Today marked the deadline for players to receive one-year qualifying offers at this year’s rate of $17.4MM. Now that the dust has settled, we know that nine players will weigh those decisions for the next ten days.
That falls on the lower end of the spectrum, matching the prior low from 2012 (the first season that the QO system was in operation). On the high side, twenty players received qualifying offers in 2015. But that was also the first year in which any players accepted the one-year offer, which may itself have had an impact on future teams deciding whether to issue it. Last year, after all, there were only ten recipients. At the end of the day, of course, the actual players and teams involved matter most, and that can vary quite a bit from year to year based on a wide variety of factors.
New rules went into effect this winter, so you’ll want to review those to understand how it’ll work this time around. Those rules likely will continue to dampen the use of the QO on the margins, both through the reduction of draft compensation for issuing teams and by the prohibition on multiple QOs for the same player. Of course, it’s worth bearing in mind that every free agent class is different — and that every team situation is as well.
Here are this year’s free agents who were extended a qualifying offer by their teams (in alphabetical order):
- Jake Arrieta, SP, Cubs (source)
- Lorenzo Cain, OF, Royals (post)
- Alex Cobb, SP, Rays (post)
- Wade Davis, RP, Cubs (source)
- Greg Holland, RP, Rockies (source)
- Eric Hosmer, 1B, Royals (post)
- Lance Lynn, SP, Cardinals (post)
- Mike Moustakas, 3B, Royals (post)
- Carlos Santana, 1B, Indians (post)
Several players that were discussed as QO candidates ended up being bypassed — which, generally, is a good thing for their earning power in free agency. Zack Cozart of the Reds (post), Andrew Cashner of the Rangers (post), and Logan Morrison of the Rays (post) were among the closest calls that went against the offer.
I think Santana should accept. Everyone else is an easy decline
Santana has a career war of about 24. Hosmer 14. Santana will get 4 years on the open market.
The 1B/DH market is pretty flooded again, and theres no demand, again. I think him taking 17M would be smart. I don’t think we’re going to see multiple 1B get multiple year deals. Why give up the pick for Santana when you can sign someone else without picks attached?
True, but the 1B/DH market will be even more saturated next year with the monster free agent class. However I still expect a quiet winter for most free agents as teams wait for next offseason
which is why you take the 17M and enter next year as the best 1B without a trade pick attached
draft pick attached*
Santana’s better? Santana fetching a 2/30 type deal would be a worst-case scenario, I’d think, no? Is that worth forgoing the guaranteed 1/17.4 for the chance to reach 3/45+? I’d think so. I doubt any accept. The deterrent being so much less really makes a difference.
Zero chance that Santana accepts the QO. He will easily get a 3/4 year deal.
3/45 is better than 1/17… he will get at least that.
I’m not so sure. How many teams need a 1B/DH? How many of those are willing to pay $15 million a year? Look at the MLBTR free agent signings. They have the Royals signing Hosmer and Indians signing Santana. If the two teams don’t sign their own players how much are they willing to pay a different 1B/DH?
They have the Red Sox signing both J.D. Martinez and Logan Morrison to big money. Will they really sign both? They have the Angels giving Yonder Alonso $11 million a year but the Angels seem likely to spend their money on other positions.
They have the Mariners giving Lucas Duda only 1 year and $6 million. That leaves Danny Valencia, Mark Reynolds, Mike Napoli, and Mitch Moreland homeless. Am I really giving Carlos Santana $45 million over 3 years when I can get Duda for $6 million?
Yes
You can’t get Duda for 1/$6m. That was one of the dumbest picks on the list I think.
I mean, Chris Carter signed for like 3M, Moreland signed for 5.5M, Pedro Alvarez got a MiLB deal, same with Mark Reynolds.
Theres no demand for 1B
He might want a longer contract because of age
The Rays probably don’t want Cobb to accept the offer. They are not in a position to pay a slightly above average starter that kind of money. However, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Cobb take it and take a gamble.
Agreed. A second year proving he’s fully healed from the tj surgery could still net him 4/48.
If he accepts they probably look to deal him
Can’t be dealt until June
I know that’s a rule. But I’m sure that’s not a rule when it’s you’re own free agent
Nope. Still a rule.
Wrong your btdubs.
