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2017 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings

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Most players have about 30 remaining regular season games to add to their free agent bona fides.  Postseason heroics don’t always change a free agent’s valuation, as Daniel Murphy can attest.  Still, the majority of players on this list will see their seasons extend into the playoffs, providing a chance to shine on baseball’s biggest stage.  The players below are ranked on their expected earning power in free agency.  To view the full list of 2016-17 MLB free agents, click  here.

1.  Yoenis Cespedes.  Cespedes aggravated his quad in early August, but returned to close out the month with five home runs in 11 games.  He’s showing more power than ever and has even started drawing walks.  Cespedes, who turns 31 in October, told reporters recently he’d like to spend the rest of his career with the Mets, but he has not made a decision about his opt-out clause.  Barring a large extension with the Mets, it is a virtual lock Cespedes opts out of the remaining two years and $47.5MM left on his contract in search of a bigger commitment.

2.  Aroldis Chapman.  Aside from a laborious save last night at Wrigley, Chapman had a fine month for the Cubs.  He appears in line to score a record contract for a reliever this winter.

3.  Kenley Jansen.  Jansen had a few rare blips in August, but he’s still right there with Chapman as one of the game’s dominant ninth inning forces.  Chapman, Jansen, and Mark Melancon are poised to take the free agent relief market to new heights in a few months.  Of the three, only Jansen will be subject to a qualifying offer, if that system remains in place.

4.  Edwin Encarnacion.  Encarnacion had another fine month with the bat, slugging eight more home runs to bring his total to 36.  His career-high of 42 bombs is within reach.  Unfortunately, Encarnacion has drawn attention for a lawsuit in which a woman alleges he knowingly infected her with sexually transmitted diseases in February.  Any team considering signing Encarnacion this offseason is going to have questions and concerns about this situation.

5.  Wilson Ramos.  Ramos had a respectable August, with his career-best home run total climbing to 20.  Among full-time catchers, that mark ties him for second in all of baseball.  Ramos celebrated his 29th birthday in August, and his youth opens up the possibility of a five-year deal in free agency.  If the bidding results in a contract near Russell Martin’s five-year, $82MM pact, Ramos could be the second-biggest earner among all free agents.  For more on Ramos’ market, check out Jeff Todd’s Free Agent Stock Watch.

6.  Ian Desmond.  Desmond hit a bump in the road in August, batting just .241/.276/.276 in 123 plate appearances for the Rangers.  He’s no longer the free agent WAR leader.  Desmond’s overall resurgent campaign still justifies a four-year deal, with strong contributions in hitting, baserunning, and defense.

7.  Justin Turner.  At 4.3 WAR, Turner is the most valuable free agent currently.  The 31-year-old has combined his typical above average third base defense with newfound power at the plate.  Turner’s 24 home runs marks a career high, though his batting average has slipped from the lofty heights of 2014-15.  MLBTR’s Jeff Todd dissected Turner’s season and market position at length in this recent Free Agent Stock Watch.

8.  Mark Trumbo.  Trumbo leads all of MLB with 40 home runs, after adding ten more in August.  It was an all or nothing month for the 30-year-old right-handed slugger, who hit .181/.280/.500 in 107 plate appearances.  Oddly, Trumbo has struggled against left-handed pitching this year, after hitting .272/.328/.542 off southpaws from 2013-15.  His poor defensive season is less of a surprise.  Unlike a player like Desmond, Trumbo can only help a team in one area: power.  I still think he has a reasonable chance at a four-year deal, though about 58% of MLBTR readers don’t think he’ll get one.

9.  Jose Bautista.  Bautista, 35, missed a chunk of August due to a knee sprain.  While his offensive rate stats are down, the bigger concern is his health and defense moving forward.  In the aforementioned survey, less than 13% of MLBTR readers think Bautista will get a four-year deal this winter.  I agree with that assessment.

10.  Josh Reddick.  Reddick held the third spot on this list a month ago.  Since being traded to the Dodgers, he’s hitting just .161/.223/.172 in 94 plate appearances.  One month may not torpedo his free agent value entirely, and he still has September and October to build it back up.  MLBTR’s writing team has debated whether Reddick can still land a four-year deal, with Jeff Todd’s Nick Markakis comp suggesting it’s possible.  The ever-pessimistic MLBTR readership gives only a 26% chance of a four-year deal for Reddick.  If they’re correct, he won’t hold a spot in the top ten.

