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Offseason In Review: San Francisco Giants

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The Giants traded for a pair of starting outfielders and spent their free agent money on left-handed relievers.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

The Giants' pitching staff held strong in 2011, but their offense plummeted to a National League-worst 3.52 runs scored per game.  Brian Sabean, baseball's longest-tenured GM, attacked the problem by acquiring Cabrera and Pagan via trade.

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Jonathan Sanchez was once considered an excellent trade chip, but after an injury and walk-filled 2011, Cabrera (pictured) was probably the best hitter Sabean could get for him.  The Giants' rotation won't miss a beat with the loss.  Sabean might have bought high on Cabrera, who hit .305/.339/.470 in 706 plate appearances for the Royals last year.  But for an offense-starved team like the Giants, Cabrera might end up batting third.  Melky doesn't have the speed to play an above-average center field.  He'll be well-served by a move to left field — Giants vice president of baseball operations Bobby Evans told MLBTR he thinks Cabrera will be one of the league's best defenders at the position.

Sabean then traded for the Mets' Pagan, at the expense of Torres and Ramirez.  Pagan and Torres were both valuable outfielders in 2010 who slipped offensively and defensively in '11.  Did the Giants bet on the right horse, especially given that they had to throw in Ramirez to get Torres, lost a year of control with Pagan, and will pay Pagan $2.15MM more in 2012?  Pagan is three and a half years younger and has a longer track record as an above-average hitter, so it seems the Giants made the right call.  The market didn't offer Sabean much in the way of alternatives — Coco Crisp isn't notably better, and other trade targets seemed to have excessive prices.

The Giants had an excellent bullpen in 2011, and Sabean chose to keep it intact aside from trading Ramirez.  Mota was a bargain to retain, but the Giants had to pay full sticker price to keep lefties Lopez and Affeldt.  Lopez, 34, was lightly-regarded two years ago when the Pirates signed him for $775K.  Since then he's gotten the job done with a 2.52 ERA and huge groundball rates over 110 2/3 innings.  He's still best-employed as a lefty specialist, however, and giving him $4.25MM a year was uninspired.  Around the same time the Giants faced a similar decision for Affeldt, whose option had a $4.5MM net price.  Affeldt is similar to Lopez, and the Giants chose to pay full price for both.  Evans told MLBTR it was a matter of depth, with the expectation of having to trade one reliever (ultimately Ramirez) and injury question marks for Brian Wilson and Dan Runzler.

Brandon Crawford will be the Giants' starting shortstop, with Ryan Theriot and perhaps Joaquin Arias pitching in.  Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins, Clint Barmes, Rafael Furcal, and Jed Lowrie were available this winter, but the Giants chose not to upgrade.  Evans told MLBTR the Giants explored the market but didn't get heavy, as they entered the offseason hoping Crawford would be their guy.  Both middle infield spots may continue to be offensive black holes, if Freddy Sanchez misses significant time due to injury again.  

Projected first baseman Aubrey Huff was an easy out in 2011, but the Giants have an intriguing backup plan in Brandon Belt.  Manager Bruce Bochy's decision two years ago to bench Aaron Rowand in favor of Torres is evidence that contracts don't make out the lineup card, Evans told MLBTR.  Overall it's difficult to picture the Giants having an above-average offense in 2012, but it'll be surprising if they can't manage more than 570 runs this time around.

Having been out of MLB for four years, Vogelsong must have been eager to take the Giants' guaranteed $8.3MM.  The Giants seem to be banking that he can become a consistent 4.00 ERA type pitcher, in which case the price will be acceptable, if not a bargain.  Lincecum's days as a bargain are ending as well, as his new deal has salaries of $18MM and $22MM.  The Giants still saved a few million, while Lincecum retained control of his free agent years.  Lincecum was reportedly seeking seven or eight years on a longer deal, and I don't blame the Giants for holding off.  Lincecum became an ace so early in his career that by 2014 the Giants will have gotten the best of him.

Signing Matt Cain is a more pressing issue, since the 27-year-old is eligible for free agency after the season.  Cain has been extremely durable over the last six seasons.  His walk rate has improved in recent years and his ability to prevent hits is proven, if not fully understood.  In '07, Cain chose guaranteed money over maximizing his arbitration earnings.  Three years later he did it again, giving up one free agent year that time.  A $100MM+ deal might give the Giants the security to allow Lincecum to leave after '13.  As $100MM+ deals for pitchers go, Cain seems a relatively sound investment.    

