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Heyman On Beltre, Wilson, Orioles

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The Rangers’ front office has recovered from some blunders (trading Adrian Gonzalez, for example) to become a group known for its shrewd decision making, Jon Heyman writes at SI.com. GM Jon Daniels and assistants such as Thad Levine and A.J. Preller had a successful offseason, acquiring Mike Napoli in a trade and signing Adrian Beltre away from the Angels, who play 45 minutes from the third baseman’s home. Here’s the latest from Heyman:

  • The Rangers are pleased with Beltre so far, according to president Nolan Ryan. "He's done what we'd hoped he do,'' Ryan said. Dave Cameron of FanGraphs recently made the case that Beltre has solidified his place as one of the best players in baseball.
  • One Rangers person says the odds are “40-60” that the Rangers will be able to re-sign C.J. Wilson after the season.
  • Yesterday I examined the moves that led to the Rangers’ second consecutive ALCS appearance.
  • Buck Showalter, who has flown to Texas, appears to be deciding between the Orioles’ GM job and their manager job, according to Heyman.
  • Blue Jays first base coach Torey Lovullo may not be a fit as Boston’s next manager, according to Heyman. However, GM Theo Epstein will consider candidates with limited MLB managing experience.

Matt Moore’s Service Time

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The Rays' season is over, but Desmond Jennings and Matt Moore showed late this year that the 2012 edition of the team should once again feature electrifying talent. Even Tampa Bay players seem eager to see what Moore can do over the course of an entire season. One of them jokingly suggested to Yahoo's Jeff Passan that he'll take action if Moore isn't on the Rays' Opening Day roster next year.

"If they do that, I'll file a grievance," the player said.

Judging by Moore's minor league accomplishments and Major League success, he has earned the chance to continue pitching in the Majors. The 22-year-old lefty posted a 1.92 ERA with 12.2 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 in 155 minor league innings this year, solidifying his place as one of the top pitching prospects in the game. Minor league hitters weren't the only ones who struggled to hit Moore; in 19 1/3 MLB innings (regular season and playoffs combined), he replicated his minor league success, posting a 1.86 ERA with 10.8 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9.

It's no secret that the Rays are struggling financially. Owner Stuart Sternberg said the Rays' revenue and stadium situation is "untenable as a model going forward," so every dollar and year of control matters a great deal in Tampa Bay. If the upcoming collective bargaining agreement doesn't adapt the current rules regarding arbitration and free agent eligibility, there would be an incentive for Tampa Bay to keep Moore in the minor leagues for a month to start next year – it would delay his arrival on the free agent market.

He picked up 17 days of service time in 2011, which means he'll have a full year of service after 2012 if he spends 155 days or more on the MLB roster or DL next year (pending the upcoming CBA). The MLB season generally lasts a little more than 180 days, so the Rays could ensure that Moore falls short of 155 days by optioning him to Durham for a month or so. He doesn't appear to need the seasoning, but that month would delay his free agency by one year (from 2017 to 2018).

This is not to imply that service time will be the lone, or primary consideration for the Rays in 2012. There are even baseball related reasons for keeping Moore in the minors (limiting innings, the diminished importance of fifth starters in April). The Rays want to win and have a team capable of contending again next year, so service time isn't everything. Plus, if they cared that much about delaying arbitration payouts and free agency, they would never have called Moore up to begin with.

Injuries, offseason moves and the CBA will presumably influence the Rays decision as well as service time. But for a team that can't afford free agent aces, the idea of extending control over top homegrown arms will likely have appeal.

