White Sox Notes: Danks, Williams, Contracts

Here are a few items about John Danks' five-year, $65MM extension with the White Sox, which was officially announced today…

  • Danks has a full no-trade clause for the first year of his contract, reports MLB.com's Scott Merkin.  Danks will have partial no-trade protection for the remaining four years, able to block deals to six teams.
  • The extension "really did come out of nowhere," Danks told media (including CSN Chicago's Chuck Garfien) during a conference call today.  "Obviously, there was a lot of trade talk, and you can’t help but wonder and think…But I think I kind of took the attitude that until something happens I was going to prepare to be with the White Sox. Fortunately, this came along and I couldn’t be happier.”
  • As Garfien notes, this is the first time the White Sox have ever given a pitcher a five-year deal.  Owner Jerry Reinsdorf prefers to keep pitchers on contracts of three years or less due to concerns about health and consistency.
  • From the same conference call, GM Kenny Williams said his comments earlier this month about the White Sox beginning a "rebuilding" phase were misconstrued.  "We are still in win mode,” Williams said. “But at the same time that you’re in win mode, you can be in a little bit of a rebuilding phase, and I tried to articulate that, although I guess that message got lost after I said we were rebuilding. I tried to articulate that it wouldn’t be dominoes falling in terms of a true rebuilding because we have too many good veterans, and veterans looking to bounce back.”


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184 Comments on "White Sox Notes: Danks, Williams, Contracts"


Eric Foster
3 years 8 months ago

I’m sure as hell no White Sox fan, but the Santos/Molina deal was a huge win for the South Side.
They have a pretty solid core. Their “competitive rebuilding” won’t take very long.

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

Agree on point 1, not on 2. Molina looks like he will be a very good pitcher, but the Sox have a long way to go. Peavy, Dunn, and Rios all have to get back to form or it will be a long few years.

Eric Foster
3 years 8 months ago

I feel like Peavy and Dunn could turn it around…Rios, I’m not so sure of.

Joey Doughnuts
3 years 8 months ago

Peavy is not a problem when he is healthy, it’s BEING HEALTHY that is the problem. Dunn SHOULD be able to turn it around, his track record is too great. Rios…….he worries me a ton.

jwsox
3 years 8 months ago

Agree with one exception peavys contract ends after this up coming season

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

Don’t worry, they’ll be supplementing it by giving Danks 14M after Peavy Leaves.

jwsox
3 years 8 months ago

It’s not like it’s a horrible deal it’s pretty much market value for a good young left hander

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

Really? Wilson got 15M (to Danks 14.25M over his FA years) with much better numbers.

rockfordone
3 years 8 months ago

He’s 32 yrs old.???????????????????

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

I know a lot of 26 year old pitchers, none of which anyone would honestly consider giving that kind of money. Danks is one of them.

If Danks and Wilson were on the same par of pitching levels, you would have an argument. But one is definatively superior.

disgustedcubfan
3 years 8 months ago

I agree. Right or wrong, Danks got market value .  Most teams looking for pitching would have offered that deal.

rockfordone
3 years 8 months ago

Anything will be better last year. They will improve. Can’t go any lower

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

They are without Jackson and Buehrle. Plus they traded their closer. Yeah I think it can get worse.

disgustedcubfan
3 years 8 months ago

Detroit also will have Fister and Delmon Young for the full year, plus whoever they sign in January.
I also think it can get worse than the 16 games out last year.

Joey Doughnuts
3 years 8 months ago

If you assume none of Danks, Rios, Beckham, Rios, and Dunn bounce back. And I think Chris Sale in the rotation will surpass anything Jackson did for us last season. I think this team will still hover around the .500 mark next year.

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

If all of those players bounce back and Sale has a good year, then they will likely do better. I’m a betting man, and I wouldn’t put money on that. I can see Rios, but something is really wrong with Dunn.

Joey Doughnuts
3 years 8 months ago

I’m not betting their do better next year either, especially if Kenny ends up trading Quentin and Floyd and Thornton. But even if just Dunn and Danks bounce back, you are talking 5-7 wins right there.

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

Yeah, and you’re guaranteed to lose 3-5 wins from other players being missing or having injuries, or off years. That logic never works out.

Jays fans are the worst for that. They think they’ll get a few more wins because Litsch will be healthy and Overbay/Wells will bounce back, and then niether happens, more players get injured and the team loses more games.

Dunn returning to form would be huge though. Its a big wild card.

Joey Doughnuts
3 years 8 months ago

I’m talking about it being a wash between some players bouncing back, and some players being traded. This is not an old team where the core of the group should expect decline. This is a young team that should only see improvement, outside of Konerko and AJ. This team is likely destined for 72-78 wins next year. If ALL the players bounce back, and we DON’T dump our veterans in a rebuilding effort, this team could win around 90+ games, but the chances are pretty damn slim.

disgustedcubfan
3 years 8 months ago

The White Sox have to slash payroll, they have Rios, Dunn, Peavy contracts for close to 100 million dollars, the farm system is the worst in baseball, attendance is dropping every year, and the GM has no idea of what to do next. 
The “competitive rebuilding” may take a while.