The Giants did an arbitration years-only extension with Sandoval this offseason, which I found unnecessary.  If you're not getting free agent years, where are the savings?  Using the optimistic assumption that Sandoval gets 600 plate appearances and hits .305 with 25 home runs, 90 runs batted in, and 75 runs in 600 plate appearances in each of the 2013 and '14 seasons, Matt Swartz estimates arbitration earnings of $18.3MM for 2012-14 if he'd gone year-to-year.  In this performance scenario, the Giants saved only $1.15MM by guaranteeing Sandoval's three arbitration years.  To make the extension worthwhile financially, the Giants are counting on Sandoval to be elite for two full seasons.  This type of contract is a hedge on the potential of a player's performance, Evans explained to MLBTR, and sometimes it's easier to find common ground on multiyear deals than one-year contracts.  He noted that an extension like this also rewards a player for his performance and helps him focus on his game. 

Posey's recovery from a grisly May leg injury will provide a boost to the Giants, while the additions of Cabrera and Pagan should make the offense less awful.  Still, it's likely Sabean will again be actively seeking run support for his top-notch pitching staff come the July trade deadline.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

Indians Re-Acquire Kelvin De La Cruz

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The Indians announced that they re-acquired left-hander Kelvin De La Cruz from the Rangers for cash considerations. The club placed right-hander Carlos Carrasco on the 60-day disabled list to create roster space for De La Cruz. Cleveland's 40-man roster is full with the addition of De La Cruz, who will be optioned to Double-A Akron.

The 6'5" 23-year-old posted a 4.19 ERA with 9.9 K/9 and 6.0 BB/9 in 86 innings as a starter and reliever at Double-A last year. He has typically walked and struck out lots of opponents, as his career rates of 8.9 K/9 and 4.9 BB/9 indicate. The Indians originally sent De La Cruz to the Rangers on February 21st. He made one appearance for Texas before being returned to Cleveland.

Nationals Notes: Wang, Lannan, Harper

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Stephen Strasburg says he'll have to learn when to pitch to hitters and when to overpower them in order to develop further as an MLB pitcher, Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post reports. Here are some more notes on the Nationals…

  • Nationals starter Chien-Ming Wang had to be helped off of the field after straining his left hamstring in today's Spring Training game against the Yankees. If Wang misses time with an injury, the Nationals may need trade candidate John Lannan in their Opening Day rotation after all.
  • ESPN.com's Buster Olney and Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com both reported today that Lannan's trade value isn't very high right now.
  • Bryce Harper explained that he’s definitely hoping to make the Nationals’ Opening Day roster, Kilgore reports. There was some confusion about Harper's expectations earlier in the week, but he still intends to break camp with the big league team.
  • MLB.com's Anthony Castrovince explains why it might make sense for the Nationals to play Harper in center field. "As far as I'm concerned, anybody that can throw and run like he can should have experience at all the outfield positions," manager Davey Johnson said. Harper, who played center field in last night’s exhibition game, could provide the Nationals with stability at a position they’ve had trouble solidifying.

AL East Notes: Ibanez, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Orioles

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The AL East figures to be one of the game's most competitive divisions in 2012. Here are the latest links from Florida, where all five AL East teams are preparing for the season…

  • Raul Ibanez doesn’t have emotional, historical or financial ties keeping him on the Yankees’ roster, so Joel Sherman of the New York Post wonders how long the club will stick with Ibanez if his struggles continue. But as Sherman point out, it’s still just March 15th.
  • Yankees GM Brian Cashman and third baseman Alex Rodriguez tell Joel Sherman of the New York Post that the Blue Jays are becoming a serious threat in the AL East. “They aren’t a secret anymore,” Rodriguez said. “They are knocking on the door,” Cashman added. “It is undeniable that they are going to win and win for a while.” Blue Jays ownership could support a top ten payroll in time and “that isn’t a guess, that’s a fact,” GM Alex Anthopoulos said.
  • John Tomase of the Boston Herald reports that the relationship between Red Sox GM Ben Cherington and manager Bobby Valentine seems to be starting off well. If the Red Sox name Jose Iglesias their starting shortstop, it'll be a sign of just how much Valentine's opinion matters. The front office has maintained the defensive whiz needs more seasoning.
  • Mark Melancon's interleague experience could help him transition from the NL Central to the AL East, Brian MacPherson Providence Journal writes.
  • Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com ranks the AL East rotations, placing the Orioles fifth. They have intriguing arms such as Zach Britton and Jake Arrieta, but their rotation is filled with uncertainty from top to bottom this spring.