An honorable mention goes to Mets second baseman Neil Walker, who held the tenth spot on this list until news broke that he’s likely to undergo season-ending back surgery.  I would not rule out a four-year deal for Walker, who set a career-high of 3.8 WAR in just 113 games.  Others who are not too far from cracking the top ten: Dexter Fowler, Michael Saunders, and Mark Melancon.  The market will also feature power bats Mike Napoli, Brandon Moss, and Carlos Beltran, great speed and baserunning in Rajai Davis, and high contact hitter Martin Prado.

You may have noticed the complete lack of starting pitchers mentioned.  The free agent market for starting pitching looks historically bleak this winter, with Jeremy Hellickson, Ivan Nova, and Rich Hill as the top-ranked arms.

Minor MLB Transactions: 9/1/16

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Catching up on a couple of minor moves from yesterday and tracking additional minor transactions from today…

  • The Rangers acquired veteran minor league catcher Nevin Ashley from the Mets last night in exchange for cash, the team announced. Ashley, 32, played in a dozen games for the Brewers last season, which represents his lone season with MLB experience. He’s logged parts of seven seasons at the Triple-A level since being drafted in the sixth round by the (Devil) Rays back in 2006 and has compiled a .256/.341/.391 batting line at that level while also halting 35 percent of stolen base attempts made against him.
  • The Reds announced yesterday that right-hander A.J. Morris has been activated from the 60-day disabled list and outrighted to Triple-A Louisville. The 29-year-old made his Major League debut for Cincinnati this season and threw 10 innings at the big league level before a shoulder strain landed him on the disabled list. Morris, a former fourth-round pick by the Nationals (2009), has a career 3.36 ERA with 7.3 K/9 against 2.4 BB/9 in 158 innings at the Triple-A level and a lifetime 3.33 ERA in parts of seven minor league seasons between the Nats, Cubs, Pirates and Reds.

AL Central Notes: Sale, Quintana, Davis, Wang, Santana

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Over the weekend, Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago reported that the Red Sox weren’t willing to include Jackie Bradley in a trade for either Chris Sale or Jose Quintana, and this morning, Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports adds to that a bit. “If they didn’t get Jackie Bradley, there was no way they were doing the deal,” a person familiar with the talks told Heyman in reference to the White Sox. While there’s been plenty of speculation (and optimism from fans of other teams) that the Pale Hose could market one of their two ace-caliber lefties this winter, Heyman spoke to multiple people that indicated owner Jerry Reinsdorf still has little to no interest in parting with either Sale or Quintana, as his primary focus is putting a winner on the field right now. Sale, 28 next March, is controllable from 2017-2019 season for $38MM, while Quintana, who turns 28 in January, is owed $36.85MM from 2017-20.

More notes from the division…

  • The Royals are planning to activate All-Star closer Wade Davis from the disabled list on Friday, writes Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star. Davis might’ve been activated prior to Wednesday’s contest, he notes, but a rainout at Triple-A earlier this week delayed his final rehab appearance and, thus, his return to the active roster. Davis has been out since July 31 due to a forearm strain, and the Royals’ fortunes have certainly changed since that injury. At the time of Davis’ placement on the disabled list, he was an oft-rumored trade candidate for a Royals team that had fallen quite a ways out of contention in the American League Central and in the AL Wild Card hunt. However, despite lacking one of the game’s best relievers for more than a month, Kansas City has gone 20-8 since Davis was placed on the disabled list. They’re now 6.5 games back in the division and just three games out of the second Wild Card spot in the AL.
  • While Davis is returning, the Royals will lose right-hander Chien-Ming Wang to the disabled list, Dodd notes within that same piece. Wang is being placed on the 15-day DL due to tendinitis in his right biceps. While Wang’s numbers don’t stand out (4.22 ERA, 5.1 K/9, 3.0 BB/9), he’s yielded just two runs in his past 11 innings while working in a multi-inning role. Kansas City is hopeful that he’ll be able to return in the minimum 15 days, though expanded September rosters give Kansas City the luxury of taking things a bit slowly with his recovery.
  • Danny Santana’s season is over, as the Twins utilityman has suffered a Grade 2 sprain of the AC joint in his left shoulder and will require four to six weeks to recover from the injury, writes Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. As Berardino notes, Santana once rated as one of Minnesota’s top 10 to 15 prospects, but his struggles over the past two seasons now leave his future with the team in doubt. Santana, 25, burst onto the scene in 2014 with a .319/.353/.472 slash in 101 games, but his production was largely propped up by a BABIP north of .400. Regression was easy to project thanks to that bloated BABIP, but he’s fallen farther than even pessimistic forecasts might’ve indicated. Over the past two seasons, the switch-hitter has slashed just .227/.259/.308 in 525 plate appearances. Santana is out of minor league options, so he’ll have to remain on the active roster or be exposed to waivers before he’s eligible to be sent outright to the minors.

