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Fallout From The Asdrubal Cabrera Deal

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Here are a few notes on the Rays’ new one-year agreement with Asdrubal Cabrera:

  • Perhaps the key takeaway of the Cabrera signing is that the Rays now have a surplus in their middle infield, suggesting a trade of either Ben Zobrist or Yunel Escobar. Zobrist in particular would be a very attractive addition for any number of clubs, and Mark Zuckerman of NatsInsider.com looks at the possibility that Cabrera’s old team, the Nationals, could trade for Zobrist to play second base, their only obviously weak position.
  • Zobrist is a good fit for the Giants but an even better fit for the Nationals, Grant Brisbee of McCovey Chronicles writes. The Giants might not be able to top the Nationals in a bidding war, since the Nats, for whom second base is their only significant need, could be highly motivated to acquire Zobrist. Brisbee also notes that it’s strange that Cabrera would head to Tampa Bay on a one-year deal with the intention of building his value, since Tropicana Field figures to limit his offensive output.
  • Cabrera’s signing leaves one less player for the Yankees to sign, Brendan Kuty of NJ.com writes. They could still pursue Cuban infielder Hector Olivera, to whom they’ve been connected, to play second base. Stephen Drew and Rickie Weeks are other possibilities. They could deal for Zobrist, although a trade between the Yankees and their divisional rivals in Tampa seems unlikely. They could also simply go with Rob Refsnyder and Jose Pirela.

AL Notes: Tigers, Mariners, East

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The Tigers suffered a notable bullpen collapse last season, but they may find one bullpen solution internally, writes Chris Iott of MLive.com. Righty Angel Nesbitt brings upper-90’s gas and improving secondary pitches, according to assistant GM Al Avila. While the 24-year-old Nesbitt is expected to open the season in the minors, he’s currently on the 40-man roster and isn’t the type of prospect whose club control needs to be closely managed. Nesbitt reached Double-A for the first time last season, posting a 2.23 ERA, 10.02 K/9, and 4.18 BB/9. Here are more notes from the American League.

  • Mariners Rule 5 pick David Rollins will likely compete for a lefty relief role this season, Ryan Divish writes for Baseball America. Seattle drafted Rollins in both 2009 and 2010 but didn’t sign him. He posted a 3.81 ERA with 8.9 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 in 78 innings pitching in the Astros’ Double-A Corpus Christi affiliate last season. “He could be a starter. He could be a bullpen guy,” says GM Jack Zduriencik. “But it’s a pretty good fastball. He’s got a breaking ball. He’s got velocity. He’s a tough kid. We have history with him.”
  • The AL East has spent heavily this offseason, but its teams still have plenty of work to be done, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca writes. The Blue Jays will likely hunt for relief help and possibly also for a second baseman, the Red Sox and Yankees could still be contenders for top starting pitching, the Orioles can use outfield help, and the Rays have historically often added talent late in the offseason.

Minor Moves: Mike McDade

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Here are today’s minor moves from around the league.

  • The Rangers have signed first baseman Mike McDade to a minor-league deal, Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News writes. McDade, 25, hit .242/.298/.349 at Double-A New Hampshire and Triple-A Buffalo in the Blue Jays system last season. He was drafted and developed by the Blue Jays, but also played in the White Sox and Indians systems before rejoining the Toronto organization.

Extension Candidate: Jason Heyward

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New Cardinals outfielder Jason Heyward only has one season remaining before free agency, and St. Louis likely has the financial flexibility to sign him long term. It’s not surprising, then, that there’s been some discussion in the St. Louis media about the possibility that the Cardinals would extend him. For the right price, Heyward (who’s already set to make $8.3MM in 2015) would be an exceptionally strong extension candidate.

USATSI_5294908_154513410_lowres Heyward won’t turn 26 until next August, and he has an excellent all-around game that includes plus defense to go with good on-base ability, reasonable power and above-average baserunning. He might also be able to retain his value as his defense declines, too — his control over the strike zone and toolsy profile suggest he might still have headroom as a hitter.