Outrighted To Triple-A: Astros, Rottino, Sanches, Cubs

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Here are the latest outrighted players…

  • The Astros announced that they outrighted left-hander Xavier Cedeno and right-handers Blake King and Lance Pendleton off of the 40-man roster. Pendleton can elect free agency and Cedeno will become a free agent after the World Series, according to Footer.
  • The Marlins outrighted outfielder Vinny Rottino and right-hander Brian Sanches to Triple-A, according to Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post (on Twitter). The Marlins' 40-man roster is now at 38. MLBTR's Tim Dierkes had projected Sanches for a salary in the $1MM range when he reviewed Florida's arbitration class last month. Tim predicted that the Marlins could let Sanches go instead of going to arbitration with him for the first time.
  • The Cubs outrighted right-handers Justin Berg and Brian Schlitter to Triple-A Iowa, according to MLB.com's transactions page. They had designated the pair for assignment six days ago to create 40-man roster space for Carlos Zambrano. Schlitter didn't appear in a game for the Cubs this year, but Berg pitched 12 innings in April and May.

AL East Links: Damon, MacPhail, Granderson

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Four of the AL East's teams are in offseason mode, while the Yankees prepare for the deciding ALDS game five against the Tigers tomorrow.  Non-Red Sox links from the division:

Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs

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The Cubs are at a crossroads this offseason, as they seek a new GM and face the temptation of adding more big free agent contracts.

Guaranteed Contracts

Contract Options

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Free Agents

The Cubs were a $134MM disaster in 2011.  Despite all their spending the team hasn't reached the playoffs since '08.  This summer they fired longtime GM Jim Hendry, whose teams made the playoffs in three of nine seasons.  Owner Tom Ricketts seeks a more analytically-inclined GM to craft the roster.  His other criteria include a commitment to player development and a track record of success.  Ricketts has pledged silence during the ongoing search, but reports suggest he's initially targeting current GMs such as Theo Epstein and Andrew Friedman.  The job security of Mike Quade is in question as well, as a new GM may want to hire a new manager.

The new GM will have to spend free agent dollars wisely, which was often a problem for Hendry in recent years.  A steady payroll for 2012 could give the Cubs a hefty $40MM to work with in 2012 salaries.  The possibility of a quick turnaround tempts Ricketts, who referenced the Diamondbacks' success in a recent interview.  The D'Backs were fairly restrained in free agency last winter, but the Cubs are in a position to throw around some cash in the coming months.  The potential areas to upgrade are plentiful, with openings at the infield corners, right field, the rotation, and in the bullpen.

The Cubs may have to make a concession at third base.  The opportunity to re-sign Ramirez — easily the best free agent third baseman available — to a below-market contract hasn't motivated them, and the team's offense will suffer without him.  The first base market is appealing, with superstars Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder options to take up more than half of the Cubs' payroll flexibility.  With such a clear rotation need, though, the Cubs could lower their sights at first base and re-sign Pena or pursue Michael Cuddyer.  Cuddyer's versatility could be a nice match for the Cubs, who have openings at all his positions.

The Cubs appear intent on unloading Zambrano, whose performance is probably worth a few million dollars to some team.  Chone Figgins could be a reasonable target given the Cubs' third base vacancy and the limited options at that position, though the Mariners would have to be willing to take another potential head case from the Cubs.  Assuming Dempster returns, he'll join Garza and Wells in the rotation.  If a quick fix is the goal the Cubs would be best-served by shopping in the high-end section of the market: C.C. Sabathia, C.J. Wilson, or Yu Darvish.  On the other hand, signing any of the potential $100MM+ players this offseason would hardly break the Cubs' cycle of piling on burdensome contracts.

I can't picture the Cubs slashing payroll given their attendance and rabid fanbase, but I'm also not convinced they're going to come away with Pujols, Fielder, Sabathia, Wilson, or Darvish.  With so many needs, the Cubs could easily spread their surplus among four or five veterans.  Other big-market teams have shown an ability to contend and improve the farm system simultaneously, a strategy the Cubs appeared to finally initiate with a slew of over-slot signings in the June draft.

