Looking For A Match In A Julio Teheran Trade
The Braves entered the season amid a full rebuild, so it’s hardly a surprise that they’ve shown a willingness to ship away veterans during their National League-worst 16-37 start. Two months into the season, Atlanta has already moved a pair of right-handers, starter Jhoulys Chacin and reliever Jason Grilli, for younger players. The club is understandably less eager to trade its premier major league asset, fellow righty Julio Teheran, as general manager John Coppolella has stated multiple times since last weekend.
On the possibility of dealing the 25-year-old Teheran, Coppolella told FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal, “The days of us trading players like Teheran for prospects are over. We need to get better at the major league level. We would have to be overwhelmed to move Teheran.”
Coppollela then informed Jon Heyman of Today’s Knuckleball that he expects Teheran to remain with the Braves for “a long time.”
Teheran is indeed slated to stay in Atlanta for the foreseeable future, having agreed to a pact in 2014 that could keep him there through the 2020 season. That team-friendly contract is undoubtedly a significant part of Teheran’s allure to the Braves and the rest of the league. Teheran’s run prevention (3.37 ERA in 701 2/3 innings) and durability (three straight 30-start seasons) only add to his appeal. Skeptics would point to his less shiny ERA estimators (3.88 FIP, 3.94 xFIP and 3.86 SIERA), mediocre 2015 campaign, this year’s velocity drop and the fact that he has been prone to hard contact as reasons for concern, however.
From a contractual standpoint, Teheran is currently on a relatively meager $3.3MM salary and has a chance to rake in another $37.3MM, including a $12MM club option, over the final four years of his deal. Teheran, therefore, doesn’t need to be particularly dominant to live up to the contract. Thanks to his strong start this season (68 1/3 innings with a 2.77 ERA, 8.17 K/9 and 2.63 BB/9), FanGraphs already values Teheran’s 2016 contributions at $8.4MM. And thanks to both Teheran’s first two months and the weak-looking class of upcoming free agent starters, now might be an opportune time for the Braves to at least consider moving him.
In order for the Braves to actually sell Teheran, Coppolella told Rosenthal he would need a major league hitter of comparable age and quality in return. The problem, if you want to call it that, is such a trade could be a pipe dream for Atlanta. For one, pitchers are more susceptible to injuries than position players, so teams might not be willing to take the risk. Secondly, contending clubs with their eyes on Teheran would be creating a hole just to patch another if they were to swap a hitter for him.
The Red Sox, Dodgers, Tigers and Marlins are among playoff hopefuls who could explore the summer market for starters, and their similar-to-Teheran position players include third baseman Travis Shaw, outfielder Yasiel Puig, third bagger Nick Castellanos and center fielder Marcell Ozuna. It’s doubtful, however, that any of them will be on the move.
Shaw has done nothing but produce since debuting in the majors last season, and he appears primed to man the hot corner in Boston until at least the beginning of the distant Rafael Devers era. Puig has unexpectedly performed like merely an average player since last season, but the Dodgers still seem to need him more than they need another starter. Castellanos has been one of the majors’ top hitters this year, and the Tigers don’t have a replacement for him at the big league level – nor do they have imminent help coming from their farm system. Ozuna has not only been the Marlins’ most valuable outfielder this year (no small feat with Giancarlo Stanton and Christian Yelich alongside him), but he’s also their best defensive option in center.
The Red Sox were willing to move 24-year-old catcher/outfielder Blake Swihart for a No. 2-type starter as of last month, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reported, but Swihart alone isn’t definitively worth Teheran. The Braves were at least enamored of Cubs outfielder Jorge Soler in the past, Gordon Wittenmeyer of the Chicago Sun-Times wrote in October, though Chicago subsequently added John Lackey in free agency. With Lackey complementing Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks and Jason Hammel, the Cubs have arguably the most well-rounded rotation in the league from one to five (though they’re still reportedly seeking depth). Further, they probably aren’t keen on the idea of parting with outfield depth in the wake of Kyle Schwarber‘s season-ending injury. There’s also the fact that Soler has underwhelmed since bursting on the scene in 2014 with a fantastic 24-game showing.
