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Archives for December 2013

Qualifying Offer And Draft Pick Compensation Update

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Unsurprisingly, the Yankees and Red Sox are at the center of the draft pick movement relating to players who declined qualifying offers. After all, they made six of this year's thirteen QOs, all of which were declined. (Click here for a refresher on how things work, courtesy of former MLBTR writer Ben Nicholson-Smith.)

Yesterday, we saw quite a few moves that had draft pick implications. The Yanks added Hiroki Kuroda and Carlos Beltran. Meanwhile, the club saw outgoing free agents Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson sign with the Mariners and Mets, respectively. Finally, Boston agreed to terms with Mike Napoli.

With Kuroda and Napoli rejoining their former clubs, their signings will not result in any draft pick changes. But the Yankees' other signings, in concert with their earlier deals with Jacoby Ellsbury and Brian McCann, mean that the team stands to lose one pick in the aggregate: New York will give up its first round pick while sacrificing the two compensatory picks it would otherwise have received for the departure of Cano and Granderson. (As Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News reports via Twitter, an MLB official confirmed this result.)

As things stand, the Mariners and Mets also stand to sacrifice a pick (both of which will be second-rounders), while the Cardinals, Red Sox, and Braves are each in line to gain a compensatory selection. The remaining free agents that are tied to compensation are Shin-Soo Choo, Nelson Cruz, Stephen Drew, Ubaldo Jimenez, Kendrys Morales, and Ervin Santana.

AL East Notes: Beltran, Red Sox, Orioles

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Last night's signing of Carlos Beltran emerged out of multi-team negotiations, tweets Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. As Heyman explains, Beltran's representatives at MVP Sports Group told the Yankees that two teams had offered three years and $48MM. GM Brian Cashman responded by offering $45MM for that term, but said the club would move on to Shin-Soo Choo if it did not receive a quick response. Obviously, Beltran took the Yanks offer. Here's more from the AL East:

  • The Orioles allowed Nate McLouth and Scott Feldman to leave Baltimore for other teams yesterday without making formal offers to retain them, Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun reported yesterday. Connolly discussed those decisions this morning, arguing that the pair is not irreplaceable, but nevertheless must be replace in some manner. While executive vice president Dan Duqutte is excited about the recently-added Francisco Peguero, Connolly notes, the club ought to add at least one "legitimate free agent" to fill one of the club's holes.
  • O's skipper Buck Showalter acknowledged that the team will need some players to step up to fill some roles, reports the Sun's Eduardo Encina, but he sees that as a challenge and an opportunity for some of the team's younger players. He also said that he anticipates more additions, particularly in the outfield. "We're looking at everybody and who's available, whether it be a free agent or a trade," said Showalter. "I'm personally looking from within to what I would do, where I would go." Though the club is actively shopping, Showalter noted the difficulties facing Baltimore in the present market. "As people become available and an option for us, Dan [Duquette] and I talk about it," he said. "It's obviously a player's market right now."  
  • For the Red Sox, the decision to bring back Napoli leaves the club with ample depth in left field and at first, notes Alex Speier of WEEI.com. (Twitter links.) Nevertheless, Boston GM Ben Cherington is not expected to address the team's remaining needs — namely, another left-side infielder and another outfielder capable of playing center — by dealing from that depth. As Speier notes, Jonny Gomes and (in particular) Mike Carp could bring back a useful return if they were to be shopped.
  • Speier also took a deeper look at Boston's payroll and financial considerations in the wake of the Napoli signing.
  • Boston remains more likely to deal one of its own starters than to add a new one, writes Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal. Though the club was burned in the past when it dealt Bronson Arroyo, says MacPherson, the team's organizational depth is in much better shape this time around.
  • Meanwhile, Cherington indicated that the club may not have any further major moves. "It could be we've done most of our heavy lifting for the winter," he told reporters, including Tim Britton of the Providence Journal. (Twitter links.) The club has now "probably shifted more to the opportunistic part of the offseason," Cherington said. The GM did confirm that the team is looking to make an addition on the left side of the infield, notes Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald (via Twitter), though it has not yet determined whether it will be a major addition or a more complementary piece.

Dodgers Re-Sign Brian Wilson

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SATURDAY: The Dodgers officially announced Wilson's signing via press release.

THURSDAY, 9:19pm: Wilson has passed his physical, so the deal is now official, Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times tweets.

1:39pm: The Dodgers have reached an agreement with reliever Brian Wilson, tweets Yahoo's Tim Brown.  It's a one-year, $10MM deal with a second year player option.  Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports (on Twitter) that the option's value is $9MM, meaning that Wilson is guaranteed at least $19MM on this two-year pact.  Jim Bowden of ESPN and MLB Network Radio tweets that Wilson has another $700K of incentives built into each year of the deal.

