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Mets Interested In Robbie Ray

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The Mets could trade Noah Syndergaard and-or Zack Wheeler by Wednesday’s trade deadline, but they might land at least one immediate rotation replacement in the coming days. Already connected to Blue Jays right-hander Marcus Stroman, the club’s also “on” Diamondbacks left-hander Robbie Ray, per Andy Martino of SNY.tv.

Interest in Stroman and Ray jibes with the notion that the Mets, despite their dreadful 2019, are aiming to contend and not rebuild next season. Whether it would be an ill-advised plan for the prospect-needy Mets is up for debate, but it seems the goal would be to collect a haul for at least Syndergaard (there’s reportedly interest in extending Wheeler) and trade from their farm to acquire Stroman or Ray. Each of those two would bring back less in a deal than Syndergaard, who’s under control for one more year than they are, but they’d hardly come cheap.

There’s little doubt Ray would cost less to land than Stroman, who owns the superior track record. But there’s plenty of value with Ray, a proven mid-rotation starter who’s on an affordable $6.05MM salary now and controllable through arbitration next season. The playoff-contending Diamondbacks might not even give him up, but if they were to send Ray to the Mets, he’d join Jacob deGrom in giving the team two elite strikeout pitchers.

The 27-year-old Ray is obviously much less effective overall than deGrom, but Ray’s nonetheless on his way to a third straight season with a sky-high strikeout rate and a sub-4.00 ERA. Ray has logged a 3.95 ERA/4.27 FIP with 11.85 K/9 through 123 innings. He has, however, walked upward of four batters per nine for the second year in a row, posted a sub-40 percent groundball rate for the second straight campaign and kept up his years-long struggles with home runs.

Wil Myers Discusses Prolonged 2019 Slump

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In a refreshingly candid interview with Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, Padres outfielder Wil Myers gave several quotes providing insight into the mind of an established ballplayer who has fallen precipitously on hard times on the diamond.

“It’s not something that I ever saw coming, especially to have an All-Star year and then three years later not be playing,” Myers said. “It’s definitely tough. This is one of the things that hurts your pride. This is what I’ve been good at since I was five-years-old.

By “something,” Myers is referring to his sudden inability to do the things that have made him a highly compensated professional athlete. On the 2019 season, Myers–always a strikeout-prone hitter–has been felled by way of the “K” an astonishing 111 times in his 270 at-bats. With the exception of Myers’ 2014 season–when he was hindered by a lingering wrist injury–this year’s output would represent career-low marks in wRC+ (87), OPS (.696), and batting average (.211).

More alarmingly, it’s difficult to find evidence that Myers’ poor production is simply the result of poor luck or context. His .306 BABIP is right around his career average; the same is true for his hard-hit rate (43.1%). His wOBA of .305 isn’t shockingly far from his .323 xwOBA. Unfortunately, the only readily available explanation seems to be “between the ears,” and Myers spoke on how his struggles have affected his confidence.

“No matter how hard you try, it seems like you’re digging a bigger hole,” Myers said. “So I definitely have been pissed off. I can’t stand sitting the bench. I hate it. I really do. It’s just terrible. I’ve never done it before.”

Taken out of context, those quotes may simply sound like the venting of a frustrated ballplayer disgruntled over lack of playing time. However, Acee’s article actually includes some revelatory comments that indicate Myers’ willingness to do what’s best for the organization that signed him to a six-year, $86.5MM extension that begins to escalate into $20MM annual territory beginning next year.

Of a possible demotion to the minor leagues–which Myers, as a veteran player, has the right to refuse–the outfielder indicated, at least, openness: “I can’t sit here and lie and pretend like I haven’t thought like, ‘Maybe if I had some at-bats there, it might get better,’ ” Myers acknowledged. “But, you know, what, that’s not why I’m here. I’m here to bring value to this team right now.”

Though the extension handed to Myers by GM AJ Preller has become a rightful punching bag of analysts and fans alike, the outfielder’s sudden, prime-year struggles are fascinatingly inexplicable. Between 2015 and 2018, it could have been argued that Myers was, if nothing else, a model of consistency: his wRC+ in that span never dipped below 107 or above 115; his slugging percentage in that span checked in with a high mark of .464 and a low mark of .427. Heading into the season at age 28, Myers may not have been the superstar the team forecasted when it handed him a sizable extension, but he was still a thoroughly playable piece.