With no clear fit mentioned above, it’s fair to wonder what the prospect cutoff is for the John Hart- and Coppolella-led Braves. Would the team really scoff at sending Teheran to, say, the pitching-needy Rangers in a package for one of their excellent 22-year-old prospects, power-hitting, cannon-armed third baseman Joey Gallo or outfielder Lewis Brinson? The Pirates also have rotation issues — granted, they have in-house reinforcements on the way in Jameson Taillon, Tyler Glasnow and perhaps Chad Kuhl — and their stellar outfield trio of Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco looks primed to block the big league path of 21-year-old Austin Meadows. Even if the Braves were receptive to sending away Teheran in a package for any of those players, there’s obviously no guarantee the youngsters’ current organizations would be open to it. All three entered the season among Baseball America’s top 25 prospects, after all (Gallo 10th, Brinson 16th and Meadows 22nd), to cite one reputable outlet’s list.
If it truly takes an overwhelming haul for Atlanta to deal Teheran, then it’s fair to expect he won’t follow Shelby Miller out of town. The Diamondbacks drew almost universal criticism from the moment they traded Dansby Swanson, Ender Inciarte and Aaron Blair for Miller during the winter, and that deal has so far blown up in Arizona’s face. The Braves are highly unlikely to net a comparable package for Teheran – nor will it be easy to land an accomplished, in-his-prime big league hitter in return – so he’s a good bet to continue in Atlanta if Coppolella’s public statements are how he actually feels. Of course, given Teheran’s age, performance and contract, the Braves’ backs aren’t against the wall in this case. Barring injury, simply keeping him wouldn’t qualify as a disastrous decision, and Coppolella appears content to do just that.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
NL Notes: Turner, Giants OF, Mets 3B, Peralta, Wong, Jenkins
Nationals infielder Trea Turner had an impressive season debut today, but the plan is for him to return to Triple-A once Ryan Zimmerman is back from paternity leave, manager Dusty Baker told reporters including MLB.com’s Jamal Collier (Twitter link). That’s not to say that he won’t play a more significant role later in the year, of course. Danny Espinosa and Stephen Drew have been solid defensively but have combined for an anemic 65 wRC+ on the year.
Here’s more from the National League:
- With the news that Hunter Pence will miss two months or more, the Giants are facing some uncertainty in the corner outfield. While the organization sees some “attractive options externally,” GM Bobby Evans tells Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter), it has no intentions of plunking down a high price for a temporary fill-in (let alone a long-term piece).
- The Mets‘ plans at third base appear to be somewhat up in the air with David Wright out of action. Per MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo, via Twitter, the club will “explore” the market for trade candidates, but is also glad to give Wilmer Flores the majority of the time at present. New York could find some options via trade, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explained earlier today, but it’s fair to wonder whether any of the presently-available players would represent an upgrade over Flores.
- Cadinals GM John Mozeliak says that Jhonny Peralta will take over primary duties at third base when he returns in the coming days, Luke Schnake of 101ESPN reports. The club will keep breakout rookie Aledmys Diaz at short while shifting veteran Matt Carpenter to second. That raises yet more questions about the struggling Kolten Wong. While Mozeliak wouldn’t say whether he could be optioned to Triple-A, he did note that “overall this game is about performance” while adding that “everything has to be on the table when considering how to improve.”
- Braves right-handed pitching prospect Tyrell Jenkins will move to the bullpen at Triple-A Gwinnett, as David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports. Manager Brian Snitker says the decision was made to “get him a different look,” not out of any displeasure with his work in the rotation. Jenkins, who came to Atlanta along with Shelby Miller in exchange for Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden, has worked to a 2.97 ERA with 6.2 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 over 57 2/3 innings on the year.
Dodgers Place Yasiel Puig On 15-Day DL
The Dodgers have placed outfielder Yasiel Puig on the 15-day disabled list with a left hamstring strain, per a team announcement (via Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register, on Twitter). Scott Van Slyke has returned from his own DL stint to join the club in Puig’s stead.
