Archives for January 2018

Free Agent Profile: Alex Cobb

By Steve Adams | January 16, 2018 at 1:41pm CDT

Alex Cobb looked every bit the part of a rising star in the Rays’ rotation before Tommy John surgery wiped him out for nearly two full seasons. His first year back was successful enough that he rejected a one-year, $17.4MM qualifying offer from Tampa Bay in order to test the waters of free agency.

Pros / Strengths

Cobb has a career 3.50 ERA, and fielding-independent metrics like FIP (3.68), xFIP (3.62) and SIERA (3.73) all largely support that bottom-line run prevention mark. He’s long displayed above-average control, never averaging more than three walks per nine innings pitched in a full season, and the 2017 campaign was his best in that regard (2.2 BB/9). Home runs have also never been a big problem for Cobb. That was true in 2017 as well, as he allowed a manageable 1.1 HR/9 in a season that saw MLB hitters put the ball over the fence at increasing levels.

If Cobb’s overall 2017 numbers don’t immediately stand out and generate excitement, it’s perhaps worth looking at the strong fashion in which he finished the campaign. It’s only seven starts, but in his final 38 1/3 innings of the year, Cobb’s K/BB numbers took off. In that time, he averaged a dramatically improved 8.9 K/9 against 1.9 BB/9 with a 54.1 percent ground-ball rate. His 38-to-8 K/BB ratio in that time was nothing short of excellent. For a pitcher that was still trying to distance himself from Tommy John surgery and rediscover the form he showed in 2013-14 (2.82 ERA, 8.2 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9, 56% grounder rate in 309 2/3 innings), that was a heartening finish.

Cobb is also the youngest of the top starting pitchers on the free agent market. He’ll pitch all of the 2018 regular season at the age of 30, not turning 31 until October 7. Jake Arrieta, meanwhile, will turn 32 in March; Yu Darvish will be 32 come August; and Lance Lynn turns 31 in May.

Cons / Weaknesses

Cobb’s finish to the season was nothing short of excellent, but the first 22 starts he made in 2017 were decidedly pedestrian. His 3.89 ERA in that time was solid, to be sure, as was his 2.3 BB/9 mark. However, Cobb was carrying a paltry 5.7 K/9 through his first 22 starts of the year and averaging 91.4 mph on his fastball. (Those marks jumped to 8.2 and 92.4 in his strong finish to the season; Cobb has previously exhibited similar intra-season velo gains.) Cobb’s 4.43 FIP, 4.58 xFIP and 4.79 SIERA all painted a much uglier picture than his more palatable ERA. For most of the season, Cobb looked more like a fifth starter than a mid-rotation arm.

There’s reason to wonder if Cobb can maintain the uptick in strikeouts he displayed late in the year as well, given that he posted a dismal six percent swinging-strike rate in that seven-start span. In fact, Cobb’s overall 6.7 percent swinging-strike rate was the third-lowest of any qualified starting pitcher in 2017. He topped only Ty Blach and Andrew Cashner — who posted MLB’s two lowest K/9 rates — in that regard.

The biggest knock against Cobb, though, is that he simply hasn’t stayed on the field often enough in his big league career. Since debuting in 2011, Cobb has missed time due to a hand injury, a concussion that wiped out a third of his 2013 season, oblique issues and 2015 Tommy John surgery. He’s never made more than 29 starts in a season and has never even reached the 180-inning mark. His agents can try to pitch him as a “low mileage arm” as a result, but the argument doesn’t carry all that much weight when the disabled list is the driving factor behind his low innings total and he has already had Tommy John surgery.

Like Arrieta and Lynn, Cobb rejected a one-year, $17.4MM qualifying offer from his previous team, so he’ll require the forfeiture of draft compensation for any team that wishes to sign him. Teams that paid the luxury tax in 2017 and teams that did not receive revenue sharing will also have to surrender a portion of their 2018-19 international bonus pool space to sign Cobb.

Market

Since the onset of free agency, Cobb has been regarded among the second tier of starting pitchers, ranking alongside Lynn in that regard, while both Darvish and Arrieta are considered to be the top two starters available. Of that quartet, only Darvish did not receive a qualifying offer (by virtue of the fact that he was traded midseason).

To date, Cobb has been tied most prominently to the Cubs. That makes plenty of sense given a potentially open rotation spot (assuming Mike Montgomery moves back to the bullpen) as well as clear connections to Cobb from his Rays days (manager Joe Maddon, new pitching coach Jim Hickey). Chicago reportedly made Cobb a three-year offer at a guaranteed total of $42MM. Cobb is said to have rejected that deal, and I’ll delve more into his earning capacity in the section that follows.

Beyond the Cubs, he’s been tied to the Twins, the Brewers, the Rangers and, much earlier in the offseason, the Orioles and Yankees. New York has since re-signed CC Sabathia, though the Yankees reportedly are maintaining interest in Darvish, so perhaps they’d have interest in Cobb at the right price. Then again, none of the names to which they’ve been prominently connected are associated with draft compensation.

Beyond that group, the Cardinals and Phillies are among the teams that are still reportedly seeking rotation upgrades to varying extents, though neither has been directly linked to Cobb. The Blue Jays, also, are said to be weighing the addition of a starting pitcher, as are the Dodgers (where president of baseball ops Andrew Friedman knows Cobb well from his own time with the Rays). Meanwhile, over in D.C., it’s unclear who will lock down the fifth spot in the rotation. To be clear, none of those teams is reported to be a serious pursuer of Cobb so much as they’re more generally reported to be exploring rotation additions. Presumably, once a combination of Darvish, Arrieta and/or Lynn come off the board, Cobb could see some new teams more seriously linked to his services.

Expected Contract

Reports early in the offseason suggested that Cobb was seeking upwards of $100MM over a five-year term, though FanRag’s Jon Heyman recently wrote that Cobb is now believed “willing” to sign a four-year deal at a total of $70MM or a five-year deal worth $80MM. Despite a fairly robust group of potential landing spots, those numbers range from ambitious ($70-80MM) to outlandish ($100MM), in my view.

