Poll: Will Yoenis Cespedes Re-Sign With Mets?
In perhaps the least surprising development of the young offseason, star outfielder Yoenis Cespedes officially opted out of the two years and $47.5MM remaining on his contract with the Mets and become a free agent Saturday. One reason Cespedes chose to re-sign with New York on a three-year, $75MM deal last offseason was its willingness to give him a three-day opt-out window after the 2016 World Series. Now, having taken advantage of that exit clause, Cespedes is back on the market as arguably the top player available.
In an underwhelming free agent class, the 31-year-old Cespedes likely stands the best chance of landing a nine-figure accord prior to next season. Cespedes reportedly could have inked a five-year, $110MM contract with the Nationals last winter, but their offer came with a decade of heavily deferred payments that would have reduced the present-day value of the deal to $77MM. Back then, Cespedes was part of a class that featured seven players who signed contracts ranging from $110MM to $217MM in total value. Two of those standouts, Jason Heyward and Justin Upton, were fellow outfielders.
Cespedes won’t encounter competition along the lines of Heyward and Upton this year, which should help his cause in securing the highest-paying deal of the winter after he slashed .280/.354/.530 with 31 home runs in 543 plate appearances in 2016. That was the third excellent offensive season in the five-year major league career of Cespedes, a lifetime .272/.325/.494 hitter who has accounted for 18.6 fWAR and 18.7 bWAR in a combined 2,978 PAs with the Athletics, Red Sox, Tigers and Mets.
Having already played for four teams in a half-decade, the Cuban emigree has been a nomad since signing with Oakland in 2012. If Cespedes receives the type of deal he desires in the next few months, his days of switching uniforms should be over – at least for a while. Of course, now the question is whether he’ll remain in Queens or head to his fifth major league destination. Cespedes hopes to stay with the Mets, who acquired him from the Tigers prior to the 2015 trade deadline, but New York hadn’t opened contract talks with him as of Wednesday and once again doesn’t want to exceed three years on a contract. We’ll find out soon enough whether that’s unrealistic on the part of the Mets. In the meantime, they’ll tender Cespedes a qualifying offer by Monday’s deadline in order to receive a first-round pick as compensation if he signs elsewhere.
Ideally for the Mets (and for the player, it seems), they’ll re-up Cespedes to continue serving as the nucleus of their lineup. But considering they’re wary of engaging in a bidding war, it’s possible we’ve seen the last of Cespedes in a Mets uniform. How do you expect free agency to play out for him?
(Poll link for Trade Rumors App users)
Will Yoenis Cespedes re-sign with the Mets?
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No 68% (8,976)
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Yes 32% (4,259)
Total votes: 13,235
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Cubs To Tender Qualifying Offer To Dexter Fowler
In unsurprising news, the Cubs will tender Dexter Fowler a $17.2MM qualifying offer by Monday’s deadline, and the center fielder is likely to reject it, reports FanRag’s Jon Heyman.
Fowler, who’s fresh off helping the Cubs to their first World Series title in 108 years, declined his half of a $9MM mutual option for 2017 on Saturday and became a free agent. Fowler is all too familiar with the open market, as the 30-year-old rejected a $15.8MM qualifying offer from the Cubs last November and then went without a deal until February. After nearly taking the Orioles’ three-year, $33MM offer, Fowler re-signed with the Cubs for a guaranteed $13MM.
Fowler will once again have first-round compensation hanging over his head this offseason, but he should fare much better this time around as perhaps the second-best outfielder on the market, trailing only Yoenis Cespedes. The former Rockie and Astro is coming off the top season of his career, having slashed .276/.393/.447 with 13 home runs and 13 steals across 551 plate appearances to earn his first All-Star nod. Combining Fowler’s work at the plate, on the bases and in the field, where a change in positioning led to improved metrics, he accounted for a personal-high 4.7 fWAR.
While it’s possible Fowler will re-sign with the Cubs, prospective contenders like the Mets, Mariners and Rangers, to name a few, are among clubs that are likely to search for outfield help via free agency. Fowler has spent his entire career in center, but marketing himself as a corner option could lead to more suitors, thus driving up his price.
