and $60MM to Bay. That seems to be a fair opening bid, given his defensive struggles.
4. Chone Figgins – Angels. The Angels have internal options at third base, but he'd be hard to let go after a career-high .395 OBP and excellent defense at the hot corner.
5. Randy Wolf – Mets. The Mets regrettably chose Oliver Perez over Wolf a year ago. As the best available starter aside from Lackey, Wolf is primed to get a three-year deal worth more than $30MM.
6. Andy Pettitte – Yankees. With all the good vibes surrounding Pettitte's work this year, it's hard to see him anywhere else. The Yankees might have to guarantee more than $5.5MM this time though.
7. Jose Valverde – Phillies. One way to shore up a shaky bullpen: sign the best closer available. Few teams are seeking closers, and even fewer have money, so the Phillies should be able to get a relative bargain.
8. Marco Scutaro – Red Sox. It's difficult to place Scutaro, because not many teams with shortstop vacacies will be willing to pay the three years and $18MM+ he'll likely demand. The Sox would be getting the best available shortstop here, but they could instead choose Jed Lowrie and/or Alex Gonzalez.
9. Adrian Beltre – Twins. The Twins made a large upgrade at shortstop by acquiring J.J. Hardy. Beltre would give them fantastic left-side infield defense and another possible 20 home run bat. The Twins had interest in trading for Beltre a year ago, though the Scott Boras client added them to his no-trade clause.
10. Rich Harden – Red Sox. A one-year deal with a $7MM base salary would be difficult for Harden to resist. His injuries are maddening, but he leads free agent starters with a 10.9 K/9.
11. Mike Cameron – Padres. The Padres are tight on cash, but bringing back Cameron to play center field makes sense on a one-year deal worth $7MM or so.
12. Johnny Damon – Yankees. Most believe the Yankees will re-sign one of Damon and Hideki Matsui. Despite Matsui's World Series MVP award, Damon probably fits better given his ability to play the field more regularly.
13. Orlando Hudson – Nationals. The Nats coveted Hudson last year. Adding him now would help with their stated goal of improving up the middle.
14. Miguel Tejada – Athletics. A one-year deal to bring Tejada back would give the A's security on the left side of the infield, where they have Cliff Pennington at shortstop and Brett Wallace not quite ready at third base.
15. Joel Pineiro – Cardinals. He'd be a big loss for the Cardinals, who have rotation openings after Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, and Kyle Lohse. Pineiro walked just 27 in 214 innings posted a 60.5% groundball rate due to a newfound sinker.
16. Nick Johnson – Giants. A jolt of OBP at first base would do the Giants good. They were involved in talks for Johnson around the trade deadline.
17. Aroldis Chapman - Red Sox. They've been heavily involved with Chapman from the start, and may consider him a long-term investment worth more than $20MM.
18. Marlon Byrd – Rangers. Byrd is one of the better center fielders available, but not too many clubs are in the hunt at the position. The Cubs could be in the mix here after they trade Milton Bradley.
19. Vladimir Guerrero – White Sox. The White Sox would generate attention by signing Vlad as a DH and occasional right fielder. Landing Guerrero would also be a solid baseball move on a reasonable one-year deal.
20. Felipe Lopez – Dodgers. They seem ready to part ways with Orlando Hudson, and Lopez might be a bit cheaper. Lopez's 2009 season ranked fourth among all free agents in WAR.
21. Adam LaRoche – Braves. Did LaRoche's scorching stint with the Braves last year price him out of their range? The Mets, Orioles, A's, Mariners, Giants, D'Backs, and Rangers might also be in the market for a first baseman.
22. Rafael Soriano – Angels. Will the failure of Brian Fuentes prompt the Angels to add another late-inning arm? After missing most of '08, Soriano bounced back with 102 strikeouts in 75.6 innings this year.
