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Quick Hits: Red Sox, Bloom, KBO, Kim, Reds

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With the offseason now firmly underway, let’s survey the baseball landscape with a few brief Saturday notes…

  • For Red Sox fans eager to gain an inkling as to how their team’s front office might behave under new chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, it might be worth reading Jen McCaffrey’s latest work for The Athletic, in which she uses Tampa Bay’s moves in 2019 as a blueprint for how Bloom might operate in Boston. The Rays, of course, overcame one of baseball’s smallest payrolls and took the Astros to five games in the ALDS, while the Red Sox missed out on the postseason entirely despite a comparatively astronomical payroll. Boston can expect Bloom to deploy many of the same strategies that brought success to Tampa, though he’ll of course have a greater bank of resources at his disposal. One might liken Bloom to the Dodgers’ Andrew Friedman, another former Rays exec who inherited a big-market budget when he was hired to spearhead the Dodgers’ baseball operations.
  • A flurry of teams sent scouts to watch Kwang-hyun Kim of the KBO’s SK Wyverns, according to Dan Kurtz of MyKBO. Scouts from more than ten teams—including the Padres, Twins, and Dodgers, among others—were recently spotted at one of Kim’s games. Though he hasn’t yet been posted, Kim has expressed his desire to play in the Majors in 2020, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, who also reports that his club is “weighing its options” regarding Kim’s posting. A 31-year-old lefty, Kim logged a 2.51 ERA in 190 1/3 innings of work in the 2019 KBO season, striking out 180 batters while walking just 38. He’s had previous opportunities to play stateside, most notably in 2014 when he and the Padres failed to agree on a contract. He could slot in as a mid-tier free agent option for clubs unwilling to pony up the money necessary to pursue the top options on the market.
  • The Reds have hired a new assistant pitching coordinator, with Eric Jagers announcing on Twitter that he’ll join the Reds staff after a year in the Phillies organization. With the Phillies, Jagers worked in the minor league player development department, filling a new position in the organization as a pitch strategist. He broke into the MLB coaching scene after cutting his teeth as Driveline Baseball’s pitching coordinator. Notably, with the Reds he’ll work alongside another Driveline alum, Kyle Boddy, who founded the company and parlayed its success into a position as the Reds’ pitching coordinator. The addition of Jagers continues the organizational overhaul of its pitching infrastructure, which began with the team’s hiring of Derek Johnson, who coached the club to the National League’s fourth-lowest ERA in 2019.

Marcell Ozuna “Very Unlikely” To Accept Qualifying Offer

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Free agent outfielder Marcell Ozuna is “very unlikely” to accept the $17.8MM qualifying offer made to him by the Cardinals, reports MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. Ozuna was seen as one of the few recipients who could consider accepting the one-year deal, but Heyman suggests that there is a robust market for Ozuna’s services.

While it was perhaps never likely that Ozuna would take the qualifying offer to stick around in St. Louis for another year, he stood out as one of the ten QO recipients who could be a candidate to accept in lieu of entering the open market. Ozuna’s retractors might pin the outfielder as one of the hitters who could suffer most in baseball’s notoriously stingy free agency; as a solid but unspectacular hitter who won’t carry a lineup and who doesn’t stand out on defense, critics might put him in Mike Moustakas territory.

That’s not to say he doesn’t offer any value. Ozuna is just two years removed from a breakout season in Miami’s pitcher-friendly ballpark. While he’s no longer the Gold Glover he was in 2017, Ozuna still grades out solidly as a defensive outfielder. By free agent standards, he’s on the younger side, and there’s reason to believe that he’s capable of more than the .241/.328/.472 line he posted in his second year in St. Louis; his .382 expected wOBA far outclassed his actual .336 mark, suggesting that Ozuna’s true talent level is a notch above his Cardinals output.

