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Archives for January 2017

White Sox To Sign Geovany Soto

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JAN. 6: Soto’s chances of making the big league roster indeed appear to be quite strong. FanRag’s Jon Heyman tweets that the contract includes not only a $2MM base salary but a club option for the 2018 season, lending credence to the notion that the Sox are banking on Soto more than the typical veteran minor league signee.

JAN. 5: The White Sox have struck a minor-league deal with free-agent catcher Geovany Soto, according to Bruce Levine of 670thescore.com (via Twitter). Soto, who has played previously in Chicago with both the White Sox and Cubs, will turn 34 in two weeks’ time.

After providing the South Siders with a .219/.301/.406 batting line over 210 plate appearances in 2015, Soto returned to the open market in search of a new opportunity. He ended up landing with the Angels on a one-year, $2.8MM contract.

This time, Soto will have to earn his way onto a roster in camp. Though he hit quite well in Los Angeles — .269/.321/.487 — Soto managed only 86 trips to the plate in 26 games. The problem was a knee issue that hindered him throughout the year and ultimately forced him to the DL for good in mid-August.

It seems reasonable to expect that, as Levine notes, Soto will have a solid chance at taking an active roster spot. The top two catchers on the depth chart, at present, are Omar Narvaez and Kevan Smith — each of whom made his major-league debut in 2016. Alfredo Gonzalez and Roberto Pena perhaps also represent options.

Bobby Wilson Agrees To Minor League Deal With Dodgers

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Veteran catcher Bobby Wilson has agreed to a minor league deal with the Dodgers that comes with a $1MM base salary should he make the big league roster, reports Jon Heyman of FanRag Spots (via Twitter).

The 33-year-old Wilson, a client of Jet Sports, split the 2016 season between the Tigers, Rangers and Rays, batting a collective .237/.270/.355 with seven homers in 251 plate appearances. Wilson has appeared in the Majors in eight of the past nine seasons, with most of his experience coming as a backup in the Angels organization. He struggled in terms of throwing out runners last year (17 percent) but has otherwise done so at a roughly league-average rate throughout his big league career. He’s also consistently drawn average or better pitch-framing marks in throughout his Major League and minor league tenure, per Baseball Prospectus. Prior to his deal with L.A., Wilson had been connected to both the Blue Jays and the Rays.

The Dodgers are largely set at catcher in the Majors, with Yasmani Grandal and Austin Barnes set to split playing time behind the dish. Barnes does have experience as an infielder as well, though, and did play both second base and third base in the Majors last year, so perhaps there’s an opportunity for the Dodgers to creatively work all three onto the roster. Wilson may also simply head to Triple-A to serve as a veteran depth option, and he could conceivably land elsewhere this spring as injuries with other clubs create new opportunities.

Rangers, Travis Snider Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Rangers and outfielder Travis Snider have agreed to a minor league contract, tweets Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports. Snider’s deal will pay him a base salary of $1MM if he makes the big league roster in Texas.

Snider, a CAA Sports client, spent the 2016 season with Kansas City’s Triple-A affiliate and batted a disappointing .245/.340/.350 in 322 plate appearances. The former first-round pick once rated among the game’s top 10 prospects, per both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus, but that potential was never fulfilled. Snider debuted as a 20-year-old back in 2008 and held his own through parts of three seasons from ages 20-22, hitting .255/.318/.446 with 25 homers in 675 plate appearances.

While Snider’s production tailed off in the coming years, he did enjoy a very nice 2014 campaign in Pittsburgh, hitting .264/.338/.438 with 13 home runs in 359 plate appearances. But, a trade to the Orioles that offseason yielded more struggles, and Snider didn’t appear in the Majors at all last year.

For the Rangers, Snider provides a depth option with MLB experience that can compete for a bench job in Spring Training or head to Triple-A and wait in the wings in the event of an injury. At present, the Rangers project to utilize Nomar Mazara, Carlos Gomez and Shin-Soo Choo in the outfield, though the possibility of adding an outfielder and shifting Choo to the DH slot does exist. Texas is also likely to bring Josh Hamilton back on a minor league contract, so Snider will presumably be competing with him this spring as well.

C.J. Wilson Progressing Through Throwing Program

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Free agent lefty C.J. Wilson, who missed the entire 2016 season due to shoulder surgery that repaired fraying in his labrum and rotator cuff, began a throwing program last month, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. The longtime Rangers and Angels hurler could work out for big league clubs at some point in February, Rosenthal adds.

