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2015 Amateur Draft

NL Notes: D’Backs, Marlins, Herrera, Tulowitzki

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None of the top candidates for the first overall pick in the upcoming amateur draft seem likely to command the $8.6MM+ bonus slotted for the #1 pick, MLB.com’s Jim Callis writes as part of a draft mailbag.  Callis notes that the Diamondbacks would likely save a couple of million on whomever they pick first overall, making the team’s explorations of taking a lesser-ranked prospect first to save even more bonus pool money seem rather needless.  “There’s no need to do a discount of $4 million or more, and it’s unlikely there will be enough quality players to spend that much extra money on in later rounds,” Callis writes.

Here’s more from the National League:

  • The Marlins’ decision not to pursue Rafael Soriano does not indicate that the team is not going to look to spur change in its pen, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro writes. Nevertheless, the focus is now internal. A.J. Ramos is just beginning his audition in the closer’s role, and should get a fairly long look. Otherwise, righties David Phelps and Tom Koehler could be shifted to full-time bullpen roles. It makes sense for Miami to see how things look with in-house changes now, of course, to gather information before the summer trade market heats up.
  • Mets second baseman Dilson Herrera is headed to the DL with a broken middle finger on this throwing hand, Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com reports (Twitter links). Third baseman and utilityman Eric Campbell will slide into the mix for the time being. It remains to be seen how long Herrera will be out, but his absence could impact the club in a multitude of ways. For one thing, it reduces (or even eliminates) the possibility that Herrera will seize the everyday job and render Daniel Murphy a trade piece — an admittedly somewhat unlikely scenario to begin with, especially given David Wright’s prolonged absence. Also of note: the decision to tab Campbell means that the team is not yet ready to bump Wilmer Flores off of shortstop, which was at least a theoretical alternative if Matt Reynolds had received the call. Unless and until Flores can curb his difficulties in the field, the position will remain an area of focus. As Andy Martino of the New York Daily News writes, the overall disposition in New York (particularly given the context of a five-game losing streak) is not terribly sunny at present.
  • The Rockies’ shortstop situation is also going to continue to get press, albeit for somewhat different reasons. Dave Cameron of Fangraphs takes a shot at valuing Troy Tulowitzki, opining that the excellent but oft-injured star would probably command something north of the Jacoby Ellsbury contract. That implies something like $50MM to $60MM in excess value in his contract, says Cameron, indicating that Tulo might bring back a package of very good prospects rather than one headlined by a super-premium young player. (Though, as Cameron notes, we should expect some mark-up for an in-season deal. Last year’s Jeff Samardzija–Addison Russell trade certainly illustrates that point.) The article suggests some possible groups of players that could theoretically be offered to Colorado.

Draft Notes: Rodgers, Braves, Diamondbacks

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We’re just over a month away from the 2015 amateur draft, and here’s the latest about some of the players and teams who will be in the news on June 8…

  • Florida high school shortstop Brendan Rodgers tops Baseball America’s latest ranking of the top 100 draft prospects.  Vanderbilt shortstop Dansby Swanson, UC Santa Barbara righty Dillon Tate, Louisville righty Kyle Funkhouser and LSU shortstop Alex Bregman round out the top five.
  • The ranking aside, this year’s draft class has even more difficult than usual to evaluate, as Baseball America’s John Manuel writes.  Several of the top prospects have thin or unconventional track records, while others have seen their draft stock drop due to injuries.
  • “Expect the Braves [to] buck that [industry] consensus early and often,” Manuel writes.  This will be a big draft for Atlanta, as the Braves have six of the first 89 picks and the fourth-highest draft bonus pool of any club.
  • The Diamondbacks have had discussions with right-hander Garrett Whitley and catcher Tyler Stephenson about making either high schooler the first pick in the 2015 draft, Fangraphs’ Kiley McDaniel reports.  Whitley, Stephenson and outfielder Daz Cameron (another high schooler) are named by McDaniel as the co-favorites to be the #1 pick, with Tate and Swanson as longshot options.  While Whitley, Stephenson and Cameron aren’t at the top of most draft boards, the D’Backs may be looking to take an unconventional choice ifrst overall and then sign the player to a “cut rate” contract at below slot value.  This would free up more draft pool money for Arizona to spend on their later selections.  McDaniel speculates that Whitley or Stephenson could accept a deal worth less than half the $8.616MM slot value for the first overall pick since they otherwise might not be taken in the top seven.
  • Rodgers, meanwhile, doesn’t seem to be an option for the D’Backs, as McDaniel reports that the team haven’t scouted many of his games.