Of course, the same factors that make Heyward a good extension candidate would also make the Casey Close client a very attractive free agent. The fact that free agency is so near makes an extension a different proposition than it was when MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes examined Heyward’s candidacy early in the 2013 season.

Perhaps the best precedents for an extension for a top position player with between five and six years of service time are those of Matt Kemp (eight years, $160MM) and Adrian Gonzalez (seven years, $154MM). Heyward isn’t, or isn’t yet, the offensive player that Kemp or Gonzalez were — Kemp was coming off a .324/.399/.586 season at the time of his extension, while Gonzalez had just hit .298/.393/.511 in pitcher-friendly San Diego. But average salaries have skyrocketed throughout the game since those contracts were signed in 2011 (the average MLB salary jumped 12 percent just last year), and we should expect extensions to keep pace.

Also, Heyward is two years younger than Kemp was and more than three years younger than Gonzalez at the times of their contracts, a significant matter when the contract would begin with the player heading into his age-25 season (or age-26, depending on how one wants to look at it) rather than his age-27 season (Kemp) or age-29 season (Gonzalez). And Heyward is a far better defensive player than either Kemp or Gonzalez, with a UZR of 24.1 last season and of at least 12 for three seasons straight. Historically, that’s not an attribute that figures to get Heyward paid like huge power numbers would, but it makes it that less likely that his next contract will be a bust — Heyward’s on-base ability and excellent defense significantly limit his downside.

Jacoby Ellsbury’s seven-year, $153MM deal with the Yankees, signed as a free agent after the 2013 season, provides a recent precedent for a contract for a star-caliber, left-handed outfielder with defensive value. Again, though, Heyward is far younger than Ellsbury, an enormous point in his favor.

Given Heyward’s youth, it isn’t hard to see an extension heading toward at least eight years rather than seven — a nine-year extension would only go through his age-33 season, and even a deal of ten years or more doesn’t seem ridiculous. Heyward isn’t likely to reach the same stratospheric heights as Giancarlo Stanton ($325MM) or Miguel Cabrera ($248MM), but those head-spinning deals should help keep the market trending upward, and it isn’t hard to see Heyward clearing $200MM, as Fangraphs’ Dave Cameron proposed last month. Heyward could also seek an opt-out clause, like Stanton, and like fellow Close clients Zack Greinke, Clayton Kershaw and Masahiro Tanaka.

Or maybe the idea that Heyward is a $200MM player after a .271/.351/.384 season simply won’t add up, regardless of his youth and defense. But perhaps, from Heyward’s perspective, not matching the Stanton or Cabrera deals doesn’t mean he can’t come out ahead in the end. Heyward is so young that he could play his way through a nine-figure extension and still be young enough to land another.

Seen from that angle, a shorter deal, perhaps modeled on Mike Trout’s six-year, $144MM contract, might make sense. Heyward isn’t as young or as good as Trout, but he might be able to land only a similar total over six years because Trout’s contract began with three pre-free-agency seasons and Heyward’s would only begin with one.  That way, Heyward could hit free agency heading into his age-31 season, at which point he would still be young enough to hit it big. A nine-year deal, say, would be much more lucrative, but would probably leave him too old to net another huge contract after it’s over.

That route is probably unlikely, however. Heyward is only one year from free agency and has little reason to give the Cardinals a discount, and he was not particularly motivated to sign an extension with the Braves. That might suggest Heyward could either sign a huge deal for eight-plus years, or hope for a big season, test the free agent market and perhaps wind up with a contract that’s even longer. When you’re as young and as good as Heyward, there are few bad choices.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

International Profile: Jung-ho Kang

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The Pirates won the bidding for Korean shortstop Jung-ho Kang last week for a little over $5MM and now are in the midst of a 30-day exclusive negotiating window. Kang is an unusual case due to his excellent numbers, the extremely hitter-friendly environment in which he produced those numbers, and the lack of precedent for a position player coming from the Korean Baseball Organization to the big leagues.

