If The Reds Become Buyers

There's been plenty of talk about the Reds becoming sellers later this year, potentially shedding the salaries of Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, and Francisco Cordero.  However, at 17-15, this team is firmly in contention.  The problem is that their runs scored and allowed totals suggest a below-.500 team, a club that should finish with 74 wins or so.  To remain in the playoff hunt, the Reds need to play better.

With 4.66 runs scored per game this year, the Reds rank in the middle of the NL.  If they're able to maintain that production, they'd probably finish around sixth in the runs scored rankings.  Improvements might come from within, as more is expected from Brandon Phillips, Orlando Cabrera, Drew Stubbs, and Jonny Gomes.  My speculation: potential outfield bats the Reds could pursue include Scott Podsednik, Andruw Jones, David DeJesus, and Ryan Church.  The ability to play center field would be beneficial.

The Reds' starting pitching has been terrible, with a 5.31 ERA.  Only Mike Leake has an ERA under 5.00.  Again, improvements should come from within, with Harang, Arroyo, Johnny Cueto, and Homer Bailey capable of better things.  Aroldis Chapman doesn't appear ready given a 5.1 BB/9 in Triple A.  One interesting rental idea if the Diamondbacks continue to stumble: Brandon Webb.  He's talked about playing closer to his Kentucky home, so Cincinnati would be perfect.

The Reds' bullpen has technically struggled, though much of the ERA damage came from low-leverage pitchers Logan Ondrusek and Carlos Fisher.  Despite spotty control, Nick Masset's 14.6 K/9 and .511 BABIP suggest he'll round back into setup man form.

Like most teams, the Reds have a few areas for improvement.  However, their likeliest path to the playoffs involves veterans simply meeting expectations.


Full Story | 39 Comments | Categories: Cincinnati Reds

39 Responses to If The Reds Become Buyers Leave a Reply

  1. mikeleake 5 years ago

    a true leadoff hitter would be nice

  2. schellis 5 years ago

    If Webb proves himself to be healthy and his typical self I would be thrilled to see the Reds trade for and extend him. because of his high ground ball tendencies he’d be a fit for GABP and because of his desire to be close to home may give the Reds something of a discount as well. Add in the fact that Price was his pitching coach in Arizona.

    I would also like to see the Reds target one of the displaced Texas catchers just so they have have a young catcher in the system till Mesaroco is ready.

    • plphilli 5 years ago

      dude mesaraco hasn’t gotten out of A ball in 4 years. He’s a bust.

  3. natsfan99 5 years ago

    Hope about Elijah Dukes………seems he just disappeared from the game of baseball??? The only bad mention that he had with the Nationals is that he wasn’t a happy-go-lucky person……what does that have to do with his skills? I think he would fit in great here or with any team in need of a strong outfielder. As long as he keeps his attitude in check, not get into any trouble (which he’s done well the last two years)…..why not? Let’s play ball!!!!

  4. j6takish 5 years ago

    They should fire Dusty, addition by subtraction

  5. natsfan99 5 years ago

    Elijah Dukes would fit in perfectly here….or any team in need of a outfield bat. What has happened to him? With the nationals there were no problems other than the fact that he isn’t a happy-go-lucky type of person, but he showed his patience with the fans always. Especially the kids! Any team would benefit from having him and I’ve seen no mention of him since the beginning of April????

    • withpower 5 years ago

      Elijah Dukes is bat—- insane. Probably not a super duper idear.

      • natsfan99 5 years ago

        you kill me with you expert opinion. Are you a doctor or a baseball fan?? I thought so…

  6. PrettySmitty 5 years ago

    The problem with the names mentioned, Posednick, Dejesus, Church, they are ALL left handed sticks. We do need a lead off man even though Cabrera is doing okay… for now. We need a LF power stick that can hit for average, and Bullpen needs some work. I would still like to give up Harang/Bronson and prospects in exchange for a legit ace. I hope we are in playoff contention for once, Yonder is a useless chip for us right now. Trade him if we can.

  7. withpower 5 years ago

    If the Reds become buyers……….

    I’ll eat my hat.

  8. Gunner65 5 years ago

    A LF RH power hitter has been the biggest missing element for this team for 2-3 seasons now and Walt has yet to find anything close to what is needed. As for pitching, Harang has been very good over his last 3 starts after working through an adjustment period with his new mechanics. Looks to be back in pre 2008 form. Arroyo is what he is … a .500 pitcher who has the occasional 2 inning 10 run games. Cueto & Bailey are the ones that have not taken the next step. If they are still struggling come post all start break, Volquez should be ready by then to take one of their spots. At SS, Cabrera has been a nice upgrade offensively but his defense range is awful and has cost the Reds several outs already. Hopefully Cozart will be the answer to that position in the near future