Rockies Rumors: Stewart, Wright, Headley, Alvarez

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The Rockies pick tenth in next year's draft, a pick that will be protected if they sign a Type A free agent who turned down arbitration this offseason.  The latest on the team, from Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post:

  • Kevin Kouzmanoff is unlikely to return to the Rockies next year.  MLBTR reported yesterday that the team is in the process of outrighting the third baseman.  Ian Stewart will get another shot at the third base job if he "makes baseball his first priority from the start of the winter until the end of it," GM Dan O'Dowd told Renck.  The Rockies will need to make a decision on Stewart by the December 12th non-tender deadline though.  Tendering him a contract probably means paying him around $2.2MM again.
  • Opposing executives expect O'Dowd to aggressively pursue Mets third baseman David Wright.  Otherwise Renck expects the Rockies to cast a wide net, including the Padres' Chase Headley and the Pirates' Pedro Alvarez but not free agent Aramis Ramirez.  I have a hard time imagining the Padres sending Headley to their division rival; the two teams haven't matched up for an offseason trade since the Rockies' inaugural season.
  • The Rockies are looking to trade Ty Wigginton even it means eating some of the $4.5MM owed to him.
  • Renck reiterates that the Rockies seek an innings eater this offseason.

Red Sox Rumors: Managerial Candidates, Epstein, Pitching

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The Red Sox are in the news every day right now; here's the latest…

  • The Sox have not finalized a list of managerial candidates to interview, reports WEEI's Rob Bradford.  Name candidates such as Joe Torre, Tony La Russa, and Bobby Valentine are not thought to be on Boston's list, writes Sean McAdam of CSNNE.com.  Instead, the top candidates appear to be Dave Martinez, Pete Mackanin, and Sandy Alomar Jr.  It seems possible that the Red Sox will have to go head-to-head with the White Sox in their manager search.  McAdam notes that as a member of the coaching staff of former manager Terry Francona, DeMarlo Hale is unlikely to be interviewed.  
  • The Cubs asked the Red Sox permission to speak with GM Theo Epstein, reported Dan Shaughnessy of the Boston Globe yesterday.  Red Sox management spent the day discussing the request; WCVB TV's Mike Lynch wrote that they could ask for compensation just to talk to Epstein, or they could collect compensation later.
  • The relationship between Epstein and Red Sox president Larry Lucchino has gotten much better, according to Peter Gammons.
  • Bradford takes an in-depth look at the Red Sox pitching staff.  He finds the team unlikely to pursue a big-name starting pitcher.  Bradford feels Daniel Bard and Alfredo Aceves could be starting candidates next year, Andrew Miller's $3MM option will be exercised, and Tim Wakefield might have to continue his career elsewhere.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Clint Barmes

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Clint Barmes ranks eighth among all free agent position players in FanGraphs' wins above replacement for 2011, after Jimmy Rollins and Aramis Ramirez but before Michael Cuddyer and Marco Scutaro.  Not bad for a guy I considered a non-tender candidate a year ago.

Barmes

Barmes (pictured) ended up a bright spot for the Astros, mainly because he was able to play a capable shortstop for a thousand innings.  That's where most of the WAR value comes from, rather than Barmes' .244/.312/.386 batting line.  He played 123 games for the Astros, missing most of April due to a broken bone in his hand.

Credit the Astros for recognizing Barmes' value as a shortstop, a position he hadn't played regularly for Colorado once Troy Tulowitzki arrived.  Barmes has said he'd like to return to the Astros, but GM Ed Wade isn't sure if the team's economic environment will allow it.

Omar Infante's two-year, $8MM extension with the Marlins seems a fair comparable for Barmes and the Astros.  The Astros should at least offer arbitration to Barmes, assuming our projection that he just barely made the cut for Type B status is accurate.  Above-average shortstops are hard to come by on the open market, though at least two others will be available in free agency this winter in Jose Reyes and Rollins.  If the Astros fail to sign Barmes, he could be a more affordable alternative for the Twins, Braves, Phillies, Brewers, Pirates, Cardinals, or Giants.      

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

Offseason Outlook: Miami Marlins

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Prepare for the most exciting Marlins offseason in recent memory.  With new manager Ozzie Guillen's arrival and the opening of the team's new ballpark, ownership wants to make 2012 unforgettable.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Free Agents

To compete in the NL East next year, the Marlins will need improved starting pitching, offense, and health.  Clearly, this team is looking for a fresh start in 2012 as they've been rebranded the Miami Marlins, and quote machine Guillen will man the helm.  Most importantly, the team's payroll will be the largest in franchise history.