Certainly, a pitcher doesn’t need to be an ace to secure $70-80MM in the modern financial climate of MLB. Ian Kennedy ($70MM), Mike Leake ($80MM) and Wei-Yin Chen ($80MM) have received five-year deals in the past two years. Kennedy and Chen even received opt-out provisions in their contracts. On a per-inning basis, I’d take Cobb over anyone from that trio. Cobb’s agents at Beverly Hills Sports Council — the same agency that represents Leake — are no doubt making a similar case in pitching their client to teams.

Unfortunately, one can hardly look at Cobb on a per-inning basis and compare him to other starters. Each of the starters in that group averaged at least 29 starts per season in the years leading up to free agency. Teams banked on them as durable sources of respectable innings. Cobb? The 29 starts he made in 2017 were a career-high, as were the 179 1/3 innings he threw.

Cobb has made 25 starts in a season just twice in his career, and he’s never reached the 180-inning plateau — even when combining Major League, minor league and postseason innings. It’s true that teams are leaning more heavily on the bullpen and asking starters to turn a lineup over for a third time with diminished frequency. But, it’s not reasonable to project Cobb to top 180 innings, and it’d be optimistic to even forecast him to approach last year’s total of 179 1/3 frames. Steamer projects Cobb at 133 innings; Baseball-Reference projects him to tally 152 — which would be only the third time in his career that he’s reached that level.

None of this is to disparage Cobb. In fact, when projecting Cobb’s contract for our annual Top 50 free agent rankings — MLBTR pegged Cobb at a four-year, $48MM deal — I was the most aggressive member of the MLBTR staff when deciding what prediction to place next to his name. It took numerous exchanges in our debate to get Cobb pushed up to the Brandon McCarthy deal.

The parallels with McCarthy, though, are significant. When I was writing McCarthy’s free agent profile three years ago, I noted that no pitcher with fewer than two seasons of 180+ innings had signed a guaranteed four-year deal in free agency. McCarthy set a precedent, in that regard, by inking a four-year, $48MM deal despite only having one season meeting that admittedly arbitrary criteria. No pitcher has matched the feat since.

Entering the offseason, I believed it was possible that the overall market for starting pitching had moved forward to the point that Cobb could secure a four-year guarantee despite the lack of durability on his resume. At the time, I’d have been comfortable predicting Cobb at anywhere between $52-56MM over a four-year term, recognizing that he at one point looked to be a potential emerging upper-echelon starter and showed glimpses of that down the stretch in 2017. (And, as previously noted, the increased emphasis on bullpen usage lessens the need for a starter to be able to rack up 200+ innings on the regular.) If Cobb is still dead set on maxing out his dollars on a four-year deal, then I think that range still applies.

However, the more I think about it, the more Cobb strikes me as a candidate for a “pillow” type of contract. “Pillow” deals in 2018, though, aren’t the same as they were even five years ago. Rather than traditional one-year deals, newfangled pillow contracts are more frequently multi-year pacts with significant guarantees that include early opt-out clauses, as we’ve seen recently from Yoenis Cespedes, Scott Kazmir, Matt Wieters and Greg Holland.

If the Cubs were really willing to offer Cobb $42MM over a three-year term, then perhaps it shouldn’t be that difficult to find a club that would offer a slightly larger guarantee with an opt-out after the first year. That’d effectively be the contract that Kazmir signed with the Dodgers — three years, $48MM with an opt-out after year one — and would leave Cobb with a notable payday and the opportunity to prove that he’s now capable of tossing 180+ innings (or thereabouts) in consecutive seasons. As an added and certainly significant bonus, Cobb would hit the market without the burden of draft-pick compensation next year, were he able to remain healthy and build on his strong finish, as the new CBA stipulates that players can only receive one QO in their career.

Bottom line: if Cobb wants to max out his guarantee, I still think he can land a four-year deal in the range of $52-56MM. But, if his camp is dead set on a $70-80MM payday, I’m not sure it’ll be there. Instead, he should consider seeking something in the Kazmir range — $45-48MM over three years with an opt-out clause — while hoping to re-enter the market next offseason when he won’t be tied to draft compensation and can potentially have another largely healthy season under his belt.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Rangers Sign Deolis Guerra

By Jeff Todd | January 16, 2018 at 12:15pm CDT

The Rangers have struck a minors deal with righty Deolis Guerra, per a club announcement. He’ll participate on the MLB side of spring camp.

Guerra, 28, becomes the latest in a succession of pitchers to sign on with the Texas organization over the winter. If he can’t earn his way onto the active roster in camp, Guerra will presumably take up a spot near the top of the Rangers’ relief depth chart.

Texas has seen plenty of Guerra in recent seasons, as he has played with the division-rival Angels organization. In 2015, the righty spun 53 1/3 innings of 3.21 ERA ball with 6.1 K/9 and 1.2 BB/9. Despite that useful output, he was removed from the Halos’ 40-man roster last spring.

Guerra ended up bouncing between the MLB roster and Triple-A in 2017. In the majors, he sputtered to a 4.68 ERA in 25 frames, over which he uncharacteristically handed out a dozen free passes but did show a surprising 14.9% swinging-strike rate. Guerra carried a 1.98 ERA with 9.0 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 in his 41 innings at the highest level of the minors.