It has been a trying year for the 25-year-old. Hopes were that he’d return to the stellar play he showed over 2013-14, but Puig has fallen shy even of the reduced version of himself that was on display last season.
Over his first 198 plate appearances, he’s compiled a meager .237/.283/.360 batting line with a handful of home runs and four steals. On the positive side, defensive metrics have been quite high on his work in right field, representing a turnaround in that regard.
It doesn’t appear that the injury is a serious one, as the club waited until the last minute to decide on the DL placement. But this is hardly the first time that Puig has been felled by this particular injury, increasing the level of concern. If there’s a silver lining, it could be that Puig may end up with a chance at a rehab stint to sort out some of his issues at the plate.
Los Angeles does not figure to go looking outside the organization for help — unless, perhaps, it turns into a much longer absence than is expected. The team already cut loose Alex Guerrero recently because of its stock of outfielders, and the return of Van Slyke further bolsters a deep unit.
Injury Notes: Hill, Gallardo, Wheeler, d’Arnaud, Simmons, Sano
There’s a lengthy list of names whose injury situations warrant mention tonight:
- Rich Hill will miss his next scheduled start for the Athletics, as MLB.com’s Jane Lee reports. He’s dealing with groin soreness, and while that doesn’t appear to be a major concern, manager Bob Melvin made clear that the team “want[s] to make sure he is as close to 100 percent as he can be” before putting him back on the MLB bump. Hill is both a key to Oakland’s hopes and a top potential trade chip, but he’s already recorded more major league innings this season than in any single campaign since 2007.
- The Orioles may finally welcome back righty Yovani Gallardo late next week, as Eduardo Encina of the Baltimore Sun reports on Twitter. Baltimore hopes that he’ll be ready for activation after his next Triple-A rehab start on Tuesday, per skipper Buck Showalter. Headed in the other direction is reliever Darren O’Day, who is expected to miss something close to the minimum after hitting the 15-day DL with a hamstring strain.
- The Mets have updated timetables for two important young players of their own, as Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com reports (here and here). Righty Zack Wheeler is not expected back until mid-July at this point. That’s a few weeks later than had been expected, but he is said to be progressing as hoped and there certainly isn’t much of a rush from the team’s perspective. The catching position is one where New York could use some help, though, and it’s certainly promising to hear that Travis d’Arnaud is ready to begin a rehab assignment this weekend. That would put him on track to return to the majors within the twenty-day period allowed for position-player rehab stints.
- Likewise, Angels shortstop Andrelton Simmons is “close” to undertaking his own minor league assignment, as Mike Scioscia tells reporters including MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez (via Twitter). The basement-dwelling Halos badly need Simmons not only to return, but to pick up his pace at the plate when he does.
- Padres righty Cesar Vargas has been diagnosed with a flexor strain, per Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune (Twitter link). He won’t even get another check-up for three weeks, so it certainly seems that a fairly lengthy absence is to be expected.
- Miguel Sano of the Twins has a moderate hamstring strain that will keep him out for longer than the 15-day minimum, per LaVelle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune (via Twitter). While Minnesota’s hopes for the present season appear to have all but evaporated, Sano remains both a critical future piece and a possible factor in the team’s deadline plans. Third baseman Trevor Plouffe looks like a plausible trade piece, which could lead the way to a return to the hot corner for Sano.
- Yankees first baseman Mark Teixeira left today’s action with right knee pain, as Chad Jennings of the LoHud Yankees blog reports. He’s headed for an MRI to get a clearer idea of the issue. Teixeira was already dealing with a neck ailment, so the health questions continue to compile for the veteran. If a DL stint is required, New York could conceivably dip into its minor league system for Chris Parmelee or Nick Swisher — either of whom would require a 40-man spot. It doesn’t help that catcher (and occasional fill-in first baseman) Brian McCann is day-to-day with some elbow pain, as Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News tweets.
- Three-time Tommy John surgery recipient Jonny Venters is set to be activated by the Rays‘ High-A affiliate on Saturday, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets. The 31-year-old was once one an electric reliever for the Braves, but he last pitched professionally way back in 2012.
