Archives for 2019

Yankees Acquire Brian Navarreto From Twins

By Steve Adams | July 25, 2019 at 11:15am CDT

The Yankees have acquired minor league catcher Brian Navarreto from the Twins in exchange for cash considerations, as first reported by Mariana Guzman (Twitter links). He’ll give the club some depth with Gary Sanchez on the injured list.

Obviously, this minor swap isn’t of the magnitude that most fans would hope with Major League Baseball’s trade deadline just around the corner, but adding some low-cost depth to help cover current injury troubles is a logical course of action for the Yankees. For the Twins, they have multiple minor league catchers ahead of Navarreto on the organizational depth chart.

Navarreto, 24, was Minnesota’s sixth-round pick back in 2012. He’s a quintessential glove-first backstop, as evidenced by a whopping 47 percent caught-stealing rate and consistently strong framing marks in his minor league career. He’s enjoyed a modest bump in power this season but has been a poor hitter overall — both in 2019 and throughout his minor league tenure. Navarreto is a lifetime .215/.265/.308 hitter in the minor leagues, including a lackluster .177/.229/.331 slash (five home runs, five doubles) in 140 plate appearances at the Double-A level this season.

Derek Falvey Further Discusses Twins’ Deadline Planning

By Jeff Todd | July 25, 2019 at 9:29am CDT

Adding to his recent comments, Twins chief baseball officer Derek Falvey chatted with reporters yesterday about his organization’s upcoming deadline plans, as Dan Hayes of The Athletic was among those to cover (subscription link). While Falvey didn’t signal a particular inclination to part with top prospect assets, he also made clear that the team wasn’t taking anything off the table in advance.

“We always have to be factoring all of the variables in the equation,” said Falvey, “and I wouldn’t rule out any particular asset we have in our organization.”

Falvey’s previous comments seemingly hinted at a relatively modest slate of pursuits. He had indicated that any new acquisitions would be supplementary to the existing roster core. But the latest tea leaves leave more room to read in the possibility of relatively significant additions.

The Twins obviously believe that they have a serious opportunity to make noise down the stretch and into the postseason. Falvey indicates that he sees the club as one of the top outfits in the American League. And he adds that owner Jim Pohlad is willing to boost spending to give the Twins “what we need” to improve down the stretch.

Pohlad’s own prior comments indicated that he was more inclined to dedicate payroll than to part with young talent. Even if the Twins aren’t declaring any untouchables, they’ll also be sure to explore every avenue before parting with players they think could one day be core assets. That’s particularly true when it comes to trade targets that do not come with any future value.

“Everything’s about the cost of acquisition,” Falvey explains. “Would we consider rentals? Certainly. But I would say that we obviously are going to be thoughtful about how much future value you’re giving up for that type of asset. Some of the early focus might be more on longer-term, controlled players, but we’re certainly going to look at the rental options, too.”

It’s rather evident from the outside both that the Twins have a legitimate shot at a special season and that they’re in need of some improvements. After dropping two of three in a competitive series with the powerful Yankees, the Minnesota club owns a two-game advantage over a rising Indians club that has owned the division of late. More than anything, the Twins could stand to add arms in multiple places. In particular, improving the high-leverage relief unit could make a big difference down the stretch and into a hopeful postseason run.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Mike Moustakas

By Jeff Todd | July 25, 2019 at 8:45am CDT

You already know the essentials here. Mike Moustakas has twice entered the open market in apparent position to secure a strong, multi-year contract. And he has twice come away with a one-year pillow deal (in each case involving a mutual option that mostly functions to defer some salary). As he closes in on his 31st birthday at the tail end of the 2019 season, Moustakas is still playing well. Can he finally hit it big in free agency? Or will he again be forced to go year-to-year?

When Moustakas first prepared for free agency, entering his age-29 season, he seemed a good bet for a rather hefty contract. He had bounced back well from an injury-limited 2016 campaign; rejecting a qualifying offer was a foregone conclusion. Last winter, the value was down a bit, as were the expectations, but Moustakas still seemed to carry the profile of a player that could hold down regular playing time for a contender. He got a bigger contract, but only a single-season promise.