Joey Doughnuts
3 years 8 months ago

Rios, Dunn, and Peavy won’t even combine for HALF of the $100M you claim. They will make $43M next year combined. Yes, the farm system is awful, yes attendance is and will be a problem (although I am pretty sure they have always remained in the top half of baseball), and to say the GM has no idea what to do next is not fair at all. This team could easily be competitive by 2014. Don’t forget the AL Central is no powerhouse division. 

disgustedcubfan
3 years 8 months ago

100 mill for the entire contracts. I should have worded it differently.

Joey Doughnuts
3 years 8 months ago

$103M, yes, but that’s spread out over 7 years (plus 2 buyout years). So that’s an average of 14.7M a year. Terrible, sure, but at least they are spread out some.

disgustedcubfan
3 years 8 months ago

3 calendar years. Rios has 3 years left, Dunn has 3 more years and Peavy has 1 with a 4 million dollar payout.
By the 2015 season, the Sox will be rid of those contracts.

Joey Doughnuts
3 years 8 months ago

I mean like 7 seasons worth of play. You know what I’m getting at? Like in 2012, we will get 3 seasons from them because we are getting 3 separate values. Either way, we agree that these guys are money sucks. (Well, Rios is for sure. Peavy is good when healthy, and I think Dunn will bounce back for sure)

disgustedcubfan
3 years 8 months ago

3 calendar years. Rios has 3 years left, Dunn has 3 more years and Peavy has 1 with a 4 million dollar payout.
By the 2015 season, the Sox will be rid of those contracts.

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

Wow. So you only sign pitchers for 3 years, but Danks is the exception? Shoulda stuck to the rule. Can’t see White Sox fans looking back at this contract as a good deal.

sox2727
3 years 8 months ago

right because the deal is a gross overpay for a bad 26 year old pitcher…

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

Not a bad pitcher. Take out the first year, and its a 14.25 average salary. Thats about what Roy Halladay made at the same age.

Joey Doughnuts
3 years 8 months ago

Why would you eliminate the year in which he makes $8M? Because it hurts your argument? His AAV on this contract is $13M. His worst full season in the bigs was 2009, when he put up a 2.9 WAR and was worth $13.1M. Assuming he remains healthy, he is a LOCK to outperform his contract.

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

The year he makes 8M is his arbitration year, it does not reflect his free agent value.

Again this WAR to contract value scale is warped. By that logic Halladay and Lincecum should make 50 million each.

Joey Doughnuts
3 years 8 months ago

Yes, they should. But they won’t because there is an “invisible ceiling”, if you will, for player contracts. One day we MAY get to the point where players make $50M a year. But until we do, no MVP-type player will ever get paid what he is technically worth (assuming he dominate each year). 

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

Ahhh, now this is my favorite argument of all. Danks deserves 14M, and Halladay deserves more than the entire Rays Payroll. Maybe its time to stop and think about whether this pay scale of yours is completely accurate.

Joey Doughnuts
3 years 8 months ago

This is Fangraphs bro, not some crazy numbers we are all making up . Take the time to check out that website, you might learn a thing or to.

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

I think you need to take the time and actually look at fangraphs honestly. Is this really giving out accurate information?

If it is saying halladay should make 50M (more than the rays entire team) do you really think this is a working system?

No. Because for some reason fangraphs has created an entire wave of people like you who think they are perfect and snort at anyone who questions their bizarre formulas and questionable methodology.

Joey Doughnuts
3 years 8 months ago

See, you seem to be operating by taking the best players in baseball, looking at their salary, and saying “Well, that must be what they are worth”, and then working backwards from there. Whereas Fangraphs does the opposite and takings a replacement level player’s worth and works up. The people who make their formula’s are much smarter than you or I.

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

Take a second to look at the formula’s. Trust me, high school programmers could have come up with that stuff.

Market value is determined by…the MARKET. Using that as a basis for value is only the foundation of economics. Fangraphs works backwards.

And surely someone at fangraphs who are “smarter than you and I” could see the obvious flaw in a model that analyses replacement players values, and extrapolates upwards (linearly). Where else in society is that ever done? Do we extrapolate the value of large houses based on the increased square footage of small houses? Do we extrapolate the value of powerful cars based on the price and horsepower of cheap cars? If its nonsense in the real world, why does it make sense in baseball?

This is why it only works for fans. Because MLB clubs have stats guru’s who can asily infer that this nonsense is useless.  

Phillies_Aces35
3 years 8 months ago

He’s not great but he’s a very solid pitcher worth locking up with some good years ahead of him. He’s not the guy you DON’T make the exception for. If anything, he’s a guy you want post rebuilding.

Joey Doughnuts
3 years 8 months ago

Actually, Buehrle was the exception when he signed a 4 year deal in 2007.

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

Buehrle is the kind of guy who would be the exception. Not Danks.

sox2727
3 years 8 months ago

Since the start of the 2008 season Mark Buehrle FIP: 3.94, 4.46, 3.90, 3.98.  John Danks FIP: 3.44, 4.59, 3.70, 3.82.  Mark Buehrle also never posted a FIP below 4.00 in his first 4 years as a starter

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

FIP is a useless stat, it drives me nuts to see people use it. Its only based on walks, SO, and HR.

lolpods
3 years 8 months ago

but ERA is like, so awesome.

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

ERA is the definition stat. A pitchers job is to allow as few runs as possible. Of course it has problems (notably, small sample sizes, ranges of opponents, infield players, ballpark, etc), but it is still usefull (though it requires careful use).