  9. larkinforever 5 years ago

    Ctown you are dead wrong. The only example you cited that is legitimately “lucky” is the lack of injuries.
    You said that they have been lucky that they have been playing team right after they have been hot? You mean playing a team coming in on a hot streak is lucky??? The Astros were on something like an 8 game winning streak when the reds went in and swept them. Take a look back over the last month. How many of the Reds opponents came into their series with the Reds on serious hot streaks? That is lucky? You talk about the warm weather heating up the opponents bats? Ummm I think that works both ways brother. You stated the home/road record. 2 over at home and .500 on the road. If that trend keeps up I will take that all year! That would equate to a nice little record at the end of the season. You list Rhodes stats and contribute that to luck? Seriously? Do you even try to read your posts before you hit submit? Thats damn good pitching not luck! You are trying so daggone hard to be negative but you are losing more and more ammo by the day. Give it up. Your act is tired. Go root for the Cubs where your negativity will fit in.

  10. Not sure why people keep talking about the Reds as darkhorse contenders the last few years. Simply put, they’re not a very good team. Right now could be their high water mark for this season, in fact if they finish 2 over .500 this year it would likely be considered a successful season give recent history. Their run differential tells a better, more complete story of them as a team and at -20 they’d be fourth in the league and two games under .500. Should the Reds really expect to outperform their run differential for the rest of the season or should they expect their record to more accurately reflect that differential as the season goes on? Every year there are a few teams that are either lucky or unlucky and go in the opposite direction of their run differential, but generally speaking you are your run differential just like you are what you eat. The Reds are essentially a sub-.500 team that has gotten a bit lucky so far this year. If they go all out and start buying then maybe they finish above .500. Seems to me that the better idea would be for them to continue stockpiling young players and hope to contend for real in a year or two (or three). That said, if they are going to be buyers they really need to concentrate on pitching, specifically ground ball pitchers (that’s you, Mr. Webb, if you ever get healthy). With Dusty as manager and that staff leading the charge it’s hard to imagine them being in contention come September. I’m sure I won’t make any friends with Reds fans for pointing this out but year after year it’s pretty much the same thing for them, until they actually honest to God contend then the smart move is to bet against them.

    • ctownboy 5 years ago

      Exactly!

      Currently, there are 15 teams that have a negative Run Differential. Three of those teams have a winning record and 12 of those teams have a losing record.

      The Reds are 17 and 15 and have a -20 Run Differential.
      The Nationals are 18 and 14 and have a -16 RD.
      The D-Backs are 14 and 19 and have a -25 RD.
      The Mariners are 12 and 19 and have a -22 RD.
      The White Sox are 13 and 19 and have a -24 RD.

      For those who don’t think having a negative Run Differential over a season makes a difference, I refer you to these stats.

      2005 – 15 teams had a negative RD. Two of those teams had a winning record that year, 12 had a losing record and one was .500.

      2006 – 13 teams had a negative RD. One team had a winning record and 12 teams had a losing record.

      2007 – 16 teams had a negative RD. Two teams had a winning record and 14 had a losing record.

      2008 – 14 teams had a negative RD. One had a winning record and 13 had a losing record.

      2009 – 15 teams had a negative RD. Two had a winning record and 13 had a losing record.

      Again the Reds have NOT had any serious injuries to a starting position player or starting pitcher, the starting pitchers have been bad and haven’t had their “dead arm” period yet, the relief pitchers are getting overworked, the team has played 20 of their 32 Games against teams with losing records, they have played more Home Games than Road Games and are scoring about a Run more at Home than on the Road AND they have, so far, been outscored by the opposition.

      So, for those drinking the Kool -Aid, go ask the Las Vegas odds makers what the Reds chances are from here on out on having a winning record and going to the Play Offs.

      Yes, the offense might get a little better but the chances are even greater that the OPPOSING teams offenses improve more. When THAT happens, the Reds will NOT be winning these close Games.

  11. larkinforever 5 years ago

    8-4 in 1 run games and 4-0 in extra innings. That is the sign of a good baseball team. Not a lucky baseball team. You mention Mike Leake. Wait until the league finds out he doesn’t have a fastball that will blow them away? Tell that to Greg Maddux.
    So the highlight of your season is a 7 game losing streak? I think that is enough right there to expose you as a hater. You just can’t stand success can you?
    I’ll sit back and enjoy winning baseball!!!!
    Go Reds!

    • Actually, a lot of one run and extra innings games aren’t a sign of a good team, blowouts are a sign of a good team. By then end of the season it’s more likely that the Reds will have played many more one run and extra inning games than say, the Yankees. Would that mean that the Reds are better than the Yankees? No.

      And you’re comparing Leake to Maddux when he’s made less than 10 MLB starts? That is seriously foolish. You’ve drunk the Koolaid, we get it, but don’t pee on our legs and tell us it’s raining.

