Trade And Free Agent Market For Starting Pitchers
The Braves, Rays, Cardinals, Brewers, and Diamondbacks probably will not be in the market for starting pitching this offseason, but most other teams will be. Here's how the market shapes up.
Top-Of-The-Rotation Starters Available In Free Agency Or Trade
Yu Darvish is not technically a free agent, but any team will be able to bid for the exclusive rights to negotiate with him if the Nippon-Ham Fighters post him. He may require a $100MM+ commitment, and would become the ace of many MLB staffs. Regular free agents C.J. Wilson and Roy Oswalt would slot in as the #1 or #2 starter in several rotations. All three have their share of question marks, but they're as close to aces as we've got.
The trade market for aces looks bleak or non-existent, if the Rays' James Shields is truly "very unlikely" to be dealt. There is currently no reason to think Clayton Kershaw, David Price, Felix Hernandez, Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, or Josh Beckett will be traded this offseason, though there's a surprise every year.
Middle-Of-The Rotation Starters Available In Free Agency Or Trade
The free agent market features several starters who can slot in comfortably at #3: Mark Buehrle, Edwin Jackson, Hiroki Kuroda, and Javier Vazquez. Erik Bedard and Bartolo Colon make solid #3s when healthy, while Hisashi Iwakuma could be worthy of the designation.
On the trade market, Gio Gonzalez and Jair Jurrjens can be considered third starters or even a little more. With four more years of club control, the A's could having an asking price for Gonzalez exceeding that of Matt Garza last offseason. If the A's are willing to discuss Gonzalez they may also listen on Brandon McCarthy. Wandy Rodriguez, John Danks, Gavin Floyd, Jeremy Guthrie, and Ricky Nolasco could be available as well.
Back-Of-The Rotation Starters Available In Free Agency Or Trade
The free agent market offers known commodities Chris Capuano, Bruce Chen, Jeff Francis, Freddy Garcia, Aaron Harang, Paul Maholm, Jason Marquis. There are also many more with something to prove, like Rich Harden, Jon Garland, Joel Pineiro, Tsuyoshi Wada, and Dontrelle Willis.
John Lannan, Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis, Homer Bailey, Brett Myers, Carlos Zambrano, Travis Wood, A.J. Burnett, and Edinson Volquez are speculative trade candidates.
Non-Tender Candidates
Joe Saunders, Mike Pelfrey, Chris Volstad, Ross Ohlendorf, Kevin Slowey, Jerome Williams, and Tom Gorzelanny have some chance of being non-tendered in December, so they may be presently available. Jonathan Sanchez, a non-tender candidate for the Giants, was just traded to the Royals.
Thinking Outside The Box
Last winter the Rangers were interested in signing Bobby Jenks as a starter, and a rotation opportunity motivated Aaron Heilman to sign with Arizona. There are no obvious candidates to make the relief-rotation shift, but a few should pop up as the offseason progresses.
Royals Acquire Jonathan Sanchez For Melky Cabrera
The Royals acquired lefty Jonathan Sanchez and minor league starter Ryan Verdugo from the Giants for outfielder Melky Cabrera, announced the team.
Sanchez, 28, may have been a non-tender candidate for the Giants after a disappointing 2011 season that saw him walk 5.9 per nine innings and miss significant time with biceps tendinitis and a sprained ankle. The southpaw is tough to hit and has big-time strikeout numbers, but control has always been a problem. In Sanchez, Felipe Paulino, and Danny Duffy, Royals GM Dayton Moore has strong strikeout potential for three-fifths of his 2012 rotation. Sanchez projects to earn $5.2MM in 2012, after which he'll be eligible for free agency. That he was traded for one year of Cabrera shows how much his trade value slipped during the '11 season. Sanchez was set to battle Barry Zito for the Giants' fifth starter job next year.