Scott Kazmir Does Not Exercise Opt-Out Clause
Left-hander Scott Kazmir did not opt out of the two years and $32MM remaining on his contract with the Dodgers prior to Saturday’s deadline, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Barring a trade, the 32-year-old will stay with the Dodgers next season.
After a stint in the independent Atlantic League in 2012, the former elite prospect tossed 150-plus frames in each season from 2013-15 and recorded a 3.54 ERA, 8.15 K/9, 2.64 BB/9, 42.6 percent ground-ball rate and 9.7 percent home run-to-fly ball ratio in 667 2/3 innings. On the strength of that 92-start stretch, Kazmir agreed to a three-year, $48MM deal with Los Angeles last winter in a market that featured far more high-end pitching than this offseason’s class, so another quality campaign would have made him an obvious opt-out candidate. Instead, the three-time All-Star logged a 4.56 ERA – up from 3.10 in 2015 – over just 136 1/3 innings. Part of the problem for Kazmir was a 15 percent HR-FB ratio, by far the highest figure of his 11-year major league tenure. He also recorded a 3.43 BB/9, a notable decline from the control he showed in the previous three seasons, and threw just one inning after August (on Sept. 23) as he dealt with thoracic spine inflammation and spasms in his ribs and chest.
The 2016 season wasn’t a complete disaster for Kazmir, who posted an 8.85 K/9 and 14.3 percent infield fly rate – his best marks in those categories since 2013 and 2009, respectively – and yielded mostly soft contact. Given Kazmir’s somewhat strong track record and the dearth of of decent starters on this year’s market, it’s possible he could draw trade interest, as Sherman notes. It’s unknown if the Dodgers plan to shop Kazmir, but if they do, it would be a tall order to deal him without eating some portion of the money left on his contract.
Cubs Notes: Rotation, Soler, Epstein
The latest on the 2016 World Series champions:
- The Cubs have an enviable long-term core of position players that includes Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Addison Russell, Javier Baez, Willson Contreras, Jason Heyward and Kyle Schwarber. However, future rotation issues could prevent the team from becoming a dynasty, writes ESPN’s Buster Olney (Insider required and recommended), who points out that Kyle Hendricks, Jon Lester and swingman/World Series Game 7 closer Mike Montgomery are their only starters signed beyond next season. Jake Arrieta, John Lackey and Jason Hammel will be free agents a year from now, and rival talent evaluators feel that Chicago’s top pitching prospects are still far from potentially cracking the majors, per Olney. Thus, in order to fill out their rotation, the Cubs could turn to next year’s open market – Yu Darvish, Masahiro Tanaka and Danny Duffy are among starters who could hit free agency then – and/or deal from their excellent group of position players to acquire pitching.
- With Heyward, Schwarber, Ben Zobrist and Albert Almora Jr. in the fold as outfield options, the Cubs could shop Jorge Soler this offseason. But FOX Sports’ CJ Nitkowski opines that Chicago missed its chance to trade Soler (Twitter link via MLB Network Radio). It wasn’t long ago that Soler looked like a surefire core piece, but the Cuba native has underwhelmed since bursting on the scene late in the 2014 campaign. He’s still just 24, though, and didn’t perform badly at the plate in 2016 (.238/.333/.436 with 12 home runs in 264 plate appearances). Soler is also controllable through the 2020 season. He’ll make a relative pittance ($3MM) in 2017 and will then have the opportunity to opt into arbitration.
- President of baseball operations Theo Epstein’s shrewd trading is one obvious reason the Cubs are in their current position, as Andrew Simon of MLB.com observes. Epstein has picked up several integral players that way, having landed Rizzo, Arrieta, Hendricks and Russell, to name a few. Nabbing Rizzo from the Padres in 2012 is the best deal Epstein has made since taking the helm of the franchise five years ago, posits Simon. The Cubs got the now-superstar first baseman for right-hander Andrew Cashner, who currently resembles more of a back-end starter than a major difference-maker.