FIP on the other hand uses SO, BB, and HR, while completely bypassing the most important aspect to scoring runs (hits). There are tons of high strikeout players who have great FIP’s, but bleed runs. Brandon Morrow is a great example.

shysox
3 years 8 months ago

For Christ’s sake, seriously? Every comment you have made on this post has been completely invalid and you’ve just made another one. Stop it.

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

No, its just you guys. Ever notice that the commentators and GM’s, and coaches in interviews hardly ever come out and talk about WAR or FIP?

Its just crazy stats the fans made up because baseball fans love stats. FIP is the worst of them all.

FIP = (13HR + 3BB – 2SO)/IP + 3

Thats how they calculate it. Does it have any logical reason? Nope. Just something only the people drinking the fan graphs cool-aid will enjoy.

Joey Doughnuts
3 years 8 months ago

It’s because those are the 3 100% pitcher independent stats. The idea is that you do no involve the defense at all. You could have an incredible defense, or you could have a little little team behind you, and your FIP will be the same (minus HR that are robbed, I suppose)

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

I know thats the idea, I’m saying its wrong. You can’t truly analyse a pitcher while missing how many runs he lets in and how many hits he gives up.

You “could” have an increadible defense, or a really bad one. But 95% of defences make 95% of the same plays. Its a very small factor.  

Joey Doughnuts
3 years 8 months ago

I’m not saying I have ever used FIP to compare pitchers, I am explaining to you it’s value.

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

Wasn’t it you who showed me Danks and Buerhle’s FIP numbers over the last 4 years (I apologise if it was not)?

If you don’t use FIP to compare pitchers then we are in agreement.

Joey Doughnuts
3 years 8 months ago

No, it wasn’t me.

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

Sorry, never mind. I apologise.

sox2727
3 years 8 months ago

can you draw him a picture so he can conceptualize it?

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

You guys don’t listen. I could argue that goalies in hockey should be defined by a stat that only uses PIM’s, and passes because those are the only ones completely in the goalies control. Thats true, but its missing a heck of a lot of information that is very useful (even if its not 100% in the goalies control).

Joey Doughnuts
3 years 8 months ago

How the hell are penalty minutes and passes related to goalies at all? You make less and less sense every time you comment.

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

THEY AREN’T. Just like how strikeouts and Walks don’t mean as much to a pitcher as HITS and ACTUAL RUNS.

You don’t get it. You are judging a pitcher using 3 stats that dont adequately define a pitchers performance!

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

FIP is a useless stat, it drives me nuts to see people use it. Its only based on walks, SO, and HR.

3 years 8 months ago

And Danks is just like Buehrle in every way.

3 years 8 months ago

With all these prosepcts getting traded all over the place, looking at Molina’s numbers makes me wonder.  Did the Sox get robbed, or did we rob the Jays.  Santos wasn’t really the same pitcher the last month, but this was his first as a closer & really first as a full time pitcher.  The year before he was kind of a developing mop up guy.  If you compare the Santos trade to the Andrew Bailey trade, I’d rather have Molina than what the A’s got.  That’s just me.

RiosFan
3 years 8 months ago

Rios i going to be a mvp candidate next year 30 30 300. Avg and 100 rbis

jwsox
3 years 8 months ago

Going by his career mark of bad year- good year- bad year it’s a possibility. As a sox fan all I want is good defense and average. .260 average. .320 obp. 15-20 hrs and 20-25 steals.

sox2727
3 years 8 months ago

@jwsox – I like the optimism, but if you look at Rios’ numbers and take away the huge May in 2010, his numbers with the Sox have been AWFUL.  I have no hope for him.

coldgoldenfalstaff
3 years 8 months ago

I have hope for Rios. It’s obvious Greg Walker rubbed him the wrong way,
and also a lot of other Sox hitters other than Paul Konerko.

Jeff
Manto, the Sox new hitting coach has already talked to the struggling
players and is actually listening to them, unlike the previous staff.

http://espn.go.com/chicago/mlb/story/_/id/7195016/new-hitting-coach-jeff-manto-plan-struggling-chicago-white-sox

Personally,
I think Rios’ problems are all mental/ego based. If he can feel good
about where he is and how the Sox are working with him, he could bounce
back and have a 2010 like season.

As for Dunn, we’ll have to see. There needs to be a 180 in getting in shape and working hard for him to turn things around.

sox2727
3 years 8 months ago

I’m ready to fire Manto already.  I don’t know if you heard his interview after being hired where he said he doesn’t believe in OBP.

coldgoldenfalstaff
3 years 8 months ago

That to me seems like a departure from the Ozzie style of baseball, i.e. get a guy on, bunt/steal and settle for one run.

I’d be glad if they move away from that and focus on scoring runs and good hitting in any situation and not such a focus in getting men on base (OBP) who may not score.

sox2727
3 years 8 months ago

the thing is though the more baserunners you have the more potential runs you can score.  not having ozzie give away outs by bunting stupidly will help

coldgoldenfalstaff
3 years 8 months ago

I have hope for Rios. It’s obvious Greg Walker rubbed him the wrong way,
and also a lot of other Sox hitters other than Paul Konerko.

