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Johnny Cueto Rumors
The Reds’ hopes of challenging in the NL Central were dimmed by several major injuries this year, and this visit from the injury bug was particularly damaging to a team who already faced some big decisions in the offseason. With just over $71MM committed to 10 players on the 2015 payroll, the mid-market Reds may be forced to save some money by moving a starting pitcher. Though Cincinnati’s durable and deep rotation has been a big part of the club’s success in recent years, pitching seems like a natural area for payroll reduction simply due to the fact that three starters will enter their third year of arbitration eligibility.
Two pitchers who won’t be dealt are Homer Bailey and Tony Cingrani. The Reds have already committed to Bailey in the form of a six-year, $105MM extension, and wouldn’t have been likely to move him even if Bailey hadn’t recently undergone forearm surgery. Cingrani has also had injury problems, spending most of 2014 on the DL with shoulder problems. Had Cingrani been able to build off of his impressive 2013 rookie season, the Reds would’ve felt at least a bit better about trading one of their more established starters (Bronson Arroyo wasn’t re-signed last winter in part because the Reds were comfortable with Cingrani).
It’s possible Cincinnati could trade multiple starters, though I’d suspect that the team wouldn’t want to lose too much pitching depth until they know Bailey and Cingrani are fully healthy. The Reds would probably rather not have David Holmberg or Dylan Axelrod as full-time rotation members next year, top prospect Robert Stephenson still needs some seasoning (a 4.74 ERA in 136 2/3 IP at Double-A in 2014) and the newly-signed Raisel Iglesias could still wind up in the bullpen.
The Reds’ other four pitchers are all controlled only through 2015, so the team likely wouldn’t score a truly huge return in a trade but all carry value even as one-year pitchers. The candidates…
Johnny Cueto: The Reds have a $10MM option on Cueto for 2015 that is sure to be exercised given how well Cueto has pitched. After an injury-shorted 2013, Cueto bounced back in a major way by posting a 2.15 ERA, 8.9 K/9 and 3.73 K/BB rate over a league-leading 222 innings.
Cueto’s next contract will be in the nine-figure range, and it’s unclear if the Reds would be willing ink another major extension given how much money has been tied up in recent deals with Bailey, Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips. Cueto would net the biggest return in a trade, though moving their ace would seem to hint that the Reds are punting on 2015, which I doubt they’re prepared to do. On the other hand, the Reds could trade Cueto for Major League parts (such what the Rays and Red Sox received for David Price, John Lackey and Jon Lester before last July’s trade deadline) and use a Cueto deal to reload rather than rebuild.
Keeping Cueto would give the Reds stability at the top of their rotation, and they could still explore dealing Cueto at next year’s trade deadline if they fall out of the race. If they’re contending and wanted to keep Cueto, Cincinnati could then get a compensatory draft pick via the qualifying offer if he leaves in free agency after the 2015 season.
In a recent Insider-only piece, ESPN’s Buster Olney recently explored Cueto’s trade market and raised the possibility that the Reds could clear some payroll space by attaching Phillips, for example, to Cueto in a trade package. With several notable starters available as free agents this winter, Olney believes some teams might prefer trading for a year of Cueto rather than making an expensive multiyear commitment for an ace on the open market. Also, a contending team that potentially loses their ace in free agency (such as if Max Scherzer leaves the Tigers or James Shields leaves the Royals) could look to Cueto as a short-term replacement to keep their rotation strong for another run in 2015.
Mat Latos: Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports recently cited Latos as perhaps the likeliest of the Reds’ starters to be dealt, as both Latos and Cueto can make a case for commanding an extension larger than Bailey’s deal. While Cueto is two years older than Latos, presumably the Reds would be more inclined to extend their homegrown product than they would Latos, who missed part of 2014 with an elbow injury. Latos has a 3.25 ERA in 102 1/3 IP this year, though ERA indicators show that he hasn’t pitched quite that well (3.64 FIP, 4.00 xFIP, 4.08 SIERA) and both his ground ball and strikeout rates dropped significantly below his career averages. The right-hander’s average fastball velocity also dropped to 90.7 mph, down from 92.5 mph in 2013.