Minor MLB Transactions: 6/3/16
Here are the most notable minor transactions from the past day…
- Southpaw Andy Oliver has opted out of his contract with the Orioles, as Rich Dubroff of CSNmidatlantic.com tweets. The 28-year-old has received seven major league starts, all coming in 2010-11 with the Tigers. Over 34 2/3 frames at Triple-A Norfolk this year, Oliver had worked to a 2.08 ERA with 8.8 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9. That represents a big step forward for the former top prospect, who has issued 5.7 free passes per nine innings over his seven seasons in the minors.
- The Braves have acquired left-hander Jed Bradley from the Brewers in exchange for a player to be named later or cash considerations, the Brewers announced. Bradley, soon to turn 26, was the 15th overall pick in the 2011 draft but has never seen his career take off in the minors. He posted a 5.83 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A in 2015 and has struggled to a 6.20 ERA in 24 2/3 innings of work at the Double-A level this season. The Georgia Tech product was one of the game’s top 100 prospects heading into the 2012 season (per Baseball America and MLB.com), but it’s been quite some time since he’s been held in high regard as a prospect.
- The Twins inked outfielder Logan Schafer to a minor league contract, per MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger (on Twitter). Schafer, not to be confused with former Twins outfielder Jordan Schafer (no relation), has spent his entire career prior to this season in the Brewers organization. He’s a lifetime .281/.338/.431 hitter in 277 games at the Triple-A level, but he’s struggled to a .212/.286/.319 batting line in 646 big league plate appearances. The 29-year-old recently took to the independent circuit after being cut loose by the Nationals in Spring Training and enjoyed a successful 17-game stint with the Atlantic League’s Lancaster BarnStormers. He’s already reported to Triple-A Rochester and will provide Minnesota with some organizational depth in the outfield, where he can play all three positions.
- Right-hander Deolis Guerra was outrighted to Triple-A Salt Lake by the Angels after clearing waivers, according to Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com (on Twitter). The 27-year-old Guerra yielded four runs in 5 1/3 innings of relief for the Halos before being designated for assignment. Guerra doesn’t have much of a track record in the Majors, but he’s been dominant at the Triple-A level from 2015-16 between the Halos and Pirates, pitching to a 1.08 ERA in 41 2/3 innings of relief.
- Veteran left-hander Brian Duensing‘s contract was selected by the Orioles yesterday, and he made his Baltimore debut last night, though the two runs he surrendered in an inning of work probably weren’t how he’d hoped to make his first impression. Duensing, 33, posted a 3.84 ERA in 190 innings of relief from 2013-15 with the Twins upon being moved to the bullpen on a full-time basis, but his strikeout rate fell off a cliff in his final season with Minnesota. He signed a minor league deal with Kansas City this winter but opted out of the deal after a strong showing with their Triple-A affiliate and quickly signed with Baltimore. With Brian Matusz out of the picture, Duensing could have a chance to lock down a spot as a lefty specialist in the Baltimore ‘pen.
- The Phillies have released southpaw Bobby LaFromboise, tweets SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo. The 29-year-old had been pitching for Philadelphia’s Triple-A affiliate but limped to a 5.94 ERA in 16 2/3 innings of work there. That’s a noted departure from LaFromboise’s typically excellent work at the Triple-A level, and it’s worth noting that he’s pitched well in limited Major League action over the past two seasons with the Pirates, yielding just two runs on eight hits and a walk with a dozen strikeouts in a combined 11 2/3 innings of work.
Cardinals Sign Jerome Williams
The Cardinals have added veteran righty Jerome Williams on a minor league deal, GM John Mozeliak tells Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispact (via Twitter). He can earn at a $2MM rate if and when he reaches the majors, per SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo (via Twitter).
Williams seemingly waited to sign after undergoing a procedure on his Achilles tendon. He’ll now begin working towards making the Cardinals the eighth team with which he’s seen major league action. Williams will start out with the club’s top affiliate.
