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Potential Suitors For Aramis Ramirez

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Aramis Ramirez is looking for a multiyear deal this offseason and it sounds like he’s prepared to test the market if the Cubs don’t re-sign him first. The Cubs have a $16MM option for the 33-year-old in 2012 ($2MM buyout). If they pick up the option, Ramirez will have to decide whether to accept or decline and become a free agent. 

He has a .304/.356/.508 line with 25 homers, so other teams would figure to have interest, especially since he probably won't cost a draft pick. Here’s a look at some of the suitors agent Paul Kinzer may hear from this offseason…

Apparent Fits

  • Cubs – Though Ramirez says he’d like to stay in Chicago, it will be hard to determine the team’s interest until they complete their search for a new general manager.
  • Orioles – Chris Davis is auditioning at third base and Mark Reynolds has moved to first. The Orioles could elect to keep that pair in place instead of pursuing Ramirez. Keep in mind that they’re likely to have someone other than Andy MacPhail running baseball operations this offseason.
  • Tigers – Brandon Inge is under contract for 2012 and Wilson Betemit hits free agency this offseason. Despite Inge’s success since returning from the minor leagues, he no longer appears to be the long-term answer for the Tigers. Promising 19-year-old Nick Castellanos just finished his first pro season and has yet to play above Class A.
  • Angels – Alberto Callaspo has a knack for getting on base, so the Angels aren’t desperate. That said, they had interest in Adrian Beltre last offseason, which suggests GM Tony Reagins would consider upgrading over Callaspo.

Other Possibilities

  • Reds – The Reds would discuss Ramirez if he hits free agency, according to Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune. Scott Rolen is under contract for $6.5MM in 2012 and the powerful Juan Francisco is another intriguing option.
  • Rockies – The Rockies don’t have a long-term solution at third. Ian Stewart, Kevin Kouzmanoff and Jordan Pacheco are some more affordable internal options for Colorado GM Dan O’Dowd to consider.
  • Brewers – Casey McGehee's production has fallen off, though third base doesn't figure to be Milwaukee's offseason focus.
  • Dodgers – It's hard to say how liberally the Dodgers will be able to spend this offseason. They could decide to look for more offense than Casey Blake (out for the year after undergoing surgery for a nerve issue) and Juan Uribe (.557 OPS) offered at third.
  • Astros – The Astros aren’t likely to spend big this offseason, regardless of if and when Jim Crane officially becomes the new owner. Chris Johnson has just a .650 OPS, though he is considerably cheaper than Ramirez.
  • Marlins – The Marlins move to a new stadium next year, so they could have interest in Ramirez despite the presence of slick-fielding prospect Matt Dominguez.
  • Athletics – Scott Sizemore has been a pleasant surprise for the Athletics, another team that pursued Beltre last winter. In theory the A’s could shift Sizemore into a utility role, but free agent hitters aren’t generally drawn to Oakland.
  • White Sox – Ramirez likes Chicago and he offers more offense than Brent Morel. There’s talk that the White Sox may have to lower payroll, in which case another major free agent acquisition would seem unlikely.

Minor Moves: Buente, Hendrickson, Ward

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As I showed earlier today in my 10 Best Minor League Deals Of The Year post, minor moves sometimes have a major impact.  Today's latest:

10 Best Minor League Deals Of The Year

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Minor league deals are low-risk propositions for teams; the player must earn every inning or plate appearance.  Here are MLBTR's ten best minor league deals of 2011.

  1. Bartolo Colon, Yankees.  He didn't pitch at all in the Majors in 2010, but this year Colon has a 3.33 SIERA in 152 innings.  He's been a major cog in the Yankees' rotation.  Some of his success may be owed to offseason stem cell treatments, which Yankees GM Brian Cashman was not aware of at the time of the signing.
  2. Casey Kotchman, Rays.  Kotchman has positioned himself nicely for a Major League deal by hitting .313/.381/.432 in 506 plate appearances and assuming the Rays' regular first base job.  His OBP ranks eighth in the American League.
  3. Ryan Vogelsong, Giants.  The least likely All-Star of 2011, Vogelsong ranks fifth in the NL with a 2.66 ERA in 162 1/3 innings.
  4. Freddy Garcia, Yankees.  Colon and Garcia have provided the Yankees 280 innings of 3.63 ball.  Baseball's biggest spenders got a ton of bang for their buck on minor league deals this year.
  5. Jesus Guzman, Padres.  Playing mostly first base for San Diego, Guzman has mashed to a .320/.377/.493 line, knocking in 42 runs in 247 plate appearances.
  6. Endy Chavez, Rangers.  Chavez hadn't appeared in the Majors since tearing his ACL in June of '09, but he's given the Rangers almost 500 innings in center field and a .291/.317/.430 line.
  7. Guillermo Mota, Giants.  Mota has provided the Giants 73 1/3 innings with a 3.12 SIERA.  He ranks seventh in baseball in relief innings.
  8. Jose Veras, Pirates.  With 67 2/3 innings and a 3.10 SIERA, Veras has been a great find for the Pirates' bullpen.  Plus, he's arbitration eligible.
  9. Reed Johnson, Cubs.  Johnson has played all three outfield positions for the Cubs and hasn't shown much of a platoon split in crafting a .325/.361/.496 line in 246 plate appearances. 
  10. Jack Hannahan, Indians.  Hannahan's ability to play a capable third base and post a .330 OBP for the Tribe created a lot of value.