Jeff
Manto, the Sox new hitting coach has already talked to the struggling
players and is actually listening to them, unlike the previous staff.

http://espn.go.com/chicago/mlb/story/_/id/7195016/new-hitting-coach-jeff-manto-plan-struggling-chicago-white-sox

Personally,
I think Rios’ problems are all mental/ego based. If he can feel good
about where he is and how the Sox are working with him, he could bounce
back and have a 2010 like season.

As for Dunn, we’ll have to see. There needs to be a 180 in getting in shape and working hard for him to turn things around.

disgustedcubfan
3 years 8 months ago

Peavy is going to go 29-3 with a 0.48 ERA as well.

sox2727
3 years 8 months ago

are these simulated starts?

disgustedcubfan
3 years 8 months ago

Yes they are, doing the Mark Prior/Kerry Wood towel drill.

sox2727
3 years 8 months ago

I like the way you think

cachhubguy
3 years 8 months ago

He would have to go 24 – 5 with a 2.40 ERA  to compete with last years MVP.

Red_Line_9
3 years 8 months ago

People need to look at HOW stats are accumulated, not just the end of year tally.  What I saw from Danks last year was a pitcher who got almost no run support early.  Was stellar during the summer…..had a couple of really nasty outings and had a slight injury to deal with.  I would say that last season, given his track record, was a wash.

3 years 8 months ago

DING DING DING! Some fans actually aren’t so clueless. In 3 years in which Danks got 13 or more wins he has managed to do so while managing to hold runners under 5 earned runs and the games in which he lost were all due to lack of consistent hitting. Some pitchers would get all the offense and then our team would come out like duds the next game. Throw last years stats out the window for the White Sox because a lot of players had years under their avg. What’s that tell us? Well, what happened at the end of the year? Didn’t Ozzy get fired. Why did Kenny stay? Because the players that he has around him are still quality players and he is one of the more aggressive GMs that knows how to use the minor league system to get value back and then how to replenish with prospects when the time is right. He did get a a WS in 05.

sox2727
3 years 8 months ago

My problem with Kenny stems from the moves that have been made since July 2009.  Acquiring an already injured Jake Peavy and his huge contract, claiming Rios and his huge contract off waivers, and trading for E-Jack, when the guy he traded was very similar and cost controlled at 1/20 the price.  Prior to 2009 I had no issue with KW, but he has not been doing his job effectively since and I don’t think he should get a pass.

3 years 8 months ago

And what happens if the Sox go on to make it into the playoffs this year with PV holding his own? Or even just having a winning record would that go on to make you happy. PV can bounce back at anytime now (2nd year after that ligament surgery and he should finally be getting most of his motion back + is he a hard worker that will hit his spots). We got the sideshow freak out of town in Ozzy so our players should actually start playing again now that they don’t have to listen to Ozzy and his BS excuses. He wanted out of Chicago why do you think they didn’t wait until the year was over. They wanted to get rid of him that much.

sox2727
3 years 8 months ago

I think Jake Peavy should pitch like the ace he is paid to be.  I would love to think he will bounce back, but I just don’t believe we will see the Jake Peavy that was in San Diego due to the age/injuries that have occured.

3 years 8 months ago

They don’t need him to be the same pitcher as he was. All they need is for him to be consistent and for the rest of the team to play on pace with their overall annual career #s.

Red_Line_9
3 years 8 months ago

I’m not sure we’d have seen the pitcher Peavy was in San Diego regardless of the injury.  That’s a heck of an adjustment…AL to NL and Petco to Comiskey..yes..Comiskey.

Red_Line_9
3 years 8 months ago

I’m still unclear why they didn’t just deal straight with the Cardinals for Colby Rasmus.

Red_Line_9
3 years 8 months ago

The Sox have outlandish ticket prices and seating policies.  I wonder if they’ve hidden behind these contracts as an excuse to justify them.  There’s no reason they shouldn’t have a higher attendance.  But it’s not as if they are truly a large market team.  They in no split the region 50/50 with the Cubs.

sox2727
3 years 8 months ago

the sox attendance problems have numerous factors the overall ticket prices are one of them in the last few seasons

Red_Line_9
3 years 8 months ago

To be fair, the White Sox do offer a pair of completely free tickets for each kid in their Kids Club.  There are also many coupon codes…Monday 1/2 price etc.  It just seems ridiculous to have the Dodgers in town for interleague and have 15,000 in the park.  They’d be better to give the tickets out than have the seats empty.  Empty seats don’t buy $7 hot dogs.

Red_Line_9
3 years 8 months ago

I think the Sox are still counting on too many rebounds, which aren’t impossible, of course.  But that team last year was right at .500 and stunk the joint up for quite awhile.  There will likely be rebounds and some natural regressions.  I’d still like to see them add a starter and leadoff hitter. All in all, they look good enough to compete in a division that isn’t the strongest.  They just can’t have another early season doom like they had last year.  It’s actually amazing that they ever sniffed .500 after that.  It’ll be interesting to see if Robin Ventura can manage a pitching staff any better than Ozzie did.

The White Sox might never rebuild in the sense that a small market team would, but they certainly need to build a stronger minor league system to patch holes with and use as trading chips.

