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The Best Minor League Deals Of 2021 (So Far): Pitchers

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We took a look last week at some of the minor league pacts that have paid the most dividends, focusing in on position players in both leagues. Unsurprisingly, given the lack of offense throughout baseball as a whole at the moment, there are even more success stories on the pitching side of the coin. Some of these are products of small sample size, particularly for the many relievers on the list, but at least for our initial check-in on this subject, the early returns have been strong.

  1. Ian Kennedy, RHP, Rangers: We’re nearing Memorial Day weekend, and Kennedy is tied for the American League lead in saves — just as everyone expected! The 36-year-old righty isn’t just scraping by and narrowly escaping in a bunch of three-run leads, though. He’s tallied 19 1/3 innings and allowed just four runs, all while recording a terrific 31.1 percent strikeout rate and a tiny 5.4 percent walk rate. If Texas remains near the bottom of the AL West standings, he’ll be an appealing trade target for bullpen-needy clubs.
  2. Drew Steckenrider, RHP, Mariners: A quality setup man with the 2017-18 Marlins, Steckenrider’s time in Miami was derailed by injuries — most notably a 2019 flexor strain. He looks to be back on track in his new surroundings, however, having tossed 18 1/3 innings of 2.45 ERA ball with a 29.2 percent strikeout rate and an 11.1 percent walk rate. The walks are a bit elevated, but he’s helped to combat that with a career-best 54 percent ground-ball mark. The Mariners (or another club) could control Steckenrider through 2023 via arbitration as well, which only adds to the value.
  3. Jimmy Nelson, RHP, Dodgers:  The Dodgers just placed Nelson on the injured list due to a forearm issue, so there are (once again) some obvious health question marks with Nelson. There’s no ignoring how effective he’s been thus far, however. Nelson’s 39.1 percent strikeout rate is the ninth-best among all MLB relievers, and he’s paired that with a pristine 2.41 ERA. Like Shaw, he’s walked too many batters (13 percent), but the former Brewers ace has shown high-leverage, late-inning potential with L.A.
  4. Bryan Shaw, RHP, Indians: Shaw was an iron man in the Cleveland ’pen but flopped in Colorado after signing a three-year, $27MM contract going into 2018. Back in his old stomping grounds, he’s tallied 19 innings with a pristine 1.42 ERA. The 33-year-old has issued 13 walks, so he’ll need to cut back on the free passes if he hopes to continue this success, but Shaw’s strikeout and ground-ball percentages are among the best of his career (29.3 percent, 57.5 percent, respectively).
  5. Lucas Luetge, LHP, Yankees: Luetge’s last MLB appearance prior to his Yankees debut came with the 2015 Mariners. The now-34-year-old southpaw signed minor league deals with five organizations before making it back to the show, which is remarkable in and of itself. That he’s been one of the Yankees’ best relievers, however, makes his story all the more incredible. Luetge, who entered 2021 with all of 89 MLB frames under his belt, has a 2.95 ERA and a 19-to-3 K/BB ratio in 21 1/3 innings for the Yankees thus far. Considering the injuries to Zack Britton and Darren O’Day, Luetge’s unexpected contributions have been a godsend. If he can keep this up, he’ll be arbitration-eligible this winter and controllable through the 2024 season.
  6. Hyeon-jong Yang, LHP, Rangers: Yang, a former KBO MVP, could’ve returned to that league on a guaranteed deal but refused to give up on his aspirations of playing in the Majors, even if it meant taking a non-guaranteed pact. He’s 21 1/3 innings into the realization of that lifelong goal, and the Rangers are no doubt pleased with their decision. Yang, 33, opened the season with the Rangers’ alternate site group but had his contract selected in late April. He now owns a 3.38 ERA, and while his pedestrian strikeout and walk rates might point to some possible regression, he’s induced plenty of weak contact (average 87.4 mph exit velocity, just a 13.1 percent line-drive rate). An 11.2 percent swinging-strike rate suggests there could be more K’s to come, as well.
  7. Chi Chi Gonzalez, RHP, Rockies: Gonzalez’s numbers don’t stand out that much, but he’s eating innings and delivering roughly league-average run-prevention numbers when adjusting for his home park (102 ERA+, 99 ERA-). Through nine appearances, seven of them starts, Gonzalez is carrying a 4.54 ERA. He’s totaled 41 2/3 innings for a Rockies club that has gone the whole season without lefty Kyle Freeland. Gonzalez has rattled off consecutive quality starts and helped the Rox get through the first two months of the season. The secondary marks aren’t great, but average innings have value — especially in 2021 when teams are so conscientious about their pitchers’ workloads.
