2017 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings
During the month of May, we saw a pair of key players decide to forgo free agency. Nationals starter Stephen Strasburg, by far the best projected free agent from the 2016-17 class, signed a seven-year, $175MM extension that includes heavy deferrals and two opt-out clauses. I believe Strasburg left at least $50MM on the table in making the surprising decision to sign. With Strasburg off the market, we’re unlikely to see any $100MM pitchers this winter after four hurlers reached that mark last offseason.
Francisco Cervelli, projected to be the best catcher on the 2016-17 free agent market, signed a three-year, $31MM extension with the Pirates. Cervelli may have left $20MM or more on the table in signing his new deal.
So, we’ve lost the #1 and #10 free agents on last month’s power rankings. Below, I’ve ranked the remaining projected free agents by earning power. You can view the full list of 2016-17 MLB free agents here.
1. Yoenis Cespedes. With 15 home runs in his first 193 plate appearances, Cespedes has a good chance to reach 40 for the first time. He’s increasingly likely to opt out of the remaining two years and $47.5MM on his contract with the Mets. The 30-year-old slugger could be the only free agent to reach $100MM this offseason, underlining the lack of relatively young high-end players on the market.
2. Jose Bautista. The most noteworthy part of Bautista’s May was his run-in with Rougned Odor‘s fist. Bautista served a one-game suspension for his role in the ensuing brawl. At the moment, I’m projecting a four-year deal in the $100MM range for Bautista, who turns 36 in October.
3. Josh Reddick. Reddick fractured his left thumb during a headfirst slide on May 19th. While the injury will not require surgery, he’s expected to be out until late June. Reddick was swinging a hot bat leading up to the injury. Assuming he continues to produce upon his return, I don’t see the injury affecting his earning power. I can see a five-year deal approaching $100MM.
4. Kenley Jansen. Not much has changed with Jansen, who has a shot at a five-year deal. It seems likely that a reliever will end up with the largest pitching contract of the offseason.
5. Edwin Encarnacion. Encarnacion recovered from an ugly April to post a solid May. He could wind up with a three-year deal with a salary in excess of $20MM.
6. Dexter Fowler. Fowler continued to rake in the month of May, hitting .295/.403/.476. He currently ranks third among position players with 3.2 wins above replacement, after Mike Trout and Manny Machado. I’m projecting a four-year deal in excess of $60MM for Fowler, after he was left with a disappointing one-year deal last winter.
7. Aroldis Chapman. Chapman made his Yankees debut on May 9th after serving a 30-day suspension for a domestic violence incident. He’s looked as dominant as ever, and a large free agent payday is in the offing. The question is whether Chapman can get a five-year deal, in light of that October incident.
8. Neil Walker. Walker posted another solid month for the Mets. In a thin market, perhaps he could land a Chase Headley contract (four years, $52MM) if he keeps going strong.
9. Rich Hill. Hill now has 11 starts under his belt this year with a 2.25 ERA and 10.4 K/9. The southpaw, who turns 37 next March, has come a long way in the last year. He appears to have a good chance at a four-win season, which generally seemed impossible for most of the last decade. Despite Hill’s age, I think a three-year deal in excess of $40MM is within reach.
10. Mark Trumbo. After another big power month, Trumbo is now tied for third in the AL with 15 home runs. If he winds up near 40 home runs this year, a strong three-year deal becomes possible. However, his value is hurt by his defensive limitations.
Carlos Gomez, who was ranked fifth on this list last month, has dropped out of the top ten. The hope is that he’ll finally start hitting after serving a May DL stint for bruised ribs. However, at this point he’s a candidate to take a one-year deal to rebuild value.
Four players were very close to making the list: catchers Matt Wieters and Wilson Ramos, and outfielders Michael Saunders and Ian Desmond. Each of them appears to be setting up for a three-year deal at this point. If four years starts to seem likely for any of these players, they’ll have a spot in the top ten.
NL Central Notes: Rondon, Cubs, Vogelsong, Reds
Cubs closer Hector Rondon has emerged from the brink of retirement to hold down a critical role on a high-performing club, as Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports writes. His relatively meager saves totals belie his effectiveness and importance to a team that has had more than its share of blowout wins this year. After nearly giving up baseball with the Indians, Rondon was plucked in the Rule 5 draft after some savvy assessment by coach Franklin Font. It’s an interesting read on an interesting player.