Honorable mentions: Dontrelle Willis (extra credit for offense), Jason Giambi, Laynce Nix, Greg Dobbs, Jose Constanza, Shelley Duncan, Aaron Miles, Eric Chavez, Kevin Millwood, Jerome Williams, Cory Wade, Tim Byrdak, Luis Ayala, Mike MacDougal, Jamey Wright, Jason Isringhausen.

Arbitration Eligibles: Los Angeles Angels

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The Angels are next in our arbitration eligibles series.

Mathis is a non-tender candidate, though the Angels retained him last year and his performance hasn't changed much.  His salary would be virtually the same, around $1.8MM.  Though it's only been 30 innings, Williams has done a nice job and would cost only $700K or so to retain.

The Angels' entire projected infield (aside from Mark Trumbo) is arbitration eligible.  Having missed all of 2011, Morales projects to stay at the same salary, $2.975MM.  We've got Kendrick for $5.1MM, Aybar for $4.5MM, and Callaspo for $3MM.  The middle infield tandem of Kendrick and Aybar will be entering their walk years.

If Mathis is cut loose, the Angels' five arbitration eligible players could cost $16.275MM.  Adding in players under contract for 2012, the team's commitments could total about $118MM not including minimum salary players.  The Angels' Opening Day payroll in 2011 was about $23MM above that point, so GM Tony Reagins should have flexibility this winter.   

Possible Type A Free Agents

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Our latest Elias Rankings projections are up, and 26 free agents are in line for Type A status:

Heath Bell
Carlos Beltran
Lance Berkman
Robinson Cano
Matt Capps
Francisco Cordero
Michael Cuddyer
Ryan Dempster
Kyle Farnsworth
Prince Fielder
Ramon Hernandez
Ryan Madson
Yadier Molina
Darren Oliver
David Ortiz
Roy Oswalt
Jonathan Papelbon
Brandon Phillips
Albert Pujols
Jose Reyes
Francisco Rodriguez
C.C. Sabathia
Rafael Soriano
Nick Swisher
Jose Valverde
Josh Willingham

In addition, Vladimir Guerrero, Kelly Johnson, Jimmy Rollins, Omar Infante, Adam Wainwright, Takashi Saito, and Octavio Dotel are near the Type A/B borderline.

The current list of 26 should shrink quite a bit. Options for Cano, Dempster, Farnsworth, Molina, Phillips, Soriano, Swisher, and Valverde are likely to take them off the free agent market.

Of the 18 remaining, not everyone will get an arbitration offer.  Beltran contractually can't be offered, and there's a chance players such as Bell and Hernandez won't receive offers.  It's likely that Capps, Cordero, Oswalt, and Rodriguez will not receive offers either.  That drops the pool to about 11 free agents who would carry the cost of a draft pick.  To sign a star like Fielder, Pujols, Reyes, or Sabathia, that's typically a minor factor.  For the others, it reduces their bargaining power a bit.

Elias Rankings Update

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After the season the Elias Sports Bureau will take all players over the 2010-11 period, divide them into five groups for each league, and rank them based on various statistics.  Then each player will be labeled a Type A, B, or none.  Those designations and the possible accompanying arbitration offers determine draft pick compensation (click here for a refresher).

Eddie Bajek has reverse-engineered the Elias rankings, and he's providing that information exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  Nearly all of the data is in; here's a look at how the players rank for the period beginning with the 2010 season running through September 11th, 2011.  Click here to view the rankings directly if you can't see them below.

Cubs Rumors: Aramis, Jocketty, LaHair

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The Cubs currently project for the seventh overall pick in next year's draft.  Once that is determined, things should get interesting on the North Side.  The latest:

  • The Reds will discuss the idea of signing third baseman Aramis Ramirez if he reaches free agency, writes Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune.  I think signing Ramirez would really push the Reds' payroll to the limit, assuming they also pick up Brandon Phillips' club option.  The Cubs must decide between Ramirez's $16MM club option and a $2MM buyout within five days of the end of the World Series, so the team's new GM may not yet be in place.  After the Cubs decide, Ramirez has five days to make his choice on the option (declining would mean forfeiting the buyout).  Ramirez wants to stay, but he recently told ESPNChicago.com's Bruce Levine he desires a two or three-year deal. 
  • One scenario raised during informal discussions (presumably ones including owner Tom Ricketts) has the Cubs hiring current Reds GM Walt Jocketty, which could then lead to the team snaring Tony La Russa to manage and Albert Pujols to play first base, writes Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times.  Jocketty declined to comment, saying that he's happy in Cincinnati, but also lavished praise on the Cubs job and noted that the team extending farm director Oneri Fleita "shouldn't be" a hindrance.  Wittenmyer says the Cubs are gathering information on Andrew Friedman, Billy Beane, Dan Evans, and Ned Colletti so far.  Ricketts has yet to ask permission to speak to any GM under contract, writes Levine.  In a chat conducted yesterday, Levine guessed Rick Hahn would be the next Cubs' GM.
  • Also in that chat, Levine wrote that Ricketts has identified the Cubs' primary need to be two or three starting pitchers.  The beat writer does not think the team will spend their money this offseason on position players.  He predicts a payroll in the $120-130MM range.
  • Numerous Japanese teams have been scouting and are prepared to make offers to Cubs first baseman Bryan LaHair, reports Levine.  LaHair is intrigued but hopes to remain in the Majors.  The 28-year-old snagged Pacific Coast League MVP honors by hitting .331/.405/.664 with 38 home runs in 523 plate appearances, and he's carried that success to the bigs in an eight-game stint.  Former Cubs first baseman Micah Hoffpauir went the Japan route a year ago, but is hitting .245/.325/.429 for the Nippon Ham Fighters this year.

Cards Lone Team To Embrace September Extensions

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Since John Mozeliak became St. Louis’ general manager after the 2007 season, four Major League players have signed extensions during the month of September and all of them have been Cardinals. Kyle Lohse (2008), Ryan Franklin (2009), Trever Miller (2009) and, now, Chris Carpenter all signed multiyear deal with St. Louis during the final month of the regular season. 

Teams and players agree to most extensions during the first half of the calendar year, after the free agent frenzy calms down and before the regular season builds much momentum. Many players do agree to extensions during the season, but September is generally a quiet month for the deals. Not so for the Cardinals. Mozeliak told me that he's “just trying to get a head start on the offseason,” which makes sense given what lies ahead. 

Albert Pujols, the Cardinals’ franchise player, hits free agency this offseason. The Cards will have to devote much of their attention to the negotiations with Dan Lozano, the agent for the three-time MVP. They’ve answered questions about their 2012 rotation by locking Carpenter up, so their offseason outlook becomes that much simpler.

John McDonald (Blue Jays, 2007), Ryan Dempster (Cubs, 2005), Scott Rolen (Cardinals, 2002) and Vladimir Guerrero (Expos, 1998) are other prominent MLB players who signed September extensions at one point.

Quick Hits: Konerko, Cameron, Rockies

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Congratulations to Tim Wakefield, who won his 200th career game tonight. Here are this evening's links, starting with updates on two players who were traded for one another 13 years ago…

  • White Sox first baseman Paul Konerko told Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports that he might retire after 2013, when his current contract expires. The 35-year-old has a terrific .308/.395/.528 line with 29 homers in the first season of the three-year, $37.5MM deal he signed last offseason.
  • The Marlins released Mike Cameron because of conduct detrimental to the team, according to MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro. 
  • The Braves have increased the responsibilities of three front office members following the departure of director of player personnel Kurt Kemp, according to Carroll Rogers of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Assistant GM Bruce Manno will oversee player development, Ronnie Richardson was promoted to director of minor league operations and John Coppolella was promoted to director of professional scouting.
  • Troy Renck of the Denver Post can see the Rockies pursuing Michael Cuddyer and Josh Willingham this offseason (Twitter links). 
  • Renck also suggests Jason Hammel is available. Hammel's strikeout rate (5.0 K/9) and ground ball rate (43.5%) dropped this season, while his ERA (4.91) and walk rate (3.7 BB/9) rose, so his trade value is considerably lower than it would have been last winter. The 29-year-old is under contract for $4.75MM in 2012.
  • Fernando Rodney told Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles.com that he would have liked more chances to close with the Angels this year. The right-hander will look to sign with a team that can provide him with more regular work when his two-year contract expires after the season.

AL East Notes: Blue Jays, Orioles, Youkilis

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Links from the AL East, on a night that the Rays are taking on the Orioles and rooting hard for the Blue Jays to defeat the Red Sox. The latest links from their division…

  • The Blue Jays and Orioles aren’t in the pennant race, but there’s lots of intrigue in Toronto and Baltimore as the season winds down, Tyler Kepner of the New York Times writes. 
  • Within the piece (which is well worth your time) Kepner notes that the Blue Jays plan to offer arbitration to Kelly Johnson after the season and hears that Jeremy Guthrie would like to pitch 1,000 more Major League innings.
  • Johnson, who has a .210/.290/.408 line in 555 plate appearances with the D'Backs and Blue Jays, projects as a Type A free agent in the American League, according to our latest rankings. I won't be surprised if he accepts arbitration, but there are no guarantees for the Blue Jays since this year's class of free agent second basemen isn't strong.
  • Kevin Youkilis of the Red Sox will play out the 2011 season and will likely undergo offseason surgery for a hernia, as Alex Speier writes at WEEI.com.

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