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Archives for December 2011

Quick Hits: Theriot, Smith, Athletics, Dodgers

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It’s been a quiet day from a transactions standpoint, but we’ve got some late night links to pass along as Tuesday turns into Wednesday…

  • The Rockies have some interest in free agent infielder Ryan Theriot, according to Troy Renck of the Denver Post (Twitter links). The Rockies are considering many options at second base and there’s no indication that the team is seriously pursuing Theriot at the moment, but it’s the first time he’s been linked to Colorado since the Cardinals non-tendered him earlier this month.
  • It’s “very likely” that the Rockies will trade Seth Smith before Opening Day, Renck writes.
  • Athletics managing partner Lew Wolff told Jane Lee and Barry M. Bloom of MLB.com that the club isn't any closer to moving to San Jose to his knowledge. "We're still looking for a 'yes' or 'no' answer," he said. USA Today recently reported that the A’s may soon obtain permission to move.
  • Free agent infielder Omar Vizquel suggested on Twitter that he wouldn't consider signing with the Mets. The 44-year-old has indicated that he would be interested in signing with the Giants.
  • Billionaire Steven Cohen is bidding for the Dodgers, according to Bill Shaikin of the LA Times. Agent Arn Tellem and former deputy commissioner Steve Greenberg are allies with Cohen, who has already met with some MLB owners, according to Shaikin.

The 80-89 Win Club

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Approximately one quarter of the teams in baseball won between 80 and 89 games last year. None of the seven clubs made the playoffs, but all of them were within striking distance of a postseason berth. The teams have had wildly different approaches to the 2011-12 offseason — at least so far. I've broken the clubs down into two groups, with their 2011 win totals in parentheses and links that send you to the club's offseason transactions summary:

Aggressive Spenders

Restrained Spenders

Two teams — the Cardinals and Tigers — graduated from the 80-89 win club to the postseason in 2011.

Extension Candidate: Cole Hamels

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Cole Hamels turns 28 today and by the time he turns 29 there’s a good chance he’ll have signed a new contract — either with the Phillies or as a free agent. The left-hander is one season away from hitting free agency for the first time in his career, so an extension with the Phillies is possible. Hamels has said he’d like to stay in Philadelphia and the Phillies have the need and resources to keep him in place.

Cole Hamels - Phillies

Hamels was born nine months before Matt Cain and drafted eight spots before the Giants right-hander. Both have distinguished themselves from the competition at the Major League level over the course of the past six seasons, but the question of which pitcher is more effective remains unanswered, as this comparison of their career stats shows. 

Cain, the harder thrower, has more innings to his name, more 200 inning seasons and a slight edge in career wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference. Hamels, who has the shinier win-loss record, induces more ground balls and has struck out more hitters per inning while allowing fewer walks.

When MLBTR’s Luke Adams examined a possible extension for Cain two days ago, he pointed out that the going rate for elite arms on long term deals falls in the $20MM per season range. Hamels hasn’t won a Cy Young Award like teammates Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay, so a contract north of $20MM may not be realistic at this point, when only one team — the Phillies — can bid. However, the Phils had the biggest payroll in the National League this past season, so it’s not as though they’ll have to ask Hamels for a hometown discount.

The Giants and Phillies valued Cain and Hamels similarly when they drafted them eight spots apart from one another nearly a decade ago. Even though the two high schoolers have since become some of the game’s best pitchers, their value relative to one another remains similar. A five-year, $100MM contract could work for Hamels and the Phillies, just as it could work for Cain and the Giants. 

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz estimates a 2012 salary of $14MM for Hamels through arbitration. Four free agent seasons at $20MM per year and a $5MM buyout for an option year would bring the value of a possible deal to the $100MM range. It’s probably less than what Hamels, a John Boggs and Associates client, could obtain on the open market if he delivers another strong season in 2012. But it would provide the left-hander with security and the opportunity to hit free agency again at the age of 32 — the same age Lee was when he signed for $120MM last offseason.