The six players under guaranteed contracts account for $49.75MM in salary, which is only $8MM shy of 2011's Opening Day payroll.  Estimating the price of the club's ten-player arbitration class is a difficult exercise.  I think we can pencil in Sanchez, Bonifacio, Mujica, and Badenhop for about $10.5MM, but that leaves the remaining six as candidates for non-tender or trade.  Oviedo, formerly known as closer Leo Nunez prior to the revelation of his commitment of identity fraud, was already the highest-paid reliever in Marlins history in 2011.  He could receive a $2MM+ raise and his 2012 team must request a visa for him to play next year, which could seal the fate of Oviedo, who was already on the bubble as a non-tender candidate.  If Oviedo is not retained, the remaining arbitration eligibles won't be too costly.

Subtracting Oviedo and Vazquez and otherwise keeping the Marlins the same will already result in over $65MM in commitments, a franchise payroll record.  Recently, a person close to the Marlins' front office told Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post the 2012 payroll could approach $100MM, as owner Jeffrey Loria aims to make 2012 unforgettable.  If Loria follows through, the result would be an additional $35MM in payroll flexibility, which could be further expanded if the team trades Nolasco.  However, with Vazquez and his 192 2/3 innings of 3.69 ERA ball potentially headed for retirement and ace Josh Johnson limited to 60 1/3 innings in 2011 due to a shoulder injury, a Nolasco trade could add uncertainty to a situation already bursting with it.

I expect president of baseball operations Larry Beinfest to actively seek starting pitching, especially if he's bearish about the futures of Nolasco and Volstad.  Several interesting rotation scenarios have been tossed around, from Guillen bringing in old Chicago friends Mark Buehrle and Carlos Zambrano to the Marlins winning the bidding on C.J. Wilson.  The bullpen should have many holdovers, but new blood is likely if Oviedo is non-tendered. 

Questions in the Marlins' offense also abound, as center field and third base are unsettled.  The team's top prospect  Matt Dominguez wouldn't represent a "win-now" choice at the hot corner, but Aramis Ramirez, the one desirable free agent third baseman, could block Dominguez for three years.  Coco Crisp is probably the only viable free agent option for center field, but the trade market may feature B.J. Upton and Denard Span.  Internally, Bryan Petersen could hold equal appeal.

Another potential route for the Marlins would be signing a big-name free agent and trading Gaby Sanchez or Logan Morrison for pitching.  Both players had respectable 2011 seasons, showing decent pop and on-base ability.  Sanchez may still be on notice because the free agent market offers a pair of first-base superstars in Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder.  With Morrison, there's speculation that the outspoken left fielder's questionable August demotion could be a precursor to a trade.  I think the Marlins have too many offensive question marks to sell low on LoMo.

The Marlins may achieve temporary media relevance with Guillen and a couple of pricey free agents, as they look to go all-in for the opening of their new stadium.  Ultimately, though, the biggest additions to the 2012 club may be healthy seasons from Ramirez and Johnson.

Twins Notes: Thome, Nathan, Cuddyer

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Twins general manager Bill Smith answered questions from Minnesota’s season ticket holders on a conference call tonight and Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune has the details on what we should expect from the club this offseason: 

  • The Twins are looking for starting pitching, bullpen help and a backup catcher who can contribute offensively.
  • It’s unlikely that Smith will try to re-sign Jim Thome, who collected his 600th career home run with the Twins before finishing the season in Cleveland.
  • Even if the Twins don’t pick up Joe Nathan’s $12.5MM option for 2012, they’re interested in bringing him back next year. The right-hander has expressed a willingness to stay in the Minnesota organization.
  • Though they’ll consider internal shortstop candidates such as Alexi Casilla, Trevor Plouffe and Tsuyoshi Nishioka, the Twins could acquire a shortstop from outside of the organization.
  • The Twins have had some talks with prospective free agent Michael Cuddyer and hope to re-sign him. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes examined Cuddyer's free agent stock last month.

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