Cabrera had the opposite experience in 2011, as he had a resurgence after being non-tendered and signing a $1.25MM free agent deal. The 27-year-old hit .305/.339/.470 with 18 home runs in 706 plate appearances for the Royals, playing mostly center field. UZR suggests he is a below-average defender there, though there seems a good chance the Giants continue to use him in center. If so, Andres Torres could become expendable. Cabrera is projected to earn $4.4MM in 2012, after which he'll be eligible for free agency. With the deal, the Royals opened up center field for prospect Lorenzo Cain.
Verdugo, a 24-year-old Double-A southpaw, went to Kansas City along with Sanchez in the deal. Baseball America ranked him 25th among Giants prospects prior to the season, describing him as a deceptive lefty who misses bats but has minus command. Verdugo was a starter in college and returned to that role last year.
Rosenthal On Butler, Sizemore, Orioles
The latest from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports…
- The Phillies have serious interest in free agent Michael Cuddyer, although Rosenthal is skeptical of them adding a player who turns 33 in March. Rosenthal says other left fielders are in the mix, but none are ideal. One player Rosenthal did not mention is Josh Willingham, who I can see the Phillies considering. As for a splash at shortstop, Rosenthal says Jose Reyes' leg problems scare the Phillies.
- The Orioles were desperate to find a new GM and Dan Duquette was desperate to be a GM again, writes Rosenthal. A press conference is expected this week to announce Duquette's three-year deal.
- The Royals view Billy Butler and Eric Hosmer as their 3-4 hitters long-term, so don't look for Butler on the trade market this winter. The 25-year-old is potentially under team control through 2015 on an extension signed in January.
- Rosenthal sees Grady Sizemore landing with a high-revenue team for an amount close to the $9MM option Cleveland passed on. I'd be surprised if he tops $7MM guaranteed. Sizemore's agent Joe Urbon said his client prefers to play center field, but is open to a corner spot.
- The Orioles are trying to add pitching depth via the six-year minor league free agent market. Here's the list of minor league free agents from Matt Eddy of Baseball America.
- Rosenthal says to look for Ryne Sandberg to be promoted to Phillies bench coach of Pete Mackanin is hired by the Cubs or Red Sox. He also thinks recently-fired Cubs manager Mike Quade would then be a possibility to manage the Phillies' Triple-A club.
Offseason Outlook: Arizona Diamondbacks
Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers seems to be planning a quiet offseason, though the team must address second base and determine the future of Joe Saunders.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Chris Young, CF: $17MM through 2013
- Stephen Drew, SS: $9.1MM through 2012
- Justin Upton, RF: $45.25MM through 2015
- J.J. Putz, RP: $6MM through 2012
- John McDonald, IF: $3MM through 2013
- Geoff Blum, IF: $1.35MM through 2012
- Henry Blanco, C: $1.2MM through 2012
Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)
- Joe Saunders, SP: $8.7MM (non-tender candidate)
- Miguel Montero, C: $5.3MM
- Brad Ziegler, RP: $1.8MM
- Ryan Roberts, 3B/2B: $1.7MM
- Micah Owings, RP: $1.3MM (non-tender candidate)
Free Agents
- Jason Marquis (unranked SP), Lyle Overbay (unranked 1B), Xavier Nady (unranked 1B/LF), Willie Bloomquist (unranked IF/OF), Aaron Hill (Type B 2B), Zach Duke (unranked SP)
The Diamondbacks pulled off the difficult worst-to-first feat this year. Several different executives deserve credit for crafting the 2011 D'Backs, but GM Kevin Towers will continue to mold the club in his second offseason. However, Towers is due for a relatively quiet winter, based on his October conversation with Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic.
One area of need is second base, a position Towers shook up midseason by shipping the disappointing Kelly Johnson to Toronto for Hill and McDonald. Hill's $8MM club option didn't make sense for the D'Backs, and while Towers declined it, the idea of offering Hill arbitration should give the GM pause. The move would give the team a shot at a supplemental draft pick or the chance to have Hill back for around $6MM. But since Hill's stellar 142 plate appearances for Arizona were preceded by over 1,000 mostly bad ones, even $6MM seems generous. The idea of a second baseman worth three-to-four wins above replacement is tantalizing, and the D'Backs should be willing to commit $4MM in base salary to see if Hill can return to that level.
