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Archives for November 2009

Olney On Halladay, Wagner, Bay

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In his ESPN.com column today, Buster Olney notes that many teams are waiting to get involved in the free agent market, meaning there might not be many moves made in the next couple weeks. Here are a few other highlights from Olney's blog:

  • One executive tells Olney that the Blue Jays' chances of moving Roy Halladay are no better than 50/50. Another source suggests that the Jays could have had three top prospects for Halladay last summer, whereas now they could probably only land one star prospect and a second with some major-league potential.
  • Billy Wagner's Type A status could make him undesirable to clubs not wanting to give up any draft picks to sign him. However, Wagner could make himself more attractive by lowering his contract demands. If a team thought they were getting a potentially elite closer at a discount, they'd be more willing to part with a draft pick.
  • Olney hears from a pair of execs that the Red Sox will continue to take the Jason Bay negotiations slowly, and that the team would ultimately prefer to sign Matt Holliday.
  • The Padres likely won't want to pay Kevin Correia a raise through arbitration. The team will try to work out a "moderate-sized deal" with him, and if they can't do it, the right-hander could be non-tendered.
  • Olney reiterates what he wrote in yesterday's blog: it doesn't seem like Adrian Gonzalez is going anywhere.
  • Randy Wolf has received plenty of interest from teams looking at starting pitching.

Red Sox Express Interest In Scutaro, Escobar, And More

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Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald says the Red Sox have kicked the tires on many free agents already, with Marco Scutaro and Kelvim Escobar the newest names.  Others include Rafael Soriano, Matt Holliday, Rick Ankiel, Adrian Beltre, John Lackey, Aroldis Chapman, Billy Wagner, Mike Gonzalez, Alex Gonzalez, and, of course, Jason Bay.  Silverman cautions that not all names connected to the Red Sox have "enduring news value."

Scutaro certainly makes sense for Boston; he's the best available shortstop, considering both the free agent and trade market.  We ranked Scutaro the eighth-best free agent overall, perhaps a reflection of a weaker market this year.  It'd be nice to see Scutaro sign with the Red Sox, as we'd get at least one of our 50 predictions right. 

Aside from committing a multiyear contract to Scutaro, the Sox might have to surrender their #29 pick in the June 2010 draft to the Blue Jays.  Looking at the Elias numbers, it is possible that the Jays get screwed out of a first-rounder again, as they did losing A.J. Burnett last year (of course, the Jays failed to sign James Paxton anyway).  If the Red Sox sign Scutaro and any of Soriano, Gonzalez, Holliday, or Lackey, the Braves, Cardinals, or Angels would get Boston's #29 pick instead and the Jays would get their second-rounder (assuming arbitration is offered to those players).

As Silverman notes, Escobar would fit right in with the John Smoltz/Brad Penny signings of last year.  Those two bombed, but here's the question – what kind of success rate should the Red Sox expect from these one-year pitcher gambles?  It is OK if one out of five works out?

Braves Notes: Soriano, Gonzalez, Wagner

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Mark Bowman of MLB.com discussed some of Atlanta's options in the free agent market, and here are a few of the more notable pieces of news….

  • Relievers Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez "will likely leave Atlanta" for greener free agent pastures, and thus the Braves are looking for new options at the back of their bullpen.  Bowman says the Braves have talked to free agent closer Billy Wagner's representatives and "won't necessarily be scared" by Wagner's Type A status since Soriano and Gonzalez are also both Type A's.  If those two were to sign elsewhere, the compensation that Atlanta would receive would more than make up for the picks they would lose for signing Wagner.  The Braves and Wagner's most recent club, the Red Sox, may end up virtually trading relievers since Soriano and Gonzalez are two names on Boston's lengthy list of possible free agent targets.
  • Bowman lists former Brave Octavio Dotel as a potential set-up option, and Fernando Rodney as a signing who could serve as either a set-up man or a closer.
  • There isn't anything to rumors that Atlanta will try to trade with Detroit for Miguel Cabrera, or sign free agent Jermaine Dye.  Cabrera's big contract is too rich for the Braves' blood, and as for Dye, there is no DH spot in the National League to stash a right fielder who posted a -20 UZR and -24.5 UZR/150 last season.
  • Signing Marlon Byrd would make Jordan Schaefer expendable, Bowman reports.  Byrd wouldn't necessarily solve Atlanta's need for a right-handed outfield bat, however, given that Byrd's career splits against right-handed and left-handed pitching are pretty even — a .769 lifetime OPS against southpaws and a .759 OPS against righties.  Byrd actually hit significantly better against righties (.835 OPS) last season than he did against lefties (.744 OPS).
  • The Braves are prepared to see what other offers Adam LaRoche receives before they decide if they want to bring him back next season.