Fool me once, fool me twice … how about a third time? If the season ended today, I’d be on board once again with predicting multiple seasons at a strong salary. His prior forays may not have ended as hoped, but Moustakas has now twice disproved the doubters. He’s much the same player as ever … thus knocking down some of the biggest questions raised. And there are also some notable shifts in his profile that enhance his appeal.

Offensively, Moustakas hasn’t undergone any reinventions. Instead, he has more or less been the best possible version of himself in 2019. His 123 wRC+ matches his career-best mark from his breakout 2015 season. He’s still tough to strike out (16.8%) and is sporting a career-best 8.3% walk rate. Moose is stinging the ball (career-best 43.0% hard-hit rate) and spraying it to all fields more than ever, even while carrying a career-best .276 isolated power mark and setting a pace to challenge his personal-high of 38 home runs (he has 26 through 410 plate appearances).

Even if we bake in a bit of regression, we’re looking at a pretty strong baseline here. Moustakas has been about 15% better than the league-average hitter over nearly a five-year span. He has stayed in range of that performance level, establishing quite a consistent path. And he has even ironed out his platoon splits this year, performing a touch better against left-handed pitching than against righties. That shift actually accounts for most of Moustakas’s overall improvement at the plate and could be an interesting development in its own right, though it’s tough to assess whether it’s sustainable. The cherry on top offensively? Moustakas appears to be executing better on the bases, with Fangraphs’ BsR grading him as an approximately average runner this season after panning him in some prior campaigns.

And that’s all before we get to the most interesting aspect of Moustakas … his sudden and surprising defensive versatility. He has typically graded well at third base, so it isn’t as if the glove was ever considered a weakness. But there was concern that we were seeing the beginning of a downturn when Moustakas drew negative metrics in 2017, even though he bounced back to average last year. There never seemed to be much hope that he’d expand his repertoire.

As it turns out, the Brewers had other ideas … and they were pretty good ones. The club made the bold move of signing Moustakas with full intentions of deploying him at second base. As things have shaken out, he has split his time between second and his accustomed hot corner. And … Moustakas has thrived at both, grading as a net positive at his new spot and turning in revived marks from both UZR and DRS at third base.

Any other questions? How about durability and conditioning? The torn ACL that ended Moustakas’s ’16 campaign is fully healed. He has never had trouble staying on the field otherwise. While he’s still not speedy, Moustakas has restored his average sprint speed to pre-2016 levels and improved his home-to-first time in successive seasons (by measure of Statcast). Scouts throwing shade at his dad bod may well be humming a different tune this winter. By measure of the eye test, at least, Moustakas is carrying a relatively svelte physique at the moment.

Moustakas will always be more moose than antelope, but he’s also forcing us to reevaluate what such a creature can do on a ballfield. Right now, Moustakas is maximizing his tools offensively, smoothing some rough edges to various aspects of his game, and showing enhanced defensive value and roster versatility. There are some quality infielders on the upcoming market, most notably hot corner stalwarts Anthony Rendon and Josh Donaldson, but there should still be plenty of places for Moustakas to land. While he’ll obviously be entering free agency at a more advanced age than he did in his two prior experiences, the third trip might well end up being his most lucrative.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Jon Daniels On Availability Of Mike Minor, Lance Lynn

By Jeff Todd | July 25, 2019 at 6:38am CDT

We’re clearly past wondering whether the Rangers will enter the deadline in position to pursue a 2019 postseason spot, with the club collapsing out of range of plausible contention. But that doesn’t mean it’s obvious how the organization will handle trade talks in the coming days.

Rangers president of baseball operations Jon Daniels will have to decide whether to pursue trades involving several players who could be of future use in Texas. Outfielder Nomar Mazara has popped up on the rumor mill, as has reliever Jose Leclerc. It’s interesting to wonder about those talented younger players, neither of whom has performed to expectations this year, but they aren’t the club’s most intriguing deadline candidates. That status belongs instead to veteran starters Mike Minor and Lance Lynn.

Appearing on 105.3 The Fan’s Ben and Skin Show (transcript via the Dallas Morning News), Daniels discussed a variety of topics of hot-stove interest. But his comments on Minor and Lynn are most noteworthy given the still-uncertain status of this summer’s starting pitching market.