For St. Louis, Williams represents a swingman option. He has exceeded 100 innings in each of the last three seasons, and may be the type of steady piece needed for a staff has shown some cracks. Williams scuffled to a 5.24 ERA last year with the Phillies, but had carried a 4.54 earned run mark (with 6.1 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9) in the 466 innings he threw over the prior four seasons.
NL Notes: Masterson, Nationals, Grilli, Bruce
Right-hander Justin Masterson has completed his rehab with the Pirates at extended Spring Training and has been assigned to Triple-A Indianapolis, the team announced (Twitter link). Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports tweets that the goal for Masterson is to make a pair of starts for Indianapolis, and he’ll aim for a return to the big leagues following that. Masterson inked a minor league contract with the Bucs back in mid-April after he was largely recovered from arthroscopic surgery that was performed on his right shoulder last September. He’s struggled to a 5.79 ERA with the Indians, Cardinals and Red Sox in the past two seasons but was a strong member of the Cleveland rotation for years before that. He’ll hope for better health and a return to prominence as the Pirates’ next reclamation project.
Here’s more from the Senior Circuit…
- With two months to prepare for the deadline, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports says that the Nationals are expected to look into building out the bullpen and picking up a left-handed bat. The idea, per the report, is that a lefty slugger could spell both Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth. Clint Robinson currently occupies that general role, though he’s off to a slow start and is not a very appealing option in the corner outfield.
- The Braves were glad to find a trade partner for Jason Grilli, who was shipped to the Blue Jays, as MLB.com’s Mark Bowman reports. Atlanta was set to release Grilli anyway, per the report, with GM John Coppolella explaining that “the main reason for the trade was to give opportunity to our young arms.” The financial component of the swap remains murky, but the Braves will pay some pro-rated portion of Grilli’s $3.5MM salary on the year.
- A blistering start to the season for Jay Bruce is enhancing his trade stock for the Reds, notes MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon. Bruce is hitting .275/.323/.571 with 11 homers on the season, and teams like the White Sox and Giants are both in need of outfield help (with Chicago, more specifically, seeking a left-handed bat). Cleveland, too, could be on the lookout for an outfield bat, though I’d imagine that Bruce’s significant salary (he’s earning $12.5MM this season, of which about $8.27MM remains) would be an impediment to talks. Bruce discussed his strong start with Sheldon, explaining he hasn’t felt this consistent in terms of approach and mechanics in quite some time.
10 Potential Replacements For Mike Moustakas And David Wright
A pair of teams have been struck with significant blows on the injury front in the past week, as the Royals announced last week that Mike Moustakas has a torn anterior cruciate ligament, while the Mets announced today that David Wright won’t even participate in any baseball activities for the next six weeks to two months. That injury ended Moustakas’ season, while Wright’s could leave him sidelined into mid-August or even September, as he’ll need awhile to get back up to speed after a potentially eight-week layoff.
Both clubs have internal options from which to choose — Cheslor Cuthbert, Whit Merrifield and Hunter Dozier for the Royals; Wilmer Flores and Matt Reynolds for the Mets — but injuries of that magnitude tend to eventually lead a team to explore the outside market. It doesn’t seem likely that either club will leap into action immediately, as one might expect had these injuries occurred closer to the Aug. 1 non-waiver trade deadline, but if and when they do explore the trade scene, there’s no shortage of options on which to inquire.
Let’s run down some names that could plausibly be in play…
Trevor Plouffe / Eduardo Nunez, Twins: With Minnesota staring at a virtually insurmountable climb in the AL Central, their infield options could be available sooner than most. Plouffe isn’t off to a good start (.246/.277/.362), but he batted .248/.312/.426 in 2200 plate appearances from 2012-15, showing 20-homer pop and steadily improving his glovework along the way. Plouffe is earning $7.25MM this year, so he’s not exactly a cheap asset, but if he turns it around at the dish, he’s controllable through 2017. He can also help out at first base, where the Mets are presently missing Lucas Duda. Nunez, meanwhile, is more of a utility option, but he’s played quite a bit of third in his career and has enjoyed a brilliant start to the 2016 season, hitting .331/.358/.509. He’s not a great defender, but he’s a competent bat with plenty of speed on the bases and a low salary. Nunez is earning $1.475MM this season and can be controlled through 2017 as well.