Twins May Target Rich Harden

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Free agent starter Rich Harden was a major topic of discussion in MLB.com's Kelly Thesier's mailbag piece today, where it was confirmed that Minnesota has had interest in acquiring the Canadian right-hander in the past and may look to do so again this winter.

Thesier reports that the Twins put in a claim on Harden last August before the Cubs pulled the pitcher back off of waivers.  Minnesota ended up trading for Carl Pavano on August 7 to bolster their pitching staff en route to their successful chase of the AL Central title. 

Though Minnesota has a number of young pitchers both in their rotation and their minor league system, Thesier argues this actually gives the Twins more incentive to sign Harden, given that the team feels they have the depth to fill the void should the injury-plagued Harden again find himself on the disabled list.  Harden posted a 4.09 ERA and 10.9 K/9 rate with Chicago last season and is very used to pitching to the bigger bats of the American League after spending the first five and a half years of his career in Oakland.  It has been speculated that Harden will sign an incentives-laden short-term contract since his injury history will prevent teams from offering longer-term deals, and such a one or two-year contract might appeal to the budget-conscious Twins.

Thesier's mailbag also covers such topics as the possibility of the Twins re-signing Pavano, re-signing Orlando Cabrera to play second or third base, an interest in free agent starter Jarrod Washburn and the status of the dispute between the club and starter Glen Perkins, so it's well worth the read.

Passan On Arguelles, Bedard, Jackson

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Jeff Passan covers a few items in this piece for Yahoo Sports, headlined by 19-year-old Cuban pitcher Noel Arguelles.  The young left-hander impressed a number of agents and representatives from various teams at a workout last month in the Dominican Republic, and the four teams most interested in signing Arguelles are the Athletics, Mariners, Rays, and (who but?) the Yankees.  Passan predicted that Argulles' deal will be worth somewhere around $8.2MM to $10MM, which match the contracts given to Jose Iglesias and Dayan Viciedo last year by the Red Sox and White Sox, respectively.

In other news from Passan's column…

  • Passan says the Yankees are much more interested in Aroldis Chapman than they are in Arguelles, and that Chapman's recent agent switch to Randy and Alan Hendricks may help New York.  Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens are/were both represented by the Hendricks brothers.
  • The Royals are "going hard" to sign Erik Bedard to a short-term contract.  Passan thinks Bedard will sign with someone for an "incentive-loaded one-year deal" in an effort to prove that he's healthy and worthy of a more lucrative longer-term deal for 2011.
  • Detroit seem to be becoming more determined in their quest to trade pitcher Edwin Jackson.  An unnamed executive is quoted as saying, "It’s like they want to give him away, and I don’t really understand why."

Odds & Ends: Guillen, Overbay, Johnson

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A round-up of several items from around the majors…..

  • Adam Rubin of the New York Daily News reports that Jose Guillen would be willing to waive his limited no-trade clause in order to be dealt to the Mets.  The Royals have reportedly proposed an Angel Pagan-for-Guillen swap that would also see Kansas City include some cash to help the Mets pay for Guillen's $12MM salary next season.  Guillen hit .242/.314/.367 in 312 plate appearances for K.C. during his injury-plagued 2009 season, and it's probably for those reasons that Rubin thinks the trade is a long-shot to actually happen.
  • The Globe and Mail's Jeff Blair (via Twitter) was told by a non-Toronto executive that there is a 90 percent chance that the Blue Jays will trade Lyle Overbay at the winter meetings.
  • While talking about Josh Johnson's contract situation, Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria told The Miami Herald's Clark Spencer that the club has no set policy against giving pitchers contracts longer than three years.
  • Former outfielder Doug Glanville wrote an interesting blog entry for the New York Times website about the issues a player can face when entering free agency for the first time, especially if they're thinking of leaving their long-time home.
  • The Baltimore Sun reports that the Orioles signed southpaw reliever Mike Hinckley to a minor-league contract with an invite to spring training.  Hinckley threw 13.2 scoreless innings in 14 relief appearances for Washington in 2008, but his perfect streak was snapped last year when he posted a 4.66 ERA in 14 appearances with the Nationals.  He spent most of last season pitching for the Rangers' Triple-A affiliate.
  • This could be an item for the 'Saying All The Right Things' file, but MLB.com's Matthew Leach reported that at the press conference for Albert Pujols' MVP Award, the Cardinals superstar said he wanted to play in St. Louis, "hopefully for 15 more years if I can play for that long and can retire as a Cardinal." 

Blue Jays Interested In Torrealba

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We learned last week that Yorvit Torrealba was being pursued by his former club, the Rockies, as well as unnamed teams in the National League West and in the American League.  Yesterday, the NL West team was confirmed to be San Francisco, and today Newsday's Ken Davidoff (via Twitter) revealed the American League team to be the Toronto Blue Jays.