Certainly, there’s cause for teams to express concern about a 36-year-old pitcher that has undergone not only the aforementioned shoulder surgery but also surgery to remove bone spurs from his pitching elbow since last setting foot on a Major League mound. However, Wilson has a lengthy track record of quality results in the American League West, and most recently pitched to a 3.89 ERA across 132 innings with the 2015 Halos.

Though he’s battled injuries in recent years, Wilson was a durable workhorse in Texas and Anaheim from 2010-14, averaging 33 starts and 204 innings per season while compiling a 3.56 earned run average with 7.9 K/9 against 3.8 BB/9. He’s traditionally displayed strong ground-ball tendencies, and while he’s long carried some degree of platoon split, he’s held right-handed batters in check well enough to maintain a rotation role since 2010. At worst, Wilson’s excellent track record against lefties (career .199/.284/.286 slash line) would seem to suggest that he could function as a bullpen piece if he’s able to prove healthy enough to return to the Majors this season. However, while Wilson is no stranger to the bullpen, having spent the first five years of his career working primarily in relief, I’d imagine a number of clubs will want to first give him a shot to return to the rotation.

It’s unlikely that any interested club would simply pencil Wilson into a rotation spot, but if he’s healthy enough to showcase for interested clubs next month, he should have the opportunity to audition for a team in Spring Training. Wilson has been linked to the Marlins on multiple occasions this winter, but while they still need a southpaw in the bullpen, they’ve since added Edinson Volquez and Jeff Locke to their rotation picture.

Brandon Phillips Blocked November Trade To Braves

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JAN. 6: Jim Bowden of ESPN and MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM cites a Reds source in reporting that there’s still a possibility of a trade that would send Phillips to Atlanta, with the Reds picking up the majority of the money that remains on the contract. He adds, though, that Reds executives “acknowledge that they made promises and assurances to Phillips that they are not living up to” and will need to work through those issues with Phillips before a deal. Moving Phillips would allow the Reds to clear an easier path to playing time for Jose Peraza and potentially for Dilson Herrera as well.

JAN. 5: The Reds had worked out a deal that would have sent second baseman Brandon Phillips to the Braves, but he utilized his no-trade protection to scuttle the arrangement, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Phillips’s no-trade clause previously got in the way of potential trades last winter.

While Phillips is a Georgia native who (per Rosenthal) owns a home in Atlanta, he still wasn’t amenable to the move. There was no discussion of an extension this time around, according to the report; the Braves would not have been interested, and Phillips made his view clear before that subject was even broached.

This latest episode raises the question whether the 35-year-old Phillips will ever be a movable asset for Cincinnati, which had been set to retain “a significant portion” of his $14MM salary as part of the proposed trade. He’s in the final year of his contract, and it seems all but inevitable that he’ll land elsewhere after the 2017 season. But Phillips is still holding firm on his desire to remain in Cincinnati as something of a “matter of principle,” per Rosenthal, who says that Phillips would only be willing to sign onto a deal if “certain, unspecified issues” are dealt with by any acquiring team.

While Phillips is more than entitled to utilize the no-trade clause (which he earned through ten-and-five rights) in whatever manner he chooses, it’s certainly something of an odd situation. The Reds have a variety of young infielders they’d surely like to expose more to the majors in the coming year, which could bite into Phillips’s own playing time.

Long a productive regular who combined excellent glovework with solid overall offensive production, Phillips has declined of late. Since the start of the 2014 season, he has slashed .285/.319/.396, which amounts to slightly below-average (94 OPS+) work at the plate. Phillips has returned to running more, though his 14 stolen bases in 2016 came at the cost of being caught on eight other attempts. And he’s still good for about a dozen home runs per year. The most concerning change, perhaps, comes on the defensive side. Phillips has long rated as a well-above-average defender at second, but took a bit of a step back in 2015 and drew negative metrics in his most recent season.

Still, Phillips would represent a steadying presence in the right organization — particularly, one that has taken a positive view through recent scouting assessments. If he can bounce back in the field, there’s reason to hope that he could put up a season worthy of regular play despite the fact that he was worth less than one win above replacement last year. A right-handed hitter, Phillips has never carried drastic platoon splits and actually fared better against same-handed pitching in 2016.

Though it’s still theoretically possible that the sides could revisit a deal, Rosenthal says that’s not seen as a likely scenario. When Rodriguez inked his deal in late November, that added a second-base-capable, right-handed bat and perhaps absorbed some of the salary that might have been allocated to Phillips.