Central Notes: Pirates, Harrison, Castellanos, Cubs

By Jeff Todd | January 16, 2018 at 11:12am CDT

In an Insider post, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney provides some worthwhile perspective on the Pirates’ recent moves, arguing that the organization would be perceived much differently had its 2013-15 postseason appearances gone differently. Some may scoff at the idea that this excuses anything: had the team been better, perhaps, it might’ve achieved playoff glory; that it did not does not bear directly on present decisions. That’s true enough, but it’s also valid to note that a few moments in a few games drastically altered the bigger picture of Pittsburgh baseball, which in turn has impacted the way many will now view the trades of key veterans Andrew McCutchen and Gerrit Cole. Olney’s juxtaposition of the Bucs with the Royals — whose own postseason successes followed lesser regular-season accomplishments than those of the Pirates, and turned on some magical moments — seems largely apt. Of course, that doesn’t really reduce the sting for the fans. (It’s also fair to note that, for better or worse, Kansas City mostly kept its best veterans around through the ends of their contracts.) It’s an interesting piece worth a read for subscribers.

Let’s check in on the latest from Pittsburgh and elsewhere around the game:

As Olney notes in his column and tweeted yesterday, many in the industry expect the Pirates to continue working on trades for veteran players. In particular, Josh Harrison could be on the move — a possibility that has been talked about for much of the winter. The versatile utilityman will surely hold appeal to numerous other organizations, though the full scope of his potential market is not entirely clear at this point.
Whether or not Harrison is also traded, the Pirates are expressing confidence that the roster can be a factor in the near term. As Elizabeth Bloom of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette writes, the organization’s higher-ups stressed yesterday that parting with McCutchen and Cole does not equate to a full-blown rebuild. Hearkening to the club’s breakout 2013 team, the Pirates’ top executives all put a positive spin on their reloading effort. “We need to remember what put us in playoff contention in 2013,” said owner Bob Nutting. “We had an infusion of talent, young talent, and played effectively, outperformed. We’ve done that before. We need to put ourselves in a position to do that again.” Likewise, GM Neal Huntington called the Bucs “a young, talented team … that is going to be fun to watch.” Needless to say, those words aren’t exactly falling on universally receptive ears. Rob Rossi of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, for instance, blasted the organization and called on fans to express their disappointment with their wallets.
The Tigers remain open to dealing Nicholas Castellanos this winter, Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press reports. Castellanos is slated to earn $6.05MM in his second-to-last season of arbitration eligibility — a campaign in which he’s expected to undergo a full-time move to right field. Previously, we’ve heard that the 25-year-old had drawn some interest after he and the team failed to see eye to eye on an extension. That said, GM Al Avila has made clear the Tigers are not committed to trading Castellanos, whose glove hasn’t kept pace with his otherwise promising bat.
Though the focus still seems to be on the rotation, the Cubs arguably also need another significant reliever, Patrick Mooney argues in The Athletic (subscription link). Chicago might conceivably go bigger with a bullpen addition if it settles for more of a depth starter, says Mooney, who notes that GM Jed Hoyer acknowledged recently that the club could still add to the relief corps.

The Inner Monologue of @DimTillard Giveaway Nights

By Tim Dillard | January 16, 2018 at 10:01am CDT

It’s 8:13am on Tuesday January 16th, 2018. My name is Tim Dillard. Some of my personal achievements include, and are probably limited to… possessing more than twenty-seven free tee-shirts, owning six Star Wars coffee mugs, highjacking Tim Kurkjian’s microphone, beating Super Mario Bros. in under nine minutes, and was once given beard-care advice from Canada’s The Bachelor. I’ve also been a pitcher in professional baseball for the last fifteen seasons. With a HUGE majority of that experience being spent in the Minor Leagues. However, this one time in the Big Leagues, I did make fun of Trevor Hoffman’s cutoff sleeves… he laughed.

8:15am If this is your first time reading my Inner Monologue, I’d just like to say… shame on you! And… no excuse! But also kindly remind you that I’ve written ten others you should totally check out. MLB Trade Rumors was so desperate, that when I begged for them to post my articles they said NO. But later said YES! So did you hear that kids, ~~persistance~~ ~~percistence~~ ~~pursistance~~ ~~presistence~~ ~~percystence~~ PERSISTENCE pays off!

8:18am Currently I’m trying to come up with something interesting and baseball related to type about… but for now I’ll just enjoy coffee out of my Princess Leia mug. It has two handles that act as her famous hair buns. Definitely as cool and nerdy as it sounds, and is probably my favorite mug in recent memory.

8:19am When I was FIVE years old I had an awesome Budweiser Clydesdales mug. I guess that could sound bad… but it was a promotional giveaway from the South Bend White Sox baseball team in way back in 1988. We were living in South Bend, Indiana and my fasha Steve Dillard was the team’s manager. I loved that mug, but almost every day that summer, a certain outfielder would take that horse mug right out my tiny locker. He’d stuff a paper towel down in it, and then use it to spit tobacco. Usually I found it nasty and abandoned in the training room. So I’d grab the mug and immediately go scrub and rinse the thing until it was once again spotless. But by the end of the season, due to my lack of proper dish care techniques, I had inadvertently scrubbed those majestic beasts right off the side of the mug! (a tear just hit my keyboard)

8:26am You know, forgiveness is a very important lesson to learn in life… and one day, I plan on forgiving that man.

8:27am Spending most of my childhood at Minor League baseball stadiums, is probably the reason I enjoy giveaways so much. For eleven years I ate my cereal out of a 1990 Tucson Toros helmet bowl! (to this day, the logo is still intact, because it’s gently hand washed after every feeding)

8:29am You know those softy balls that are thrown into the stands during baseball games? Well in 1993, at age ten, I thought up, planned, and executed the theft of nine, that’s right, NINE Kane County Cougars promo balls. (not my proudest moment) During the getaway, I also fell and scraped the back of my hand. I still carry the scar. And now, the back of my hand is a reminder, that if you steal… you will fall down and scrape your hand.

8:33am To protect my eyes in years 2010 to 2015, I wore giveaway sunglasses from the Nashville Sounds’ Roy Orbison Night! My first two pairs were broken when accidentally sat on. Hard to believe, but my last pair of the free Orbison specs were actually stolen… by the Pacific Ocean. (I hope the Pacific Ocean fell down and scraped its hand)

8:36am Rally towel giveaways, bobblehead giveaways, tee-shirt giveaways, hat giveaways, football giveaways, and then there’s firework nights, superhero nights, Disney Nights, and don’t even get me started on Star Wars nights!