Assuming that Ozuna indeed elects to hit free agency, it’s not a foregone conclusions that the 28-year-old will play in a new uniform next year. Ozuna has expressed his desire to remain with the Cardinals, and while the organization has been less steadfast in their interest, it has been recently reported that the two sides are prepared to discuss a multiyear contract. By virtue of extending the QO, the club has demonstrated a willingness to keep Ozuna at a considerable cost, but only for one year—we’ll see how far they’re willing to go on a multiyear commitment.

Otherwise, Ozuna will reach free agency for the first time with a compensatory draft pick attached to him. We’ve seen in recent years that this additional price has been a deterrent for mid-range free agents, and Ozuna’s market will no doubt take a hit as a result, though to what extent it’s not clear. Regardless of the draft pick, Ozuna has plenty of desirable qualities that should make him an attractive target to a flurry of clubs, like Heyman notes; MLBTR projects Ozuna to receive a three year, $45MM contract—while that’s a lower projection that other outlets, such a deal would still give Ozuna the second-highest payday among free agent corner outfielders (behind only Nick Castellanos).

Orioles Seeking Veteran Shortstop And Pitching Depth

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The Baltimore Orioles primary goal for the near-term remains adding as much talent to the organization as possible, primarily in the minor leagues. That said, GM Mike Elias does have a winter checklist in this, his first full offseason as GM  (the Orioles hired him on November 16th of last year). Namely, the Orioles will be looking for pitching and a veteran shortstop, per MASNSports’ Roch Kubatko.

While still in the infancy of their rebuild, the Orioles do not plan to shop in the premium aisles of the free agent market, but adding free agent talent is as much about protecting the organization’s youngsters as it is about the talent influx itself. Said Elias, “…we want to have more depth than we went into last year in the event that injuries occur, that we can protect our young pitching prospects who will be coming up.”

The Orioles first have to decide which of their own players to protect before the Rule 5 draft, and with rosters expanding to 26 players this season, teams could use the extra roster spot to be more aggressive in the Rule 5 draft, as the Orioles themselves were last year in keeping shortstop Richie Martin on the roster. It was a tough campaign for Martin, who authored a .208/.260/.322 line across 355 plate appearances, likely ticketing him for extended time in the minor leagues in 2020 now that he is officially a part of the Baltimore organization. Martin’s example is the reason Baltimore will emphasize adding depth this winter, both on the hill and at shortstop, so that they are not forced to rush further prospects before they are ready.

Jonathan Villar is the only rostered player who saw significant time at shortstop last season, almost equally splitting his time between second and short. Hanser Alberto covers second and has spent some time at shortstop in the past, but the Orioles roster is devoid of middle infield depth beyond those two, assuming a Martin demotion.

Trevor Bauer Explores Different Agency Experience, Becomes First Client Of Luba Sports

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Enigmatic hurler Trevor Bauer has left the Wasserman Media Group to become the first client of Luba Sports, per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. Luba Sports is a new sports agency started by Rachel Luba, who officially became certified as an MLB agent on November 1st. Luba Sports will make up just one part of Bauer’s new representation, however. Bauer hired another certified MLB agent, Jon Fetterolf, a litigator from Zuckerman Spaeder who has a history of assisting agents in arbitration proceedings.

Bauer had no qualms with his previous agency, who did, after all, help him win consecutive arbitration cases against the Cleveland Indians, but at this stage in his career, he’s looking not only at his own upcoming arbitration case, but at the system as a whole. Surprise surprise, but the innovative and free-thinking Bauer has eyes towards making a difference for the betterment of players. Still, Bauer makes a point not to disparage the Wasserman Media Group or the current system. Rather, he aims to give players another option of representation moving forward

As such, the structure of representation set up between Bauer, Luba, and Fetterolf differs from the standard practice in baseball, in which players typically pay 5% of their salaries to their agents upon reaching the majors. Instead, Fetterolf will make a lower commission (1.5 to 2.5%) that differs depending on the player’s career status, plus an hourly rate. Still, the overall fee caps at 5% for an arbitration-eligible player and 4% for a free agent. Depending on the hourly workload, then, players have the potential to pay a good deal less under this structure.

