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Giancarlo Stanton Rumors
MLBTR’s thoughts and best wishes are with Giancarlo Stanton as he recovers from a frightening incident in which he was struck in the face by a fastball from Brewers right-hander Mike Fiers last night. Stanton has been diagnosed with a laceration and facial fractures, and appears to be done for the season, though the Marlins have said that surgery likely won’t be required. The NL MVP candidate tweeted this morning a heartfelt thanks to baseball fans for the support he has received and, more importantly, announced that he is feeling much better. As Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets, Stanton is still eyeing a comeback this season, which would be a remarkable return.
As we all wish Stanton a speedy recovery, here’s more on the Marlins’ franchise player and the rest of the NL East…
- Dave Cameron of Fangraphs examines what a potential Giancarlo Stanton extension would look like for the Marlins, exploring two different options. Firstly, Cameron outlines a shorter extension that buys out his prime years (ages 27-32) but leaves him a chance at one more significant free agent deal. His second hypothesis is for a Joey Votto-style extension that buys out 10 free agent years on top of his remaining two arbitration years (which Cameron pegs at $30-35MM). Based on WAR/$ and factoring in for some slight inflation, Cameron pegs the shorter deal at $240MM over eight years, though he notes that Stanton would likely feel the need to top Miguel Cabrera‘s $248MM guarantee. The 10-year extension could fetch a $270MM guarantee, which, when paired with the remaining $30-35MM would amount to a 12-year deal worth $300MM+, in Cameron’s estimation.
- While he’s tired of hearing that Daniel Murphy is “more valuable to the Mets than to other clubs,” Matthew Cerrone of SNY’s MetsBlog is beginning to believe it’s true after speaking with six talent evaluators from other clubs. Four officials told him that Murphy would likely be viewed as a super-utility option, while one said that he could see a contending team making a push for him, but more as a secondary option than a primary target. Ultimately, with Dilson Herrera still just 20 years old, Cerrone feels that an extension is probably the best course of action for the Mets. I examined a potential Murphy extension earlier this summer, theorizing that a four-year deal in the $45-48MM range might make sense.
- MLB.com’s Mark Bowman has previously examined the possibility of an Evan Gattis trade to clear room for Christian Bethancourt to serve as the team’s everyday catcher, and he recently got the opinion of several Braves players and coaches on the possibility of Bethancourt starting in the future. Gerald Laird called Bethancourt “the catcher of the future” noting that while it’s understandable to want to keep Gattis’ bat in the lineup, “you can’t sit this kid.” Freddie Freeman praised Bethancourt’s improving approach, while hitting coach Greg Walker and manager Fredi Gonzalez both gave him rave reviews as well. Of course, with the lineup struggling to score as it is, the Braves may want to keep Gattis and place him in the outfield rather than dangle him on the trade market.
The Marlins plan to offer Giancarlo Stanton a deal that would make him the highest-paid player in team history, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reported back in August that Miami would try to lock up its 24-year-old star for the long term, though the team was not necessarily optimistic of reaching agreement. For his part, Stanton tells Nightengale that he is willing to hear offers, but still wants to see “some progression moving forward.” “It will be interesting to hear what they have to say when the time comes,” he said, “but right now, I’m not worrying about it. I mean, we’re still in this season. When this season is over, then we can start thinking about 2015.”
Here’s more from the National League:
- Mets third baseman David Wright will be shut down for the rest of the year but is not expected to require surgery on his left shoulder, Adam Rubin of ESPN.com reported (via Twitter) on in advance of a team announcement. The club says that Wright has experienced persistent inflammation in his left shoulder, which may go some way to explaining his uncharacteristically average .269/.324/.374 slash this year. The star 31-year-old is owed $107MM over 2015-2020.
- Ryan Braun of the Brewers has seen his ongoing thumb issues expand to become a broader problem with his right hand, reports Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Though surgical options have been explored, it was determined that none seemed sure enough to warrant the risk. Since a hot start, Braun has seen his numbers dwindle and then fall off a cliff of late. He is still owed $12MM on an earlier extension next year before his five-year, $105MM pact kicks in starting in 2016.