Yangervis Solarte, Padres: Executive chairman Ron Fowler voiced disgust with his team’s 2016 performance earlier this week and, in doing so, signaled that changes could be on the horizon. The number of Padres players that have underperformed this season limit their trade chips on the summer market, but the quietly steady Solarte has been excellent since returning from a hamstring injury. He’s hitting .339/.429/.593, and while no one should expect that to continue, he’s a .269/.334/.411 hitter since debuting in 2014 despite playing the majority of his games at Petco Park. He’ll be arbitration eligible for the first time this winter and is controllable through 2019, so the Padres would ask for a legitimate return.
Jed Lowrie / Danny Valencia, Athletics: Like Nunez, Lowrie embodies the “jack of all trades, master of none” profile, as he’s capable of playing many positions on the diamond but doesn’t draw positive defensive marks in most instances. Third base is the one exception, as he’s been a positive there in the eyes of both Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating. Lowrie has been playing mostly second base this season, but he logged nearly 400 innings at the hot corner last year in Houston. He’s batting .315/.355/.364 and earning $7.5MM this season. He’ll earn $6.5MM next year, and his contract contains a $6MM club option for the 2018 campaign (which comes with a $1MM buyout). Valencia would require a larger return, given his excellent production over the past calendar year, and the Royals have already been down that road once before, while the Mets may not have a regular spot for him late in the year. As an affordable slugger with a year of control remaining beyond 2016, he’s certainly appealing, and it’s tough to definitively rule out any trade when it comes to the A’s.
Yunel Escobar, Angels: The last-place Halos might not be waving the white flag just yet, but with baseball’s most injury-riddled pitching staff and a dismal farm system from which to draw reinforcements, things are bleak in Anaheim. Escobar has been a bright spot at the plate (.306/.362/.416) while earning just $7MM, and he comes with a 2017 option for the same price. Escobar’s poor defense weighs down the value brought to the table by his bat, and he’s also drawn questionable reviews (to put things mildly) for his clubhouse presence in the past. But, his premium contact skills would fit in well with the Royals’ philosophy, and he’s capable of playing multiple positions.
Luis Valbuena, Astros: The 30-year-old doesn’t look like he’s going to come close to matching last season’s career-best 25 homers. Valbuena is hitting .223/.320/.399 with six big flies on the year, demonstrating a solid walk rate but also a penchant for strikeouts. The left-handed-hitter is best deployed as a platoon option, which might make his $6.125MM salary steep, but Houston could be willing to absorb some of that salary. Former No. 2 overall pick Alex Bregman is demolishing minor league pitching and may be on the cusp of the Majors, so the Astros would probably be comfortable moving their starting third baseman even if they still aim to contend.
Kelly Johnson, Braves: Johnson looks primed to experience some deja vu this summer. After signing a one-year deal to return to the Braves (who originally drafted him) during the 2014-15 offseason, he found himself flipped to the Mets alongside Juan Uribe. Johnson isn’t hitting like he did in 2015, but he’s a known commodity to the Mets and can play all over the infield. Given his struggles (.210/.276/.295), the cost of acquisition figures to be minimal. Even if he doesn’t end up in New York, he’s an obvious trade candidate.
Aaron Hill, Brewers: On the more productive side of the veteran scale is Hill, whose huge May has perhaps made him a more appealing target for clubs in need of some infield help. The 34-year-old’s season-to-date batting line rests at a productive .274/.346/.433, and while he’s historically been a second baseman, Hill has piled up 557 innings at the hot corner over the past two seasons. He’s earning a steep $12MM in 2016, but the D-backs are reportedly on the hook for $6.5MM of that sum, and I’d imagine that the Brewers would be willing to kick in some additional funds if it meant improving the return.