Suddenly, though, Myers’ ability to “bring value to the team” will hinge largely on the play of his teammates. The emergence of Franmil Reyes and Hunter Renfroe as quality big league hitters–along with the improving play of Manuel Margot–have left him without much of a spot in the outfield, while the organization’s decision to sign Eric Hosmer to an eight-year, $144MM deal in 2018 categorically moved Myers off of first base. Without many available at-bats within immediate reach, Myers could have a tough time breaking out of this prolonged 2019 slump.

Latest On Trevor Bauer

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It’s anyone’s guess whether the Indians will trade right-hander Trevor Bauer before Wednesday’s deadline. On one hand, he’s an integral piece of a surging team that has climbed to 62-42, putting the Tribe four up on the AL’s top wild-card spot and just one back of the division-leading Twins. On the other, the budget-conscious Indians would net an enticing return for Bauer, who’s on a $13MM salary and figures to earn a raise of $5MM or more to conclude his arbitration control next season. Even if the Indians decide to retain Bauer through this year, his time in Cleveland is nearing a conclusion. The 28-year-old “almost certainly” isn’t going to be on the Indians’ roster in 2020, Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com reports.

In the meantime, the Indians have a few days to choose how to proceed with Bauer this season. There’s already known to be plenty of interest in Bauer, but it seems two of the Indians’ AL rivals – the Yankees and Astros – are pursuing him with more vigor than anyone else. Those two clubs “keep inquiring about Bauer,” writes Hoynes, who adds the Indians have also discussed him with the Padres and Braves.

Among the Yankees, Astros, Padres and Braves, only San Diego isn’t an immediate contender. However, the club is known to like Bauer, whom it tried to acquire at the beginning of the season. Led by their collection of young talent, the Padres have made progress since then, and they’re aiming to make a more spirited run at a playoff berth next year. That’s evidenced by the club’s interest in Bauer and other established starters, including Tigers lefty Matthew Boyd and Mets righty Noah Syndergaard.

It would seem rather difficult for Cleveland to hand Bauer to New York or Houston, in part because the Indians could realistically wind up facing him as a Yankee or Astro in the postseason. Plus, considering Corey Kluber has been out since May 1 with a forearm fracture (and isn’t returning imminently) and Carlos Carrasco’s battling leukemia, the Indians arguably need Bauer more than ever.

Bauer not only leads the Indians’ staff in innings (152 1/3), but he paces the entire league in that department, and has logged a solid 3.49 ERA/4.19 FIP with 10.58 K/9 and 3.49 BB/9. All-Star MVP Shane Bieber is the lone Indians starter who has outperformed Bauer over the course of a full season in 2019. Mike Clevinger has been fantastic again, though he has only made nine starts. Another rookie, Zach Plesac, has joined Bieber in outdoing Bauer in ERA (3.10), but that figure looks like a house of cards when examining his fielding-independent pitching numbers. Meanwhile, Adam Plutko and the currently injured Jefry Rodriguez have managed back-end type of numbers over a combined 17 starts.

For now, the interest in Bauer may wind up going for naught. The Indians could prefer to hold Bauer and try to take another run at a championship as control over him and several other notables – most importantly, Francisco Lindor – dissipates. If the Indians elect against moving Bauer in the next few days, Hoynes suggests they’ll attempt to supplement their roster, perhaps by by adding relief and-or offensive help. Hoynes points to Rangers slugger Hunter Pence as “a possibility” for Cleveland, though it’s unclear if that’s speculation or if there’s real interest on the Tribe’s part.

Minor MLB Transactions: 7/27/19

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The latest minor moves from around baseball…

  • Cardinals left-handed reliever Chasen Shreve has cleared waivers and accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A Memphis, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch tweets. Shreve, whom the Cardinals designated Tuesday, could have opted for free agency instead. However, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams noted when the Cards booted him from their 40-man roster, Shreve would have had to forfeit the balance of his $900K salary. Shreve’s likely best known for joining the Cardinals (along with fellow reliever Giovanny Gallegos) in a trade with the Yankees for first baseman Luke Voit on July 28 of last year. Although  Shreve was solid at times prior to 2019, he has barely been a factor in the majors this season. The 29-year-old has thrown two innings in St. Louis and 42 2/3 in Memphis.

Blake Parker Clears Waivers

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Twins right-hander Blake Parker has cleared waivers after being designated for assignment by the club on July 24th, according to a tweet from The Athletic’s Dan Hayes. Parker is currently mulling whether or not to accept an assignment to Minnesota’s Triple-A club in Rochester.