23. Jon Garland, Dodgers. Bringing back Garland would be a safe move, though the Dodgers already declined his $10MM option. Garland required a $7.25MM guarantee a year ago, and he had a better season, so this is an iffy prediction. The Twins, Nationals, Mets, and Brewers may be among the other teams seeking an innings-eater.
24. Carl Pavano – Nationals. Pavano debuted with the Expos in '98 after being acquired in the Pedro Martinez deal. Eleven years later, Pavano surprisingly managed 33 starts. His 4.16 xFIP reveals his 5.10 ERA was misleading.
25. Brad Penny – Mets. Penny is just one of many different arms the Mets might consider as they attempt to bolster their rotation depth. No other free agent starter throws harder, so Penny's upside is still tantalizing.
26. Erik Bedard – Dodgers. If the Dodgers don't want to pony up the cash or prospects for a true ace, they could buy a Bedard lottery ticket instead.
27. Hideki Matsui – Mariners. Matsui joining the Mariners in a DH/left field role will become more likely if Ken Griffey Jr. retires.
28. Bengie Molina – Nationals. Molina is difficult to place, especially if he demands more than $5MM. With Jesus Flores coming off shoulder surgery, the Nats will probably add a veteran on a one-year deal. The Mets also may sign a catcher.
29. Mike Gonzalez – Braves. Gonzalez should be cheaper than Soriano, and the Braves need some kind of relief signing or acquisition. With available closers plentiful, the Braves could wait around until March in hopes of a bargain.
30. Jason Marquis – Diamondbacks. The D'Backs are known to crave a mid-tier veteran starter, and Marquis is one of many options. Many have speculated Marquis would like to play for the Mets, and they are a reasonable match as well.
31. Placido Polanco – Diamondbacks. Second base is another area of need for Arizona. As with the Marquis situation above, Polanco is one of several palatable free agent choices.
32. Tim Wakefield – Red Sox. Wakefield had back surgery in October, but the Red Sox will probably still view him as a bargain at $4MM.
33. Ben Sheets – Rangers. The Brewers and Rangers seem to be the most likely landing spots for Sheets, who had flexor tendon surgery in February and missed the '09 season. That injury caused a two-year deal with the Rangers to fall apart.
34. Doug Davis – Brewers. Davis was claimed off waivers by the Brewers in August, but they couldn't work out a deal with the D'Backs. At the time, Davis liked the idea of returning to Milwaukee. He'll probably have to back off his three-year demand to make it happen.
35. Jarrod Washburn – Brewers. Perhaps the Brewers won't sign these two mid-tier lefties, but they do figure to acquire a pair of starters somehow. Washburn could make it easier on the Brewers by providing a hometown discount. Otherwise, trading Mat Gamel could net an arm.
36. Russell Branyan – Mariners. Interest in a new contract is mutual. There are enough mitigating factors to make another one-year deal likely.
37. Billy Wagner – Cubs. The Cubs don't have much payroll space, and they may prefer to go with Carlos Marmol as their closer. Then again, they wouldn't do so a year ago when Marmol was coming off a good season. The Cubs could offer Wagner a chance to close, as could the Orioles, Rays, Tigers, Angels, and Braves. Even Wagner's old teams, the Phillies and Astros, have back-end bullpen concerns.
38. Juan Uribe – Mariners. Uribe was quietly very valuable in 2009, playing all around the infield for the Giants. Uribe's shortstop-third base flexibility could fit for Seattle.
39. John Smoltz – Tigers. Smoltz of course came up with the Tigers, and they considered him a year ago. They could sign him and keep an open mind as to his role.
40. Jermaine Dye – Rangers. The Rangers signing both Byrd and Dye might be a stretch, though Dye should be used strictly at DH. Given his second half decline he should be affordable.
41. Mark DeRosa – Phillies. I debated flipping the DeRosa-Beltre predictions, as both the Phillies and Twins have a need at third base. DeRosa, a former Penn quarterback, has been linked to the Phils for years.