8:38am In 2016, I was part of a Harry Potter Night at the ballpark. Dozens of people were dressed in very authentic costumes from the movie saga. They would act out scenes on the field in-between innings and also helped with the Culver’s Build-A-Burger Race. I’m usually way away from the action down in the bullpen, but I ran to the dugout when Harry Potter himself was casting spells next to it. Our first baseman leaned over the railing and asked if they were part of some sort of Fan Club. Harry stopped, turned, and said, “What? Most certainly not! We are students at Hogwarts School of Witchcraft and Wizardry!”

8:44am We all kind of laughed, then we asked Harry, “So then you’re like, part of a costumed acting class or something?” Once again not breaking character, and waving his wand he said, “No! These are our house robes you MUGGLE!”

8:46am And that was the game… where I apparently met the REAL Harry Potter.

8:47am But the greatest giveaway theme night in the history of the world was in 1994. My dad was the manager of the Quad City River Bandits in Davenport, Iowa. And I was an eleven year-old thief with a sweet tooth. And then it happened. Like, something out of a dream… TWINKIE NIGHT!! Literally all-you-can-eat Twinkies! I remember pallets and pallets of Twinkies piled high at every entrance to the stadium! I ate a dozen before First Pitch, or as I like to call it, before “Mom Shows Up”. But as my Twinkie count went up, my excitement level went down. And by the 7th Inning Stretch I was sick. Realizing I couldn’t eat any more, I had to concoct a plan to maximize this special night.

8:55am Instead of trying to put a bunch of Twinkies in a bag to carry home, and risk being apprehended and regulated by my parents, I began hiding them! For the last two innings of the game it was like reverse Easter! Not entirely sure where the phrase nook and cranny came from… but it applies! In the clubhouse above lockers and in the inside of cleats! I hid Twinkies on the concourse behind popcorn machines and under condiment stations! Needless to say, I secretly ate a Twinkie every day for the remainder of that season, but I knew some were left behind.

8:59am Ten years later, I was pitching for the Beloit Snappers, and traveled to Davenport to play the Quad City team. Besides baseball, my only goal on my way to the field that day was finding at least ONE of those hidden Twinkies! When we arrived I learned the stadium had been heavily renovated six months earlier, but I was still determined. And immediately went hunting for two hours. The next day I spent a few more hours looking before batting practice. The last day I was underneath the bleachers on top of a storage room, when a stadium worker walked up and asked what I was doing. I couldn’t think up a lie fast enough, so I said, “I’m looking for a Twinkie I may have left up here ten years ago.” …he laughed.

To Be Concluded…

Top 60 Remaining Trade Candidates

By Jeff Todd | January 16, 2018 at 8:38am CDT

It has been a month since we broke out the top 60 remaining offseason trade candidates in baseball. Since that time, several of the players from that list have indeed been dealt, while situations have also changed for some others. With a few weeks left for transactions to proceed before Spring Training opens, we’ll take a quick look at how the trade market appears to have changed.

Starting Pitchers

Market Changes: The Astros nabbed Gerrit Cole from the Pirates, taking one of the most obvious and best trade candidates off the market and filling an opening with a contender. That said, multiple organizations are still in play for one or more starters. The possibility of achieving greater value via trade is, perhaps, one of the many reasons that the top starters have yet to reach deals.

Top Remaining Trade Candidates

Chris Archer & Jake Odorizzi, Rays: Tampa Bay has moved one significant veteran (see below), suggesting the team is as open as ever to swapping out older/more expensive players for younger ones, though there’s hardly an indication that a full-scale rebuild is underway.
Michael Fulmer, Tigers: He has come up here and there in rumors, though there’s still no reason to believe Detroit is willing to move its best asset for anything less than a haul.
Danny Duffy, Ian Kennedy & Jason Hammel, Royals: Similarly, we’ve heard of teams asking about Duffy, but Kansas City has evidently not embarked upon a concerted effort to trade him. The other two players would be salary dumps, though the Royals could just keep them and hope for improvements while also being assured of filling up some innings.
Zack Greinke & Patrick Corbin, Diamondbacks: Moving Greinke’s contract would be a challenge, but still-simmering chatter on Arizona’s interest in J.D. Martinez suggests it is still plausible. Meanwhile, we’ve heard Corbin come up as another player who could be moved to open payroll space.
Dan Straily, Marlins: Dealing the righty would hurt for a pitching-needy team, but it has to be on the table.
Danny Salazar, Indians: We keep seeing Salazar’s name arise and Cleveland is said to be willing to deal him, but the team likely won’t do so unless that facilitates the filling of another need.
Julio Teheran & Brandon McCarthy, Braves: There’s still no indication that Teheran is being discussed, but he feels like a plausible chip in the right circumstances. It also seems possible that McCarthy could be passed along, though odds are he (and also just-acquired starter Scott Kazmir) will be viewed as necessary veteran depth entering camp.

Relievers

Market Changes: Three top lefties have departed the potential trade market, none via trade: Zach Britton suffered a serious injury, while Brad Hand and Felipe Rivero have signed extensions that almost certainly indicate they won’t be dealt this winter. There just aren’t any comparable hurlers to be had, so those developments seem to favor the remaining southpaw free agents. Veteran relievers Joakim Soria and Luis Avilan were also traded recently.