Alex Guerrero, Dodgers (for now): The Dodgers designated Guerrero, he of a four-year/$28MM contract (signed in 2013), for assignment earlier this week when he completed a minor league rehab assignment. Guerrero hasn’t lived up to his contract by any stretch of the means, but he also never got an opportunity at regular playing time. He’s a poor defender and has batted .224 with a .251 on-base percentage in the Majors, but he also slugged .414 (.190 ISO) and ripped 11 homers in just 247 Major League PAs over the past two seasons. Guerrero owns a lifetime .303/.385/.526 batting line in Cuba’s Serie Nacional, and mashed at a .323/.357/.598 clip in 266 Triple-A plate appearances with the Dodgers. It’s unlikely that a team would be willing to take on the remainder of his contract in a trade, but Guerrero could soon be released, thus freeing him to sign with any club willing to roll the dice.
Certainly, there are other names to consider. Each team can explore everything from bad contract (e.g. Chase Headley) to former prospects now in the upper minors (e.g. Will Middlebrooks), to elite prospects like Joey Gallo that may be somewhat “blocked” at the MLB level (though the latter of the three presents further long-term roster maneuvering). And, as is the case every year, other names will most likely surface as trade candidates once the non-waiver trade deadline draws closer. However, for a pair of clubs in tight races for the division lead — the Royals hold a 1.5 game lead on the AL Central, while the Mets are three back in the NL East — acting sooner rather than later to fill a void can make a sizable impact.
David Wright Shut Down For Six To Eight Weeks
11:04am: The news on Wright is considerably worse than the prior four-to-six week barometer, as the Mets have announced that he’ll rest for six to eight weeks without any form of baseball activity. Following such a lengthy layoff, he’ll of course need to embark on a minor league rehab assignment, which would mean that an absence of more than two months is certainly in play. Wright has been placed on the 15-day disabled list, with Matt Reynolds recalled from Triple-A to fill his roster spot.
JUNE 3, 7:44am: Wright will be out for at least four to six weeks, tweets Rosenthal.
JUNE 2, 9:43pm: Wright will not undergo surgery on his neck, at least “in the short term,” but it remains an option in the future, according to Rubin (via Twitter).
8:11pm: Mets third baseman David Wright is expected to miss an “extended period” with his recently-diagnosed neck ailment, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). It appears that the club will call up Matt Reynolds to take his roster spot, per Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com (via Twitter).
Wright had received a cortisone shot in hopes of avoiding a DL stint for a herniated disk, but that evidently did not resolve the issue. It remains to be seen whether surgery will be required. The veteran was already attempting to play through a significant back condition that required constant care and preparation. Today’s news raises renewed concerns for a club that’s already dealing with the absence of first baseman Lucas Duda (who has been replaced for the time being with James Loney).
The 33-year-old Wright had been a sturdy contributor out of the gates this year, even if he is no longer able to match his prime-level production. Over 164 plate appearances, he’s carrying a .226/.350/.438 bating line and has swatted seven long balls. On the other hand, defensive metrics have not been kind to the one-time star.
Wright’s health was always a major question for New York, and it seems that some of the worst fears could be coming to fruition. The club does have some depth built around him, starting with Wilmer Flores and extending into a minor league system with numerous infielders on the rise. But none of the team’s internal options have anything approaching Wright’s record of success in the majors.
Truth be told, the Mets had little choice but to roll the dice on Wright, who’s owed $20MM this year and another $67MM over the four seasons to come. Adding infielders Asdrubal Cabrera and Neil Walker helped boost the overall talent level in the infield, but losing both Wright and Duda will strain the organization’s resources.
6 Pending Free Agents Who Improved Their Stock In May
While the usual “it’s still early” caveat goes without saying, some teams have already played a third of their schedule. We’re quickly approaching that point when a good start morphs into simply a good season altogether. Looking at the lists of position players and pitchers (big tip of the hat to Fangraphs) who are eligible to hit the open market after the 2016 season, some notable names have already done a lot to position themselves for big multi-year deals this winter. This post won’t focus as much on the upper-tier players who may sit atop the free agent power rankings, but rather the lower- or middle-tier names coming into this season looking to greatly improve their stock.