The 34-year-old Parker, a veteran of five organizations, has pitched 36.1 innings for Minnesota’s big club this season, with middling bottom-line results. His 19.4% HR/FB rate, 3.96 BB/9 mark, and .245 BAA are not the markings of an elite reliever, but he has still registered strikeouts at a respectable rate and is just two years removed from logging a 2.54 ERA in 67.1 innings for the Angels. It is also worth noting that Parker owned a 3.25 ERA on the season before being shelled for four runs in an appearance on July 23rd. With that in mind, it is somewhat surprising that no club placed a claim on Parker as a late-season dice roll, given the volatility of relievers and the currently tight-fisted relief trade market.

The $1.8MM guarantee Parker held with Minnesota probably goes some way toward explaining his clearance through the waiver portal.  Had he been claimed, his acquiring team would have been on the hook for the remainder of that sum; if Parker rejects his Triple-A assignment and elects free agency, he will be eligible to sign a pro-rated league minimum pact with a new club, which would go toward offsetting the remaining money that Minnesota owes the pitcher.

Braves, Dodgers, Rays, Jays Pursuing Edwin Diaz

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Just four months into his first season with the Mets, ballyhooed winter acquisition Edwin Diaz has already emerged a potential trade chip amid a disappointing campaign. The Braves, Dodgers, Rays and Blue Jays are among the teams in on the right-handed closer, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports. Andy Martino of SNY.tv passes along different information on the Braves, tweeting there’s “no traction” on Diaz to Atlanta.

The fact that Atlanta, Los Angeles and Tampa Bay are rumored to have interest in Diaz isn’t a shock. They’re all contending teams that are known to be in the market for bullpen help. The inclusion of rebuilding Toronto looks especially intriguing on paper, though it’s possible Diaz wouldn’t ever throw a pitch for the Blue Jays. The club could instead acquire Diaz and flip him to the Braves – one of the Mets’ division rivals – for prospects, according to Puma.

It’s the latest creative trade idea involving Diaz, whom the Mets are reportedly considering putting in a package with righty starter Zack Wheeler before Wednesday’s deadline. But whether anyone will even be able to pry Diaz out of New York is up in the air. Diaz was rookie general manager Brodie Van Wagenen’s signature offseason addition, so BVW has predictably indicated it would take an enormous return for the Mets to deal him away so soon.

Van Wagenen, for his part, surrendered two of the game’s top prospects – outfielder Jarred Kelenic and righty Justin Dunn – in a package for Diaz and second baseman Robinson Cano. The Mets also took on $100MM of Cano’s remaining money to get Diaz, but the trade has blown up in the non-contending club’s face so far. The typically great Cano may be deteriorating at the age of 36, while Diaz hasn’t been able to match his otherworldly 2018 swan song in Seattle.

The hard-throwing Diaz arrived in New York as a celebrated bullpen savior after closing 57 of 61 opportunities, posting a 1.96 ERA/1.61 FIP and logging 15.22 K/9 against 2.09 BB/9 in 73 1/3 innings last season. The Mets’ version has been lit up for a 4.81 ERA over 39 1/3 frames and blown as many saves as he did last season (in 35 fewer chances). The home run ball has been a major concern this year for Diaz, who yielded HRs on a career-best 10.6 percent of flies in 2018. That figure has shot to a personal-worst 17.9 percent this season as his groundball numbers have fallen precipitously.

Even factoring in the difficulties Diaz has endured in 2019, there’s plenty to like – including his 97 mph heat, pre-2019 track record and the 3.50 FIP, 13.96 K/9 and 2.97 BB/9 he has logged this season. Diaz has also suffered from poor luck, it seems, evidenced in part by a .407 batting average on balls in play against and a wide gap between the .336 weighted on-base average/.271 xwOBA that hitters have recorded off him.

Diaz may be a prime candidate for a turnaround, which – coupled with his team control – helps make him extremely attractive to the Mets and other clubs. The 25-year-old’s earning just over $600K this season and will go through the first of three potential trips through arbitration over the winter. However, whether he’ll do so as a Met or as a member of another team is now surprisingly in question.

Reds Rumors: Garrett, Roark, Yankees

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The Reds had been clinging to the hope of buying this deadline season, but their recent skid could turn them into sellers prior to Wednesday. Now at 46-55, the National League’s third-worst record, the Reds sit a lofty 7 1/2 games out of wild-card position. We already know the club is willing to entertain offers for Raisel Iglesias as a result of its pre-deadline slide. Cincinnati also has at least a couple other pitchers generating interest in reliever Amir Garrett and starter Tanner Roark, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports (Twitter links).