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Royals Extend Alcides Escobar

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The Royals announced that they signed shortstop Alcides Escobar to a four-year extension through 2015. The deal with the Wasserman Media Group client includes club options for 2016 and 2017. The contract guarantees Escobar $10.5MM through 2015, Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star tweets. The shortstop could earn a total of $21.75MM if the Royals exercise both of their options.

Alcides Escobar - Royals

Escobar was on track for arbitration eligibility following the 2012 season, so the deal buys out his final pre-arbitration season and his three arbitration years. The club options cover Escobar's first two free agent seasons.

Escobar, 25, posted a .254/.290/.343 line in 2011, his debut season with the Royals. He posted similar offensive numbers in his first full season before being traded to Kansas City in the Zack Greinke deal. Considered an above-average defender, Escobar has a career UZR/150 of 5.9 at shortstop. 

As MLBTR's Extension Tracker shows, the Royals have extended pre-arbitration players aggressively under GM Dayton Moore. The club locked Joakim Soria up to a three-year, $8.75MM deal in 2008 and signed Salvador Perez to a five-year, $7MM deal earlier this spring.

Elvis Andrus, who has one more year of service time than Escobar, recently signed an extension valuing his three arbitration seasons at $14.4MM. Escobar's numbers are comparable to where Andrus' were a year ago, so it's fair to say the Royals could save as much as $4.5MM through 2015. There's always risk in locking young players up, since injuries can strike at any time. Perez, for example, will undergo knee surgery just weeks after signing his deal.

Shortstops Hanley Ramirez and Troy Tulowitzki signed extensions as pre-arbitration eligible players in 2008, but they wouldn't have been comparables for the light-hitting Escobar. 

Photo courtesy Icon SMII.

Offseason In Review: Philadelphia Phillies

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Ruben Amaro Jr.'s aggressive offseason approach landed him an elite but expensive closer and enabled the Phillies to lock Jimmy Rollins up for three more years.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades and Claims

Extensions

Notable Losses

Draft Picks Gained or Lost

  • Lost 31st overall selection to Red Sox for Papelbon.
  • Obtained 40th overall selection for losing Madson. 
  • Obtained 54th overall selection for losing Ibanez.
  • Obtained 77th overall selection for losing Madson.

It’s easy and maybe a little hip to criticize the Phillies’ offseason moves, but you’ve got to admit this club does a lot of things right. They have appeared in two of the past four World Series, and they won it all in 2008. They’ve won their division five consecutive times, most recently with an MLB-best 102-60 mark for 2011. Their pitching staff, which allowed just 3.25 runs per game last year, returns for more of the same in 2012.

Admittedly, Jonathan Papelbon’s contract already looks like a mistake. The Phillies signed him for $50MM after engaging longtime reliever Ryan Madson in talks about a similar deal. Piles of sabermetric evidence suggest it’s imprudent to invest heavily in relievers, since their performance is volatile and you’re likely paying a premium for saves. Papelbon’s a tremendous pitcher and he was going to require a multiyear commitment. But he signed for more than Heath Bell, Ryan Madson, Francisco Cordero, Takashi Saito and Francisco Rodriguez combined. The Phillies overpaid, though they're better off in 2012 because of it.

The Phillies and longtime shortstop Jimmy Rollins worked out a three-year, $38MM contract that makes sense for both sides. Rollins’ asking price of five years wouldn’t have worked for the Phillies, but he can still play short while adding value on offense. For a team whose window for contention is now, and not necessarily later, this deal was advisable. Signing a second-tier free agent or starting prospect Freddy Galvis wouldn’t have been enough.

GM Ruben Amaro Jr. didn’t stop tinkering with his bullpen after finalizing the Papelbon signing. He added Dontrelle Willis and Chad Qualls on Major League deals that have promise as long as Willis doesn’t face too many right-handed hitters and Qualls’ 2011 success translates from spacious Petco Park to Philadelphia’s cozy home field. 

Amaro bolstered his bench, adding Thome, Nix and Schneider for a total of $4.55MM, and making a few significant trades. Gone are Ben Francisco and Wilson Valdez, both fixtures in Philly for the past couple of seasons. The Phillies reportedly pursued Michael Cuddyer before acquiring an older, less productive version of Cuddyer: his predecessor in Colorado Ty Wigginton. 