Kyler Murray Opts Out Of MLB Draft

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High school shortstop/second baseman Kyler Murray tweeted today that he is withdrawing from the MLB draft. Murray was ranked 32nd in this year’s draft class by ESPN’s Keith Law, 34th by MLB.com and 15th by Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs. Rather than enter the draft, Murray will instead head to Texas A&M not only as a highly touted baseball recruit, but also as one of the nation’s top quarterback recruits.

As Baseball America’s Teddy Cahill notes, Murray is expected to compete to be the Aggies’ starter. Multiple reports have noted that a shoulder injury which limited Murray to DH for much of the year made him tough to peg, but the consensus appears to be that he had a shot to go in the first round and, had he been committed solely to baseball, perhaps quite high up in the first round.

Of note is that Murray is not merely telling teams not to draft him, as Josh Bell did in 2011 before signing with the Pirates for $5MM. Rather, he has completely removed himself from the draft pool, as McDaniel tweets, meaning that he will not be eligible to be selected by any club. Murray will likely be eligible for the 2018 draft following his junior season, provided he does not shift his focus entirely to football.

Quick Hits: Myers, Salty, Correa, Appel, Draft

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Right-hander Brett Myers, who spent parts of 12 Major League seasons with the Phillies, Astros, White Sox and Indians, said in an interview with Section215.com that he’s enjoying retired life and believes that his playing days are likely over. Myers explained that over the final few years of his playing career, he missed spending time with his children, but he now is enjoying coaching his 10-year-old son’s baseball team. In his career, the former 12th overall pick posted a 4.25 ERA a 97-96 record, 40 saves, 7.3 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in 1710 big league innings spent as both a starter and a closer. His playing days were also marred by off-field issues, including charges of domestic violence that were eventually dropped at his wife’s request, and an expletive-laced tirade aimed at a Phillies beat reporter whom he ultimately threatened with physical violence.

Some more notes from around the league…

  • Though Chris Iannetta has struggled tremendously with the bat in 2015, the Angels don’t consider Jarrod Saltalamacchia a fit, reports MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez. The 30-year-old Saltalamacchia cleared release waivers earlier today and is free to sign with any club. Gonzalez also adds that the Angels are hopeful that fellow catcher Drew Butera will clear waivers, giving them a chance to keep him in the organization following his recent DFA.
  • Astros GM Jeff Luhnow discussed the timelines for prospects Carlos Correa and Mark Appel with Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle, and Drellich notes that the 20-year-old Correa could very likely beat the 23-year-old Appel to the Majors. Luhnow acknowledged that Correa has a good chance of being promoted to Triple-A this month, once they see a bit more of how he reacts to facing teams and pitchers for the second time in Double-A. Appel, meanwhile, has struggled a bit at Double-A, and the GM said he’d like to see some consistently dominant outings from Appel before moving him up the Minor League ladder.
  • Brendan Rodgers of Florida’s Lake Mary High School is the first of three shortstops perched atop Keith Law’s list of Top 100 Draft prospects at ESPN.com (Insider subscription required and highly recommended, particularly for draft followers). Arizona’s Kevin Newman and Vanderbilt’s Dansby Swanson add a pair of college shortstops to the mix, while UC Santa Barbara righty Dillon Tate and prep lefty Kolby Allard round out the top five. Former No. 1 overall consideration Mike Matuella has dropped to 19th, as the Duke right-hander underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this spring. Last year’s No. 1 overall pick Brady Aiken sits 26th on Law’s list following his own Tommy John surgery.

All Drafted Players Now Eligible To Be Traded After World Series

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Fangraphs’ Dave Cameron reports that Major League Baseball emailed all 30 teams today to announce that, effective following this year’s draft, players selected in the amateur draft will be permitted to be traded beginning the day after the conclusion of the World Series.

The change is a much-needed revamp of the previous iteration, which had prohibited clubs from trading players for one year after being drafted. However, because the rules regarding players to be named later (PTBNLs) stated that teams had six months to determine the PTBNL in question, a loophole had been exploited in which prospects from the most recent draft were simply included as a PTBNL in trades that occurred more than six months after the draft in which they were selected.

In order to prevent any further loopholes, MLB has explicitly stated that any PTBNL must be eligible to be traded at the time the trade is agreed upon. In other words, draftees cannot be included as PTBNLs between their draft and the completion of the World Series.

The most recent example of this, of course, is Padres 2014 first-rounder Trea Turner. It’s one of the worst-kept secrets in baseball that Turner, selected 13th overall by the Padres, will be revealed as the PTBNL in the three-team Wil Myers/Steven Souza trade. Turner will be officially eligible to be traded to the Nationals in early June, but he’s spent the entirety of Spring Training and the early portion of the season with the Padres organization due to the previous iteration of rules.