AL East Links: Rays, Longoria, Orioles, Hobgood, Blue Jays
Some news and notes from around the AL East…
- “When you only win 68 games, you’re open to everything,” Rays president of baseball operations Matt Silverman tells Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. “Everything” doesn’t quite extend to Evan Longoria, as Topkin writes that the team doesn’t have any interest in trading the longtime face of the franchise. The Rays head into the GM Meetings and the offseason in general with many needs, with Silverman saying that the club will primarily rely on trades to fill those needs (no surprise, given Tampa’s usual reluctance to spend big on free agents).
- The Orioles‘ search for a new pitching coach continues, as the team interviewed Double-A pitching coach Alan Mills this past week, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko reports. The O’s are also interested in former Braves pitching coach Roger McDowell and Cardinals minor league pitching coordinator Tim Leveque.
- Also from Kubatko’s piece, he reports that former Orioles first-rounder Matt Hobgood is trying to restart his career as a hitter. Hobgood, picked fifth overall in the 2009 draft, managed only 325 innings over parts of six pro seasons in the minors, as shoulder problems continually kept him off the mound. Hobgood still has a long ways to go in order to get properly re-acclimated to hitting, though at age 26, he doesn’t yet want to give up on his baseball dream.
- With a number of first basemen and designated hitters on the free agent market, Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith argues that the Blue Jays could be in no rush to fill the potential hole left by Edwin Encarnacion. Since the Jays can offer a spot on a contender and playing time in a hitter-friendly ballpark, they’re an attractive option for many 1B/DH types, which presents the possibility of Toronto landing a big bat at perhaps a bargain price. Nicholson-Smith also posits that the Jays could pursue Ian Desmond, Steve Pearce or Sean Rodriguez to fill their need for versatility. Among more outside-the-box ideas, Nicholson-Smith suggests the Jays could try to acquire J.D. Martinez from the Tigers, or take advantage of the thin pitching market by listening to offers on “anyone this side of Aaron Sanchez,” with Joe Biagini perhaps ready to step into the rotation if another starter is dealt.
AL Central Notes: Holland, Twins, White Sox, Hahn, Tigers
Here’s the latest from around the AL Central…
- The Twins will have representatives at Greg Holland‘s showcase tomorrow, 1500 ESPN’s Darren Wolfson reports (Twitter link). The Giants, Rangers, Yankees and Red Sox will also have scouts on hand at Holland’s showcase, while the Royals are also known to have interest in a reunion with their former closer and will probably also have personnel on hand. Holland missed all of 2016 recovering from Tommy John surgery, though he is already drawing a lot of attention from both contenders and rebuilding clubs like Minnesota as an intriguing bounce-back candidate.
- The Twins are expected to heavily expand the baseball operations department under Derek Falvey and Thad Levine, La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune writes. Minnesota had just 15 people working in baseball ops last year, as per the team’s press guide, while other teams had almost twice as many personnel working in a wide variety of roles. As you might expect given Falvey and Levine’s background with modern statistical analysis, the Twins’ analytics department is expected to receive particular attention.
- “White Sox GM Rick Hahn is open for business on just about his entire roster,” more than one general manager tells Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes noted in his recent Offseason Outlook piece about the Sox, the looming question over Chicago’s winter plans is whether the team intends to rebuild or try to contend in 2017, and Cafardo’s news would seem to hint at the former.
- With the Tigers looking to curb their free-spending ways, Fangraphs’ Craig Edwards explores the possibility of the team dealing Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander in a single blockbuster trade. This would allow the Tigers to reload on both payroll space and prospects for a quick return to contention by as soon as 2018. Assuming Verlander is willing to waive his no-trade protection, he’d get a lot of attention from other teams even with his big price tag ($84MM through 2019 and a $22MM vesting option for 2020) since starting pitching is so scarce this winter. As for Cabrera, who is coming off another tremendous season and is owed $220MM through 2023, Edwards writes that “the length of his contract means his trade value will never be higher than it is right now. Indeed, as soon as next season, he might be untradeable.” It’s a short list, of course, of teams that could afford to absorb Verlander and Cabrera’s deals even if Detroit kicked in some money; Edwards suggests that the Red Sox, Mariners, Rangers or Yankees could be fits.
