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By Ben Nicholson-Smith [June 1, 2009 at 10:37am CST]
ESPN.com's Buster Olney writes that there's a chance no player will sign a contract longer than four years during the coming offseason. Here's a handful of the many predictions he makes about baseball's next class of free agent talent.
- Matt Holliday, whose power numbers are pedestrian so far, is in position for a deal worth three years and $30-35MM. Not much when you consider many expected him to sign for over $100MM, but he and Scott Boras still have four months to change the perception that Holliday needs Coors Field.
- Since Aubrey Huff's hitting cleanup in a good lineup, his numbers figure to be strong enough for him to command a two-year deal (maybe even three).
- Orlando Hudson's hot bat and spectacular glove make him a candidate for a three or four-year deal if he can continue producing at a similar rate.
- Johnny Damon could ride "Coors Field East" to a decent contract, but at 36, he's unlikely to see offers longer than two years.
- John Lackey's "likely to get the biggest deal of any free agent this winter" and could be the only player to sign for more than $50MM. Jason Bay would likely command over $50MM, I would think.
- Olney says it's unknown whether the Red Sox will bid three or four years on him and adds that the Yankees may not bid aggressively on Bay since they need room for Derek Jeter.
WOW, Holliday at 3, 30-33 million? A lot of people said he's a Coors Field hitter, but I didn't believe them. Now I do. He's startin to turn it around, and the A's aren't doing so well themselves,,,so. If he stays in the 3,30 range, I'd beg for the Braves to trade for him and then have someone overpay for him.
Posted by: Braves for NL East!! | June 01, 2009 at 10:57 AM
How about this -- the Yankees look at the situation and decide that a player like Bay or Joe Mauer make a better long-term investment than Jeter. Money isn't an object for the Yankees of course, but Hank decides Jeter's asking price is too high for a player who will be on the wrong side of 35 when his current contract ends. So they either let him walk, or they low-ball him.
Meanwhile, also following the 2010 season, the Red Sox are finally free of the Julio Lugo albatross and in the market for a SS.......
I'm just saying.
Posted by: CubsAddictMG | June 01, 2009 at 11:08 AM
Damon can't hit left handed pitching anymore. He is really only a platoon player going forward as a dh/5thOF. IF he gets more then a 1 year 5 million dollar deal I will be shocked.
Posted by: dan l | June 01, 2009 at 11:42 AM
Braves- that makes no sense. Billy Beane will still ask for an arm and a leg...that's what he does. And for what? A guy who hasn't looked like much thus far. I know you need outfielders, but that seems desperate. '...and then have someone overpay for him.'????? What do you mean? Are you talking about FA compensation? Picking up draft picks? 'Flipping' him? None of those scenarios make any sense whatsoever, so...
As an O's fan, the Huff aspect intrigued me. It should be interesting to watch what the Birds do with Huff this year...whether they'll deal their big slugger at the deadline or hang on to him and try to collect draft picks. I'm going to go out on a pretty huge, sturdy limb and say he's a likely Type A and should garner some interest on the FA market. I'd also guess that the O's would offer arbitration, given his relatively cost-effective contract. Likewise, Huff would almost certainly decline in order to net a bigger payday. Two premium picks would be nice for an organization that hasn't had an extra pick since '06, but I also wouldn't be surprised to see an in-season trade if the price is right. The youth movement is in full swing now, so MacPhail has to be looking to unload Huff, Mora, Walker (good luck!), and possibly even guys like Sherrill, Baez, and Scott (maybe for you, Braves for NL East!).
By May/June of next year, the O's could have the youngest team in baseball.
Posted by: milehigh78 | June 01, 2009 at 12:39 PM
Damon can't hit left handed pitching anymore. He is really only a platoon player going forward as a dh/5thOF. IF he gets more then a 1 year 5 million dollar deal I will be shocked.
Posted by: dan l | June 01, 2009 at 11:42 AM
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Damon's hitting .274 vs lefties. His lifetime avg vs lefties in .284. That's not far from his usual numbers. Almost all of his homers are vs righties and we tends to walk more vs righties vs lefties. I really don't think that it's that drastic of a split to make it an issue but a platoon could happen. I think a 1 or 2 year deal for around $5 mil per is about right for Damon at this point in his career.
Posted by: YanksFanSince78 | June 01, 2009 at 12:57 PM
Holliday is still the best FA not named Lackey.
JBay has been worth 1.4 WAR so far this season..
Matt Holliday has been worth 1.2 WAR.
That's a marginal difference. See: defense.
Holliday is having a down year.
Bay is having a MASSIVE career year. Can someone say with a straight face that he's going to keep a 1.042 OPS for the season when he hadn't OPS'ed over .950 since 2005. He's 31, Holliday's 28.