- Left-handed starter Jon Lester makes sense as a free agent target for the Cubs, argues Jesse Rogers of ESPNChicago.com. He is young and sturdy enough to warrant a significant investment, says Rogers, though Chicago can also choose to forego an overpay given the number of solid arms that could be had on the open market in 2016.
While there have been indications that the Marlins won’t trade Giancarlo Stanton, many writers continue to speculate and discuss the possibility with league sources, and ESPN’s Buster Olney is the latest to talk Stanton with executives from around baseball (ESPN Insider required). Olney spoke to many executives about the potential NL MVP, with one telling him, “No team is going to give up the kind of prospects that is going to be required without knowing they’re going to be able to keep him.” The “kind of prospects” to which that official refers, according to Olney, is a Top 5 type of prospect that can serve as the anchor for the deal in front of many other well-regarded prospects. One executive half-joked that the Dodgers, for example, should open negotiations by simply offering all three of Corey Seager, Joc Pederson and Julio Urias, as the price will be astronomical. (Olney notes that Miami would ask for two of the three at the very least.) Olney names several teams that have the necessary prospects, including the Cubs (Kris Bryant), Cardinals (Oscar Taveras, presumably, as he doesn’t specify) and Astros (Carlos Correa, presumably) among others. And Stanton’s price tag on Stanton’s next major contract? Execs polled by Olney pegged him for a deal in the $250-300MM range, though it seems possible for that expectation to rise if he hits free agency after two more elite and healthy seasons.
Here’s more from the NL East…
- Stanton is the focus of the latest from Grantland’s Jonah Keri, who looks at the historic company with which Stanton has aligned himself early in his career. Keri’s excellent piece points out that Stanton is just the 11th player in history to have 150+ homers through his age-24 season. Additionally, when looking at players who have signed contracts for $180MM+, only two had amassed a higher WAR total than Stanton’s 20.9 (Alex Rodriguez and Albert Pujols). Keri and researcher Michael Bonzagni “scoured” history books to find a player with the same level of skill, youth and success that was traded at this juncture of his career, and the only comparison they could find came back in 1919 — a man by the name of George Herman Ruth.
- Rehabbing Mets starter Matt Harvey will throw a few more bullpen sessions and then be shut down until the spring, reports Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News. He will reach the point of using all his pitches and throwing in a simulated inning setting, but will not face batters until ramping back up. Needless to say, Harvey’s recovery is a critical piece of the club’s plans both in the immediate and long term.
- James Wagner of the Washington Post reports that the legal battle between the Orioles and Nationals over the latter’s television rights with the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network (MASN) will drag on for at least three more months. The O’s have until Sept. 23 to file an amended petition to the New York Supreme Court, and the Nationals and MLB have until Oct. 20 to file a cross petition to dispute the other side’s claims. All parties involved will meet before a judge for a Dec. 15 hearing, Wagner adds.
It remains to be seen whether the Mets will pull off a deal for veteran starter Bartolo Colon, whose fate will be one of the most-watched storylines over the next few days. Over at Fangraphs, Mike Petriello questions why there has seemed to be such little demand for the righty, concluding that he is likely worth his $11MM salary for next season and could well be an important last-minute upgrade for a contender.
Here’s more from the east …
- Recent Red Sox signee Rusney Castillo has obtained a work visa in surprisingly short order and is now clear to play, Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com reports on Twitter. It remains to be seen whether Boston will expose him to MLB action this year, but that is now a possibility with about a month left to go in the regular season.
- The Yankees continue to move forward in a fairly high-stakes attempt to rehab Masahiro Tanaka for a return this year, with success meaning a top-end arm down the stretch and failure potentially meaning a delayed resort to surgery. As George A. King III reports for the New York Post, Tanaka continues to pass hurdles, with colleague Ken Davidson writing that today’s simulated game was a significant step towards a return.