Win-Win for Cleveland. If he rejects it and leaves they get a pick after the 1st round. If he takes it, he’ll bridge the gap to Bobby Bradley in 2019. That’s a good situation all around
More like ‘Loss-Loss-Loss.’ Am I right?
Ouch
Only get a pick after 1st round if he signs a deal with over $50M guaranteed
Not if the Mariners pick him up….IF the M’s pick up Santana, they will have to give up a 3rd rounder
Five Royals from the 2015 team were offered a QO
2014*
Nevermind you’re right, Holland got hurt mid-season ’15. Sorry long day.
i think lynn will take the QO. the numbers were trending in the wrong direction, notably kos and hr per 9. missing 2016 due to injury, i think lynn has another year to prove he wont go down to injury or the numbers fall off on some large contract.
He’s already said through his agents he’s turning it down as the Cardinals didn’t even try to negotiate a contract this season.
Stupid move by the Cardinals I think, but they understood that Lynn would want more money than he’s worth and we’ll probably see him get it.
How is it a stupid move if they know 100% that he will turn it down?
he meant letting Lynn walk
I’m surprised LoMo and Cozart didn’t get hit with them. Cozart wouldn’t accept I don’t think, and LoMo might have, but he still would’ve been movable if he had.
This was the best thing that could have happened to Cozart. Best of luck to him. Due to a lack of demand at his position, a QO would have crippled his market, virtually forcing him to accept, which is probably why Cincy didn’t offer one.
I wish the QO would just turn into free draft compensation after the first or second round and go back to an A/B system that didn’t take away from any other teams.
It’s not like a draft pick is a guaranteed replacement, and even a high round pick will still take years to develop into a major leaguer most of the time. The Royals are still going to be years away from competing if they get 3 can’t miss dudes to replace the guys who are almost guaranteed to walk away.
I think we’re sorta moving in that direction where teams mostly build through the draft and trades instead of free agency and manage to hold on to their quality players through their prime more often than they buy someone from another team but the current qualifying offer system sure ain’t the right way to do it.
Which I think is a very good trend to see in baseball.
I thought Holland already declined his offer.
Different issue
Arrieta wasn’t even worth 2WAR this season. Boras is on crack and/or PED’s if he thinks he is going to get 6 years. When will MLB start testing agents? lol
Royals need to jump on LoMo!
Arrieta should accept. He won’t get much more than a year. At most he’ll get 21-23mil. Which is 6 mil more a year but if they back load it. The cubs can lock up Bryant next winter and then extend Rizzo give a big raise to Contreas Russell and Baez too.
On the real I hope the cubs re-sign Wade Davis he’s gonna be cheaper than Greg Holland.
If they don’t resign Davis it’s gonna be a long season. Best closer they have had in years. Pay him
Boras won’t let Arrieta accept, especially if a dumb team like the Rangers will probably throw 100 million at him…
On the real though, he’s going to get 5 years. What are you smoking?
WOW, 5 of 9 QOs to Royals 2014 alumni.
Moustakas and Hosmer are probably both on the Angels short list. They are in desperate need of a third baseman. And Cron hits more like a pitcher 60% of the season, than a first baseman. Spare me the, it’s because of Scioscia why Cron can’t hit. That was the same tired excuse use for JB Shuck, Grant Green, Hank Conger and Dallas McPherson. Yeah they all really tore it up once the Angels let them go.
The Angels will make a run do the Moose but not sure if they will pursue Hosmer, and the team
Needs to pickup one reliable arm for 2018. With so many of our arms coming off long DL and TJ surgeries, we don’t know how many are going to be OK by the start of the season…
The Angels will have about 60 to 65 million before they hit the luxury tax. That is with the players they have under contract and after Arbitration players. If they trade Cron that would free up another 3 to 5 million. They could get Moose and Hosmore sign Chatwood and get a Legitimate closer. And still come under the luxury tax Threshold.
A run for the Moose… I meant …
That would be good news but It looked like Hosmer is Red Sox bound and the Moose will be a bidding war between the Halos and the Yankees… Even if we loose Hosmer to the BoSox, we can still get a Tier 1 arm and a decent closer … let’s see how that plays out …
Most guys who accepted the offer in past seasons, were factoring in their market discounted by the 1st round draft pick compensation. That’s not around. Santana is coming off his best year in the last few, and has his best chance at a multi-year contract even if less than 16 mm annually. I think he declines.. Surprised not to see Darvish on the list.