If Bay gets more than Holliday, that is a massive overpayment for Bay. Hopefully teams look at trends as opposed to just the previous year.
Posted by: melonis rex | June 01, 2009 at 01:00 PM
Aubrey Huff is on the downside of his career. 2008 was a career for him and he probably won't come close to those numbers again. He's not an elite hitter at this point in his career and probably won't find anyone offering him huge multi-year deals. He's probably looking at something along the lines of 2 yrs/$13-$15 mil. That being said, if I'm Aubrey I might be tempted to accept that arbitration offer knowing that the draft pick comp will probably "thin out" the teams willing to sign me. On the flip side if Aubrey accepts arbitration then chances are he would be awarded a salary equal to or greater than the 2009 salary of $9 mil.
Posted by: YanksFanSince78 | June 01, 2009 at 01:06 PM
Holliday needs Coors and Coors needs Holliday.
Rockies should make a move involving Atkins+ for Holliday.
Posted by: ProgMatinee | June 01, 2009 at 01:24 PM
"If Bay gets more than Holliday, that is a massive overpayment for Bay. Hopefully teams look at trends as opposed to just the previous year. "
I agree on this point. Bay rocked earlier this season, but his stats and strikeouts are begining to pile up the last several weeks as AL pitchers slowly learn to throw him sliders and other breaking stuff both away and in the dirt and Bay swings futilely at them.
As much as would like to have his excellent FB hitting bat in the lineup for 2-3 years at a reasonable price tag (2-3y 25-35m) I think that he is going to want a lot more than that and Epstein is wise to maybe let him play the market.
If Holliday does indeed get stuck with a 3/30m'ish deal, then so much the better, Holliday "should" be able to put up fairly close to Coors field numbers at fenway if the Sox would go a tad over 3/30m, to say 3-40m and could grab him.
Posted by: johns | June 01, 2009 at 01:56 PM
Damon's hitting .274 vs lefties. His lifetime avg vs lefties in .284. That's not far from his usual numbers. Almost all of his homers are vs righties and we tends to walk more vs righties vs lefties. I really don't think that it's that drastic of a split to make it an issue but a platoon could happen. I think a 1 or 2 year deal for around $5 mil per is about right for Damon at this point in his career.
Posted by: YanksFanSince78 | June 01, 2009 at 12:57 PM
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The last 2 years Damon has put up and Ops of .705 and .710 against lefties. This year his Ops against lefties is .700. Again this year his Obp against lefties so far this season is below .300. So I will say again he is a platoon player. If Nady comes back able to play the field Damon should not play against lefties imo.
Posted by: dan l | June 01, 2009 at 02:05 PM
Holliday just got off to a slow start and is doing fine now, so all the HE NEEDED COORS are just confirmation bias losers.
But who will get Lackey? IMO he's very overrated. I think he'll stay with the Angels. The Yankees are set with pitching, I don't think the Red Sox will want him.
Posted by: nut bunnies | June 01, 2009 at 02:54 PM
Huff is always a slow starter. He won't replicate his numbers from last year, but I think you could bank on an .850 OPS for the next 2 years and not look too silly.
Do we trade him? I think it depends on a few things, most importantly what we can get back. We'd probably ask for full salary relief, along with a B+ SS/3B prospect who is close to major league ready (at most a year away). If we don't get it, we'll probably just sit tight and take the draft picks.
Posted by: ugen64 | June 01, 2009 at 02:56 PM
I would personally love to keep the middle infield of Furcal and Hudson in tact. We will know by Aug. if Hudson will stay. If the Dodgers trade DeWitt in a trade for a pitcher, Hudson is our guy. If not, it will be a young guy.
With Lackey, I think it will be a race btwn the Angels and Dodgers. If the dodgers trade for a top line pitcher, then they are probably out, if not, im not really sure who else
Posted by: lakersdodgersyankees4life | June 01, 2009 at 03:41 PM
The last 2 years Damon has put up and Ops of .705 and .710 against lefties. This year his Ops against lefties is .700. Again this year his Obp against lefties so far this season is below .300. So I will say again he is a platoon player. If Nady comes back able to play the field Damon should not play against lefties imo.
Posted by: dan l | June 01, 2009 at 02:05 PM
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Well that's the issue. Nadys elbow probably will not allow him to play the field. He JUST started a throwing program after being on the DL for a month. At this point "Noodle Arm" Damon might actually have a stronger arm than Nady. It might make sense to platoon Nady @ the DH spot against leftties and Matsui (.238 vs lefties) against righties.