FunkyTime
3 years 8 months ago

I can hear Kenny Williams back peddling about his rebuilding comment from here.

cachhubguy
3 years 8 months ago

It wasn’t misconstrued. It wasn’t taken out of context. He said he was rebuilding. When he found he couldn’t get enough for Danks, he changed his mind. He doesn’t want to say that. OK. We get it.

lefty58
3 years 8 months ago

Honest to God, I hate everything about Kenny Williams and that is really tough on a lifelong Sox fan.

sox2727
3 years 8 months ago

I find it perfectly defensible to despise someone who keeps getting rewarded for under-performing at their job, and acts as if he isn’t

disgustedcubfan
3 years 8 months ago

I can respect that point of view a thousand times more than Sox fans who give him a lifetime pass because of 05.
I think both Chicago baseball teams have had the 2 worst GM’s in all of baseball, over the past 5 years.
At least the Cubs have come to terms with that reality, and begun the massive teardown and rebuild.
I think most Sox fans would like to see the same thing on the south side.

mboss
3 years 8 months ago

Agreed, for the first time in a long time I’m jealous of the cubs front office and approach. I know they are going to build the right way. Although it may be harder/longer now with the new CBA.

I would have liked to see Williams gone when Ozzie left and given the job to Rick Hahn. Williams got a 3-4 year pass after the World series but it’s time to perform now. After horrible trades for Swisher and trading Swisher away as well as Dan Hudson for Jackson et al….Williams is just too impulsive sometimes for the teams good.

sox2727
3 years 8 months ago

I couldn’t agree more.  It’s so disturbing that they have no clear plan.

Joey Doughnuts
3 years 8 months ago

Just because you don’t know their plan doesn’t mean they don’t have one. 

sox2727
3 years 8 months ago

How can you rationalize the things that have been done in the last month and say that there’s a clear plan?

Joey Doughnuts
3 years 8 months ago

How can I rationalize the TWO, count them, TWO moves we have made this offseason? Well let’s see….you trade a RELIEVER (Whom you already have a cheaper, younger replacement for) for a young starter who, according to some scouts, could be a future #2 pitcher. Then you resign your 26-year-old ace (to this team). 

THAT is how those moves are rationalized. Both would be moves done for a rebuilding team, and both are moves done for a team that is contending. WE, the fans, really have no idea what direction we are going right now, because neither move is telling, but that doesn’t mean Kenny doesn’t have that plan laid out.

sox2727
3 years 8 months ago

the fact that we don’t know was my point

Joey Doughnuts
3 years 8 months ago

Right, WE do not, but I think it’s unfair to say that Kenny is sitting in his office with no plan of direction. Don’t forget he OFTEN uses the media as a mouthpiece to keep his dealings under the radar. He always makes moves no one saw coming because he tells the media one thing, and does another. 

3 years 8 months ago

Yeah, must be hard to reason since your team will not win a WS until another 103 years. Kenny is a good GM. Things happen in baseball and can’t always go the way they want it just like it doesn’t always go the way we think it should for players that we expect to be good. That’s why they play the games.

disgustedcubfan
3 years 8 months ago

Kenny is a good GM? I understand blind loyalty, but c’mon.
You think the current state of White Sox baseball is “good”?
What would you consider a bad GM?  Bad trades, horrible free agent signings, dysfunctional clubhouse, terrible waiver claims, bankrupt farm system, disinterested dwindling fan base?
If you like those things, yes, Kenny is good.

Joey Doughnuts
3 years 8 months ago

His big trades tend to be bad, his smaller trades are usually gold. What horrible free agent signings? Unless you honestly think 2011 is an accurate representation of who Adam Dunn really is; which would be highly foolish of you. Dysfunctional clubhouse? Lol, based on who? Joe Cowley? Haha. Terrible farm system, yes. Disinterested dwindling fan base? That’s a reflection of poor team play, not Kenny Williams specifically. 

Kenny is fine GM. We haven’t seen this team be great in a while, but we have also never seen this team be terrible. At the very least, they are always a contender at some point in the season.

3 years 8 months ago

Your a cubs fan! What do you know? You think minor league players are gold.

lolpods
3 years 8 months ago

yeah, i wish we would have never won a world series so this guy would have been fired by now. life sucks.

sox2727
3 years 8 months ago

Hey at least someone out there has the same brain function as Mitch Williams…I mean it’s a good thing the Jays GM doesn’t believe in modern advanced stats…OH WAIT…

sox2727
3 years 8 months ago

damn computer…

sox2727
3 years 8 months ago

ahhhh

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

smooth

sox2727
3 years 8 months ago

feel free to mix in a clue at some point…

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

Well you said it was your “damn computer” but I think this is more of a PEBKAC problem.

sox2727
3 years 8 months ago

wow did you come up with that all on your own?  at what point are you going to realize that your own team’s GM realizes heavily on sabermetrics?  i mean have you have ever heard AA talk before?

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

AA doesn’t go around talking about sabermetrics every chance he gets, as a matter of fact his interviews (like any other GM) tend to focus on the “real” stats (HR, ERA, etc).

However I do know he uses sabermetrics as a reference (Tom Tango is a Jays consultant). I agree with this. It should be something you look at. But to say he relies on it (or “realizes” as you put it) is far fetched.

And even if he did it wouldn’t change my oppinion. It’s not like I am bound to agree with him just because I am a jays fan. Honestly, that is the worst argument ever used in pro sports (the “you’re wrong because the team you cheer for does X” argument).