“Many teams covet” the 27-year-old Garrett, Heyman writes, but the Reds are in the same boat. They’re actually more likely to trade Iglesias than Garrett, per Heyman. Garrett’s playing this season for a minimal salary and will do the same again in 2020 before potentially taking three trips through the arbitration process. Not only does Garrett bring four-plus years of team control to the table, but the left-hander has seemingly broken out this season.

Garrett fell flat as a starter in 2017, his rookie campaign, before faring far better as a reliever a year ago. The switch from the Reds’ rotation to their bullpen has led to a significant velocity increase for Garrett, who has averaged 95 mph on his fastball after clocking in just below 92 in his previous role.

During his debut as a reliever in 2018, Garrett registered a 4.29 ERA/3.89 FIP with 10.14 K/9, 3.57 BB/9 and a 38 percent groundball rate in 63 innings. That’s useful production, but Garrett has found another gear in 2019. Across 39 frames, he has pitched to a 1.85 ERA/3.09 FIP, and though his walk rate has soared to 5.08 per nine, Garrett’s strikeout and grounder marks have skyrocketed with it. Garrett has fanned 13-plus per nine and induced worm burners at a 53.8 percent clip. He has also stymied same- and opposite-handed hitters alike, evidenced by the .260 weighted on-base average lefties have managed off him and the .285 wOBA righties have put up. They’ve combined for a .274 wOBA, but Statcast’s xwOBA metric (.256) suggests Garrett has been even more dominant.

It’s no surprise the Reds want to keep Garrett, but there’s a strong argument it would make sense to trade Roark – a pending free agent who’s not a qualifying offer candidate. Along with the previously reported Phillies, the Yankees “have checked in on” Roark, according to Heyman. As Heyman notes, that may have been due diligence on the part of a Yankees team searching high and low for starting help.

Regardless of whether it’s the Yankees or someone else, it’s unlikely Cincinnati would have trouble finding a team for Roark. He is making a somewhat expensive $10MM salary, but Roark has justified the price tag this season. Since joining the Reds in a trade last winter, the 32-year-old ex-National has notched a 3.95 ERA/4.15 FIP with 8.92 K/9 and 2.86 BB/9 in 107 innings. There isn’t much difference between Roark’s bottom-line production in 2019 and the output that enabled him to total four seasons of at least 2.0 fWAR over the prior half-decade. He’s already at 1.8 in that category this year.

Twins, Rangers Have Discussed Mike Minor Trade

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Mike Minor, one of the more heavily discussed trade targets of 2019, has apparently been the subject of conversations held between the Rangers and Twins, according to a tweet from Jon Morosi of MLB Network (Twitter link). Morosi adds that the “extent of progress in talks is unclear.”

We may not be aware of the degree of Minnesota’s interest in Minor, but we certainly know that Twins chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and GM Thad Levine are keeping busy in advance of next week’s deadline. Just this evening, their club acquired Sergio Romo (the pioneer of the “opener” movement, it could be argued), and now we might presume they’re interested in additional staff reinforcements.

Minnesota has received a 3.88 collective ERA from its starters this year, with five of its rotation members–Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson, Michael Pineda, and Martin Perez–having already posted WAR values north of 1.7 on the year. They may not make for the most obvious Minor landing spot, but the time-worn adage of “never having enough pitching” may be looming large in the mind of Falvey and Levine. Plus, the executives are surely mindful Berrios is their only lock to return in 2020. Odorizzi, Gibson and Pineda are soon-to-be free agents, and Perez has a $7.5MM club option (or a $500K buyout). Minor’s due to make $9.5MM next season to close out his contract.

While Falvey and Levine may be interested in welcoming Minor to the Twin Cities, it is uncertain if the player would share their enthusiasm. Minor has a 10-team no-trade list, but it’s unknown if the Twins are on it. Moreover, as a key part of a Rangers team that has defied expectations en route to an above-.500 record, Minor did not take kindly when pressed recently about trade rumors connected to his name. He said simply that, for players, such rumors, “make us mad”. Minor has made clear he does not want to be moved by Texas, but it remains to be seen if the team will comply with those wishes.

Mets Considering Packaging Of Zack Wheeler, Edwin Diaz

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In what one must imagine is an extremely hectic organizational war room, front office employees for the Mets are mulling the packaging of Zack Wheeler and Edwin Diaz in a potential trade, according to a report from Joel Sherman of the New York Post (link).