42. Coco Crisp – Royals. The Royals already declined his $8MM option. But Crisp likes Kansas City and the Royals still need a center fielder, so an incentive-based deal could happen.
43. Carlos Delgado – Orioles. In Delgado, the Orioles could add a possible 30-home run bat with little risk. And Delgado could benefit from some time at DH.
44. Orlando Cabrera – Blue Jays. O-Cab might find a small market for his services this winter, even without a draft pick cost attached.
45. Gregg Zaun – Rays. Zaun can void his $2MM club option if the Rays exercise it, but he might be swayed by the chance to start.
46. Jim Thome – Athletics. The A's should have their pick of affordable free agent DHs. Thome's not done; he hit .249/.366/.481 this year.
47. Fernando Rodney – Tigers. I have no idea where Rodney will sign. No one will want to pay a premium for his 37 saves. He might be best-served returning to Detroit on a one-year deal worth $6MM or so.
48. Xavier Nady – Diamondbacks. The D'Backs will probably tender a contract to Conor Jackson, but Nady could still be helpful at first base and left field. He's a Scott Boras client, but he missed most of the season due to Tommy John surgery.
49. Kiko Calero - Rays. Calero's a health risk, so he might be cheap despite a 1.95 ERA and 10.4 K/9 in 60 innings this year. He's the type of reliever the Rays figure to add.
50. Rafael Betancourt – Rockies. I think the Rockies will work out a two-year deal to retain Betancourt as their setup man. It could include incentives for closing, should Huston Street depart after '10 or struggle before then.
Honorable mentions: Justin Duchscherer, Troy Glaus, Alex Gonzalez, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, Brett Myers, Vicente Padilla, Chan Ho Park, J.J. Putz, Takashi Saito, Jack Wilson
The 2009 Elias Rankings have been released, and Ed Price of AOL FanHouse has a full list of the Type-A and B free agents.
- Chone Figgins qualifies as a Type-A, not a Type-B as projected.
- Vladimir Guerrero qualifies as a Type-B, not a Type-A as projected.
- Gregg Zaun goes from no compensation to Type-B.
- Jerry Hairston Jr. goes from Type-B to no compensation.
- Hideki Matsui goes from Type-B to no compensation.
- Aubrey Huff goes from Type-B to no compensation.
If you're not sure how free agent compensation works, or if you just forgot, make sure you check out our primer.
A few tasty nuggets to fill the gap…
- Peter Abraham is moving to the Boston Gobe to cover the Red Sox…Congrats to Abraham. Well deserved.
- Ryan Divish of the Tacoma News-Tribune is reporting that the Mariners have hired Jeff Kingston to be their new Assistant GM. Kingston was formerly the Padres Director of Baseball Operations.
- Circling the Bases will be counting down the top 111 upcoming free agents starting with the bottom 20.
As MLBTR learned in January, and FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal notes in his most recent column, 34-year-old right-hander Tim Hudson holds a mutual $12MM option with the Braves for 2010. He's only made two starts this season, and still carries some injury risk, so the Braves aren't likely to pony up that kind of cash. If the option is declined, or Hudson simply opts out (the most likely scenario), he'll join a fairly intriguing 2010 free agent pitching class.
As for the other big names headed toward the open market? Rosenthal places the Angels' John Lackey right at the top:
"After Lackey," Rosenthal writes, "the top free-agent starters probably will be Cubs right-hander Rich Harden, Dodgers lefty Randy Wolf, Tigers lefty Jarrod Washburn, Rockies righty Jason Marquis, Diamondbacks lefty Doug Davis and Dodgers righty Jon Garland.
Veterans such as Phillies right-hander Pedro Martinez, Cardinals righty John Smoltz and Giants righty Brad Penny also will be back on the market."
We'd also throw Erik Bedard, Ben Sheets and Justin Duchscherer into the mix, despite the question marks surrounding their readiness. And Joel Pineiro is likely to score a major deal with the exceptional season he's having. It is going to be a fun offseason.