Joey Doughnuts
3 years 8 months ago

That’s because most of those people in the front office realize the general public is dumb and advanced statistics mean nothing to them because they don’t understand them. Do you really think scientists walk around and talk over people’s heads just because they know more? No, they talk down to be able to communicate with people. Not everyone is like Sheldon Cooper from Big Bang Theory when it comes to talking to people. 

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

lol, this isn’t rocket science. The models are increadibly simple. The writers here use the terms UZN, WAR, FIP constantly. The argument that AA “relies” on these stats, yet doesn’t mention them out of fan ignorance is absurd.

Coaches and GM’s use the terms they use on the field, and the media and fans pick it up. Its how it works in every sport.

Joey Doughnuts
3 years 8 months ago

It’s like talking to a spoon….

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

Or an egg…

In all seriousness you are spent and you know it. You’ve gone into conspiracy theory land to defend FIP. Enough is enough. GM’s and coaches do not use it as much as the real stats. Its a fan made, fan loving stat. But no real connection to baseball.

Joey Doughnuts
3 years 8 months ago

Lol, and again you continue to believe I somehow have been advocating for FIP. And AGAIN I will state that I have never used the stat to compare pitchers. When you saw me talk about FIP was merely explaining to you how the stat works, and why it is valued by some.

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

Ok, but you use the WAR stat dont you? That one is derived heavily from FIP for pitchers.

In fact I know it was you who said WAR was better than ERA.

It is worthwhile to do some research and see how these formulas are calculated. You would be shocked at their simlicity and their non existant connection to reality.

sox2727
3 years 8 months ago

Ya front offices don’t use it, that’s why Bill James is a consultant for the Red Sox…

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

Strawman again. I never said they don’t use it, I said they don’t RELY on it. Baseball teams have consultants on everything. In fact, I bet the Red Sox have over a dozen stats gurus. Congrats, one of them does sabermetrics.

sox2727
3 years 8 months ago

what is this “UZN” you speak of?  See I can be a grammar tool also…

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

That would be spelling, and good job dodging the content of the post (you know, the part where I show you’re completely wrong).

sox2727
3 years 8 months ago

Let’s try this one: A pitcher produces a league average GB%/FB%/HR% and pitches in a pitcher/hitter neutral park. 

In scenario A, his defense is: 1B -A. Gonzalez, 2B- Utley, SS – Tulo, 3B – Beltre, LF – Crawford, CF – Ellsbury, RF – Upton

In Scenario B, his defense is: 1B – Konerko, 2B – Guillen, SS – Betancourt, 3B – Ramirez, LF – Soriano, CF – Rowand, RF – Quentin. 

His ERA (since it’s the best stat and truly measures how good pitchers are) should be the same in both scenarios right?
@lolpods:disqus 

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

If this is an argument for me to read then its a strawman. I never said fielding has no impact on ERA, nor did I ever say that ERA is the best stat.It is the defining stat of a pitchers role. Is has bias like any other, and is in no means perfect. Fielding is one of them. But that is MUCH better than what FIP does (which is leave out useful information).

I would rather have numbers with a slight (but well understood and defined) bias, than ones that don’t use a lot of valuable information.

sox2727
3 years 8 months ago

and you would also choose to not answer a clearly defined question

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

I answered it indirectly, saying fielding is a bias on the ERA stat. Nice to know you read what I said before replying. However since you seem to work better with simple answers, i will give you an easier answer below:

Yes, the same pitcher will have a slightly higher ERA with a lesser fielding team behind him.

sox2727
3 years 8 months ago

I actually read it perfectly, however, I prefer that when I ask a SIMPLE, DIRECT question that it be answered.  I didn’t really think it was that difficult but I guess for some people it is.

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

oh, so you were just being a tool. gotcha

Nice job dodging the content again btw. Really makes you look sharp.

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

Honestly, for me, I feel like I’m talking to people who don’t watch the games.

You act as though the pitcher has no control over hits, yet in Baseball managers make pitching decision based on their batting average splits (a stat derived from hits). And these splits vary HUGE from 0.200 for a good lefty vs lefty’s, to 0.350 for a troubled righty pitcher facing a lefty hitter. This is the stuff that really matters. Comparing pitchers on walks, SO, and HR alone is like missing a whole part of the game.

And the worst part is, the FIP is a huge contributer to the WAR stat. So at the end of the day, both are based on feeble information. So then you take this feeble stat and tell me that Danks is a great pitcher, even though he gave up more than the average number of runs/9 innings, and allowed more hits than innings pitched. Guys hit 0.273 off of him, and only 0.232 off of Wilson. Thats a huge difference, completely ignored by FIP (and by extension, WAR).

Joey Doughnuts
3 years 8 months ago

I love how you are still operating under the assumption that everyone thinks Danks had a better 2011 than CJ Wilson, not that Danks should and will easily earn his $13M AAV contract.

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

Well, whether his calibre of pitcher is worth the 13M is another topic all together. This is about FIP and WAR.

The real stats (ERA, average, WHIP) show Danks to be outside the top starters (#2 type IMO). The dollar value that is worth is another question entirely.