The Reds already tested the market for Latos at the trade deadline, so I tend to agree with Rosenthal that if a Cincy starter is moved, it’ll probably be Latos. His declined numbers could be explained by his elbow issues, and if fully healthy, Latos could be a standout front-of-the-rotation starter for several teams. He earned $7.25MM in 2014 in the last year of a two-year extension, and he’ll be eligible for arbitration for a third and final time this winter.
Mike Leake: Another pitcher with a third arb year remaining, Leake will get a raise from his $5.925MM salary in 2014. The right-hander has been a reliable rotation piece over his five Major League seasons, not missing many bats (career 6.1 K/9) but inducing a lot of grounders (49.8% ground ball rate) and eating a lot of innings, averaging 191 IP over the last three years.
Leake comes with the fewest question marks of any Cincinnati starter, lacking the injury histories of Cueto and Latos but also never pitching nearly as well as those two have at their peaks. While Leake’s ceiling in the bigs may never surpass the “solid” level (he has an even 100 ERA+ over his career), this also means that the Reds could extend him at a much lower price than Cueto or Latos. A Leake extension could look something like the five-year, $65MM deal the White Sox gave John Danks a few years ago, as Leake and Danks are decent comparables in terms of age and career numbers to that point in their careers, plus both had one arb year left before free agency.
The Reds put Leake and Latos on revocable waivers in August, possibly in a move to gauge trade interest for the upcoming offseason. I’d guess there’s a better chance Leake stays in Cincinnati than goes, though the Reds will certainly get interest in the durable 26-year-old.
Alfredo Simon: The big surprise of the group, the 33-year-old Simon moved from the bullpen to the rotation as an injury fill-in and wound up making his first All-Star team. Though his performance has very much come back to earth in the second half, Simon still has a 3.48 ERA through 178 1/3 innings on the season despite a middling 5.9 K/9.
Simon is arb-eligible for the third time this winter and he’ll earn a healthy raise over his $1.5MM salary, though the raise will hardly break the bank. Simon’s age and career track record give him a very modest amount of trade value, so it’s likely he stays with the Reds and competes for the fifth starter’s job (or returns to the pen) if and when a rotation spot opens up via trade.
With this variety of available starters and a wide variance in asking prices for each of the four pitchers, many teams could fit as potential trade partners for the Reds under the “you can never have too much pitching” argument. If the Reds look to deal a starter and fill an everyday lineup hole at the same time, they’ll likely target a left fielder or a shortstop as upgrades on Ryan Ludwick and Zack Cozart, respectively. Ludwick has a $9MM mutual option for 2015 but after two negative fWAR seasons, the Reds might instead buy him out (for a deferred $4.5MM) and look for other options.
Using these needs to speculate about trade partners, the Cubs, Diamondbacks and possibly the Indians stand out as teams with a shortstop surplus. The Red Sox have a glut of outfielders and are known to be looking for starting pitching. The Dodgers could finally solve their long-standing logjam in the outfield and, if it meant getting back Cueto or Latos, would be willing to eat a lot of salary on one of their high-priced outfield bats.
As Ken Rosenthal noted (video link), the Reds could employ some gamesmanship with their starters and perhaps leverage them against each other in figuring out which (if any) pitchers they want to sign over the long term. Between these negotiations and waiting for the free agent pitching market to play out, Cincinnati might wait until January or even February to move a starter. At this point, the only thing that seems certain about the Reds’ 2015 rotation is that at least one of Cueto, Latos, Leake or Simon won’t be on the roster come Opening Day.
Photo courtesy of Joy R. Absalon/USA Today Sports Images
The Reds had yet to place any of their starting pitchers on waivers as of Saturday morning, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports in his weekly “Full Count” video. As Rosenthal notes, their waiver status may be a moot point, as each would likely be claimed and subsequently pulled back. More highlights regarding the Reds and the rest of the league below…
- The real drama surrounding the Reds‘ rotation could come this offseason, as Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Mike Leake and Alfredo Simon will all be entering their final year of team control. The Reds will have to decide which, if any, they want to sign to a long-term deal, and Rosenthal notes that they will likely trade “at least” one. Latos is perhaps the likeliest candidate to be dealt, according to Rosenthal, who notes that both Latos and Cueto would command more than Homer Bailey‘s six-year, $105MM contract.