Coppolella On Braves’ Offseason Plans
In each of the last two years, the Braves completed a major trade (dealing Jason Heyward in 2014 and Andrelton Simmons in 2015) soon after the completion of the GM Meetings. General manager John Coppolella tells David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that the club is prepared to again move quickly if another interesting offer comes along, saying that “we’re not going to wait around for any type of artificial date. I couldn’t care less about (waiting for) the Winter Meetings or whenever. The best time to make a trade is when a good trade is offered to you. We’re always trying to find ways to get better.” Here’s more from Coppolella…
- Starting pitching is clearly the Braves’ biggest winter need, though Atlanta is only looking for starters on short-term deals so none of the team’s young starters are blocked. Not that this winter’s free agent market has a true proven ace anyway, but even if it did, Coppolella noted that this type of pitcher wouldn’t be a target. “You don’t buy No. 1 starters, you grow them. You draft them, you develop them,” the GM said. “For us, it’s not efficient for us to go out and buy a No. 1 starter. Unless something drastically changes, you won’t see us going after a No. 1 starter.”
- Barring an offer of “something crazy” from another team, Coppolella isn’t looking to deal outfielders Ender Inciarte, Matt Kemp or Nick Markakis. Not only are the Braves “not out there shopping” these players, “in fact we’re not really even listening on guys. Because these are players that we really like and we feel like they fit us well on the field as well as off the field.”
- While Atlanta could pursue a catching upgrade in free agency, Coppolella reiterated that the team would be satisfied with its current Tyler Flowers/Anthony Recker tandem for 2017. The Braves could also look to trade for a catcher, though a deal to bring Brian McCann back to Atlanta seems unlikely. Earlier reports claimed the Yankees asked for either Inciarte or Mike Foltynewicz as part of a trade for McCann, and O’Brien reports that, in fact, New York wanted both Inciarte and Foltynewicz. Needless to say, talks didn’t get very far.
NL Central Notes: Cubs, Montero, Mozeliak, Stearns
The Cubs‘ celebration of their World Series win took them to the Saturday Night Live stage, as Anthony Rizzo, Dexter Fowler and David Ross made two cameo appearances on last night’s show. The players first appeared in a sketch as (of all things) dancers at a bachelorette party, and the trio returned later in the show to sing “Go Cubs Go” alongside SNL legend and Cubs superfan Bill Murray. Since Fowler officially elected to become a free agent last evening (slightly before SNL went on the air), this may mark the last time we see the outfielder in a Cubs uniform. Here’s the latest from Wrigleyville and elsewhere around the NL Central…
- In a recent interview on ESPN 1000’s Waddle and Silvy Show (hat tip to Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune), Miguel Montero admitted that he frustrated by his diminished playing time during the season and wished he had received more input from Joe Maddon about his role on the team. Montero appeared in 86 games and hit .216/.327/.357 over 284 plate appearances, with Ross and Willson Contreras getting an increasingly large share of the catching workload throughout the year and in the postseason. Though Montero is owed $14MM next season, he’ll likely still be limited to backup duties behind Contreras and possibly Kyle Schwarber if the Cubs still consider the slugger an option behind the plate. As Gonzalez notes, Montero’s large salary will make him a tough sell on the trade market unless the Cubs are willing to eat some of the money.
- Exercising Jaime Garcia‘s club option gives the Cardinals rotation depth and some possible breathing room to make a trade, GM John Mozeliak tells Benjamin Hochman of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. “As we look to the trade market as we get to the GM meetings, we want to be able to not have our hands tied. For example, if we had not picked up the option, and all of a sudden we feel there’s a trade that might make sense for us that’s going to have to include a starter, then we’re left with having to backfill,” Mozeliak said. “Given what Jaime was able to accomplish last year, clearly it didn’t end the way he would’ve liked it to, but he still ate a lot of valuable innings for us. When I think about what’s out there on the free-agent market, I still think it’s an asset to have….And what if we have to move someone else? It would be nice to still have the depth in our rotation.” Hochman figures the Cards will be more active on the trade market than in free agency this winter, and he thinks the team will look at upgrading the defense in the wake of club-wide defensive metrics ranging from middling to below-average.