Towers has already addressed a couple of minor concerns, re-signing backups Blanco and McDonald for a total of $4.2MM. The D'Backs moved quickly on McDonald after Bloomquist declined his side of a mutual option, prompting agent Scott Boras to suggest, "They got upset when Willie opted out. They got emotional and they went out and signed a guy who hit .169." McDonald was a better fit, though, as a superior shortstop who can handle the assignment if Stephen Drew is not ready for Opening Day after July ankle surgery.
There's no trade market for a $9MM, mid-4s ERA southpaw, as the Pirates' inability to find a suitor for Paul Maholm attests. The D'Backs have a similar predicament with Saunders, whom they may non-tender by December 12th if they can't find a trade partner. Saunders is more of an innings eater, but the trade market will be very limited. Getting rid of Saunders means relying on Josh Collmenter as the team's third starter, a fairly risky proposition. If two of Tyler Skaggs, Pat Corbin, and Trevor Bauer round out the rotation, then a lot of pressure gets placed on Ian Kennedy and Dan Hudson to repeat phenomenal 2011 seasons.
Towers told Piecoro he doesn't think there are "big, big needs" for his team, yet he won't rule out a run at "the right kind of marquee guy." President and CEO Derrick Hall agrees that there are "not many holes to fill." But with a potential $30MM in payroll flexibility, the D'Backs should be more aggressive in replacing Saunders in the rotation and adding a productive player at second or third base.
Towers also has internal business to tend to, as Drew, Montero, and Kennedy could be considered for extensions. Drew and Montero are entering their walk years and therefore should be more pressing concerns. Drew's health uncertainty and Boras representation make an offseason extension unlikely, but the D'Backs must begin planning for life without their longtime shortstop. There's no obvious replacement for Montero, either.
The Diamondbacks must be wary of resting on their laurels, as their rotation lacks stability behind Kennedy and Hudson. Instead, Towers should take advantage of the team's payroll flexibility by adding depth throughout the roster.
Quick Hits: Ordonez, Rangers, Myers, Cubs
Remember – the deadline to make picks for MLBTR's first-ever free agent prediction contest is tonight at midnight central time. Only ballots with picks made for all of the top 50 free agents will be counted; incomplete ones will not be eligible. So dot your I's, cross your T's, and give yourself a chance at a piece of $1000 worth of great prizes. For information about the contest rules and prizes, click here. When you're done with that, check out these links..
- MLB.com's Jason Beck chatted with Carlos Guillen, who has been talking with Magglio Ordonez since the season ended and the veteran relayed that Ordonez plans on playing again next year. That news matches up with what we've been hearing recently. Reportedly, it's very unlikely that Guillen or Ordonez will return to the Tigers next year.
- In a piece for MLB.com, Peter Gammons praises Rangers GM Jon Daniels, assistant GM Thad Levine, senior director of player personnel A.J. Preller, and the rest of the club's front office for their work in recent years. Gammons runs down some of the club's best calls, including their 2010 to trade for Cliff Lee which propelled them to win the pennant and reach the World Series for the first time in franchise history.
- The Braves had trade talks with the Royals about Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado but talks have stalled, likely because Kansas City does not want to part with top prospect Wil Myers. Rustin Dodd of The Kansas City Star believes that Myers is a player with star potential that can be used to net the club a potential impact starting pitcher in a trade.
- Either Dale Sveum or Mike Maddux would make sense as the Cubs' next manager, writes Patrick Mooney of CSNChicago.com. Meanwhile, the club has a huge void in its rotation and pitching figures to be their biggest need this offseason. In his Offseason Outlook for the Cubs, Tim Dierkes writes the Cubs could easily spread their surplus among four or five veterans rather than go for a big splash.