If there's one pitcher who's more comparable to Hamels than Cain, it's Jered Weaver, the Angels right-hander who signed a team-friendly five-year $85MM extension during the 2011 season. Baseball-Reference says Hamels and Weaver are each other's top statistical comparables, which means the Phillies can argue Hamels should earn $17.5MM per free agent season, just as Weaver will. However, Hamels has bargaining power since he's closer to free agency than Weaver was last summer and is starting from a higher 2011 salary. Plus, Hamels is a year younger than Weaver and his resume includes 13 excellent postseason starts and a World Series MVP award.

Hamels’ injury history could give the Phillies pause. He struggled with injuries as a minor leaguer and early in his MLB career, spent time on the 15-day DL this August due to left shoulder inflammation and had a hernia repaired and loose bodies removed from his pitching elbow after the season. To his credit, he has averaged 31 starts and 206 innings since 2007, his first full season in the Phillies' rotation.

While the Phillies might balk at the possibility of a rotation that includes three $20MM pitchers, GM Ruben Amaro Jr. spent upwards of $65MM on Philadelphia’s rotation this past season, proving his willingness to commit to starters. The club won 102 games behind a historically good pitching staff in 2011, so it won’t be a surprise if ownership is willing to spend on future rotations.

Now that the Phillies have addressed most of their offseason needs, the front office can focus on the possibility of an extension for Hamels over the course of the next few months. Don’t be surprised if five years and $100MM works for both sides. If not, Hamels will enter the 2012 season with the chance to become the most coveted pitcher of the 2012-13 offseason.

Photo courtesy Icon SMI.

Prince Fielder Rumors: Tuesday

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7:45pm: Boras told Bruce Levine of ESPNChicago.com that there's no chance Fielder would prefer a short-term deal. "Not only is that inaccurate and delusional, but it seems that some people have gotten into their New Year's Eve stash just a little bit early this year," he said. At least six teams appear to be interested in Fielder, Levine writes. "It appears some baseball people are just bored," Boras said. "That's when you hear ideas like that floated."

5:10pm: MLBTR readers expect Prince Fielder to sign a long-term deal, but some general managers think agent Scott Boras could try something else. Several GMs told Peter Gammons of MLB Network that they think Fielder could agree to a three-year deal worth $26MM per season then return to the free agent market as a 30-year-old (Twitter link).

Albert Pujols signed for $25.4MM per season earlier this month, establishing a record for first basemen. Pujols agreed to his ten-year deal during this year's Winter Meetings, where Boras argued that a long-term deal makes sense for Fielder and his suitors.

"People say ‘why don’t you do a three-year deal?,’" Boras told reporters. "That doesn’t fit anybody’s purposes. The length of contract has a lot to do with an understanding from both sides of what franchise players are and what they mean. The branding part, the media rights part — all of those things go into that and while the initial concept is shorter is better, the reality is with these types of players it’s usually not the best dynamic for the franchise."

It's been three weeks since the Winter Meetings took place, so it's possible Boras and Fielder have changed their approach. Based on Boras' comments and the scarcity of power bats available I still expect Fielder to sign a long-term deal. Fielder hasn't found the offer he's looking for so far, but he's the top free agent available and it appears likely that he will get long-term offers to his liking before the winter ends.

Yakult Swallows Sign Lastings Milledge

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The Tokyo Yakult Swallows have announced the signing of outfielder Lastings Milledge, according to a Sanspo report passed on by Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker. The deal is worth approximately $570K plus performance bonuses and includes a club option for 2013.

The Mets selected Milledge, now 26, with the 12th overall selection in the 2003 draft. He made the Major Leagues in 2006 and posted a .787 OPS in '07 as a 22-year-old. However the Mets traded him to Washington after the 2007 season and before long the Nationals sent him to Pittsburgh. Milledge signed with the White Sox before the 2011 season, but appeared in just two games for Chicago. He spent most of the season at Triple-A, where he posted a .295/.364/.441 line in 505 plate appearances.