- Brewers GM David Stearns doesn’t expect as busy an offseason as last winter’s roster overhaul, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel writes. “I think the amount of transactional volume that we had over the past 12 months was probably unprecedented. It would be tough for me to imagine that we would see a similar-type volume,” Stearns said. The GM also spoke of the importance of keeping a flexible 40-man roster, so the club has the opportunity to make additions if they unexpectedly arise.
Indians Decline Option On Coco Crisp
SUNDAY: The Indians have officially declined Crisp’s option.
FRIDAY: The Indians have informed outfielder Coco Crisp that they will be declining his $13MM option for the 2017 season, tweets Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer. He’ll instead receive a $750K buyout and hit the open market in search of a new contract this winter.
Crisp, who turned 37 three days ago, returned to the Indians in an August trade with the Athletics. While he struggled for Cleveland in a reserve capacity down the stretch, Crisp did deliver a pair of important postseason home runs for the Tribe. Overall on the regular season, the switch-hitter recorded a .231/.302/.397 slash line that’s a bit better than it would appear on the surface due to the fact that so many of his at-bats came in Oakland’s cavernous Coliseum. Nonetheless, that line did check in below the league average, as did his defensive ratings in center field (though his left field work still received solid reviews from Defensive Runs Saved).
It’s worth noting that Crisp, though, did still tally 13 homers and 10 stolen bases, thereby demonstrating that he still has the blend of pop and speed that have made him such a solid contributor over the course of his 15-year Major League career. He also fared considerably better as a left-handed hitter than he did as a right-handed bat, so it certainly seems that he could still contribute to a big league club in the corner outfield in a part-time capacity at the very least.
Dexter Fowler Declines Mutual Option
SATURDAY: Fowler is now officially a free agent, per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times (Twitter link).
FRIDAY: Cubs center fielder Dexter Fowler will decline his half of a $9MM mutual option and re-enter the free-agent market, Fowler himself said on ESPN’s Sportscenter last night (via ESPN News Services). The news comes as little surprise on the heels of a career year for Fowler, who should be one of the top outfielders and top all-around free agents on this year’s open market.
“I’m definitely going to be a free agent, but hopefully it happens a little bit quicker than last year,” said the 30-year-old switch-hitting outfielder. “You can’t control what goes on, but I loved my time in Chicago and I’m definitely not counting them out, but we’ll see what God has planned for us now.”
Fowler, who will turn 31 next March, batted .276/.393/.447 with 13 homers and 13 steals in 125 games/551 plate appearances for the Cubs in the regular season before kicking in a trio of postseason home runs on during the Cubs’ curse-breaking World Series run. He’s a surefire candidate to receive a qualifying offer from Chicago, which would give him a one-year, $17.2MM offer to return to the team, but based on Fowler’s comments it seems safe to say he’ll be rejecting the QO to again test free agency.
That’s familiar territory for Fowler, who rejected a QO from the Cubs last winter and spent much of the offseason languishing on the free-agent market. While he reportedly came close to a three-year deal with the Orioles in February — many credible reporters indicated that the deal was agreed to, though Fowler’s agent vehemently denied that rumor after the fact — Fowler ultimately settled for a one-year deal to return to Chicago instead. That was a surprising development, considering Fowler entered the offseason seemingly poised to score a strong free-agent payday. Some teams weren’t willing to part with the draft pick required to sign him, however, and that could again prove true this winter. However, it also seems less likely, as Fowler is now coming off the two best seasons of his career and has seemingly erased some concerns about his defense in center field. Fowler recently told USA Today’s Bob Nightengale that teams last winter weren’t convinced of his ability to play center field, but he altered his positioning this year and drew slightly above-average marks from both Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Runs Saved for the first time in his career.
Alternatively, if Fowler is open to playing an outfield corner, his market would almost certainly grow even more robust, as a number of contending clubs with money to spend (e.g. the Giants, Blue Jays, Dodgers and Rangers) could look to the free-agent market to find help in the outfield corners. It was genuinely surprising that a long-term deal did not materialize for Fowler earlier in the offseason last winter, but it’ll come as even more of a shock if he’s not able to lock down a lucrative multi-year commitment in the 2016-17 offseason. From my vantage point, Fowler should be able to land at least a four-year contract this winter even after rejecting the qualifying offer.