Via Cameron, the official wording of the email sent by the league is as follows:

Please be advised that the Commissioner’s Office and the Players Association have agreed to amend the Major League Rules in advance of this year’s Rule 4 Draft with respect to players-to-be-named-later (“PTBNLs”) under Rule 12(e)(2), and the trading of draft picks under Rule 3(b)(6). …commencing with players eligible for the 2015 Rule 4 Draft, (a) players selected in the Draft may be traded beginning on the day following the conclusion of the World Series, and (b) drafted players cannot be PTBNLs unless they otherwise could be traded pursuant to Rule 3(b)(6), as amended, at the time of the trade.

Turner’s situation certainly isn’t the first in which a recent draftee has been used as a PTBNL while waiting for official clearance to be included in a trade. For example, just one year ago, the Pirates acquired Ike Davis from the Mets in exchange for righty Zack Thornton and a PTBNL, who was later (on June 15) revealed to be 2013 second-round left-hander Blake Taylor.

As Cameron notes, the rule change does little for Turner, as it takes effect only in regards to players eligible in the 2015 Rule 4 (June amateur) draft. He’ll remain in development with the Padres until, presumably, June 6 — the day after the one-year anniversary of the 2014 amateur draft.

Amateur Notes: Cuba, Draft

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The latest notes on various segments of the amateur market:

  • Baseball America’s Ben Badler has released a new ranking of the top twenty Cuban prospects who still reside on the island (1-10; 11-20). The veterans at the top of the list — Yulieski Gourriel, Alfredo Despaigne, and Jose Fernandez — will be familiar to anyone who has followed player movement out of Cuba. Slotting in after that group are a series of younger players, including Yulieski’s brother Lourdes Gourriel and teenage outfielders Victor Mesa, Jorge Ona, and Julio Pablo Martinez.
  • As MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo explains, this year’s top 100 draft prospect list is heavily influenced by injuries to several top players. There is uncertainty in terms of talent as well, reaching all the way to the top of the class, which is currently led by middle infielders Brendan Rogers and Dansby Swanson along with righty Dillon Tate. What may be lacking in terms of upper echelon ability is made up for, perhaps, in depth. Given those facts, and the role of bonus pools in draft strategy, it could be rather an interesting selection season.
  • If you are already well-acquainted with those players expected to be chosen in the coming summer, then be sure to check out this early 2016-17 draft preview from Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs. Towering Oklahoma righty Alec Hansen tops his current list.

Quick Hits: Soriano, Draft, Price, Red Sox

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Scott Boras, Rafael Soriano’s agent, tells Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe that he’s getting an increasing number of calls about his client.  It’s not surprising that interest in Soriano is picking up now that the season has begun and teams are dealing with injuries or ineffective relievers in their bullpens.  The Twins, Tigers and Blue Jays have all been linked to Soriano at various points over the winter, though it’s unknown as to whether any of those teams still have any interest in the veteran.

Here’s some more from around baseball…

  • Commissioner Rob Manfred told reporters (hat tip to Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle) that he would like draft prospects’ “medical information to be made available to all clubs before the draft,” but the MLBPA hasn’t accepted this proposed change to the collective bargaining agreement.  Drellich explains the stances of both the league and the union on this issue, which most notably cropped up when the Astros didn’t sign first overall pick Brady Aiken due to concerns about his left UCL last summer.
  • David Price could be more inclined to sign with an NL team next winter since “he loves to hit,” a source tells George A. King III of the New York Post.  While this will likely be a minor factor in what could be a $200MM free agent decision for Price, maybe the desire for more plate appearances could end up being a tiebreaker if he gets otherwise similar offers from an AL and an NL team.  For what it’s worth, Price has an .071/.133/.071 slash line through 30 career PA.
  • With Edward Mujica struggling and his velocity down, CSNNE.com’s Sean McAdam wonders if the Red Sox might eventually release Mujica and eat the roughly $4MM remaining on his contract rather than let the righty continue in an important relief role.  In my opinion, releasing Mujica would be a hasty move this early in the season since his xFIP (2.78) and SIERA (2.50) hint that he isn’t that badly, and his 4.70 ERA or 6.90 FIP are due to a couple of wildly inflated peripherals (most notably, 3.52 HR/9).
  • Several of baseball’s top pitchers were acquired by their current teams before they became so-called “aces,” and Alex Speier of the Boston Globe notes that the Red Sox attempted this strategy by acquiring two pitchers with great stuff (Joe Kelly and Eduardo Rodriguez) in the hopes that one or both would develop into a rotation headliner.  This isn’t to say that the Sox might still not try to trade for an established ace in the near future, yet trying to find one in the early stages of his development is sometimes a better strategy than paying a big price to land a proven starter who might already have passed his prime.

Draft Notes: Rodgers, Fulmer, Buehler, Red Sox

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We’re about six weeks away from the June draft. Here’s the latest on what’s emerging as a thin class at the top.