Wilson-Brian

Though Wilson will be receiving closer money from the Dodgers, he's fine with setting up Kenley Jansen if that's how it works out, notes Brown.  Paying Wilson closer money can be offset by the fact that Jansen will be paid more like a setup man, as he projects to earn $4.8MM in arbitration this offseason, per MLBTR's Matt Swartz.

Wilson signed a $1MM, Major League contract with the Dodgers on July 30th last year after a long recovery from April 2012 Tommy John surgery.  He returned in late August in dominant fashion, yielding just one run with a 21-to-6 K/BB ratio in 19 2/3 innings between the regular season and the playoffs.  His strong showing put him in line for a significant payday on the free agent market, and there was widespread interest in the bearded flamethrower.  The Tigers, Mariners and Rockies were among the other teams interested in Wilson.

Wilson's player option is a nice safeguard for he and his agents at the MVP Sports Group.  Should he thrive in Los Angeles as he did over his brief tenure there in 2013, he will hit the open market in the 2014-15 offseason as perhaps the top closer on the free agent market, positioning himself for a significant payday entering his age-33 season.  Should he fall to injury or suffer a down season, he can simply elect to take a $9MM payday and look to cash in heading into his age-34 season, which we've seen numerous relievers do.  Wilson's $10MM guarantee is slightly more than the one-year, $8.5MM guarantee that MLBTR's Steve Adams pegged him for in his free agent profile of Wilson back in late October.

Steve Adams contributed to this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Yankees Receiving Significant Interest In Brett Gardner

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After inking outfielder Carlos Beltran last night, the Yankees have received "significant interest" in Brett Gardner, reports Andy McCullough of the Star-Ledger (via Twitter). The club is willing to deal Gardner, says McCullough, though it is not actively shopping him.

Gardner, 30, is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $4MM in his final go through arbitration before reaching the open market next year. The capable center fielder posted a .273/.344/.416 line in 609 plate appearances last year, good for 4.2 rWAR. Though his value is limited by the lack of significant team control, his low salary and ability to play any outfield position make him an intriguing trade target.

Meanwhile, for the Yanks, dealing Gardner is one possible way for the club to address other needs while using internal options in hs place. Though he played center last year in the Bronx, Jacoby Ellslbury figures to occupy that role going forward. The team could keep Alfonso Soriano in an outfield role, rather than shifting him to DH, if it were to make a deal. New York also still has Ichiro Suzuki under contract for next season, and the recently-signed Kelly Johnson spent a good deal of time in the outfield last year for Tampa.

Red Sox To Sign Edward Mujica

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SATURDAY: The deal is official, with the club issuing a press release announcing Mujica's signing. As the Red Sox note, the team's 40-man roster is now at full capacity. Mujica's contract includes up to $1MM in incentives based upon games finished, tweets Alex Speier of WEEI.com.

THURSDAY: The Red Sox have agreed to terms on a two-year, $9.5MM contract with right-hander Edward Mujica, according to Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports. Mujica, who is represented by Octagon, will take a physical today, according to Passan.

Mujica-Edward

Mujica, 29, possesses some of the best command of any pitcher in the Majors. He issued just five walks in 64 2/3 innings this season to go along with 46 strikeouts and a 2.78 ERA. Mujica entered the season buried on St. Louis' bullpen depth chart but ascended to the role of closer. Jason Motte underwent Tommy John surgery, Mitchell Boggs flopped and the Cardinals elected to deploy rookie Trevor Rosenthal in a setup role. The end result was Mujica notching 37 saves for the Redbirds, though he wilted down the stretch and was a complete non-factor in the playoffs.

Mujica's late-season swoon likely cost him several million dollars, as did a free agent market stuffed with closer types of relievers. Mujica, Joe Nathan, Grant Balfour, Fernando Rodney, Joaquin Benoit, Chris Perez, Kevin Gregg and Jose Veras all saved 20-plus games in 2013.  The market also features plenty of former closers in the form of John Axford, Brian Wilson and Andrew Bailey (Axford and Bailey were non-tendered), further presenting teams with late-inning alternatives that helped to suppress Mujica's price tag.

Mujica will join a Red Sox bullpen that figures to be once again anchored by Koji Uehara. Junichi Tazawa, Craig Breslow and a presumably healthy Andrew Miller should join Mujica in bridging the gap to Uehara as the BoSox look to capture a second consecutive World Series title.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Orioles Sign Francisco Peguero

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The Orioles officially announced today, via press release, that they have reached a Major League deal with outfielder Francisco Peguero. Peguero, who is represented by Dan Rosquete and Elliott Vallin of Boston Sports Counsel, will earn $550K next season with Baltimore, tweets Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com.

