Juan Encarnacion Rumors


How Reasonable Are Jeff Francoeur's Demands?

In a move that has amused those who follow the New York Mets closely, Jeff Francoeur has gone public with his demands to be traded following New York's decision to platoon him with young outfielder Fernando Martinez.

Despite a season line of .241/.294/.385, Francoeur apparently believes a major league team would play him regularly at a position, right field, that averages production of .271/.344/.447. Indeed, Francoeur's line is well below the MLB average at second base (.266/.331/.393).

But we have yet to see how Francoeur's demand for a trade stands up to history. It isn't easy to find comparable performance among right fielders in recent years, and it's even harder to find any who were traded after performing as poorly as Francoeur.

Since 2000, just 31 of the 165 right fielders to amass at least 300 plate appearances posted an OPS+ below 100. Of those 31, only four checked in lower than Francoeur's 2010 OPS+ mark of 82: Richard Hidalgo's 2005 (81), Jeromy Burnitz's 2002 (80), Austin Kearns' 2008 (67) and Jeff Francoeur's own 2008 (72).

Kearns followed his 2008 with a similarly poor 2009 before the Nationals let him walk after last season. Burnitz followed 2002 with a half-season of a 139 OPS+ for the 2003 Mets, earning a trade to Los Angeles for Kole Strayhorn, Jose Diaz and Victor Diaz. Hidalgo never played in the majors again, and Francoeur followed his 2008 with a half-season of 68 OPS+ hitting in 2009, earning a trade to the Mets for Ryan Church.

In other words Jeff Francoeur is the only one from that group to be traded for anything at all. Incidentally, four of the 31 player seasons in right field below 100 OPS+ are from Francoeur. Only three others are on the list more than once: Juan Encarnacion (three times), Alex Rios (twice), Hidalgo (twice) and Burnitz (twice).

Encarnacion is an instructive comparison. His career OPS+ of 97 is better than, but similar to, Francoeur's 91. Encarnacion had additional value because he lacked a platoon split (amazingly, his OPS against both lefties and righties was .758) and had the ability to play center field.

In the middle of an 84 OPS+ season in 2004 at age 28, a year after he posted a 97 OPS+, the Marlins acquired Encarnacion as part of a six-player deal from the Dodgers. He went on to start 46 of Florida's remaining 58 games. His salary ($3.6MM) was roughly equivalent to the $5MM Francoeur earns in 2010.

So there is precedent. It happened one other time.

Among those under 100 OPS+ in right field, Alex Rios had a 96 OPS+ last year when the White Sox took him from the Blue Jays and agreed to pay his entire salary (at $61MM, many times as much as remains on Francoeur's deal). But Rios had three seasons of 120, 122 and 112 OPS+ in 2006-2008 under his belt, success Francoeur hasn't seen since his half-season debut in 2005.

Overwhelmingly, the players performing as poorly as Francoeur, or even demonstrably better, are simply let go, often never to surface again. Trot Nixon's 96 OPS+ in 2006 represented his last season as a regular player. So did Danny Bautista's 85 in 2004 and Derek Bell's 98 in 2000. Jose Guillen's 89 in 2000 got him sent back to the minor leagues by Tampa Bay, then released.

There's also that pesky question: who would Francoeur replace in another team's regular lineup? Of the 20 right fielders in MLB who have played more than half their games in right field this year, Francoeur ranks dead last in OPS+ with 82. The four closest to him? Jay Bruce (96), Ben Zobrist (98), Hunter Pence (102) and Ichiro Suzuki (107). It is safe to say Francoeur won't be replacing any of those players. He'd make a decent platoon partner with Bruce, but... right. Platooning led Francoeur to demand a trade in the first place.

In short, the answer to the title of this piece is: not reasonable at all. Not reasonable in light of his 2010 performance, not reasonable in terms of other right fielders, not reasonable comparatively through recent history.



John Mozeliak Chat On MLB.com

Cardinals GM John Mozeliak chatted with fans over at MLB.com.  Let's dig out the hot stove info.

  • Mozeliak seems open to talking extension with Kyle Lohse at some point during the season.  Lohse has a 3.79 ERA in seven starts.  Less than 3% of his flyballs are leaving the yard, a trend that doesn't figure to last.  But for less than $5MM, who's complaining?
  • Mozeliak reiterated that the Cardinals have no interest in Barry Bonds.
  • Trade talks "could be exciting" come July.
  • Sadly, Juan Encarnacion is not likely to play baseball again.



Disgruntled Encarnacion Could Be Moved

Cardinals right fielder Juan Encarnacion is not happy about his recent lack of playing time.  The St. Louis Post-Dispatch mentions that Encarnacion has spoken to his agent about potential trades.  Besides Encarnacion, the Cards have Rick Ankiel, Chris Duncan, Jim Edmonds, Ryan Ludwick, and So Taguchi competing for playing time.  There's really not a clear choice to demote, either.

The Encarnacion signing back in '05 has a lot in common with the Cubs' signing of Jacque Jones.  Both mediocre right fielders signed at about three years, $15MM.  Both signings were of the "well, we gotta sign somebody" variety.  And both signings, by their second year, have come to be viewed mostly as burdens.

Encarnacion makes about $1.45MM more this year plus $6.5MM in '08.  I imagine such a contract would clear waivers.  Any contenders looking for a mediocre outfielder?  The Twins might make sense.  Viva El Birdos lists the Tigers and Angels as other possibilities.     




Molony's Latest: Willis, Encarnacion, Sowers

MLB.com's Jim Molony has his daily rumor summary up; check it out.  New rumors:

  • Molony's sources say the Marlins are now listening to offers for Dontrelle Willis.  Might as well - what if the Mariners decide to offer Adam Jones?  Many folks remain enamored of Willis's talent, if not his recent numbers.
  • The Cardinals could shop Russ Springer or Juan Encarnacion.  Springer is unlikely to be traded, however, because he has his son going to a specific school in St. Louis and the Cardinals respect that.  Encarnacion is hitting decently at .293/.329/.471; it might be high time to unload the $6.5MM he's owed next year.
  • Something seems to be going on in Cleveland; GM Mark Shapiro has been in Buffalo watching Jeremy Sowers and Aaron Laffey.  Laffey was nearly called up recently.  Not much talk about trading Sowers previously, but he might be an interesting chip.  He's similar to Kevin Slowey. They might find success in the NL.
  • The Tigers sent scouts to watch Joe Koshansky and Ian Stewart of the Rockies (rumor originated in the Denver Post).  Not sure how those two teams match up, but a cheap Koshansky might be worth a look for Detroit at first base next year.  Unless Carlos Guillen moves over.










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