Daniels made clear that the Texas club values these pitchers “at a very high level.” He provided support for that position by observing: “You’ve got guys that are performing at a high level, that are filling a need that we need now and we’re going to need going forward. We need more pitching, not less ultimately.”

There’s plenty of truth in that statement, even if the Rangers have to listen to offers. (Daniels has already said they will.) This is a club that’s opening a new ballpark next year — “ultimately people come to see the team on the field,” Daniels noted while discussing the impact of the stadium — and has elected not to launch a full-throated rebuild. While the 2019 Opening Day payroll sat lower than at any point since 2011, it still checked in at levels that would cause some small-market clubs heart palpitations ($118MM).

The Texas club is obviously interested in putting a good product on the field year after year. And there’s no doubting the roster’s dire need for starting pitching. Parting with good starting pitching (with future contract control) would open a hole that’ll need to be filled somehow.

True, the Rangers can go out looking for the next versions of Minor and Lynn. They’ll probably do so regardless. But it’s awfully tough to assume that they’ll have near as much success with their next buy-low, three-year contract as they have with their prior two. Minor ($28MM) and Lynn ($30MM) inked near-identical deals in successive winters, with the Rangers luring both with longer deals than many anticipated while promising limited average annual salaries. They’ve each been among the game’s most productive starters this year.

It’s certainly plenty appealing to hang onto these hurlers and continue to hope they provide good value over the remaining years on their contracts. (With one season remaining for Minor and two for Lynn, speculation has mostly focused on the former, though that doesn’t necessarily reflect the preferences of interested teams.) On the other hand, both are over thirty years of age with somewhat worrying injury histories. And market circumstances could align to create rather significant interest, particularly if other quality starters end up carrying audacious price tags.

Given the competing considerations, Daniels says, the Rangers won’t be moving off of their own lofty valuations on these hurlers. If the club ends up dealing one or both, he suggests, we’ll know why as soon as the swap is reported: “If we ultimately get to a place where we’re going to consider moving any of our big-league pitchers, it’s going to be because it clearly makes sense to do so. I think the return will speak for itself.”

Yankees Rumors: Bauer, Bumgarner, Syndergaard, Wheeler

By Connor Byrne | July 25, 2019 at 1:44am CDT

The Yankees and Twins, two American League powers, staged a memorable three-game battle in Minnesota this week. This round went to the Yankees, who took two of three in an offense-driven set that saw the Bombers live up to their name in outscoring the Twins 30-27.

While the Yankees are now a major league-best 66-35, they’re surely not thrilled with the way their somewhat maligned pitching staff performed against the high-powered Twins. Starters C.C. Sabathia, Domingo German and J.A. Happ were among Yankees hurlers who took beatings, which could intensify the club’s efforts to improve its rotation before the July 31 trade deadline. That remains general manager Brian Cashman’s primary focus, according to Bryan Hoch of MLB.com.

Over the past several weeks, the Yankees have been connected to just about every top starter potentially available – including the Indians’ Trevor Bauer, the Giants’ Madison Bumgarner, and the Mets’ Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler.

Bauer is near the top of the Yankees’ wish list, per Hoch, who reports they “would love” to see Cleveland make him available. Indians general manager Mike Chernoff seemingly hasn’t closed the door on a Bauer trade, but parting with him would be an unexpected move from a Tribe team that has overcome a difficult start to climb into playoff position. The Indians are 59-42, two games up on the AL’s No. 1 wild-card spot and just two back of the Twins, thanks in part to Bauer. The 28-year-old has racked up a major league-high 152 1/3 innings of 3.49 ERA/4.19 FIP pitching with 10.58 K/9 against 3.49 BB/9.

Like Bauer, Bumgarner’s perhaps an indispensable piece to a team that has emerged as a playoff hopeful. Bumgarner looked like a surefire trade candidate all season until the red-hot Giants won 17 of 21 in recent weeks. They’re currently 52-51 and three back of a wild card. The future of Bumgarner, a Giants icon, looks much more up in the air as a result. Regardless, it doesn’t seem as if Bumgarner – who has the Yankees on his limited no-trade list – is New York’s preferred choice. “Yankees people are said to be less enthused with” Bumgarner than Bauer, Hoch writes.