- Rusney Castillo‘s six-year, $72.5MM contract with the Red Sox might not stand as the largest deal for a Cuban free agent very long. Yasmani Tomas is expected to be cleared as a free agent this offseason, and his huge raw power will be highly appealing, even if he is limited to left field, defensively speaking. As Rosenthal points out, Tomas is four years younger than Castillo and is against a crop of weak free agent bats. One executive that spoke with Rosenthal said the only flaw he sees in Castillo is his propensity to swing and miss.
- Rosenthal points back to a report of his prior to the trade deadline in which he had learned that the Nationals were looking for a young shortstop on the trade market. He’s now learned that Didi Gregorius of the Diamondbacks was one of their targets. Washington had planned on playing Gregorius at second base in the near-term and moving him back over to shortstop if Ian Desmond could not be retained. Of course, the club still wants to extend Desmond, who is a free agent following the 2015 season.
While most of the major injuries we’ve seen this season have come on the pitching front, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports (via Twitter) that there could be another significant injury to a hitter. Sources tell Rosenthal that Joey Votto did not make the current road trip with the Reds and is staying back to undergo an MRI on the same knee that he had surgically repaired in 2012. Cincinnati has already lost roughly a month of Jay Bruce as well as two months of Mat Latos, and an extended absence for Votto is the last thing they need to see as they sit seven games back in the NL Central. However, a DL stint does appear to be likely, according to Rosenthal. Here are some more Reds-related items…
- Jeff Sullivan is up in the latest edition of Fangraphs on FOX, and within it, he breaks down the changes that Reds ace Johnny Cueto has made to his two-strike approach. The changes, which have resulted in Cueto more than tripling his rate of called third strikes, have vaulted Cueto into the elite ranks of Major League pitchers and made him the clear favorite for the NL Cy Young Award, writes Sullivan.
- Cueto knows that he’s dominating this season and told Hal McCoy of the Dayton Daily News that he considers himself the best pitcher in baseball right now. Said Cueto (through a translator): “I would say, yes, definitely yes. My numbers have to talk for me. Every time I go on the mound I do my job. And I do my job to get the best numbers.” Cueto has a no-brainer $10MM club option this offseason and would then hit the open market entering his age-30 season in 2016. If he can continue on this trajectory, suffice it to say that he’ll be one of the wealthiest players in baseball history.
- Former Major Leaguer Jose Cruz Jr. tweeted earlier this week that he saw right-hander Jason Marquis throw a bullpen session for the Reds and Padres (hat tip: Chris Cotillo). Marquis was throwing 88-90 mph, per Cruz, which is impressive given that Marquis is just nine and a half months removed from Tommy John surgery on July 30 of last year. It was reported last September that Marquis didn’t plan to retire after his Tommy John surgery and could sign a minor league deal come April or May.
MLBPA Executive Director Tony Clark doesn't expect the Collective Bargaining Agreement to be reopened before its 2016 expiration to address issues with the qualifying offer system, writes Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle. "It’s very difficult to open up a CBA," said Clark. "Suffice it to say, if there are issues during the course of any agreement, we continue to have discussions that may not require the CBA be to opened up, making sure that whatever the concerns are, whatever the issues are, and if they can be discussed in some more formal fashion, so be it, but more often than not, come 2016 when we have an opportunity to sit down is when we’ll do so." Last night, Aaron Steen asked MLBTR readers about the qualifying offer and nearly 47% want to tweak the QO while 25% want to eliminate it entirely.
In National League news and notes on Oscar Sunday:
- With the ink barely dry on Homer Bailey's six-year, $105MM contract extension, the Reds will be in the same situation with starters Mat Latos, Mike Leake, and Johnny Cueto next year. Owner Bob Castellini told the Cincinnati Enquirer's John Fay the team wants to retain all three. "We’re going to try to sign all these guys," Castellini said. "Whether we can or not, I don’t know. I don’t have a crystal ball."
