Extension Candidate: Daniel Hudson

The Diamondbacks' Daniel Hudson has a sweet resume for a starting pitcher with one year and 117 days of Major League service time.  He's already racked up 336 career innings (222 last year) and also has 25 wins and a 3.19 ERA.  What are his extension prospects?

Hudson

As I showed in my Madison Bumgarner post, pitchers with less than two years of service time don't get big bucks on extensions.  Hudson and Bumgarner currently have much better bodies of work than James Shields, Ubaldo Jimenez, Brett Anderson, and Wade Davis did, but they probably couldn't push the guaranteed money much past $15MM by signing now.  Instead, Hudson and Bumgarner may attempt to set a new standard for pitchers with between two and three years of service, one year from now.

The two-to-three record holder is Gio Gonzalez, who flew past the standard $30MM extension by getting a $42MM guarantee from the Nationals.  However, Gonzalez is not a good comparison for Hudson, as the former was a Super Two.  Hudson won't be.  The Proformance client will go to arbitration three times, beginning with the 2014 season.  

The typical 2+ pitcher extension is a four-year, $30MM deal, signed by Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Yovani Gallardo, Trevor Cahill, and Ricky Romero.  These deals included one or two club options.  Hudson will match this group in service time after the 2012 season, but he already matches them in overall statistics.  Hudson already has more innings and wins than Gallardo did and more strikeouts than Lester or Cahill.  If Hudson reaches his 2012 Bill James projections, he'll have at least a 185 inning, 11 win, 141 strikeout, and significant ERA advantage over any of those 2+ peers.  Hudson and Bumgarner will likely be in a class by themselves, and if they sign extensions a year from now they ought to be able to raise the bar to $40MM over five years for non-Super Two 2+ pitchers.     

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.


18 Responses to Extension Candidate: Daniel Hudson Leave a Reply

  1. Hermie13 4 years ago

    I dont see how you are writing off Daniel Hudson as a super two guy. Remember that the new CBA raised the number of Super Twos. There is a very good chance Hudson does end up a super two next winter even if he only has 2 years and 117 days service time

  2. Extend him Dbacks and pray to Jobu that he doesn’t get hurt!

  3. bvw87 4 years ago

    If the Dbacks can lock Hudson in to a relatively fair extension (3-4 years) at a cheaper rate ala the way the Rays lock up their young pitchers, that would be huge. The question is, do they have the payroll? They’ve left it too long to get him at a cheap rate, and the longer they wait, the higher the price.

  4. blank38 4 years ago

    To be honest, the Dbacks may resign him to one of these deals, but there’s no way he’ll be in a Dback uniform for the length of the contract. If he signs it, his value will skyrocket and he’ll be traded.

    • James Attwood 4 years ago

      Actually, if he signs an extension, there’s a fair chance he does stick around. The Dbacks need to extend both Kennedy and Hudson, but Cahill is slotted to make $13MM in 2014. Chances are they move him first. With Bauer and Skaggs coming and Bradley not too far behind them, Chaill becomes expendable sooner than Hudson.

      • blank38 4 years ago

        I agree with you on Cahill even though they are club options. But the Dbacks will have to choose between Kennedy and Hudson. They can’t afford to keep both especially when Upton gets 10mil in ’13, 14mil in ’14, then 14.5 in ’15. They’ll keep Upton and maybe Montero, but they’re small market so options are limited.

        • James Attwood 4 years ago

          I think that is going to entirely depend on what they decide to do with Upton moving forward from 2014. Yes, he’s signed through 2015, but if he starts looking like an 18-20/year player, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Dbacks keep their money in the rotation and let him go. He’s the franchise player, but replacing a .300/30/100 outfielder is actually easier than replacing a stud pitcher.

          • Amish_willy 4 years ago

            Is it just me, or is there something wrong with the picture if Cahill’s addition means the Dbacks won’t be able to keep both Hudson & Kennedy together?  

    • Amish_willy 4 years ago

      Don’t really buy that. KT has never been one to trade a guy when his value is sky high, he’s more the type to wait till it drops considerably to decide it’s time to make a move and by that time the return is a fraction of what it could have been.

  5. skollias1 4 years ago

    man if the sox never traded for peavy and jackson… they would most likely have a star studded rotation…. 

    1. Hudson
    2. Danks
    3. Floyd
    4. Richard
    5. Sale

    • Tko11 4 years ago

      What if…

    • Star studded is far-fetched. Hudson qualifies so far. Danks is borderline, But Floyd, Richard, and Sale aren’t.

      • Amish_willy 4 years ago

        Looks like a pretty good rotation to me, one that in 2012 would make about the same as Peavy will on his own. Still can’t believe KW traded for Peavy while he was on the DL. Took on a ton of risk and unsurprisingly it hasn’t turned out terribly well at all.

      • skollias1 4 years ago

        i agree, but danks is a very good pitcher… floyd is ok, sale is going to be great and richard is a very solid lefty

      • jwsox 4 years ago

        hudson has had one year of great sucess he is borderline danks is more established than hudson is….none of them are srat studded  to be honest sale has the highest upside (mauer said he was the only pitcher he was scared to face)

    • jwsox 4 years ago

      im not trying at all to discount these guys but no one knows if they would have had the same success with the whitesox as they did with the pad, and dbacks. Richard is nothing special and was porbably gone from the sox anyway VIA DFA…he just never seemed comfortable with the sox ..Clayton is 100% a petco guy his stats home and away the difference is shocking 

      home/road
      era 2.3/53/
      whip 1.11/1.71
      FIP 3.43/4.98  he is just not good away from petco..

      hudson was widely seen as average by the sox orginization(could be a huge fault of them) but he never seemed to develop a 3rd pitch with the sox..he was a primary fastball change up pitcher..he got his slider going but then lost it  he is essentially a 3 pitch pitcher now but with extreme focus on fastball/ changeup with a slider thrown in.. 3 pitch pitchers dont seem to last very long in top of rotation situations

      • skollias1 4 years ago

        your absolutely right, but i think it just shows kenny williams knew either him or ozzie were gonna get fired soon so he made bold moves that didnt pay off. and your also right about how hudson and richard were not that good with the sox. 

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