Top Remaining Trade Candidates

Alex Colome, Rays: Colome still seems the likeliest of the game’s top young closers to be dealt. Nothing has come together to this point, but he has appeared frequently in the rumor pages.
Kelvin Herrera, Royals: The asking price is said to be high; perhaps the Royals would be willing to take the risk of carrying Herrera to the trade deadline if offers aren’t sufficient.
Brad Ziegler, Junichi Tazawa & Kyle Barraclough, Marlins: While the Fish have created some breathing space in the payroll, moving some of the money owed to Ziegler and Tazawa would surely still hold appeal. It’s likely that Barraclough will be held, but nothing’s bolted down in Miami.
Shane Greene & Alex Wilson, Tigers: We haven’t heard much chatter surrounding this duo, but the Tigers must listen to any offers on any players.
Arodys Vizcaino, Braves: Likewise, it has been crickets on Viz all winter, but it’s still imaginable a team would take a look if other possibilities don’t work out.
Dellin Betances, Yankees: Entering the winter, it was at least reasonable to wonder whether New York would decide to move on after a tough 2017 season for Betances. We haven’t heard much indication of that, though it’s still possible that he changes hands, particularly with the Yanks counting pennies.
Raisel Iglesias, Reds: The odds are starkly against a deal with Cincinnati reportedly asking for the moon, but it’s possible to imagine interested clubs circling back if other things don’t work out.

Outfielders

Market Changes: Yesterday’s Andrew McCutchen deal was significant for this sector of the market, as it filled a void in San Francisco and took a name out of contention for other teams. But there’s still a need up the middle for the Giants, while other teams have not yet addressed their own needs.

Top Remaining Trade Candidates

Christian Yelich, Marlins: While the asking price is understandably steep, the Marlins are no doubt aware that it may be a good time to cash in on Yelich, who has indicated he’d prefer to be moved.
Billy Hamilton & Adam Duvall, Reds: At one point, Hamilton seemed all but gone. That’s no longer the case, but it’s still imaginable that either of these players is shipped out.
Randal Grichuk, Cardinals: Even with Stephen Piscotty traded, the Cards have an overloaded outfield mix.
Avisail Garcia, White Sox: Signals are that the asking price is too steep for a deal to come together, but Chicago’s front office is surely still picking up the phone on Garcia.
Domingo Santana & Keon Broxton, Brewers: With the Brew Crew still looking to add a starter, nothing can be ruled out. Of the team’s many intriguing outfielders, Santana and Broxton stand out as possible trade pieces in certain scenarios, and each has been floated in rumors thus far.
Aaron Altherr, Nick Williams & Odubel Herrera, Phillies: Now that the Phillies have pushed Rhys Hoskins into the outfield, there are two openings left and three arguably deserving candidates to fill them. Any of the trio could conceivably be moved in a deal to acquire a starter. Of course, this mix of players could also coexist on the roster, with the Phils sharing time and playing matchups while seeing how each develops.
Corey Dickerson, Rays: His name has at least been floated as a possible trade chip, though we’ve heard no rumblings of talks.
Kyle Schwarber, Cubs: There’s just no indication that a Schwarber deal is likely to occur this winter.
Jackie Bradley Jr., Red Sox: Despite some early rumblings, all recent signs point to JBJ staying put in Boston.
Jacoby Ellsbury, Yankees: The Yanks would love to find a taker for some of Ellsbury’s salary; unsurprisingly, that hasn’t been easy to pull off.
Shin-Soo Choo, Rangers: Ditto.
Yasmany Tomas, Diamondbacks: And ditto again.

Infielders

Market Changes: Two notable players have changed hands, with Evan Longoria going to the Giants and Yangervis Solarte joining the Blue Jays. Those swaps seemingly take the acquiring teams out of the market for other infielders.

Top Remaining Trade Candidates

J.T. Realmuto, Marlins: With the valuable Realmuto expressing his displeasure with the situation in Miami, it’s easy to imagine a swap, even if we still haven’t seen public indication that talks have advanced.
Josh Harrison, Pirates: We’ve seen Harrison’s name in the rumor mill a fair bit, but there’s still no clear word as to whether he’ll be moved. Trading Cole and Cutch certainly could be interpreted as making a Harrison swap more likely, but that isn’t necessarily the case. The club likely values the flexibility of the two option years in the infielder’s contract. Another Bucs veteran who might conceivably be dangled is backstop Francisco Cervelli, as a commenter points out.
Manny Machado, Orioles: It has been a bit of a roller coaster all offseason on Machado, with some reports still suggesting the O’s would like to get a deal done and others indicating that the team will stand by a lofty asking price.
Jed Lowrie, Athletics: The market for Lowrie has been quiet, but teams in need of an option at second could still check down to him.
Nicholas Castellanos & Jose Iglesias, Tigers: Neither player seems particularly likely to be targeted as a contender’s first choice, but both could hold appeal in the right situation. Detroit is prepared to move any veteran if it can achieve interesting young talent.
Scooter Gennett, Reds: We haven’t heard much discussion of a Gennett deal, perhaps because Cincinnati values him after a strong season but perhaps also because other teams are wary of his track record and inability to hit lefties.
Cesar Hernandez & Cameron Rupp, Phillies: There just isn’t much reason for the Phillies to rush into a deal involving Hernandez, particularly after freeing some infield playing time for younger players by trading shortstop Freddy Galvis. Though Rupp seems to be lining up for a timeshare behind the dish, he could still be parted with to clear the way for a new backstop duo in Philly.
Jose Abreu, White Sox: As with Garcia, the ask seems high and not designed to ensure a deal is completed.
Starlin Castro, Marlins: Though Miami no doubt likes the idea of marketing the four-time All-Star to a skeptical fan base, it surely also sees the appeal of shedding a chunk of his salary, which was absorbed in the Giancarlo Stanton swap. Castro has given indication he’d like to be traded.
Chase Headley, Padres: With Solarte shipped out, the Pads may line up this old favorite at the hot corner. But he’d surely also be available if another team comes calling.
Jurickson Profar, Rangers: While his name hasn’t arisen much, it still seems reasonable to think Texas is willing to make a deal on the former top prospect.
Yasmani Grandal, Dodgers: With little chatter emerging about Grandal, perhaps the Dodgers simply feel they are best served carrying two quality catchers into the 2018 season — which, really, is hard to argue with.
C.J. Cron & Luis Valbuena, Angels: Both these players can coexist on the roster, at least if you squint. But with Albert Pujols expected to command time at first while sharing the DH slot with Shohei Ohtani, and an infield otherwise loaded with everyday types, Cron and Valbuena aren’t the most comfortable fit.
Jason Kipnis, Indians: After a near-deal to the Mets fell apart, leaving the Indians unable to free up cash to land Santana, Cleveland seemingly settled on moving Kipnis back to his accustomed second base.
Brad Miller, Rays: Having moved Longoria, the Tampa Bay infield has more openings. On the other hand, that also indicates all bets are off for trade candidates, and the Rays may prefer to move on from Miller if they find a decent deal and feel they can better reallocate his anticipated salary.
Martin Prado, Marlins: Miami could just hang on to the veteran and hope he rebuilds his trade value a bit, or it could cut its losses if another team is willing to take on at least some of the obligations remaining.
Javier Baez, Addison Russell & Ian Happ, Cubs: Increasingly, it feels like this group of players will stay put. On the other hand, all it takes is one phone call and the Cubs are still looking for a starter.