Joey Doughnuts
3 years 8 months ago

Danks IS a #2 starter. You seem to be arguing against points no one is making. Danks is NOT an elite pitcher, he is not ONE OF THE BEST, he is NOT AN ACE. He is simply a very solid #2 starter.

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

Agree

sox2727
3 years 8 months ago

thankfully someone else gets it

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

Coming off a year where he had an ERA over 4, you hand him 14 million dollars for 4 years (not counting the 8 mil 1st year for his arb). 

The Jays did a similiar thing for Halladay, buying his first four years of free agency (age 26ish) at about 13 mil per year. Just to compare. Halladay’s WAR is a lot higher than Danks.

History suggests he’ll stay healthy and consistent. But averaging a 4.03 ERA over his career, does he justify 14M?

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

I’m not a cubs fan. I’m a Jays fan.

I think if you’re paying a guy 14M per season (which only about a dozen SP’s in baseball make), you should be a top 30 pitcher in baseball. Danks is not.  

cachhubguy
3 years 8 months ago

Are you really trying to justify his contract by comparing it to a bad contract?

Casor_Greener
3 years 8 months ago

yeah I’m sure Kershaw will sell out his first 4 years of free agency for 14.5 million.  stop comparing steals that happened in the past (Halladay) as if that’s something that occurs all the time.

Joey Doughnuts
3 years 8 months ago

You are using ERA as the end-all-be-all in your argument. That’s your problem. Look at WAR, not ERA.

sox2727
3 years 8 months ago

i see you graduated from the mitch williams school of pitcher evaluation. 

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

Wilson just got 15.5M, only 1M more than Danks.

You look at the guys who make 13-17M, Weaver, Verlander, King Felix, Wilson, Carpenter…they are all solid #1 guys. Danks is a #2/3 guy.

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

I find it amusing that you accuse me of being intoxicated, and then proceed to roll off completely false facts.

This is CJ’s 3rd year as a starter. Considering that he got a 3.35 and a 2.94 ERA in each year, and had 200+ innings with a WHIP around 1.2 each year, I would say that is a very good sign he can start in the bigs.

Danks has been an MLB starter for 5 years (and really only “solid” for 4 of them). His WHIP has consistently been above 1.2, and an average ERA of 4.03.

Wilson is far and away the superior pitcher, even at the age of 31.

YanksFanSince78
3 years 8 months ago

burnt! he had a good rant though.

Joey Doughnuts
3 years 8 months ago

Since Danks came in to the league in 2007, he has had the 22nd most WAR of all the pitchers in baseball. He is 26 and going to be entering his prime in a couple seasons. He IS going to out perform this contract, and probably rather easily.

Joey Doughnuts
3 years 8 months ago

Wilson is 31. Danks is 26. I’d bet money on Danks having a better contract in which he is 31 by the end of it, whereas Wilson will be 36. 

Joey Doughnuts
3 years 8 months ago

No one is disputing who had the better 2011, but CJ Wilson WILL NOT have better seasons in ages 31-36 than Danks will in ages 26-31. Wilson is due for decline, while Danks is due for improvement.

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

WAR is sporatic. A pitchers job is to stop runs, which ERA displays.

But even if you use WAR, was Danks a top 30 pitcher last season? Top 60?

3 years 8 months ago

Look at his overall logs per game. ER’s in which he had 3-5 runs scored against and compare to runs per game that our offense got him. That actually explains a lot of why his ERA climbed like it did. Danks is around a 3.40 era pitcher overall and could easily get us 13 plus wins every year.

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

I’d take that bet any day. Forget age, one guy can be really dominant and has clearly superrior stuff.

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

It will take a heckova lot of decline from Wilson, and a heckova lot of improvement from Danks to make them equal.

cachhubguy
3 years 8 months ago

Oh, we did not know that. Since he is going to out perform the contract over the next 5 years, it’s great.

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

He has to be better than he has been to do that. Awefully big prediction.

sox2727
3 years 8 months ago

He already has been better than the value of the contract.  For the value of the contract to be a push he has to average 2.5 WAR per year.  In his worst season of his career, he produced 2.9 WAR.

Joey Doughnuts
3 years 8 months ago

As Sox2727 pointed out, no, he doesn’t. He can repeat his 2011 down year, and still outproduce that contract. His down year last year was valued at $14.2M, more than his AAV over this new extension.

sox2727
3 years 8 months ago

ERA displays a teams ability to prevent runs.  Which team had a better overall team defense last year the Rangers or White Sox?  Thus a team with better defense is going to prevent more runs.  If you want to look at true pitcher performance look at FIP.

Joey Doughnuts
3 years 8 months ago

WAR is FARRRR superior to ERA, it just is. 

And Danks was 45th last year. But he is not being rewarded for his 2011 season, he is being paid what he has accomplished and is likely to achieve in the future. 2011 was the exception, not the rule.

Joey Doughnuts
3 years 8 months ago

Not entirely true, all they have to do is revert back to before 2011, and Danks should outperform him quite easily. Otherwise, it will be a pretty interesting race. See you in 5 years.

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

I love that argument. It just is.

WAR is sporatic at best. I think RA Dickey had a higher WAR than Lincecum even though he had a far lower ERA (and is undoubtably the better pitcher).

You can’t definetively say 2011 was the exception. And maybe you should wait a year to figure that out before handing the guy 65M?