Dodgers Approached D-Backs About Zack Greinke Trade

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The Dodgers approached the division-rival Diamondbacks about a potential Zack Greinke trade after Greinke cleared revocable trade waivers earlier this month, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Rosenthal’s report is the first mention of the fact that Greinke cleared waivers, although the fact that he did so is in no way surprising. Greinke’s six-year, $206.5MM contract comes with a staggering $34.4MM annual salary, and he’s owed $172.5MM from 2017-21. Talented as he may be, the vast majority of teams wouldn’t consider doling out that type of money for any pitcher, let alone one whose contract runs through his age-37 season.

Talks between the Dodgers and D-backs, according to Rosenthal, didn’t progress very far, and a trade isn’t likely to be revisited this season, as Greinke would no longer be eligible for a new team’s postseason roster now that it is officially Sept. 1 on the east coast. However, Rosenthal suggests that the two sides could revisit talks this winter, adding that the Diamondbacks may become increasingly willing to shed some payroll after a disappointing season that is currently on pace to yield the worst average attendance in franchise history.

Of course, there are plenty of variables that will factor into whether the D-backs are able to line up on a Greinke deal with the Dodgers or with any other club. First and foremost, it’ll depend on who is calling the shots atop Arizona’s baseball operations department. Chief baseball officer Tony La Russa and GM Dave Stewart signed Greinke to his record-setting deal (with owner Ken Kendrick’s approval), but the job security of both of men has been called into question recently due to the D-backs’ wildly disappointing season. A new GM or president of baseball operations could potentially be more inclined to deal Greinke than the incumbent duo.

Beyond that, Greinke’s performance in the 2016 season hasn’t lined up with the dominant results in Los Angeles that elevated his stock to the point that enabled him to demand such a staggering price. While Greinke turned in a pristine 2.30 ERA with 8.3 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 in 602 2/3 innings over the life of his three-year Dodgers career, he’s pitched to a 4.17 earned run average and missed more than a month due to an oblique injury in his inaugural season with the D-backs. He’s seen incremental decreases in his strikeout and ground-ball rates, while his walk rate has elevated a bit. ERA estimators feel that he’s been better than that 4.17 mark would indicate, but it’d be unwise to ever expect Greinke to replicate his astounding 2015 campaign (1.66 ERA in 222 2/3 innings). Even if a team were to believe that Greinke’s true talent was that of a pitcher who can sustain an ERA in the 2.50 to 3.00 range — and there presumably are such teams — the D-backs would probably still have to include significant financial assistance in order to bring Greinke’s salary down to a more palatable price point.

On top of that, Greinke has a 15-team no-trade clause, giving him some considerable power over a theoretical effort to trade him. While he might welcome a chance to return to the Dodgers or a different contending club, there’s no guarantee that’d be the case. The odds of the D-backs finding an interested trading partner to which Greinke would not or could not block a deal that had the financial means to absorb the majority of an enormous contract and still believed him capable of pitching like a top-tier starter are long. That’s only half of the equation. If the D-backs were to get serious about trading Greinke and could find a willing partner, they’d still have to try to pry prospect value away from the interested team. And, the greater the ask from Arizona, the more of Greinke’s contract a trading partner would ask the D-backs to cover. Finding that balance point would be extremely difficult.

Rosenthal writes that the Dodgers will probably circle back to these talks down the line, and that certainly seems plausible, especially if there is a regime change in the Arizona front office. But, the number of hurdles that stand between the idea of this trade and the actual fruition of the trade is probably too great to realistically expect a deal to ever materialize.

Mets Acquire Fernando Salas

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The Mets announced that they have acquired right-handed reliever Fernando Salas from the Angels in exchange for minor league right-hander Erik Manoah. Justin Ruggiano has been moved to the 60-day disabled list to make room for Salas on the 40-man roster.