At the start of the year, we expected Matt Holliday to establish himself as the top free agent player heading into the offseason. After two months in Oakland, there's no question his value has sunk. Buster Olney says Holliday will be in position to command three-year offers worth just $30-35MM. There's still a lot of baseball left, but let's take a look at some of the reasons his value is so low:
- Holliday's hitting just .275/.368/.440
- His slugging percentage this year is 200 points lower than his career mark at Coors Field.
- He's attempted just five steals after stealing 28 bases last year.
But he still has a lot going for him:
- He has Scott Boras for an agent.
- He's hitting .330/.459/.534 since May 4th, with five homers and all four of his steals.
- If he's dealt to a contender and makes the playoffs he could boost his value by playing well in October.
Today let’s take a look at the 2010 options – there are 38 of them, as far as I can tell. Do you agree with these groupings?
Likely To Be Exercised
Josh Beckett (30) – $12MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Carl Crawford (28) – $10MM club option with a $1.25MM buyout
Akinori Iwamura (31) – $4.25MM club option with a $250K buyout
Cliff Lee (31) – $8MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Victor Martinez (31) – $7MM club option with a $250K buyout
Magglio Ordonez (36) – $15MM club/vesting option with a $3MM buyout (will probably vest)
Matt Thornton (33) – $2.25MM club option with a $250K buyout
Brandon Webb (31) – $8.5MM club option with a $500K+ buyout
To Be Determined
Doug Brocail (43) – $2.85MM club option with a $250K buyout
Coco Crisp (30) – $8MM club option with a $500K buyout
Alan Embree (40) – $3MM club option with a $250K buyout
Pedro Feliz (35) – $5MM club option with a $500K buyout
Ryan Franklin (37) – $2.75MM club option with a $250K buyout
Ramon Hernandez (34) – $8.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Masahide Kobayashi (36) – $3.25MM club option with a $250K buyout
Kevin Millwood (35) – Rangers can decline $12MM salary for ’10 unless he reaches 180 innings in ’09
Melvin Mora (38) – club option
Miguel Olivo (31) – $3.25MM mutual option
Vicente Padilla (32) – $12MM club option with a $1.75MM buyout
J.J. Putz (33) – $8.6MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Luis Vizcaino (35) – $4MM club option with a $500K buyout
Tim Wakefield (43) – perpetual $4MM club option
Jack Wilson (32) – $8.4MM club option with a $600K buyout
Unlikely To Be Exercised
Rafael Betancourt (35) – $5.4MM club option
Frank Catalanotto (36) – $5MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Jermaine Dye (36) – $12MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout (unlikely that both sides will exercise)
Adam Eaton (32) – $9MM mutual option with a $500K buyout
Ross Gload (34) – $2.6MM club option
Alex Gonzalez (32) – $6MM mutual option with a $500K buyout
Tim Hudson (34) – $12MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout
Geoff Jenkins (35) – $7.5MM mutual option with a $1.25MM buyout
Austin Kearns (30) – $10MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Noah Lowry (29) – $6.25MM club option
Freddy Sanchez (32) – $8MM club option with a $600K buyout
Yorvit Torrealba (31) – $4MM mutual option with a $500K buyout
Billy Wagner (38) – $8MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Yasuhiko Yabuta (37) – $4MM club option with a $500K buyout
Dmitri Young (36) -$6MM option vests with 500 PAs in ’09
Since it’s more of a reference, I didn’t allow comments on our 2010 MLB Free Agents post. This post will be the place for readers to comment on these players, who we’ll be talking about constantly a year from now (although some will sign extensions). Random thoughts:
- Scott Boras’ top guys for the 2009-10 offseason: Adrian Beltre, Johnny Damon, Matt Holliday, Rick Ankiel, and Ryan Madson. He’s weak in the starting pitching category with Jarrod Washburn and Kevin Millwood.