  8. Nabil Crismatt, RHP, Padres: Crismatt had just 8 1/3 innings of MLB experience (all with the 2020 Cardinals) when he arrived in Padres camp this spring. He’s more than doubled that total in 2021 already, pitching 17 2/3 innings of 2.55 ERA ball with a hefty 52.2 percent grounder rate. Crismatt is an oddity in today’s game, sitting under 89 mph with a fastball that is only seldom used due to the fact that he throws his changeup at a whopping 46.5 percent clip. It’s weird, but so far — it’s worked.
  9. Anthony Bender, RHP, Marlins: A 26-year-old rookie who never pitched above Double-A with the Royals or Brewers before joining the Marlins on a minor league deal this winter, Bender is sitting 97.4 mph with his heater and has tossed 8 2/3 shutout innings to open his career. He’s whiffed 36.7 percent of his opponents against a 3.3 percent walk rate. Small sample? Sure, but Bender also rattled off 8 1/3 shutout frames during Spring Training, too. Not bad for a guy who posted a 5.48 ERA with the independent American Association’s Milwaukee Milkmen in 2020.
  10. Heath Hembree, RHP, Reds:  After a rough 2020 season, Hembree has bounced back early in 2021. His 4.15 ERA through 13 frames is nothing special, but his strikeout rate is sitting at a career-high 33.3 percent after plummeting in 2020. His 6.3 percent walk rate is a career-best, and his 13.1 percent swinging-strike rate isn’t far off from his peak years in Boston. Hembree’s velocity is also up to 95.2 mph after dipping to 93.9 mph in 2019-20. It’s early, but those are some encouraging indicators.
  11. Zack Littell, RHP, Giants: Littell hasn’t spent much time with the Giants yet, but he’s chucked 10 2/3 innings and held opponents to just one run on eight hits and three walks with nine punchouts. His 94.8 mph average fastball velocity is a career-high, as is his 48.3 percent grounder rate. The former Twins righty only has a year of big league service and could be controllable for several years if he figures it out in San Francisco.
  12. Deolis Guerra, RHP, Athletics: It’s hard to believe Guerra just turned 32, given that he was one of the pieces traded from the Mets to the Twins way back in 2008’s Johan Santana trade. He’s bounced around the league in journeyman style but is enjoying a nice run with the A’s to kick off the ’21 season. In 20 2/3 frames, Guerra has a 3.92 ERA with a pedestrian K-BB% but intriguing levels of weak contact induced.
  13. JT Chargois, RHP, Mariners: Like Littell, Chargois hasn’t seen much time in the bigs yet, but he’s sporting a 9-to-1 K/BB ratio in 8 2/3 innings for Seattle. He’s had multiple chances with the Twins and Dodgers in recent years but never found much consistency. Chargois also mustered only a 5.81 ERA pitching for Japan’s Rakuten Golden Eagles in 2020. Still, it’s a nice start to his 2021 season.
  14. Brad Boxberger, RHP, Brewers: The right-hander, who’ll turn 33 this week, has hurled 17 1/3 innings so far in Milwaukee and pitched to a 4.15 ERA but with a more impressive 17-to-3 K/BB mark. As with many relievers early in a given season, the bulk of the damage against Boxberger came in one appearance (against the Cardinals). He’s been unscored upon in 16 of his 19 outings so far in 2021.
  15. Ervin Santana, RHP, Royals: The Royals love their reunions more than any team in baseball, and Santana is somewhat improbably back to “smelling baseball,” as he likes to say, for a second stint in Kansas City. He’s only allowed four runs in 15 1/3 innings (2.35 ERA), but he’s also only picked up eight strikeouts against four walks. His fastball is sitting 93 mph again after living at 89-90 in 2018-19, but the red flags are plentiful: 13.1 percent strikeout rate, 91 percent strand rate, .213 BABIP, 45 percent opponents’ hard-hit rate.
  16. Paolo Espino, RHP, Nationals: The Nats quietly re-signed the now 34-year-old Espino before the calendar even flipped to November last year. So far, it’s been a worthwhile reunion, as he’s held opponents to four runs on nine hits and a walk with eight strikeouts in 14 innings (2.57 ERA). Espino won’t keep this up if he can’t miss some more bats and/or induce far more grounders, however. He’s currently benefiting from a .175 BABIP and an 83.3 percent strand rate, while his 26.6 percent grounder rate will make it to limit home runs. Still, the Nats have 14 innings of decent results to show for the deal.