      You’ve essentially taken a few characteristics of the Reds, drawn the wrong conclusions and started calling anyone who disagrees with you haters who can’t stand it when the Reds succeed. So I suppose that every baseball fan in the world who isn’t a fan of the Reds is a hater who desires to see the Reds fail more than anything. Hey, your team is two games over .500 after about 30 some odd games, they haven’t “shocked the world” yet. Any you know that if they’re still above .500 in a month Reds fans will be crawling out of the wood work with that “shock the world” cliche. Quite frankly the world doesn’t care much about the Reds and don’t care enough to be shocked by anything they do.

    • robdicken 5 years ago

      The Reds are 2nd in the Majors in Average with 2-outs and runners in scoring position, just below the Yankees. THAT is a sign of a good baseball team.

      The Reds have all the tools in place, especially the minor league depth, to make a run at the NL Central pennant and Wild Card race. Youth is on their side, which is more than what can be said for teams like the Cards and Cubs who have huge contracts on their hands and will likely eat most of them due to lack of production (except for Pujols and Carpenter).

      The Cubs bullpen “blowing games” is an excuse considering the fact that 90% of their players are under performing. I would say beating the Cubs 14-2 the other night, and then Johnny Cueto pitching a 1-hit shutout beating the Pirates 9-0 on Tuesday is enough indication that this team is a serious contender. If you think otherwise, you’re ignoring the facts.

      This team has 6 starters that could drive in 70+ runs this season or more. 3 to 4 of which that are capable of putting 90+ runs or more across the plate.

      Cubs fans are just angry they haven’t won a series in 100+ years and ctown is just ALWAYS angry…never optimistic. This team doesn’t have a $200+ million payroll like the Yankees. You can’t spend the money if the money isn’t there, and definitely not considering that the average game attendance is under 20,000.

      Quit bitching…get to the games…and support your team.

  12. schellis 5 years ago

    High school catchers tend to take a while to develop. Mesaroco is actually hitting well this year and should be advanced likely before the break.

  13. justgriff 5 years ago

    Mesarco was a bust, now he’s a top line prospect again. Look at his numbers so far this year, I think he’s got a 1.200 OPS, although I don’t have defensive stats, I hear is very good defensively behind the plate.

  14. BigRedOne 5 years ago

    Brandon Webb would be a nice addition. Plus, he may even take a hometown discount for an extension. Look at this rotation for 2011:

    Brandon Webb
    Aroldis Chapman
    Edinson Volquez
    Mike Leake
    Johnny Cueto
    Homer Bailey

    Outstanding!

  15. BigRedOne 5 years ago

    Brandon Webb would be a nice addition. Plus, he may even take a hometown discount for an extension. Look at this rotation for 2011:

    Brandon Webb
    Aroldis Chapman
    Edinson Volquez
    Mike Leake
    Johnny Cueto
    Homer Bailey

    Outstanding!

  16. BigRedOne 5 years ago

    The world doesn’t care about the Reds? The Reds haven’t been dominant in 30 years so that’ll do that to an organization. However, the Reds are on the verge of being perennial contenders, with their minor leagues finally producing talent and having an amateur scouting director talented as Chris Buckley. Once the Reds are in the postseason again, their popularity will soar again and that just eats away at Cubs and Cards fans. The fact is the Dodgers only started making the postseason a few years ago after a decade of missing the playoffs, and their popularity dipped too. The fact is, outside of Los Angeles, no one cares about the Dodgers either.

  17. BigRedOne 5 years ago

    The world doesn’t care about the Reds? The Reds haven’t been dominant in 30 years so that’ll do that to an organization. However, the Reds are on the verge of being perennial contenders, with their minor leagues finally producing talent and having an amateur scouting director talented as Chris Buckley. Once the Reds are in the postseason again, their popularity will soar again and that just eats away at Cubs and Cards fans. The fact is the Dodgers only started making the postseason a few years ago after a decade of missing the playoffs, and their popularity dipped too. The fact is, outside of Los Angeles, no one cares about the Dodgers either.

  18. BigRedOne 5 years ago

    The fact that Cubs fans are reading and posting on Reds articles only proves their obsession with us.

  19. BigRedOne 5 years ago

    The fact that Cubs fans are reading and posting on Reds articles only proves their obsession with us.

  20. The Reds might be buyers in July, but they’ll have to unload some salary before they start purchasing contracts.

  21. mdccclxix 5 years ago

    Ctown, the Reds are LUCKY you’re not a fan of their team. Or perhaps UNLUCKY you consider yourself one. Your rants are PREDICTABLE and usually VERY negative.

  22. larkinforever 5 years ago

    sorry duplicate post

  23. ctownboy 5 years ago

    Yes and based on how the Front Office and ownership think and go about doing their business, the results are PREDEICTABLE and NEGATIVE.