NL Central Notes: Nelson, Molina, Cubs

By Steve Adams | January 15, 2018 at 10:08pm CDT

Brewers ace Jimmy Nelson is “way ahead of schedule” in his rehab from shoulder surgery, reports MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy. The initial plan for Nelson had been to begin a throwing program at the beginning of Spring Training, but Nelson tells McCalvy that he’ll now begin throwing next week. Nelson credits his accelerated timeline to regular use of a hyperbaric chamber, improved conditioning and diet as well as rigorous arm care and physical therapy.

The shortened timeline is music to the Brewers’ ears, though an exact timetable for Nelson remains uncertain following a September operation which, as McCalvy notes, repaired his shoulder in three separate places. Milwaukee already signed Jhoulys Chacin to a two-year deal, and they’ll return right-handers Chase Anderson and Zach Davies as well. That trio will be relied upon heavily while Nelson rehabs, with other candidates to take the ball every fifth day including Brent Suter, Josh Hader, Brandon Woodruff, Junior Guerra, Jorge Lopez ,Aaron Wilkerson and old friend Yovani Gallado (among others).

Elsewhere in the NL Central…

Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina is currently planning to retire after his current contract expires in 2020, he tells MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch. Molina says his body still feels up to the rigors of his typically large workload, adding that he has no plans to cut back on his playing time at the age of 35. There’s time, of course, for Molina’s mind to change on the matter of retirement. If he remains healthy and productive through the 2020 season and the Cardinals remain in contention, for instance, it’s not difficult to envision a change of heart. That said, Langosch notes that Molina sounded much more definitive on the matter this time around than he did a year ago when discussing his future after signing a three-year, $60MM extension that spans the 2018-20 seasons.
Cubs chairman Tom Ricketts was dismissive of the notion that collusion has slowed the free-agent market in an interview with Patrick Mooney of The Athletic (subscription required & recommended). Ricketts pointed out that in previous years, some teams have somewhat quietly inked new television deals or had those deals kick in, which has led to unexpected spending. (Ricketts doesn’t mention instances by name, though that was very likely a component in the D-backs’ signing of Zack Greinke, for instance.) Asked about the possibility of further spending for his own team, Ricketts replied: “Theo has the resources to do whatever he needs to do to win on the field. … I don’t know what’s going to happen with the guys that are out there, whether it’s a good fit for us.” Mooney also chats with newly promoted AGM Scott Harris about the slow offseason.

Blue Jays To Sign Curtis Granderson

By Steve Adams | January 15, 2018 at 7:58pm CDT

The Blue Jays have reached an agreement with free agent outfielder Curtis Granderson on a one-year deal worth $5MM, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). The contract, which is pending a physical, includes additional incentives. Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith notes that said bonuses are tied to the veteran outfielder’s playing time. Granderson is represented by agent Matt Brown of Pro Prospects, Inc.

The veteran Granderson will turn 37 in March and is coming off a down season at the plate in 2017. Granderson tallied 527 plate appearances and hit .212/.323/.452 with 26 homers in 2017 — the final season of a four-year, $60MM contract signed with the Mets prior to the 2014 season. He floundered following an August trade to the Dodgers, hitting just .161/.288/.366 in L.A. However, he was hitting a more palatable .228/.334/.481 through 395 plate appearances with New York.

While Granderson obviously had some struggles in the batting average department, he posted a strong OBP which was fueled by a career-best 13.5 percent walk rate. He still displayed plenty of pop as well, as his .241 isolated power mark (slugging minus average) was his highest since a 43-homer campaign with the Yankees back in 2012. Granderson belted 24 doubles and three triples in addition to his 26 big flies. Of course, as is typically the case with Granderson, the vast majority of his damage was done against right-handed pitching; Granderson hit .214/.337/.470 with 21 homers while holding the platoon advantage but limped to a bleak .202/.274/.394 slash against left-handed opponents.

As such, it stands to reason that Granderson will be largely platooned in an outfield corner with the Blue Jays in 2018. Kevin Pillar figures to lock down center field on an everyday basis, but Granderson makes a natural platoon partner for Steve Pearce in left field. His left-handed bat will also provide some insurance in the event that young Teoscar Hernandez, a right-handed hitter, struggles early in the ’18 campaign. (The same is true of Anthony Alford, should he make the club out of camp or later down the line in 2018.)

From a defensive standpoint, Granderson’s days as top-notch center fielder are in the past, though he showed in 2017 that he can still handle the position in a pinch, logging 473 innings there — mostly for an injury-ravaged Mets roster. The majority of Granderson’s corner work has come in right field, where he’s routinely posted above-average marks, as was once again the case this past season. Though Granderson logged only 273 innings in right field last year, he turned in an excellent +6 Defensive Runs Saved mark and an equally impressive mark of +5.1, per Ultimate Zone Rating.