As with the position players, some of these strong starts will fade. There are a few at the back of the list that look particularly difficult to sustain, but there also look to be some genuine bargains unearthed among this group. Some will likely result in trades (Kennedy), but it’d make for a fun story to follow should any of the controllable arms (e.g. Bender, Crismatt) ultimately emerge as long-term pieces for the clubs who gave them their best career opportunities to date.

Minor MLB Transactions: 5/24/21

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The latest minor moves from around baseball…

  • The Reds announced that right-hander Carson Fulmer has been outrighted to Triple-A Louisville.  Fulmer cleared waivers after being designated for assignment on Saturday.  It marks a rare trip through DFA limbo for Fulmer that didn’t result in a change of address, as the righty has been claimed off waivers five times since July 2020.  The Reds were the fifth team to claim Fulmer, and he has a 6.66 ERA over 25 2/3 relief innings for Cincinnati this season.

Reds Place Nick Senzel, Wade Miley On 10-Day Injured List

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The Reds placed infielder/outfielder Nick Senzel and left-hander Wade Miley on the 10-day injured list, the team announced.  Senzel is dealing with left knee inflammation while Miley has a left foot sprain.  In other moves, Cincinnati also designated right-hander Carson Fulmer for assignment, selected the contract of right-hander Brad Brach, and called up outfielder Scott Heineman and righty Ashton Goudeau.

Senzel has missed the last three games with the knee issue, and he’ll now make what has unfortunately become a rather familiar trip to the injured list.  The 25-year-old has been set back by a wide variety of health problems in his young career, ranging from shoulder surgery to injuries to his ankle, groin, and finger, as well an illness-related absence last season and multiple bouts of vertigo.  The second overall pick of the 2016 draft, Senzel has yet to really capitalize on his potential due to all these injuries, with a modest .246/.308/.396 slash line over his first 616 plate appearances in the majors.

Miley left his most recent start after 4 2/3 innings due to his foot injury.  An MRI didn’t reveal any structural damage, so it’s possible Miley could return after just the minimum 10 days, and perhaps only miss one start thanks to a Reds off-day on May 24.  The veteran southpaw has a 3.50 ERA/3.72 SIERA over 43 2/3 innings this season, succeeding despite a below-average strikeout rate by limiting hard contact.  Miley’s year, of course, was highlighted by his no-hitter against the Indians on May 7.

Brach signed a minors contract with Cincinnati earlier this month, after he elected free agency rather than accept an outright assignment to the Royals’ Triple-A affiliate in April.  The 35-year-old has already been a member of three different organizations in 2021, after being released by the Mets in February.  Brach’s first appearance for the Reds will officially put him on the books for his 11th Major League season, though he struggled over 66 2/3 innings with the Cubs and Mets in 2019-20.

Fulmer has been well-traveled himself over the last year, as he has been claimed five times off the DFA wire since July 2020.  Beginning with the White Sox, Fulmer’s sojourn included stints with the Tigers, Orioles, and two different stops with the Pirates before landing with the Reds in March.  The results haven’t been good for Fulmer in Cincinnati, however, as he posted a 6.66 ERA over 25 2/3 frames out of the Reds bullpen.  It’s probably fair to assume that Fulmer’s time with the Reds could be nearing an end, given his past popularity on the waiver wire.

Goudeau can even top Fulmer’s mark, as Goudeau has been a part of six different waiver claims and six different organizations since November.  After making his MLB debut with 8 1/3 innings for the Rockies in 2020, Goudeau now looks to be in line to make his first Major League appearance of 2021 after his many trips through DFA limbo.

The Best Minor League Deals Of 2021 (So Far): Position Players

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Minor league contracts don’t generally draw much of a reaction over the course of a baseball offseason, with some rare exceptions. Everyone loves to see an out-of-the-blue comeback story on a non-guaranteed arrangement, but most minor league deals of any note are injured veterans, struggling former prospects or fringe big leaguers who have never really solidified their status as a contributor at the game’s top level. Every year, however, a handful of these no-risk investments produce solid returns.

We’re about a quarter through the 2021 season, so let’s check in on a handful of non-guaranteed pacts that have already proven to be wise investments for their clubs.