“We explore a myriad of trade opportunities,” Braves GM John Coppolella tells MLB.com’s Mark Bowman, “some which make more progress than others, and some which get more media attention than others. Trades aren’t done until they are done.”

That being said, it’s still imaginable that Atlanta will consider moving to bolster its mix at second and third base. Rodriguez has experience at both spots, creating some flexibility. But it’s far from clear that Adonis Garcia will be a worthwhile semi-regular at the hot corner. The left-handed-hitting Jace Peterson is also on hand, of course, and perhaps top prospect Ozzie Albies will be ready sooner than later, but the Braves have already made several 2017-centric moves, attempting to improve the near-term outlook without sacrificing the future.

If Atlanta does take a look at adding another infielder, there are any number of trade targets that it could pursue. And the open market still features a variety of second and third basemen that might conceivably be of interest. That includes righty hitters such as Aaron Hill and Trevor Plouffe, as well as lefty bats like Luis Valbuena, Chase Utley, Stephen Drew, Chris Coghlan, and — of course — perennial favorite Kelly Johnson.

*An earlier version of this post incorrectly suggested that Phillips’s decision was influenced by the signing of Rodriguez.

Minor MLB Transactions: 1/6/17

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Here are the day’s minor moves from around the league…

  • Right-hander Zach Stewart has agreed to a minor league deal with the Orioles, writes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com (the news was first reported by Korean media outlet Naver Sports — hat tip to Dan Kurtz of MyKBO.net). Once a well-regarded pitching prospect in the Reds organization, the 30-year-old Stewart is now a well-traveled veteran who will hope to return to the Majors for the first time since 2012 this coming season. He’s spent the past two years with the NC Dinos of the Korea Baseball Organization and reportedly drew interest from the KBO’s Hanwha Eagles before agreeing to the deal with Baltimore. Stewart logged a 3.76 ERA with 217 strikeouts against 80 walks in 260 2/3 innings across the past two seasons in the KBO and has a career 4.08 ERA in parts of six Triple-A seasons. He’s also totaled 103 big league innings but struggled to a 6.82 ERA with 5.6 K/9 against 1.9 BB/9 in that time.

Market Notes: Jays, Bruce, A’s, Plouffe, Dozier, Bautista, Trumbo, Lefty Relievers, Lewis

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Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports argues that the Blue Jays may have misread the market for power bats this winter. In the case of Toronto, he suggests, the team ought to have been more patient with Edwin Encarnacion. By moving quickly to give a three-year deal to Kendrys Morales after Encarnacion declined to take the team’s early-offseason offer, the Jays may have spent much more than necessary to land a player of Morales’s quality while also tying their hands on Encarnacion, who ended up signing for one year and $20MM less than Toronto had reportedly offered.

  • The Mets, too, might have erred in their approach on Jay Bruce. He now seems a superfluous piece after the re-signing of Yoenis Cespedes, and Rosenthal says that he expects New York will need to pay down part of Bruce’s $13MM salary to deal him. The team picked up that option in large part to insure against the loss of Cespedes; a team source notes that insurance “doesn’t come for free,” and Rosenthal notes that the decision may have improved their bargaining position with their star free agent. But perhaps a greater recognition of the flood of sluggers would have led the team to choose an alternate path to protecting itself in the event of a departure of Cespedes.
  • As they continue to look to bolster their lineup, the Athletics are showing interest in free-agent third baseman Trevor Plouffe, per Rosenthal. He’d presumably be a value-focused addition to the overall mix at third and first base. Of course, Oakland is also said to be looking at Mark Trumbo, so it seems the organization is still casting a fairly wide net.
  • While there has been a suggestion that the Dodgers won’t form a package around Jose De Leon to pry Brian Dozier from the Twins, preferring instead to pursue a one-for-one deal, Rosenthal writes that Los Angeles is “willing to include other prospects” to get something done. Of course, it could well be that the issue isn’t so much the inclusion of some other pre-MLB players — surely, the Dodgers could find some expendable pieces to part with — so much as the question whether any are seen by Minnesota as adding significant value.
  • Jon Heyman of Fan Rag provides a lengthy list of the winners and losers in the open-market action to date, though that can still change with a lot of free agents left and perhaps some trades still to be swung. As for some of those still-unsigned open-market players, Heyman provides a few notes. Jose Bautista’s representatives “circled back” to the Orioles to gauge interest, but it still seems that Baltimore isn’t interested. And the Blue Jays “do not seem anxious” to strike a deal with the veteran. Meanwhile, the O’s remain involved on Trumbo.
  • Heyman further notes that there remains robust demand for left-handed relievers. He lists the Mets, Yankees, Indians, and Blue Jays as teams still looking at southpaws. Jerry Blevins, Boone Logan, Travis Wood, and J.P. Howell are among the established left-handed options that remain available.
  • It’s unlikely that the Rangers will bring back veteran righty Colby Lewis, as Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports. Though “the door’s open,” per GM Jon Daniels, he adds that he doesn’t “foresee anything happening at this point” with Lewis. Texas would be interested only in a minor-league arrangement, it seems, due in part to questions over Lewis’s health outlook.