- Recent acquisitions of the Yankees — including Martin Prado, Stephen Drew, and Chase Headley — could hint at a broader strategic shift, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. All of those players have seen action at multiple positions, and Sherman argues that New York could well commit more resources to depth and versatility going forward, essentially putting additional cash behind the strategies of the Athletics and Rays.
- Marlins star Giancarlo Stanton said that some have misconstrued his recent comments regarding his contractual situation, as Juan C. Rodriguez of the Sun Sentinel reports. “There is no answer to what my future is,” he said, explaining that some have over-interpreted his words in either direction. Nevertheless, planned offseason extension discussions are sure to lead to immense scrutiny and speculation.
- Cole Hamels was just the latest Phillies player to publicly show up manager Ryne Sandberg in some manner, as Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com explains. Though the skipper downplayed the incident and said he has control of his clubhouse, Salisbury paints a picture of a tense situation in Philadelphia. As Andy Martino of the New York Daily News writes, this on-field drama is playing out in the midst of broader leadership questions with the club. Martino says that the “fiercely loyal organization” is facing a difficult choice between that loyalty and the evident need for accountability.
Mets first baseman Lucas Duda may or may not fully blossom into a star, but his breakout year has at least forestalled any need for the club to go out and find a new first baseman, writes Mike Petriello of Fangraphs. Here’s more from the NL East:
- Both the Angels and Royals have considered attempting to deal for Mets righty Bartolo Colon, Andy Martino of the New York Daily News reports (Twitter links). At present, however, neither possible suitor is in strong pursuit, with dollars being a major deterrent and the sides not necessarily seeing eye to eye on a return.
- The Phillies will likely give Miguel Gonzalez a September call-up, writes Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com. Gonzalez has thrived recently in the upper minors in a relief role, but that transition away from the rotation means that Philadelphia will need to act quickly to reap any value from the 28-year-old’s three-year, $12MM pact.
- Marlins star Giancarlo Stanton says that he is still not certain that he wants to commit to a long-term deal with Miami, Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports reports. While the club now features a fairly interesting, younger roster with some future promise, Stanton noted that “five months doesn’t change five years.”
- The Braves have shut down reliever Jonny Venters after he came up with a sore elbow when he tried to increase his velocity, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports on Twitter. The southpaw, who had been attempting to return from his second Tommy John procedure, earned $1.625MM in his second year of arbitration eligibility (the same figure as his first) after missing all of 2013. A non-tender certainly appears to be a reasonably likely scenario after the year.
The Mets have not yet tried sending Bartolo Colon through revocable waivers, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal tweets. One reason this is significant is because Colon would represent one possible upgrade for an Angels team that just lost Garrett Richards to what appears to be a significant knee injury. It’s unclear whether Colon would be claimed by another team before getting to the Angels. He’s pitched fairly well this year, despite his age, and he’s set to make a reasonable salary of $11MM in 2015. Here are more notes from around the big leagues.
- At least so far, the David Freese / Peter Bourjos trade has worked out fairly well for the Angels, MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez writes. Freese got off to a slow start but has hit well since June, while Fernando Salas has been steady out of the Angels’ bullpen. Meanwhile, Bourjos hasn’t hit well in a part-time role with the Cardinals (although he continues to provide defensive value), and outfield prospect Randal Grichuk has spent most of the season at Triple-A.
- Calls for the Marlins to trade Giancarlo Stanton may have been premature, writes Rosenthal. Next season, Stanton will still only be 25 and under control through 2016, and the Marlins will have a healthy Jose Fernandez. They might also get more help from young hitters Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna, so they could contend in 2015. While they likely won’t be able to sign Stanton long term before he becomes eligible for free agency following the 2016 season, they might be able to simply wait to trade him, perhaps for established players rather than prospects.
- Padres pitcher Andrew Cashner will make his first start since June 18 on Saturday in Arizona, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune tweets. On his way back from a shoulder injury, Cashner pitched five innings in a rehab start for Triple-A El Paso Monday. Cashner has emerged as one of the top starters in the National League in the past two seasons, and he had a 2.76 ERA with 7.0 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in 76 1/3 innings this year before he got hurt.