  1. Tyler Naquin, OF, Reds: Naquin’s signing was met with a collective yawn, but one Ohio club’s leftovers have turned into another’s treasure. The former Indians first-rounder has mashed his way into a regular role in Cincinnati, raking at a .265/.346/.530 clip through 133 plate appearances. Naquin parlayed a strong spring and a March injury to Shogo Akiyama into an Opening Day roster spot, but he’s now fourth on the team in plate appearances and third in wRC+ at 135 (min. 20 PAs). He’s hitting so much better than struggling center fielder Nick Senzel that Cincinnati hasn’t hesitated to move Senzel to the infield in the wake of Joey Votto’s injury, creating more playing time for Naquin. This doesn’t appear to be a mere small-sample fluke, either. Naquin ranks in the 95th percentile of MLB hitters in average exit velocity and has similarly strong percentile rankings in hard-hit rate (84th), xwOBA (89th), xSLG (93rd) and barrel rate (90th). He’s also controlled through the 2022 season via arbitration. For an Indians club that has gotten virtually no production from its outfield over the past two seasons, watching Naquin’s start in 2021 has to sting, even if they’re happy for their former prospect on a personal level.
  2. C.J. Cron, 1B, Rockies: Cron’s ability to hit hasn’t really been in question since his 2014 MLB debut, but injuries have dogged him in recent years. Fresh off a season-ending knee surgery in 2020, Cron inked a non-guaranteed pact with the Rockies, made the club out of Spring Training and has unsurprisingly emerged as their primary first baseman. He’s out to an excellent start, hitting .300/.397/.500 in 116 plate appearances. Cron missed 10 days with a back strain and, unlike Naquin, is a free agent at season’s end, so he didn’t grab the top spot on this list. Still, he’s been a bright spot for the Rockies and could give them a summer trade chip if he can stay healthy. It’s still somewhat puzzling that the Tigers didn’t bring him back, given how poorly things have gone at first base in Detroit, but perhaps Cron simply liked the opportunity presented in Colorado better.
  3. Matt Duffy, 3B, Cubs: Duffy began with his MLB career with a stellar year for the 2015 Giants, in which he hit .295/.334/.428 and finished second behind current teammate Kris Bryant in NL Rookie of the Year voting. He never really followed up on that debut effort, though, as underperformance and injuries knocked him off track over the next two seasons. Duffy rebounded to play fairly well with the Rays in 2018 but wound up released after a difficult 2019 campaign. The veteran infielder spent 2020 at the Yankees alternate training site. This offseason, Duffy attracted interest from a few clubs in a coaching and/or front office capacity, but the Cubs offered him a chance to reinvigorate his playing career and have been rewarded for doing so. Duffy made the Opening Day roster and has come out with a .281/.375/.360 line over his first 104 plate appearances, his top offensive output since the aforementioned rookie season. The right-handed hitter isn’t a power threat, but he’s an above-average defensive third baseman with a good approach who makes plenty of contact. Duffy solidifying the hot corner has allowed Bryant to help out an otherwise shaky, inconsistent outfield.
  4. Jed Lowrie, 2B, Athletics: There’s something about Lowrie and the A’s that just clicks every time he dons the green and gold. In his third stint with the team after missing practically all of the 2019-20 seasons as a Met, Lowrie is improbably hitting .254/.329/.394 through 158 plate appearances. With offense down around the league and a cavernous home park, that’s good for a healthy 108 wRC+. The veteran switch-hitter’s bat has cooled since a torrid start to the season, but the early return on his no-risk minor league pact has been strong.
  5. Charlie Culberson, INF/OF, Rangers: A popular utility player wherever he goes, Culberson is well on his way to endearing himself to the Rangers’ fanbase. Through his first 97 plate appearances, the 32-year-old is hitting .264/.316/.429 with three homers. Culberson has made one-off appearances at second base, shortstop and in left field, but the bulk of his playing time has come at third base.
  6. Pablo Sandoval, INF, Braves: Atlanta fans might’ve groaned when the Braves brought the Panda back on another minor league deal, but Sandoval has thrived as a pinch-hitter and seldom-used bench bat. Sandoval has come to the plate as a pinch-hitter 26 times and homered in four of those plate appearances. On the whole, he’s hitting .250/.372/.583 through 43 plate appearances. No one expects the former All-Star to continue at this pace, and you can certainly argue that since Sandoval is effectively a dedicated pinch-hitter, this isn’t an ideal use of a roster spot. Still, it’s hard to argue with four pinch-hit dingers, and we’re talking about minor league deals here, after all.

We’ll check in on this year’s crop of minor league signees a few months from now, as it’s quite likely that we’ll see the tides turn on some of these (and other) contracts. A hot streak from Travis Shaw in Milwaukee could quickly make his deal look all the more prudent, and Connor Joe is out to a hot start with the Rox in a return from last year’s cancer diagnosis, which is a feel-good story in and of itself. At least through the season’s 25 percent mark, however, this group of bats is paying dividends for the teams that rolled the dice.

