Revisiting The Felipe Paulino For Clint Barmes Trade

One month into the season, it looked like the Felipe PaulinoClint Barmes trade would go down as a lose-lose deal. Paulino struggled through his first month with the Rockies and Barmes spent the first four weeks of the season on the disabled list while he recovered from a fractured left hand. 

But Paulino has put together his best season yet and Barmes recovered from his hand injury on his way to a strong campaign in Houston. Win-win trade? Not quite. The Rockies gave up on Paulino after 14 2/3 ugly innings, so the Royals are the ones who benefitted from the 27-year-old’s turnaround.

Paulino, who struck out 11 without walking a batter in seven innings of work on Saturday, has a 4.10 ERA in 107 2/3 innings since the Royals acquired him in late May. His fastball clocks in over 95 mph, just as it has every season of his career, and his peripheral stats are strong: 8.3 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 45.1% ground ball rate, 3.81 xFIP.

Considering that Kansas City only gave up cash considerations, the Paulino move looks especially favorable for the Royals. They need the pitching and can pencil the Dominican right-hander into their rotation going forward. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes estimates a raise from $790K to $1.6MM in 2012, so Paulino will remain affordable next year.

The Astros could use the pitching, but Paulino had his chances in Houston and the Astros needed a shortstop. For $3.925MM, Barmes has hit .249/.323/.388 with ten home runs. FanGraphs’ UZR suggests the 32-year-old plays above-average defense and their version of wins above replacement has Barmes as the 11th most productive shortstop in baseball this season (3.1 WAR).

He’ll hit free agency after the season and doesn’t project as a ranked free agent, so this may be all Houston gets out of Barmes. Even if he departs for nothing this offseason, the Astros will have done significantly better than the Rockies in this trade. It’s not that Colorado was necessarily going to keep Barmes – he was a non-tender candidate in the offseason – but the Rockies are the only team that didn’t profit from last November’s trade. The Royals ended up with a cheap, productive arm, the Astros got an affordable everyday shortstop and all the Rockies got was 14 2/3 innings of 7.36 ERA ball.


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12 Comments on "Revisiting The Felipe Paulino For Clint Barmes Trade"


some_numbers
3 years 11 months ago

personally, i always use a pitcher’s win-loss record and a position player’s batting average when i make assessments. it’s good to know that it isn’t just me.

Andy Patton
3 years 11 months ago

Or apparently Felix Hernandez was barely above subpar in 2010 with his mediocre 13-12 record

Austin Swafford
3 years 11 months ago

Astros gave up a young, hard-throwing pitcher they were paying basically nothing to for a 30-something shortstop who had played mediocre for a team that everyone knew was doing absolutely nothing this year. To give up a young, hard-throwing pitcher and pay almost $4 mil for that is just the kind of investment everyone’s come to expect from Ed Wade.

vtadave
3 years 11 months ago

Guessing most people here won’t favor Wins and Batting Average as the best ways to evaluate players.

Fact is there is no harder-throwing starting pitcher in the game than Paulino and now he’s getting more consistent with his control, as his walk rate has dropped about a full point over last year.  I’ll take a 27 year-old starter who throws hard and has a sub-4.00 xFIP over a mediocre soon-to-be free agent shortstop.

some_numbers
3 years 11 months ago

personally, i always use a pitcher’s win-loss record and a position player’s batting average when i make assessments. it’s good to know that it isn’t just me.

3 years 11 months ago

If you’re foolish enough to think wins are a vital part of a pitcher than you might as well say AJ Burnett was just as much of an ace of the 2008 Blue Jays as Roy Halladay. Seeing as how both pitchers had very identical win-loss records that season.

vtadave
3 years 11 months ago

Pretty sure he was being sarcastic.

rayking
3 years 11 months ago

I’m guessing he was being sarcastic. Or maybe I’m just hoping, for his sake.

some_numbers
3 years 11 months ago

if you’re foolish enough to think that i was being serious then you might want to spend a bit more time practicing the internet.

twenty1thirteen
3 years 11 months ago

Obviously, you’re not a golfer.

Mario Saavedra
3 years 11 months ago

For sarcasm to be funny and/or understandable, it must be able to be recognized.

“personally, i always use a pitcher’s win-loss record and a position
player’s batting average when i make assessments. it’s good to know that
it isn’t just me.”

You don’t hint even a bit that you’re being sarcastic.

some_numbers
3 years 11 months ago

sorry if i set the bar too high for you.