Reports have surfaced that the Marlins plan to make legitimate run at extending Giancarlo Stanton this offseason, and MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro hears the same, shedding more light on the situation. According to his sources, the Marlins are serious about not only building around Stanton, but supplementing him by adding a top-flight starter this winter. Frisaro says the 2015 payroll could jump to $75MM, which, while modest relative to the rest of the league, would be about $30MM higher than the team’s Opening Day payroll from the current season. He suggests that the team could make a run at James Shields on the open market, who would front the rotation while Jose Fernandez rehabs from Tommy John surgery.
Suffice it to say, Frisaro gets the impression that the Marlins won’t be trading Stanton under any circumstances this offseason. In fact, he hears that even in the event that Stanton doesn’t sign an extension, the team is comfortable going year-to-year and keeping him as long as possible, then watching him leave in free agency. Miami feels that it has built a team that can be a serious postseason contender in 2015 and 2016 — Stanton’s final two years of arbitration eligibility.
As it stands right now, the Marlins could slot a free agent starter atop their rotation and fill in the remaining four spots with Henderson Alvarez, Nathan Eovaldi, Jarred Cosart and Tom Koehler. Fernandez projects to return around the All-Star break next year, if not sooner, and the team also has one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball — Andrew Heaney — looming in the minor leagues. With rising young talent such as Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna on board, that would seem to be enough to give them a chance to contend in 2015.
Frisaro adds that in the hypothetical event that the Marlins ever do decide to move Stanton, it won’t be solely for a package of prospects. The Marlins would require Major League talent from another club’s roster in addition to top prospects in order to part with their elite slugger. As Frisaro writes: “You’re not going to see a repeat of the Miguel Cabrera trade. It’s not going to be Stanton for six prospects.”
Here’s the latest news out of Fenway Park…
- Ben Cherington said the Red Sox “haven’t gotten to” the stage of exploring a contract extension for closer Koji Uehara, Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe reports, though they’ll broach the topic in October. “He’s a guy who has done a great job for us, certainly one of the guys that we would love to have here. We’ll address that after the season,” Cherington said. As for Uehara, he is “happy and honored they feel that way…Boston has been good for me, but they are one of 30 teams I would consider.” As Abraham notes, there has been speculation that the Sox could extend a one-year qualifying offer to Uehara since they (unlike many teams) can afford spending approximately $15MM on a one-year deal for a closer.
- Jackie Bradley Jr.‘s offensive struggles have gotten to the point that WEEI.com’s Alex Speier is wondering about his long-term future with the Sox. While Bradley hit in the minors and was a heralded prospect entering the season, Speier finds little historical evidence to suggest that Bradley will be able to recover from his poor start and eventually become a decent hitter at the Major League level.
- If the Marlins are unable to extend Giancarlo Stanton and decide to trade the slugger, John Tomase of the Boston Herald feels “no team is better positioned” than the Red Sox to procure Stanton’s services given the number of top-flight prospects in Boston’s farm system. The Sox could add a Major League piece to the mix as well in Yoenis Cespedes, though he’d have limited value to Miami given that he can opt out of his contract after the 2015 season.
- Also from Tomase, the Red Sox are “realistic about their chances” of bringing Jon Lester back in free agency. Though Boston certainly intends to pursue Lester, the team’s reluctance to commit too much money to over-30 pitchers could see the Sox get outbid by another suitor.
As expected, the Marlins are planning to open extension talks with star outfielder Giancarlo Stanton after the season, reports Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. That seems the logical course after Miami reportedly declined to field trade offers on its best player. While the club intends to make a “legitimate” run at locking up Stanton for the future, some within the front office are reportedly not optimistic about the likelihood of reaching agreement.
The powerful 24-year-old is in the midst of perhaps his finest season as a pro, bouncing back after a down year (by his lofty standards). Through 496 plate appearances in 2014, Stanton has slashed .289/.389/.546 with 27 long balls in the books. Stanton’s career line (.270/.361/.537) is a rare one in today’s game. Of course, that kind of production does not come cheap, and his $6.5MM first-year arbitration salary portends big earnings over his final two seasons of arb eligibility.