Reds Place Mike Moustakas On 10-Day Injured List

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The Reds announced this morning that they’ve placed infielder Mike Moustakas on the 10-day injured list with a right heel contusion and recalled fellow infielder Max Schrock from Triple-A Louisville. It’s now been nearly a week since Moustakas started a game for the Reds, but because the Reds utilized him as a pinch-hitter both Monday and Tuesday, his IL placement can only be backdated to yesterday (May 19).

With Moustakas now shelved for at least the next nine days and Joey Votto still out with a fractured thumb, Cincinnati is sending Alex Blandino out at first base today. Jonathan India is lined up at second base, with Kyle Farmer at short and Eugenio Suarez at the hot corner. We’ll likely see various permutations of the infield alignment in the absence of both Moustakas and Votto, a pair of key bats in the heart of the Reds’ lineup.

Moustakas, 32, is out to a .241/.337/.437 start that actually checks in 10 percent better than league average, by measure of wRC+, in this year’s woeful offensive climate. He’s homered four times and kicked in five doubles as well while splitting his time between the infield corners. The Reds initially signed Moustakas to play second base, but the emergence of Jonathan India and the club’s decision to move Suarez back to shortstop to begin the year slid Moustakas back over to the hot corner — at least until Votto’s injury.

The 26-year-old Schrock will give the Reds an option at any of second base, third base or left field while they await the returns of Votto and Moustakas. Schrock, just 4-for-26 in a tiny sample of play at the big league level, is a career .262/.326/.351 hitter in 775 Triple-A plate appearances.

Reds Moves: Feliz, Romano

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The Reds have added right-handed reliever Michael Feliz to their roster, Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer tweets. They also optioned righty Art Warren to Triple-A Louisville. Meanwhile, righty Sal Romano has cleared waivers and elected free agency.

The 27-year-old Feliz became a Red on Friday when they claimed him off waivers from the division-rival Pirates. Feliz began the season well with 7 2/3 innings of three-run (two earned) ball with eight strikeouts against one walk, though he averaged a personal-worst 93.5 mph on his fastball along the way. Overall, Feliz has recorded a 5.07 ERA (with a far better 3.31 SIERA) in 234 1/3 major league innings.

Romano, whom the Reds designated for assignment to make room for Feliz, will now look for his second big league organization. He joined the Reds as a 23rd-round pick in 2011 and has since tossed 271 innings and amassed 83 appearances (41 starts) in the majors. The 27-year-old has logged a 5.15 ERA/4.82 SIERA in the bigs.

Reds Claim Michael Feliz, Designate Sal Romano For Assignment

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The Reds have claimed right-handed reliever Michael Feliz off waivers from the Pirates, per a club announcement. In order to open a spot on the 40-man roster, Cincinnati designated righty Sal Romano for assignment.

Feliz, 27, was one of four players the Pirates acquired in the 2017 trade that sent Gerrit Cole to Houston. He came to the Bucs with a heater that averaged better than 96 mph and a 33.8 percent strikeout rate compiled between the 2016-17 seasons. Those numbers have all taken a step back since the trade.

Feliz posted a 3.99 ERA for the Pirates through 56 1/3 innings in 2019 — his best season in the big leagues to date. However, he was hampered by shoulder and forearm issues during his time in Pittsburgh, and his fastball was averaging a career-low 94.1 mph through 7 2/3 innings in 2021. He still posted an above-average 27.7 percent strikeout rate in Pittsburgh, but his walk rate rose a bit (to 10.6 percent) and Feliz was also quite homer-prone, serving up 18 long balls in 113 1/3 frames.

Overall, Feliz has pitched 234 1/3 innings in the Majors and has only a 5.07 ERA to show for it. Fielding-independent marks are more bullish on the righty (4.01 FIP, 3.31 SIERA), so the Reds will hope that a change of scenery will help him get on track and tap into the potential that once made him one of the Astros’ most promising farmhands. Feliz is out of minor league options, so he’ll immediately join the Reds’ bullpen and try to sort things out at the MLB level.

The 27-year-old Romano showed some promise as a rookie back in 2017, when he logged a 4.45 ERA through 16 starts (87 innings). He’s struggled through every big league opportunity he’s had since that time, working to a collective 5.48 ERA through 184 frames with a well below-average strikeout rate (16.3 percent) and roughly average marks in terms of grounder and walk rates (44.4 percent and 8.6 percent, respectively).

Like Feliz, Romano is out of options, meaning any club that claims him or acquires him in a trade would have to carry him on the big league roster. The Reds will have a week to see if there’s a team interested in acquiring him or to try to pass him through outright waivers.