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

FIP is a joke, its a mathematical calculation based on SO, BB, and HR. How you can evaluate a hitter without looking at how many hits he gives up is mind boggling.

I agree, some defenses are better. The Rangers infield is very good, but do you really think its the difference between a 2.94 ERA and a 4.33 ERA? I think it has more to do with the pitcher.

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

really? 14.25M is the going rate for a pitcher who gives up an above average number of earned runs, and more hits than innings pitched? huh?

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

2.5 WAR is worth 14M?? by that logic Verlander and Halladay should be paid 50M per year.

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

2.5 WAR is worth 14M?? by that logic Verlander and Halladay should be paid 50M per year.

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

Great logic. If you throw out one players best year and another players worst year they are kind of comparable right? Even though in 2010, Wilson still struck out more, and had a lower ERA…but whatever… 

sox2727
3 years 8 months ago

Do you realize how much Verlander and Halladay make?  I suggest you get some facts and look at the numbers

sox2727
3 years 8 months ago

You clearly choose to evaluate players using an antiquated 20th century thought process so enjoy…

sox2727
3 years 8 months ago

Do you not understand the fact that SO, BB, and HR are the 3 things a pitcher DIRECTLY controls?  It’s not that hard to understand…I guess for some it is though.

sox2727
3 years 8 months ago

Dickey had a higher WAR than Lincecum?  In Canada, is 2.5 > 4.4?  Facts are really troubling some people…

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/2011-pitching-leaders.shtml

This is the other awesome thing about WAR. Everybody calculated it differently. I assume you use the fangraphs version?

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

I used the baseball reference version. Dickey is 4.9, Lincecum 4.4

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

Just because its the only thing the pitcher directly controls does not mean its a good tool for analysing the pitcher. You guys are so drunk on stats you miss the whole “baseball” aspect of it.

Studies were actually done showing the FIP logic is bogus (and that the quality of pitching is a huge factor in determining how many hits are given up).

There is a system to take fielding out of pitchers stats in ERA. Its called errors. Past that the ability of the infield is not nearly as vital as the pitcher (as 95% of 2B can make/not make 95% of the same plays).

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

Just because your stats are newer does not make them supperior. FIP, UZR, and WAR are all sporadic (at best) and completely biased and innacurate at worst.

Do GM’s go out and say they signed a guy because of his good FIP? Nope, they say he’s an inning eater, or he doesn’t give up a lot of hits, or he has a low ERA. Its not the “old” way, its the better way.

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

Halladay 20M, Verlander 20M (starting in 2012).

I’m saying that if Danks is worth 14M for a 2.9 WAR, then Halladay and Verlander *should* make 50M per year (by that logic). You should really read before posting.

Joey Doughnuts
3 years 8 months ago

I didn’t know anyone in this world used WAR from any site BUT Fangraphs. If I remember correctly, Fangraphs (or writers there) developed the WAR stat. It’s the only place people I’ve ever seen reference the number.

Joey Doughnuts
3 years 8 months ago

Lol, you REALLY think ERA has no barring on good/bad fielding? You got to be kidding me….

Joey Doughnuts
3 years 8 months ago

Do you truly believe that scouts and the people who look in to players before they are signed or traded for look at ERA and choose to ignore sabermetrics? Noooo. You are acting like the old men who worked for the A’s in the movie Moneyball. 

Joey Doughnuts
3 years 8 months ago

Yes.

sox2727
3 years 8 months ago

and you should really learn a thing or to about modern day player evaluation before posting

Joey Doughnuts
3 years 8 months ago

Lol,I’mgladyouhaveneverheardofProgressionorRegression.

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

Nope.

Baseball reference has their own method, as does baseball prospectus.

Fangraphs probably likes to hear you say that though.

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

I never said that. I believe they call this the strawman fallacy? Where you set up as though I made an argument I never did?

Fielding plays a role. Is it as big as pitching? Nope.

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

Oh I’m sure its used.  But with a very large grain of salt. And I bet if you asked 30 GM’s whether ERA or FIP is more impoortant, 30 will tell you ERA.

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

Actually I’ve studied it quite significantly. I think the issues with FIP and UZN and WAR are that fans don’t understand enough about how they are calculated. If you really knew, you’d see this for what it is. A crazy idea by a couple of guys.

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

If you want to use that logic then Danks in regressing and Wilson is getting better (looking at 2010/2011). But most people would say its just yearly fluctuations and average them…

If anything Wilsons might be an example of significant progression as it was only his 2nd year as a starter.

Joey Doughnuts
3 years 8 months ago

I know BR does, I am saying I have never seen someone use their version of WAR before, it’s always been used as a reference to Fangraph’s calculations.

Joey Doughnuts
3 years 8 months ago


There is a system to take fielding out of pitchers stats in ERA. Its called errors.”

That was your quote. You claimedERA was a stat in which defensemakes no difference…..

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

Well other numbers are used quite frequently, and in fact they dispute it constantly. Fangraphs is just the preference of the MLBTR bubble.

blueandwhite89
3 years 8 months ago

No, you’re putting words in my mouth.

I didn’t say errors was the perfect system, but it is a system that works fairly well. Like I said 95% of infields make 95% of the same plays. You don’t need much more tinkering beyond errors (even though the fielding bias still exists).