Toronto has been tied to various outfielders as of late, though two potential targets — Jay Bruce and Andrew McCutchen — have come off the market in the past week. Both players are limited to the outfield corners, so it’s possible that Toronto viewed Granderson as a fallback and moved quickly once those younger options were off the board.

It remains to be seen if the addition of Granderson halts the Jays’ reported interest in Lorenzo Cain, though there’s certainly room to add him to the roster. An outfield that regularly deployed both Cain and Pillar would be a formidable defensive unit, particularly if Granderson is able to maintain his quality work in the outfield corners. And, Granderson’s left-handed bat could be used to occasionally spell both Pillar and Cain against tough righties while providing a fair bit of insurance against injuries.

Financially speaking, the Blue Jays should still have plenty of room to add Cain and/or a rotation upgrade. Toronto reportedly had about $20MM to spend on 2018 payroll before the agreement with Granderson, and GM Ross Atkins has said that bolstering the outfield and the pitching staff are both priorities with the team’s remaining offseason resources. Granderson is a nice start on that goal, though he’s also the type of player that could be pushed into the role of a high-quality bench bat/reserve player in the event that the team can land an upgrade that is closer to his prime.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Giants Acquire Andrew McCutchen

By Steve Adams | January 15, 2018 at 5:34pm CDT

5:34pm: Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets that the Pirates are covering $2.5MM of McCutchen’s $14.75MM salary.

5:25pm: It became all the more clear on Monday that Pirates fans are looking at the end of an era, as the team announced that face of the franchise Andrew McCutchen has been traded to the Giants (along with cash considerations) in exchange for young right-hander Kyle Crick, outfield prospect Bryan Reynolds and $500K worth of international bonus pool space.

Outfield help has been a priority for the Giants all offseason after last year’s collective unit combined to bat .253/.311/.374 in more than 2000 plate appearances. Inserting McCutchen into that mix should provide a significant boost on the offensive side of the equation, as the 31-year-old turned in a very strong rebound campaign at the plate in 2017, hitting .279/.363/.486 with 28 homers (his highest total since hitting 31 back in 2012).

Of course, questions about McCutchen’s glovework persisted in 2017 — and it should be noted that the Giants’ outfield defense was the worst in baseball last year. San Francisco outfielders combined to post an MLB-worst -45 mark in Defensive Runs Saved, and they ranked just 28th with a -11.4 Ultimate Zone Rating. The since-traded Denard Span played no small role in those shortcomings, but McCutchen’s marks of -14 and -4.5 in those respective stats don’t exactly stand out as an indicator that an extensive amount of help is on the defensive horizon.

If the Giants were to play McCutchen in an outfield corner, perhaps he could post more meaningful contributions in that regard. At present, he figures to line up in center field, though the Giants could yet play McCutchen in left field and acquire a cost-effective center field option with a stronger defensive reputation (someone in the mold of Jarrod Dyson, speaking from a speculative standpoint).

However, it’s important to note that there may not be room for the Giants to make much of an addition. San Francisco will add more than $9MM to its luxury tax ledger by picking up the final year of McCutchen’s deal, which should place them roughly $7MM from the threshold. San Francisco has reportedly been aiming to remain under the tax cap in order to reset its penalty level.

[Related: Updated San Francisco Giants depth chart & San Francisco Giants payroll]

For the Giants, McCutchen is the second notable veteran bat the team has landed via trade this offseason. San Francisco also picked up Evan Longoria in a trade that sent Christian Arroyo, Span (plus the remaining year of his contract) and a pair of minor league pitchers to the Rays. Depending on their willingness to either shed additional payroll or pivot and exceed the luxury tax for a fifth consecutive season, those two big-name acquisitions could prove to be the Giants’ primary offseason acquisitions.

The McCutchen agreement comes just days after the Pirates shipped right-hander Gerrit Cole to the reigning World Champion Astros, further signaling a transitional period in Pittsburgh, though the pair of trades does not necessarily indicate that a full-scale tear-down is on the horizon for the Bucs. Both Cole (controlled through 2019) and McCutchen (a free agent next winter) were short-term and relatively high-priced assets — especially for a Pirates team that operates on a notoriously thin budget.

McCutchen is slated to earn $14.75MM in the final season of his contract, whereas Cole had settled at $6.75MM in order to avoid arbitration. The Pirates, then, will be saving a combined $21.5MM with this pair of swaps — money that could, in theory, be reinvested into the 2018 roster. The Pirates have, after all, opened each of the past three season with payrolls in excess of $90MM but now project for a payroll of roughly $82MM in 2018. The Bucs could further reduce that 2018 commitment if the team ultimately finds a trade partner for infielder/outfielder Josh Harrison; the versatile veteran is slated to earn $10MM this season and, like Cole and McCutchen before him, has been an oft-mentioned trade candidate this offseason.

[Related: Updated Pittsburgh Pirates depth chart & Pittsburgh Pirates payroll]

The 25-year-old Crick was the 49th overall pick in the 2011 draft and ranked among baseball’s top 100 prospects from 2013-15, per various reports. While his rise through the minors was slowed by control issues, he had a strong year in 2017 after converting to the bullpen on a full-time basis.

In 29 1/3 innings of relief in Triple-A, he posted a 2.76 ERA with 12.0 K/9, 4.0 BB/9 and a 44.3 percent ground-ball rate. That strong run led to Crick’s big league debut with the Giants; in 32 1/3 innings in the Majors, he logged a 3.06 ERA with 7.8 K/9, 4.7 BB/9 and a 37.9 percent ground-ball rate. Crick’s 95.5 mph average fastball velocity and 11 percent swinging-strike rate both pointed to the potential for his big league strikeout rate to catch up to the more impressive level he flashed in Triple-A.

Crick is controllable through the 2023 season, so he’ll join a lengthy list of controllable assets the Bucs received in the Cole trade as a potential long-term piece that can step directly onto the roster.