The goal of this system would be to allow players to pay strictly for services rendered, thereby allowing a more personalized agency experience. Rather than being locked into the commission model, an “a la carte” system gives players the option of paying less for fewer services (or paying more for more). This would not wholly upend the player-agent relationship, though it does provide an interesting opportunity for players to reconsider the current structure and explore a system that might work more in their favor. It’s certainly on brand for Bauer to push for this type of innovation, and it will be interesting to follow the extent to which Luba Sports or similar agencies can make inroads with the MLB player community.

Bauer and Luba’s relationship dates back to their days as undergraduates at UCLA when they met in a communication studies class. Luba would go on to become an attorney and work for the players’ union during the 2018 arbitration season. She would be offered a position as an agent with another agency, but chose to forge her own path instead.

The timing here, of course, is not coincidental as Bauer prepares for his final time through arbitration this winter. MLB Contributor Matt Swartz projects Bauer to earn $18.6MM with the Reds this season.

Astros Promote Owner’s Son Jared Crane To Executive Team

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The Astros moved some pieces around in their front office recently, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle. With an eye towards succession, Astros owner Jim Crane has moved his son Jared Crane into a position to oversee the club’s business operations.

Longtime team president Reid Ryan has been moved out of the role and into a different position within the organization as Executive Advisor of Business Relations. The organization says Ryan will remain “an important part of the Astros organization,” though they’ve also said that he will have more time to explore other opportunities. All in all, the shift from Ryan to Crane seems a significant change for both parties.

Ryan, of course, is the son of Hall of Famer Nolan Ryan. The elder Ryan has been an advisor to the team for the past six seasons, but his role has expired and he is not expected to continue on with the team.

This all comes on the heels of an unfortunate situation surrounding former assistant GM Brandon Taubman, but the team insists this shakeup has nothing to do with the handling of Taubman’s situation. Instead, the move is part of a long-term plan by owner and chairman Jim Crane to move his son into an increased role with the team.

Payroll Notes: Diamondbacks, Cubs, Mariners

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Zack Greinke is off the books. Ill-fated Cuban signee Yasmany Tomas will be off the books after next season. The Diamondbacks avoided doubling-down with pricey extensions for former core performers Paul Goldschmidt, Patrick Corbin, and A.J. Pollock. Arizona GM Mike Hazen sloughed the necessary financial weight to put the Dbacks in the unfamiliar position of having some money to spend, per Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. Per Roster Resource, their 2020 payroll sits at about $109MM, only about $14MM shy of their 2019 opening day figure, but they have significant financial freedom beyond next season, when the only remaining salary obligations belong to underpaid cornerstones Ketel Marte and Eduardo Escobar. Keep an eye out for MLBTR’s Offseason Outlook Series for a further investigation into the Diamondbacks options moving forward. For now, let’s check in elsewhere around the league…

  • The Cubs have a less flexible financial situation at present, and how they maneuver this offseason remains one of the most intriguing questions of the winter. They’re the best team in the NL Central as presently constituted, per Fangraphs’ Craig Edwards, though it surely doesn’t feel like it to Cubs fans after their September collapse. Rumors of significant change continue to swirl, but it’s hard to argue how moving one of their stars like Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, or Javier Baez will improve the team in the short-term, and it’s hard to justify willfully closing the window on the team that won the 2016 championship. And yet, last season’s decline was so thorough the Cubs have to wonder if a managerial change alone is enough to shock The Cubs Way back to life. Moving Kyle Schwarber also isn’t the answer, per NBC Sports Chicago’s Tony Andracki, who makes the case that Schwarber, 27 in March, is entering his prime after finally showing signs of reaching his considerable offensive ceiling in the second half last year. Recent rumblings peg Willson Contreras as the potential moving piece, but trading a potent firecracker like Contreras is a risk. Theo Epstein’s accolades as a cursebreaker are unparalleled, but turning this club back into a true-blue contender might be his biggest career challenge to date.
  • The Mariners should act now to open their competitive window in 2021 by making a run at Gerrit Cole, per The Athletic’s Corey Brock. It makes sense on paper, as Cole makes any rotation look a whole heck of a lot better, though it’s certainly hard to imagine. If the Mariners really do want to contend with the Astros and A’s as early as 2021, a rotation led by Cole, Marco Gonzales and Yusei Kikuchi looks a lot better than a rotation fronted by Gonzalez and Kikuchi alone. The Mariners do have money to spend as well, with just $44MM on the books for 2021, and if Cole is the best free agent pitcher available over, say, the next three offseasons, then it would make sense to make a run at him now. That said, all signs point to a more modest approach from Seattle this winter.