Minor Moves: Mike Ballard

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The latest minor moves from around MLB…

  • The Nationals signed left-hander Mike Ballard to a minor league deal, according to MLB.com's Bill Ladson (on Twitter). Ballard, 27, posted a 3.84 ERA with 8.5 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 in 159 1/3 innings for the Orioles' top affiliates this past season. He has a 4.50 ERA with 6.7 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in six minor league seasons in the Rangers' and Orioles' systems.

What The Danks Extension Means For Garza

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John Danks and Matt Garza have a lot in common. Both are above-average MLB starters in their late-twenties who were traded early in their careers. They’re arguably the best starting pitchers on Chicago’s two teams, and Baseball-Reference suggests they’re about as statistically analogous as two players can be. 

Matt Garza

As this table shows, Danks and Garza have had remarkably similar careers to date. Their rate stats are comparable and their career win-loss records and innings totals are nearly indistinguishable (Garza has recorded 17 more outs than Danks over the course of their careers). Not surprisingly, the two CAA clients have been linked to one another for years through arbitration.

Danks just signed a five-year $65MM extension, and Garza's agent Nez Balelo no doubt took note, since his client doesn't yet have a long-term deal. Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein says he considers Garza a potential building block, so it's possible the Cubs will discuss an extension if they don't trade Garza this offseason.

Danks has 23 more days of service time than Garza and those three weeks matter a great deal from a contractual standpoint. Unlike Danks, Garza is a super two player. This means the Cubs control his rights for one extra year (through 2013) and means there’s less urgency to extend Garza.

Should the Cubs look to extend Garza, they’ll have more leverage than their cross-town rivals did, since the extra year of control buys Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer time. Garza projects to earn a total of $20MM or more in the next two years and the Cubs may look to buy out an additional two seasons for $14-15MM apiece if they explore a deal. Perhaps a four-year, $52MM deal would work for both sides.

Photo courtesy Icon SMI.

2011 Payrolls By Division

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Five days ago the Associated Press published 2011 payrolls for the 30 teams based on information sent by the clubs to the commissioner's office.  They explain:

Figures are for 40-man rosters and include salaries and pro-rated shares of signing bonuses, earned incentive bonuses, non-cash compensation, buyouts of unexercised options and cash transactions. In some cases, parts of salaries that are deferred are discounted to reflect present-day values.

$2,999,557,280 was spent in total, so the $100MM or so spent by the Rangers or Mariners is about average.  The Yankees, of course, led with a $216MM figure.  That's 4.85 times the Royals' payroll, which was the lowest at about $45MM.  Maury Brown has quality analysis of over at The Biz of Baseball.  Below I thought it'd be interesting to break down the spending by league and division.

American League: $104.7MM per team

  • AL East: $119.6MM per team
  • AL Central: $90.5MM per team
  • AL West: $103.9MM per team

National League: $95.8MM per team

  • NL East: $105.9MM per team
  • NL Central: $90.8MM per team
  • NL West: $88.5MM per team

Quick Hits: Beltran, Corpas, Dickey, Ross

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Six years ago today, the Diamondbacks officially traded third baseman Troy Glaus and shortstop prospect Sergio Santos to the Blue Jays for righty Miguel Batista and second baseman Orlando Hudson.  Josh Byrnes and J.P. Ricciardi were the respective GMs.  Glaus' retirement came with little fanfare despite 320 career home runs and four All-Star Game appearances.  Santos eventually found his way to the White Sox, who helped him become a successful reliever and recently traded him back to Toronto.  Batista is a 40-year-old free agent with 101 career wins to his name.  Hudson, a four-time Gold Glove winner, is a trade candidate for the Padres, the team Byrnes now heads up.  Ricciardi now serves as a special assistant to Mets GM Sandy Alderson, who appears to have interest in re-signing Batista.