  • Shortstop and top draft prospect Brendan Rodgers’ season ended Monday as Seminole beat Lake Mary in Florida’s 8A-2 playoffs, John Manuel of Baseball America notes (on Twitter). As BA’s J.J. Cooper tweets, that at least ensures that, unlike many potential early draft picks (Brady Aiken, California high school pitcher Kolby Allard, Duke pitcher Michael Matuella), Rodgers will have gotten through the season healthy. It’s been an ugly year for top-end draft talents, but Rodgers’ season ends with him at the top of MLB.com’s draft rankings, as well as Kiley McDaniel’s recent rankings for FanGraphs.
  • Vanderbilt’s Carson Fulmer had the best weekend of any top draft-eligible college pitcher, BA’s Hudson Belinsky writes. Another Vanderbilt pitcher and top draft prospect, Walker Buehler, had trouble with his command against South Carolina. His changeup has also been inconsistent. “I think that’s kind of been the theme for me this year,” Buehler says of his changeup. Fulmer and Buehler join infielder Dansby Swanson as Commodores likely to be selected in the top half of the first round.
  • In a chat at FanGraphs, McDaniel says that Fulmer to the Red Sox at No. 7 overall is a “rumor that won’t go away.” As noted this weekend, Red Sox GM Ben Cherington watched Fulmer and Swanson on Friday. McDaniel gives Fulmer a 65-70 percent chance of sticking as a starter in the Majors, though he notes in his draft rankings that he likes Fulmer more than most — at 5-foot-11, Fulmer is relatively small for a top-end starting pitcher, and he has a higher-effort delivery.

McDaniel On The June Draft

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Here’s the latest on the 2015 draft, via a massive post from FanGraphs’ Kiley McDaniel.

  • McDaniel notes that there isn’t much top-level talent in this draft (an opinion shared by many analysts), and says that the industry is unclear what the Diamondbacks will do with, or even how they’re thinking about, the first pick in the draft.
  • The Astros, who have the second overall pick, appear to be focused on high school shortstop Brendan Rodgers, UC-Santa Barbara pitcher Dillon Tate, and Vanderbilt infielder Dansby Swanson, who McDaniel ranks the top three prospects in the draft.
  • Red Sox GM Ben Cherington was seen on ESPNU last night watching Swanson and Vanderbilt pitcher Carson Fulmer. The Red Sox pick seventh. They’ve also been connected to LSU shortstop Alex Bregman. McDaniel ranks Bregman the fourth-best prospect in the draft, Fulmer the seventh.
  • Since the draft lacks much top talent, one possibility is that many teams will draft second-round-type players in the first round and save money against their bonus pools for later picks in the draft.
  • McDaniel ranks Astros unsigned 2014 No. 1 pick Brady Aiken the No. 24 prospect in the draft, noting that many in the industry feel that Aiken’s arm issues go beyond Tommy John surgery and that he could have further injury problems later in his career.

MLB Releases Draft Bonus Slots

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The league has informed teams of the draft bonus slot allocations that will apply to this year’s amateur draft, as Baseball America reports. With the first overall pick, the Diamondbacks will have just over $8.6MM to spend (or divert to other picks).

2015 draft pools

That top choice was given a shade over $7.9MM in value last year. The Astros had agreed to a $6.5MM deal with first overall pick Brady Aiken before a controversial dispute over his physical left that agreement unconsummated. Houston would have been in line to distribute that $1.4MM in savings to other top picks. Particularly with a reportedly weak top of this year’s class, Arizona could well look to do something similar.

The first-round values are presented at right. Obviously, every team started with a first-round pick but not every one ended the winter with one still in its bag due to the signing of qualifying offer-bound free agents. And the Astros — like the Blue Jays last year — have an extra first-rounder (in this case, the second overall pick) for failing to sign the prior year’s draft choice.

Values of the individual picks are, of course, somewhat less important than are the overall spending pools across all picks, which BA updates here. While Arizona has the largest single pick allocation, Houston’s extra first-round choice gives it the greatest overall pool. Indeed, the D’Backs are not even the team with the second-highest total dollars to spend. The Rockies, which also hold the 27th overall choice, hold that distinction.

The reason that Colorado is able to leapfrog their division rival in net draft muscle is, of course, due to the remainder of the first round choices, listed at right. Michael Cuddyer’s surprising decision to turn down the team’s qualifying offer and sign with the Mets left a highly valuable draft slot in  his former club’s hands.

2015 draft pools2

Among these “sandwich” round picks, the first ten (number 27-36) go to teams that lost qualifying offer-declining free agents. The remainder are compensation choices awarded to lower-revenue teams through a lottery.

If you are interested in reviewing all the other bonus limits applicable to the first ten rounds of the summer’s draft, be sure to check out the original link listed at the top of this post. BA has listed the values for each of the draft’s first 315 picks.

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