Elsewhere in the NL Central …
- The Cubs are doing their homework on possible trade targets, with a particular focus on pitching depth, Bruce Levine of 670thescore.com reports. According to the report, a quality left-handed reliever could be at or near the top of the list, though general manager Jed Hoyer says that the club remains confident in Travis Wood and Clayton Richard. The GM also cautions that it’s too early to expect any movement. “It’s still really early,” he said. “We are doing our due diligence. We are working hard and scouting the players that may become available. It is still exceptionally early in the trade season for anything.”
- Pirates righty Ryan Vogelsong had surgery to address multiple facial fractures suffered when he was hit by a pitch in his last start, as Stephen Nesbitt of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports. According to the club, his rehab timeline will be addressed once the swelling goes down, with more information expected to be forthcoming next week.
- The Reds are gearing up for what could prove to be an interesting draft, as MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon reports. Cincinnati sports the highest overall draft bonus pool in the league, and scouting director Chris Buckley says that could open some opportunities to “get more creative throughout the entire draft — not just early in the draft but later in the draft.” Signability remains a key consideration, he noted. President of baseball operations Walt Jocketty also cited the benefits of the large pool, saying the team aims to “improve the depth and inventory” of the farm.
Nationals To Promote Trea Turner
The Nationals will call up top position-player prospect Trea Turner, as the Talk Nats blog first reported on Twitter. He’ll join the club tomorrow, per MLB.com’s Bill Ladson (via Twitter), likely taking the active roster spot of first baseman Ryan Zimmerman, who is going on paternity leave.
Given that Zimmerman will only miss a few days, it’s not yet clear how long Turner will be up. It could be that he’ll just fill in temporarily at second base, with Daniel Murphy shifting to first, as MLB.com’s Jamal Collier suggests on Twitter.
But it’s certainly possible that this represents the beginning of Turner’s first full trial in D.C., which could have important repercussions for this season and the future. The Nats have relied on a combination of Danny Espinosa and Stephen Drew at shortstop. While that makes for a solid defensive pairing, the two have combined for an ugly .194/.281/.347 batting line on the year.
Turner, meanwhile, has improved upon the already-strong results he posted in his first attempt at Triple-A in 2015. He only managed nine hits in 44 plate appearances at the big league level in his brief call-up last year, but has put to rest any questions as to whether he’s due for another chance. Over 222 plate appearances at Syracuse in 2016, Turner owns a .310/.376/.472 batting line with three home runs and 17 steals.
The division-leading Nats aren’t exactly in need of a boost, as the club is off to a promising 33-and-21 start. But going to Turner now would allow the organization to get a firm idea of its middle infield mix in advance of the summer trade deadline. Were it not for the presence of Turner, the Nationals could well be considered a plausible buyer at the shortstop position over the next two months.
It’s important to note, too, that service time is no longer a compelling consideration for the team. After entering the season with 45 days on his ledger, Turner will not be able to tally a full season even if he remains active the rest of the way. That means that Washington can deploy him in the majors for all of this season while still controlling him through the 2022 campaign.
Turner came to D.C. along with Joe Ross in the three-team deal that sent Wil Myers to the Padres from the Rays, who in turn picked up Steven Souza from the Nats (among other players changing hands). With Ross providing strong contributions at the game’s highest level in his age-22 and 23 seasons, the deal already looks good from Washington’s perspective. If Turner successfully transitions to the majors, it could prove to be a coup.
Heyman’s Latest: Harper/Machado, Braves, Shields, Odor
Bryce Harper of the Nationals and Manny Machado of the Orioles are young, controlled superstars who look like highly appealing extension targets. Of course, that also makes them incredibly expensive potential candidates for their respective teams, as Jon Heyman explains at todaysknuckleball.com. According to Heyman, there’s some suggestion that it could take more than $500MM over an unprecedented term to keep Harper from heading to the open market after the 2018 season. “We have not to this point had any substantive negotiations about a long-term deal,” Nats GM Mike Rizzo said with regard to Harper. Rizzo did suggest that the team has serious interest in doing so, however. “They know what our intentions are,” he said. “My intention is always to get him on a long-term deal that will make him a National for life. At a very young age he performed admirably, not only admirably, but the year he had was historic. It’s going to be a unique deal. We have a very unique player.”