Meanwhile, Hoch relays that the belief is the Mets are uninterested in dealing with the crosstown rival Yankees at all, no matter what they might offer for Syndergaard or Wheeler. That would be unfortunate for the Yankees, who may be the team with the most interest in Syndergaard and would reportedly be willing to trade their premier prospect, Deivi Garcia, for him. As a soon-to-be free agent who’s about to return from a multi-week absence stemming from a shoulder injury, Wheeler has far less trade value than Syndergaard. Andy Martino of SNY reported three weeks ago that the Mets were open to sending Wheeler – then healthy – to the Bronx, but that might not be the case after all.

Even if the Yankees don’t end up with Bauer, Bumgarner, Syndergaard or Wheeler, they do seem likely to strengthen their rotation this month. After Minnesota shredded its staff this week, New York’s starters rank a middling to worse 15th in ERA, 16th in fWAR and 21st in FIP. Nobody from the group has produced truly great numbers, either. Masahiro Tanaka, James Paxton and German have posted low-four ERAs with aligning peripherals, while Sabathia and Happ have performed like back-end options at best.

One would be remiss to ignore that the Yankees have gone without their ace – Luis Severino – all season because of shoulder and lat injuries. While the Yankees are hopeful the star righty will return in mid to late August, which could provide an enormous boost, it’s unknown whether Severino will be able to go full bore at any point this year. Cashman suggested two weeks ago that Severino could max out at 75 pitches or even work as a reliever. Severino’s ongoing absence has thrown a massive wrench in the Yankees’ plans this year, and it could have a big hand in the club landing an outside starter.

Quick Hits: Dodgers, Giants, Cubs, Sogard, Yanks, White Sox

By Connor Byrne | July 25, 2019 at 12:30am CDT

As was the case a couple weeks ago, the Dodgers are “quite interested” in multiple Giants relievers, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets. Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported July 10 that Will Smith, Sam Dyson, Tony Watson and Reyes Moronta were on the Dodgers’ radar. At that point, San Francisco owned a 41-48 record and looked as if it was sure to sell prior to the trade deadline. However, the Giants were in the early stages of an out-of-nowhere tear that has continued, putting them at 52-51 and calling into question whether they’ll trade any of their top chips in the next week. Even if they do, there’s no guarantee the Giants will deal with the archrival Dodgers, despite the connection between SF president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and LA president Andrew Friedman. Zaidi was Friedman’s top lieutenant with the Dodgers from 2014-18.

Ivan Nova: Trade Candidate?

By Connor Byrne | July 24, 2019 at 11:21pm CDT

This has been a season to forget for veteran right-hander Ivan Nova, whom the White Sox acquired from the Pirates last winter to competently soak up innings. It wasn’t an unreasonable expectation on Chicago’s part that Nova would provide its rotation with some much-needed stability. After all, Nova was coming off three straight seasons in which he amassed 160-plus frames and recorded an ERA in the low fours. That type of production would’ve been welcome for this year’s White Sox, who have gotten very little from any starter except Lucas Giolito. That includes the 32-year-old Nova, their leader in starts (21) and innings (119 2/3).

Even after firing a one-run complete game against the Marlins on Monday, Nova has only managed a 5.49 ERA/5.34 FIP this season. And yet, despite the immense difficulties Nova has encountered in 2019, he seems to be garnering interest from elsewhere with the trade deadline a week away. “Many scouts” have been “looking at” the struggling Nova, according to Joe Frisaro of MLB.com, while Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times also identifies him as a potential trade chip.

When it comes to starters, pitchers the caliber of Madison Bumgarner, Trevor Bauer and Marcus Stroman tend to monopolize the headlines at this time of year. Back-end innings eaters do have value to teams pushing for playoff spots, though, which could make Nova movable for the White Sox. The problem is that the 2019 version of Nova hasn’t fit the bill. Even looking past Nova’s shoddy run prevention, there isn’t much to like aside from a low walk rate (2.33 BB/9) and a solid groundball percentage (47.0). His home run-to-fly ball rate, 19.5, ranks fifth worst among 75 qualified starters. His strikeout rate, 5.79 per nine, sits third from the bottom. Furthermore, just 14 starters have posted a worse swinging-strike rate (9.0 percent).