  24. ctownboy 5 years ago

    Yes, right now the Reds are following the same path as the last few years. They aren’t spending the money neccessary to increase payroll and bring in GOOD players and they aren’t going full tilt into rebuild mode and using the young players to see what they have and what they need.

    The Reds are trying to have it both ways and as a result will continually be a near .500 team. Of course Ca$htellini LOVES it that way. Not bad enough that the fans turn away early in the season (ala Houston and Baltimore) yet not good enough that he has to go out and spend money during the season to bring in talent to make a run at the Post Season. Thus, he makes money on the team early in the season and gets to shed payroll during the middle of the season.

    Reds’ fans should ask themselves THIS question – what happens if the team is marginally successful this year? What if they go 83 and 79? Does the team CONTINUE to keep high priced players like Harang, Arroyo and Cordero? Do they CONTINUE to keep the old guys like Rolen, Cabrera and Hernandez? Do they CONTINUE to keep the platoon and scrap heap players like Gomes, Nix and Cairo?

    A lot of people think Harang and/or Arroyo are gone after this year with Volquez and Chapman taking their places. The problem with THAT is that Volquez has NEVER thrown 200 Innings in a Major League season and Chapman has not been in the Majors yet. Meanwhile, both Harang and Arroyo have shown that they can throw 200+ Innings a year AND be healthy and successful.

    If the Reds THINK they are winning because of the “veteran presence” that Rolen, Cabrera (how come so many winning teams keep dumping him?) and Hernandez bring to the team (yeah, how is that going with Brandon Phillips?) are they goping to keep them all and let the young guys rot in the Minors or are they going to get rid of some/all of them and let the young guys play?

  25. mdccclxix 5 years ago

    Ctown, you have it both ways as well. Kick’m when they’re up, kick’m when they’re down. No credit due, just blame, blame, blame. Dr Evil Castillini is in it just to scam and perpetrate., bla, bla, bla.

  26. Guest 5 years ago

    They should release anyone over 30! And, see if AAAA guys like Frazier can do the job!

  27. ctownboy 5 years ago

    Ca$htellini has an MBA in Economicxs from the Wharton School of Business. So, he KNOWS the break even point of where the team can make money and he KNOWS the BEST possible point of where he can make the MOST profit.

    If he TRULY wanted to win then he could increase the team payroll to $90 million dollars and get GOOD ball players in. But he doesn’t do that now, does he?

    NO!! He gets over the hill ball players which he can hype and he gets scrubs and rejects which he HOPES he can catch lightening in a bottle with.

    My theory is that he WANTS a .500 ball club EVERY year. That way, he can keep the team payroll in the middle of the pack and use the revenue sharing and other streams of income to pay for most of the payroll. That way, whatever money he makes on the attendance that shows up goes straight to the bottom line.

    However, that isn’t neccessarily true if he bumps the team payroll to $90 million dollars. If he did that, the Reds would HAVE to have a winning record and also probably HAVE to make the Post Season for him to turn a profit.

    Nope, again, being .500 is the best thing he could hope for. Good enough to keep the fans interested long enough for them to spend some money after the kids are out of school but NOT good for him to have to open his wallet and bring in a player or two at the trade deadline.

  28. “pageian your (sic) a moron.”

    How about instead of calling names try refuting anything I said, how about trying to change my mind instead of just whining? And what do the Cubs have to do with this conversation? Because you saw my avatar? Never fails, say something that someone disagrees with and the first thing out of their mouth is an insult to your favorite team. We can disagree and I really don’t care what you think of me, but how about raising the bar a little for the debate instead of acting like an 8 year old. Don’t agree with me? Tell me why and tell me why I’m wrong, explain your side. Think what I said was wrong? Tell me why, try to convey your thoughts, maybe I’ll change my mind.

    And btw, with your powers of prognostication you should be in Vegas getting rich. I mean you already know how this season is going to play out and where the teams are going to finish…. Oh wait, no you don’t. Telling someone that their team sucks is fine, telling them that they’re going to finish in a certain spot in their division isn’t. You lose credibility.

  29. lewis21 5 years ago

    pageian, your a cubs fan. you lose credibility.

  30. “pageian, your (sic) a cubs fan. you lose credibility.”

    So this is the logic Reds fans use to make judgments about things? No wonder things like run differential get ignored. Making snap judgments based on appearance is a poor way to go through life. Anyone in this thread who were down on the Reds chances of contending used facts, ie. statistics when they made their arguments. To refute those arguments Reds fans made fun of the poster and ran down the posters team. I’ve been to plenty of Reds games and I know that most of the fans are knowledgeable baseball fans. I guess the immature ones end up posting on this site instead.

  31. Guest 5 years ago

    Good. The Reds drafted him to trade him, so let’s hope they get something for him

  32. Guest 5 years ago

    Good. The Reds drafted him to trade him, so let’s hope they get something for him

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