- Josh Goldman of Fangraphs brings us three visuals to analyze baseball's previous $100MM contract recipients and how they performed. Recently, our own Ben Nicholson-Smith checked in on how baseball's newest $100MM players fared in 2011.
Orioles Notes: Duquette, Jakubauskas, Guthrie
Earlier today, we learned that after nearly ten years away from the game, Dan Duquette is coming back to baseball as the Orioles' General Manager. Here's a look at some reactions to the move from around baseball and other O's news..
- While he believes that Duquette is a "good man" and a "very bright" individual, Peter Gammons of MLB Network (via Twitter), he wonders if the GM will be able to get up to speed after a decade away from baseball. After drafting Nomar Garciaparra in 1994, the former Red Sox GM gave up on the draft and only one first-round pick made it to the majors (Twitter link). Gammons feels that the O's have decayed ever since Peter Angelos let Pat Gillick go at the end of his contract in 1998 and wonders if Duquette will have the contacts to find undervalued talent (via Twitter).
- It's amazing that Duquette got a GM job just a few weeks after one of his protégés, Ben Cherington, was named GM of the Red Sox, writes Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe. Duquette who hired Cherington in 1999 as an amateur scout.
- Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports seems to doubt how much authority Duquette will have in Baltimore.
- Duquette comes with plenty of detractors, but so did manager Buck Showalter when he came to Baltimore, writes MLB.com's Britt Ghiroli.
- Pitcher Jeremy Guthrie (via Twitter) is happy to have Duquette aboard as the team's new GM. The right-hander writes, "By all accounts we're fortunate to have him."
- Last Sunday, Orioles pitcher Chris Jakubauskas refused his outright assignment to Triple-A and elected free agency, but said that he would like to reach a new deal with the club. Tonight, Jakubauskas tweets that he hopes to have a new agreement for 2012 hammered out by tomorrow.
Mets Notes: Reyes, Wright, Payroll, Backman
There's lots of chatter around the Mets regarding free agent Jose Reyes and the possibility of trading third baseman David Wright. Here's more on that and other items concerning the Metropolitans..
- ESPN.com's Buster Olney (via Twitter) doesn''t know where Reyes will land, but thinks that the Brewers would be an excellent fit for the shortstop. The Brewers should have the money to spend on a big-ticket free agent such as Reyes this summer. MLBTR's Tim Dierkes ranked Reyes third on his top 50 free agents list, predicting Milwaukee as his destination. Make your picks for Reyes the other 49 top free agents in MLBTR's contest — less than three hours remain to enter!
- Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com (via Twitter) makes an educated guess and sees the Mets with a $95MM payroll on Opening Day. During the season, GM Sandy Alderson said that the payroll could grow into the $100-$110MM range, but that figure includes amateur signing bonuses. Rubin (via Twitter) figures the Mets have about $18MM to spend this winter on a closer, set-up man, center fielder, a starting pitcher, and more bullpen arms.
- Wright could be moved next summer under the right circumstances, but it's highly unlikely that he'll be traded this winter, Andy Martino of the New York Daily News (via Twitter) has been told.
- Wally Backman will accept the Mets’ offer to manage their Triple-A affiliate in Buffalo, with the hope that he’s next in line after Terry Collins, writes Bob Klapisch of The Bergen Record. Meanwhile, friends of Alderson say that he has no intention of a long-run as GM and eventually, Paul DePodesta will run the day-to-day operations of the franchise. One NL talent evaluator told Klapisch that it would take four-to-five years to develop the talent to become competitive again in the division if the Mets do not retain Reyes.
MLBTR Free Agent Prediction Contest
Your window to make picks for MLBTR's first-ever free agent prediction contest is coming to a close. Tonight at midnight central time, picks will be locked. Only ballots with picks made for all of the top 50 free agents will be counted; incomplete ones will not be eligible. Be sure to update and save your picks by tonight's deadline!
For information about the contest rules and prizes, click here.
MLBTR Originals
Here's a look at the original reporting and analysis from the MLBTR writing team this week..