As for Machado, he might not be far behind in value if the O’s hope to reach a deal. Intriguingly, the report suggests that Baltimore very nearly agreed to a seven-year contract with its best player at some point in recent years. That would have certainly proved a bargain given Machado’s increasingly outstanding performance, though the terms of the prospective pact are not known. (Neither is it clear what caused negotiations to fall apart.)
Here’s more from Heyman:
- “A few teams” have checked in with the Braves on Nick Markakis, Heyman writes, but his recent skid at the plate hasn’t helped out his trade value much. Kelly Johnson, too, could become available, though Heyman adds that GM John Coppolella said of Julio Teheran that he expects the right-hander “to be on the team a long time.” From my vantage point, Markakis doesn’t have much value at $11MM per season and with apparently evaporated power. Even if the Braves were to pay down half of his remaining salary through the 2018 season, he hasn’t been productive enough to bring in a meaningful prospect return.
- The Orioles talked to the Padres about James Shields in Spring Training but weren’t willing to cover even half of the salary owed to Shields at the time. Shields has two years and $44MM remaining on his contract following the 2016 season (if he doesn’t opt out), and he’s earning $21MM this season as well. Shields has grabbed headlines recently, having been prominently featured in trade rumors over the weekend and then suffering a 10-run meltdown earlier this week, which the team’s executive chairman publicly referred to as “an embarrassment.”
- The Red Sox, too, have considered Shields but are waiting to see how Eduardo Rodriguez performs upon returning from the disabled list (so far, so good). The White Sox, meanwhile, would want the Padres to pay down a significant portion of the $57MM that remains on Shields’ contract (again, barring an opt out). Heyman writes that a source indicated that shortstop prospect Tim Anderson wouldn’t be involved in talks, though that doesn’t strike me as a surprising revelation; even with half of his contract paid down, that would seem like an overpay on Chicago’s behalf. On a somewhat similar vein, Heyman adds that the Padres approached the Tigers about Shields, but Detroit had no interest in parting with any of Michael Fulmer, Daniel Norris or Matt Boyd in a potential deal.
- Shortly after the Rockies acquired Jose Reyes, the Yankees were willing to part with shortstop prospect Jorge Mateo and pay half of the $22MM that is owed to Reyes annually through the 2017 season, Heyman hears.
- The jobs of Tigers manager Brad Ausmus and Twins manager Paul Molitor are safe, Heyman writes, though he adds that Detroit GM Al Avila has privately told Ausmus to stop discussing his job security (or lack thereof) with the media, as the situation doesn’t need any extra fuel.
- Greg Holland could take the mound in August, per Heyman, and he may wait until that point before deciding on a team. Both the Royals and Braves have shown interest to this point, he adds.
- The Athletics “may be a favorite” for Cuban second baseman Jose Miguel Fernandez, writes Heyman, who also notes that incumbent second baseman Jed Lowrie could help a number of clubs on the trade market. The Padres, too, are said to be considering Fernandez, he adds.
- Rougned Odor‘s agent and Rangers GM Jon Daniels recently rekindled extension talks, and Heyman notes that the team heaped praise onto Odor during his appeal hearing during which his suspension for punching Jose Bautista was dropped from eight games to seven games. His suspension has also given Jurickson Profar a chance to play, and Heyman writes that the former top prospect could be a trade candidate now that he’s healthy. Sticking with the Rangers, Heyman adds that the Phillies lobbied hard for Texas to include Nomar Mazara in last year’s Cole Hamels blockbuster, but Daniels refused to give him up.
- The Nationals talked with the D-backs in the offseason about Gio Gonzalez, but Arizona wouldn’t part with Ender Inciarte or David Peralta in the prospective trade. Heyman writes that the Nats spoke to a few teams about Gonzalez, including the Marlins. However, Miami wasn’t keen on surrendering Christian Yelich.
Jeremy Guthrie Released By Padres After Exercising Opt-Out
THURSDAY: Guthrie has been given his release, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports on Twitter.
WEDNESDAY: Veteran righty Jeremy Guthrie will exercise an opt-out clause in his deal with the Padres, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). He expects to hit the market soon, though the precise timeline is unclear.
Guthrie, 37, has thrown sixty innings at Triple-A on the year. He owns a 6.60 ERA with 5.6 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9 over that span. Guthrie has generally been trended up of late, though the overall picture doesn’t inspire much confidence.