Statcast doesn’t care for the Chicago iteration of Nova, either. In fact, he doesn’t check in any better than the majors’ 37th percentile in mean fastball velocity (92.3 mph), strikeout percentage, exit velocity, hard-hit rate against, expected batting average, expected slugging percentage or expected weighted on-base average. While Nova’s .357 xwOBA is better than the J.D. Martinez-esque .370 real wOBA that hitters have pummeled him for, it’s not by much.

Based on what Nova has done this year, the soon-to-be free agent doesn’t appear capable of boosting anyone’s rotation down the stretch. But could he aid a team in a relief role? It doesn’t look like it. Batters have smacked Nova for a .361 wOBA the first time through the order, with righties (.367) and lefties (.365) abusing him to near-matching degrees. Nova also isn’t cheap – he’s making $8.5MM, roughly $3MM of which is still on the way – so Chicago will likely have to eat most or all of his salary to have any hope of dealing him. Even if the White Sox do that, they may have trouble finding a taker.

Latest On Braves’ Jacob Webb

By Connor Byrne | July 24, 2019 at 10:26pm CDT

Atlanta’s bullpen is one of the few legitimate areas of concern for the first-place club as the July 31 trade deadline approaches. The Braves, cognizant they’re in need of upgrades, have been connected to Blue Jays closer Ken Giles, Orioles right-hander Mychal Givens and multiple White Sox relievers on the rumor mill in recent days, and there are likely more late-game arms on the team’s radar.

The Braves are in search of help because they haven’t gotten nearly enough from the majority of their current options. Of their healthy arms, only Luke Jackson, Anthony Swarzak and Sean Newcomb have posted high-quality numbers over at least 20 innings of work apiece. Right-hander Jacob Webb has also been eminently productive, having notched a tremendous 1.39 ERA through 32 1/3 frames, but the 25-year-old rookie hasn’t been a factor in recent weeks. Webb has totaled a mere three innings this month and hasn’t pitched since July 12 on account of an elbow impingement, and it doesn’t appear he’ll return to the Braves’ bullpen in the immediate future. Manager Brian Snitker indicated Wednesday that Webb’s set to miss “at least a couple more weeks,” Mark Bowman of MLB.com writes.

The latest news on Webb could further galvanize the Braves to bolster their bullpen in the next week. However, they’d have likely tried to do so even had he stayed healthy. The Braves are atop the NL East East at 60-43, meaning they don’t have to pick up anyone, but their lead has dwindled to 4 1/2 over the Nationals – whom they play 10 more times. Three of those games will take place next week, but the Braves won’t have Webb available for any of them.

Depending on the stats you look at, Webb may have been either supremely lucky or just flat-out excellent prior to landing on the IL. ERA indicators FIP (4.31), xFIP (5.14) and SIERA (4.54) suggest Webb has no business sporting such a pristine ERA, and his strikeout, walk and groundball rates (7.79 K/9, 3.34 BB/9, 38.2 GB%) also paint a somewhat gloomy picture.

On the other hand, the hard-throwing Webb has been a wiz at preventing meaningful contact this season. Among 168 relievers who have thrown at least 30 innings, Webb checks in at 17th in infield fly percentage (17.5). He also ranks near the top of the league in several Statcast categories, including expected weighted on-base average against. Hitters have mustered a weak .287 wOBA off Webb, which aligns with an even better .281 xwOBA. Webb’s first among Braves relievers in the former category, while only Jackson has outdone him in the latter.

Yankees Have Interest In Mike Minor

By Jeff Todd | July 24, 2019 at 9:55pm CDT

WEDNESDAY: New York’s “not very involved” in the Minor derby, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets.

MONDAY: As they continue to weigh a variety of possible pitching additions, the Yankees are taking a look at Rangers lefty Mike Minor, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link). But that interest comes with a few complications.