- This week, we announced our first-ever MLBTR free agent prediciton contest. The contest is open now and runs until midnight central time tonight. Get your picks in now for a chance at $1,000 in cash prizes to be distributed among the top five finishers.
- Tim released his own predictions for the Top 50 Free Agents of the 2011 offseason. You can check out the entire list of available free agents here, and you can filter by position and signing team with our free agent tracker here.
- Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model for MLBTR to project arbitration salaries. There are almost 200 remaining arbitration eligible players and we have projections for all of them.
- MLBTR obtained the official Elias rankings for this offseason and this list includes all unsigned ranked free agents. Eddie Bajek reverse-engineered the Elias rankings for MLBTR and was right on every free agent except for Kelly Johnson and Joel Zumaya.
- Our Offseason Outlook series rolled on with a look at the two-time defending American League champion Texas Rangers. We also gave our take on the 2011 World Champion Cardinals and the Braves.
- Lots of teams including the Red Sox, Twins, Athletics, Cubs, and Pirates could explore the market for right fielders this year, which mostly consists of a variety of free agents.
- Need a refresher on the MLBTR commenting system? We've got you covered.
- Determining an MLB player's representation was once a challenge for baseball fans, but MLBTR's agency database changed everything. We've compiled agency data for nearly 1,500 players, mainly through regular contact with dozens of agencies. Check out MLBTR's agency database today!
- On the first official week of the offseason, Mike Axisa rounded up the best baseball talk from around the web in Baseball Blogs Weigh In.
- In the last three years, Twitter has become an essential part of MLB coverage. Nearly every baseball writer has a Twitter account, and the majority of news is broken through this medium. If you're not already, follow MLBTradeRumors on Twitter today!
- Did you miss our Wednesday afternoon chat? That's alright, you can check out the transcript right here. If you want to improve your chances of having your question answered by Tim Dierkes or Ben Nicholson-Smith, then take a look at Tim's list of tips.
- Supply always seems to exceed demand for designated hitters. Only 14 jobs exist, which tends to create a late-developing buyers' market. We took a look ahead to this offseason's available and potentially available DHs.
- Want to get in touch with us here at MLBTR? Contacting Tim Dierkes and/or the MLBTR writing team is quite easy. Just use our contact form, and select either "Tips, Rumors, Trades, Signings" or "Business Inquiries." If you'd like a reply, you'll have to put in a valid email address.
Week In Review: 10/30/11 – 11/5/11
Tonight is the deadline to enter your picks in MLBTR's Free Agent contest, so be sure to get them in for your chance to win your share of the prizes. Let's take a look back at the past seven days:
- Frank McCourt agreed to sell the Dodgers, and will seek approval from the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for an auction of the team. Earlier in the week we heard that Mark Cuban has interest in buying the team and could make a bid.
- The Yankees retained C.C. Sabathia before he even hit the open market by adding on an extra year at $25MM and a vesting option with a $5MM buyout. Here's some reactions to the signing.
- The Indians acquired Derek Lowe from the Braves in exchange for minor leaguer Chris Jones. The Braves are on the hook for $10MM of Lowe's salary, but managed to successfully save $5MM by shipping the veteran righty to Cleveland.
- Jim Thome is returning to the Phillies on a one-year deal worth $1.25MM.
- On Monday morning, Tony La Russa announced his retirement after 33 seasons as a manager. La Russa captured three World Championships in his career and won Manager of the Year four times.
- The Nationals announced on Monday that they've exercised manager Davey Johnson's option for 2012.
- The Giants and Javier Lopez have agreed to a two-year, $8.5MM contract and shortly thereafter exercised Jeremy Affeldt's $5MM club option for 2012.
- The Dodgers retained Juan Rivera by locking him up to a one-year deal worth $4.5MM.
- The Cubs exercised their $16MM option on Aramis Ramirez, but the slugging third baseman exercised a contractual right to void the option and forfeit his $2MM buyout. Ramirez, a projected Type B free agent, will explore the free agent market following a season in which he belted 26 homers and posted a .306/.361/.510 triple slash line.