Pros/Strengths

Kang was the best overall player in the KBO this season, hitting a ridiculous .356/.459/.739 while manning shortstop for Nexen. That marked a leap forward from his previous season, but at 27, he would likely be able to maintain a very high level of performance if he remained in Korea. Kang finished second in the KBO in homers and third in the league in doubles. He also finished eighth in walks. Even in an extremely offense-heavy league, Kang stood out — his 1.198 OPS was easily better than that of his Nexen teammate Byung-ho Park, who finished second in that category at 1.119.

An international scouting director told MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes this fall, perhaps unsurprisingly, that he feels Kang has above-average raw power. The scouting director added that Kang was an intelligent player with good instincts, suggesting he should be able to make the most of his tools. Ryan Sadowski of Global Sporting Integration told Jeff Todd on the latest edition of the MLBTR Podcast that Kang could hit 20 home runs per season in the Majors.

While it’s unclear whether Kang can stick in the middle infield (more on that below), he played shortstop, indicating that he has at least some positional value. If he were to play middle infield in the big leagues while hitting for even a fraction of the power he demonstrated in Korea, he would be a useful player indeed.

Cons/Weaknesses

So why didn’t Kang attract a bid significantly above $5MM? First, it’s difficult to put his offensive numbers in context. KBO teams averaged 5.62 runs per game in 2014, and Nexen averaged 6.57, compared to 4.18 in the AL and 3.95 in the NL. The KBO contains a number of marginal former MLB players, such as Eric Thames, Felix Pie and Jorge Cantu, who have posted what appear on the surface to be star-caliber offensive numbers, strongly suggesting that the league isn’t even at the level of Triple-A baseball in the US. Dan Szymborski, who created the ZiPS projection system, tweets that the KBO plays as a hitter-friendly Double-A league, and C.J. Nitkowski of FOX Sports notes that he himself was a Game 1 starter in Korea at age 36, near the end of a career spent bouncing around Triple-A, the big leagues, and Japan. It’s possible Kang’s power won’t be enough in the big-leagues, especially in PNC Park, which suppresses homers and is particularly tough on right-handed batters. Sadowski says that Kang is a “mistake hitter,” comparing him to a No. 7 hitter in the big leagues (although Sadowski still seems to feel Kang is a likely MLB regular overall).

The international scouting director to whom Dierkes spoke said that Kang does not possess plus tools, noting that his raw power is not likely to translate well to the Majors. The director compared Kang to Japanese shortstop Hiroyuki Nakajima, who signed a two-year deal with the Athletics prior to the 2013 season but never reached the big leagues. Kang is the better player, the scouting director said, but the two players are similar.

There are also questions about whether Kang can stick at shortstop. He wins praise for his arm and hands, but he isn’t fast and has a relatively thick build, so perhaps third base might make more sense for him. He’ll also have to transition from playing on turf in Korea and will need to work on charging in on grounders, as Sadowski noted.

Context

Kang is an extremely difficult player to evaluate because he’s the first Korean position player to transition from a league that plays very differently from the Majors, or even from NPB in Japan, which has had a relatively large number of players make the leap to the US. Hyun-jin Ryu was the first KBO player to be posted, and Kang, if he signs, will be the first Korean position player to arrive via the posting system.

There have been Korean position players in the big leagues, of course, like Shin-Soo Choo, but Choo signed with the Mariners at 18 and honed his craft in the U.S. minor leagues, not in the KBO. There’s also Ryu, who did play in the KBO, but Ryu is an unusual player who dominated the KBO while playing a completely different position, so his MLB success might not suggest that Kang can follow a similar path. The very different posting fees for each — $25.7MM for Ryu, a bit over $5MM for Kang — suggest teams don’t believe Kang is the talent Ryu was.

Still, Kang’s dominant offensive numbers, positional value and relative youth look awfully tempting. While there’s reason to question Kang’s power numbers in the KBO, there’s also surely something to be said for the fact that he was the best player in the league this year. If he can stick in the middle infield (or maybe even if he can provide solid defense at third base), it’s possible to see him providing enough offensive value to be an asset.