- Castellini also told Fay he is not pleased with the media's coverage of the Reds' offseason because it has had an adverse affect on the team's revenues. "That season-ticket number is the most important number we can generate," said Castellini. "We knew we wanted to sign Homer. We knew we were going to make some other commitments. It’s not that we didn’t look. It gets written in such a way – 'Well, the Reds aren’t doing anything' – that really does affect people buying season tickets." Castellini provided Fay with details of the club's revenue generated through ticket sales, sponsorships, and the national TV contract adding neither he nor any of the other principal owners or investors have ever taken money out of the franchise.
- Last month, the Braves gave Jason Heyward a two-year, $13.3MM contract. In two years, the perfect storm of baseball's economics, Heyward's age, and actions taken by the Braves will set the 24-year-old up for a huge payday on a likely barren free agent market, according to Mike Petriello of ESPN.com in an Insider-only piece (subscription required).
- With mixed reviews to date, Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez made his Spring Training debut yesterday. Phillies GM Ruban Amaro Jr. was upbeat about what he saw, reports MLB.com's Todd Zolecki. "He probably threw better with his stuff as far as his velocity and breaking ball since he's been in camp," Amaro said. "I was encouraged that his stuff was better than it had been in his sides. And hopefully it will continue to progress in a positive way." Pitching coach Bob McClure added (as quoted by Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Inquirer), "I saw a very competitive (guy), and that is what I was really hoping for. And he might be one of those guys that’s not the best practice player, but you put him in a game and he competes." Reports surfaced last week Gonzalez could open the season in the minors.
- Solid pitching will be key to any improvement the Rockies hope to make this season. ESPN's Jerry Crasnick focuses on young starters Jonathan Gray and Eddie Butler while the Denver Post's Troy E. Renck examines the Rockies' adherence to pitch counts to protect their starting rotation and the corresponding reliance on their bullpen, which could be called upon to record 10 or 11 outs every game.
A few notes from the Queen City…
- John Fay of The Cincinnati Enquirer has the breakdown of Johnny Cueto's new contract. The right-hander will earn $3.4MM in 2011, $5.4MM in 2012, $7.4MM in 2013, and $10MM in 2014. A $10MM club option for 2015 can be bought out for $800K.
- GM Walt Jocketty told Fay that the team and Edinson Volquez are still talking about a multi-year contract extension, and that he's confident they'll get at least a one-year deal done before an arbitration hearing (Twitter link). We first heard that the two sides were talking about a deal late last week.
The Reds and right-handed pitcher Johnny Cueto signed a four-year contract extension with a club option for 2015, the team announced (on Twitter). The deal is worth $27MM, tweets Enrique Rojas of ESPNDeportes.com.
Cueto was arbitration-eligible, and he and the Reds were about $900,000 apart on their submitted salary figures, per our Arbitration Tracker. The right-hander was seeking $3.9MM, while Cincinnati offered $3MM.
The deal buys out all three years of Cueto's arbitration eligibility, plus one year of potential free agency. Rumors of the Reds and Cueto having preliminary talks about a long-term extension surfaced in early December but were relatively quiet thereafter, as Cincinnati turned its focus on extending Jay Bruce and buying out Joey Votto's three years or arbitration-eligibility.
It's been a busy and expensive offseason after a resurgent 2010 for the Reds, who've committed a combined $151MM in salaries — the majority of which went to Votto, Bruce and Cueto — tweets Fay. Edinson Volquez remains unsigned after he and the Reds exchanged arbitration figures.
The 24-year-old Cueto posted a 3.64 ERA with 6.7 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 in 185 2/3 innings last year. He has started at least 30 games for three consecutive seasons and has career marks of 7.3 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 and a 4.27 ERA.
Today is the deadline for players and teams to submit arbitration figures. Let's keep track of those figures here, with the latest updates on top. You can track all of the players that avoided arbitration today here.
- MLB.com's Jane Lee tweets that Craig Breslow filed for $1.55MM, but the Athletics countered with $1.15MM.