- The Nationals also retained a player when they guaranteed Chien-Ming Wang $4MM on an incentive-laden one-year deal for the 2012 season.
- The Diamondbacks signed John McDonald to a two-year, $3MM deal and also inked Henry Blanco to a one-year deal worth $1.2MM. In addition to the on-field decisions, the club also extended both GM Kevin Towers and manager Kirk Gibson.
- The Brewers declined the $17.5MM option on Francisco Rodriguez and the $6MM option on Yuniesky Betancourt. The pair will receive buyouts of $3.5MM and $2MM, respectively.
- The Mets are prepared to offer Jose Reyes a four-year deal worth $60-$70MM, but their hope of retaining their superstar shortstop is dwindling.
- The Braves are open to moving both Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado, but a potential deal in which Atlanta tried to acquire Wil Myers and Lorenzo Cain from the Royals fell through.
- The Giants are open to trading Jonathan Sanchez, who should draw some interest given his high strikeout totals and the relative weakness of the free agent market.
- The Cardinals declined their options for Octavio Dotel and Rafael Furcal.
- The Red Sox exercised their $6MM option on Marco Scutaro for the 2012 season.
- C.J. Wilson said there is a "great" chance that he stays with the Rangers. The Yankees will also be in contact with Wilson.
- Roy Oswalt is in search of a multiyear deal, and the Nationals will be players for his services.
- The Marlins will make the starting rotation their top priority this offseason.
- The Phillies are said to be in "serious pursuit" of Michael Cuddyer, which could be bad news for the Twins and his many other suitors.
- The Diamondbacks exercised their sides of the mutual options for Henry Blanco and Willie Bloomquist, while declining their team options for Zach Duke and Aaron Hill. However, Bloomquist has declined his side of the mutual option and would like to work out a longer deal.
- The Blue Jays announced that they exercised their 2012 option for Edwin Encarnacion and declined their option for Jon Rauch.
- The Royals announced that they exercised their 2012 option for closer Joakim Soria. Soria will earn a $6MM salary, rather than a $750K buyout.
- The Reds exercised Brandon Phillips' 2012 option and declined their option for Francisco Cordero. The Reds will pay Cordero a $1MM buyout instead of a $12MM salary and they'll pay Phillips a $12MM salary instead of a $1MM buyout.
- The Padres announced they've declined their options on Aaron Harang, Brad Hawpe, and Chad Qualls. Only Harang was slightly in question as he had a $5MM mutual option with a $500K buyout.
- The Rays exercised Kyle Farnsworth's 2012 option while declining Kelly Shoppach's. Meanwhile, they exercised James Shields' $7.5MM option. Shields would not have been eligible for free agency if the Rays had declined the option. Instead, Tampa Bay would have gone to arbitration with Shields and he would have obtained a salary in excess of $7.5MM.
- Mariners reliever David Aardsma cleared waivers and elected free agency.
- The White Sox exercised their $3.75MM club option on reliever Jason Frasor.
- The Indians exercised their club option on Fausto Carmona and declined their option on Grady Sizemore. Carmona would have earned more than the $7MM option price as an arbitration eligible player, and the Indians made the expected choice to retain him.
- The Pirates announced they've declined club options on Paul Maholm, Chris Snyder, Ryan Doumit, and Ronny Cedeno. Cedeno was the one unknown of the bunch.
- The Rockies declined their 2012 option on righty Aaron Cook.
- The Rangers exercised their 2012 option for Yoshinori Tateyama and the right-hander will earn a $1MM salary in 2012.
- The Athletics will listen to offers on anyone except for Jemile Weeks. The speedy second baseman hit .303/.340/.421 and stole 22 bases in his solid but under-the-radar rookie season.
- The Yankees declined their 2012 option on righty Andrew Brackman.
- MLBTR obtained the official Elias Rankings for this upcoming offseason.