With two years of team control left after this season, it could be now or never for Miami to lock up Stanton, who would hit the open market before his age-27 season if he is not signed to a long-term pact. (If neither injury nor ineffectiveness intervene, the free agent bidding for his services would surely be a thing to behold.) Sources tell Heyman that the game’s premier slugger is more motivated to play for a winner than to maximize his earnings, but it remains to be seen whether his personal predilections make it more or less likely that he’ll commit to the Marlins.
Of course, teams will be lining up to talk with the Marlins if negotiations do not progress. With Stanton working hard to round out his game and now profiling as one of the league’s better players and biggest stars, he would have no shortage of suitors. Especially given his age, a not-insignificant portion of the value in Stanton’s rights stems from the exclusive right to negotiate a long-term deal. If Miami cannot cash in on that value, then perhaps another club can. But the Fish apparently are not (rightly, in my view) in any rush to make a move.
The Red Sox decided to sell last week after it became clear the odds were against them contending, Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe writes in a long piece on the team’s deadline moves. “No matter how we think the team should be playing or could play over the last 60 games or so, the math was against us,” says Sox GM Ben Cherington. “And if we’re really serious about building another team and trying to become as good as we can as quickly as we can, well, what do we need to find out the rest of the way to do that?” Abraham adds that the Red Sox discussed potential trades with 26 of the 29 other teams, ultimately dealing Jon Lester, John Lackey, Stephen Drew and Andrew Miller. Here are more notes from around the big leagues.
- One player the Red Sox didn’t discuss was Giancarlo Stanton, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com writes. The Marlins were bidders for Jon Lester, but they offered a collection of prospects, and the Red Sox did not attempt to pry Stanton away. Of course, from the Marlins’ perspective, dealing an established star like Stanton might have defeated the purpose of trading for another established star in Lester, particularly since Lester is eligible for free agency after the season.
- When Esmil Rogers entered the game for the Yankees Sunday, he became the team’s 29th pitcher this season, a franchise record, as Katie Sharp of It’s About The Money tweets. That group includes injury cases (Masahiro Tanaka, C.C. Sabathia, Ivan Nova, Michael Pineda etc.), barely used relievers (Bruce Billings, Chris Leroux, Wade LeBlanc, Jim Miller, Cesar Cabral, Jeff Francis) and even former infielder Dean Anna.
- The Pirates sat out of the trade deadline for the second straight year, but the trading season isn’t over, notes Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. The Bucs made two waiver trades in 2013, acquiring outfielder Marlon Byrd, backup catcher John Buck, and first baseman Justin Morneau. After a quiet July trade deadline in 2014, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Pirates dip into the waiver trade market again.
- Pedro Alvarez has lost his job as the Pirates’ starter at third base, Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review writes. The Bucs aren’t likely to move him to a different position (probably first base) until after the season, however. The Pirates acquired infielder Jayson Nix Sunday as an additional option at third, although Josh Harrison will likely receive most of the available playing time there.
- Major League Baseball should consider moving the non-waiver trade deadline to some point in August, John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle writes. The presence of the second Wild Card causes many teams to consider themselves contenders in late July, leading to few sellers on trade market. Athletics GM Billy Beane says that he approves of the current July 31 deadline but adds that there haven’t been many sellers in recent years. Giants GM Brian Sabean, meanwhile, believes the deadline should be changed.
- Players who appear likely to clear waivers and become candidates for August trades include Josh Willingham of the Twins, Alex Rios of the Rangers and Carlos Quentin of the Padres, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports writes. That could mean there could be a reasonable market for teams looking for outfielders, especially if Marlon Byrd of the Phillies and Drew Stubbs of the Rockies also clear. John Danks of the White Sox and Scott Feldman of the Astros (who pitched a complete game today) are among the starting pitchers likely to clear.
- The Dodgers and Brewers had the most interest in Padres reliever Joaquin Benoit, Heyman tweets, noting that Benoit is unlikely to clear waivers.
Zach Links contributed to this post.