- Zachary Levine of The Houston Chronicle has some figures for the Astros. Wandy Rodriguez filed for $10.25MM, Hunter Pence for $6.9MM. The team countered with $8MM and $5.15MM, respectively.
- Bob Dutton of The Kansas City Star tweets that Billy Butler filed for $4.3MM while the Royals countered with $3.4MM.
- Hank Schulman of The San Francisco Chronicle tweets that Javier Lopez filed for $2.875MM and Andres Torres for $2.6MM (Twitter link). The Giants countered with $2MM and $1.8MM, respectively.
Full Story | Comments | Categories: Angel Pagan | Baltimore Orioles | Billy Butler | Cincinnati Reds | Craig Breslow | Darren O'Day | Delmon Young | Edinson Volquez | Francisco Liriano | Frank Francisco | Hong-Chih Kuo | Houston Astros | Hunter Pence | James Loney | Jason Frasor | Javier Lopez | Jered Weaver | Jeremy Guthrie | Johnny Cueto | Jose Bautista | Josh Hamilton | Kameron Loe | Kansas City Royals | Kevin Slowey | Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim | Los Angeles Dodgers | Luke Scott | Mike Napoli | Milwaukee Brewers | Minnesota Twins | New York Mets | Oakland Athletics | R.A. Dickey | Rickie Weeks | San Francisco Giants | Shaun Marcum | Texas Rangers | Toronto Blue Jays | Wandy Rodriguez
On this day 15 years ago, Blue Jays skipper John Farrell signed with Mariners as a free agent. Let's take a look at today's links..
- Mychael Urban of CSNBayArea.com applauds Athletics GM Billy Beane for upgrading the club's bullpen this winter.
- Leo Nunez's $3.65MM 2011 salary is the most ever for a Marlins reliever under owner Jeffrey Loria, tweets Juan C. Rodriguez of the Sun Sentinel. The previous watermark was Armando Benitez's 2004 salary of $3.5MM.
- The Rangers are looking to fill their final roster spot, writes MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan. Rangers CEO Chuck Greenberg also says that the club plans on extending the contract of GM Jon Daniels this winter.
- The Pirates have made a run at Carl Pavano, but the hurler prefers the Twins as they are a contending team where he can be the ace, writes Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated.
- Reds GM Walt Jocketty told Mark Sheldon of MLB.com that he is working to sign arbitration eligible players Edinson Volquez, Johnny Cueto and Bill Bray before the Tuesday deadline.
- The Cardinals have to get a deal done with Albert Pujols, writes Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com.
Here's the latest from the Queen City, courtesy of The Cincinnati Enquirer's John Fay…
- With Arthur Rhodes set to join the Rangers, the Reds now have money to spend elsewhere, including on a shortstop, lefty hitting outfielder, and potentially a rehabbing starting pitcher.
- Assistant GM Bob Miller told Fay that the Reds have not had any recent conversations with Brandon Webb.
- Miller also confirmed that there have been no further talks with Johnny Cueto about a long-term extension. Earlier this month we heard that the two sides had some preliminary discussions about a contract.
- "That's not going to happen quick," said Miller when asked about an extension for NL MVP Joey Votto. The two sides have had some talks, however.
- Miller confirmed the team's interest in Scott Podsednik.
The Reds have locked up two players and discussed a potential extension with a third, but GM Walt Jocketty isn't stopping there. He has had preliminary discussions with Johnny Cueto's representatives about a long-term deal, according to John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer.
Like teammate Joey Votto, Cueto is arbitration eligible for the first time this offseason. The 24-year-old posted a 3.64 ERA with 6.7 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 in 185 2/3 innings last year. He has started at least 30 games for three consecutive seasons and has career marks of 7.3 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 and a 4.27 ERA. Over the course of his career, Cueto has induced an equal amount of air and ground outs (40.0% fly ball rate and 40.6% ground ball rate).
If the Reds extend Cueto it wouldn't be surprising to see them commit about $16MM for his three arbitration years, 2011-13. The right-hander is set to hit free agency after the 2013 season.