The Yanks are one of ten teams to which Minor can block a swap pursuant to his contract, per Rosenthal. Minor’s willingness to waive his rights isn’t known, but he certainly doesn’t sound particularly anxious to leave town.

Minor’s continued strong work makes his contract rights quite appealing. He’s earning just $9.5MM this year and next, making the 31-year-old a cost-efficient target. Pinching pennies isn’t strictly necessary for the Yankees, but the organization is as aware of value concepts as any and has an obvious desire to avoid unnecessary luxury tax complications (now and in the future).

It’s not surprising, then, that the Bronx Bombers have sent notable front-office member Tim Naehring out to see Minor’s past two outings. That could be interpreted as a tell, though Rosenthal rightly points out that Naehring and the team’s other trusted evaluators have also put in plenty of time watching other arms as well.

It is still tough to guess just what direction the Yankees will take. If Luis Severino is able to make it back, even if not in a full-blown starter’s capacity, the club will have enviable depth with James Paxton and Domingo German featuring as capable postseason starters and a variety of other multi-inning hurlers on hand. It could certainly stand to add a marquee arm to front the staff, but it’s fair to wonder if that’s really what Minor is. There’s unquestionably a rotation need in 2020 as well, but perhaps that shouldn’t be the priority right now. The price for Minor will be steep — in addition to other demand, the Rangers will value his rights for next season — and there is an argument to be made that the Yanks ought instead to utilize their resources on other targets, either posting less in prospect value for a rental hurler or somehow concocting a bigger move for a truly top-shelf starter.

Matt Klentak On Phillies’ Deadline Approach

By Jeff Todd | July 24, 2019 at 9:44pm CDT

Phillies GM Matt Klentak discussed the organizational mindset as the trade deadline draws near, as Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia reports. He largely echoed the recent comments of club president Andy MacPhail in emphasizing a realistic assessment of the team’s chances.

It seems notable, then, that the outlook is generally becoming sunnier in Philadelphia. The Phils have picked up their play since we examined whether a win-now deadline strategy was advisable for the organization, taking five of their last six games. That doesn’t mean they’re a strong favorite for the division, but the Wild Card is firmly in play and there would seem to be added impetus for notable deadline acquisitions — particularly if the club takes advantage of a weekend series in Atlanta.

Klentak says that the club must “recognize where we are and we have to make moves that are appropriate” to the place in the standings. While the team’s “core players” will dictate the outcome through their performance, says Klentak, the front office is “legitimately looking for opportunities” to buttress the existing roster.

While these comments convey a sense of sober analysis — a notable change from the club’s memorable, unofficial offseason slogan — they surely don’t preclude significant moves. “I feel like our organization has enough talent that we can bid on the top names on the market,” says Klentak, though he adds that “whether we choose to go down that road or not remains to be seen.”

Like any team, the Phillies are looking to strike a balance. Like MacPhail, Klentak evinced an aversion to parting with valuable prospect capital. While that’s obviously always going to be necessary to some degree for a contending team, Klentak says it’s an organizational imperative “to preserve young talent” and avoid the need “to tackle another rebuild at some point” — which, he says, is “not something that our owners or our front office have an appetite for.”

It very nearly goes without saying that all of this reasoning seems to have the big-budget Phillies pointed toward opportunities to improve by means of the bank vault, rather than the farm. There is, however, a point at which the organization will need to watch its payroll as well. The club is already committed to over $110MM next year and more than $90MM in the ensuing season, all before accounting for arbitration spending, extensions, or new acquisitions. Adding to this year’s payroll, which opened at about $140MM, is also a possibility, though teams carrying high-cost players have already ponied up most of what’s due.

Klentak didn’t get into areas of need, but as Salisbury notes, there are quite a few. There’s clearly room to add multiple hurlers and it’s not hard at all to imagine new bats slotting into the infield and/or outfield mix. In some ways, the variety and degree of the places for improvement should help the Phillies find value at the deadline — particularly in the rental market. And it’s worth remembering that the team can look to the near future as a means of justifying new acquisitions. Adding a controllable player or two that fits the 2020 roster would not just improve the team now but help account for openings that will ultimately need to be filled somehow, if not by an offseason trade then by a free-agent move that comes with the possibility of long-term salary entanglements.

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