Ryan Tepera Elects Free Agency

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Right-handed reliever Ryan Tepera has elected free agency, according to MLB.com’s transactions page. The Blue Jays designated Tepera on Monday, but because he has more than three years of service time, he was able to reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency.

Tepera enjoyed a long run as a member of the Blue Jays, who chose him in the 19th round of the 2009 draft. He debuted in 2015 and was especially productive from 2016-17, a 142 1/3-inning stretch in which he logged a 3.60 ERA with 9.42 K/9 and 3.48 BB/9, before falling off this season.

Elbow troubles (including late-May surgery) limited Tepera to just 21 2/3 innings in 2019, during which he posted a 4.98 ERA/6.03 FIP with a paltry 5.82 K/9 against 3.32 BB/9. The 32-year-old saw his average fastball velocity drop from the 95 mph range to 93.7 in the process, while his swinging-strike rate fell from 14 percent in 2018 to 12.6 this season. Needless to say, this isn’t an ideal time to reach free agency for Tepera, who had been projected to earn $1.6MM in arbitration before Toronto cut him loose.

Trade Candidate: Jon Gray

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The Rockies are coming off a 71-win season, and even the most optimistic observer would be hard-pressed to expect a major bounce-back effort in 2020. Not only are the Rockies stuck in a division with the juggernaut Dodgers, who figure to rule the NL West yet again next year, but the Rox seemingly aren’t in position to spend their way out of the hole they’ve dug for themselves. Rockies owner Dick Monfort has said the team lacks payroll flexibility, which suggests it won’t be in for an offseason of headline-worthy acquisitions.

[RELATED: Rockies Offseason Outlook]

The Rockies opened this year with a franchise record $145MM-plus in payroll, and they’re already in line for a 2020 outlay in the $160MM range, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource and FanGraphs. At least a small portion of that is slated to belong to right-hander Jon Gray, who MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects will make $5.6MM via arbitration next season. However, considering next year will be Gray’s penultimate season of control, now may be as good a time as any for Colorado to trade him.

Gray, who turned 28 earlier this week, has endured his share of ups and downs since he joined the Rockies as the third overall pick in 2013. His results have alternated between very good (especially for someone stuck pitching half his games in hitter-friendly Colorado) and unspectacular, with Gray’s output this year falling in line more with the first category. He racked up 150 innings of 3.84 ERA/4.06 FIP ball with 9.0 K/9, 3.36 BB/9 and a personal-best 50.4 percent groundball rate. Along the way, Gray posted a career-high 96.1 average mph on his fastball, which ranked in the majors’ 89th percentile, per Statcast.

Aside from his velocity, Gray wasn’t any kind of Statcast hero in 2019, as he finished toward the bottom of the league in most of its key categories. Nevertheless, Gray’s most recent production, his career numbers (4.46 ERA/3.77 FIP with 9.4 K/9, 2.96 BB/9 and a 47.1 percent grounder rate) and his affordability over the next couple years would likely lead to plenty of interest if the Rockies were to place him on the trading block.