Several Veterans In The Mix For Spots On Team USA Roster

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Former All-Stars David Robertson and Todd Frazier are planning to head to the U.S. Olympic Team’s training camp in Port St. Lucie, per a pair of reports from MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand and the New York Post’s Joel Sherman (Twitter links). Sherman adds that righty Brad Brach is on Team USA’s provisional roster as well, though he’s pitching with the Reds’ Triple-A affiliate at the moment, so a call to the Majors would take priority. Meanwhile, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that Homer Bailey and Edwin Jackson are both expected to pitch for the club. Team USA, set to be managed by longtime Halos skipper Mike Scioscia, will play in a qualifier beginning May 31.

Robertson, now 36, signed a two-year, $23MM contract with the Phillies prior to the 2019 season. He’d been the game’s most durable reliever prior to that contract, averaging 65 appearances and 65 innings per year over the preceding nine seasons. Unfortunately, that run came to an end with a pair of injury marred seasons in Philadelphia that culminated in the aforementioned Tommy John procedure. Robertson tossed just 6 2/3 innings in his two years with the Phillies. He’s still hoping for a big league return at some point, per Feinsand.

Frazier recently elected free agency after being designated for assignment by the Pirates. He put together a nice Spring Training with the Bucs, hitting .250/.353/.643 with three homers in 34 plate appearances. Upon being added to the big league roster and joining the club in the regular season, however, Frazier fell into a 3-for-35 slump before being designated and clearing waivers. He’ll look to get back on track in this latest venture, which could conceivably serve as a showcase opportunity or ultimately lead to a spot on the Olympic roster.

Neither Bailey nor Jackson signed with a big league club over the winter. Bailey spent the 2020 season with the Twins but was injured for much of the season. He enjoyed a respectable season between the Royals and A’s in 2019, however, tossing 163 1/3 innings of 4.57 ERA ball with a 21.4 percent strikeout rate and a 7.6 walk rate. Jackson hasn’t pitched in the big leagues since allowing more runs than innings pitched between the Blue Jays and Tigers in 2019, though he had a nice 2018 campaign in Oakland (92 innings, 3.33 ERA).

Notably, Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times reported this week that Team USA also reached out to Ryan Braun about a possible match. Braun, who has also received interest from Team Israel, tells Shaikin that suiting back up for any team “doesn’t make sense for me,” adding that he “couldn’t imagine being happier or enjoying life more” than he is right now while spending time with his family. Braun said back in March that he’s “strongly leaning” toward retirement, and while he tells Shaikin he’s leaving the door cracked in case he finds himself missing the game in the future, it doesn’t sound as though Braun has any interest in returning to the game right now.

Team USA has yet to formally announce its roster or a list of players who’ll train at their camp in Port St. Lucie, Fla., but Baseball America’s Kyle Glaser reported late last month that players on 40-man rosters would not be eligible for the team. The qualifier tournament runs May 31-June 5 and features the United States, Canada, Colombia, Cuba, the Dominican Republic, Nicaragua, Puerto Rico and Venezuela.

Previewing 2021-22 Opt-Out Clauses & Player Options

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Next year’s free-agent class is a legitimately star-studded group even when focusing only on true free agents who’ll hit the market due to service time or an expiring contract. But the class has the potential to become even stronger depending on the play of this year’s collection of veterans who have opt-out clauses and player options in their contracts. Their performance over the next five months will determine whether they opt for another trip to the free-agent market or simply stick with the remaining salary guaranteed to them on their existing deals.

We’re about a sixth of the way through the season, so it’s worth taking an early look at how this group is faring…

Nolan Arenado, 3B, Cardinals (can opt out of remaining six years, $179MM): Arenado, who was always a better hitter at Coors Field, is yet another example of the manner in which home/road splits are overstated with regard to Rockies players. The 30-year-old is now playing his home games at Busch Stadium and still raking at a .279/.336/.507 clip with top-notch defense at the hot corner. Arenado has stated that he plans “to be a Cardinal the rest of the way” and said there is a “very, very high” chance that will forgo the opt-out clause in his contract. After the Cardinals tacked a year and $15MM onto the original five years and $164MM he had remaining on the deal, there’s less incentive for him to test the market.