It remains to be seen whether Guthrie can make it back to the majors for the 13th consecutive year, but other teams will certainly give consideration in light of his track record of large innings tallies. He has topped 200 innings in five of the last seven seasons and owns a 4.37 lifetime ERA over 1,764 2/3 total frames. Last year, though, was his worst complete season in the majors, as he allowed just under six earned runs per game for the Royals.
MLBTR Live Chat: 6/2/16
Click here to read a transcript of today’s live chat with host Jeff Todd.
Phillies Designate David Lough For Assignment
The Phillies announced today that they’ve activated Cody Asche from the 15-day disabled list and designated outfielder David Lough for assignment to clear a spot for Asche on the active roster. Additionally, the team activated southpaw Mario Hollands, who underwent Tommy John surgery in April 2015, from the disabled list and optioned him to Triple-A Lehigh Valley.
Lough, 30, inked a minor league contract with the Phils this offseason, and while he didn’t make the team out of Spring Training, he had his contract selected to the big league roster in mid-April Since April 18, Lough has appeared in 30 games for Philadelphia, batting .239/.342/.313 in 79 plate appearances. He’s long graded out as a defensively sound corner outfielder, and that was again the case in this season’s limited sample of innings.
The Phillies will have 10 days to trade, release or outright Lough, although if he clears outright waivers he’d have the option to reject an assignment to the minors in favor of free agency due to the fact that he’s been outrighted in the past. Lough is a career .254/.300/.371 hitter whose best seasons came in 2013-14 while serving as a platoon outfielder for the Royals and Orioles. He batted a combined .272/.310/.403 during that time, with the vast majority of his at-bats coming against right-handed pitching.
Opt-Outs: Joe Thatcher, Hak-Ju Lee
June 1 serves as a common date for opt-out clauses in minor league contracts, and as such, there figure to be a few players on the verge of free agency. It’s already been reported that Travis Snider won’t opt out of his deal with the Royals, and we’ll keep track of the rest of the day’s opt-out decisions in this post…
- Veteran lefty Joe Thatcher has exercised the opt-out clause in his minor league deal with the Dodgers, tweets SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo. The Dodgers have until Saturday to add him to the big league roster or he’ll be a free agent. Thatcher, 34, spent the 2015 season with the Astros and totaled 22 2/3 innings of 3.18 ERA ball with a 26-to-12 K/BB ratio. Thatcher didn’t display his typical excellence against lefties, yielding a .241/.362/.321 batting line to same-handed opponents, but he’s an overall line of .232/.298/.348 to lefty batters in his big league career. He has a 3.86 ERA with a 20-to-5 K/BB ratio in 14 innings at the Triple-A level thus far in 2016 and could get a look elsewhere as a situational lefty if the Dodgers elect not to add him to the big league bullpen.
- Shortstop Hak-Ju Lee has also exercised a June 1 opt-out in his minors deal with the Giants, MLBTR has learned (Twitter link). Lee, a former Top 100 prospect with the Cubs and Rays, is hitting .263/.343/.378 with three homers and four steals in 45 games/178 plate appearances with Triple-A Sacramento this season. San Francisco has 72 hours to add him to the active roster. The 25-year-old has played shortstop almost exclusively throughout his career but has logged a pair of games at third base this season. Lee’s career was slowed by a collision at second base in 2013 that left him with multiple torn ligaments in his left knee, and he hasn’t topped 100 games in a season since 2012 (though he’s healthy and on pace to do so in 2016). Baseball America wrote prior to the 2015 season that Lee possessed above-average range, a plus throwing arm and soft hands at shortstop.
Giants Place Hunter Pence On Disabled List
The Giants have placed right fielder Hunter Pence on the disabled list with a strained right hamstring, manager Bruce Bochy told reporters prior to today’s game (via Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle). Pence missed about a week late last month due to a balky hamstring but returned to the lineup over the weekend. However, he came up lame in an attempt to run out a grounder last night and was unable to even finish running to first base. He underwent an MRI this morning, after which Bochy told the media: “Unfortunately, he did a pretty good job on it. That’s a shame.” In other words, Schulman notes, Pence is dealing with a severe strain, which almost certainly rules out a speedy return to the lineup. Surgery has not yet been discussed, though Pence’s MRI still needs to be reviewed by team physician Kenneth Akizuki.
