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Free Agent Stock Watch: Kevin Correia

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Like the Padres, Kevin Correia started the season well but slumped down the stretch. There's no question that the 30-year-old's late-season struggles will limit his asking price this winter. Here's a closer look at the right-hander's free agent stock:

The Pros

  • Correia can strike hitters out (7.1 K/9 in 2010).
  • He stayed healthy all year.
  • Teams were showing interest in Correia not long ago; the Brewers and Rays asked about him last offseason. 
  • Despite the righty's 5.40 ERA, defense-independent pitching stats suggest he was unlucky. Nearly 15% of fly balls hit off of Correia left the yard, so homers inflated his ERA.
  • Correia has induced more grounders in the past two seasons (45% ground ball rate in '09, 49% ground ball rate in '10). This suggests he could pitch just as effectively in a considerably smaller park than Petco.
  • He's just a year removed from a season in which he posted a 3.91 ERA in 33 starts.

The Cons

  • He posted a 5.40 ERA last year, allowing more than a hit per inning. Lucky or not, those numbers are ugly.
  • Bud Black took note and removed the right-hander from the Padres' rotation in September. Correia had posted a 6.18 ERA between June and August. That's one long slump.
  • His walk rate jumped from 2.9 BB/9 to 4.0 BB/9 in 2010.

The Verdict 

It doesn't look great for Correia, though he shouldn't have trouble drawing interest. Teams like the Orioles and Brewers will be looking for back-of-the-rotation arms this offseason and Correia's ability to induce grounders would play well in homer-friendly places like Camden Yards and Miller Park. But other free agents (including former Brewer Dave Bush and former Oriole Kevin Millwood) will be vying for rotation spots and Correia doesn't have much leverage given his poor finish. A one-year deal worth $2MM or so seems like a reasonable target for the San Diego native, who may well end up with the Padres again.

Team And Transaction-Only Feeds

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If you'd like to filter MLBTR's information by team or limit it to transactions only, we've got you covered.

In the navigation bar, check out the Feeds By Team dropdown.  Clicking on the name of a team returns all the posts that reference that club.  For example, this page displays only posts with Braves-related rumors.  The newest will always be on top. 

Next to the word "Braves" you'll see an RSS button and a Twitter button.  The RSS button leads here, to the URL you'd put into your RSS reader to receive only our Braves rumors.  The Twitter button takes you to @mlbtrbraves, which shows all posts involving the team.  The MLBTR team Twitter pages are also a place to quickly receive info from team press releases, even if that info is not used on the main site.

If you'd prefer to monitor only actual transactions, we've got several options.  Our Transactions page shows only posts marked as transactions, such as signings, trades, DFAs, and releases.  You can also get this same info on Twitter and RSS.

Five Potential Bargain Lefties For 2011

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Teams are perpetually searching for effective left-handed relievers, so here are five southpaws who could become useful pieces at a bargain price next year. Some of the pitchers below are inching closer to 40, but Arthur Rhodes and Darren Oliver proved this year that there's no age limit for lefty specialists. The list focuses on pitchers who will likely sign for a couple million dollars at most, so I haven't included Hisanori Takahashi, Scott Downs and others:

  • Randy Choate – The 35-year-old hits the open market as your prototypical 'left-handed one out guy.' He made 85 appearances in 2010, but logged just 44.3 innings. His numbers are strong (8.1 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 4.23 ERA) and suggest he could play anywhere, but teams that play in homer-friendly parks such as the D'Backs, Rockies and Brewers may take note of Choate's ability to keep the ball on the ground. His 60% ground ball rate ranked 15th among big league relievers with at least 20 innings.
  • Will Ohman – Ohman, 33, recovered from a poor 2009 season and posted a 3.21 ERA with 9.2 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9 between the O's and Marlins. He's going to walk hitters, but he can still get lefties out.
  • Ron Mahay – Mahay turns 40 in June, but that didn't stop him from posting a 3.44 ERA this year and striking out three times as many batters as he walked. He's not in position to demand a multi-year deal, but he could help someone's bullpen in 2011.
  • Taylor Tankersley – The 27-year-old is the least predictable of the options listed, but possibly the most intriguing. Tankersley, a former first rounder, has struck out nearly a batter per inning in his big league career and has held lefties to a .223/.313/.372 line. There are drawbacks – he missed the 2009 season with a stress fracture in his pitching elbow and has trouble against righties – but Tankersley would be a good fit for the Pirates, Mets or Mariners at the right price. Why those clubs? As a fly ball pitcher, he probably fits best in a park that limits home runs and as an unproven pitcher, he fits best on a non-contender. That makes Pittsburgh, New York and Seattle potential fits.
  • Brian Tallet – Unlike the pitchers above, Tallet won't necessarily hit the free agent market, but the 33-year-old is a non-tender candidate so he may be available by early December. Tallet, another fly ball pitcher, limited lefties to a stellar .176/.228/.343 line this year with a 28/6 K/BB ratio.

Dennys Reyes' 2010 numbers look OK, but don't let that 3.55 ERA fool you. Reyes posted a 0.54 ERA through May and a 5.91 ERA afterwards. He can induce grounders, but he walks more than one batter per two innings pitched.

Rockies Rumors: De La Rosa, Mora, Tulowitzki

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When Ted Lilly finalized his three-year $33MM deal, he established a standard for other free agent left-handers. The agreement may not impact Cliff Lee, who figures to be in his own tier, but it could be a point of reference for Jorge de la Rosa's contract negotiations this winter. Here's the latest on de la Rosa and the Rockies:

Orioles Eyeing Some Japanese Players

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The Orioles will show interest in five to eight Japanese players if they become available, according to Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun. Orioles director of player development John Stockstill told Zrebiec that he scouted Japanese players personally as recently as September.

Japanese shortstop Hiroyuki Nakajima has the Orioles’ attention; they have seen him play several times. The Mariners also have interest in Nakajima, according to Dave Cameron of U.S.S. Mariner and other teams will be involved in the bidding, too. There aren’t many shortstops with power available via trades or free agency, so Nakajima figures to draw interest if he’s posted.

The Orioles would have kicked the tires on Yu Darvish if he had become available this offseason. They have seen the right-hander throw about 30 times since 2008, but Darvish plans to stay in Japan for 2011.

Odds & Ends: Wilson, Twins, Greinke, Dodgers

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As the Giants take a 2-1 lead in the NLCS, let's look at some news from around the baseball world…

  • Though C.J. Wilson will get a big arbitration raise, ESPN's Jason A. Churchill thinks the Rangers are more likely to keep the southpaw rather than put him on the trade market.
  • The Twins need another top-flight starter, and Jim Souhan of the Minneapolis Star Tribune thinks the team should try to acquire Zack Greinke.  His proposed offer of Delmon Young, Kevin Slowey and a prospect won't be enough to get it done, especially since Kansas City would be sending Greinke to a division rival.
  • Dodgers GM Ned Colletti says the club's payroll will increase in 2011, according to Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times.  (Twitter link)
  • Detroit "will make [a] strong push" to sign Victor Martinez this winter, tweets The Denver Post's Troy Renck.  The Rockies, meanwhile, are a "longshot" to sign the free agent catcher.
  • Also from Renck (via Twitter), Troy Tulowitzki isn't likely to give the Rockies a discount on his next contract since the six-year, $31MM deal he signed before the 2008 season has already proven to be very team-friendly.  Tulowitzki is locked up through 2013 and the Rockies have a team option (for $15MM) on him for 2014, so it'll be at least a couple of years before Colorado thinks about extending the star shortstop.
  • PGP of the DRaysBay.com blog looks at why Tampa Bay might think about trading Matt Garza and what he could fetch in a deal.
  • If Cliff Lee signs a six-year contract with the Yankees this winter, he could earn close to $200MM in salary and endorsement deals, estimates Forbes Magazine's Patrick Rishe.
  • Magic Johnson owning the Dodgers?  ESPN.com's J.A. Adande wants to see it happen.
  • Padres assistant GM Fred Uhlman Jr. will remain with the club, tweets MLB.com's Corey Brock.  There were rumors that Uhlman could head to Arizona to work with former Padres general manager Kevin Towers.
  • The Cardinals need to patch up the "rift" that has developed in the front office in recent years, writes Jeff Gordon of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.  Gordon also looks at the Cardinals' minor league system and the team's last several drafts. 
  • Fangraphs' Pat Andriola looks at which teams did and didn't benefit from "the old guy discount" last winter.