With few possible exceptions (Corey Kluber? Matthew Boyd? Chris Archer? Jose Quintana?), this offseason’s class of starters who might be attainable via trade doesn’t look as if it’ll be teeming with front-line potential. Meanwhile, free agency has two obvious aces – Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg – followed by Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner, Hyun-Jin Ryu and a series of flawed choices. It’s possible some starter-needy teams would just assume swing a trade for Gray than pay up for someone like Jake Odorizzi, who’d also cost a draft pick to reel in, or sign another good but unspectacular free agent.

With Gray, it seems the worst-case scenario is that an acquiring team would be picking up a competent mid- to back-end starter who wouldn’t put much of a dent in its payroll. Best case? The hard-throwing Gray morphs into a front-of-the-rotation bargain. With that in mind, it’s easy to imagine a slew of contenders lining up for Gray’s services if the Rockies were to make him available. Colorado owns one of the majors’ least impressive farm systems (per Baseball America), and dealing Gray could help the franchise improve its class of pre-MLB talent. Moreover, the Rockies doesn’t appear likely to contend in 2020, and there hasn’t been any word about a potential Gray extension. All that said, this looks like an opportune time for general manager Jeff Bridich to consider parting with Gray.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Latest On Domingo German

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Yankees right-hander Domingo German enjoyed a quality 2019 season before it ended in undignified fashion in late September. German went on administrative leave under the MLB-MLBPA Joint Domestic Violence Policy, thus preventing him from participating in the Yankees’ playoff series against the Twins and Astros. Although the league still hasn’t interviewed German, a resolution to his case should occur “in a matter of weeks,” not months, Ken Davidoff and Dan Martin of the New York Post write.

As is always the case with a player involved in a domestic issue, it’s up in the air whether his team will welcome him back. However, the Yankees are the same club that acquired closer Aroldis Chapman from the Reds in December 2015 when he was amid serious domestic troubles of his own. The league ultimately suspended Chapman for 30 games to open the 2016 season. Now, regardless of whether the Yankees keep German, he could face a ban to start the 2020 campaign after sitting out the last couple weeks of 2019.

The status of German may help inform the Yankees’ offseason plans, as he was one of the team’s most effective rotation options in 2019. The 27-year-old pitched to a 4.03 ERA/4.72 FIP with 9.63 K/9 against 2.45 BB/9 across 143 innings. The Yankees look like a team in need of starting help right now, and the problems in their rotation will become even more acute if they’re unwilling or unable to pencil German into the group for at least the beginning of next season.

White Sox, Jose Abreu Have Discussed Long-Term Contract

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The White Sox have one particularly notable free agent in first baseman/designated hitter Jose Abreu, who has never looked all that likely to leave the club. Both sides have said time and again that they would like to continue their partnership, and the White Sox protected against Abreu’s exit somewhat by giving him a qualifying offer earlier this week. With that in mind, the Nov. 14 deadline to accept the QO may be moot in the case of Abreu, with whom the White Sox have discussed a long-term contract, Jeff Passan of ESPN reports.

In Abreu’s case, “long term” could be relatively short. After all, he’s a soon-to-be 33-year-old whom MLBTR has re-signing with the White Sox on a two-year, $28MM deal. Even that total looks somewhat generous for a non-elite hitter who brings little to no defensive value to the table. Just last winter, DH Nelson Cruz settled for a one-year, $14.3MM guarantee with the Twins after a somewhat more impressive season than the one Abreu just had. Cruz was then fresh off a .256/.342/.509 season with 37 home runs, whereas Abreu hit .284/.330/.503 with 33 HRs this year.

Despite Abreu’s ab0ve-average contributions at the plate, the White Sox ranked 18th in the majors in wRC+ and 24th in runs this season. They’re clearly a team in need of offensive help if they’re finally going to return to relevance in 2020, so retaining Abreu for a reasonable sum would make sense. Keeping Abreu would at least enable the White Sox to cancel out one potential need area and move on to other business.

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