Likely Contract

Kang reportedly would like a deal for $5MM-$6MM per season, perhaps for up to four years. The Pirates have until late January to negotiate with him, and their $5MM would be returned if they’re unable to reach a deal.

Likely Role

The Pirates already appear fairly set in their infield, with Pedro Alvarez and Corey Hart at first base, Neil Walker at second, Jordy Mercer at shortstop and Josh Harrison at third. Still, it’s easy to see how the Pirates might be able to find at-bats for Kang if he proves he deserves them, and as Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs noted, Kang would certainly improve the Pirates’ depth. Alvarez and Hart are both coming off poor seasons, and Alvarez is playing a new position. Walker is two years from free agency and has had nagging injuries. Mercer just posted 2.0 fWAR in a good age-27 season, but he’s never been a star. And while Harrison’s playing time looks secure after a spectacular 2014 season, the Pirates could move the former super-utility player elsewhere on the diamond if they needed to clear space for Kang at third.

The Pirates haven’t even signed Kang yet and thus haven’t revealed their plans for him, but assuming he signs, they could have him begin in Triple-A, or he could start the season on the big-league bench, filling in around the infield. That the Pirates won the bidding for Kang came as a surprise, not only because they aren’t usually top bidders for big-name players from Asia, but because Kang’s potential role in Pittsburgh wasn’t immediately obvious. If he turns out to be able to help, though, they can clearly find space for him.

Sherman’s Latest: Drew, Rios, Myers

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Here’s the latest from Joel Sherman of the New York Post:

  • The Blue Jays, Athletics, Cubs, White Sox and Angels are interested in Stephen Drew to play second base but don’t want to pay his $9MM-$10MM asking price, Sherman writes. There’s concern that Drew’s poor 2014 season marks the beginning of a serious decline. “Fine, you want to say June and July [last year] were spring training for him, well, how about August or September? There was never a time in which he looked like a major league hitter,” says one executive. The Yankees could have interest in him, but want to commit to Didi Gregorius at shortstop and could have concern Drew would provide an easy distraction from those plans, even if he’s signed as a second baseman. Earlier this month, we guessed Drew would get a one-year, $7MM deal.
  • The Royals signed Alex Rios this offseason even though Rios rejected a trade to Kansas City last summer, Sherman says. The Rangers tried to trade Rios to the Royals, but Rios requested that Kansas City exercise his 2015 option as a condition of the deal. The Royals said no, so Rios used his no-trade clause to stop the trade. Rios thus spent the entire season with the Rangers, refusing a chance to join a team in the midst of a playoff race.
  • There have already been rumors of the Padres trading Wil Myers to Philadelphia in a Cole Hamels deal, and Sherman writes that San Diego would, in fact, consider dealing Myers, who they might feel isn’t good enough defensively to handle center field.

Sergio Santos, Dodgers Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Dodgers have agreed to sign reliever Sergio Santos to a minor-league deal, CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman tweets. Santos, the former White Sox and Blue Jays closer, has fallen on hard times over the past three seasons due largely to injury issues. The converted infielder battled a forearm strain in 2014, a triceps strain in 2013 and underwent surgery in his right shoulder to repair a frayed labrum in 2012.

Prior to his injury issues, Santos posted a strong 3.29 ERA (2.97 FIP) with 11.6 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 in 115 innings with the White Sox. After being traded to the Blue Jays (in exchange for prospect Nestor Molina), Santos struggled in 2012 but was outstanding in 2013 prior to his triceps injury; he posted a 1.75 ERA with 9.8 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 in 25 1/3 frames out of the Toronto bullpen that season.

Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca originally tweeted that Santos was about to sign a minor-league deal with an NL West team, and Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times reported that team was the Dodgers.

Latest On Colby Rasmus, Orioles

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Yesterday, FOX Sports’ Jon Morosi noted that the Orioles have continued to talk with free agent outfield Colby Rasmus. Today, MASNsports’ Roch Kubatko explains the scope of the Orioles’ interest.