For the time being, the Giants have recalled outfielder Mac Williamson to take Pence’s place on the roster. The 25-year-old Williamson is currently sporting a fairly robust .287/.316/.503 batting line with Triple-A Sacramento, though it’s unreasonable to ask him to fill Pence’s shoes from a production standpoint at the big league level. Pence is currently batting .298/.375/.486 with seven homers on the season, but he’ll now join the Giants’ other corner outfielder, Angel Pagan, on the disabled list with a similar injury. That leaves the NL-West-leading Giants with an outfield mix of Denard Span, Gregor Blanco and the inexperienced duo of Williamson and Jarrett Parker. Brandon Belt could potentially see some time in left field as well; he’s logged just one inning there this season but played 96 innings out there in 2015 and has 355 big league innings at the position.
While there’s no definitive timetable on Pence’s absence, a prolonged stint on the disabled list would invite trade speculation. Pagan is said to be coming along nicely in his rehab and could return to the club sometime next week, Schulman notes, which could lessen the immediate need for some outfield help. However, Pagan doesn’t provide the same offensive skill set, despite a solid .275/.338/.383 batting line at the time of his most recent injury, and he’s also been very prone to injury over the past four seasons with San Francisco. It’s early in the summer still, but MLBTR’s Jeff Todd did recently compile a list of 10 of the game’s likeliest trade candidates while also mentioning several others to monitor as the deadline approaches.
AL Central Notes: Anibal, Indians, Kepler, Snider
The Tigers have removed Anibal Sanchez from the rotation and replaced him with left-hander Matt Boyd, as Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press writes. Sanchez took the move as well as could be expected, manager Brad Ausmus told the media, and Fenech writes that Sanchez spoke with conviction about working to correct his flaws and reclaim his job. Sanchez, who is earning $16MM in 2016, the fourth season of a five-year, $80MM contract, has surrendered a 6.67 ERA through his first 56 2/3 innings of the year. He led the American League with 29 homers allowed in 157 innings last season and has allowed an even more alarming 14 long balls in this year’s 56 2/3 frames while also displaying his worst control since 2009 (4.6 BB/9). Sanchez is owed $16MM once again in 2017, and the Tigers hold a $16MM club option for the 2018 season that comes with a hefty $5MM buyout. With offseason signee Mike Pelfrey struggling so greatly as well, the Tigers are definite candidates to seek rotation upgrades this summer, though the emergence of Michael Fulmer and a recent string of solid outings for Daniel Norris at Triple-A may lessen the urgency.
More from the AL Central…
- The Indians need to trade for an outfield bat in the wake of Marlon Byrd‘s 162-game suspension, opines Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer. Suspensions for Byrd and Abraham Almonte, combined with the shoulder woes of Michael Brantley, has left Cleveland with an outfield mix of Rajai Davis, Tyler Naquin, Lonnie Chisenhall and Jose Ramirez. As Hoynes writes, the Indians “have pretty much said” that top prospects Bradley Zimmer and Clint Frazier won’t play in the Majors this season, so neither Double-A outfielder seems like an immediate option. President of baseball operations Chris Antonetti said to Hoynes that the club will “take some time to determine” if a trade is necessary, and he also explained that the club “spent a lot of time working through” Byrd’s first positive test before electing to sign him. Byrd, of course, went three years between suspensions and passed numerous drug tests along the way.
- Twins outfield prospect Max Kepler hasn’t seen much playing time in either of his first two stints at the Major League level, but manager Paul Molitor said that this time around, he’ll get more of a chance at regular playing time, writes MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger. The 23-year-old German outfielder raked at a .322/.416/.531 clip at Double-A last season en route to Southern League MVP honors, and he batted .282/.367/.455 in 30 games at Triple-A after being demoted to Rochester earlier this season. Notably, Bollinger adds that the Triple-A coaching staff recommended Kepler over recently demoted Eddie Rosario, who is hitting .333 since a mid-May demotion but still hasn’t drawn a walk in 51 plate appearances.
- Travis Snider will not opt out of his minor league contract with the Royals, per SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo (Twitter link). The 28-year-old had a June 1 opt-out date but will instead remain with Triple-A Omaha, where he’s batted .259/.377/.348 in 162 plate appearances. The Royals have lost Alex Gordon to a fracture in his hand for the time being, so perhaps the hope is that a need in the outfield corner will lead to a promotion in the near future.