“Kyle Crick is a physical, Major League-ready right-handed reliever who brings a high-velocity, live fastball complimented by a quality slider to potentially pitch in a late inning role for the Pirates,” said Pirates GM Neal Huntington. “Kyle’s power arsenal has resulted in a high strikeout rate complimented by inducing a lot of weak contact. After his first exposure to the Major League level last season, Kyle appears ready to take the next steps in what should be a productive career as a high leverage Major League relief pitcher.”

Reynolds, 23 later this month, was the Giants’ second-round pick in 2016 and just wrapped up a strong season in Class-A Advanced, where he hit .312/.364/.462 with 10 homers, 26 doubles and nine triples in 540 trips to the plate. Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com had him fourth among Giants prospects, while Baseball America ranked him fifth among San Francisco farmhands just a few weeks ago (before the Arroyo trade, meaning he’d now rank fourth on their list as well).

“Bryan is an effective offensive player that also plays quality defense,” said Huntington. “We look forward to working with Bryan to maximize his tools and help him become a quality well-rounded Major League player who can impact a game in many ways beyond his quality bat.”

As for the Pirates’ immediate future in the outfield, it’s not yet entirely clear how they’ll fill the void. Starling Marte seems likely to slide over from the corner outfield to center field, which should be a defensive upgrade over the life of a full season. Top prospect Austin Meadows showed in 2017 that he’s likely not yet ready for the Majors — Meadows hit just .250/.311/.359 in Triple-A — so the Bucs could turn to a platoon of 26-year-old Adam Frazier and veteran utility man Sean Rodriguez in left field for the time being.

Alternatively, Pittsburgh could wait out the free agent market and see if any veterans become available on bargain deals. The corner outfield market has no shortage of experienced options (MLBTR Free Agent Tracker link), and some of those names will undoubtedly have to settle for one-year deals later this winter.

Robert Murray and Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports first reported that talks between the two sides were picking up (Twitter link). Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that the two sides had reached an agreement (Twitter link). Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area tweeted that Crick was in the deal. Yahoo’s Jeff Passan tweeted that Reynolds was likely to be a part of the deal, and The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly confirmed as much. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reported that the Pirates would pay some of McCutchen’s salary.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Twins Sign Addison Reed

By Connor Byrne | January 15, 2018 at 4:52pm CDT

The Twins have bolstered their relief corps with the signing of their third free-agent reliever of the offseason, announcing on Monday a two-year deal with righty Addison Reed. The Wasserman client will be guaranteed $16.75MM on the contract, according to the Twins (one of the few teams that disclose financial details in the majority of their transactions).

The fact that the Twins will reel in Reed on such a short-term commitment comes as a surprise. MLBTR had projected a four-year pact for the right-hander, and most pundits had him pegged for at least a three-year commitment prior to the onset of free agency. Reed had three-year offers on the table at times this offseason, but his desire was to join a team in the Midwest, per Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan (Twitter link). The 29-year-old now joins Fernando Rodney and Zach Duke as veteran additions to the Minnesota bullpen. Like Rodney, Reed brings ninth-inning experience, having saved a combined 125 games since debuting in 2011.

[RELATED: Updated Twins Depth Chart]

Pitching has been the main focus this offseason for the Twins, who are coming off their first playoff campaign since 2010. The club’s 85-victory year came in spite of underwhelming pitching, including a relief corps that ranked 22nd in the majors in ERA (4.40) and 29th in strikeout rate (7.66 K/9). Reed’s lifetime output indicates he’ll significantly help the Twins’ cause over the next couple years, as he has pitched to a 3.40 ERA and posted 9.5 strikeouts per nine across a 402 2/3-inning career with the White Sox, Diamondbacks, Mets and Red Sox.

While Reed is coming off a career-low season in terms of velocity, he nonetheless registered an impressive 2.84 ERA across 76 innings between New York and Boston. It was the second straight year with at least 76 frames for Reed, who ranks fifth among relievers in innings since 2016 (153 2/3). His success has come thanks in part to an aversion to doling out free passes, including in 2017, when he issued 1.78 walks per nine. At the same time, he logged a solid K/9 (9.0) and recorded his highest full-season swinging-strike percentage (13.7).

The Reed signing is the first time Minnesota has given a multiyear deal to an outside reliever, Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press notes on Twitter. With Reed, Rodney and Duke in the fold, it’s possible Twins chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and general manager Thad Levine are done making notable improvements to the team’s bullpen this offseason. But they’re sure to add starting pitching help between now and the opening of the season, and it’s perhaps worth noting that their top free agent target, righty Yu Darvish, shares an agency with Reed.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported the agreement (Twitter link). Jon Heyman of FanRag tweeted the exact terms.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Twins Designate Buddy Boshers For Assignment

By Steve Adams | January 15, 2018 at 4:37pm CDT

The Twins announced that they’ve designated left-handed reliever Buddy Boshers for assignment. His roster spot will go to right-hander Addison Reed, whose previously reported two-year, $16.75MM contract has been announced by the team.

Boshers, 30 in May, parlayed a minor league deal with the Twins in the 2015-16 offseason into 71 innings of work and more than a year of service at the big league level. In parts of his two seasons with Minnesota, the southpaw turned in a 4.56 ERA. Boshers impressed with an 8.2 K/9 rate against 2.2 BB/9, but he’s also been somewhat homer-prone (1.3 HR/9). He’s also been clobbered by right-handed opponents in that time; while Boshers limited lefties to a lowly .231/.262/.345 batting line through 122 plate appearances, righties knocked him around at a .268/.330/.485 clip in 183 PAs.

Boshers does have a minor league option remaining and has had his share of success against left-handed opponents, so it’s possible that he latches on elsewhere as a potential lefty specialist. If not, he’ll return to a Twins organization where he’s now behind Taylor Rogers, offseason signee Zach Duke and young Gabriel Moya on the depth chart for left-handed relievers.

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