Arbitration Breakdown: Jacob deGrom & Carlos Martinez

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Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. Click here to view all of the 2017 projections.

Ever since Dontrelle Willis received $4.35 million in arbitration in 2006, it has been hard for first-time eligible starting pitchers to top his salary. The record stood for ten years, until last year Dallas Keuchel took home $7.25 million following a Cy Young Award-winning season. In the decade since Willis received his record first-year salary for starting pitchers, many pitchers have come extremely close to hitting his $4.35 million or have actually hit it. David Price matched Willis’ $4.35 million in 2012 and Shelby Miller did so last year. Seven other starting pitchers have earned between $4 and $4.35 million in the last decade as well.

Other pitchers who would likely have exceeded Willis’ record received multi-year deals, which usually removes them from consideration when looking for comparables. Tim Lincecum and Clayton Kershaw were both coming off Cy Young seasons when they received multi-year deals, and Lance Lynn and Cole Hamels also received multi-year deals and subsequently missed out on breaking the record as well. Many elite starting pitchers are worthwhile candidates for multi-year deals, so it is not surprising that few of them actually receive one-year deals and become comparables. Among pitchers in the last decade with 30 career wins, 450 career innings, career ERAs below 3.50 and at least 100 platform year innings, five of nine signed multi-year deals before reaching agreement on one-year deals for their first year of salary arbitration.

Modeling arbitration salaries is obviously something that requires much precision, but the psychological barrier of $4.35 million is something that emotionless mathematical modeling will miss. As a result, I have written several articles over the years in which I explained that certain pitchers who were projected just over $4.35 million probably would not actually do so. Jacob deGrom and Carlos Martinez may be two such pitchers today, although Martinez is more likely to best that amount.

Jacob deGrom is coming off a mediocre platform year (for arbitration purposes) where he only won seven games amidst throwing 148 innings. Although his ERA was 3.04, lack of counting stats is likely to hurt his arbitration case. His career numbers may offset this—he has 30 career wins and a 2.74 ERA across 479.1 innings and has struck out 492 batters. He also won Rookie of the Year in 2014. His projection is $4.5 million, although I think there is good reason to believe that he will fall short of this.

Carlos Martinez has a much stronger case, and is projected to earn $5.3 million. He went 16-9 with a 3.04 ERA in 195.1 innings with 174 strikeouts, and has a career 34-21 record with a 3.32 ERA in 492.2 innings with 466 strikeouts. Few pitchers can match his performance, and he may be able to top the old record of $4.35 million, although he will come nowhere near the new record. The peculiarity of Martinez’ case is that is that there are no comparable pitchers with salaries in the range between $4.35 and $7.25, so he will be filling in some empty space if he does exceed the old Willis number.

In the last five years, there have only been five pitchers who had 25 career wins, 400 career innings, 400 career strikeouts, and career ERAs under 3.50 who did not sign multi-year deals. All five received between $3.97 and $4.35 million in arbitration. These include Shelby Miller at $4.35 million, Matt Harvey at $4.32 million, Doug Fister and Alex Cobb both at $4 million, and Stephen Strasburg at $3.97 million.

It is difficult to see a good reason why Jacob deGrom would earn above or below this range as a result. Although he had slightly fewer innings than all of them, Doug Fister in 2013 was coming off just 161.2 innings and Alex Cobb was coming off 166.1 innings. Both won 10 games, more than deGrom’s seven, but neither had a Rookie of the Year Award under his belt and deGrom’s career ERA is lower than both of theirs. He also has more strikeouts than either had in their careers at this point as well. As a result, I think he will probably top their $4 million salaries.