Fernando Salas

Salas, 31, has pitched to a 4.47 ERA with 7.2 K/9, 3.0 BB/9 and a 41.6 percent ground-ball rate in 56 1/3 innings of relief for the Angels this season. A free agent at season’s end, he represents a pure rental for the Mets, but a fairly affordable one, as he’s earning $2.4MM in his final season of arbitration eligibility. Salas has $419K of that sum remaining on his salary through season’s end. While his numbers certainly aren’t eye-catching, it’s worth noting that Salas has largely righted the ship after a dreadful month of June and has pitched quite well since early July. While the endpoint here is highly arbitrary in nature, Salas has a 2.60 ERA with an 18-to-7 K/BB ratio and a 48 percent ground-ball rate in his past 17 1/3 innings out of manager Mike Scisoscia’s bullpen.

With the Mets, Salas figures to work primarily in the seventh inning, as the eighth inning is typically the property of resurgent setup man Addison Reed, while the Mets boast one of baseball’s best closers in the form of right-hander Jeurys Familia. By acquiring Salas tonight, the Mets have ensured that he can be a part of the club’s roster in the event that they make it to the postseason. The deadline for newly acquired players to receive postseason eligibility is midnight EST.

Manoah, 20, was the Mets’ 13th-round pick in the 2014 draft. The Miami-area prep product hasn’t performed particularly well in his pro career to date, pitching to an ERA north of 5.00 in both 2015 and 2016. However, he has shown a penchant for missing bats, racking up 63 strikeouts in 62 innings out of the rotation for the Mets’ short-season Class-A affiliate this year, and he also keeps the ball on the ground quite well, as evidenced by a 50 percent ground-ball rate.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Red Sox Promote Yoan Moncada

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The Red Sox announced on Wednesday evening that they will promote top prospect Yoan Moncada to the Major Leagues on Friday.

The 21-year-old Moncada is widely regarded as one of the top prospects in all of baseball, if not the top prospect. The switch-hitter was one of the most highly sought after international free agents in history when he left Cuba last year, prompting the Red Sox to agree to a $31.5MM bonus — far and away the largest ever for a player that is characterized by an amateur under Major League Baseball’s international prospect rulings. That bonus came with a 100 percent luxury tax, meaning that the Red Sox effectively spent $63MM simply to get Moncada into their farm system. That figure doesn’t account for any of the future salaries that Moncada will begin to earn as he works his way toward arbitration, but the early returns look to have been worth it for Boston.

In 486 plate appearances between Class-A Advanced and Double-A this season, Moncada is batting a scintillating .298/.411/.518 with 15 home runs, 31 doubles, six triples and 45 stolen bases (in 57 attempts). While the majority of his time in the minors has been spent as a second baseman, he recently began seeing some time at the hot corner in Double-A Portland, which is where he figures to fit into the Red Sox’ short- and long-term plans, thanks to the presence of franchise cornerstone Dustin Pedroia at second base.

Moncada ranked No. 1 on the midseason top prospect lists of both Baseball America and MLB.com, while Baseball Prospectus ranked him second and ESPN’s Keith Law rated him fifth (though it’s worth noting that three of the players ahead of Moncada on Law’s Top 50 are now in the Majors).

Orioles Acquire Michael Bourn

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The Orioles announced tonight that they have acquired center fielder Michael Bourn from the Diamondbacks in exchange for minor league outfielder Jason Heinrich. To make room for Bourn on the 40-man roster, Baltimore has transferred outfielder Joey Rickard to the 60-day disabled list.

Michael Bourn

The 33-year-old Bourn becomes the second piece of outfield depth added by Baltimore today, as the O’s also picked up center fielder Drew Stubbs when they claimed him off release waivers from the Rangers. Bourn hasn’t been overly productive on the season overall in Arizona, but he’s had some productive stretches and has been swinging a hot bat as of late. The speedster is hitting .261/.307/.362 in 389 plate appearances with Arizona this season, but his .313/.345/.434 slash and five stolen bases over his past 20 games are more encouraging than his cumulative season stats.

With rosters set to expand tomorrow, Bourn will give the O’s a late-inning option to bring some speed off the bench and perhaps to upgrade the outfield defense over Mark Trumbo or Hyun Soo Kim, neither of whom grades out anywhere close to average with the glove. At 33 years of age and with a recent history of hamstring issues, Bourn isn’t the premium defender and elite baserunner that he once was, but he’s nonetheless graded out as roughly average in center field, per Ultimate Zone Rating, and four runs above average in the eyes of Defensive Runs Saved. As such, he should be a sizable upgrade in terms of run prevention if and when manager Buck Showalter inserts him into the mix late in games with slim leads.