La Russa On Duncan, McGwire, His Future

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In the wake of his newly-signed contract to return as the Cardinals' manager, Tony La Russa met with the media to discuss his new contract and a few other outstanding coaching issues facing the Redbirds.  Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has some of the pertinent info…

  • La Russa said that pitching coach Dave Duncan wants a multi-year contract from the club.  A Cardinals official tells Goold that "the organization is not closed off to the possibility," which is an understatement given Duncan's wizardry at rebuilding pitchers.  Duncan leaving would be a big blow to St. Louis and would hurt their efforts to sign free agent starters, such as Jake Westbrook.
  • Mark McGwire will "definitely be offered a chance to come back" as the team's batting coach, La Russa said.  McGwire's hesitation over returning stems from not wanting to spend so much time away from his family.
  • Since La Russa's contract was a one-year deal with a mutual option for 2012, the manager was asked if there could be another "Tony Watch" next season.  La Russa sounded as if he's taking his baseball future on an annual basis and wouldn't be comfortable in agreeing to a long-term contract in case his desire wanes.  "You take every year like it's last year. That how you should manage," La Russa said.  "Day in, day out, working with the players, they either believe you or they don't. … If you give a manager a multi-year all you're doing is guaranteeing him some money. It doesn't have anything to do with how effective you are at doing your job."

Dodgers Sign Ted Lilly

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The Dodgers have signed Ted Lilly to a three-year, $33MM contract that was finalized today when the 34-year-old pitcher passed a physical.  Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times (via Twitter) reports that Lilly has a full no-trade clause for the first two seasons of the deal, and the left-hander will receive a $3.5MM signing bonus to be paid out over all three years.  Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com broke the news of the agreement last Saturday, and MLB.com's Ken Gurnick was the first to confirm the dollar amount (both Twitter links).

Los Angeles acquired Lilly from the Cubs at the trade deadline this summer, and watched him post a 3.52 ERA with 9.0 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 in dozen starts (76.2 innings). He also threw his first complete game shutout since 2004 while in a Dodgers' uniform. Lilly just wrapped up the four year, $40MM contract he signed with Chicago before the 2007 season. 

Lilly projected to be a Type-A free agent, so the Dodgers will be forfeiting a chance at two high draft picks with the move. Of course they would have had to offer arbitration and Lilly would have had to turn it down for that to happen, and neither of those things was a given. 

Lilly was positioned to be one of the best free agent starting pitchers available, and Sports Illustrated's Jon Heyman (via Twitter) calls the signing a "bargain" for Los Angeles considering what Lilly could've earned on the open market.  Apparently he preferred to sign quickly, and given how the market played out last offseason, it's hard to blame him.

MLBTR's Mark Polishuk also contributed to this post.

Amateur Signing Bonuses: Reds

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Next up in our series looking at how much each club spends on amateurs, the Reds…

  1. Aroldis Chapman, $16.25MM (2010)
  2. Chris Gruler, $2.5MM (2002)
  3. Yorman Rodriguez, $2.5MM (2008)
  4. Homer Bailey, $2.3MM (2004)
  5. Mike Leake, $2.27MM (2009)

I don't want to ruin the surprise, but Chapman's bonus is by far the largest you'll see in this series. It wasn't all paid out at once though; the 22-year-old Cuban defector received $1.5MM up front and the rest will be paid in annual installments through 2020, the first of which is due in less than two weeks.  I'm sure the Reds will happily hand that money over after Chapman's late season showing, when he struck out 19 with a 2.03 ERA in 13.1 relief innings.  He also threw the fastest recorded pitch in baseball history on September 24th, a fastball that MLBAM's PitchFX system clocked at 105.1 mph.