The Orioles think that Rasmus could accept a one-year deal in the $5MM-$8MM range, much like the one-year, $8MM deal to which they signed Nelson Cruz last offseason. Such a one-year deal would give Rasmus the opportunity to improve his reputation and then sign a bigger contract next offseason, just as Cruz did this winter. The Orioles don’t “covet Rasmus greatly,” according to a source of Kubatko’s, but would be interested if they got a good deal. Buck Showalter would likely want to speak to Rasmus before the Orioles signed him, just as he did with Cruz and Delmon Young, who both came with perceived character issues.

Kubatko also notes that the Orioles have interest in signing another catcher despite the recent addition of Ryan Lavarnway, who can also play first base and isn’t a lock to make the team anyway. The O’s could also have interest in first baseman and outfielder Chris Parmelee, who recently became a free agent after being outrighted by the Twins.

AL Notes: Mariners, Yankees, Olivera

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Here’s the latest from the American League:

  • The Mariners still have their eye on Padres outfielder Seth Smith, writes Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. However, it’s unclear if San Diego is eager to move Smith. Along with Will Venable, Smith is one of just two left-handed outfielders on San Diego’s 40-man roster. While the club is still expected to trade one of them, there remain several factors in play. Divish also hears that offers have been made by Seattle for Smith.
  • After today’s trade of Shawn Kelley, the Yankees appear to have 11 candidates for two bullpen jobs, writes Brendan Kuty of NJ.com. Kuty assumes the club will attempt to identify a long reliever and a spring standout to fill the spots. Chase Whitley, Bryan Mitchell, and Manny Banuelos are the top candidates for to fill in as long reliever. Of those who may be given a chance to surprise in spring training, 2014 draft Jacob Lindgren is perhaps the most interesting. Across four levels, Lindgren struck out 48 batters in 25 innings last season. He’s yet to pitch above Double-A and isn’t on the 40-man roster, so he should still be viewed as a long shot.
  • The A’s could be among the clubs interested in 30-year-old Cuban infielder Hector Olivera, opines John Hickey of the Bay Area News Group. Oakland has few internal options at second base beyond Eric Sogard. Meanwhile, Olivera hit .316/.412/.474 in the Serie Nacional last season. After returning from an injury that caused him to miss the previous season, Olivera spent the majority of his time at designated hitter. He has yet to establish residency in another country, making a spring training debut doubtful. Clubs expect Olivera to hold an open showcase once the residency issue is resolved.

Minor Moves: Stinson, Fryer, Navarro

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Here are today’s minor moves:

  • The KIA Tigers have announced the signing of right-handed pitcher Josh Stinson, tweets Global Sporting Integration. The 26-year-old will head to Korea on a one-year, $500K contract. Stinson has pitched parts of four major league seasons for the Orioles, Brewers, and Mets. In 52 and one-third career innings, he’s compiled a 4.47 ERA, 4.99 K/9, 3.61 BB/9, and a 47% ground ball rate. His most recent work came in Baltimore where he averaged 92 mph with his fastball. While major league clubs have mostly used him out of the bullpen, he’s spent much of his recent minor league career as a starter.
  • Twins catcher Eric Fryer has accepted his assignment to Triple-A, tweets Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. Fryer has appeared in parts of four seasons with the Pirates and Twins. The 29-year-old has compiled a .246/.321/.339 line in 131 career plate appearances.
  • Utility fielder Yamaico Navarro has re-signed with the Samsung Lions of the KBO, tweets Enrique Rojas of ESPN.com. It’s a one-year deal worth $950K with incentives for an additional $400K. Navarro hit .308/.417/.552 in 602 plate appearances with the Lions last season. He last appeared in the majors in 2013 with the Orioles, and has also spent time with the Pirates, Royals, and Red Sox. He saw limited work in three seasons of major league action, never exceeding 56 plate appearances with a club.

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