Peguero, 25, was non-tendered by the Giants earlier in the week. He's batted .200/.217/.289 in a pair of brief Major League stints (46 plate appearances) but has fared better in the minor leagues. Peguero is a career .288/.318/.399 hitter in 764 plate appearances at the Triple-A level, though those numbers are likely dampened a bit by a knee injury that required arthroscopic surgery.  

Rosquete and Vallin did a nice job securing a Major League deal for their client given his scant MLB experience.  The Orioles have been aggressive in securing players of this nature, having also given MLB deals to Kelvin De La Cruz and Edgmer Escalona. Indeed, Baltimore could be a nice landing spot for Peguero. As Kubatko reports, executive vice president Dan Duquette said that Peguero has big league talent. "He just needs an opportunity," said Duquette. "I'm glad we could add him to the organization."

Prior to the 2013 season, Baseball America ranked Peguero eighth among Giants prospects, noting that he had perhaps the best combination of power and speed in the Giants' system. BA called Peguero a "hyper-aggressive" hitter, likening his approach to that of his now-former teammate, Pablo Sandoval. BA also noted that he has the tools to profile as a regular in the Majors if he can improve his recognition of the strike zone.

Kubatko first reported the signing via Twitter, while Chris Cotillo of MLB Daily Dish first connected the two sides earlier in the week (Twitter link).  

Rockies And Athletics Explored Brett Anderson Trade

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The Rockies and Athletics talked yesterday about a potential trade involving A's left-handed starter Brett Anderson, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, but were not able to line up on a deal. The clubs are not expected to revisit the possibility of Anderson moving to Colorado, Rosenthal adds.

Anderson has been one of the most interesting trade targets reportedly available. Though the 6'4 southpaw has seen his last several seasons derailed by Tommy John surgery and a fracture in his right foot, he is just 25 years of age and still has plenty of upside. Anderson threw 175 1/3 innings and posted a 4.06 ERA as a rookie in 2009, but has not maintained a full season of starting work since. When healthy, Anderson has generally been effective; he has a lifetime ERA of 3.81 in 450 2/3 innings. Last season was his roughest on the mound, as he posted a 6.04 ERA in 44 2/3 innings, though metrics like FIP (3.85) and xFIP (3.26) were much more favorable. 

Meanwhile, for the Rockies, MLBTR's Zach Links wrote before the off-season that the rotation was an area that the club could make an impactful addition. After adding LaTroy Hawkins to the bullpen and Justin Morneau at first via free agency, but shedding the salary of Dexter Fowler via trade, Colorado might be in a position to take on payroll obligations for a starter. Anderson is due to be paid $8MM next season and comes with a $12MM option for 2015 ($1.5MM buyout). 

Market Reset: 2013-14 Free Agent Spending To Date

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*Updated to reflect last night's signings of Mike Napoli by the Red Sox and Carlos Beltran by the Yankees. 

We have all heard the talk of new money infusing the game of baseball, and early free agent spending seems to reflect that. The numbers on the recent run of free agent signings sound high, but what do they tell us about overall spending levels? A quick look reveals that, indeed, spending seems destined to rise significantly this year.

Working from the MLBTR Free Agent Tracker, and taking out the non-guaranteed deals and exercised options that are reflected in that database, MLB clubs have now committed nearly $1.24B to free agents for the 2013-14 signing period. (That number includes today's share of the binge, at least as of the moment of publication.) That money has gone to 55 players and guaranteed a total of 126 years. Teams have, to date, given out an average guarantee of $22.52MM per player at an average annual value of $9.83MM. 

Let's try and put that in context. I have been hard at work compiling various information on spending over the 2007-08 through 2012-13 signing seasons. (There will be plenty more to come on that, so consider this a preview.) The results show that we could be looking ahead to some remarkable new levels.

Here are the total dollars committed by season through free agency over the last six, completed signing seasons, compared to the current one. Note that prior years include all free agent spending, while this year's figures are only as of today (in $MMs):

Free agent spending table

As these numbers show, the league is well on its way to shattering previous high free agent spending totals: current commitments are already just under 85% of last year's sum, but we have probably seen less than half of the MLB deals that ultimately will be signed. Indeed, at last look, only half of MLBTR's top fifty free agents have reached agreement so far. 