Gruler made 11 starts in 2002 after being the third overall pick that year, but unfortunately the 44 innings he tossed that season would be a career high.  He battled shoulder injury after shoulder injury, and was out of baseball by 2006 after just 92.2 minor league innings, none of them above the Single-A level. Rodriguez is still just 18 years old despite signing two summers ago.  The outfielder is a .276/.316/.384 career hitter in 472 plate appearances in the lowest levels of minor league baseball.

The eighth overall pick in 2009, Leake became the first pitcher since Ariel Prieto in 1995 to skip the minor leagues and make his professional debut in the show.  He threw 138.1 innings for the Reds this season, putting up a 4.23 ERA with 5.9 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 before being placed on the disabled list with shoulder fatigue in an effort to control his workload.  Bailey took a more conventional route after being selected with the seventh overall pick in 2004.  He made his big league debut in 2007, and in 39 starts (222.1 innings) for the Reds over the last two seasons he's pitched to a 4.49 ERA with 7.5 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9.  Both Leake and Bailey figure to have a spot in Cincinnati's rotation next season.

It's worth noting that the Reds have also given four players bonuses of exactly $2MM: Drew Stubbs, Juan Duran, Yonder Alonso, and Yasmani Grandal.  Stubbs is the team's regular center fielder; the other three are currently working their way through the farm system.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Ty Wigginton

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Coming off an .876 OPS season with Houston in 2008, Ty Wigginton signed a two-year, $6MM deal with the Orioles.   He had a .258/.313/.409 line in 1085 plate appearances for Baltimore and was named to the AL All-Star Team after a superb April and May last season.  Let's see what a team will get by signing the 33-year-old this winter…

The Pros

  • Wigginton appeared in 98 games at first, 40 games at second and 22 games at third last season.  A lot of clubs could use a utility infielder able to cover three positions, plus he also has corner outfield experience.
  • As MLBTR's Tim Dierkes noted last week, the free agent market for third basemen is very thin once you get past Adrian Beltre.
  • Wigginton is coming off a 22-homer season, though just nine of those home runs came after May 23.  He has always had some pop in his bat, compiling a .446 slugging percentage in his career.

The Cons

  • Wigginton may be versatile, but he has a below-average UZR/150 at all three of his infield positions, especially at second and third.  He does have a 9.5 UZR/150 in the outfield, however.
  • The right-handed hitter has a career .816 OPS against left-handed pitching (and a .755 OPS against righties), but his numbers against southpaws have dipped considerably over the last two seasons.  Wigginton posted a .650 OPS and a .679 OPS against southpaws in 2009 and 2010, respectively. 

The Verdict

Wigginton is probably in line for a one-year contract worth no more than $2-$2.5MM.  It's unlikely he'd be used in anything but a platoon or bench role, though his declining numbers against lefties will concern teams looking for a veteran right-handed bat.

Since Wigginton can play all over the diamond, any number of teams could see him as a useful bench option.  He could return to Baltimore at a lower price since there appears to be mutual interest between he and the Orioles, plus the O's would prefer a known quantity to fill in should Josh Bell not be able handle the everyday third base job.   MLB.com's Brittany Ghiroli notes that Wigginton will be looking for a multi-year commitment, which Baltimore isn't keen to offer (Twitter link).

Wherever Wigginton plays in 2011, expect him to draw interest at the trade deadline as he did last July.  Wigginton's versatility makes him a candidate for any team looking to fill a hole created by a midseason injury.

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