MLBTR was less than two months old at the time of the Glaus trade; you can read my paragraph on it here.  Back then the site was a one-man show with gray text against a black background, and Twitter did not exist.  We've come a long way!  On to today's links…

Destinations For The Ten Best Remaining Free Agents

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Baseball executives A.J. Hinch and Kenny Williams each batted around .219 in their big league careers.  That may help you visualize how I'm doing in MLBTR's free agent prediction contest this offseason.  With 7 of 32 correct, I currently rank 922nd out of over 5,000 entries.  In contrast, MLBTR readers Kay Jay, David Silverberg, Alex Gregor, and Shaun O'Toole lead the pack, pulling .375 averages that even Ty Cobb couldn't manage in his career.

A look at my October 31st predictions also shows that top 25 free agents Prince Fielder, Edwin Jackson, Ryan Madson, Hiroki Kuroda, Carlos Pena, Roy Oswalt, Javier Vazquez, Coco Crisp, Hisashi Iwakuma, and Paul Maholm remain unsigned.  It's no coincidence that half of them are represented by the Boras Corporation.  Here are some possibilities for the 10 best free agents still on the market.

2.  Prince Fielder – $153MM over six years might allow Boras to save face, claiming the second-highest average annual value in baseball history even if it'd mean falling well short of the $200MM landmark.  Obviously, $180MM over seven years would be better and isn't crazy, while an opt-out could sweeten the deal for Fielder and let him hit free agency again as a 30-year-old.  As MLB.com's Richard Justice notes, the market for Fielder is plain mysterious at this point.  If there's an obvious candidate to vastly overpay for Fielder, they've yet to be revealed.  The Orioles, Mariners, and Cubs are in the mix to some extent.  Jon Heyman of CBS Sports has recently mentioned the Nationals and Rangers, though those teams are viewed as unlikely by other reporters.  The Cubs and Mariners remain the current favorites. 

6.  Edwin Jackson – Though his pitching record won't change, Jackson will look more and more appealing over the next few weeks to teams looking for a rotation upgrade.  In a December 25th MLBTR poll of almost 17,000 MLBTR readers, the Yankees were the top pick with 19% of a well-divided vote.  Four days ago, Heyman named the Yankees, Blue Jays, Orioles, Rockies, Marlins, and Tigers as teams looking for pitching.  The Pirates could be a dark horse, and if the Jackson market dips to around three years and $33MM more teams may jump in.  For EJax, things are just getting started.

14.  Ryan Madson – The Red Sox and Angels have been linked to Madson, who may or may not have been offered four years and $44MM by the Phillies before they signed Jonathan Papelbon.  If Madson is to find three years and $30MM, the Red Sox and Angels will have to start a bidding war.

15.  Hiroki Kuroda – If the Yankees take a pass, Kuroda could fall to the Red Sox, Cubs, or Hiroshima Carp.  One would think a half-dozen other teams would be in the mix for Kuroda on a one-year deal.

16.  Carlos Pena – It's been quiet on the Pena front, but he could work for the Rays, Indians, Cubs, or Brewers if the price falls.  I think another one-year deal is in order.

18.  Roy Oswalt – Six days ago, Heyman named the Red Sox, Marlins, Blue Jays, and Yankees as Oswalt suitors, excluding other teams that acquired starters since then.  On a one-year deal, any would-be contender could conceivably jump in.

19.  Javier Vazquez – Four days ago, MLB.com's Joe Frisaro said Vazquez maintains he is retiring.

21.  Coco Crisp – Crisp seeks a multiyear deal from a contender, and the Cubs and Dodgers could be possibilities.  The Marlins or Nationals could offer him the chance to stay in center field.

22.  Hisashi Iwakuma – My ranking for Iwakuma was probably too high; he might be looking at a one-year deal.  Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reported two teams have viable interest in the righty, but the A's are lukewarm on him.

25.  Paul Maholm – I think Maholm will be able to find a two-year contract.  The Cubs were in the mix prior to adding Travis Wood and Andy Sonnanstine.  The Rockies have options, but they could still be a fit.  

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