For a club that is seven games under .500, the Mets–for all of the criticism they’ve received this year–are a team still laden with desirable players. According to Sherman, Mets officials have indicated that as many as 16 teams are currently “serious” about acquisitions involving Wheeler, Diaz, and/or Noah Syndergaard, and employees of rival clubs have informed the reporter that all three are expected to be moved before the July 31st trade deadline.

While an exit may be imminent for the recently recuperated Wheeler and the flamethrowing Diaz, the merit of packaging the two together is, at first glance, dubious. For one thing, with such a large number of clubs involved in the postseason running, it is hard to imagine that either Wheeler or Diaz could not, on their own, net at least a top-30 prospect or two. Secondly, we often see clubs package players as a means of jettisoning undesirable contracts, as was the case with Diaz’ arrival in New York. However, neither Wheeler nor Diaz are attached to burdensome contracts, and one could argue that a trade return on either player would be best maximized in isolated dealings with rival clubs, wherein their individual asset values could be more easily agreed upon.

While it is true that Wheeler’s ho-hum results and impending free agency limit his appeal, his lack of a long-term deal could also be seen as a limitation of risk–if he doesn’t perform well down the stretch, an acquiring club can simply walk away in the offseason. With Diaz, one has to respect that a great deal of his 4.81 ERA is allowable, partly, to a sky-high .407 BABIP. He only enters arbitration next year for the first time, which, despite his 2019 struggles, should make him the more desirable of these two players–this is the same player, after all, that was supposed to provide solace in dealing with the back portion of Robinson Cano’s monstrous $240MM contract. Diaz’ inclusion in yet another package deal, wherein his value is somewhat harder to determine, may make Mets fans feel justifiably queasy.

Meanwhile, in a piece of Mets reportage which runs somewhat contrary to this Sherman piece, Newsday’s Tim Healey relays that his sources within the New York organization are indicating that they fully expect to retain Syndergaard past the deadline (link). The report is relatively sparse on details, but it does suggest–especially when paired with this Wheeler/Diaz news–that the club is indeed more focused on trade permutations involving those latter players.

Latest On Marcus Stroman

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The Dodgers, according to an interesting piece of scuttlebutt from The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, are “considering” adding a starting pitcher via the trade market, and sources have indicated that Marcus Stroman is among their leading targets. According to this report, the team would transfer a current starter to the bullpen if they acquired someone of Stroman’s ilk, thereby circumventing the trade market’s lack of high-impact relief options.

However, the Dodgers may not be able to get their hands on the diminutive righty–at least not if the Astros have anything to say about the matter. According to a separate tweet from Rosenthal, the Astros are “mounting a push” for a Stroman acquisition. Their eagerness toward such a move is said to be motivated, in part, by a reluctance to meet New York’s asking price for Noah Syndergaard.

At this point, rehashing the relative merits of Stroman seems like a bit of a Sisyphean task: we know that the Toronto-grown pitcher is enjoying a nice 2019 season (3.52 FIP in 124.2 innings); we know, also, that he is rebounding from a somewhat fluky run of poor results in 2018 (5.54 ERA vs. 3.91 FIP in 102.1 innings last year); and, alas, we understand that he is earning an eminently affordable sum of $7.4MM this year, with a fourth and final year of arbitration control remaining in 2020.

What is more germane to the conversation here is the insight offered into the trade deadline strategy of two respectively powerful clubs. The Dodgers, an organization never unwilling to stockpile big league depth, would add Stroman to a largely effective mix of pitchers; on the year, their starters have logged a 4.02 ERA–good enough for ninth in the bigs in this homer-happy 2019. However, adding a durable arm like Stroman, as noted above, would allow them to circuitously improve their bullpen. Kenta Maeda, for one, was an interesting option out of the bullpen last year and could shift there once more; alternatively, the Dodgers could choose to simply rest the powerful-yet-young right arm of one Walker Buehler in a gear-up for the postseason. Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Stroman, and Ross Stripling would certainly make for an extremely intimidating playoff staff.

The Astros, meanwhile, have been involved in rotation-centric trade rumors for quite some time, despite their staff’s fourth-ranked 3.79 collective ERA. This news, as much as anything, gives further credence to the idea that New York is mounting sky-high demands for Syndergaard, and that teams like Houston may begin shifting attention to Stroman as a more cost-friendly alternative. Adding Stroman would obviously be a coup for any postseason-seeking squad, and one has to wonder if the Astros’ strong interest isn’t spurred partly by an interest in 2020. With Gerrit Cole looming on the precipice of free agency, the club may be looking to shore up its potential for this year and beyond.

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