I think deGrom will struggle to top Matt Harvey’s $4.32 million from last season, though. Harvey had a better career ERA and a better platform ERA, along with many more platform innings. Something around $4.2 million seems likely for deGrom—below his $4.5 million projection.

Martinez, on the other hand, does seem like a likely candidate to top the five aforementioned starters’ earnings. None of them had more than 13 platform year wins, and Martinez had 16. His 3.04 ERA is in the middle of the pack for the group, but his 195.1 innings total is only bested by Miller. His 34 career wins are bested by Alex Cobb, but exceed the other four starters. His innings and strikeouts are similar to them as well.

All things considered, he has a clear cut case to beat the $4.35 million mark. Comparing him to Shelby Miller alone, he went 16-9 as compared with Miller’s 6-17 in his platform year. His platform year ERA was nearly identical and he threw only 10 less innings but had three more strikeouts than Miller. In his career, he has two more wins than Miller but 14 fewer losses. He also has a relatively similar ERA. Although he has thrown about eighty fewer innings, he has only struck out seventeen fewer batters. Martinez is likely to succeed in asking for a number higher than Miller’s $4.35. But given that the main difference is ten platform year wins, I believe he will probably not get the $5.3 million projection my model estimates. I think something between $4.5 and $5 million is likely for Martinez.

Both of these pitchers are projected for slightly more than they will probably earn. The symbolic barrier at $4.35 million is still a factor despite Keuchel’s new record, which was set up by his 232 innings of 2.48 ERA pitching and the hardware to match. Because of that, the model is likely to miss on starting pitchers near that until that symbolic barrier has been passed enough times.

Minor MLB Transactions: 1/5/17

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Here are the day’s minor moves:

  • First baseman/outfielder Ji-Man Choi has been outrighted to Triple-A by the Angels after clearing waivers, the team announced. He had been designated for assignment recently. Choi, 25, hit a robust .346/.434/.527 over 227 plate appearances at the highest level of the minors and earned his first trip to the majors in 2016. He put up a meager .170/.271/.339 slash there, however, over his 129 trips to the plate. The left-handed hitter could still compete for a bench spot in camp, particularly if Albert Pujols is slow to return from his offseason surgery.
  • The Rangers have added catcher Steven Lerud on a minor-league deal, per a club announcement. He’ll receive an invitation to MLB camp this spring. Lerud, 32, saw very brief MLB action in both 2012 and 2013, but has plied his trade in the upper minors almost exclusively since 2009. Last year, playing in the Giants organization, he hit .229/.385/.288 over his 214 plate appearances, drawing 38 walks against 50 strikeouts but launching just one home run.

Spokesperson: Alex Rodriguez Does Not Intend To Play In 2017

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Ron Berkowitz, he spokesperson for Alex Rodriguez says that his client intends to come to Spring Training, but as a special adviser rather than a player, as Christian Red of the New York Daily News reports. Rodriguez had previously announced that he would not play again in 2016, with reports suggesting he did not have plans to attempt a future comeback, though this is perhaps the clearest indication yet that the 41-year-old is likely beyond his playing days.

Since wrapping up his tenure with the Yankees with an agreement that gave him an ongoing role with the organization even as he was released from the roster, Rodriguez has taken a well-reviewed turn as a postseason baseball analyst. Now, he’s “looking forward to heading to spring training to work with the young guys as he has said all along,” per Berkowitz.

While it may seem like a needless formality to address Rodriguez’s playing situation, it had been at least somewhat ambiguous as to whether he’d consider trying to make a return. And there’s little question that organizations would consider bringing him into camp. Though A-Rod posted an anemic .200/.247/.351 batting line in his final season in the majors, he’s also a historically great player who slashed .250/.356/.486 and hit 33 home runs in 2015.

Indeed, the Marlins acknowledged having some interest in the long-time star last August. Miami and other organizations might be intrigued to see whether there’s anything left in the tank, with the added benefit of bringing in a major draw who is just four dingers away from becoming just the fourth player ever to hit 700 in his career. And it certainly doesn’t hurt that New York will be footing the bill for Rodriguez (at $21MM).

It seems, though, that such a dramatic effort will not be undertaken. No doubt, it would have drawn an inordinate amount of attention, if not some controversy, given Rodriguez’s high profile and PED-filled past. Instead, as organizations prepare to open camp in advance of the 2017 season, the veteran will draw cameras during his stint as an instructor.

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