MLB.com's Jordan Bastian tweets that the Jays have made "multiple" inquiries about the catcher and are preparing to make an offer.  Torrealba turned down a two-year/$4.5MM offer from Colorado earlier this month.  Since the Giants are interested in Torrealba largely as a stop-gap starting option or as a backup depending on the progress of top prospect Buster Posey , Torrealba might be more interested in Toronto's offer with the promise of regular playing time.

Torrealba became the Rockies' everyday catcher in the second half of last season and in the NLDS after posting a .324/.373/.394 line in 160 plate appearances after the All-Star break.  With Rod Barajas a free-agent, Toronto has a need at catcher with prospect J.P. Arencibia's progress stalled after a disappointing 2009 minor league campaign.  It's unlikely that the Jays' contract offer would greatly exceed Colorado's given the red flags of Torrealba's career .706 OPS and the fact that he only threw out 14 percent of base-stealers last season.

Lincecum’s Arbitration Number: $23 Million Plus?

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Yahoo's Tim Brown penned a column today about Tim Lincecum's likely record-setting arbitration case that included this tidbit from an unnamed baseball executive.  Lincecum's agents and the MLB Players' Union had discussed the possibility of submitting an arbitration figure of $23MM plus one dollar for the back-to-back Cy Young Award winner.  Why the extra dollar?  So Lincecum would be making 100 cents more than the highest-paid pitcher in baseball, C.C. Sabathia.  The symbolic number would reflect Lincecum's unprecedented success this early in his career.

As Brown notes, Lincecum and his team would almost certainly lose their case by posting such a high number.  Since the Giants' bid, however, is almost obligated to be in the eight-figure range, it seems guaranteed that Lincecum's final 2010 salary will exceed the record $10MM arbitration award given to Ryan Howard following his MVP season in 2007.

This could be all moot, of course, if the Giants don't let Lincecum get to arbitration in the first place.  It was previously reported that Lincecum was open to a contract extension in San Francisco, for an amount that would likely top Zach Greinke's four-year/$38MM deal with the Royals.  Brown speculates that a Lincecum extension could be closer to the three-year/$54 million contract that Howard signed with Philadelphia last February.

One almost hopes that Lincecum and the Giants don't come to terms so we can see, in the words of MLBTR's Mike Axisa, "the most awesome first year arbitration case in history."

Yankees Sign Eladio Moronta

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Baseball America's Ben Badler is reporting that Dominican outfielder Eladio Moronta signed today with New York.  The signing concludes a hectic seven-month period for Moronta, 20, who was given a one-year suspension by Major League Baseball last May for misrepresenting his age as 17 years old.  Moronta's suspension was lifted at the end of September.

The deal is reported to worth $570K according to Baseball Prospectus' Kiley McDaniel (via Twitter).  In other tweets on the subject, McDaniel said that Moronta has been compared to Raul Mondesi by scouts and could have commanded a seven-figure contract when the international signing period opened last July 2 had he been eligible to be signed.

Orioles Looking “Short-Term” At The Corners

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The Orioles aren't expected to be major players on the free-agent market this winter, but if the team does make a move, it will likely be to acquire a veteran presence at first and/or third base.

Speaking to MASN Sports' Steve Melewski, Baltimore team president Andy MacPhail said that given the Orioles' young outfield and second-year catcher Matt Wieters, he would "like to put more proven bats" in the lineup to compliment the team's young stars.  The O's have prospects Brandon Snyder and Josh Bell in the pipeline at first and third, respectively, but since MacPhail said he doesn't see either making the leap to the majors in 2010, the experienced hitters that MacPhail wants will have to come at the corner infield spots.

Baltimore already has Luke Scott (a team-leading 25 homers in 2009) penciled in at either first base or DH, and utilityman Ty Wigginton is available to play third.  Prospect Michael Aubrey (an .826 OPS in 95 plate appearances last season) is also in the 1B mix, possibly in a lefty-righty platoon with Wigginton that would lock Scott into a DH/LF split with Nolan Reimold and would then leave third base open for either a free agent or a player to be acquired in a trade.  The Baltimore Sun's Dan Connolly predicted the O's would sign Pedro Feliz, while there has been some speculation that the Orioles will make a trade with Florida for Dan Uggla and then move Uggla from second to third base.

In his Offseason Outlook series entry about Baltimore, Tim Dierkes listed names like Adrian Beltre, Carlos Delgado and Nick Johnson as possible targets for the Orioles.  These players would fit the "short-term" designation that MacPhail mentioned, but since MacPhail didn't rule out the possibility of "the right deal for the right player, even if it was a longer-term deal," would there be any other bigger-name corner infielders that you could realistically see Baltimore signing?

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