Given the injuries currently sidelining Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, Placido Polanco's recent troubles staying healthy for an entire season and the group of players in left field, the Wigginton trade made sense for the Phillies. For $2MM, nearly $30MM less than Cuddyer’s eventual price tag, the Phillies get a versatile player with a history of success against left-handed pitching. There's no sense acting as though Utley and Howard are the fixtures they once were, which makes infield depth particularly important for the Phillies.

They boast the best rotation in MLB, even after losing Roy Oswalt to free agency. Vance Worley, Joe Blanton and the newly-extended Kyle Kendrick round out a rotation that includes three of the sport’s elite arms, so starting pitching depth likely ranked relatively low on the team’s offseason to-do list. Amaro added Joel Pineiro and Dave Bush on sensible minor league deals that provide the club with some options just in case.

Hamels and Shane Victorino are poised to hit free agency after the 2012 season, so it won’t be a surprise if Amaro looks to lock one or both players up within the next month or so. Retaining Hamels will require a nine-figure commitment, but the expense would be justifiable for a team that spends, draws and wins like a superpower. Victorino sounds willing to consider a discount to remain in Philadelphia, and it would be wise for the Phillies to take advantage of their status as a desirable destination for elite players and strike a deal if a discount's actually within reach.

The National League East is tougher than ever now that the Marlins are spending big and the Nationals have deepened their rotation. Meanwhile, the Phillies are a little older, a little more banged up and, let's face it, far less intimidating on offense than they once were. Don’t let it fool you. The Phillies’ elite run prevention should send them to a sixth consecutive postseason berth in 2012 and no one will want to face this team’s pitching staff in October.

Quick Hits: Helms, Davies, Blue Jays, Orioles

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Here's the latest from the around the league, including updates on two low-profile free agents…

  • Wes Helms is currently working out and waiting for an opportunity with the right team, reports MLBTR's Tim Dierkes (on Twitter). The 35-year-old hit .191/.276/.236 with the Marlins last season before being released in August.
  • Free agent right-hander Kyle Davies is currently rehabbing from a December shoulder surgery, tweets Dierkes. Davies, 28, pitched to a 6.75 ERA in 13 starts for the Royals last year before getting released in August.
  • Sources tell Jeff Blair of The Globe and Mail that the Blue Jays will not add a starting pitcher owed significant money right now. A cheap, innings-eating stopgap is more likely. Toronto has been connected to Joe Blanton and Gavin Floyd recently.
  • Steve Melewski of MASNSports.com interviewed Orioles scouting director Gary Rajsich about the upcoming amateur draft. Baltimore holds the fourth overall pick this year.

Los Angeles Links: Magic Johnson, LaRussa, Walden

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The Angels play in Orange County, but Los Angeles is in the team name and that's good enough for me. Here's the latest on the Halos and Dodgers…

  • ESPN's Buster Olney says (on Twitter) that some baseball executives believe Magic Johnson's group is the frontrunner to buy the Dodgers. He notes that there is still a long, long way to go in the process.
  • Meanwhile, Bob Nightengale of USA Today hears that Tony LaRussa and agent Arn Tellem would assume front office positions with the Dodgers if Steve Cohen ends up buying the team. The four ownership finalists include Cohen's group, Magic's group, a group led by St. Louis Rams and Denver Nuggets owner Stan Kroenke, and a group led by Memphis Grizzlies owner Michael Heisley.
  • Angels closer Jordan Walden is looking to bullpen-mates and former closers Jason Isringhausen and LaTroy Hawkins for advice in his second year on the job, writes Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. "There are some years right there," Walden joked. "I’m trying to learn things, all kinds of things that they’ve done that have worked for them."

No Progress In Talks Between Giants, Matt Cain

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The Giants and representatives for Matt Cain failed to make progress towards a contract extension during talks today according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. No further discussions are planned, and although Cain has not set a deadline for a new deal, neither he nor the team wants to be distracted by talks during the regular season.

The 27-year-old right-hander is seeking a contract that reflects his standing as one the best pitchers in baeball, but the Giants are hesitant to pay Cain free agent money a full year before he's scheduled to hit the open market. Rosenthal opines that he could receive a six-year contract worth $20MM annually as a free agent, which would make him the seventh pitcher in baseball history to secure a nine-figure deal.

Earlier this month we heard that the two sides had positive momentum towards a new pact. Cain, a CAA Sports client, has signed extensions twice before, with the second contract buying out one free agent year and giving him a $15MM salary in 2012. He's pitched to a 3.35 ERA in his seven big league seasons, topping the 200 IP plateau in each of the last five years.

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