Trevor Bauer, RHP, Dodgers (can opt out of remaining two years, $62MM): While some might balk at the notion of Bauer opting out when he’s guaranteed a whopping $45MM next year on this front-loaded contract, the opt-out wouldn’t really be about 2022 — it’d be about improving upon the total guarantee. Right now, if Bauer were to suffer an injury in 2022, he’d have a $17MM player option for the 2023 season. If he opts out this winter, however, he could aim to negotiate something similar to or greater than his original three-year, $102MM guarantee with the Dodgers. Bauer could still secure a huge salary in year one of a new contract but give himself a greater safety net against injury or decline. He also won’t have a qualifying offer to deal with this time and would be entering what most expect to be a market with more teams willing to spend. With a 2.50 ERA, 34.7 percent strikeout rate and 7.3 percent walk rate, the current NL strikeout leader is enjoying the kind of start that will make him think about it.

Nick Castellanos, OF, Reds (can opt out of remaining two years, $34MM): If Castellanos keeps hitting anywhere near this pace, that opt-out clause will assuredly be exercised. His age-29 season has kicked off with an outstanding .303/.346/.607 slash, and he already has 18 extra-base hits (nine homers, eight doubles, one triple) in just 126 plate appearances. Castellanos fizzled after a similarly electric start in 2020, so we’ll have to see if he maintains — but he’s one of the best hitters on the planet right now.

Charlie Blackmon, OF, Rockies ($21MM player option for 2022; $10MM player option for 2023): The Colorado fan favorite has come to life after a woeful start to the 2020 season. Over his past 13 games, Blackmon is hitting .319/.396/.447 with more walks than strikeouts. That surge still only has his season line up to .222/.328/.343 in 125 plate appearances, though, so Blackmon has plenty of work to do before he’d even consider opting out of a $21MM payday in what will be his age-35 season.

J.D. Martinez, OF/DH, Red Sox ($19.375MM player option for 2022): An ugly 2020 season had many wondering whether Martinez was beginning to decline. It seems safe to stop wondering. The first few weeks of the 2021 season have been some of the finest of JDM’s career; offense around the league is down, but he apparently didn’t get the memo, as he’s destroyed opposing pitchers at a .331/.416/.632 clip. His  10 dingers give him a share of the MLB lead. While there were some conflicting reports on the number of opt-outs in his contract at the time of the deal, MLBTR confirmed this week that Martinez has a $19.375MM player option for the 2022 season on his deal, so he’s controlling his own fate, so to speak. If he keeps hitting like this, why wouldn’t he test the market again (or at least parlay his performance into an extension in Boston)?

Jackie Bradley Jr., OF, Brewers ($11MM player option for 2022): The Bradley signing hasn’t panned out for the Brewers just yet. No one should be surprised to hear that Bradley has excellent defensive ratings through his first 260 innings in center field, but he’s hitting a mere .175/.242/.316 in 124 plate appearances. Bradley didn’t sign until a few weeks into Spring Training, and we’ve seen plenty of late signees start slowly in the past, but so far things aren’t going great.

Jurickson Profar, INF/OF, Padres ($6.5MM player option for 2022; $7.5MM player option for 2023): Profar hasn’t been anywhere near the hitter he was in 2020, slashing just .234/.333/.308 through 128 trips to the plate. The investment in Profar was always a risk. He was one of the least-productive hitters in the National League for the first month of the 2020 season and only salvaged his year with a blistering .375/.398/.534 showing in his final 93 plate appearances. That well-timed hot streak rather stunningly earned him a three-year guarantee and multiple opt-out opportunities, and he’ll need some more of that magic if he’s going to consider walking away from the $14MM he’s still owed beyond 2021. Profar is currently on the Covid-related IL for contact-tracing purposes.

Kevin Pillar, OF, Mets ($2.9MM player option for 2022): Pillar entered the season with a sub-.300 OBP for his career, and he’s not doing that mark any favors in 2021. We’re only looking at 66 plate appearances, but his .254/.288/.381 output looks more like his below-average career line than last year’s stronger showing. Pillar found a pretty frosty market for his services even on the heels of last summer’s .288/.336/.462 performance, so if he doesn’t turn things around at the plate, it wouldn’t be a shock to see him pick up the option.

Justin Wilson, LHP, Yankees ($2.3MM player option for 2022; Yankees hold $7.15MM club option/$1.15MM buyout if Wilson declines): Wilson has served up a pair of homers, walked five batters, hit a batter, and yielded a total of six runs in 8 2/3 innings. He also opened the year on the IL due to shoulder soreness, and his average fastball velocity is down at 93.7 mph after sitting at 95.1 mph in each of the past two seasons. A reliever with Wilson’s track record can turn things around in a hurry, but it hasn’t been the start he or the team envisioned. If Wilson exercises his player option, it triggers a 2023 club option valued at $500K over the league minimum, meaning he’d only do so with a particularly poor year on the mound.