Of course, the rate figures presented in the table will probably drop as the Robinson Cano and Jacoby Ellsbury deals are balanced out by smaller, shorter contracts. And it is doubtful that the other half of the market will command as much as the first half has. Indeed, as the table shows, the total number of years guaranteed through free agency has been fairly uniform. If that is any indication, teams may not be handing out all that many more multiyear deals, having already signed up to pay for 126 years to date; over 60% of the deals signed thus far have been for multiple seasons, an unsustainable level.

If we do a more apples-to-apples comparison, the multiyear deals we've seen thus far are also coming in above historical levels. Again, we might expect some regression here, but the initial returns are interesting to look at. Compared only to multiyear deals signed in past seasons, here is where the rates presently stand:

Free agent spending table multi-year only

As this chart hints, there are some interesting similarities so far between this signing season and the 2007-08 period, which came before the global economic downturn. But that will have to remain a topic for another day. For now, while it is still too early to know where things will fall out, the total commitments per player and AAV numbers will be worth watching over the rest of the signing season.

And it is probably not too early to say that, at this point, it would be a considerable surprise not to see a sizeable jump in overall free agent spending levels when we ultimately look back on this signing season.

Quick Hits: Astros, Papelbon, Happ, Betancourt

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As we wind up one of the busiest weeks in the history of baseball transactions, here are a few more notes as we head into the weekend…

  • Astros GM Jeff Luhnow is happy to have acquired Dexter Fowler and Scott Feldman before the Winter Meetings, but Luhnow tells reporters (including Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle) that his club has more on its to-do list.  “To have them both done before the Winter Meetings is a bonus," Luhnow said.  "So now that we can focus on the bullpen and focus on potentially another position player somewhere….We may not be done with starting pitching either.  We’re still actively talking to some other folks.”
  • With the Phillies reportedly shopping closer Jonathan Papelbon, Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Daily News feels the team will have a tough time given Papelbon's large salary, signs of decline and his possible attitude issues.
  • J.A. Happ could be a trade chip for the Blue Jays if the team needed to free up some payroll space, Sportsnet's Ben Nicholson-Smith writes.  Happ is set to earn $5.2MM in 2014 with a $6.7MM team option for 2015.  The southpaw was limited to 18 starts in 2013 due to head injuries suffered when he was hit in the head with a line drive, as well as a knee injury also stemming from the incident.
  • Also from Nicholson-Smith, nothing is imminent with Yuniesky Betancourt, though a number of teams are still interested in the veteran as infield depth.  The Marlins were linked to Betancourt last month.
  • Erisbel Barbaro Arruebarruena has a good glove at shortstop, is lacking at the plate and is overall not going to provide the impact of recent Cuban signings, a scout tells MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo.  "This isn’t like watching Aroldis Chapman or Yoenis Cespedes. You’re not going to hear from 15 teams. You’ll hear from teams that are hurting a little bit at shortstop," the scout said.  Arruebarruena will showcase his skills for teams this weekend, and the Mets have been identified as one of the attending clubs.

Central Notes: Phillips, Axford, Joba, Buck

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Here's the latest news from both the NL and AL Central divisions…

  • The Brandon Phillips trade rumors may have temporarily stopped, though Reds president/CEO Bob Castellini left the door slightly open when talking to reporters today (including MLB.com's Mark Sheldon and the Cincinnati Enquirer's John Fay).  "Brandon is part of the team, boys," Castellini said.  "Walt [GM Walt Jocketty] was just exploring.  You have to understand what he's up against. He's got to look around. Brandon Phillips is an integral part of this franchise….But you never say never."
  • The Cubs and John Axford share a mutual interest in each other, Patrick Mooney of CSNChicago.com reports.  Axford would get a chance to compete for the Cubs' closing job, though the right-hander seemingly has plenty of opportunities around the league, with a reported 14 teams checking in following his non-tender from the Cardinals.
  • The Cubs and Royals are two of the teams who have shown interest in Joba Chamberlain, Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News tweets.  No signing seems to be imminent for either team, however.  Chamberlain is another relief arm who has drawn significant attention on the open market, as he may be seen as a reclamation candidate after some tough seasons with the Yankees.
  • The Twins have spoken to John Buck's agent, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports, and a source tells Berardino that Buck is Minnesota's top target amongst available catchers.  It isn't clear how interested in the Twins are, however, given that Josmil Pinto is still the club's preferred choice to take over the everyday catching job now that Joe Mauer has been moved to first base.
  • Carl Pavano talked with Berardino about his comeback attempt from a freak snow-shoveling accident that left him with a ruptured spleen and sidelined the veteran righty for the entire 2013 season.  Pavano said the Twins haven't contacted him about a return: "I haven't really talked to them.  I don't know if that would be a good fit anyway. I think we're in different places. They need those younger guys in their rotation."

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