Jeremy Hellickson, Phillies: A thin starting pitching class became even thinner after Stephen Strasburg signed an extension with the Nationals, which opens the door for several free agent starters to score larger-than-expected contracts. For instance, look at the 2011 AL Rookie of the Year enjoying a strong rebound season in Philadelphia. Hellickson posted a 3.58 ERA, 8.84 K/9 and 4.63 K/9 rate in 37 2/3 IP last month and delivered similar numbers in April. ERA predictors xFIP (3.37) and SIERA (3.39) actually have an even brighter view of the righty’s season, in a reversal of Hellickson’s early seasons with Tampa Bay when he was posting low ERAs but worrisome peripherals. Hellickson is on pace for career-bests in strikeout and walk rates, and he’s performing well despite an ungainly 16.4% home run rate. You wouldn’t have pegged Hellickson as a qualifying offer candidate prior to the season, though now it’s not out of the realm of possibility…unless, of course, he gets traded, though that could depend on whether or not the surprisingly competitive Phillies decide to take a run at a wild card.
Aaron Hill, Brewers: After two mediocre seasons in Arizona and a rough April in Milwaukee, it looked like Hill’s career simply might have been winding down in his age-34 season. Then, Hill hit .357/.455/.583 with five homers and 14 runs in 100 PA over a scalding-hot May, posting the same fWAR (+1.4) over the month as the likes of David Ortiz, Kris Bryant and Mookie Betts. No doubt the .385 BABIP helped Hill post those big numbers, though when you’re a mid-30’s veteran, even one excellent month could be the difference between your next contract being a Major League or minor league deal. If Hill even remotely approaches similar production over the next six weeks, he would stand out as a trade deadline chip for contenders looking for infield help.
Steve Pearce, Rays: Speaking of veteran infielders coming off a big month, Pearce has started games at first, second and third for Tampa this season, while crushing seven homers and hitting .317/.406/.622 over 96 PA in May. Pearce hit the open market last winter with a rather hard-to-evaluate stock, though with another strong season under his belt, he should finally be able to command a multi-year deal. Pearce still has lopsided splits (.736 OPS vs. righty pitching, 1.297 OPS vs. lefties) but a player who can provide that kind of power in a ballpark that typically suppresses right-handed power (i.e. Tropicana Field) will turn heads.
Doug Fister, Astros: The right-hander was so bad in April that MLBTR’s Steve Adams cited him as one of the free agents who had hurt their stock with a poor showing in the opening month. Like Hill, however, Fister righted the ship in May, posting a 2.84 ERA and 57.4% grounder rate over 38 innings. ERA indicators weren’t as kind (4.12 FIP, 4.06 xFIP, 4.18 SIERA) in May, but even in a couple of his prime seasons, Fister’s low-strikeout, grounder-heavy attack led him to outperform the advanced metrics. Fister still has a couple of warning signs hanging over him, namely a 3.3 BB/9 that would be a career high over a full season and an average fastball that clocks in at 86.4 mph, only a touch higher than his FB velocity during his rough 2015 season. Still, given how poor Fister looked in April, any sort of improvement is welcome.
Logan Morrison, Rays: How bad was Morrison’s April? Put it this way…he posted an astonishing negative-22 wRC+ over 64 PA in April, meaning he created 122% fewer runs than a league-average player. Just as quickly, however, Morrison went from hitting like Bob Friend to hitting like Mike Trout, thanks to a .351/.455/.486 slash line (and a 167 wRC+) over 88 PA in May. The month-to-month gulf was so enormous that it’s somewhat hard to predict what’s next for Morrison, though his big May provides some hope that he can still emerge as a post-hype prospect for Tampa and land a solid contract in the offseason.
Chase Utley, Dodgers: Utley hit .281/.363/.416 with three homers and 18 runs scored over 102 May plate appearances, making it back-to-back solid months for the veteran second baseman. While Utley’s .336 BABIP hints that his revival may not last, he’s still on pace for a big improvement over his poor 2015 campaign. I’m going to go out on a limb and guess that the Mets won’t be bidding on Utley in this winter’s free agent market, though he’ll find plenty of interest amongst the other 29 teams if he chooses to keep playing into his age-38 season.