Brett Gardner, OF, Yankees ($2.3MM player option for 2022; Yankees hold $7.15M club option/$1.15MM buyout if Gardner declines): The Yankees lifer hasn’t shown much life at the plate in 2021, hitting .190/.284/.238 in 75 turns at the dish. He has just one multi-hit game to his credit so far in 2021 and is being used in his most limited role ever.

Darren O’Day, Yankees, RHP ($1.4MM player option for 2022): The 38-year-old O’Day has been great for the Yankees through nine innings, but he’s currently on the injured list due to a strained rotator cuff in his shoulder. As long as he comes back and demonstrates his health, he should be expected to decline his option in favor of a $700K buyout. He’s only securing himself an additional $700K if he picks the option up — barely more than the current league minimum (which could very well rise in the offseason CBA talks).

Dellin Betances, RHP, Mets ($1-3MM player option depending on number of games pitched): Betances needs to reach 60 games pitched in 2021 for his player option to be valued at $2MM and 70 games for it to check in at $3MM. So far, he’s pitched one. It’s all but certain to be a $1MM player option on the righty, who may still take the deal given how catastrophic the last few years have been. Betances is on the 60-day IL with a shoulder impingement at the moment, and since Opening Day 2019, he’s totaled just 13 2/3 innings due to injuries.

Beyond this group, there’s also a conditional player option in the Mariners’ deal with left-hander Yusei Kikuchi. Seattle has until three days after the World Series wraps up to decide whether it wants to exercise a quartet of one-year, $16.5MM options on Kikuchi — a total of four years and $66MM. All four must be exercised together. If they do not make that sizable investment, Kikuchi then has a one-year, $13MM player option for the 2022 season on which he must decide.

At least based on Kikuchi’s career numbers in MLB, it seems unlikely that the Mariners would pick up their end of the deal. He’s compiled a 5.22 ERA through his first 246 1/3 big league innings. That said, Kikuchi saw a major velocity spike in 2020 that he’s actually improved upon again in 2021. Fielding-independent metrics were much more bullish on him than ERA in 2020 (3.30 FIP, 3.37 xERA, 3.78 xFIP, 4.34 SIERA), and this year’s current 4.30 ERA is respectable. He’s also sporting career-bests in swinging-strike rate, opponents’ chase rate, walk rate and ground-ball rate.

It’s still a long shot that the Mariners will pick up all four years on Kikuchi, who’ll turn 30 in June. However, that may simply set him up for a return to the market. It’s certainly plausible that he pitches well enough to command more than the $13MM salary on his player option but less than the four years and $66MM on the Mariners’ end of the arrangement.

Reds Activate Shogo Akiyama From Injured List, Shuffle Defensive Alignment

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The Reds announced Friday that they’ve reinstated outfielder Shogo Akiyama from the 10-day injured list and put Joey Votto on the injured list in his place. Votto is expected to be out three to four weeks after fracturing his thumb in yesterday’s game. Akiyama has yet to play in 2021 due to a hamstring injury.

Perhaps of more interest to Reds fans will be the new-look defensive alignment the team is rolling out in the wake of Votto’s injury and Akiyama’s return. They’ll open this weekend’s series against the Indians with Mike Moustakas sliding over to first base in Votto’s place, while Nick Senzel moves from center field to second base. Eugenio Suarez is back at third base today, with Kyle Farmer stepping in for him at shortstop. Tyler Naquin is in Senzel’s customary center field, and Akiyama is getting a day in left while Jesse Winker serves as the designated hitter.

This particular alignment obviously won’t be the norm in Votto’s absence, as the Reds won’t have the DH in most of the games they play over the next month. But Moustakas sliding over to first base and Senzel moving from a crowded outfield into the infield could be frequently featured tactics. Second baseman Jonathan India has ample experience at third base, of course, so it’s possible we’ll see a frequent infield of India, Suarez, Senzel and Moustakas. Meanwhile, the Reds will rotate Winker, Naquin, Nick Castellanos and Akiyama in the outfield. Presumably, with the first three all hitting so well to begin the year, they’ll be viewed as the starting trio.

That said, the club surely still has hope of a better performance for Akiyama in is second season at the MLB level. The former Seibu Lions star signed a three-year, $21MM deal with Cincinnati in the 2019-20 offseason, and while he got on base at a nice clip last year, he struggled to hit for much average or power. The now-33-year-old Akiyama batted .245/.357/.297 with six doubles, a triple, no home runs and seven steals (10 attempts) through his first 183 big league plate appearances.

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