Heinrich, 20, was the Orioles’ fifth-round pick in the 2015 draft. The Florida high school product and Alaska native has spent the season with Baltimore’s Low-A affiliate, batting .231/.301/.347 in 163 plate appearances and is a .251/.331/.365 hitter in a total of 341 plate appearances since being drafted last year. Heading into last year’s draft, Baseball America rated Heinrich as the No. 188 prospect available, writing that the right-handed hitter stood out for his plus raw power to the pull side and impressive bat speed. He profiles as either a right fielder or a first baseman in the long term, per BA.

FOX’s Ken Rosenthal first reported earlier this afternoon that the Orioles were trying to acquire Bourn, while USA Today’s Bob Nightengale called the deal close and FanRag’s Jon Heyman said the two sides had a principle agreement with only final details to be worked out.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Coco Crisp’s 2017 Option Won’t Vest

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Indians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti tells Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer that he had an honest, upfront discussion with Coco Crisp prior to yesterday’s trade to explain that he wouldn’t receive enough playing time in Cleveland for his option to vest if the deal went through.

“We were pretty candid with Coco about that,” said Antonetti. “…The way he’ll likely be used here and the way he’ll integrate into our team, he won’t get enough plate appearances or games to have that vest. Coco was good with that, he understood.”

Crisp would’ve needed to appear in a hefty 28 of the Indians’ 31 remaining games or to tally another 116 plate appearances (3.74 per game) for the option to vest, so it never seemed all that likely that he’d see next year’s $13MM salary automatically trigger. But, Crisp had publicly expressed some displeasure over the fact that he was losing playing time in Oakland, likely to prevent the option from triggering, so Antonetti’s candor was probably appreciated by the veteran outfielder.

Cleveland, of course, could technically still pick up the $13MM option, but it seems far likelier that they’ll elect to pay Crisp a $750K buyout instead. The 36-year-old switch-hitter was a plus contributor at the plate with Oakland from 2010-14, batting .261/.329/.406 in 558 games. However, he’s struggled over the past two seasons, missing the majority of the 2015 campaign with a neck injury and hitting .234/.299/.399 in 434 plate appearances this season. He’s still performing fairly well as a left-handed hitter, though, as he’s batted .239/.307/.419 from that side of the dish. That type of production will come in handy should the Indians hold onto their division lead and make it to the postseason, as Abraham Almonte will not be eligible for the playoffs due the 80-game suspension he served for a failed PED test earlier this year. That, according to Antonetti, was a significant factor in the team’s thinking when deciding to make the trade.

Crisp, then, will have occasional at-bats in the month of August and what both he and the Indians will hope to be a substantial number of postseason at-bats that he can use to boost some of his free agent stock. He figures to enter into a left-field market that is headlined by Yoenis Cespedes and also features Michael Saunders, Ian Desmond (depending on how he markets himself this winter) and Angel Pagan, among others.

Dodgers Likely To Pull Back Yasiel Puig From Waivers

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6:20pm: Heyman clarifies that the deadline to reach a Puig trade is technically tomorrow afternoon, but a trade is “very unlikely” at this juncture (Twitter link). FOX’s Ken Rosenthal explains that if any trade is going to happen, it’d have to be wrapped up before midnight EST tonight, as the Dodgers are only interested in moving Puig for a player that could help their big league roster in this year’s playoffs (links to Twitter). At least three teams tried to claim Puig, writes Heyman, suggesting that there will be a market for him in the offseason.

1:23pm: The Dodgers will pull back outfielder Yasiel Puig after he was claimed on revocable waivers, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). His rights had been claimed by an unknown organization, which left Los Angeles with the ability either to negotiate a trade, allow that team to assume the contract, or instead revoke the claim and retain Puig’s rights.

L.A. was never expected to reach a deal involving Puig this month, and ESPN.com’s Jim Bowden confirmed earlier today that no swap was likely (via Twitter). Los Angeles will instead reconsider a deal in the winter, though there is at least some reason to believe that Puig could play a role at the major league level down the stretch.

The organization that won the waiver claim on Puig was primarily looking to play a “blocking” role rather than trying to strike a deal, per Bowden’s report. Of course, working out a swap for the talented but questionably reliable 25-year-old never figured to be easy.

If a team does ultimately make a move for Puig, he’ll represent a fascinating upside play. The overall package includes a strong established ceiling, a recent downturn, off-field issues, and three years of control at reasonable but still substantial rates.

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