As for Damon, his .274 against lefties aren't alarming to me. I've seen him turn on plenty of inside pitches from lefties, especially in Yankee stadium. Problem he usually lines them right at someone. I guess if it really became a problem then he could sit against tough lefties and we could slide Melky to LF and let Gardner play in CF.
As for 2010, Matsui is 90% gone unless he wants to stay for cheap as a bat off the bench. Damon might be 60/40 to leave depending on how strong he and everyone else (Melky, Gardner, Swish and Ajax) finish.
Posted by: YanksFanSince78 | June 01, 2009 at 03:50 PM
" I think a 1 or 2 year deal for around $5 mil per is about right for Damon at this point in his career.
Posted by: YanksFanSince78 | June 01, 2009 at 12:57 PM "
Every team in baseball would want a part of that.
Posted by: 661dodgerblue | June 01, 2009 at 03:50 PM
"Damon can't hit left handed pitching anymore. He is really only a platoon player going forward as a dh/5thOF. IF he gets more then a 1 year 5 million dollar deal I will be shocked"
So stupid. A .700 OPS vs lefties is fine, especially when you have a 1.000 OPS against righties. I don't know where the hell you came up with 1/5. All he does is give you a .360 OBP every year, at worst, along with some pop and 25 stolen bases. Also, arm aside, he is a nice LF. This guy is a wonderful offensive player, if somebody can get him for a 1/5 deal during the winter that will easily be the best deal made of the offseason. I don't think 2/20 is really out of the question at all, especially for the Yankees.
Posted by: nrmax88 | June 01, 2009 at 03:53 PM
Huff is always a slow starter. He won't replicate his numbers from last year, but I think you could bank on an .850 OPS for the next 2 years and not look too silly.
Do we trade him? I think it depends on a few things, most importantly what we can get back. We'd probably ask for full salary relief, along with a B+ SS/3B prospect who is close to major league ready (at most a year away). If we don't get it, we'll probably just sit tight and take the draft picks.
Posted by: ugen64 | June 01, 2009 at 02:56 PM
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Your best bet is to trade him now for whatever you get. Even w/o draft pick compensation look how difficult it was for Abreu and Dunn, both better/comparable hitters, to get deals this winter. What team is going to be willing to give up picks for Huff? If you offer Huff arbitration then I'm 80% sure he's going to accept it.
Posted by: YanksFanSince78 | June 01, 2009 at 03:53 PM
Holliday just got off to a slow start and is doing fine now, so all the HE NEEDED COORS are just confirmation bias losers. Posted by: nut bunnies | June 01, 2009 at 02:54 PM
I think your stretching it a little bit here. Over his last month Holliday's numbers are .286 BA, 16R, 4Hr, 14RBI, 4 SB.
Now granted the team is horrible and he is not in a pitchers park but those are pretty pedestrian numbers. At this point I think a 3 year 33 million deal is about right. I don't believe Boras will accept that, but I don't think Holliday will be getting blown away with offers.
Posted by: Chris | June 01, 2009 at 04:00 PM
Holliday just got off to a slow start and is doing fine now, so all the HE NEEDED COORS are just confirmation bias losers.
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Holliday has hit 5 of his 6 hrs in May. The pace he hit them wasn't anything dramatic. At this pace, unless he goes on a super tear, then in 550 at bats he'll probably end up with around 18-20 hrs and if LUCKY a .290/.380 split. That's a far cry from .320+/.400+ 25+ hr lines he's put up in the past. So as far as big paydays are concerned, he will get far, far less than the 8/150+ mil numbers that most thought he might demand. And w/ sub .300/.400 25+ hr numbers don't expect the Yankees or Sox to be big bidders for his services. Even if he does end strong I still think the Yanks are going to pass.
Posted by: YanksFanSince78 | June 01, 2009 at 04:03 PM
It's ironic....aside from Bay, Bedard, Molina, Figgins, Hudson and Damon, most of the 2009 FA's are posting dissapointing numbers or have been injured so far. That list includes Holliday, Ordonez, Vlad, Nady, Lackey, Delgado, LaRoche, Cabrera, Giambi, Garciapara, Beltre and Ankiel.
Posted by: YanksFanSince78 | June 01, 2009 at 04:11 PM
I'm guessing that Bay gets a three year deal (with a team option for a fourth year) from the Sox for 12.5m per.
Bay has creaky knees, and playing LF in Fenway is good for him. Hitting in that lineup and in that ballpark (with a great manager, organization, fans etc) doesn't hurt, either.
I don't think the economy is getting better any time soon. And Heaven forbid there should be another attack on this country or another natural disaster, but external shocks could worsen the economy.
50m over 4 years sounds right in this environment.
Posted by: DirtyWaterBeatdown | June 01, 2009 at 07:44 PM