- The group feels older than this year’s. Players who will be under 30 in 2010: Omar Infante, Hank Blalock, Wily Mo Pena, Rich Harden, Brett Myers, and Madson.
- John Lackey heads the starting pitchers, though he may sign an extension. After him it’s Myers, unless Erik Bedard or Harden have huge, healthy years. Of course, there’s always guys you don’t see coming, like Ryan Dempster this year.
- If you want a big bat, you’re looking at whoever’s left of Carlos Delgado, Troy Glaus, Chipper Jones, Jason Bay, Holliday, Ankiel, Jermaine Dye, Vladimir Guerrero, Aubrey Huff, and Jim Thome.
- Forget about these guys, whose options will likely be exercised: Victor Martinez, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett, Cliff Lee, and Brandon Webb.
2010 MLB free agents – MLBTR's up-to-date list is below. These are players who are currently free agents. The player's 2010 age is in parentheses and Scott Boras clients are bolded. I've included Type A or B status. If you have any corrections or omissions, please contact us.
Paul Bako (38)
Chris Coste (37)
Toby Hall (34)
Paul Lo Duca (38)
Mike Rabelo (30)
Mike Redmond (39)
Shawn Riggans (30)
Garrett Atkins (30)
Hank Blalock (29)
Robb Quinlan (33)
Mark Grudzielanek (40)
Felipe Lopez (30)
Bobby Crosby (30)
Adam Everett (33)
Hank Blalock (29)
Joe Crede (32)
Ramon Vazquez (33)
Garret Anderson (38)
David Dellucci (36)
Gary Sheffield (41)
Cory Sullivan (30)
Joey Gathright (29)
Gary Matthews Jr. (35)
Jermaine Dye (36) – Type A, not offered arb
Gary Sheffield (41)
Brandon Backe (32)
Paul Byrd (39)
Bartolo Colon (37)
Adam Eaton (32)
Braden Looper (35) – Type B, not offered arb
Noah Lowry (29)
Pedro Martinez (38)
Eric Milton (34)
Odalis Perez (33)
Jason Schmidt (37)
John Smoltz (43)
Josh Towers (33)
Jarrod Washburn (35)
Todd Wellemeyer (31)
Chad Bradford (35)
Mike Burns (31)
Kiko Calero (35)
Juan Cruz (31)
Brendan Donnelly (38)
Edgar Gonzalez (27)
Tom Gordon (42)
Bob Howry (36)
Seth McClung (29)
Russ Ortiz (36)
David Riske (33)
Rudy Seanez (41)
Julian Tavarez (37)
Luis Vizcaino (35)
David Weathers (40) – Type B, not offered arb
Alan Embree (40)
Eddie Guardado (39)
Hunter Jones (26)
John Parrish (32)
Glendon Rusch (35)
Scott Schoeneweis (36)
Jamie Walker (38)
I’m not going to roll out a comprehensive list quite yet, but let’s take a look at some of the bigger names who will be eligible for free agency after the 2009 season. Some of these players may be trade candidates this winter. Reminder: these players can be free agents after the 2009 season, not this winter.
Ramon Hernandez – $8.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Victor Martinez – $7MM club option with a $250K buyout
Freddy Sanchez – $8MM club option with a $600K buyout
Carl Crawford – $10MM club option with a $1.25MM buyout
Coco Crisp – $8MM club option with a $500K buyout
Jermaine Dye – $12MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout
Ken Griffey Jr.
Magglio Ordonez – $15MM club/vesting option with a $3MM buyout
Josh Beckett – $12MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Tim Hudson – $12MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout
Cliff Lee – $8MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Brandon Webb – $8.5MM club option with a $500K+ buyout
J.J. Putz – $8.6MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Billy Wagner – $8MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Obviously it’s tough to say who will hit the market. Sluggers like Bay, Holliday, and Ankiel stand a good chance. Among starters, Bedard, Myers, and Harden are possibilities.